The Implications of
Convergence
on Spectrum Management
Mike Goddard
Director, Spectrum and International Policy
Radiocommunications Agency, UK
Convergence
• The merging of broadcasting,
telecommunications and computing
• The convergence of the underlying
technologies for delivering information,
communication and entertainment to a wide
range of users
Spectrum Managers need to plan
ahead but cannot predict the
future
• External study commissioned by the UK “Mapping the Future of Convergence of
Spectrum Management”
• Study based on ‘Future Mapping’, developing
four scenarios for 2010 (not predictions)
• Assessment of implications for spectrum
management for each scenario
Why Scenarios?
• Addressing uncertainty
– Accelerating change in technologies, markets
• Challenging conventional wisdom
– Asking “What if?”
• Stimulating strategic thinking
– Broader picture of technological, political, economic,
environmental, social trends
Forecasts vs Scenarios
 Conventional wisdom constrains
future thinking to linear
extrapolation of present
 Uncertainty dealt with by
changing forecast ±10%
2000
2010
+10%
-10%
 We don’t know the future
 We can make a forecast
 But it will probably be wrong!
The Future Can Be Quite Different
From What We Expect
• Complex interaction of
political, economic, social,
technological influences
• Totally different shape from
present!
Scenarios are not …...
• Predictions: they are alternative visions of
future
• Choices: there is no need to choose between
scenarios
• We imagine the future not to predict it but to
understand it and prepare for it
Mapping the Future: four very
different visions (1)
 A) Internet Convergence
– Internet central to everyday life shaking up value
chains - strong brands highly prized
– Multiple access platforms, user-friendly interfaces
 B) Digital Islands
– Confused consumers seek refuge in trusted walled
gardens
– DTV popular, cable thrives
Mapping the Future: four very
different visions (2)
 C) Total Mobility
– Mobile connectivity key, wide range of service
providers, some virtual
– WLANs, Bluetooth, frequency-agile technology
 D) Broadband Revolution
– Bandwidth is king, wireless can’t compete
– electronic-optical interface close to users, wireless
links short, high bandwidth
Scenarios - delivery
mechanisms
Title
A - Internet Convergence
B - Digital Islands
C - Total Mobility
D - Broadband Revolution
Delivery mechanism
IP networks using open
standards
Proprietary closed networks
Mobile terminal devices
Broadband optical networks
(Wireless a poor substitute)
Picture is Complex
• Not straightforward ‘either/or’ situation
• End-states can co-exist and interact
• Dominance of end-states likely to shift over
time
• But some common conclusions emerge
Specific conclusions
applicable to Spectrum
Management
• Need dynamic, responsive, flexible spectrum
management to respond to rapid, unpredictable
change
• Increase use of market-based spectrum
management tools such as auctions and trading
• More spectrum needed for fixed and mobile
services
• Seek modifications to ITU service definitions so
that nature of transmissions rather than content
determine use made of frequency bands
Flexible allocations
• More general, less specific allocations
• Introduction of spectrum trading
• Unregulated/lightly regulated blocks of
spectrum
More spectrum needed for:
• Wide area mobile
networks
• Fixed, including fixed
wireless access
• Local area networks
• Being met by IMT2000 decisions
• Existing bands, higher
frequencies (>30 GHz)
and especially 40 GHz
• 2.5 and 5 GHz, plus
review of allocations,
2 - 6 GHz
Service definitions
• Why do we allocate specific bands to specific
services ?
• Are the international service definitions still
valid ?
• Do we obey them ?
• What would we do if we could start afresh ?
Basic Assumptions
• Convergence impacts mainly on
broadcasting, fixed and mobile
• Little impact on other services
• Need different allocations for incompatible
services
• Can share compatible services
Example
• Fixed service sharing with fixed-satellite
service
• By definition, terminal stations in fixed service
are at “specified fixed points”
• Hence the two services can co-exist using
frequency coordination
Example (continued)
• Many new fixed services are not point-topoint but point-to-multipoint
• Similarly, in the fixed-satellite service, VSAT
networks or direct-to-home services may
have terminals anywhere within a specified
area
• Do these applications meet the strict
definition of the fixed service?
• Do the usual sharing assumptions apply?
One possible alternative approach
(intended to initiate debate, not a
formal proposal)
• Sub-divide the fixed definition into:
a)
traditional fixed (terminal at
specified position)
b)
Point-to-multipoint (fixed node but
terminals anywhere within a
specified area)
• Mobile service definition unchanged
• Broadcasting could be covered by fixed point-tomultipoint (thus facilitating interactive
broadcasting)
Review of definitions objectives
• Take account of technical and operational
developments
• Provide flexibility for future developments
while meeting spectrum management
objectives
• Evaluate the impact on individual allocations
• Provide general allocations at global level more detail regionally or nationally
Summary
• Convergence will have major impact on spectrum
•
•
•
•
management
Additional spectrum will be needed for some
services
Allocations and licensing must provide flexibility
Traditional service definitions will need to be
reviewed
The debate must be widened internationally, and
especially in the ITU