Background note
Quantifying the impact of rich countries’ policies on poor countries
Experts’ research workshop
Center for Global Development, Washington, DC
October 2003
Nancy Birdsall and Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development (CGD) and Lyn
Squire of the Global Development Network (GDN) will convene an experts’ workshop on
quantifying the impact of developed countries’ policies on developing countries, at CGD in
Washington, on October 23rd and 24th, 2003.
In calling this meeting, we seek to increase knowledge about the “filters” between
developed-country policies and socioeconomic outcomes in developing countries. We will
ask how and to what measurable extent the effects of developed-country policy ripple
through different institutional environments in developing countries to create
socioeconomic change. Policies of interest include decisions taken by rich-country
governments in the areas of foreign aid, trade policy, migration policy, environment, security,
and private investment regulation. By enhancing the collection and analysis of data with
respect to developed-country policies and developing-country sensitivities, this research will
offer an innovative and quantifiable perspective on the imperative for development in an age
of globalization.
We envision this small workshop as an opportunity to present and discuss initial examples of
the kind of research that is needed, and to set the agenda and methodology for a more
comprehensive subsequent research effort to come—in which both CGD and GDN hope
to be deeply involved. The workshop will bring together a group of distinguished scholars at
the frontiers of development research from around the world to discuss the needs for and
feasibility of research on three themes related to measuring the impact of rich countries’
policies on poor countries:
1) Across rich countries: if and how to pursue deeper quantitative research on
measures of “policy effort” in individual rich countries for the benefit of developing
countries as a group. Example: How does Norway compare to other rich countries
in its openness to developing-country exports? What political and institutional
forces in Norway underlie those policies?
2) Across poor countries: how to complement the above with a second measure of
poor-country “sensitivity” to those policies—quantitative studies of the relative
impacts in individual poor countries of the policies of rich countries, jointly and
CGD/GDN experts’ research workshop, page 2 of 3
individually. Example: How does Mali compare to other poor countries in its
sensitivity to different rich countries’ trade policies? Is Mali more sensitive to change
in rich-country aid policy or trade policy? Which political and institutional structures
in Mali contribute to the patterns we observe? What can Mali do to best take
advantage of (or protect itself from) changes in rich countries’ policies?
3) Between rich and poor countries: Having identified specific rich countries that are
engaging in low policy effort on behalf of the poor and specific developing countries
that are sensitive to those policies, the next step is to quantify the impact of a policy
change by rich countries on poor countries. Example: What degree of change in rich
countries’ trade policies would be required to increase Malian growth by one
percent? To which rich countries’ policies is Mali most sensitive, and to what
degree? Which poor countries are most affected by Norway’s policies, and to what
degree? Which political and institutional structures in Mali and Norway might affect
those impacts?
The workshop seeks to play a key role in the ongoing international dialogue on the subject
of the coherence and impact of rich country policies on poor countries. Particularly, we
would like participants in the workshop to discuss and review, in light of their initial research
experience, the research agenda identified at the June 2003 meeting entitled “Coherence and
Impact of Rich Countries’ Policies on Developing Countries” at the OECD Development
Centre, which Ulrich Hiemenz and Robert Picciotto have organized. This October
workshop will take into account the research proposals tabled at the June meeting. It will
also reflect the conclusions reached about research priorities at the June meeting in light of
early experiences.
The goals of the workshop will be:
1) To present and discuss several preliminary works of quantitative research in the
above three areas commissioned for the workshop.
2) To set a research agenda for the future in the above three themes—building on the
agenda set at the June 2003 “Coherence and Impact of Rich Countries’ Policies on
Developing Countries” meeting at the OECD Development Centre—in light of
practical experience in preliminary quantitative studies. What do we know, what do
we need to know, and to what degree is it feasible to quantify policy impacts in light
of research experience?
3) To make general recommendations for research methodology in this future work,
since studies that are standardized to some degree will be the most useful for
comparative work
4) To recommend whom CGD and GDN should involve in their future work in this
area
If you are able to attend, we ask you to propose to us a topic on which you would like to
write a piece of preliminary research for the workshop. The topic should be a case study
pertaining to one or more of the themes of the workshop, pertaining to a specific richcountry policy (or set of policies) and its impact on a particular developing country or region.
By “preliminary research” we mean a paper that goes beyond a “think piece” on what
research must or can be done. We believe that only in the process of carrying out
quantitative analysis does the feasibility of different research approaches come to light. We
therefore ask that papers prepared for the workshop, even if they remain works in progress
CGD/GDN experts’ research workshop, page 3 of 3
at the time of the meeting, contain preliminary quantitative analysis of datasets. Are there
natural experiments or at least time-series variations in policy that we can exploit to
determine the quantitative impact of developed-country policies on developing countries?
Further examples (and they are only examples) of the kinds of studies we envision at the
workshop include: A study on the first of the above three themes could seek ways to
improve CGD’s ongoing work on quantifying rich countries’ policy effort in areas that
impact poor countries, by looking deeply into the relative impacts of aid, trade, and
migration policy decisions by (say) Japan on the developing world. A study in the second
thematic area could quantify the relative impacts on (say) Mozambique of changes in aid
flows, in access to rich countries’ markets, in debt forgiveness programs, global warming,
technology transfer, and other areas—seeking to quantify where the largest impact on
Mozambique could occur. A study in the third area could focus on the impact of greater
migration from India encouraged by special technical visa schemes in the US and Canada,
both on the migrants themselves and on the rest of India. Another study in the third area
might analyze the complex effects on a developing country of a large change in trade policy
in the developed world, such as the quantitative effects on South African sugar producers of
a European switch away from sugar subsidies ‘coupled’ to production levels. Yet another
study in this third area could look in-depth at the effects of sudden change in the terms of
foreign aid to a developing country—such as the debt relief package received by Uganda
under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative. Aid for projects is very specifically
earmarked for those projects, whereas debt relief frees up recipient government resources
that can in principle be spent on anything; and the relative merits of the two are poorly
understood.
We would be very pleased if you are able to prepare a paper and attend the workshop. If so,
please get in touch with Dr. Michael Clemens of CGD to discuss your proposed paper topic
(email: mclemens@cgdev.org, telephone: +1-202-416-0722). We ask that you confirm your
topic with us only as a way of ensuring that the workshop represents a broad range of issues
and regions.
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