Winter 2007
No 130
Population Trends
In this issue
Page
In brief
Population Estimates, mid–2006
Household Population Estimates, mid 2006
Primary Care Organisations, mid–2002 to mid–2006
Updated health area classifications
Short-term migration estimates, mid–2004 and mid–2005
Population Trends: Readers’ views invited
Registrar General Northern Ireland Annual Report 2006
Welsh population seminar – 9 October 2007
ONS to publish population estimates for additional geographies
Annual Update: Births in England and Wales
Effects of problems with birth and death registration systems on ONS statistical outputs
Revised 2003–2006 mid-year Population Estimates, Scotland
Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland, 2004–2006
Focus on Families
Recent publications 3
3
4
4
4
4
4
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
Demographic indicators
8
The Changing Demographic Picture of the UK: National Statistician’s Annual Article
on the Population
Provides an overview of how the size and structure of the UK population is changing over time,
the latest trends in fertility, and work being undertaken to improve the quality of population and
migration statistics.
Karen Dunnell, National Statistician
9
Using data from overseas to improve estimates of emigration
Reports on research work carried out by ONS to investigate whether data sources held by other
countries can improve estimates of out-migration from the UK.
Ercilia Dini, Giles Horsfield and Lucy Vickers
22
Migration trends at older ages in England and Wales
Reports on trends in internal migration at older ages in England and Wales, using data from
the ONS Longitudinal Studies.
Zoe Uren and Shayla Goldring
31
Tables
List of tables
41
Notes to tables
42
Tables 1.1–9.3
43
Reports:
Mid–2006 Population Estimates
71
Emerging findings from the 2007 Census Test
75
Other population and health articles, publications and data
78
About the Office for National Statistics
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responsible for compiling, analysing and disseminating many of
the United Kingdom’s economic, social and demographic statistics,
including the retail prices index, trade figures and labour market
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registration of births, marriages and deaths in England and Wales.
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and December, respectively. In addition to bringing together articles
on a wide range of population and health topics, Health Statistics
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most recently available statistics.
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People with enquiries about the statistics published regularly in Health
Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends can contact the following
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Topic enquiries
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E-mail: vsob@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Migration: 01329 813872/813255
Mortality: 01329 813758
E-mail: vsob@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Population estimates: 01329 813318
E-mail: pop.info@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Population projections:
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E-mail: natpopproj@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Subnational – 01329 813865
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ISSN 0307-4463
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
2
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
in brief
Population
estimates,
mid-2006
Mid-2006 population estimates for the UK and
local authorities in England and Wales were
published on 22 August 2007, together with
revised estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2005.
The estimates show that the population of
the UK grew by 0.6 per cent to 60,587,300
in the year to June 2006, a rise of 2.5 per
cent since 2001. The estimates and a press
release can be found on the National Statistics
website by following the appropriate links
from www.statistics.gov.uk/popest . For
England and Wales the estimates incorporate
significant improvements to the estimation of
the international migration component. A full
report on the estimates appears in this edition of
Population Trends.
Estimates for Scotland (revised) and Northern
Ireland, also by local authority, were published
somewhat earlier, on 27 July 2007 for Scotland
and on 31 July 2007 for Northern Ireland.
Population estimates for Scotland are available
from:
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/
publications-and-data/population-estimates/
index.html.
Population estimates for Northern Ireland are
available from: www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/
default.asp?cmsid=20_21&cms=demography_
population+statistics&release=.
Household
population
estimates,
mid-2006
On 23 October 2007, the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) published household
population estimates for mid-2006. These are
estimates of the usually resident population
in an area living in private households, and
exclude the residents of communal/institutional
establishments. The statistics are disaggregated
by gender and broad age group and are
published for England, Wales, and Government
Office Regions (GORs) within England.
These estimates are produced in order to
fulfil the need for a measure of the population
living within private households for grossing
household surveys, and are available from mid2001 on an experimental basis, which should be
taken into account when using the data. They
can be found from the population estimates
homepage www.statistics.gov.uk/popest under
the ‘Household Population Estimates for
England and Wales (Experimental)’ link. More
information on the nature of experimental
statistics can be found at http://www.statistics.
gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=173.
The estimates are based on the proportion of
the total population categorised as living in
households in the 2001 Census. In calculating
the estimates, it has been assumed that the
percentage of the population in households, by
age and sex within each local authority, remains
constant over time. However, the accuracy of
this method will decrease as changes in society
and other factors may affect the proportion of
the population in communal establishments.
The 2006 mid-year estimate of household
population for England and Wales is
52,723,600, 98 per cent of the total population.
This shows an increase of 297,000 (0.6 per
cent) from mid-2005, reflecting the raise in
the total population with this proportion in
private households remaining unchanged. The
proportion in private households varies with
gender, age, and region.
The age group with the smallest proportion
living in households is those aged 70 and
over at 94 per cent. This reflects the fact that
greater proportions of the elderly population are
resident in communal establishments such as
care homes compared to other age groups. For
those aged under 18 and aged 50 to 69 over 99
per cent of the population are estimated to be
resident in private households. This proportion
drops to 98 per cent for those aged 18 to 49.
A slightly greater proportion of the usually
resident population are estimated to be living
in private households in Wales than in England.
Within England, the Government Office Region
with the greatest proportion is London. This
reflects the generally younger adult population
and proportionally smaller population aged 70
and over usually resident in London. Conversely,
the region with the lowest proportion is the South
West region. These regional variations partly
reflect the differing age structures of the regional
populations, as a relatively high proportion of
the usually resident population falls into the
70 and over age group in the South West when
compared with most other regions.
It should be noted that any changes in
proportions between mid-2006 and previous
years reflect changing age structures rather than
measured changes. ONS is hoping to develop
the methodology for producing estimates of
household population further in future.
3
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po pu lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win t e r 2 0 07
Primary Care
Organisations,
mid-2002 to
mid-2006
Mid-2002 to mid-2006 experimental population
estimates for Primary Care Organisations
(PCOs aka PCTs) in England were published
on 23 October 2007. The estimates release can
be found on the National Statistics website by
following the appropriate links from www.
statistics.gov.uk/popest (estimates for PCOs are
on Tables 14 and 15). The figures incorporate
significant improvements to the estimation of
the international migration component. A full
report on the estimates appears in this edition of
Population Trends.
These estimates have been derived using a
‘Postcode Best Fit’ methodology, which in
essence is an apportionment method. This
means it apportions population estimates
from the smallest geography for which ONS
regularly publishes estimates – Lower Layer
Super Output Areas, to unit postcode level
based on age and sex information from patient
register postcode level data. Further information
is available from:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_
by_theme/sape/default.asp. Estimates for 2006
are provisional, final estimates will become
available when mid-2006 small area population
figures are published.
The estimates show that the largest PCO in
2006 is Hampshire PCT with a population
of 1,265,900; the smallest is Hartlepool with
91,100 people. The fastest-growing PCO is
Camden PCT which has grown by just over 10
per cent between 2002 and 2006 to 227,500,
whereas Newham PCTs population has fallen
by two per cent to 248,400. The area with the
largest proportion of older residents is Dorset
PCT with 28 per cent of the population of
state retirement age (60 for females and 65 for
males) or over. Heart of Birmingham PCT has
the largest proportion of children with nearly 25
per cent of its population being aged under 16.
Updated
health area
classification
Due to substantial boundary changes to Primary
Care Organisations in England in 2006, an
updated health area classification was published
on 28 September 2007. These classifications are
commonly used in the public and commercial
sectors to target areas which have the same
characteristics, or to compare differences
between areas in the same grouping.
Area classifications bring together geographical
areas according to key characteristics common
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
4
to the population in that grouping. These
groupings are called clusters, and this area
classification is derived using data from the
2001 Census. Area classifications for the UK
for Local Authorities (LAs), wards, output
areas and health areas were created following
the Census. Health areas included Primary
Care Organisations (PCOs) in England, Local
Health Boards in Wales, Health Board Areas in
Scotland and Health and Social Services Boards
in Northern Ireland.
Primary Care Organisations in England were
restructured, along with their area boundaries, in
October 2006 by the Department of Health with
a view to improving the alignment of the borders
between PCOs and LAs. As a result the number
of PCOs was reduced from 304 to 152, and an
updated health area classification was published
to reflect these changes (as shown in Figure 1).
The same method was adopted in this exercise
for the restructured set of PCO boundaries
as for their predecessors in order to ensure
consistency. This retained the similarity
between health areas in England and the rest of
the UK, and between health areas and LAs.
In all the area classifications there are three
layers of clusters: supergroup, group and
subgroup. The variables chosen for the health
area classification were the same as for the LA
classification and fall under the main headings:
• Demographic
• Household composition
• Housing
• Socio-economic
• Employment
• Industry sector
All area classifications, including this health
area, along with interactive maps, can be found
at www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_
by_theme/area_classification.
Short-term
migration
estimates,
mid-2004 and
mid-2005
On October 25th 2007, the Office for National
Statistics published the first official estimates
of short-term migration. These were based
on the International Passenger Survey (IPS)
and were published as experimental statistics.
Estimates based on the United Nations definition
of a short-term migrant (visits for between
three and 12 months for employment or study)
were supplemented by a range of alternative
definitions including other reasons for visit and
shorter lengths of stay.
There were a total of 105,000 visits to England
and Wales in the year to mid-2005 consistent
with the UN definition. 247,000 visits were made
for employment or study reasons and lasted
between one and 12 months in the same period.
The number of visits lasting one to 12 months for
any reason was in excess of one million.
The estimated population of short-term
migrants present at any given time is always
lower than the estimate of visits made. This
reflects the short length of stay of many shortterm migrants and is demonstrated further by
average length of stay estimates provided in the
research report. A methodology for estimating
the average population present is provided for
the first time in the report.
Estimates of short-term migration at local area
level are recognised as a priority for many
users. The IPS cannot provide sufficiently
robust estimates at this lower geographic level.
Methods of estimating at this level will be
explored as the next phase of the project. This
work may however conclude that a suitable
methodology cannot be developed. Other
work due to be undertaken includes further
development of national level estimates to then
be published as ‘National Statistics’.
Population
Trends: readers’
views invited
As part of ONS’s continual drive to maintain the
quality of this important demographic journal,
we are asking our readership if they would let us
have any comments and suggestions to ensure
that it remains fresh and pertinent. We welcome
suggestions as to future scope and direction,
while always endeavouring to maintain the high
standards expected by our valued readership.
If you would like to give us your views, please
contact us at:
chris.w.smith@ons.gsi.gov.uk. Readers are also
reminded that we always welcome submission
of papers from external colleagues that are
appropriate to the scope of the journal.
Registrar
General
Northern Ireland
Annual Report
2006
The Annual Report of the Registrar General
for Northern Ireland was published in early
December 2007. Some of the key findings of
the report include:
There are more births than deaths in Northern
Ireland leading to the population growing
through natural change. In the year to June
2006, births exceeded deaths by 8,300 and
population gain due to civilian migration was
estimated to be 9,900 people.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 1
Wi n t e r 2007
NS 2001 Area Classification for Health Areas: Supergroup
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
London
Classifications
Cities and Services
London Suburbs
London Centre
London Cosmopolitan
Prospering UK
Coastal and Countryside
Mining and Manufacturing
Northern Ireland Countryside
See London
inset
Source: Office for National Statistics
In 2006, there were 23,272 births registered to
Northern Ireland resident mothers, an increase
of 4.2 per cent on the 2005 figure of 22,328
births. This is the fourth consecutive annual
increase. The total period fertility rate for 2006
was 1.94 children a rise from the record low of
1.75 children in 2000.
In 2006 there were 14,532 deaths registered in
Northern Ireland, a small increase of 300 deaths
or 2.2 per cent on the 14,224 deaths registered in
2005. However the number of deaths registered
in 2005 was the lowest number ever recorded in
Northern Ireland. Over the last thirty years the
death rate has fallen by around a quarter; from
11.2 deaths per 1,000 population in 1976, to 8.3
deaths per 1,000 population last year.
In 2006 there were 8,259 marriages celebrated,
an increase of 119 marriages or 1.5 per cent
on the 2005 figure of 8,140 marriages. On 1
January 2004 new marriage legislation came
into effect in Northern Ireland. The new law
allowed civil marriage ceremonies to be
conducted outside Registrar’s Offices in a
number of approved venues. In 2006, 881 civil
marriage ceremonies (36 per cent of all civil
marriage ceremonies) were held in approved
venues; this compares with 640 (29 per cent)
such marriages in 2005.
There were 2,565 divorces granted in 2006, this
is an increase from the 2005 figure of 2,362,
5
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po pu lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win t e r 2 0 07
and is the largest number of divorces ever
recorded in Northern Ireland.
On 5 December 2005 the Civil Partnership Act
came into force across the United Kingdom.
The new legislation enabled same-sex couples
to obtain legal recognition of their relationship.
During 2006 there were 116 civil partnerships
registered in Northern Ireland.
The report also contains a special chapter on
the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study which
looks at some initial demographic analysis
undertaken using the study. A digital copy of
the report can be obtained from the Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency website
www.nisra.gov.uk/demography or a paper copy
from The Stationary Office online bookshop
www.tsoshop.co.uk.
Wales
population
seminar –
9 October 2007
The Welsh Assembly Government’s Statistical
Directorate held a one-day population seminar
in mid-Wales on 9 October 2007. The purpose
of the event was to raise awareness of existing
population data sources, give examples of how
this information can be used to form policies
and to discuss ongoing developments.
Speakers from the Welsh Assembly Government
discussed key demographic trends in Wales,
accessing data and how this information has
been used in economic analysis. A guest
speaker from the General Register Office for
Scotland spoke about how population data has
been used in formulating the nation’s Fresh
Talent initiative. Guest speakers from the Office
for National Statistics discussed the Improving
Migration and Population Statistics work and
recent revisions to population estimates. A guest
speaker from Powys County Council explained
how local authorities can use population data to
create local demographic profiles.
Around 115 people attended the seminar from
a range of organisations within Wales. The
seminar received positive feedback, and the
Welsh Assembly Government is currently
considering holding similar events on other
subject areas in the future.
ONS to publish
population
estimates for
additional
geographies
Following on from the publication of population
estimates for Lower Layer and Middle
Layer Super Output Areas for England and
Wales (experimental statistics), ONS is now
publishing population estimates for additional
geographies using a ‘Postcode Best Fit’
methodology.
In essence the Postcode Best Fit methodology
is an Apportionment method, apportioning
population estimates from the smallest small
area geography for which population estimates
are published by ONS – Lower Layer Super
Output Areas (LSOAs), to unit postcode level
based on age and sex information from patient
register postcode level data.
This method uses the population estimates for
the 34,378 LSOAs in England and Wales by
age and sex and apportions these to around
1.6m residential and communal establishment
postcodes in England and Wales (with an
average population of 33) based on the counts
of persons by age and sex included on the
patient registers.
These postcode level estimates can then be
aggregated (or ‘best fitted’) to a range of
higher geographies using a suitable postcode
look-up file eg the National Statistics Postcode
Directory (NSPD), or if digital boundary
files exist, using a Geographic Information
System (GIS). A special allowance is made
for population sub-groups not included on
the patient registers, covering prisoners, UK
armed forces, and foreign armed forces and
dependants.
One key benefit of this method is that estimates
across a whole range of geographies are all
entirely consistent (and sum to the national
population estimate). A time series of ward
population estimates for mid-2001 to mid2005 were due to be published in November
2007, with mid-2001 to mid-2005 estimates
for Parliamentary Constituencies and National
Parks scheduled for publication in December
2007. These estimates will have the status of
experimental statistics.
6
Effects of
problems with
birth and death
registration
systems on
ONS statistical
outputs
As described in the previous edition of
Population Trends, problems with the
introduction of the new registration on line
system (RON) at register offices in England and
Wales have led to the temporary suspension of
some ONS outputs that rely on the completeness
of births and deaths registered between the end
of March and the beginning of May 2007.
Births and deaths records for this period, which
were held only on paper at register offices,
have now been entered onto the RON system.
Statistical quality assurance and compilation
processes have been completed for March
quarter 2007 data for provisional outputs, and
are continuing for June quarter 2007 data.
How this affects figures in Population Trends
Reference tables
Provisional conceptions figures for June quarter
2006 (which rely on March quarter 2007 and
June quarter 2007 birth registrations), due
in the Autumn edition of Population Trends,
have been quality assured and appear in this
edition. Provisional births, deaths and childhood
mortality figures for the quarter ending March
2007 for England and Wales, due in the Autumn
edition of Population Trends, are also released.
Revised 2003–
2006 Mid-year
Population
Annual Update: Estimates,
Births in England Scotland
and Wales
‘The Annual Update: Births in England and
Wales which usually appears in the winter
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
edition of Population Trends is omitted from
this edition. The Annual Update will appear on
the National Statistics website on 13 December
as a web supplement to Population Trends 130
at the following address: www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303’.
On 27 July 2007, the General Register Office
for Scotland revised its population estimates
for the years 2003 to 2006. These revisions
affect six council areas only. The affected areas
are Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Angus,
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Moray, Dundee City and Perth & Kinross. The
revisions do not affect NHS Board areas.
Subsequently, the 2004-based Population
Projections for Scottish Areas, Life Expectancy
for Administrative Areas within Scotland, 2002–
2004 and Life Expectancy for Administrative
Areas within Scotland, 2003–2005 publications
have also been revised.
Further details may be found at:
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publicationsand-data/population-estimates/revised-mid-yearpopulation-estimates–2003–2006.html.
Life Expectancy
for Administrative
Areas within
Scotland,
2004–2006
On 4 September 2007, the General Register
Office for Scotland published its Life
Expectancy for Administrative Areas within
Scotland, 2004–2006 publication. The key
points of this report are:
At birth:
• Life expectancy at birth for Scotland was
74.6 years for men and 79.6 years for
women. This varied considerably between
areas in Scotland;
• The council area with the highest male life
expectancy was East Dunbartonshire (78.0
years); 7.5 years more than Glasgow City,
the lowest at 70.5 years;
• East Renfrewshire was the council area
with the highest life expectancy for women
(81.9 years), 4.9 years more than Glasgow
City (lowest at 77.0 years);
• The NHS board area with the lowest figure
for both men and women was Greater
Glasgow & Clyde (72.5 and 78.2 years
respectively);
• The highest figures were for Shetland NHS
board area: men (76.6 years) and women
(81.5 years).
At age 65:
• Life expectancy at age 65 for Scotland
was 15.9 years for men and 18.6 years for
women;
• The council area with the highest life
expectancy at age 65 for men and women
was Shetland (18.0 years and 20.5 years
respectively), 4.2 years for men and 3.2
years for women more than Glasgow City;
• The NHS board area with the lowest figure
for men was Greater Glasgow & Clyde
(14.7 years). The lowest figure for women
was in Greater Glasgow & Clyde and
Lanarkshire (both 17.9 years). Shetland had
the highest for both men and women (18.0
years and 20.5 years respectively).
Compared with 10 years ago in 1994–1996:
• Life expectancy at birth for Scotland has
improved from 72.1 years to 74.6 years
for men and 77.8 years to 79.6 years for
women;
• The gap between men and women is
closing, dropping from 5.7 years to 5.0
years over the period;
• Although some areas had only very small
increases in life expectancy over the 10year period, there were no areas (council
or NHS board area) that experienced a
decrease;
• The gap between highest and lowest council
areas for men remained the same at 7.5
years but, for women, the gap increased
from 4.4 years in 1994–1996 to 4.9 years in
2004–2006;
• The biggest rise in life expectancy for men
was in Shetland with 4.9 years and East
Dunbartonshire (2.7 years) for women;
• The smallest rise was in Clackmannanshire
(0.2 years) for men and East Ayrshire (0.7
years) for women.
Further details may be found at:
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/
publications-and-data/life-expectancy/lifeexpectancy-for-administrative-areas-2004-2006/
index.html.
Wi n t e r 2007
between 1996 and 2006, from 1.4 million to 2.3
million. Married couple families fell by four per
cent over the same time period, to 12.1 million.
The above statistic is just one of many included
in Focus on Families, released by the Office for
National Statistics on the 4th October 2007 and
available as a free download from the National
Statistics website.
One of the central questions at global, national
and sub-national levels is how life varies
according to the family type in which you
live. For example, does health, education
or care provision vary by family type? An
understanding of families is crucial for those
involved in planning and decision making at the
national and local level. Moreover, at one time
or another, every member of society is part of,
or affected by, his or her family situation.
Contents
The report uses the most recent and robust
sources available to illustrate the structure and
characteristics of families in the UK. Providing
an up-to-date and comprehensive description
of families at the start of the 21st century, it
presents a wealth of information on families,
how they have changed over time and the
demographic forces driving these trends.
The report is divided into five chapters:
• • • • • An overview of UK families
Unpaid care and the family
Education and the family
Health and the family
The geography of UK families
The report is aimed at people who want
to deepen their understanding of the UK’s
families, be they students, teachers, researchers,
policy makers or members of the general public.
It is designed to be accessible to a general
audience, with text, charts, maps and tables that
are easy to understand, and an appendix for
those who want more information on data and
methods.
For more information please contact Steve
Smallwood on 01329 813539 or steve.
smallwood@ons.gsi.gov.uk.
Focus on
Families
The number of opposite-sex cohabiting couple
families in the UK increased by 65 per cent
Focus on Families, 2007 edition is available
from Palgrave Macmillan (£40.00, ISBN
978–1–4039–9323–6), or for free on the
National Statistics website: www.statistics.gov.
uk/focuson/families.
Recent Publications
Birth statistics 2006 (December, available on the National Statistics
website at www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=5768)
Health Statistics Quarterly 36 (Palgrave Macmillan, £30, November,
ISBN 978–0–230–52599–3)
Conception statistics 2005 (November, available on the National
Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.
asp?vlnk=5768)
Mortality statistics: general 2005 (series DH1 no. 38) (October,
available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/
StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=620)
Contraception and sexual health 2006/07 (October, available on the
National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.
asp?vlnk=6988)
All of the above Palgrave Macmillan titles can be ordered on 01256
302611 or online at www.palgrave.com/ons. All publications listed can be
downloaded free of charge from the National Statistics website.
Focus on Families (Palgrave Macmillan, £40, October, ISBN 978–1–
4039–9323–6)
7
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po pu lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Demographic indicators
Figure A
England and Wales
Population change (mid-year to mid-year)
Thousands
400
Natural change
300
Total change
200
100
0
–100
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1–7 72–7 73–7 74–7 75–7 76–7 77–7 78–7 79–8 80–8 81–8 82–8 83–8 84–8 85–8 86–8 87–8 88–8 89–9 90–9 91–9 92–9 93–9 94–9 95–9 96–9 97–9 98–99–200000–0001–0002–0003–0004–0005–0
9 2 2 2 2 2 2
Mid-year
197
Figure B
Total fertility rate
TFR (average number of children per woman)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Figure C
Live births outside marriage
Percentage of all live births
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
Year
Figure D
Infant mortality (under 1 year)
Rate per thousand live births
20
15
10
5
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
Year
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
8
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
The Changing
Demographic Picture
of the UK
National Statistician’s
Annual Article on the
Population
Karen Dunnell
National Statistician
The population of the UK is currently growing at
its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two
and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid2006. While life expectancy continues to increase,
fertility rates have also been increasing in the
last five years and are currently at their highest
level since 1980. In addition, international
migration has led to the UK population growing
by an average of 500 people per day over the
last five years. The population is also becoming
increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors
make it increasingly challenging to measure
population change accurately.
This is the first of a series of annual reports on
the population of the UK; these reports will
provide an overview of the latest statistics on the
population and will also focus on one specific
topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in
particular, the impact of migration on fertility,
but different topics will be covered in future
years. The reports will also highlight the key
strands of work being taken forward within the
National Statistics Centre for Demography in
order to improve UK population statistics. More
detailed information on the populations of Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in
the annual demographic reports produced by the
respective devolved administrations.1
Overview of the Current Population of the UK
In 2006, the population of the UK stood at almost 60.6 million2. This
was a 7.5 per cent increase from 56.4 million in 1981, and a 2.5 per
cent increase from 59.1 million over the last five years alone (Table 1).
Between 1981 and 2006, the populations of England, Wales and Northern
Ireland increased by 8 per cent, 5 per cent and 13 per cent respectively,
while the population of Scotland declined by 1 per cent. However, over
the past five years, all four countries have experienced population growth.
The UK population grew by almost one and a half million
between mid-2001 and mid-2006, and at the fastest rate of
growth since the 1960s
Within England between 1981 and 2006, the populations of the East,
East Midlands, South East, South West and London all increased by at
least 10 per cent. In contrast, the populations of the North East and North
West declined by 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively. However, over
the last five years, all Government Office Regions within England have
experienced population growth, the most rapid growth being in the East
and East Midlands.
Of the twenty-one local government areas with the largest population
growth (8 per cent or more) between 2001 and 2006, twelve were in the
East or East Midlands, four were in London and the South East, and
three were in Northern Ireland. Of the fifty-one areas whose population
declined between 2001 and 2006, fourteen were in Scotland, twelve were
in the North of England, and eleven were in London and the South East
(Figure 1). Although Northern Ireland has seen the largest population
growth of the four UK countries over the past five years (3.1 per cent),
9
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Table 1
Win te r 2 0 07
Population estimates, mid-1981 to mid-2006 – UK, constituent countries and English Government Office Regions
millions
Percentage Increase
mid-1981
mid-1986
mid-1991
mid-1996
mid-2001
mid-2006
UK
56.4
56.7
57.4
58.2
59.1
60.6
England
1981-2006
2001-2006
7.5
2.5
46.8
47.2
47.9
48.5
49.4
50.8
8.4
2.7
North East
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
-3.1
0.6
North West
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
-1.3
1.2
Yorkshire & The Humber
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
4.6
3.3
East Midlands
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.4
13.3
4.2
West Midlands
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
3.5
1.6
East
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.6
15.5
3.8
London
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.5
10.4
2.6
South East
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
13.7
2.7
South West
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
16.9
3.7
Wales
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
5.4
1.9
Scotland
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
-1.2
1.0
Northern Ireland
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
12.9
3.1
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Belfast has seen a 3.5 per cent decline in its population over the same
period, the largest of any local government area in the UK.
Between 2001 and 2006, Northern Ireland saw the greatest
population growth of the four UK countries, but the
population of Belfast declined more than any other local
government area within the UK.
Population growth or decline is based on births, deaths and net migration.
However, an area that is not experiencing large levels of population growth
or decline may still be experiencing a large volume of migration moves
when migration into and out of the area are considered together. Population
turnover is measured as the number of moves into an area from elsewhere
in the UK or overseas plus the number of moves out of an area to elsewhere
in the UK or overseas per 100 population. Of the 22 local government areas
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland that had the highest annual volume
of overall migration between mid-2001 and mid-2006 (18 moves or more
per 100 population), all were London boroughs except Cambridge, Oxford
and Reading (Figure 2). Half of these areas of highest population turnover
experienced either slower population growth than the UK average (2.7 per
cent) or population decline (Table 2). This was due to moves into these
areas being offset by moves out of the same area, hence resulting in little
actual population change. For example, between 2001 and 2006, Lambeth
had the tenth highest annual volume of migration in England and Wales but
actually experienced slight population decline over this period.
Mid-year population estimates only take into account international
migration that is ‘long-term’, namely the migration of people who
are coming to or leaving the UK for one year or more (see Box One).
Table 2
Local government areas in England, Wales and
Northern Ireland with highest population turnover,
comparison with population change, 2001–06
Average Volume of Migration
(moves per 100 population)
Population Change
(per cent)
Cambridge
28
City of London
28
7.3
5.4
Westminster
26
14.1
Oxford
26
10.0
Camden
24
12.3
Wandsworth
24
2.7
Hammersmith and Fulham
24
1.2
Isles of Scilly
24
0.0
Islington
23
3.4
Lambeth
22
–0.5
Kensington and Chelsea
22
9.7
Haringey
21
2.0
Southwark
20
4.9
Reading
19
–1.3
Tower Hamlets
19
5.8
Merton
19
3.5
Richmond upon Thames
19
3.0
Newham
19
–0.4
Ealing
19
–0.3
Brent
18
0.7
Hackney
18
0.6
Hounslow
18
1.2
Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency
Box one
Definitions of long-term and short-term migration
The United Nations recommended definition of a long-term
international migrant is a person who moves to a country other
than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year
(12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes
his or her new country of usual residence. From the perspective of the
country of departure the person will be a long-term emigrant and from
that of the country of arrival the person will be a long-term immigrant.
This 12 month migrant definition is used for the UK usually resident
mid-year population estimates and projections series.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
10
The United Nations recommended definition of a short-term
international migrant is a person who moves to a country other
than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3
months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where
the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday,
visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious
pilgrimage.
Figure 1
Population Change mid-2001 to mid-2006
United Kingdom
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Population change as a percentage
8 or over
4 to 7.9
0 to 3.9
under 0
Average local authority population change = 2.7%
London
See Inset
Isles of Scilly
Source: Office for National Statistics
Figure 2
Population Turnover mid-2001 to mid-2006
England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Average annual volume of migration,
moves per hundred population
18 or over
15 to 17.9
11 to 14.9
7 to 10.9
under 7
Average local authority migration
per 100 population = 10.8
See Inset
London
Source: Office for National Statistics
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Table 3
Wi n t e r 2007
Population estimates, mid-2006, and mid-2006 based population projections 2011 to 2031 – UK and constituent countries
millions
Percentage increase
mid-2006
mid-2011
mid-2016
mid-2021
mid-2026
mid-2031
2006–2031
UK
60.6
62.8
65.0
67.2
69.3
71.1
17.4
2006–2011
England
50.8
52.7
54.7
56.8
58.7
60.4
19.0
3.8
Wales
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
11.1
2.4
Scotland
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.0
1.7
Northern Ireland
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
14.8
4.0
3.6
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; 2006-based National
Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Recently published experimental estimates of short-term migration3
indicate that according to the UN recommended definition an additional
43,000 people were, on average, temporarily resident in England &
Wales for work or study purposes at any given time during the year to
mid-2005. Of these, 16,000 were based in London. The UN definition
only includes visits made for between three and 12 months. Experimental
estimates show that over the year to mid-2005, the flow of short-term
migration was much higher (105,000 using the UN definition) than the
population present at a given time which is inevitable given that such
visits last for only a fraction of a year.
The population of the UK is expected to continue to grow. It is projected
that it will rise to 65 million by 2016 (an increase of 7.2 per cent
compared with 2006), and will exceed 71 million by 20314 (Table 3).
The populations of all four constituent countries of the UK are projected
to rise more quickly over the next five years than they have over the
previous five years. Over the next 25 years, the populations of England,
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by
19 per cent, 11 per cent, 5 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
It is projected that the population of the UK will increase by
over 10 million (17 per cent) by 2031.
90
Estimated age structure of the UK population:
mid-1981 and mid-2006
80
2031
2031
70
60
2006
50
2006
40
30
20
10
600
400
200
Males (thousands)
0
200
400
Females (thousands)
600
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency;
2006-based National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Estimated and projected UK population aged 65
and over
10
65–74
8
75–84
85+
Millions
The population of the UK is ageing. In 1981, 22 per cent of the population
was aged under 16 while 15 per cent of the population was aged 65 and over
(Figure 3). Compared with 1981, there were over a million fewer children
in the UK population in 2006 (19 per cent of the population) and over 1.2
million more people aged 65 and over (16 per cent of the population). The
UK population of persons aged 16–64 increased by 4.0 million between
1981 and 2006. The average (mean) age of people in this group increased
from 38 years to 40 years over the same period.
Estimated and projected age structure of the UK
population: mid-2006 and mid-2031
100
Figure 5
Age Structure of the UK Population
Figure 3
Figure 4
6
4
2
80
0
70
50
40
20
1981
10
600
mid-2031
2006
30
1981
mid-2006
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics,
General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency; 2006-based National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
60
2006
mid-1981
400
200
0
200
400
600
Males (thousands)
Females (thousands)
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
It is projected that the population of the UK aged 65 and over will rise by
63 per cent to 15.8 million over the next 25 years, while the population
aged under 16 will rise by just 11 per cent to 12.8 million (Figure 4).
It is projected that in 2007, for the first time, the population of state
pensionable age (65 and over for men and 60 and over for women) will
exceed the number of children under 16. By 2031 it is projected that
persons aged under 16 will make up 18 per cent of the UK population,
while those aged 65 and over will account for 22 per cent of the UK
population. Over the same period, the population aged 16–64 is projected
13
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
to rise by 8 per cent (3.2 million) to 42.5 million, with the average (mean)
age of persons in this age group rising slightly from 40.0 to 40.3 years.
In 1981, just 1 per cent of the population were aged 85 and over. Over the
last 25 years, the number in this age group has more than doubled to 1.2
million (Figure 5), with those aged 85 and over now representing 2 per
cent of the population. Indeed, the estimated number of people aged 85 and
over rose by 6 per cent in just one year between mid-2005 and mid-2006,
and over the next 25 years it is projected that the number of people in this
age group will more than double to 2.9 million, meaning that 4 per cent
of the UK population will be aged 85 or more. The estimated number of
people aged 100 and over in the UK reached almost 10,000 in 2006, and by
2031 it is projected that this number will increase six-fold to 59,000.
Table 5
UK population by ethnic group, 2001
Percentages
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
United
Kingdom
90.9
97.9
98.0
99.3
92.1
White Groups
Non-White Groups:
Mixed
The ageing of the population, and in particular the projected doubling of
the population aged 85 or more over the next 25 years, will have major
implications for future policy and service provision. Analyses based upon the
results of the General Household Survey for Great Britain5 have indicated
that when interviewed, over 20 per cent of those aged 85 and over had
visited their GP within the last two weeks and over 25 per cent had visited
hospital as an out-patient in the last 3 months. In 2001, over 10 per cent of
men and over 20 per cent of women aged 85 and over lived in communal
establishments. For the remainder living in private households, over 40 per
cent of men and 70 per cent of women aged 85 and over lived alone.
Dependency ratios are measured as the number of children (those aged
0–15) and persons of state pensionable age (currently 60 and over for
women and 65 and over for men) per 100 people of working age (16–59 for
women and 16–64 for men). The overall dependency ratio has fallen from
67 to 61 in the last 25 years (Table 4), due to the rise in the working age
population combined with the fall in the number of children outweighing
the rise in the number of persons of state pensionable age. It is projected
that the dependency ratio will increase a little to 64 by 2031 despite the
forthcoming changes in the state pension ages for both men and women6.
Characteristics of the UK Population
Ethnicity
In 2001, 8 per cent of the UK population belonged to a non-white ethnic
group7. This percentage varied for the four UK countries (Table 5) – while
9 per cent of the population of England were non-white, the percentages
for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were much lower (2 per cent, 2
per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively).
The latest experimental population estimates by ethnic group for
England8 indicate that between mid-2001 and mid-2005 the population
belonging to non-white ethnic groups increased by 945,000, accounting
for almost 11 per cent of the English population in mid-2005.
Table 4
Estimated and projected UK dependency
ratios, 1981, 2006 and 2031
Number per 100 persons of working age:
Children
Persons of State
Pensionable Age
All
Dependents
37
30
67
mid-2006
31
30
61
mid-2031
29
34
64
mid-1981
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; 2006-based
National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
14
2.1
2.0
0.7
7.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
1.2
Asian or Asian British
4.6
0.9
1.1
0.2
4.0
Black or Black British
2.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.0
Chinese or other ethnic groups
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
All ethnic groups
By 2031, it is projected that 2.9 million people will be aged
85 or more (4 per cent of the total UK population), of whom
59,000 will be aged 100 or more.
9.1
1.3
Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland,
Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency
The age structure of the different ethnic groups within the UK population
differs greatly (Figure 6 – note that the population in white ethnic groups
is far larger than that in any of the other groups and thus the scales differ
between the charts). While the average (mean) age of those in White
ethnic groups was 40 years in 2001, the corresponding average ages of
those in Black, Asian and Mixed ethnic groups were 31, 29 and 21 years
respectively. The very young age structure of the Mixed ethnic groups
reflects the increasing prevalence of inter-ethnic partnerships. In 2001,
two and a half per cent of couples (married and cohabiting) in England
were from different ethnic groups.
Whilst the average age of those in White ethnic groups was
40 years in 2001, the corresponding average ages of those
in Black, Asian and Mixed ethnic groups were 31, 29 and 21
years respectively
Country of birth
In 1981, just over six per cent of the UK population had been born
overseas. By 2001, this had risen to over eight per cent, and latest estimates
from the Labour Force Survey indicate that in 2006 almost ten per cent
of the UK population were born overseas. Between 2001 and 2006, the
estimated number of people living in the UK who were born in the eight
Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union
in May 2004 (known as the ‘A8’ countries) rose to over 400,000. Despite
this recent rise, this group still only accounts for seven per cent of the total
overseas-born population of the UK (Figure 7).
In 2006, almost 10 per cent of the UK population were
born overseas
Households and Families
In 2006, there were just under 25 million households9 in the UK, a rise
of over 20 per cent since 1981 (Figure 8). While the number of multiple
person households rose by just 9 per cent over this period, the number
of single person households rose by 65 per cent. Much of this rise in
single person households was as a result of people of working age being
increasingly likely to live alone. In 1981, approximately two-thirds of
single person households were people of the state pensionable age, but
this had fallen to approximately half by 2006. It is projected that the
number of households in the UK will rise to 30 million by 2021, of which
over a third will be single person households.
There were an estimated 17 million families9 living in the UK in 2006.
Over the last 10 years, the number of married couple families has fallen
slightly, while the number of cohabiting couple families has increased by
over 60 per cent (Figure 9). While there were over 180,000 more lone
parent families in 2006 than in 1996, the estimated number of single
father families actually fell slightly over this period.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 6
Age structure of the population of Great Britain by ethnic group
White Ethnic Groups
500
400
Mixed Ethnic Groups
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
300
200
100
Males (thousands)
0
100
200
300
400
Females (thousands)
500
30
20
10
Males (thousands)
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
Black Ethnic Groups
Asian Ethnic Groups
30
Wi n t e r 2007
20
10
Males (thousands)
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
30
20
10
Males (thousands)
Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland
Figure 7
Overseas-born population of the UK by selected
country of birth, 2006
Households by type, UK, 1981-2006
Figure 8
3.0
30
2.5
25
2.0
20
Millions
Millions
Single person households
A8
1.5
1.0
15
10
5
0.5
0
0.0
Multiple person households
Irish Republic
Rest of EU
Old
India/
Commonwealth Pakistan/
Bangladesh
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Rest of the
World
1981
1991
2001
2006
Source: Censuses, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland,
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency;
Household Estimates, Communities and Local Government, Scottish Executive;
Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Components of Population Change
Increases in the number of births, decreases in the number of deaths, and
changes in the pattern of international migration into and out of the UK have
all contributed to population growth over the last twenty-five years (Figure
10). While natural change, the difference between the numbers of births
and deaths, has remained relatively constant, adding an average of 100,000
people to the UK population each year, the contribution of international
migration to population change has been far more variable. Between mid1981 and mid-1986, the effect of net migration was to reduce the population
slightly. This is in sharp contrast to recent years when net migration has
been the predominant driver of population change. Between mid-2001 and
mid-2006, net migration and other changes accounted for almost two-thirds
of the 1.5 million growth in the UK population (not including the impact
that net migration had upon the number births in the UK).
Births
In 2006 there were 749,000 live births in the UK, up almost 12 per cent
from 669,000 in 200110. The total fertility rate (TFR, see Box Two) in the
UK has consistently risen since 2001 from a record low of 1.63 children
per woman to 1.84 children per woman in 2006. This is the highest
15
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Families by type, UK, 1996 and 2006
Figure 9
The total fertility rate in the UK has consistently risen since
2001 from a record low of 1.63 children per woman to 1.84
children per woman in 2006
15.0
Over the last twenty-five years, the TFR for Northern Ireland has
remained higher than that for the UK as a whole, but the difference
between the two has narrowed from over 0.7 children per woman in 1981
to just 0.1 children per woman in 2006. Since the mid-1980s the TFR for
Scotland has been 0.1 to 0.2 children per woman lower than that for the
UK as a whole. The recent rises in fertility rates have resulted in the TFR
for England and Wales in 2006 being similar to that observed in 1980.
The TFR for Wales was higher than that for England during the 1990s,
but has been very similar to that for England since 2001.
1996
2006
Millions
10.0
5.0
0.0
Lone father
family
Lone mother
family
Married couple Cohabiting couple
family
family
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Box two
Glossary of Demographic Terms
Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Figure 10
Components of population change, UK, mid-1981
to mid-2006
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
2.0
The average number of children a group of women would have
if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates for a particular
year throughout their child-bearing life. For example a TFR of
1.84 in 2006 means that a group of women would have an
average of 1.84 children each during their lifetime based solely on
2006’s age-specific fertility rates. This measure reflects the current
intensity of childbearing and the rate at which the population is
replacing itself, rather than completed family size.
Natural change
Millions
1.5
Net migration and other changes
1.0
0.5
0.0
–0.5
Replacement Fertility Level
1981–1986
1986–1991
1991–1996
1996–2001
2001–2006
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
Figure 11
Total fertility rate, UK and constituent countries,
1961 to 2006
4.0
UK
England & Wales
3.5
Children per woman
The number of live births in a year to women aged x, per
thousand women aged x in the mid-year population.
The level of fertility required to ensure a population replaces
itself in size. In the UK, as in all developed countries, a fertility
rate of 2.1 is usually taken as roughly approximate to the level of
replacement fertility.
Completed Family Size (CFS)
The average number of children that women born in a particular
year have had by the end of their childbearing years. This measure
takes into account changes in the timing of childbearing between
generations, but is not a timely measure of family size as it is
based upon women who have completed their childbearing.
Scotland
Age-standardised Mortality Rate
Northern Ireland
3.0
Age-standardised mortality rates cover all ages and are
standardised to the European Standard Population, expressed per
million population; they allow comparisons between populations
with different age structures, including between males and
females over time.
2.5
2.0
1.5
Period and Cohort Life Expectancy
1.0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1961 to 2006: Office
for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency.
TFR since 1980, but is still below replacement level (see Box Two) and
much lower than the rates seen during the 1960s baby boom (Figure
11). The recent rise in the TFR has occurred in all four countries of the
UK. Several other countries around the world have also experienced
increasing TFRs over the past five years including France, Sweden,
Denmark, Finland and Australia.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
16
Period life expectancy is calculated using the age-specific
mortality rates for a given period (either a single year or a run of
years) with no allowance for any later actual or projected changes
in mortality. It provides a useful statistic for summarising mortality
rates over a given period, but it does not reflect the length of time
a person would expect to live since it does not allow for known
or assumed changes in future mortality rates as that person ages.
Cohort life expectancy is calculated using known or projected
mortality rates as a person ages. It therefore reflects the length of
time a person would expect to live.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
70
65
Total international long-term migration to and from
the UK, 1991 to 2006
Figure 14
600
Immigration
500
Net migration
Emigration
400
300
200
100
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
19
97
98
19
19
95
96
19
94
19
93
19
19
91
0
Source: Total International Migration estimates, Office for National Statistics
Figure 15
Net international long-term migration to the UK by
citizenship, 2004 to 2006
600
400
Thousands
Age-standardised mortality rate by sex, England &
Wales, 1981 to 2006
14,000
Rate per million population
75
Men
Women
Source: Interim Life Tables and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK for a year or more
than left to live overseas13 (Figure 14). An estimated 591,000 long-term
200
A8
0
–200
Males
12,000
Females
10,000
–400
British
European
Commonwealth
Other
Union
foreign
Source: Total International Migration estimates, Office for National Statistics
8,000
international migrants (see Box One) arrived to live in the UK, of whom
510,000 (86 per cent) were non-British citizens. The estimated number
of people emigrating from the UK reached a record high of 400,000 in
2006, of whom just over half (207,000) were British citizens.
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1981
2031
80
60
Migration
Figure 12
2004–06
92
Greater than expected falls in mortality over the last two years have
led to increases in the assumptions related to life expectancy used for
producing the National Population Projections. For the latest 2006-based
projections, the UK assumption for period life expectancy at birth in
2031 is 82.7 years for men and 86.2 years for women, a rise of 1.3 years
and 1.2 years respectively when compared with the assumptions for 2031
used for the 2004-based population projections. While the assumptions
for 2031 include improvements in mortality rates between now and 2031,
they do not take into account improvements beyond 2031. Cohort life
expectancies at birth (that include allowance for further improvements in
mortality rates beyond 2031) are 8.6 years higher for men and 8.0 years
higher for women compared to the equivalent period measures.
85
19
Period life expectancy (see Box Two) in the UK has risen steadily over
the past 25 years (Figure 13). Latest estimates12 indicate that based on
mortality rates in 2004-2006, compared to mortality rates experienced
in 1980-1982, life expectancy for newborn boys has risen by six years to
76.9 years, while that for newborn girls has risen by over four years to
81.3 years. These estimates of life expectancy do not take into account
projected improvements in mortality during the lifetime of children born
in 2004–06. Allowing for the projected mortality improvements assumed
in the 2006-based population projections, cohort life expectancy at birth
in 2005 is 88.0 years for boys and 91.3 years for girls.
1980–82
19
In 2006 there were 572,000 deaths registered in the UK11, 274,000
for men and 298,000 for women. Age-standardised mortality rates
(see Box Two) in England & Wales for males and females were 7,123
and 4,989 deaths per million population respectively. These rates have
fallen steadily since 1981, with the male rate falling by 42 per cent and
the female rate falling by 33 per cent (Figure 12). Over the last 5 years
alone, there has been a 13 per cent fall in the male age-standardised death
rate and a 10 per cent fall in the female rate, with the difference between
the male and female rates in 2006 being the lowest ever recorded.
90
Expectation of life at birth (years)
Deaths
Period life expectancy at birth, 1980–82, 2004–06
and 2031
Figure 13
Thousands
The continued rise in UK fertility rates over recent years has led to the
first rise in the long-term fertility assumption used for producing the
National Population Projections since the 1960s baby boom. For the latest
2006-based projections, a completed family size of 1.84 children per woman
has been assumed for the long-term compared with the previous assumption
of 1.74 children per woman used for the 2004-based projections.
Wi n t e r 2007
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Death registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006: Office
for National Statistics
In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK
for a year or more than left to live overseas
17
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
In the three year period from 2004 to 2006, citizens of the eight Central
and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in May 2004 (known
as the ‘A8’ countries) accounted for 13 per cent of total long-term
immigration and 4 per cent of total long-term emigration. There was
thus a net migration of 180,000 A8 citizens to the UK over this period,
compared with long-term net inflows of 100,000 citizens of other EU
countries, 420,000 Commonwealth citizens, and 260,000 other foreign
citizens. Over the same period, there was a long-term net emigration of
320,000 British citizens (Figure 15).
The continued high level of international migration to the UK over
recent years has contributed to a rise in the long-term assumption for net
migration used for producing the National Population Projections. For
the latest 2006-based projections, a net international migration inflow
of 190,000 each year has been assumed, compared with the previous
assumption of 145,000 a year used for the 2004-based projections.
However, 20,000 of this increase is attributable to a methodological
change following the announcement earlier this year of improvements to
the estimation of international migration14.
Focus on Fertility
As already outlined, the total fertility rate (TFR, see Box Two) in the UK
has been rising over the past five years from a record low of 1.63 children
per woman in 2001 to 1.84 children per woman in 2006, the highest level
since 1980 (Figure 11).
Trends in age-specific fertility rates have also been changing in recent years
(Figure 16). The general trend over the last twenty-five years in the UK
and all the constituent countries has been of falling fertility at younger ages
alongside rising fertility at older ages. This has led to a steady increase in
the mean age of childbearing in the UK. In 1981 the mean age of women at
childbirth was 27 years but by 2006 this had risen to 29 years. Since 2002,
fertility rates have continued to rise at older ages, but there have also been
small rises in fertility rates for women in their twenties. This rise in the
fertility of younger women has been particularly unexpected and it is not
clear whether this trend will continue over future years.
Fertility can also be analysed from a cohort perspective by considering
family size achieved at selected ages by women born in different years.
There has been a steady decline in achieved family size for cohorts born
since the mid-1940s (Table 6). Among women who have already reached
age 45, average family size fell from 2.22 children for the cohort born
in 1945 to 1.98 for the cohort born in 1960. Similarly, women born in
1965, 1970 and 1975 have had steadily fewer children by ages 25 and 30
Figure 16
Table 6
Average achieved family size by age, UK,
selected birth cohorts
Achieved family size by age of woman
Year of birth
1945
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.35
1.24
1.87
2.12
2.21
2.22
1950
0.36
1.07
1.67
1.97
2.07
2.09
1955
0.31
0.93
1.54
1.88
2.01
2.03
1.98
1960
0.24
0.81
1.42
1.81
1.96
1965
0.20
0.71
1.29
1.70
1.87
1.63
1970
0.22
0.67
1.19
1975
0.21
0.59
1.09
1980
0.22
0.59
1985
0.19
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics,
General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
than earlier cohorts. However, although achieved fertility by age 30 has
been falling, the 1965 and 1970 cohorts have partly ‘caught up’ because
of higher fertility in their thirties. For example, women born in 1970 had
0.44 children on average between ages 30 and 35 compared with 0.38
children for women born ten years earlier.
In a marked change in the trend seen previously where each successive
cohort has achieved slightly lower fertility at each age, women born in
1980 had achieved the same family size by age 25 as the 1975 cohort.
It remains to be seen whether the upturn in fertility for women aged 20
to 29 since 2002 will lead to higher completed family sizes for women
born during the 1980s or whether these most recent cohorts will have
relatively lower fertility in their thirties to compensate.
Factors influencing fertility
In most developed countries, fertility rates for women in their thirties
and forties have been increasing since the mid-1970s. Women have been
increasingly delaying their childbearing for a variety of reasons including
wider participation in higher education, increased proportions of women
in full-time employment, later marriage and partnership formation, and
medical advances that have enabled childbearing at older ages.
Previous studies15 have shown that women with higher education
qualifications tend to have children later in life and are more likely
to be childless. Over the last 20 years, there has been a large increase
in the proportion of women in the UK who have a higher education
qualification. Labour force participation by women can also lead to
Age-Specific Fertility Rates, UK, 1981-2006
Figure 17
Percentage of women in full-time or part-time
work, UK, 1986-2006
100
120
30-34
100
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
80
25-29
80
20-24
60
35-39
40
Percentage
Live births per 1,000 women
140
60
40
Under 20
20
0
1981
40 and over
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office
for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
18
20
0
18–24
25–34
Age
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
35–49
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 18
17
Live births by country of birth of mother, UK, 2006
Table 7
Wi n t e r 2007
Estimated total fertility rates by country
of birth of mother, England & Wales, 2002
and 2006
Estimated Total Fertility Rate
2002
2006
UK born
1.5
1.7
UK
Born outside UK
2.3
2.5
Republic of Ireland
Source: Birth registration data and populations by country of birth from the Labour Force
Survey, Office for National Statistics
Mother born in:
Other EU25 country
India/Pakistan/Bangladesh
Figure 19
Other countries
Change in estimated age specific fertility rates for
UK born and non-UK born women, England and
Wales, 2002–06
160
non-UK born
postponement of fertility. The percentage of women aged 25-49
working full-time or part-time has increased over the last 20 years
(Figure 17), although there is some indication that this rate of change has
slowed over the last five years.
In contrast to women in their thirties and forties, fertility rates for women
in their twenties decreased steadily in the UK throughout the 1980s and
1990s. However, since 2001, fertility rates at these ages have stopped
falling and in the 25–29 age group have started to increase. Possible
explanations for this change may be changes in maternity leave, taxation
and benefits for those with children, and also the impact of recent high
levels of international migration to the UK.
Impact of international migration on births
In the decade 1996 to 2005, an estimated 1.8 million women of
childbearing age arrived to live in the UK and 1.1 million UK resident
women of childbearing age left the UK. In 2001, 15 per cent of births
in the UK were to mothers born outside the UK and by 2006 this had
increased to almost 21 per cent of births in the UK. The largest groups
of mothers born outside the UK are those born in Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh, who together accounted for 5 per cent of all births in the
UK in 2006 (Figure 18). The number of births to mothers born in EU
countries other than the UK and the Republic of Ireland increased by 87
per cent between 2001 and 2006 and accounted for almost 4 per cent of
all births in the UK in 2006; this reflects the large impact that expansion
of the EU in 2004 has had upon international migration to the UK.
Although international migration is certainly having an impact on UK
births, the relationship between international migration and fertility is
not at all straight-forward. International migration can affect the number
of births in two different ways. First, it can affect both the size and
age structure of the female population of childbearing age and thus the
number of women who can potentially have children. Analysis of births
in England & Wales in 2006 indicates that net international migration
between mid-2005 and mid-2006 increased the number of births in 2006
by 7,400 solely due to the impact of both immigration and emigration
upon the size and age structure of the UK population (this estimated
impact is based on the assumption that immigrants, emigrants and the
UK population have the same fertility rates).
The second way in which migration can impact on fertility is if there are
differences between the eventual completed family size of in-migrants
and out-migrants compared to the non-migrant population. Migration
may also have an effect on the timing of childbearing, for example if
births are accelerated or postponed around the time of migration, and can
hence affect the period TFR measure.
Age-specific fertility rate
140
Source: Birth registration data, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for
Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
2006
120
2002
100
2006
80
2002
60
UK born
40
20
0
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40+
Age
Source: Birth registration data and populations by country of birth from the Labour Force
Survey, Office for National Statistics
In 2006 the estimated TFR in England and Wales for women born
outside the UK was 2.5, notably higher than the estimated TFR of 1.7
for UK born women (Table 7). However non-UK born women are
not a homogenous group. Some groups have much higher fertility on
average than UK born women, in particular those born in Pakistan and
Bangladesh. Other groups have fertility rates far more similar to those
born in the UK, including women born in other EU countries, Old
Commonwealth countries, China and Hong Kong.
Between 2002 and 2006 in England & Wales, the estimated TFR for
women born in the UK increased from 1.5 to 1.7, while the estimated
TFR for women born outside the UK rose from 2.3 to 2.5. When these
rates are decomposed by age group (Figure 19), the fertility of women
born outside the UK has increased more in the 25–29 and 30–34 age
groups than it has for women born in the UK, and it therefore appears
that international migration, to some extent, has been contributing to the
recent increase in fertility rates in the 25–29 and 30–34 age groups. In
contrast, the small increase in the fertility of women aged 20–24 appears
to have been driven by UK born women.
Similarly, information on women’s intentions with respect to family size
from the General Household Surveys of 2000 to 2005 for Great Britain
show that women born outside the UK have slightly higher intended
family sizes at each age than UK born women. Women born outside the
UK are more likely than UK born women to be intending to have large
families, for example 18 per cent of women born overseas aged 30–34
stated that they intended to have four or more children, compared to just
11 per cent of UK born women of the same age. Analysis of actual family
size indicates that women born overseas are indeed more likely to have
larger families than UK born women, but are also more likely than UK
born women to remain childless.
International migration has clearly had an impact on the number of births
in the UK over recent years. Although it does not on its own explain the
19
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
rise in the TFR for the UK over the past five years, analysis suggests
that it has indeed contributed to this rise. The higher average fertility of
women born overseas, especially those born in countries such as Pakistan
and Bangladesh, is of particular relevance when considered alongside the
relatively young adult age structure of the UK population of Asian ethnic
origin (Figure 6). However, preliminary analysis comparing fertility rates
for, say, women born in Pakistan with women of Pakistani ethnic origin
(which will include second and subsequent generation migrants) suggests
that the fertility of second and subsequent generation migrants is lower
than that of first generation migrants, and may be converging towards the
fertility levels observed for UK born women.
This ‘focus’ section has outlined some of the latest research relating
to fertility in the UK, but more detailed articles on some of the
issues discussed here are planned for future editions of Population
Trends, including an article in the next edition describing in detail the
background to the fertility assumptions used in the latest 2006-based
population projections for the UK.
Looking to the Future
As this article has described, the UK population is currently experiencing
a period of rapid growth, while at the same time becoming increasingly
diverse and mobile. These factors make it increasingly challenging to
measure population change accurately. To respond to this challenge and
the need to improve the quality and coherence of population statistics
across the UK, the National Statistics Centre for Demography (NSCD)
was formed at the end of January 2006. The NSCD work programme16 is
overseen by the UK Population Committee, and advice and guidance are
provided by an Advisory Board of demographic experts.
A key aim of the NSCD work programme is to minimise and better
understand the future divergence between the rolled forward and
Census-based population estimates. When population estimates first
became available based on the 2001 Census they were substantially
lower than those rolled forward from the previous 1991 Census, and
several revisions were subsequently made to the population estimates for
England & Wales following extensive work by ONS to reconcile these
differences. A key objective for our future development work within
NSCD is to ensure that in producing inter-censal population estimates
and projections, methods and data sources are of the highest possible
quality, definitions are relevant to current patterns of population change,
and full use is made of available and future data sources.
It is clear that many of our stakeholders and users of population statistics,
including across central and local government, want to see further
improvements in population and, more specifically, migration data. This
is understandable at a time of significant population change which is
impacting on our economy, society and services. Some improvements
have been introduced by ONS this year to the methods used for producing
population statistics for England & Wales14. Improvements to the methods
for estimating international migration, and more specifically the methods
by which these estimates are distributed between local authority areas
within England & Wales, were introduced in August 2007 when 2006 midyear population estimates for England & Wales were first released.
ONS has also begun to address the need for information on the numbers
and characteristics of people entering and leaving the UK for periods
of less than 12 months. As discussed in this article, such people are not
included in population estimates and projections, but they can, nonetheless,
have a major impact on the economy and service provision, particularly
at a local level. ONS has recently released experimental estimates of
short-term migration stocks and flows for England & Wales using a range
of different definitions3 and further work is planned on the feasibility of
distributing these national estimates down to local authority level.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
20
However, these changes are only steps in the right direction and we
recognise that more needs to be done. Over the past decade, migration
has become the main driver of population change within the UK (Figure
10), and it will continue to be a major focus of future development
work. The report of the inter-departmental Task Force into improving
international migration statistics published last year17 explained the
difficulties associated with accurate measurement and estimation of
migration and stressed the importance of sharing information and
collaborative working across government in order to secure improved
migration statistics. The Task Force made a number of recommendations:
some of the most important of these relate to more comprehensive
counting of people at places of entry and exit to the United Kingdom,
and the potential use of administrative data sources to identify better the
numbers and locations of people in the country at any point in time. In
planning for 2008/09 and beyond, ONS will publish details of how the
recommendations can be taken forward, while recognising that it will
require a significant cross-departmental effort to deliver them. Work on
some of the recommendations is already underway, such as improving
the coherence of reporting on migration across Government.
One specific recommendation of the Task Force was to improve the
targeting of migrants within a port survey, and ONS has recently
reported on an ongoing review of port surveys18. As a result of findings
of the review to date, additional ‘filter shifts’ will be introduced to the
International Passenger Survey in April 2008 to boost the sample size
of migrants travelling through Manchester, Stansted and Luton airports.
These changes are further steps in the right direction and will build
upon the extension of such filter shifts to better capture out-migrants
as well as in-migrants from January 2007. The review team are now
conducting further work in order to recommend more significant changes
from 2009. Similarly, preliminary work has started on seeing how our
household surveys could be strengthened, including some initial scoping
and feasibility work on extending the surveys to cover communal
establishments.
While migration is a key focus of development work within NSCD, it
is not the only area of research. For example, with the aim of giving
users better information on uncertainty and the expected accuracy
of population projections, ONS is currently investigating the use of
stochastic forecasting techniques to produce probabilistic projections
of the UK population. In addition, the Welsh Assembly Government
is currently investigating the possibility of using a different
methodology to produce population projections at local authority
level. This new methodology is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach taking
into account information at a local level and it is hoped that
new population projections for areas in Wales will be published in early
2008.
While most of the development work within NSCD is focussed upon
improving inter-censal estimates and projections of the population, active
input is also being provided into the development of the 2011 Census19
and the Integrated Household Survey. Work is ongoing to ensure that
all population groups are well-defined and enumerated in the Census;
potential new questions are under consideration and data collection
methods are being designed with the overall aim of maximising response.
Together with the implementation of further improvements to inter-censal
population estimates and projections over the coming years, this work
should indeed help to minimise the discrepancy between rolled-forward
and Census-based population estimates in 2011, and to improve the
understanding of whatever level of discrepancy does eventually
occur.
Finally, but also significantly, the NSCD work programme recognises that
the impacts of the current population change need to be worked through
and reported on. ONS and the devolved administrations have been looking
increasingly to free up resources from the production of statistics to carry
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
out more demographic analysis and reporting. Some of this work does
not necessarily have to be done by the National Statistical Office itself but
could be done in partnership with other organisations and we are looking at
possibilities in this area, including with the Economic and Social Research
Council (ESRC). The improvements planned for our population and
migration statistics, coupled with an enhanced level of demographic analysis
and reporting, should improve the quality of what we can offer customers,
for example to support the planning of services, as well as enhance the input
NSCD can make to the policy debate in this area over the coming years.
Notes and References
1 a) Welsh Assembly Government (2007) Wales’s Population: A
Demographic Overview 1971-2005. Available at: http://www.wales.
gov.uk/statistics
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Scotland’s Population
2006: The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic
Trends. Available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/
publications-and-data/annual-report-publications/rgs-annualreview-2006/index.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency
(2007) Registrar General Northern Ireland Report 2006.
Available at: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.
asp?cmsid=20_45&cms=demography_Publications&release=
2 Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK
Population Estimates available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/
nugget.asp?ID=6
3 Office for National Statistics (2007) Research Report on Short-term
Migration. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/
methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/downloads/
STM_Research_Report.pdf
4 Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK
Population Projections available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?id=1352
5 Tomassini (2005): The demographic characteristics of the oldest
old in the United Kingdom, Population Trends 120 and Tomassini
(2006): The oldest old in Great Britain: change over the last 20
years, Population Trends 123. Both available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303
6 Under the provisions of the Pensions Acts of 1995 and 2007, state
pension age will (i) change from 65 years for men and 60 years for
women to 65 years for both sexes by 2020 and then (ii) increase
in three stages to 68 years for both sexes between 2024 and 2046.
Further details are available at: http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_
data/Population/2006/methodology/pensionage.asp
7 Office for National Statistics (2006) Focus on Ethnicity & Identity.
Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/ethnicity/
8 Office for National Statistics (2007). Information on latest
experimental population estimates by ethnic groups available at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14238
9 A household is defined as a person living alone or a group of people
who have the same address as their only or main residence and
with common housekeeping (for example, the 2001 Census defined
this as those who either share one meal a day or share the living
accommodation).
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Wi n t e r 2007
A family is defined as a married or cohabiting couple, with or without
their never-married child(ren) of any age, including lone parents
with their never-married child(ren). A family could also consist of a
grandparent or grandparents with grandchild(ren) if the parents of the
grandchild(ren) are not usually resident in the household.
For further information and analysis, see Office for National
Statistics (2007) Focus on Families. Available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/focuson/families/
a) Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on births
in England & Wales available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?ID=951
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Latest information
on births in Scotland available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/
statistics/births.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (2007) Latest
information on births in Northern Ireland available at: http://www.
nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp?cmsid=20_45_71&cms=demog
raphy_Publications_Births+and+Deaths+Press+Release&release=
a) Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on deaths
in England & Wales available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?ID=952
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Latest information
on deaths in Scotland available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/
statistics/deaths.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (2007) Latest
information on deaths in Northern Ireland available at: http://www.
nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp?cmsid=20_45_71&cms=demog
raphy_Publications_Births+and+Deaths+Press+Release&release=
Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on life
expectancy available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.
asp?id=168
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK Total
International Migration estimates available at: http://www.statistics.
gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=260
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on improved
methods for population statistics revisions in 2007 available at: http://
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834
For example, Rendall and Smallwood (2003): Higher qualifications,
first-birth timing and further childbearing in England and Wales,
Population Trends 111 available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information about the latest
NSCD work programme available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
about/data/methodology/specific/population/default.asp
Report of the inter-departmental Task Force into international
migration statistics, issued December 2006. Available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14731
Office for National Statistics (2007) Interim report on the port survey
review, issued October 2007. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.
uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/
downloads/PSREVIEW.pdf
Office for National Statistics (2007). Latest information on the
development of the 2011 Census available at: http://www.statistics.
gov.uk/census/2011census/news/default.asp
21
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Using data from
overseas to improve
estimates of
emigration
Ercilia Dini, Giles Horsfield
and Lucy Vickers
Office for National Statistics
Introduction
Migration figures are notoriously
problematic to compile, and this
is primarily due to complexities in
establishing the size and composition of
those leaving the UK to live overseas. This
article summarises an Office for National
Statistics (ONS) investigation into the
potential use of data held by countries
receiving UK citizens in order to improve
the accuracy of emigration figures.
Migration involves the movement of a person and their change of
residence from one country to another. This movement obviously affects
the population of two countries and will therefore be recorded twice, once
as immigration to the receiving country and once as emigration from the
exporting country. For the UK, as for many countries, it is more difficult
to collect accurate information on those leaving to live abroad. The simple
reason is that people leaving the country are much harder to estimate as
they are absent, and this applies to both stock and flow estimates.
Household surveys and censuses have difficulties in collecting
information about absent people, particularly when no member of the
household is living in the country of origin. Also, departures generally
tend to be less well recorded than arrivals as governments are often
unable to monitor people emigrating closely, particularly if they are
nationals rather than foreign citizens. Moreover, for the migrant, there is
often little incentive to notify the authorities of their departure.
In the UK, the main source of information for the emigration component
is the International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is a large multipurpose port survey that interviews a sample of travellers1. Although this
survey is essential in the UK as it is the only way that direct estimates of
in and out migration can be made, the sample size is currently relatively
small. Approximately one per cent of those sampled are long-term
migrants (see Box one) and less than half of those are emigrants. In 2005,
the sample size was approximately 3,000 for in-migration and 800 for
out-migration meaning the estimates are subject to considerable sampling
error. The standard errors for estimates of total international in-migration
to the UK and out-migration from the UK were 3.7 per cent and 4.8 per
cent respectively.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
22
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 1
International migration into and out of the UK,
1996 to 2005
600
Number of migrants (thousands)
Like many countries, the UK has more comprehensive sources on
immigration than on emigration. For example, sources such as the Census
and household surveys, while collecting some information on where people
have come from, do not currently collect any information on emigration,
as those people have left the usually resident population and therefore the
sampling frame for the survey. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has
carried out research to investigate the feasibility of running questions on
emigration in household surveys in Great Britain and the findings of a pilot
study were reported in Population Trends 1272. Further research into the
potential for using administrative data sources to support the estimate of
emigration was reported in the previous edition of Population Trends3.
Wi n t e r 2007
550
Inflow
500
450
400
Outflow
350
300
250
While many countries lack reliable estimates of emigration, pooling
information from other countries’ immigration data – which is likely to
be significantly better – may actually improve the validity of the UK’s
emigration estimates. ONS has carried out research to compare migration
flow estimates from the IPS with those of the European Union (EU)
member states prior to May 2004 (except the Republic of Ireland) and
those from non-EU countries where it is known that the countries in
question receive large numbers of UK citizens. The aim was to assess
whether more reliable estimates of out-migration can be obtained by
combining data sources and to explain more fully where and how the
figures from overseas sources are different from the IPS.
Using overseas immigration estimates to
measure emigration
In addition, research work comparing the IPS emigration data with
the stock of UK emigrants resident overseas from the 2000 round
of Censuses, the Labour Force Surveys and other sources held by
international organisations has been carried out to evaluate further the
IPS emigration estimates and to assess the potential for special surveys of
emigrants at destination countries. This article collates research that has
been carried out by ONS over the last two to three years using the most
recently available data at that time. While more up to date information is
now available, the research findings using these data are still valid.
Immigration data held by other countries
Definition of a migrant
ONS migration estimates, which feed into the UK usually resident
population estimates series, are based on the definitions agreed by the
United Nations (UN) for a long-term migrant. This definition is shown in
Box one.
International migration is a key component of population change. The
UK has experienced increasing levels of both inward and outward
international migration in recent years5. Figure 1 shows that over the
past decade migration into the country increased from 314,000 in 1994
to 582,000 in 2004, with most of the increase to inflows occurring after
1997. Out-migration increased more slowly than inflows but to a lesser
extent, from 238,000 in 1994 to 380,000 in 2005.
Box one
United Nations definition of migrants
The United Nations4 recommended definition of a long-term
international migrant is:
A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her
usual residence for a period of a least a year (12 months), so that
the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new
country of usual residence. From the perspective of the country of
departure the person will be a long-term emigrant and from that
of the country of arrival the person will be a long-term immigrant.
200
150
100
50
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 2001
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
When comparing UK estimates of emigration with the information
collected by other countries on immigration, attention needs to be paid
to definitional limitations, coverage and accuracy problems. Generally,
immigration data are considered to be more accurate, but this does not
mean that for any given flow, the immigration estimate is more accurate
than the corresponding emigration figure. However, data collected by
other countries can be seen as a promising potential data source, to both
estimate missing data or to improve existing figures.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
and Eurostat created a Task Force to assess the feasibility of using a
receiving country’s immigration data to measure emigration. As part
of this work, the Task Force developed guidelines6 on how to measure
emigration of stocks and flows in host countries and to assess the
feasibility of doing so, taking into account issues of data suitability,
timeliness and accuracy. According to the guidelines, when using
a specific source of immigration data from a receiving country, the
following require consideration: accuracy of data source, availability
of origin/destination data, coverage, time reference, definition of
international migration, and the availability of metadata. Research
by ONS has concentrated on the flow estimates of the EU members
prior to 2004 (except for the Republic of Ireland for which no IPS
data are available), mainly for data availability reasons, and the nonEU countries of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and
the United States of America, all of which are large receivers of UK
migrants. Norway, Poland and Switzerland were also included.
Box two summarises the data that are available on international migration
for the countries listed above. This shows the wide variety of data sources
that exist across these countries. The final two columns in Box two also
show two further important considerations: firstly, whether the data are
suitable for comparison with the IPS; secondly, whether the IPS estimate
for a particular country is sufficiently robust to allow a useful comparison
to be made. Given the small sample size for some of the individual
countries, estimates will be subject to significant sampling error and will
therefore make analysis difficult.
The most important considerations concern coverage and definitions.
In EU countries, the population universe of the data may be different
from that of the UK where estimates are made for the usually resident
population. Estimates based on a register may relate to legal or present
23
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Box two
Main overseas data sources for immigration flow estimates by country
EU15
Main data source
to estimate flows
Data
availability
UK-born/ UK
citiz/ UK res
Austria
Population register
yes
UK citiz
Belgium
Population register
no
Denmark
Population register
yes
Finland
Population register
no
France
Germany
Greece
2001-2003
No minimum length of stay for inclusion
no
no
Three months residency
no
no
Data provided acc to UN definition of mig
yes
no
Intention of stay of more than one year
yes
no
no
yes
Work permit
no
Population register
yes
UK citiz
1974-2004
At least two months residency
no
no
Census- address 1 yr ago
yes
UK res
2001
Address one year ago
yes
no
Italy
Population register
yes
UK citiz
1998-2001
Three months residency
no
no
Population register
yes
UK citiz
1991-2003
Unclear
no
no
Population register
yes
UK-born
1995-2003
Intention to reside for 4 of next 6 months
no
no
Census- address 1 yr ago
yes
UK res
2001
Address one year ago
yes
no
Netherlands
Spain
Population register
yes
UK res
1995-2004
Six months residency
no
yes
Sweden
Population register
yes
UK res
2000-2004
One or more years of residency
yes
no
Norway
Population register
yes
UK res
1999-2004
Six months residency
no
no
Foreing register
yes
UK res
2001-204
Permanent residency
no
no
Population register
yes
UK citiz
1991-2004
Not known
no
no
Australia
Landing cards on all arrivals
yes
UK citiz
1999-2004
Length of stay of more than 12 months
yes
yes
Canada
Permanent residency permit
yes
UK citiz
2001-2002
People granted permanent residency
no
yes
Landing cards of Permanent or
long stay arrivals/
yes
UK res
1979-2005
Intention of permanent/long stay
yes
yes
Residency applications
yes
UK nationals
1999-2003
Time of granted residency
likely
yes
South Africa
Department of Home Affairs
yes
UK res
2001-2003
Time of granted residency
no
yes
USA
USA Immigration Statistics
Department
yes
UK-born
1998/99–
2001/02
Immigrants admitted by fiscal year
likely
yes
European Poland
Switzerland
Non-EU
1996-2001
IPS data
robust for
single country
comparison
Luxembourg
Portugal
Other
UK citiz
International migrant definition
(as in data source avaliable)
Year/s
Definition
suitable for
comparisons
with IPS
New Zealand
population. This may make it difficult to compare the UK emigration
data with those of countries that obtain their figures using their
population register, for example. Each data source identifies people
that the country considers as international migrants. While there are
UN agreed definitions of migrants, which are used in the UK, other
countries are not always in a position to conform to them, and may
therefore use different time durations to define the place of usual
residence. Therefore, the accuracy of alternative data sources needs to
be understood. However, it is difficult to make an objective assessment
of the accuracy of another source. Estimates from the IPS will also
be subject to sampling error inherent in sample surveys, but some
comparisons for individual countries can be made. Work as part of the
UNECE taskforce made several direct comparisons between the UK
and other European countries: the most robust were France, Portugal
and Spain shown in tables 1a-1c and figure 2. Again, they noted the
wide variety of sources and concepts among the countries involved in
the analysis.
Example European countries: France, Portugal and Spain
Table 1a
Migrants UK to France, recorded by the UK as
emigration and France as immigration (‘000s)
Emigration (UK)
12.6
2.7
1996
14.8
3.2
1997
17.6
3.7
1998
11.8
7.4
Source: UNECE/Eurostat Task Force
Table 1b
Migrants UK to Portugal, recorded by the UK
as emigration and Portugal as immigration
(‘000s)
Emigration (UK)
24
Immigration (Portugal)
1995
3
1996
0.9
0
1997
1.5
0.1
1998
4.6
0.2
1999
1.4
0.7
2000
3.8
0.8
2001
na
0.8
2002
2.1
0.9
2003
0.4
0.9
2004
3.3
0.7
Source: UNECE/Eurostat Task Force
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
Immigration (France)
1995
0
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Table 1c
Example countries that receive large numbers of UK
migrants : Australia, New Zealand and USA
Migrants UK to Spain, recorded by the UK as
emigration and Spain as immigration (‘000s)
Emigration (UK)
Immigration (Spain)
1995
10
1.8
1996
5.2
1.5
1997
10.8
3.6
1998
9.9
5.5
1999
10.7
9.1
2000
18.4
12.4
17.1
2001
22.4
2002
36.7
27.2
2003
37.7
34.2
2004
34.2
46.5
Source: UNECE/Eurostat Task Force
Figure 2
Migration from the UK to Spain, recorded as UK
emigration and Spanish immigration
50
ONS also considered a comparison of the UK IPS outflows with data
recorded as inflows for countries that received large numbers of migrants
from the UK. Where the size of the flow is large, both the figures derived
from the IPS and the sources in other countries will be more accurate
and it is thus possible to make some comparisons. Figure 3 shows the
comparison of IPS estimates of outflows to Australia with data from the
Australian Customs and Immigration for Australian fiscal years (1 July-30
June) 1999-00 to 2002-03. The estimates derived from landing cards for
these years were compared with IPS data for the corresponding quarters/
years. Australian immigration data on UK citizens were broadly similar
to IPS estimates of outflows. IPS estimates in years 1999-00 and 2000-01
were closer to Australian data than the estimates for more recent years.
Figure 4 shows data from the USA Immigration Statistics Department
for the fiscal year (1 July - 30 June) 1999-00 to 2001-02. These were
compared with the estimates of UK-born outflows to the USA in the
corresponding quarters. The estimates derived from the US Immigration
Department were similar to the IPS outflows estimates.
45
40
Figure 3
35
Emigration (UK)
30
25
20
Immigration (Spain)
45
5
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
While the data recorded by Portugal and France show little similarity
with that recorded by the IPS, the figures recorded for Spain follow
much more closely. Some of the differences in the first two tables can
be explained by discrepancies in definition, coverage and recording,
and some attributed to the large standard errors when examining the
IPS for single countries over single years. For these countries it is
difficult to see that the comparisons produce useful results. However,
when the estimates are larger and based on more contacts in the IPS
with subsequently smaller proportional standard errors, as in the case
of Spain, the picture is rather different. For Spain, the trend of growing
numbers of emigrants to that country can be clearly observed, with both
datasets capturing this strong increase. In addition, the estimates of the
total number of migrants captured over the 10-year period are similar
and do not differ statistically.
This analysis has shown that large significant changes can be quality
assured using data from other countries, and also that these figures can be
used to assess the validity of trends over time. Extensive research into the
use of other countries’ data sources to improve estimates further has been
carried out over the last decade by Michel Poulain7. This project looked
at the availability, accuracy and comparability of data on migration across
Europe and concluded that there was an urgent need for more comparable
statistics on migration and asylum.
Rendall and Wright8 further compared the register data of several
European countries with the IPS and also found them to be comparable.
Poulain found that register data is generally more comprehensive in
receiving countries, but that they are subject to varying degrees of noncompliance and also are not uniform in terms of migration definitions (as
seen in Box two).
IPS outflows/Australia
immigration (thousands)
10
0
1995
IPS outflow estimates of UK-citizens (with upper
and lower 95% confidence intervals) to Australia,
and Australian Customs and Immigration data
based on flight passenger cards; Fiscal years
1999–00 to 2002–03
50
15
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999–00
Australia immigration data
IPS outflows
IPS outflow (+2SE IPS)
IPS outflow (–2SE IPS)
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
Fiscal year
Figure 4
USA immigration/IPS flows (thousands)
Number of migrants (thousands)
Wi n t e r 2007
IPS outflow estimates of UK-born (with upper
and lower 95% confidence intervals) to the USA,
and USA data on in-migrants granted
legal residence; Fiscal years 1999–00 to
2001–02
25
20
15
10
5
US immigration
IPS outflow
IPS outflow (+2SE IPS)
IPS outflow (–2SE IPS)
0
1999–00
2000–01
Fiscal year
25
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
2001–02
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
IPS outflows/NZ immigration (thousands)
Figure 5
Win te r 2 0 07
Table 2a
IPS outflow estimates of UK residents (with
upper and lower 95% confidence intervals) to
New Zealand, and New Zealand data on UK
resident arrivals for permanent or long-term
periods; 1999 to 2003
LFS
Citizenship
25
UK
s.e.
20
Non-UK
15
s.e.
10
5
0
1999
Total
NZ immigration data
IPS outflow
IPS outflow (+2SE IPS)
IPS outflow (–2SE IPS)
2000
2001
Calendar year
2002
2003
Figure 5 shows data from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) on UK residents
arriving in New Zealand for permanent or long-term periods (12 months
or more) for calendar years 1999 to 2003, and the IPS outflow to New
Zealand estimated in the corresponding years. The IPS estimates were
very close to the SNZ data.
Data for these three countries are very close to those recorded by the IPS,
indicating again that accessing immigration figures from other countries
would be a useful quality assurance tool, particularly for assessing the
validity of changes in trends. Discrepancies can be attributed mostly to
definitional issues; for example, figures for the UK and Australia are
more similar when only long-term migrants are included in the definition.
Work as part of the UNECE/Eurostat task force also compared the UK
with these large receivers and produced comparable results.
When using figures collected by other countries in their measurement of
international migration, it is important to take into account the differences
in definition, data collection systems, coverage and data quality. In
addition, care must be taken when using the IPS data for emigration to
single countries as the standard errors on these estimates will be relatively
large, making it more difficult to draw conclusions. While ideally for
this kind of analysis, one would have common definitions of migration
and population and statistics that were of high quality with no or reduced
standard errors, this is rarely the case in reality. This ONS research has
shown that useful comparisons can be made with the immigration data
from other countries, particularly where there are large numbers of
emigrants and where definitions can be made as similar as possible.
Alternative immigration data sources – the
Labour Force Survey
The comparative analysis described above faces many empirical
challenges with the comparability of international migration data between
countries and sources. The European Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) can
be seen as an alternative to the traditional sources of immigration. The
obvious advantage is that they are designed to be comparable across the
European Union. Rendall and Wright8 carried out research to assess this
alternative as a source of immigration data. This research built on earlier
work9 using the LFS question on place of residence one year before the
survey, and combined data for a number of years to reduce problems of
uncertainty inherent when using results from a sample survey.
Both IPS and LFS produce sample-based estimates, so data for any one
year for a particular country will have correspondingly high standard
errors; therefore the flows were aggregated. There is concern that there
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
26
Total immigration from the UK to the continental
European Union* by citizenship. Years 1997–2002
aggregated (1996 to 2001 for IPS)
Number
(‘000)
IPS
Per cent
Number
(‘000)
Per cent
32.2
234.4
57.6
79.4**
(4.6, 7.7)
18.7
167.2
67.8
172.7
(6.6, 11.2)
42.4
12.7
246.5**
100.0
40.7
100.0
s.e.
(8.1, 13.6)
22.55
Notes:
* Excludes Republic of Ireland and Sweden for all years and Netherlands for 2000–02
**Statistically significant difference between the LFS estimates and the IPS estimate at p<0.05
s.e. = standard error. The lower and upper bounds of the LFS standard errors are calculated
respectively assuming a simple random sample and assuming a design effect due to
clustering of 2.85
would be differentially high non-response for migrants, particularly
recent ones, owing to language difficulties. This would potentially lower
response rates for newly arriving, but not returning, migrants. Also,
there is concern that the LFS would not collect illegal migration. In both
cases, it may be expected that there will be differences in the quality
of the migration estimates. While the European LFSs are generally
considered to produce comparable data across Europe, the production
of international migration estimates are likely to push the survey to its
limits. The LFS, being a household-based survey, excludes communal
establishments and the institutional population, some of whom may be
migrants. Additionally, it is possible for the newly-arrived household to
be excluded from the sampling frame in their first year of residence, and
therefore miss answering the ‘where did you live one year ago’ question.
Table 2a shows the comparison of the two data sources for immigration
from the UK to Europe divided between UK and non-UK citizenship. The
table shows that there are statistically different total numbers of migrants
recorded by the two surveys, but that this is not consistent across the
citizenship groups. Continental EU migrants that are returning from the
UK are accurately estimated by the LFS, but in contrast the number of UK
citizens are under estimated. This analysis can be broken down into the
major receiving countries but it is only for Spain, Germany and France that
the IPS estimates are sufficiently robust to make comparisons.
Table 2b compares the register-based estimates with those from the two
surveys, showing closer correspondence with those derived from the IPS
than with those from LFSs. So, while the LFS compares favourably for
the return migrants to Europe, the IPS is much better at estimating flows
of UK citizens. Rendall and Wright concluded that migrant flows tend
to be poorly estimated by the LFS, with returning citizens the exception;
accordingly for this group the LFS may be a useful tool to inform and
quality assure estimates from the IPS.
Table 2b
Country
Germany
s.e.
Spain
s.e.
Total immigration from the UK to Germany
and Spain. Years 1997–2002 aggregated
(1996 to 2001 for IPS)
LFS
IPS
Register
Number
(‘000)
Number
(‘000)
Number
(‘000)
51.1
95.0
(3.6, 6.1)
10.8
21.4
77.3
(2.1, 3.6)
8.3
97.3
74.9
Notes:
s.e. = standard error. The lower and upper bounds of the LFS standard errors are calculated
respectively assuming a simple random sample and assuming a design effect due to
clustering of 2.85
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Using information held on the stock of UK
citizens abroad
In order to evaluate the IPS emigration figures further, and to assess
the potential for surveys of emigrants at specific destination countries,
overseas data sources on UK nationals residing abroad can be examined.
ONS carried out research into three alternative data sources:
• Comparing IPS outflows with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) collated time series10 on the
stock of the UK born and UK nationals residing overseas;
• Comparing the IPS outflows with stocks of UK immigrants found in
the LFS data for other European countries; and
• Comparing the IPS outflows with the OECD-compiled 2000 round of
Census data on stocks of UK born emigrants resident overseas.
Two methods of comparison were used. For the first two analyses detailed
above, IPS net outflow was compared with the difference in stock figures
for two points in time. For the third analysis the duration of stay recorded
in the various censuses were compared with IPS outflows and net outflows.
OECD data on immigrants and expatriates
OECD has compiled a database on the stock of the foreign born and
foreign nationals for 1996-2001 (with the exception for the United States
of America where the data are for 1990-2000) by taking data from member
countries. This is designed to compile information on immigrants and
expatriates in OECD countries, to permit international comparisons. Source
data include censuses, residence permits and population registers. With this
diversity comes inherent differences in the definitions, coverage and quality,
so a cautious approach is required.
Table 3a shows comparisons between the OECD-compiled stocks data
and IPS net outflow. Substantial differences can be seen for Australia
and Canada, but there is a closer picture for the USA, Netherlands and
the Scandinavian countries. The main differences can be attributed to the
differing definitions of migrants.
Table 3a
Wi n t e r 2007
European LFS data
As described above, and in a paper by Rendall et al (2003), the LFS has
a more common approach across Europe and contains four variables of
interest: nationality, country of birth, previous country of residence and
number of years of residence in the member state. While potentially the
latter variable provides a good ‘foothold’ to provide consistent analysis
for stocks, further investigation suggested that member states were
using different starting points for counting years of residence, despite
common explanatory notes. Moreover, countries used different starting
points, such as date of first entry, date of most recent entry and date
of registration. So, while the LFS would appear to produce a common
ground for compiling stock figures on migrants, concerns have been
highlighted regarding the quality of the results, particularly due to the
coverage of the population, bias in the results, and data quality. Particular
problems surround the measurement of recent migrants as they may be
absent from the sample frame owing to differential time lags that exist
in accepting them into the population registers in the various countries.
Concerns have also been raised as to the ability of recent migrants to
respond to the LFS, particularly owing to language difficulties, and also
to illegal migrants wishing to evade government-run surveys.
As sample sizes for migrants in both the LFS and the IPS are small,
data are combined to facilitate comparisons. Table 3b shows some
comparisons that have been made. Despite the potential difficulties, this
is a useful data source for making comparisons. There is correspondence
between the two data sources, particularly when the figures are pooled
over multiple years and across countries.
Data from the 2000 round of Censuses
The OECD has compiled a database of the stocks of UK-born emigrants
living abroad by the length of time spent in residence at the time of the
2000 round of censuses in the host country. Data used in this analysis are
from the receiving countries of Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand,
Spain and the USA. Comparisons are made between the IPS outflows
and net outflows of the UK-born and the OECD-compiled stocks of UK-
OECD data for the difference in stocks of UK-born living abroad between 1996 and 2001; the sum of IPS net outflows and
IPS inflows, and outflows (weighted sample and sampling errors) for years 1997–2001
OECD 1996 & 2001
UK-born living in
IPS 1997-2001
difference in stocks
Sum of net outflows
Inflows
(N)
(n)*
(n)*
(se)
(n)*
Outflows
(se)
Australia
-36,300
66,287
52,846
4,556
119,133
6,268
Canada
-49,535
9,886
15,328
3,525
25,214
3,845
Netherlands
6,223
6,304
14,268
3,775
20,572
4,346
Scandinavian countries**
4,095
6,463
4,652
1,540
11,115
3,029
37,606
47,070
103,527
6,900
150,597
7,612
United States
Notes:
Australia: OECD reference period is 30 June; IPS data refers to 1996-2000; United States: OECD refers to 1990-2000 and IPS to 1990-1999
* weighted sample
**Scandinavian countries: Demmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden
Table 3b
EU–LFSs data for the difference in stocks of UK-born living abroad between 2000 and 2004; the sum of IPS net outflows
and IPS inflows, and outflows (weighted sample and sampling errors) for years 1999–2003
EU-LFSs 2000 & 2004
UK-born living in
Other EU countries**
Scandianvian countries***
Spain
All European countries
IPS 1999-2003
Difference in stocks
Sum of net outflows
Inflows
n(w)*
n(w)*
n(w)*
(se)
n(w)*
Outflows
(se)
77,831
55,710
61,196
8,755
116,905
11,335
1,836
3,715
4,782
2,056
8,498
2,532
73,030
62,495
20,390
4,755
82,885
9,361
152,697
121,920
86,367
10,173
208,288
14,917
Notes:
Czech Republic: EU-LFS difference in stocks for years 2002 and 2004; IPS sum of net outflows for years 2001-03
Spain: IPS data includes Spain, Balearic and Canary Islands.
* weighted sample
** Other EU countries included: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Portugal
***Scandinavian countries: Demmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden
27
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Win te r 2 0 07
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
quarters to produce estimates that best correspond to the actual length of
time abroad. Box three shows how the data have been combined to make
these comparisons possible.
born derived from census data provided from the host country, based on
length of time abroad. The IPS data measure the intention to migrate for
more than 12 months. For comparisons with the length of time abroad,
IPS data referring to the year before the respective census in the host
country are used. The censuses also record the stock of the overseas
born that have resided in the host country for more than one year; to
facilitate a comparison with this, IPS data are combined for a number of
The comparisons for each country are shown in table 3c and figures
6a–6f. UK emigration data include only those estimated by the IPS as
intending to stay for a year or more. They exclude those people who
Box three
IPS quarter/year(s) used for comparisons; UK-born outflows by country of residence and length of time abroad.
UK-born country of residence Census month/year in country
of residence
Australia
UK-born length of time in country of residence
< = 1 year
Aug-01
Canada
May-01
France
Mar-99
New Zealand
Mar-01
Spain
Nov-01
USA
Apr-00
>1 & <=3 years
>3 & <=5 years
>5 & <=10 yrs
IPS
IPS
IPS
IPS
Q34 2000
Q12 2000
Q12 1998
Q12 1996
Q12 2001
Q1234 1999
Q1234 1997
Q1234 92-95
Q34 1998
Q34 1996
Q34 1991
IPS
Q12 2000
Q12 1998
Q12 1996
Q34 2000
Q1234 1999
Q1234 1997
Q1234 92-95
Q12 2001
Q34 1998
Q34 1996
Q34 1991
IPS
IPS
IPS
IPS
Q1 1999
Q1 1998
Q1 1996
Q1 1994
Q234 1998
Q1234 1997
Q1234 1995
Q1234 90-93
Q234 1996
Q234 1994
Q234 1989
IPS
IPS
IPS
IPS
Q1 2001
Q1 2000
Q1 1998
Q1 1996
Q234 2000
Q1234 1999
Q1234 1997
Q1234 92-95
Q234 1998
Q234 1996
Q234 1991
IPS
IPS
IPS
Q1234 2001
Q1234 1999
Q1234 1997
Q1234 2000
Q1234 1998
Q 1234 92-96
Q1 2000
Q1 1999
Q1 1997
Q1 1995
Q234 1999
Q1234 1998
Q1234 1996
Q1234 91-94
Q234 1997
Q234 1995
Q234 1990
UK-born IPS outflows/sum of outflows and OECD-compiled stocks of UK-born from the 2000 round of censuses;
data by host country and length of time of residence abroad
Table 3c
Census
month/
year in
UK-born
country of country of
residence residence
UK-born length of time in country of residence
< = 1 year
OECD
N
>1 & <=3 years
IPS*
IPS
sum of outflows
95% CI
n(w)
se
lower
OECD
upper
N
>3 & <=5 years
IPS*
IPS
sum of outflows
95% CI
n(w)
se
lower
upper
OECD
N
>5 & <=10 years
IPS*
IPS
sum of outflows
95% CI
n(w)
se
lower
upper
OECD
N
IPS*
IPS
sum of outflows
95% CI
n(w)
se
lower
upper
Australia
Aug-01 17,494 33,352
3,592 26,311 40,392 19,755 49,527
4,366 40,971 58,084 16,593 39,551
3,274 33,134 45,969 38,633 87,081
4,702 77,865 96,296
Canada
May-01
1,200
3,478
1,420
695
6,262
7,785
7,759
2,243
3,362 12,155
5,975
8,541
2,047
4,528 12,554 19,675 13,880
2,113
France
Mar-99
8,321
4,663
2,172
406
8,920
6,078 17,499
5,518
6,684 28,314
5,314
9,975
3,078
3,942 16,008 14,532 40,423
6,321 28,033 52,812
New
Zealand
Mar-01
4,350
6,253
1,378
3,551
8,954
6,861
9,437
1,552
6,396 12,479
6,579 12,480
1,828
8,898 16,062 11,820 20,254
2,716 14,930 25,577
Spain
Nov-01 12,540
8,945
3,285
2,507 15,384 11,880 13,906
3,383
7,274 20,538
7,500 14,712
3,996
6,880 22,544 13,420 29,612
5,200 19,419 39,804
USA
Apr-00 31,660 15,636
2,924 19,123 30,587 62,905 58,421
4,459 49,681 67,161
2,842 10,066 21,205 35,760 25,045
* IPS sum of outflows reference period is shown in Box three.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
28
3,111 18,947 31,142 28,794 24,855
9,738 18,021
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 6a
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in Australia by length of residence
Figure 6d
105
UK-born IPS flows/
New Zealand resident (thousands)
UK-born IPS flows/
Australia resident (thousands)
75
IPS outflow
IPS net outflow
60
45
30
15
0
Figure 6b
<1
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in Canada by length of residence
CENSUS
25
20
5
Figure 6e
UK-born IPS flows/
Spain resident (thousands)
UK-born IPS flows/
Canada resident (thousands)
IPS outflow
10
5
30
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in Spain by length of residence
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
5–10
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in France by length of residence
IPS outflow
IPS net outflow
10
Figure 6f
<1
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
5–10
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in the USA by length of residence
80
CENSUS
CENSUS
IPS outflow
UK-born IPS flows/
USA resident (thousands)
UK-born IPS flows/
France resident (thousands)
5–10
20
0
<1
60
40
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
CENSUS
IPS net outflow
50
<1
40
15
Figure 6c
IPS net outflow
10
CENSUS
0
IPS outflow
15
0
5–10
25
20
UK-born IPS outflows (with 95% CI), net outflows
and OECD Census-based data on UK-born resident
in New Zealand by length of residence
30
CENSUS
90
Wi n t e r 2007
IPS net outflow
30
20
10
60
IPS outflow
IPS net outflow
40
20
0
–10
<1
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
5–10
enter as a visitor and whose intentions change, causing their stay to be
extended, for example, for reasons of study or upon marriage.
For some of the countries (Canada, France and Spain), because sample
sizes for the UK-born residing abroad are small, the figures should
be treated with caution. When net outflows are used there is close
correspondence between the two datasets for France and for Spain. For
New Zealand and Australia, similar results can be seen for all lengths
of stay. For Canada, the comparisons are close with the exception of
the longer lengths of stay where the Canadian Census counted larger
0
<1
1–3
3–5
Time in host country (years)
5–10
numbers of UK-born than those counted as emigrating from the UK by
the IPS. One explanation may be that at the time of leaving the UK, the
intention was that of a visitor, but this was subsequently extended to a
longer period. For the USA, there is a similar picture to that of Canada,
with larger numbers of the UK-born counted in the census than recorded
by the IPS. Again, this difference could result from changing intentions.
In these comparisons, it is not possible to isolate UK-born migrants that
have arrived in the receiving country by way of a third country, so this
may also account for some of the differences.
29
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Overall there is good concurrence between the IPS estimates of UKborn emigration and the OECD-compiled Census data on the stock of
UK-born. For this analysis only selected countries have been used to
investigate the usefulness of the data, and the analysis of net outflows was
not split by age and sex. In addition, census stocks data would inevitably
include movements via a third country. Therefore the analysis does not
necessarily challenge the conclusions drawn following the 2001 Census,
that net migration to the UK over the two decades 1981-2001 had been
over estimated. These analyses have shown that while overseas censuses
data could not be used directly to estimate UK emigrants, they provide a
useful quality assurance tool.
Conclusions
Emigration is the most difficult component of population change to
measure, and for this reason it is important to make use of other data
sources that are available. As emigrants leave the UK, they are recorded
in the population and migration figures of the country to which they
have moved. Datasets held by other National Statistical Institutes (NSIs)
on the flow of migrants from the UK and the stock of UK citizens are a
potential source for improving the quality of UK emigration estimates.
ONS research has concluded that while these figures are not suitable
for use directly to produce estimates, it is possible to take into account
differences in definitions, coverage and quality in the data sources held
in other countries, thus providing the potential for quality assurance,
and to assess changes in underlying trends. ONS will continue to keep
possible alternative data sources under review as part of its wider work
programme to improve the quality of population and migration statistics.
This paper has reported on work carried out by ONS to take forward
a recommendation of an earlier review of the quality of international
migration statistics11. The recommendation was to investigate the
potential of overseas data sources to assist in the estimation of
international migration. ONS will continue to investigate this further as
datasets improve and new datasets become available. This research is
part of a wider programme of work. Owing to the importance attached to
the availability of more robust migration statistics, ONS is undertaking a
substantial programme of work to improve the methods and data sources
that are used to estimate migration and population12. Research carried
out within the improvement programme will be reported in Population
Trends and on the National Statistics website.
There are several streams of work covering both new statistics such as the
estimates of short-term migrants; improving the use of existing sources
of information (for example, improvements were made to the IPS, and
from 2007 there has been additional sampling to improve the estimates of
emigrants); making better use of administrative sources; and developing
new or revised sources (for example, a review of port surveys is being
undertaken). Earlier papers reported on population definitions research13
and the feasibility of estimating short-term migrants14, and further papers
are planned for future issues of Population Trends.
In addition, in May 2006 the National Statistician set up an interdepartmental Task Force to recommend timely improvements that could
be made to estimates of international migration and migrant populations
in the UK, both nationally and at local levels. The inter-departmental
nature of the Task Force facilitated more cross-governmental working
and sharing of information. The Task Force reported in December 2006
and further recommendations will be produced during 200715.
The authors would like to thank Jean-Christophe Dumont and Gilles
Spielvogel from the OECD team for the International Migration project
and Jonny Johansson from EUROSTAT for providing data.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
30
Key findings
•• Immigration data held by other countries are a potential source to
assist in the estimation of emigration from the UK
•• There are widespread differences in data quality, coverage and
definitions of the population and migration figures held by other
countries
•• Due to the difficulties in producing comparable data, immigration
estimates from overseas cannot be used directly to estimate UK
emigration, but do provide a useful source of figures for quality
assurance, particularly for countries where the flow of migrants is large
•• Data from the European LFSs can be used to assess the IPS
estimates of returning European migrants
•• Data held on the stock of UK-born in other countries cannot be used
directly, but can provide a further useful source for quality assurance
References
1. Office for National Statistics (2006) Travel Trends. Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=1391
2. Evans H, Chappell R and Wright E (2007) Using the Omnibus Survey
to test questions on emigration. Population Trends 127, p 15-20
3. Evans H, Vickers L and Wright E (2007) Using administrative
sources in the estimation of emigration. Population Trends 128
4. United Nations Statistics Division (1998) Recommendations on
Statistics on International Migration, revision 1. Available from
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/gesgrid.asp?id-116
5. Office for National Statistics (2007) International Migration 2005,
series MN no.32. Available at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.
asp?vlnk=507
6. UNECE/ Eurostat Conference of European Statisticians, Guidelines
for measuring emigration through use of immigration statistics of
receiving countries. Available from http://www.unece.org/stats/
documents/ece/ces/ge.10/2006/wp.5.e.pdf.
7. Poulain M, Perrin N, Singleton A (2007) THESIM: Towards
Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration.
8. Rendall M and Wright E (2004) Survey and Population estimates of
recent international migration flows in Europe. Paper presented at
the EAPS migration workshop
9. Rendall M, Tomassini C and Elliot D (2003) Estimation of the annual
immigration from the LFS of the United Kingdom and continental
Europe, Statistical Journal of the UNECE, 20 (3-4): 219- 234.
Available at www:statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/quality_review/
downloads/sju00560.pdf.
10. OECD Database on immigrants and expatriates. Available from
http://www.oecd.org/document/51/0,3343,en_2825_494553_340630
91_1_1_1_1,00.html
11. Office for National Statistics (2004) Review of International migration
statistics, NSQR series report no 23. Available at www.statistics.
go.uk/about/data/methodology/quality/reviews/population.asp
12. Office for National Statistics (2006) Updates from the Improving
Migration and Population Statistics Project. Available at www.
statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/
imps/updates/default.asp
13. Smith CW and Jefferies J (2006) Population bases and statistical
provision: towards a more flexible future? Population Trends 124, 18-24
14. Smith J and Sharfman A (2007) Assessing the feasibility of making
short-term migration estimates. Population Trends 127, p21-29.
15. Office for National Statistics (2006) The Report of the Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics. Available at www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=14731
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
Migration trends
at older ages in
England and Wales
Zoe Uren and Shayla Goldring
Ageing Unit
Office for National Statistics
Information on the behaviour and
characteristics of our rapidly growing older
population is of increasing importance to
policy makers, who want to ensure a good
quality of life for our elderly.
This article uses data from the Office for
National Statistics Longitudinal Study
(1971–2001) to illustrate trends in
migration at older ages. It shows how
the propensity to migrate differs by age,
sex, marital status, living arrangements,
economic resources and health in later
life, amongst people aged 50 and over
in England and Wales. Results show that
moves at older ages are associated with
changes in health and living arrangements,
but also that these associations are interrelated with other factors such as age.
Introduction
High fertility in the 1950s and falling mortality rates have raised the
proportion of the population aged over 50 in Great Britain and in other
developed countries.1 This trend will continue as the 1960s baby boomers
age and are replaced in the older working population by smaller numbers
of people born since the 1960s. Even though fertility has risen recently, the
number of people being born is still fewer than was the case in the 1960s.
By 2031 it is projected that 39 per cent of the total population in England
and Wales will be aged 50 and over, compared with 34 per cent in 2006.2
As more people than ever before are reaching older ages, numerous
discussions about the possible social, economic and behavioural impacts
have emerged. Some see the impacts of this changing age structure as a
positive phenomenon where older people will contribute more to society
through the third sector (comprising charities and other non-profit making
organisations). Others see it as an additional burden on the state and
resources.
Concerns about population ageing centre around financing pensions
and the provision of healthcare and welfare services to older people as
the ratio of the economically active to the economically inactive falls.1
In order to make policy decisions that will ensure the impact of an
increasingly ageing population is largely positive, more information is
needed on the transitions people make throughout their later life, and the
socio-demographic factors associated with them.
There is also interest in the age distribution of local area population as
studies in England and Wales have shown that the proportion of older
people differs across geographical areas.3,4 The main reason for these
differences is the migration of people aged between 20 and 59, however
31
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
migration at older ages, regional variations in fertility and mortality rates
also affect the age distribution of local populations. Older people are the
biggest consumers of health and social services, so this redistribution has
important implications for the planners and providers of these provisions.
Migration behaviour is closely associated with events occurring
during the life course.5,6 Although migrations amongst older people
are considerably fewer than for younger age groups, the motivation for
migration can be very different from those of younger migrants.
market. Limitations of the 10-year indicator include the propensity to
introduce bias, as this measure only includes those people enumerated at the
beginning of the period who are still there 10 years later. Thus people who
died, emigrated or immigrated between censuses or whose data were not
linked in the ONS-LS8 are excluded from the analysis. In addition it is not
possible to determine the number of moves a person has taken during the
10-year period. One person may have moved several times, whereas another
may have moved only once. Similarly, any moves taking place in the
decades between the 1981 and 2001 Censuses that resulted in the individual
living in the same Enumeration District (ED) will not have been picked up.
This article provides descriptive analyses of internal migration patterns
amongst the population aged 50 and over, in England and Wales, using
the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS). It
reviews migration trends over the 30 years leading up to the 2001 Census
and assesses whether the propensity to migrate amongst older people
has changed over time. In addition, it will reconsider factors shown to be
associated with migration at older ages in previous studies, to establish
whether they are still important.
Previous studies of the migration of older people in England and Wales
have used data from the census5 and the ONS-LS.3,11 This article provides a
descriptive analysis of 10-year migration patterns of people aged 50 and over
from 1971 onwards, using the ONS-LS. Migration was indicated by whether
an individual had changed address between successive censuses. More
information on how this measure was derived can be found in Box one.
Data sources
The results provide insight into migration patterns for different social and
demographic groups within the population between successive censuses.
These analyses include separate but overlapping populations who were
present at each (or all) of the censuses.
In the UK there is no legal obligation to register a change of address,7
therefore limited data are available to measure internal migration,
particularly over a long time series. In recent decades, questions on
migration have featured in national surveys such as the Labour Force
Survey and the General Household Survey, but these sources only
provide an annual snapshot of general trends. In addition, only a small
number of older people sampled would have migrated in each year.
Therefore, the use of these sources is limited when examining migration
trends of specific groups or their characteristics.
Eventually the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing may become the
main source for similar studies, but it is currently in its infancy and
analyses of trends over time are not yet possible. A further limitation
is that any analysis would be restricted to England, as there are no
equivalent studies for the rest of the UK.
In each census taken from 1961 onwards, respondents have been asked
whether they have moved in the last 12 months (and in 1961 and in 1971,
whether they had moved in the last five years). This allows analysis of
migration in the year prior to census for the whole population of England
and Wales, by an array of social, demographic and economic characteristics.
In addition to census data we also have the ONS-LS which links
decennial census information for one per cent of the population in
England and Wales since 1971, along with their registration data.
Information from the 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses is linked with
life events information (births, deaths and cancer registration). The ONSLS is a dynamic sample, as some members are lost to the study through
emigration (moving to another country and settling) and death, and
new members enter the study through birth and immigration.8 Sample
selection is based on birth dates, using four dates (day and month) to
create a sample which is representative of the population of England
and Wales.9 The ONS-LS provides a rich data source, with coverage that
supports research into the life course and inter-generational transitions.
The ONS-LS has been used to investigate a range of outcomes including
health and employment, as well as internal migration.10
The ONS-LS enables migration patterns to be analysed over the 10 years
between each census and also for the year prior to each census from 1971
onwards. Measuring migration over a 10-year interval produced larger
samples than migration over a single year prior to each census. With larger
samples it is possible to analyse specific groups of the population and their
characteristics. One of the problems with one-year migration is that it can
be influenced by other factors, such as short term fluctuations in the housing
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
32
Table 1 shows the number of ONS-LS members aged 50 and over at the
time of each census. There is a large difference between 1991 and 2001
in the number of people aged 50 and over. This is due to growth in the 50
to 54 and 55 to 59 age groups, which is the result of ageing of the postSecond World War baby boomers. While the largest absolute increases
have been for the 50 to 54 and 55 to 59 age groups, the largest percentage
increases occurred in the 50 to 54 and 80 and over age groups. The large
percentage increase in the population aged 80 and over in the ONS-LS is
partly a result of the peak in fertility after the First World War and partly
due to continuing declines in mortality.
Box one
Ten-year migration indicator
The 10-year migration indicator identifies whether an ONS-LS
member changed address between two censuses.
Migration between 1971 and 1981: The addresses recorded
on the 1971 and 1981 Census forms were compared by hand,
when the addresses were different a migrant flag was added to
the LS member’s record. Migrant flags were created for movers to
and from communal establishments as well as movers between
private households. Many studies have used these migrant flags
to study migration.11, 12
Migration between 1981 and 1991: The migration indicator
was derived by measuring the straight line distance between
the centroids of Enumeration District of usual residence at each
census. Where this distance was greater than 500 meters the LS
member was assumed to have moved. Only people living in private
households in both 1981 and 1991 were given migration codes.13
Migration between 1991 and 2001: Postcodes of usual
address at each census were compared. The National Statistics
Postcode Directory was used to check the dates of introduction/
termination of postcodes and to allocate the usual address of
LS members to a consistent geography for both 1991 and 2001.
LS members who changed postcode were identified as migrants.
All persons, including communal establishment residents, were
assigned migration indicators.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Table 1
Number of people in the ONS Longitudinal Study aged
50 and over in 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001, by five-year
age groups (age at census), England and Wales
1971
1981
1991
2001
50–54
31,580
30,664
29,835
38,099
55–59
33,229
31,399
28,364
31,658
60–64
30,429
27,797
27,836
27,476
65–69
25,960
26,982
26,796
25,033
70–74
18,962
22,261
21,641
22,429
75–79
12,505
15,803
18,288
18,950
80+
11,719
14,202
19,735
22,998
Total
164,384
169,108
172,495
186,643
Percentages migrating between censuses, among
the population aged 50 and over, according to age,
males only, 1971–2001, England and Wales
50
1971–81
1981–91
45
1991–2001
Percentage
Age group
Figure 1a
Wi n t e r 2007
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
40
35
30
25
Results
20
50–54
Migration trends at older ages, 1971–2001
The analyses in this section are based on longitudinal data, and compare
the migration experiences of people aged 50 and over between three time
periods: 1971–81, 1981–91 and 1991–2001. The age groups refer to the
ONS-LS member’s age at census at the beginning of each period. It is
important to note that these populations only include ONS-LS members
who were enumerated at both the start and end of each decade, thus the
migration estimates exclude all moves of people who had died or were
lost to follow-up.
Figure 1b
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
Age at start of decade
75–79
80+
Percentages migrating between censuses, among
the population aged 50 and over, according to age,
females only, 1971–2001, England and Wales
50
1971–81
1981–91
45
Figures 1(a) and 1(b) show the migration rates for each of the three
decades, for males and females respectively. For each inter-censal period,
around two thirds of people aged over 50 years of age were reported to be
living at the same address as 10 years previously.
For all decades, migration rates were highest in the population aged
between 55 and 65. These are most likely to be moves associated with
retirement from paid employment, whereby the mover hopes to gain
improvements in their lifestyle (social life and access to amenities).5
Overall the migration rates for men and women aged 50 and over were
very similar in each decade. However, when broken down by age, some
differences were evident. For 1971–1981 and 1991–2001 in particular,
Box two
Census enumeration
•• Census data prior to 2001 were collected based on enumeration
districts. In 2001 individual addresses were recorded using grid
referencing.
•• In 1991 migration indicators were not available for residents in
communal establishments.
•• In 2001 individuals were enumerated at their place of usual
residence only; therefore, for consistency, only usual residents are
included in the data for 1971, 1981 and 1991 (all records for
visitors are excluded from the analyses).
Percentage
1991–2001
Information was collected and recorded slightly differently in each census.
For comparability, unless otherwise stated, visitors and people living in
communal establishments, such as residential and nursing homes, at the
beginning and end of each intercensal period, have been excluded from
the analyses. The adjustments are explained in further detail in Box two.
Excluding the residents of communal establishments means that a large
proportion of moves that are often associated with declines in health are
not included. For this reason moves from private residences to communal
establishments are examined separately in the health and care section.
40
35
30
25
20
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
Age at start of decade
75–79
80+
Note: Minimum sample size 196.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
males and females in the younger age groups have similar rates, but
females aged 80 and over are substantially more likely to migrate than
males. This could be explained by women’s higher life expectancy and
the tendency for men to marry younger women. Thus women are more
likely to be widowed first and are therefore more likely to need to seek
care outside of the household, which can result in a move to be closer to
a relative or other carer.14,15
Migration and the geographical distribution of
older people
Studies carried out in the UK and other developed countries have shown
that the age structure of a population varies by geography. Three main
processes have been identified that result in higher proportions of older
people in regional and local populations:
•
Out-migration of younger people;
•
In-migration of elderly people; and
•
In-migration of non-elderly people who then ‘age in place’.4
The majority of migratory moves take place between 20 and 40 years
of age and indicate the importance of ‘ageing in place’ as a driver of
33
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Figure 2
Migration by county of departure, 1991 – 20011
England & Wales
Per cent
15.7 or over
10.6 to 15.6
6.9 to 10.5
4.5 to 6.8
3.1 to 4.4
under 3.1
Isles of Scilly
1 Data refer to the percentages of the 1991 ONS-LS population in a county, aged 50 and over at the time of the 1991 Census, who migrated to another county between 1991 and 2001
Source: 2001 (1991) Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study
Figure 3
Migration by county of destination, 1991 – 2001
England & Wales
Per cent
18.0 or over
15.3 to 17.9
9.5 to 15.2
3.2 to 9.4
2.1 to 3.1
under 2.1
Isles of Scilly
1 Data refer to the percentages of the 2001 ONS-LS population in a county, aged 50 and over at the time of the 1991 Census, who migrated from another county between 1991 and 2001
Source: 2001 (1991) Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study
Win te r 2 0 07
local population ageing. However, as our ageing population grows at an
increasing pace with the baby-boomers starting to reach retirement, the
migration of elderly people will take on greater importance.
Previous studies have shown the highest proportions of older people in
England and Wales tend to be found in coastal areas.16 The percentage of
the population aged 50 and over is highest in the South West and Wales
(at 38 per cent and 37 per cent respectively, compared with 34 per cent
for England and Wales as a whole). Similarly, the percentages aged 85
and over are highest in the South West, South East and also Wales (all
four per cent compared with two per cent for England and Wales as a
whole). The lowest proportions of older people can be found in and
around London and the North East.
With the ONS-LS it is possible to analyse geographical variation in
migration using information on postcode of enumeration at 1991 and
2001. Much of the variation in the proportions of older people residing
within a region results from migration.
The counties that experienced the largest percentages of people aged 50 and
over moving to other counties (out-migrants) between 1991 and 2001 are
concentrated in and around London; Inner and Outer London (20 per cent
and 15 per cent of moves made by those aged 50 and over respectively),
Surrey (15 per cent), Berkshire (14 per cent), Hertfordshire (13 per cent)
and Buckinghamshire (12 per cent) (Figure 2). These findings support those
of other studies, highlighting that London is not a desirable destination for
retirement, with its large overall net exodus of older migrants.4
The counties with the highest percentages of people aged 50 and over
migrating from other counties (in-migrants) include those areas traditionally
associated with retirement migration. These are the Isle of Wight (18 per
cent of moves were attributable to people aged 50 and over migrating into
the county); Lincolnshire, Dorset, East Sussex, Powys (all with 17 per cent);
and, Cornwall, Devon and West Sussex (all with 15 per cent).
The composition of the population in an area is affected by migration
throughout the life course, not just at old age. Migration rates between
regions in England and Wales between 1991 and 2001 were highest for
those aged between 45 and 59. Although high proportions of longer
distance migrants aged 60 and over moved to areas such as the South
West, their numbers were dwarfed by the equivalent number of 30 to
44 year-olds moving there. Therefore differences in the proportions of
older people residing in different regions are mainly the result of people
migrating earlier in their life course rather than at older ages.
For moves between 1991 and 2001, an indicator of how far individuals
have migrated has been devised. It was constructed by comparing the
addresses of ONS-LS members in 1991 and 2001, and indicates whether
the addresses are the same, or if not, whether they belong to the same
postcode, administrative ward, local authority district or county. Figure
4 shows the proportion of the older population that moved by age, sex
and distance (moved). For this analysis, moves within district have
been classified as short distance and moves between districts have been
classified as long distance.
The majority of older migrants only move short distances. Among migrants
aged over 50, overall 70 per cent moved within the same district compared
with 30 per cent moving between districts within England and Wales.
Migration rates generally decrease with age for both women and men
over 50 years of age. Both males and females are more likely to move
when they are between 50 and 65, and for the majority, these moves will
be short distance.
Moves at late middle age (ages 50 to 65) tend to be motivated by the
attraction of amenities and maintenance of social life; these moves are
often over longer distances. Previous studies have shown these longN at io n al S t at ist ic s
36
Percentages migrating between 1991 and 2001
among the population aged 50 and over, according
to age, by distance and sex, England and Wales
Figure 4
40
Within district
Female
30
Percentage
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Male
20
10
Male
Between districts
Female
0
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
Age at 1991 census
75–79
80+
Note: Minimum sample size 492.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
distance migrations are more likely to be made by married couple
households with above-median income.6,17 Therefore, we would expect
similar numbers of males and females migrating long distances in early
old age. However, long-distance migration at older ages tends to be
motivated by the onset of a chronic illness which leaves the older person
unable to carry out every-day tasks. It may also be compounded by the
loss of a spouse/partner, who may have provided help and motivation for
carrying out these daily tasks.6
Characteristics of older migrants, 1991–2001
Previous analyses have shown how social, demographic and economic
factors influence migration patterns in older people.5,11 The following
sections provide information on the migration of older people between
1991 and 2001, and for selected social, demographic and economic
characteristics in 1991: marital status, household type, economic
position, housing tenure and health status.
Marital Status
Changes in marital status (or relationship status), in terms of divorce,
second marriage, cohabitation and bereavement, are all considered lifecourse transitions that can drive decisions to migrate.5
Figure 5 shows that people who were married or single in 1991 were
more likely than those who were divorced or widowed to have lived at the
same address between 1991 and 2001. In contrast, divorced individuals
are the most likely to have changed address, and further analysis showed
they were more likely to have moved between districts as opposed to
within districts.
It has been noted that the majority of elderly moves into existing
households are to the households of a child. In addition, these elderly
migrants are less likely to make a move into a son or daughter’s
household if they still have a partner.14
Widowhood has been shown to be an important factor in prompting
migration in old age, especially among women.11 Migration rates for
1991–2001 were generally higher for widowed ONS-LS members than
for those that were single or married in 1991. Similar trends were found
for males and females.
The ONS-LS includes information about the death of an ONS-LS
member or their spouse. This enables examination of the migration
patterns of people who were widowed during the decade. It is not
possible to tell if these migrations occurred before or after the death of
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 5
Percentages migrating between 1991 and 2001
among the population aged 50 and over, according
to age, by marital status, England and Wales
60
50
Percentage
Divorced
Married
Single
30
20
10
0
50–54
Living arrangements
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
Age at 1991 census
75–79
80+
Note: Minimum sample size 20 (for the 80+ divorced group), next smallest 104.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Figure 6
the spouse, or whether the relationship between the two is causal.
Figure 6 shows the migration rates of ONS-LS members that were
widowed between the 1991 and 2001 Census. Perhaps unsurprisingly,
people who were widowed over the period were more likely to have
changed address than those people who were not. This relationship holds
true at all ages and for both males and females.
Figure 7 shows the migration rates by year of widowhood. For females
there is a distinct pattern, showing migration rates are highest for those
who were widowed earlier in the period, as opposed to those who
have been widowed more recently. Earlier studies have suggested that
widowhood is a highly influential push factor for migration, particularly
among women.1 It is suggested that this is partly because women are
more likely to suffer economic consequences than men.
Widowed
40
Wi n t e r 2007
Percentages migrating between 1991 and 2001 among
the population aged 50 and over, according to age, by
widowerhood status, by sex, England and Wales
50
Changes in living arrangements associated with transitions during the life
course, such as children leaving home, divorce, separation and widowhood,
can be important factors in prompting migration at older ages.
Tables 2(a) and 2(b) show the percentages of people aged 50 and over
who changed their living arrangements between 1991 and 2001, according
to whether they migrated within England and Wales during the period.
The majority of those living alone or married in 1991 remained in that
state at 2001. This highlights the fact that even though bereavement,
divorce and separation have been shown to be important triggers of
migration at older ages, they are minority events.
Percentage
40
30
Not widowed, Males
20
Not widowed, Females
10
Widowed, Males
Widowed, Females
0
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
Age at 1991 census
75–79
80+
Note: Minimum sample size 141.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Figure 7
Percentages migrating between 1991 and 2001
among the population aged 50 and over, according
to most recent year of widowerhood, by sex,
England and Wales
Interestingly, the movement of a child from the family home is associated
with migration among the over-50’s. The percentages of people over
50 that started the decade as part of a lone family or as a couple with
children but who were without children in 2001 (i.e. living alone and
as part of a couple, respectively) were 46 and 57 per cent for migrants
compared to 39 and 53 per cent for non-migrants. Correspondingly,
the percentages living as lone parents with children or as a couple with
children in 1991 who were still in those respective living arrangements
in 2001 were higher for non-migrants (50 and 33 per cent, respectively)
than for migrants (22 per cent in both cases).
Although the data does not allow us to tell whether a move follows
a change in living arrangements, previous studies have shown that a
child leaving home can increase economic pressures for the remaining
parent(s), resulting in a need to downsize. Or for those in better economic
positions, a child leaving the household can enable a life-style oriented
move to optimise local amenities and/or social networks. Previous studies
have shown that for couples with children, moves around retirement age
(55 to 65) can often be driven by a combination of withdrawal from the
work force and also children leaving home.1,17,18
50
People living alone in 1991 were more likely to experience a move
into a communal establishment than those in any other type of living
arrangement in 1991. These people are most likely to be the oldest old
(aged 80 and over), who may experience the onset of a chronic illness
that prevents them carrying out ordinary daily tasks and for whom
care from relatives is insufficient or unavailable.19 This is of particular
importance given that the proportion of older people living alone has
increased greatly in the post-war period, reflecting the undesirability
of living and depending on kin and increases in economic resources
allowing older population to live alone.11
Females
40
Percentage
Males
30
20
10
0
1991–93
1993–95
Note: Minimum sample size 432.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
1995–97
1997–99
Year of widowerhood
1999–01
Housing tenure
Housing tenure in England and Wales is strongly associated with
variables such as social class and income and has been widely used as an
37
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Table 2a
Win te r 2 0 07
Living arrangements for migrants (aged 50 and over), 1991–2001, England and Wales
2001
1991 Alone
Communal
establishment
Alone
24.0
60.0
Lone parent with
children
Couple
1.5
Couple with children/
others
7.9
0.6
Other complex
household
5.9
Total (N)
100%
(6,491)
Lone parent with children
9.5
46.3
22.3
12.1
1.9
7.9
100%
(1,178)
Couple
7.6
21.1
0.6
65.2
2.1
3.4
100%
(13,915)
Couple with children/others
1.8
11.9
3.9
57.1
21.7
3.7
100%
(6,562)
Other complex household
13.4
33.9
3.6
19.0
4.3
25.9
100%
(2,274)
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Table 2b
Living arrangements for non-migrants (aged 50 and over), 1991–2001, England and Wales
2001
Communal
establishment
1991 Alone
—
Alone
Lone parent with
children
Couple
Couple with children/
others
Other complex
household
1.5
2.6
0.2
2.1
93.5
Total (N)
100%
(12,277)
Lone parent with children
—
39.2
50.2
2.6
1.8
6.1
100%
(2,765)
Couple
—
19.8
0.7
76.2
2.4
1.0
100%
(35,712)
Couple with children/others
—
6.3
5.4
52.5
32.9
2.8
100%
(19,102)
Other complex household
—
29.0
6.2
14.0
6.0
44.8
100%
(4,310)
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
indicator of social status.20
Figure 8
Figure 9 shows the percentage of all moves made from a private
residence in 1991 to either a private residence or a communal
establishment by 2001, by age. The patterns are similar to those shown
in Figure 8, but as one would expect there are sharp increases in the
percentage of moves for all tenure types at ages 80 and over. Of all moves
experienced by those aged 50 and over, between 1991 and 2001, from
private residences, eight per cent were into communal establishments.
In contrast 57 per cent of all moves from private residences between
1991 and 2001, for those aged 80 and over, were from private residences
into communal establishments. This reflects the increased likelihood of
needing care due to the onset of long-term illness at older ages.
Health and care
Migration at very old ages is often associated with the onset of a chronic
illness. A question was asked in both the 1991 and 2001 Censuses
relating to whether an individual had a long-term illness, health problem
or disability which limited their fulfilment of daily activities or work.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
38
70
60
Owner-occupied
50
Percentage
In all of the over–50 age groups, owner occupiers in 1991 were the least
likely to move. Legislation implemented in the 1990s (the 1990 NHS and
Community Care Act) has resulted in older people being given greater
opportunity to remain in their own homes until later in life through the
provision of various at-home care packages. For all age groups those in
privately rented accommodation in 1991 were the most likely to move.
It has been suggested that socio-economic disadvantage is associated
with decreased likelihood of co-residence with relatives, and therefore an
increased need for institutional care at older ages.20
Percentages migrating (aged 50 and over) between
private residences, in the decade to 2001, according
to age, by tenure, England and Wales
40
Socially rented
30
Privately rented
20
10
0
50–59
60–69
70–79
Age at 1991 census
Note: Minimum sample size 183
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
80+
Table 3 shows the percentage of moves between private residences made
by those aged over 50 between 1991 and 2001, by whether or not they
experienced the onset of a long-term limiting illness during the same
period. A chi-squared test showed that the onset of a limiting long-term
illness was positively associated with migration for those aged 50 and
over. Further analysis showed that there was no significant variation in
the propensity to migrate by long-term illness and gender.
Table 4a shows that the propensity to migrate is stable with age for those
aged over 50, if no limiting long-term illness is experienced. However,
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 9
Percentages migrating between private residences
in the decade to 2001 (including moves into
communal establishments) among the population
aged 50 and over, by tenure and age, England and
Figure 10
70
Percentage
Percentage
Socially rented
Privately rented
30
6
4
2
20
0
10
Alone
0
50–59
60–69
70–79
Age at 1991 census
Note: Minimum sample size 264
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
80+
Percentages migrating among the population aged
50 and over by onset of long-term illness in the
decade to 2001, England and Wales
Migration indicator 1991-2001
Onset of long-term illness
Same address
Yes
Moved address
68.9
31.1
Total (N)
100%
(30860)
No
73.6
26.4
Note: Chi-square for onset of long-term illness, significant at p<0.001, N = 82, 537.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Percentages migrating among the population aged 50
and over who didn’t experience the onset of long term
illness over the decade to 2001, England and Wales
Age
Same address
Migrated
<80
73.6
26.4
Total (N)
100%
(51,279)
74.4
25.6
Single person Lone parent
with lone
with
parent/couple children
Couple
Couple with
children/
others
Other
complex
household
Living Arrangements, 1991
Note: Minimum sample size 382
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
For many the move into a communal establishment is the final migration
stage and happens as a result of the onset of a limiting long-term
illness or the loss of a partner. The propensity for women to move
into communal establishments is greater than for men, mainly due to
differences in marital status composition at older ages. However, research
has also shown that higher proportions of women report having a
disability than men at any given older age.15
100%
(51677)
100%
(398)
Note: Chi-square for age insignificant at p=0.734, N=51,677
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Table 4b
Female
8
40
80+
Male
10
Owner-occupied
50
Table 4a
Percentages migrating from private households
in 1991 to communal establishments in 2001
among the population aged 50 and over, by living
arrangement in 1991, England and Wales
12
60
Table 3
Wi n t e r 2007
The ONS-LS shows that 94 per cent of older people (aged 50 and over)
who moved from a private residence to a communal establishment
between 1991 and 2001 experienced the onset of a chronic illness during
the same period.
Figure 10 shows that people aged 50 years and over living alone in
1991 were most likely to be residing in a communal establishment by
2001. Women were generally more likely than men to be residing in a
communal establishment regardless of previous living arrangements.
This is to be expected for those living as part of a couple, as women are
more likely to outlive their partners due to greater life expectancy and the
tendency for female partners to be younger than their male counterparts
in the relationship. Similar findings have been made in research relating
to previous decades.12
Percentages migrating among the population aged
50 and over who experienced the onset of long term
illness in the decade to 2001, England and Wales
Age
Same address
Migrated
Total (N)
<80
69.7
30.3
100%
80+
52.2
47.8
(29,547)
100%
(1,313)
Note: Chi-square for age significant at p=<0.001, N=30,860
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
if the onset of a long-term limiting illness is experienced (table 4b),
those aged 80 and over are significantly more likely to migrate than those
aged 79 and under. The increased likelihood of people aged 80 and over
being widowed means it is probable that the onset of a long-term limiting
illness will result in the need to seek care outside the household.
Despite declines in intergenerational co-residence there have also
been decreases in the proportion of people living in communal
establishments.15 This is partly due to the implementation of improved
care services enabling older people to remain in their own homes for as
long as possible (a result of the 1990 NHS and Community Health Act).
Key findings
•• The popular retirement destinations of older people in England and
Wales are still dominated by seaside towns and rural-coastal areas.
The most popular counties of departure are in and around London.
•• In addition to bereavement and moving into an institution, moves
among older people are associated with younger generations
moving out of the household.
•• The oldest old (aged 80 and over) were significantly more likely
to migrate if they experienced the onset of a long term limiting
illness than their younger (aged between 50 and 79 years)
counterparts. This can be explained by differences in partnership
status linked with age.
•• Consistent with studies of earlier decades, single people living alone in
1991 were most likely to be residing in a communal establishment by
2001. Women were generally more likely than men to be residing in
a communal establishment regardless of previous living arrangements.
39
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Conclusion
This analysis of elderly migration by various characteristics of the
population has helped to shed further light on the factors associated with
migration at older ages. It supports previous studies carried out on earlier
Longitudinal Study data that have shown that factors such as change
in marital status, living arrangements and health are important triggers
of elderly migration. However, further analysis of more qualitative
retirement survey data would be necessary to establish and untangle
the determinants of migration at older ages with any certainty. Further
analysis of the factors associated with migration at older ages, using a
multilevel modelling approach may allow quantification of the strength of
these factors in determining whether or not a migration takes place.
It has also been suggested that taking a longer-term look at migration
throughout the life course may provide further explanation of the high
concentrations of elderly people in certain areas. In addition, analysis
of the characteristics of older migrants by area of destination may
help to predict the likely impact of selective inward migration on the
composition of an area. This will help policy makers to ensure adequate
care and other services are available in these areas.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance of colleagues within the
Longitudinal Study Development and Demographic Analysis Branches,
and also the reviewers.
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www.statistics.gov.uk/ statbase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=9666&More=Y
17 Bures, R M (1997) Migration and the Life Course. Journal of
Population Geography 3, pp 109–119.
18 Grundy, E (2000) Co-residence of mid-life children with their elderly
parents in England and Wales: Changes between 1981 and 1991.
Population Studies 54, 2, pp 193–206.
19 Glaser, K, Grundy, E and Lynch, K (2003) Transitions to Supported
Environments in England and Wales Among Elderly Widowed and
Divorced Women: The Changing Balance Between Co-Residence
with Family and Institutional Care. Journal of Women and Ageing,
15, pp 107–126.
20 Grundy, E (1993) Moves into supported private households among
elderly people in England and Wales, Environment and Planning A
25, pp 1467–1479.
Tables
Table*
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
1.3 (4)
1.4 (6)
1.5 (7)
1.6 (5)
2.1 (8)
2.2 (new)
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
Page
Population
International.........................................................................................Selected countries
national................................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
subnational ........................................................................................ Government Office Regions
of England
age and sex..........................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
age, sex and legal marital status.........................................................England and Wales
Components of population change......................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
43
46
47
48
51
53
Vital statistics
summary..............................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Key demographic and health indicators..............................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
54
56
Live births
57
58
age of mother......................................................................................England and Wales
outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration..................England and Wales
Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women,
age of mother and birth order..............................................................England and Wales
59
Conceptions and abortions
4.1 (12)
age of women at conception...............................................................England and Wales (residents)
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected age......................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Deaths
62
6.1 (14)
6.2 (15)
age and sex..........................................................................................England and Wales
subnational..........................................................................................Government Office Regions
..............................................................................................................of England
63
7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
8.1 (21)
59
Expectation of life
61
International migration
64
65
66
age and sex..........................................................................................United Kingdom
Country of last residence.....................................................................United Kingdom
Citizenship...........................................................................................United Kingdom
Internal migration
67
Movements within the United Kingdom.............................................United Kingdom
9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
Marriage and divorce
68
69
70
age and sex..........................................................................................England and Wales
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status.............................England and Wales
Divorces: age and sex..........................................................................England and Wales
*Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring
1999 (No 95). Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in
Health Statistics Quarterly.
Population Trends tables are also available in XLS or CSV formats via our website
www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
- nil or less than half the final digit shown
p provisional
41
a la tSti sat ti cs
i s ti c s
N a tNi oant ai ol nSt
Popu lat io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 0 7
Notes to tables
Time Series
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then
continue at five-year intervals until 1991.
Individual years are shown thereafter.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom comprises England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel
Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the
United Kingdom.
Population
The estimated and projected resident population
of an area includes all people who usually live
there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM
and US Armed Forces in the United Kingdom are
included on a residential basis wherever possible.
HM Forces stationed outside the United Kingdom
are not included. Students are taken to be resident
at their term-time addresses.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to the
number of births occurring in a period; for
Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to
births registered in a period. By law, births must be
registered within 42 days in England and Wales,
within 21 days in Scotland, and within 42 days in
Northern Ireland. In England and Wales, where a
birth is registered later than the legal time period,
and too late to be included in the count for the year
of occurrence, it will be included in the count for
the following year.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28
completed weeks of gestation or more, to one
born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation
or more.
Period expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are
based use death rates for the given period to
describe mortality levels for each year. Each
individual year shown is based on a three-year
period, so that for instance 1986 represents
1985–87. More details can be found in at www.gad.
gov.uk/life_tables/interim_life_tables.htm
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up
to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in
each year from 1993, though provisional figures
are registrations. Figures for both Scotland and
Northern Ireland represent the number of deaths
registered in each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make allowances
for changes in the age structure of the population.
The age-standardised rate for a particular condition
is that which would have occurred if the observed
age-specific rates for the condition had applied
in a given standard population. Table 2.2 uses
the European Standard Population. This is a
hypothetical population standard which is the same
for both males and females allowing standardised
rates to be compared for each sex, and between
males and females.
International Migration
The UN recommends the following definition of an
international long-term migrant.
An international long-term migrant is defined as a
person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a
year (12 months), so that the country of destination
effectively becomes his or her new country of
usual residence.
N a tio n a l S ta tis t ic s
42
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are compiled from
several main sources of migration data:
l
The richest source of information on
international migrants comes from the
International Passenger Survey (IPS), which
is a sample survey of passengers arriving at,
and departing from, the main United Kingdom
air and sea ports and Channel Tunnel. This
survey provides migration estimates based on
respondents’ intended length of stay in the UK
or abroad and excludes most persons seeking
asylum and some dependents of such asylum
seekers.
l
Two adjustments are made to account for
people who do not realise their intended length
of stay on arrival. First, visitor data from the
IPS are used to estimate ‘visitor switchers’:
those people who initially come to or leave the
UK for a short period but subsequently stay
for a year or longer. (For years before 2001,
estimates of non-European Economic Area
(non-EEA) national visitor switcher inflows
are made from the Home Office database of
after-entry applications to remain in the UK).
Second, people who intend to be migrants, but
who in reality stay in the UK or abroad for less
than a year (‘migrant switchers’), are estimated
from IPS migrant data.
l
Home Office data on asylum seekers and their
dependents.
l
Estimates of migration between the UK and
the Irish Republic estimated using information
from the Irish Quarterly National Household
Survey and the National Health Service
Central Register, agreed between the Irish
Central Statistics Office and the ONS.
For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables
7.1–7.3 are based only on data from the IPS. After
taking into account of those groups of migrants
known not to be covered by the IPS, it is estimated
that the adjustment needed to net migration ranges
from about ten thousand in 1981 to just over
twenty thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in
Tables 7.1–7.3 are based on data from all sources
and represent Total International Migration.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and South Africa;
New Commonwealth is defined as all other
Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq,
Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and
Yemen.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport
was computerised in early 1991, prior to which
a three month time lag was assumed between a
person moving and their re-registration with an
NHS doctor being processed onto the NHSCR.
Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance
of the new patient by the HA (not previously
available), and a one month time lag assumed.
Internal Migration
Sources
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement
of NHS doctors’ patients between former Health
Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales, and Area
Health Boards in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Yearly and quarterly figures have been adjusted to
take account of differences in recorded crossborder flows between England and Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland.
Prior to reorganisation of health authority
databases from Family Health Service Authorities
(FHSAs) to HAs some database boundaries
were realigned. This included in a few cases
transferring patients between databases to fit the
new boundaries. For the most part, this movement
was done outside the NHSCR system and therefore
had no effect on migration data. However a small
number were transferred within the system. As
migration estimates derived from NHSCR are
the product of an administrative system (when
patients re-register with GPs) this had the effect
of generating small numbers of spurious migrants
where no actual change of address had taken place.
We have been advised of adjustments required to
data by the Department of Health and these have
been made to migration data.
It has been established that NHSCR data underreport the migration of males aged between 16
and 36. Currently, however, there are no suitable
sources of data available to enable adjustments
or revisions to be made to the estimates. Further
research is planned on this topic and new data
sources may become available in the future.
However, for the present time, historical estimates
will not be revised and future estimates will not be
adjusted.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according
to date of decree absolute. In Scotland a small
number of late divorces from previous years are
added to the current year. The term ‘divorces’
includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage
or divorce has taken place in England, Wales,
Scotland or Northern Ireland does not mean either
of the parties is resident there.
Civil Partnerships
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on
5 December 2005 in the UK, the first day couples
could give notice of their intention to form a
civil partnership. The first day that couples could
normally form a partnership was 19 December
2005 in Northern Ireland, 20 December 2005 in
Scotland and 21 December 2005 in England and
Wales.
Civil partnerships are tabulated according to date
of formation and area of occurrence. The fact that
a civil partnership has taken place in England,
Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland does not
necessarily mean either of the parties is resident
there.
EU Enlargement
The coverage of European countries in Table 1.1
has been updated to reflect the enlargement of
the EU to 25 member countries (EU25) on 1 May
2004. The new member countries are: Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The main data source for these countries is the
United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have
been provided by the General Register Office for
Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency respectively. The International
Passenger Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted
by the Surveys and Administrative Sources
Directorate of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent
parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers
and rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one
decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for
small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional
or estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or
7.6 respectively) if their reliability does not justify
giving the standard amount of detail. Where figures
need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be
provisional and will be updated in future issues
when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Kingdom
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
1996
58,164
2001
59,113
2002
59,32312
2003
59,55712
2004
59,84612
2005
60,23812
2006
60,587
Austria
Belgium
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,813
7,959
8,043
8,084
8,118
8,175
8,230 8,266 18,P
9,673
9,818
9,859
9,862
9,979
10,137
10,287
10,333
10,376
10,421
10,480 10,511 18,P
Cyprus1
..
498
515
545
587
661 13
701 13
710 13
721 13
737 13
760 13
766 13
Czech
Republic
9,810
10,094
10,293
10,340
10,309
10,315
10,224
10,201
10,202
10,207
10,230 10,280 P
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany2
Greece3
Hungary
Irish
Republic
4,963
5,073
5,121
5,120
5,154
5,262
1,369
1,435
1,482
1,534
1,566
1,416
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
5,125
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
58,026
78,313
78,337
78,408
77,720
79,984
81,896
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
10,709
10,370
10,590
10,712
10,631
10,346
10,193
2,992
3,238
3,443
3,543
3,526
3,626 19
5,359
5,374
5,387
5,401
5,411 P
5,427 18,P
1,364
1,359
1,354
1,349
1,350 1,345 18,P
5,188
5,201
5,213
5,228
5,250 5,270 P
59,322
59,678
60,028
60,381
60,870
61,350 P
82,340
82,482
82,520
82,501
82,470 82,370 P
10,950
10,988
11,024
11,062
11,083 18,P
11,125 18,P
10,188
10,159
10,130
10,107
10,090 10,077 18,P
3,839 19
3,917 19
3,996 19
4,044 19
4,130 19
4,240 19
7.6
12.3
4.9
5.6
9.0
4.5
4.2
2.3
–1.5
–5.4
–3.0
–0.1
16.4
12.7
5.8
–1.0
4.3
11.7
4.4
2.4
3.4
1.9
3.8
–2.8
–2.9
–2.3
–1.7
–1.3
20.3
20.2
12.0
21.3
..
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
1976–81
0.5
0.1
1981–86
1.2
0.5
1986–91
2.7
5.9
1991–96
2.5
3.7
1996–01
3.3
2.1
2001–02
3.5
5.1
2002–03
3.9
4.2
2003–04
4.8
7.0
2004–05
6.6
6.7
2005–06
5.8
4.4
3.0
0.8
0.1
2.4
3.6
2.6
4.5
4.2
4.3
5.7
3.0
..
5.8
6.8
3.9
11.7
0.9
15.4
–0.6
25.2
0.1
12.1
–1.8
12.8
–2.2
15.5
0.1
22.2
0.5
31.2
2.3
7.9
4.9
4.4
1.9
0.0
1.3
4.2
3.7
4.9
3.1
4.9
3.9
3.8
2.5
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
3.4
4.5
2.8
2.4
2.6
1.9
3.0
9.6
6.6
7.0
4.2
–12.4
–7.3
–3.7
–3.7
–3.7
0.7
–3.7
2.5
2.3
2.9
4.2
3.8
6.0
5.9
5.9
8.1
7.9
0.1
0.2
–1.8
5.8
4.8
1.1
1.7
0.5
–0.2
–0.4
–1.2
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
13.4
1976–80
12.5
11.5
12.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
12.0
1986–90
13.7
11.6
12.1
13.2
11.8
1991–95
12.0
1996–00
12.0
10.2
11.2
17.7
19.0
20.2
18.8
16.9
13.2
17.8
17.1
13.5
12.7
11.1
8.8
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
13.1
12.6
15.4
15.0
15.6
15.5
10.7
8.9
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
12.9
11.3
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
12.7
12.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
9.8
10.9
9.6
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
9.9
10.2
16.1
15.8
12.3
11.8
11.7
9.8
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.8
14.0
14.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
11.1
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
..
11.6
11.1
11.2
11.3
10.9
11.4
8.9
9.6
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.3
12.2
11.9
12.0
11.9
11.9
..
9.3
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.7
..
10.8
10.7
10.9
11.4
11.0
11.2
13.0
12.8
12.7
12.7
12.7
13.0
8.9
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.3
8.2
10.2
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.7
..
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.4
9.7
..
15.1
15.5
15.4
15.3
14.8
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
12.1
1976–80
11.9
12.3
11.6
1981–85
11.7
12.0
11.4
1986–90
11.4
11.1
10.8
1991–95
11.1
10.4
10.4
1996–00
10.6
9.7
10.3
9.9
10.4
10.0
10.2
9.0
7.7
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.4
11.6
10.8
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.9
11.2
11.1
12.1
12.3
11.9
13.9
13.1
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
9.6
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.1
9.2
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.6
10.8
10.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
9.7
11.9
12.9
13.7
13.5
14.3
13.9
11.0
10.2
9.4
9.1
8.8
8.5
6.9
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.2
..
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.5
10.6
10.2
10.9
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.2
..
13.6
13.5
13.4
13.2
12.9
..
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
9.2
9.4
8.4
8.6
..
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.0
10.1
9.9
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
..
13.0
13.1
13.4
13.1
13.5
..
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.6
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
11.3
11.3
11.7
12.1 12.0
12.4 P
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.5P
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.7
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.1
9.1
8.9
10.1
10.2
10.4
9.8
..
..
Note:
Estimated population (mid-year), live birth and death rates up to the latest available data,
as given in the United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (May 2007), the United Nations
Demographic Yearbook system, and the Eurostat Yearbook 2006 (May 2007).
1 Republic of Cyprus - Greek Cypriot controlled area only
2 Including former GDR throughout.
3 Greece - mid-year population excludes armed forces stationed outside the country but
includes alien forces stationed in the area.
4 Malta - including work and resident permit holders and foreigners residing in Malta.
5 Poland - excluding civilian aliens within the country but including civilian nationals
temporarily outside the country. Average year data for 2000 and 2001 contain revised data
according to the final results of the population census 2002.
6 Portugal - including the Azores and Madeira islands.
7 Spain - including the Balearic and Canary Islands.
8 The European Union consists of 25 member countries (EU25) - 1 May 2004 (10 new member
countries).
9 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet
been determined.
10 Japan - excluding diplomatic personnel outside the country and foreign military and civilian
personnel and their dependants stationed in the area. Rates are based on births to or deaths
of Japanese nationals only.
11USA - excluding armed forces overseas and civilian citizens absent from the country for
extended periods.
122002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for the United Kingdom have been updated
to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved estimates of
international migration.
13Indicates population estimates of uncertain reliability.
14Figures were updated taking into account the results of the 2002 All Russian Population
Census.
15Mid-year estimates have been adjusted for under-enumeration.
16For statistical purposes the data for China do not include those for the Hong Kong SAR,
Macao SAR and Taiwan province of China. Data for the period 1996 to 2000 have been
adjusted on the basis of the Population Census of 2000. Data from 2001 to 2004 have
been estimated on the basis of the annual national sample surveys of Population Changes.
Estimate of uncertain reliability. Death rates for 1999–2003 and birth rates for 2000–2003
were obtained by the Sample Survey of Population Change 2003 in China.
17Rate is for 1990–1995.
18As at 1 January - Eurostat Yearbook 2006 (May 2007).
19 Data refer to 15 April.
p provisional.
43
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
continued
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Kingdom
Luxem–
Malta4
bourg
Nether–
Poland5 Portugal6 Slovakia Slovenia
Spain7
Sweden
lands
EU–258
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
1996
58,164 54,073
55,718
56,502
56,596
56,751
56,860
2,366
2,465
2,515
2,588
2,662
2,457
3,160
3,315
3,422
3,560
3,742
3,602
342
361
365
368
387
414
330
330
322
344
358
380
13,194
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
15,530
32,800
34,360
35,902
37,456
38,245
38,618
8,644
9,356
9,851
10,011
9,871
10,058
4,540
4,764
4,996
5,179
5,283
5,374
1,732
1,809
1,910
1,975
2,002
1,991
34,216
36,118
37,741
38,536
38,920
39,479
8,098 ..
8,222
420,258
8,320
428,563
8,370
433,555
8,617
440,927
8,841
447,113
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
56,978
57,157 57,605
58,175
58,610 58,880 P
2,355
2,339 2,325
2,313
2,30618,P
2,29518,P
3,481
3,469 3,454
3,436
3,410 P
3,390 P
442
446
450
453
460
460 18,P
393
396
399
401
40318,P
40418,P
16,046
16,149
16,225
16,282
16,320
16,340 P
38,251
38,232 38,195
38,180
38,17418,P
38,15718,P
10,293
10,368 10,441
10,502
10,550
10,57018,P
5,380
5,379 5,379
5,382
5,390
5,400 P
1,992
1,996 1,997
1,997
2,000
2,010 P
40,721
41,314 42,005
42,692
43,400 P
44,100 P
8,896
8,925
8,958
8,994
9,030
9,030 P
452,146
453,989
456,059
458,266
460,645P
462,650P
9.9
8.9
9.7
11.2
7.3
6.8
4.0
2.7
3.4
–1.1
0.2 0.1
11.1
9.0
4.2
2.0
2.9
6.3
3.1
2.4
1.2
5.9
5.1
1.2
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.0
0.5
0.0
1.5
5.0
14.6
16.7
16.4
16.6
16.1
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.0
0.0
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
4.4
59,113 59,323 12
59,557 12
59,846 12
60,238 12
60,587
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
6.1
8.4
9.8
10.7
0.0
1976–81
0.5 2.8 4.1 6.5 2.5
– 4.8
1981–86
1.2 0.3 5.8 8.1 1.8 13.7
1986–91
2.7 0.5 5.7 10.2 10.2 8.1
– 1.7 13.9 8.4
1991–96
2.5 0.4 –12.8
1996–01
3.3 0.4 – 8.3
– 6.7 13.5 6.8
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
3.5 3.9 4.8
6.6
5.8
3.1
7.8
9.9
7.5
4.6
–
–
–
–
–
6.8
6.0
5.2
3.0
4.8
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
16.0
14.4
1976–80
12.5
12.6
13.9
1981–85
12.9
10.6
15.2
1986–90
13.7
9.8
15.3
1991–95
13.2
9.6
10.8
1996–00
12.0
9.2
8.0
– 3.4 9.0
– 4.3 9.0
– 5.2 6.7
– 7.6 15.5
– 5.9 0.0
8.8
6.9
4.6
6.8
6.1
6.6
–
9.5
9.0
8.7
4.2
2.0
1.9
7.6
7.6
5.0
5.0
2.5
6.4
4.7
3.5
2.3
1.2
0.5 7.3
–0.2
1.0 7.00.0
0.45.8
0.6
0.24.6
1.5
0.41.91.9
–
–
–
–
–
16.5
10.6
3.2
–2.8
3.8
4.7
16.4
15.4
16.0
15.8
13.1
10.4
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.2
13.3
13.1
17.5
17.0
15.3
16.0
14.0
12.0
14.9
12.6
12.2
12.8
12.8
12.6
17.9
19.3
19.0
15.5
12.9
10.4
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.9
11.4
11.3
19.7
20.3
18.0
15.8
13.3
10.7
16.4
16.3
14.2
12.3
10.0
9.1
19.2
17.1
12.8
10.8
9.8
9.5
13.5
11.6
11.3
13.2
13.3
10.2
..
..
..
..
..
10.6
8.3
8.6
9.0
8.8
9.4 ..
9.1
8.7
8.9
8.9
9.0
9.2
12.4
12.0
11.8
11.8
11.8
..
9.8
9.6
9.8
9.7
9.6
..
12.6
12.5
12.3
11.9
11.5
11.3
9.6
9.3
9.2
9.3
9.6
..
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.4
10.4
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.6
10.0
9.3
..
8.8
8.8
8.7
9.0
9.1
..
10.0
.10.2
10.5
10.6
10.7
..
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.7
10.4
10.3
..
..
..
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
9.8
11.6
1976–80
11.9
9.7
12.6
1981–85
11.7
9.5
12.8
1986–90
11.4
9.4
12.4
1991–95
11.1
9.7
14.8
1996–00
10.6
9.8
13.9
9.0
10.1
10.6
10.3
12.0
11.5
12.2
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.8
9.0
9.0
9.0
8.2
7.4
7.6
7.7
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.8
8.4
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.2
9.8
11.0
10.1
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.5
9.4
9.8
10.1
10.1
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.8
10.3
9.6
9.7
9.5
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.1
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
10.9
10.6
..
..
..
..
..
10.0
11.6
11.8
11.9
12.0
12.8
13.2
8.4
8.4
9.0
7.6
8.0
..
7.6
7.8
7.7
7.2
..
..
8.7
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.4
8.3
9.5
9.4
9.6
9.5
9.7
..
10.2
10.2
10.4
9.7
..
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.7
9.6
9.9
..
9.3
9.4
9.7
9.3
9.4
..
8.9
8.9
9.2
8.2
8.9
..
10.5
10.6
10.4
10.1
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.8
..
..
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.5
..
11.3 11.3 11.7 12.1
12.0 12.4P
10.2 10.2 10.3
9.7 9.7 9.5P
9.6
9.8
10.2
9.4
9.7
..
14.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
14.2 ..
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
44
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 1.1
continued
Wi n t e r 2007
Population and vital rates: international
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
EU–25 Kingdom
8
Russian
Australia
Canada
Federation
New
China
India9
Japan10
Zealand
Population (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
58,164
..
420,258
428,563
433,555
440,927
447,113
130,934
135,027
139,225
144,154
148,245
148,16014
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
18,31115
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,031
29,61115
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,477
3,732
852,290 16
937,170 16
1,008,460 16
1,086,733 16
1,170,100 16
1,217,550 16
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
59,113
59,323 12
59,557 12
59,846 12
60,238 12
60,587
452,146
453,989
456,059
458,266
460,645P
462,650P
145,97614
145,30614
144,56614
143,82114
143,50014
..
19,41315
19,64115
19,87315
20,11115
20,33015,P
20,61015,P
31,02115
31,37315
31,66915
32,97415
32,27015,P
32,62015,P
3,880
3,939
4,009
4,061
4,100
4,140 P
1,271,850 16
1,280,400 16
1,288,400 16
1,296,075 16
1,303,720 16
..
USA11
551,311
617,248
675,185
767,199
851,897
942,15713
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,964
125,757
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,639
269,394
1,035,06613
1,050,64013
1,068,21413
1,085,60013
1,097,00013
..
127,130
127,400 127,650
127,670
127,770
127,760
285,108
287,985
290,850
293,623
296,410
..
23.9
18.8
27.3
22.1
21.1
19.7
15.1
8.5
6.4
3.8
2.9
2.2
10.0
10.9
9.3
9.9
12.1
11.7
15.0
16.7 16.3 10.5
..
2.1
2.0
0.2
0.8
–0.1
10.1
9.9
9.5
9.5
..
18.6
14.9
12.6
10.6
..
9.5
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.0
..
14.3
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1976–81
0.5
1981–86
1.2
1986–91
2.7
1991–96
2.5
1996–01
3.3
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
2.7
2.3
6.3
6.2
7.1
5.7
– 1.7
– 2.9
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
11.9
12.0
13.5
11.8
10.5
13.9
11.3
9.5
18.2
2.0
7.6
9.6
14.7
7.9
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
10.3
8.9
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
4.4
– 4.6
– 5.1
– 5.2
– 2.2
..
11.7
11.8
12.0
10.9
13.8
11.3
9.4
9.6
9.3
10.8
15.2
17.8
13.0
9.6
9.8
6.7
6.2
6.0
5.9
..
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
..
1976–80
12.5
..
1981–85
12.9
..
1986–90
13.7
..
1991–95
13.2
..
1996–00
12.0
10.6
..
..
..
..
10.2
8.6
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
..
13.4
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
..
11.4
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
..
14.9
27.2 18.6 19.2
..
18.5 17
..
35.6
33.4
..
..
..
..
10.4
10.3
..
..
..
..
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.5
..
..
12.7
12.8
12.6
12.7
12.9
12.9
10.8
10.5
10.6
10.5
..
..
14.4
13.7
14.0
14.3
..
..
13.4 16
12.9 16
12.4 16
12.3 16
..
..
25.4
25.0
24.8
24.1
..
..
9.2
9.1
8.8
8.7
..
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
..
1976–80
11.9
..
1981–85
11.7
..
1986–90
11.4
..
1991–95
11.1
..
1996–00
10.6
10.0
..
..
..
..
13.7
14.3
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
..
6.9
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
..
7.2
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
..
7.2
7.3 6.6 6.7
..
..
..
15.5
13.8
..
..
..
..
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.4
..
7.4
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.7
..
8.5
9.7
9.8
..
..
..
..
15.4
16.1
16.4
16.0
..
..
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
..
..
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.0
..
..
6.4 16
6.4 16
6.4 16
6.4 16
..
..
8.4
8.1
8.0
7.5
..
..
7.6
7.7
8.0
8.1
..
..
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.2
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3.5
3.9
4.8
6.6
5.8
11.3
11.3
11.7
12.1
12.0
12.4P
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.5P
See notes on first page of table.
45
National Statistics
14.1
13.9
14.1
14.0
..
..
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 1.2
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates 1971
55,928
54,388
49,152
46,412
2,740
5,236
1,540
1976
56,216
54,693
49,459
46,660
2,799
5,233
1,524
1981
56,357
54,815
49,634
46,821
2,813
5,180
1,543
1986
56,684
55,110
49,999
47,188
2,811
5,112
1,574
1991
57,439
55,831
50,748
47,875
2,873
5,083
1,607
1993
57,714
56,078
50,986
48,102
2,884
5,092
1,636
1994
57,862
56,218
51,116
48,229
2,887
5,102
1,644
1995
58,025
56,376
51,272
48,383
2,889
5,104
1,649
1996
58,164
56,503
51,410
48,519
2,891
5,092
1,662
1997
58,314
56,643
51,560
48,665
2,895
5,083
1,671
1998
58,475
56,797
51,720
48,821
2,900
5,077
1,678
1999
58,684
57,005
51,933
49,033
2,901
5,072
1,679
2000
58,886
57,203
52,140
49,233
2,907
5,063
1,683
2001
59,113
57,424
52,360
49,450
2,910
5,064
1,689
59,323
57,627
52,572
49,652
2,920
5,055
1,697
2002 1
2003 1
59,557
57,855
52,797
49,866
2,931
5,057
1,703
59,846
58,136
53,057
50,111
2,946
5,078
1,710
2004 1
60,238
58,514
53,419
50,466
2,954
5,095
1,724
2005 1
2006
60,587
58,846
53,729
50,763
2,966
5,117
1,742
2005 by age group (percentages)
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.4
5.2
6.4
0–4 5–15 13.3
13.2
13.3
13.2
13.5
12.8
15.4
16–44 40.2
40.2
40.3
40.4
37.5
39.5
41.3
45–64M/59F 22.0
22.0
21.9
21.9
22.9
23.3
20.6
65M/60F–74 11.0
11.1
11.0
10.9
12.2
11.7
10.0
75 and over 7.7
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.5
7.5
6.3
Projections2 2006
60,587
58,846
53,729
50,763
2,966
5,117
1,742
2011
62,761
60,950
55,744
52,706
3,038
5,206
1,812
2016
64,975
63,107
57,837
54,724
3,113
5,270
1,868
2021
67,191
65,269
59,943
56,757
3,186
5,326
1,922
2026
69,260
67,294
61,931
58,682
3,248
5,363
1,966
2031
71,100
69,101
63,727
60,432
3,296
5,374
1,999
2031 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.1
4.7
5.7
5–15
12.4
12.4
12.5
12.5
12.1
11.2
13.4
16–44
36.4
36.4
36.6
36.8
33.7
34.3
35.5
23.4
23.4
23.3
23.3
23.5
24.4
23.9
45–643
10.6
10.6
10.5
10.4
12.0
12.4
10.7
65–743
75 and over
11.6
11.6
11.5
11.4
13.7
12.9
10.9
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
2 National projections based on mid-2006 population estimates.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Between 2024 and 2026, state pension age will increase from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women.
National Statistics
46
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 1.3
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
Estimates 1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,594
2,587
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,833
6,843
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,884
4,936
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,908
4,011
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2,594
2,589
2,583
2,576
2,568
6,847
6,839
6,828
6,810
6,794
4,954
4,960
4,961
4,961
4,958
1998 1999 2000
2001
2002 1
2,561
2,550
2,543
2,540
2,541
6,792
6,773
6,774
6,773
6,778
2003 1
2004 1
2005 1
2006
2,541
2,542
2,550
2,556
5.4 13.0 39.0 23.0 11.7 7.9 Wi n t e r 2007
2005 by age group (percentages)
0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64M/59F 65M/60F–74 75 and over East
London
South
East
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,180
5,230
4,454
4,672
4,854
4,999
5,121
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,774
6,829
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,468
7,629
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,548
4,688
4,056
4,072
4,092
4,108
4,120
5,246
5,249
5,257
5,263
5,262
5,154
5,178
5,206
5,233
5,267
6,844
6,874
6,913
6,974
7,015
7,673
7,712
7,763
7,800
7,853
4,734
4,757
4,782
4,793
4,827
4,958
4,956
4,959
4,977
5,002
4,133
4,152
4,168
4,190
4,222
5,271
5,272
5,270
5,281
5,295
5,302
5,339
5,375
5,400
5,433
7,065
7,154
7,237
7,322
7,362
7,889
7,955
7,991
8,023
8,047
4,849
4,881
4,917
4,943
4,973
6,800
6,820
6,840
6,853
5,028
5,064
5,108
5,142
4,254
4,291
4,328
4,364
5,312
5,327
5,351
5,367
5,475
5,511
5,563
5,607
7,364
7,389
7,456
7,512
8,087
8,125
8,185
8,238
5,005
5,042
5,087
5,124
5.7 13.6 39.5 22.3 11.3 7.6 5.7 13.3 40.2 22.0 11.1 7.6 5.5 13.3 39.5 22.6 11.3 7.8 6.0 13.7 39.2 21.9 11.4 7.8 5.8 13.5 38.7 22.5 11.4 8.1 6.8 12.4 48.5 18.5 8.1 5.7 5.7 13.5 39.0 22.5 11.1 8.2 Projections2 2006
2,543
6,863
5,125
4,355
5,362
5,604
7,512
8,228
2011
2,544
6,959
5,259
4,496
5,438
5,808
7,723
8,440
2016
2,549
7,066
5,398
4,637
5,522
6,014
7,946
8,661
2021
2,557
7,178
5,536
4,779
5,612
6,221
8,160
8,891
2026
2,562
7,276
5,664
4,910
5,692
6,412
8,344
9,111
2029
2,562
7,323
5,730
4,977
5,732
6,515
8,443
9,229
2029 by age group (percentages)
0–4 4.9
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.6
5.3
6.4
5.3
5–15 11.6
12.1
12.1
11.8
12.6
12.1
12.0
12.1
16–44 34.7
35.9
36.5
34.5
35.3
34.3
44.3
35.2
45–643 24.3
24.5
24.2
25.0
24.1
24.9
23.5
24.7
65–743 12.2
11.0
10.8
11.5
10.7
11.1
7.3
10.8
75 and over 12.3
11.2
11.1
12.2
11.7
12.3
6.5
11.9
South
West
5.2
12.8
37.1 23.0
12.4
9.4
5,122
5,302
5,484
5,672
5,851
5,947
4.7
11.2
33.0
25.0
12.2
13.8
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
2 These projections are based on the revised mid-2004 population estimates and are consistent with the 2004-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Between 2024 and 2026, state pension age will increase from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women.
47
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 1.4
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
65M/60F1
64M/59F1 and over
United Kingdom
Persons
1981
56,357
730
2,726
8,147
9,019 8,010
6,774
9,540
2,935
5,195
2,677
..
..
12,543 33,780
1986
56,684
748
2,886
7,143
9,200 8,007
7,711
9,212
3,069
5,020
2,971
716
..
11,645 34,725
1991
57,439
790
3,077
7,141
8,168 8,898
7,918
9,500
2,888
5,067
3,119
626
248
11,685 35,197
1996
58,164
719
3,019
7,544
7,231 9,131
7,958 10,553
2,785
5,066
3,129
711
317
12,018 35,498
2000
58,886
682
2,869
7,652
7,139 8,646
8,678 11,011
2,900
4,940
3,249
755
364
11,959 36,138
2001
59,113
663
2,819
7,624
7,261 8,475
8,846 11,168
2,884
4,947
3,296
753
377
11,863 36,406
2002 2
59,323
661
2,753
7,603
7,400 8,264
9,004 11,307
2,892
4,967
3,344
738
388
11,785 36,622
2003 2
59,557
680
2,706
7,546
7,573 8,084
9,105 11,412
2,949
5,001
3,398
706
399
11,720 36,826
10,035
10,313
10,557
10,649
10,788
10,845
10,916
11,012
2004 2
59,846
705
2,686
7,475
7,739 7,954
9,185 11,507
3,027
5,028
3,431
702
409
11,645 37,083
2005 2
60,238
716
2,713
7,373
7,886 7,935
9,245 11,616
3,114
5,046
3,420
755
419
11,589 37,418
2006
60,587
732
2,765
7,241
8,020 7,896
9,262 11,744
3,240
5,029
3,416
820
423
11,537 37,707
Males 1981
27,412
374
1,400
4,184
4,596 4,035
3,409
4,711
1,376
2,264
922
..
..
6,439 17,646
1986
27,542
384
1,478
3,664
4,663 4,022
3,864
4,572
1,463
2,206
1,060
166
..
5,968 18,142
1991
27,909
403
1,572
3,655
4,146 4,432
3,949
4,732
1,390
2,272
1,146
166
46
5,976 18,303
1996
28,287
369
1,547
3,857
3,652 4,540
3,954
5,244
1,360
2,311
1,187
201
65
6,148 18,375
2000
28,690
350
1,469
3,920
3,606 4,292
4,298
5,457
1,420
2,294
1,278
225
81
6,128 18,685
2001
28,832
338
1,445
3,906
3,672 4,215
4,382
5,534
1,412
2,308
1,308
227
85
6,077 18,827
2
2002
28,964
338
1,408
3,897
3,758 4,114
4,462
5,594
1,414
2,325
1,338
226
89
6,037 18,949
2003 2
29,109
349
1,384
3,868
3,855 4,024
4,514
5,646
1,440
2,347
1,369
219
94
6,006 19,075
11,117
11,232
11,344
2004 2
29,278
362
1,376
3,832
3,953 3,960
4,546
5,691
1,479
2,365
1,392
223
98
5,971 19,229
2005 2
29,497
367
1,389
3,781
4,030 3,952
4,581
5,745
1,522
2,380
1,400
247
103
5,941 19,426
2006
29,694
374
1,416
3,709
4,108 3,940
4,586
5,804
1,584
2,379
1,413
273
106
5,912 19,611
Females 1981
28,946
356
1,327
3,963
4,423 3,975
3,365
4,829
1,559
2,931
1,756
..
..
6,104 16,134
1986
29,142
364
1,408
3,480
4,538 3,985
3,847
4,639
1,606
2,814
1,911
550
..
5,678 16,583
1991
29,530
387
1,505
4,021 4,466
3,968
4,769
1,498
2,795
1,972
460
202
5,709 16,894
3,487
1996
29,877
350
1,472
3,687
3,579 4,591
4,005
5,309
1,426
2,755
1,942
509
252
5,870 17,123
2000
30,196
333
1,399
3,732
3,533 4,353
4,380
5,554
1,481
2,646
1,971
530
283
5,832 17,453
2001
30,281
324
1,375
3,718
3,589 4,260
4,465
5,634
1,473
2,640
1,987
526
292
5,786 17,579
2
2002
30,359
323
1,346
3,706
3,642 4,150
4,542
5,713
1,478
2,642
2,006
513
299
5,748 17,673
2003 2
30,449
331
1,322
3,678
3,718 4,060
4,590
5,766
1,509
2,654
2,029
487
305
5,714 17,751
4,078
4,130
4,171
2004 2
30,568
343
1,310
3,642
3,785 3,993
4,639
5,816
1,548
2,662
2,040
479
310
5,674 17,854
2005 2
30,741
349
1,324
3,592
3,856 3,983
4,663
5,871
1,591
2,666
2,020
509
316
5,647 17,992
2006
30,893
357
1,349
3,532
3,912 3,956
4,675
5,940
1,656
2,650
2,002
547
317
5,625 18,096
England and Wales
Persons
1981
49,634
634
2,372
7,085
7,873 7,086
5,996
8,433
2,607
4,619
2,388
383
157
10,910 29,796
1986
49,999
654
2,522
6,226
8,061 7,052
6,856
8,136
2,725
4,470
2,655
461
182
10,161 30,647
1991
50,748
698
2,713
6,248
7,165 7,862
7,022
8,407
2,553
4,506
2,790
561
223
10,247 31,100
1996
51,410
637
2,668
6,636
6,336 8,076
7,017
9,363
2,457
4,496
2,801
639
285
10,584 31,353
2000
52,140
607
2,544
6,757
6,275 7,682
7,661
9,764
2,564
4,372
2,907
680
328
10,572 31,977
2001
52,360
589
2,502
6,740
6,387 7,536
7,816
9,898
2,549
4,377
2,947
677
340
10,495 32,226
2002 2
52,572
589
2,445
6,728
6,518 7,357
7,964 10,018
2,555
4,394
2,989
664
351
10,437 32,435
2003 2
52,797
607
2,404
6,682
6,679 7,203
8,058 10,104
2,606
4,422
3,037
634
360
10,388 32,626
7,039
7,102
7,172
2004 2
53,057
629
2,390
6,618
6,836 7,090
8,133 10,177
2,675
4,445
3,063
632
370
10,326 32,856
2005 2
53,419
639
2,415
6,528
6,974 7,078
8,194 10,264
2,757
4,461
3,052
680
379
10,278 33,164
2006
53,729
653
2,462
6,412
7,095 7,040
8,213 10,369
2,874
4,444
3,045
740
382
10,235 33,417
Males 1981
24,160
324
1,218
3,639
4,011 3,569
3,024
4,178
1,227
2,020
825
94
32
5,601 15,589
1986
24,311
335
1,292
3,194
4,083 3,542
3,438
4,053
1,302
1,972
951
115
35
5,208 16,031
1991
24,681
356
1,385
3,198
3,638 3,920
3,504
4,199
1,234
2,027
1,029
150
42
5,240 16,193
1996
25,030
327
1,368
3,393
3,202 4,020
3,489
4,659
1,205
2,059
1,067
182
59
5,416 16,247
2000
25,438
311
1,303
3,462
3,172 3,823
3,802
4,842
1,259
2,040
1,148
204
73
5,416 16,556
2001
25,574
301
1,281
3,453
3,231 3,758
3,881
4,907
1,252
2,052
1,175
206
77
5,376 16,688
2
2002
25,704
301
1,249
3,448
3,311 3,672
3,957
4,958
1,253
2,067
1,202
204
81
5,346 16,804
2003 2
25,841
312
1,230
3,425
3,399 3,594
4,007
5,002
1,276
2,085
1,229
198
85
5,324 16,920
9,875
9,977
10,077
2004 2
25,995
323
1,225
3,394
3,493 3,538
4,036
5,037
1,310
2,100
1,248
202
89
5,295 17,060
2005 2
26,197
327
1,237
3,348
3,565 3,530
4,073
5,080
1,351
2,113
1,256
224
94
5,270 17,241
2006
26,371
334
1,261
3,284
3,636 3,517
4,080
5,130
1,407
2,111
1,267
248
96
5,245 17,405
Females 1981
25,474
310
1,154
3,446
3,863 3,517
2,972
4,255
1,380
2,599
1,564
289
126
5,309 14,207
1986
25,687
319
1,231
3,032
3,978 3,509
3,418
4,083
1,422
2,498
1,704
346
148
4,953 14,616
1991
26,067
342
1,328
3,050
3,527 3,943
3,517
4,208
1,319
2,479
1,761
411
181
5,007 14,908
1996
26,381
310
1,300
3,243
3,134 4,056
3,528
4,704
1,252
2,437
1,734
457
227
5,168 15,106
2000
26,702
296
1,241
3,296
3,103 3,859
3,859
4,923
1,304
2,332
1,758
476
255
5,155 15,421
2001
26,786
288
1,220
3,287
3,156 3,778
3,935
4,992
1,297
2,326
1,771
471
263
5,119 15,538
2
2002
26,868
287
1,195
3,280
3,207 3,685
4,007
5,060
1,302
2,328
1,787
460
270
5,091 15,631
2003 2
26,956
295
1,175
3,256
3,280 3,610
4,051
5,103
1,329
2,338
1,807
436
275
5,064 15,705
3,640
3,685
3,722
2004 2
2005 2
2006
6,235
6,292
6,355
27,062
27,223
27,358
306
312
319
1,165
1,178
1,201
3,224
3,180
3,127
3,342
3,409
3,458
3,552
3,548
3,523
4,097
4,121
4,134
5,141
5,183
5,239
1,365
1,406
1,466
2,345
2,348
2,333
1,815
1,796
1,778
430
456
492
280
285
286
5,031
5,008
4,990
15,796
15,922
16,012
3,327
3,432
3,630
3,764
3,878
3,928
3,978
4,028
6,708
6,881
6,927
6,885
6,911
6,917
6,938
6,984
8,928
9,190
9,400
9,474
9,591
9,639
9,700
9,783
2,970
3,072
3,248
3,367
3,466
3,510
3,554
3,597
5,958
6,118
6,152
6,107
6,126
6,129
6,146
6,186
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
2 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
Tel no. for all enquiries relating to population estimates:- 01329 813318
National Statistics
48
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 1.4
continued
Wi n t e r 2007
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
Under
16–
65M/65F1
over
16
64M/59F1 and over
England
Persons
1981
46,821
598
2,235
6,678
7,440 6,703
5,663
7,948
2,449
4,347
2,249
362
149
10,285 28,133
8,403
1986
47,188
618
2,380
5,869
7,623 6,682
6,478
7,672
2,559
4,199
2,501
435
172
9,583 28,962
8,643
1991
47,875
660
2,560
5,885
6,772 7,460
6,633
7,920
2,399
4,222
2,626
529
210
9,658 29,390
8,827
1996
48,519
603
2,523
6,255
5,985 7,667
6,638
8,822
2,310
4,217
2,631
602
269
9,985 29,639
8,895
2000
49,233
575
2,406
6,375
5,923 7,304
7,257
9,199
2,411
4,107
2,727
641
309
9,980 30,243
9,010
9,908 30,487
2001
49,450
558
2,366
6,359
6,032 7,171
7,407
9,327
2,395
4,113
2,764
638
321
9,055
2002 2
49,652
559
2,313
6,348
6,153 7,003
7,550
9,439
2,399
4,129
2,803
625
331
9,855 30,686
9,111
2003 2
49,866
576
2,275
6,305
6,304 6,859
7,641
9,522
2,445
4,155
2,850
596
340
9,812 30,867
9,188
2004 2
50,111
597
2,262
6,245
6,450 6,751
7,712
9,591
2,509
4,175
2,875
593
349
9,755 31,083
2005 2
50,466
606
2,289
6,161
6,583 6,742
7,772
9,675
2,586
4,189
2,865
638
357
9,713 31,384
2006
50,763
620
2,335
6,051
6,696 6,708
7,793
9,777
2,697
4,171
2,860
695
360
9,674 31,627
Males 1981
22,795
306
1,147
3,430
3,790 3,377
2,856
3,938
1,154
1,902
777
89
30
5,280 14,717
1986
22,949
317
1,219
3,010
3,862 3,357
3,249
3,822
1,224
1,853
897
108
33
4,911 15,147
1991
23,291
336
1,307
3,011
3,439 3,721
3,311
3,957
1,159
1,900
970
141
39
4,938 15,302
1996
23,629
309
1,294
3,198
3,023 3,818
3,302
4,390
1,133
1,932
1,003
172
55
5,110 15,358
2000
24,030
294
1,232
3,266
2,995 3,638
3,604
4,562
1,184
1,917
1,078
192
69
5,113 15,661
2001
24,166
285
1,212
3,257
3,053 3,580
3,681
4,624
1,176
1,928
1,103
194
73
5,075 15,793
2
2002
24,290
286
1,182
3,253
3,127 3,500
3,755
4,673
1,176
1,942
1,128
193
77
5,047 15,904
2003 2
24,419
296
1,163
3,232
3,209 3,425
3,803
4,715
1,197
1,958
1,154
186
80
5,028 16,012
9,273
9,370
9,462
2,798
2,891
3,050
3,161
3,256
3,298
3,339
3,379
2004 2
24,563
306
1,159
3,202
3,297 3,371
3,831
4,748
1,228
1,972
1,172
190
84
5,001 16,143
2005 2
24,758
310
1,172
3,160
3,365 3,365
3,868
4,791
1,267
1,984
1,179
210
88
4,979 16,317
2006
24,926
317
1,196
3,100
3,432 3,353
3,875
4,839
1,320
1,981
1,190
233
91
4,957 16,475
Females 1981
24,026
292
1,088
3,248
3,650 3,327
2,807
4,009
1,295
2,445
1,472
273
119
5,004 13,416
1986
24,239
301
1,161
2,859
3,761 3,325
3,229
3,850
1,335
2,346
1,604
326
140
4,672 13,815
1991
24,584
324
1,253
2,873
3,333 3,739
3,322
3,964
1,239
2,323
1,656
388
171
4,720 14,088
1996
24,890
293
1,229
3,056
2,961 3,849
3,336
4,432
1,177
2,286
1,628
430
214
4,876 14,281
2000
25,203
281
1,174
3,109
2,928 3,667
3,653
4,637
1,227
2,190
1,649
448
240
4,867 14,582
2001
25,284
273
1,154
3,102
2,979 3,591
3,726
4,702
1,219
2,185
1,661
444
248
4,834 14,694
2
2002
25,362
273
1,131
3,095
3,026 3,503
3,795
4,767
1,223
2,187
1,676
433
254
4,808 14,782
2003 2
25,448
280
1,112
3,073
3,095 3,433
3,838
4,808
1,248
2,197
1,696
410
260
4,784 14,854
3,419
3,461
3,494
2004 2
25,548
291
1,103
3,043
3,153 3,380
3,881
4,843
1,280
2,203
1,703
403
264
4,753 14,940
2005 2
25,708
296
1,117
3,001
3,218 3,378
3,905
4,885
1,319
2,206
1,686
428
269
4,733 15,066
2006
25,837
303
1,139
2,952
3,264 3,355
3,918
4,938
1,377
2,190
1,670
461
270
4,717 15,152
Wales Persons 1981
2,813
36
136
407
434
383
333
485
158
272
139
21
8
626
1,663
1986
2,811
37
143
357
438
369
378
464
166
271
154
26
10
578
1,686
1991
2,873
38
153
363
393
402
389
486
154
284
164
32
13
589
1,711
1996
2,891
34
146
381
352
409
379
541
147
279
170
37
17
598
1,714
2000
2,907
32
138
383
352
378
403
565
152
265
180
39
19
591
1,734
2001
2,910
32
136
382
356
365
409
572
154
264
183
39
20
587
1,739
2
2002
2,920
30
132
380
365
354
414
578
156
265
185
39
20
582
1,749
2003 2
2,931
31
129
377
376
345
417
582
161
268
187
38
21
577
1,759
5,854
5,908
5,968
2004 2
2,946
32
127
373
385
339
421
586
166
270
188
39
21
572
1,773
2005 2
2,954
32
126
367
390
335
421
589
171
271
186
42
21
566
1,780
2006
2,966
33
127
361
399
332
421
592
177
273
186
45
22
561
1,790
Males 1981
1,365
18
70
209
221
193
168
240
73
118
48
5
2
321
871
1986
1,362
19
73
184
221
186
190
231
79
119
54
7
2
297
885
1991
1,391
20
78
186
199
199
194
242
74
128
60
8
2
302
891
1996
1,401
17
74
195
179
203
187
269
72
128
64
10
3
306
890
2000
1,408
16
71
196
177
185
198
75
124
71
12
4
303
895
280
2001
1,409
16
69
196
179
178
200
283
75
124
73
12
4
301
895
2
2002
1,414
16
68
195
184
172
202
285
77
125
74
12
5
299
900
2003 2
1,423
16
66
194
190
168
204
287
79
127
75
11
5
296
908
602
608
615
2004 2
1,432
16
65
192
196
166
205
288
82
128
76
12
5
294
917
2005 2
1,439
17
65
189
200
166
205
290
84
129
77
13
5
291
924
2006
1,445
17
65
185
204
164
205
291
87
130
77
15
5
288
929
Females 1981
1,448
18
66
199
213
190
165
246
85
154
91
16
6
305
791
1986
1,449
18
70
173
217
184
188
233
87
152
100
20
8
282
801
1991
1,482
19
75
177
194
203
195
244
80
156
104
24
10
288
820
1996
1,490
16
71
186
173
206
192
272
75
151
106
27
13
293
825
2000
1,499
15
67
186
175
192
206
285
77
142
109
28
15
288
840
2001
1,502
15
66
186
177
187
209
289
78
141
110
27
15
286
844
2
2002
1,506
15
65
185
181
182
212
293
80
140
111
27
16
283
849
2003 2
1,508
15
63
183
185
176
214
295
82
141
112
27
16
280
851
221
224
227
2004 2
2005 2
2006
380
383
387
1,514
1,515
1,521
15
16
16
62
61
62
182
179
176
189
191
195
172
170
168
216
216
216
298
299
301
84
87
90
142
142
143
112
110
108
26
28
30
16
16
16
278
275
273
See notes on first page of table.
49
National Statistics
856
856
861
5,605
5,752
5,777
5,734
5,755
5,757
5,772
5,809
525
547
573
578
581
584
589
595
173
181
198
206
210
212
215
218
352
366
375
373
371
372
374
377
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 1.4
continued
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
Under
16–
65M/60F1
over
16
64M/59F1 and over
Scotland Persons 1981
5,180
69
249
780
875
724
603
880
260
460
232
35
14
1,188
3,110
882
1986
5,112
66
257
656
863
739
665
849
273
435
252
42
15
1,061
3,161
890
1991
5,083
66
258
634
746
795
696
853
265
441
259
51
19
1,021
3,151
912
1996
5,092
59
252
643
651
798
722
925
259
448
256
57
24
1,019
3,151
922
2000
5,063
53
230
636
628
717
774
962
263
445
267
59
28
985
3,141
937
2001
5,064
52
224
629
633
696
782
979
262
447
272
59
29
970
3,150
944
2002
5,055
51
217
622
639
669
788
993
262
449
276
58
30
955
3,150
950
2003
5,057
52
212
614
648
648
793
1,008
265
452
281
55
31
943
3,156
958
2004
5,078
54
210
609
653
635
796
1,025
270
455
286
54
31
935
3,175
2005
5,095
54
211
600
659
629
794
1,042
273
457
286
59
32
929
3,191
2006
5,117
55
213
588
668
627
790
1,058
280
456
287
63
32
922
3,213
Males 1981
2,495
35
128
400
445
364
298
424
118
194
77
8
3
610
1,603
1986
2,462
34
131
336
438
371
331
410
127
184
86
10
3
543
1,636
1991
2,445
34
132
324
377
394
345
415
124
192
91
13
3
522
1,623
1996
2,447
30
128
328
327
392
355
454
122
198
93
15
5
521
1,616
2000
2,432
28
118
326
315
347
377
474
125
199
100
17
6
505
1,606
2001
2,434
26
115
322
319
337
379
483
125
200
103
17
6
497
1,610
2002
2,432
26
111
319
324
325
382
490
125
202
106
17
7
489
1,612
2003
26
108
314
329
315
383
496
126
204
108
16
7
483
1,616
2,435
968
975
983
2004
2,446
28
107
312
332
310
384
503
129
207
111
16
7
479
1,627
2005
2,456
28
107
307
335
309
382
511
131
208
112
18
7
476
1,635
2006
2,469
28
109
301
340
310
380
517
135
208
113
20
8
472
1,649
Females 1981
2,685
33
121
380
430
359
305
456
142
265
155
27
11
579
1,506
1986
2,649
32
126
320
424
368
334
439
146
250
166
32
12
518
1,525
32
126
1991
2,639
309
369
402
351
437
141
249
168
38
16
499
1,528
1996
2,645
28
123
315
324
406
367
470
137
250
164
42
20
498
1,535
2000
2,631
26
112
310
313
369
397
488
138
246
166
43
22
480
1,535
2001
2,630
26
109
307
314
359
403
496
137
246
169
43
23
473
1,540
2002
2,623
25
106
303
315
344
406
504
137
247
171
41
23
466
1,538
2003
2,623
25
104
300
318
332
410
512
139
248
173
39
24
460
1,540
341
345
349
412
521
141
248
175
38
24
457
1,549
321
325
2004
2,632
26
103
297
2005
2,639
26
103
293
324
320
411
531
142
249
174
41
25
453
1,556
2006
2,647
27
104
287
328
317
410
541
145
247
174
43
25
450
1,564
Northern Ireland Persons 1981
1,543
27
106
282
271
200
175
227
68
116
57
..
..
444
874
1986
1,574
28
107
261
277
217
190
227
71
115
64
16
..
423
917
1991
1,607
26
106
260
256
240
200
241
70
121
69
14
6
417
945
244
257
1996
1,662
24
99
266
220
266
70
123
72
15
7
415
993
2000
1,683
22
95
259
237
247
243
284
73
123
75
16
7
403
1,020
2001
1,689
22
93
255
240
243
248
290
74
123
77
16
7
397
1,030
2002
1,697
22
91
253
243
238
251
296
75
125
79
16
7
393
1,037
2003
1,703
21
89
251
246
233
254
301
78
126
81
16
8
388
1,044
627
630
634
2004
1,710
22
87
248
250
229
256
305
81
127
82
16
8
383
1,052
257
310
84
128
83
17
8
381
1,064
2005
1,724
23
88
245
253
228
2006
1,742
23
89
242
258
229
259
316
87
130
83
18
8
380
1,077
Males 1981
757
14
54
145
140
102
87
109
32
50
21
..
..
228
454
1986
768
14
55
134
142
109
95
110
33
50
23
4
..
217
474
1991
783
13
54
133
131
119
100
118
32
53
26
4
1
213
487
1996
810
12
51
136
124
128
109
131
33
54
27
4
1
212
511
2000
820
11
49
133
120
122
119
141
35
55
29
5
2
207
524
2001
824
11
48
131
122
120
122
144
35
56
30
5
2
204
529
2002
829
11
47
130
124
117
123
147
36
56
31
5
2
202
534
2003
833
11
46
129
126
115
124
149
38
57
31
5
2
199
538
275
280
284
2004
836
11
45
127
128
113
125
151
39
58
32
5
2
197
542
2005
844
12
45
126
130
113
126
153
41
59
32
5
2
196
550
2006
853
12
46
124
132
113
127
156
42
60
33
6
2
195
558
Females 1981
786
13
52
137
130
98
88
118
37
66
37
..
..
216
420
1986
805
13
52
127
135
107
96
118
38
65
41
12
..
206
442
1991
824
13
52
127
125
121
100
123
38
67
44
10
4
203
458
1996
851
11
49
130
120
129
110
135
37
69
45
11
6
203
482
2000
862
11
46
126
118
125
124
143
38
68
46
11
6
196
497
2001
865
10
45
124
119
123
126
146
38
68
47
11
6
193
501
2002
868
11
44
123
119
120
128
149
39
68
48
11
6
191
504
2003
870
10
43
122
120
118
129
152
40
68
49
11
6
189
506
97
99
101
2004
2005
2006
178
181
183
874
880
888
11
11
11
42
43
43
121
119
118
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
50
122
123
126
116
115
115
130
131
132
154
157
160
42
43
45
69
69
69
50
50
51
11
11
12
6
6
6
187
186
185
509
514
520
282
283
299
310
322
327
331
336
600
606
612
612
616
617
619
622
224
234
246
253
259
262
266
271
75
77
83
87
90
92
94
95
150
157
163
167
169
170
173
175
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 1.5
Wi n t e r 2007
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Males
Total
population
Single
Married
Divorced
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,837
40,501
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,625
5,891
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,867
11,636
187
376
611
917
1,187
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
40,827
40,966
41,121
41,325
41,569
6,225
6,337
6,450
6,582
6,721
11,310
11,240
11,183
11,143
11,113
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
41,865
42,135
42,413
42,719
43,103
6,894
7,076
7,261
7,461
7,685
16–19
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,131
2,665
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Mid-year
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
682
686
698
695
727
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,103
19,441
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,617
4,817
12,566
12,538
12,284
12,000
11,833
296
533
828
1,165
1,459
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,953
2,951
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,734
21,060
1,346
1,379
1,405
1,433
1,456
733
734
735
732
731
19,614
19,690
19,773
19,890
20,022
5,168
5,288
5,406
5,526
5,650
11,433
11,353
11,284
11,235
11,199
1,730
1,781
1,827
1,875
1,927
2,881
2,855
2,832
2,800
2,772
21,212
21,276
21,349
21,435
21,547
11,090
11,015
10,940
10,863
10,800
1,482
1,535
1,590
1,644
1,695
733
731
728
726
723
20,198
20,357
20,520
20,694
20,904
5,798
5,961
6,128
6,306
6,515
11,150
11,073
11,000
10,935
10,880
1,975
2,035
2,096
2,156
2,215
2,745
2,709
2,668
2,628
2,588
21,667
21,778
21,892
22,025
22,199
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,587
1,358
34
28
20
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,596
1,366
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,484
1,267
142
129
93
49
32
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,535
1,300
2,402
2,478
2,532
2,543
2,523
1,209
1,246
1,274
1,280
1,276
6
6
6
6
6
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1,216
1,253
1,281
1,288
1,283
1,164
1,203
1,230
1,234
1,221
21
20
20
20
18
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1,186
1,225
1,251
1,255
1,240
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2,567
2,633
2,702
2,770
2,807
1,304
1,347
1,386
1,423
1,441
5
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1,312
1,353
1,391
1,427
1,443
1,237
1,266
1,299
1,332
1,355
16
13
12
11
9
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1,255
1,280
1,311
1,343
1,364
20–24
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,171
3,911
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,768
1,717
689
557
466
317
242
3
4
10
14
12
0
0
1
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,099
1,971
745
725
1,007
1,383
1,421
1,113
925
811
657
490
9
16
27
32
29
2
2
2
1
1
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3,291
3,141
3,047
3,047
3,088
1,538
1,479
1,442
1,449
1,470
117
99
86
78
74
3
3
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
1,658
1,580
1,530
1,530
1,548
1,361
1,325
1,306
1,320
1,352
260
225
201
188
180
11
9
8
8
8
1
1
1
1
1
1,633
1,561
1,517
1,517
1,540
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3,157
3,211
3,283
3,358
3,454
1,501
1,534
1,573
1,621
1,682
74
69
69
67
65
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1,579
1,607
1,646
1,692
1,751
1,390
1,428
1,466
1,499
1,545
178
166
161
156
149
8
8
8
8
8
1
1
1
2
2
1,578
1,604
1,637
1,665
1,703
25–29
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,713
4,154
431
533
588
835
1,132
1,206
1,326
1,057
949
856
16
39
54
79
82
1
2
1
1
1
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,863
2,071
215
267
331
527
800
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,207
1,158
29
65
89
113
123
4
5
4
4
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,850
2,083
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3,950
3,877
3,789
3,687
3,605
1,273
1,294
1,304
1,304
1,305
650
595
544
497
459
46
42
38
34
31
1
1
1
1
1
1,970
1,932
1,887
1,836
1,796
977
1,012
1,039
1,051
1,065
906
844
783
725
677
93
85
77
72
65
3
3
3
3
3
1,980
1,945
1,902
1,851
1,810
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3,487
3,348
3,262
3,260
3,327
1,293
1,276
1,271
1,292
1,335
420
371
337
318
305
28
26
25
24
23
1
1
1
1
1
1,742
1,674
1,634
1,635
1,664
1,059
1,052
1,053
1,080
1,132
625
567
524
497
483
58
52
49
47
46
3
3
2
2
2
1,745
1,674
1,628
1,625
1,663
Aged
1 The estimates by marital status for 1986 are based on the original mid-2001 population estimates, and are subject to further revision.
51
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 1.5
continued
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
England and Wales
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
30–34
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,338
3,708
206
236
318
355
520
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,197
1,172
23
55
97
124
155
3
3
3
2
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,679
1,849
111
118
165
206
335
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,293
1,330
34
75
129
154
189
8
8
9
6
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,660
1,859
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4,126
4,151
4,136
4,113
4,076
776
817
848
877
904
1,135
1,111
1,078
1,043
1,007
138
133
127
121
114
2
2
3
3
2
2,050
2,064
2,056
2,044
2,027
551
589
621
651
679
1,316
1,293
1,259
1,223
1,182
201
198
193
188
181
7
7
7
7
7
2,076
2,088
2,081
2,069
2,049
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
4,050
4,000
3,928
3,813
3,712
934
961
981
987
996
971
921
868
811
758
108
105
102
97
91
2
2
2
2
2
2,016
1,990
1,954
1,897
1,848
711
743
767
777
789
1,142
1,094
1,043
985
932
174
167
159
149
139
7
6
6
5
5
2,033
2,010
1,974
1,916
1,864
35–44
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
317
286
316
396
477
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,738
2,632
48
104
178
293
384
13
12
12
12
11
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
201
167
170
213
280
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,815
2,760
66
129
222
350
444
48
42
41
39
34
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
7,017
7,155
7,304
7,475
7,661
653
708
768
832
899
2,426
2,433
2,442
2,459
2,481
398
403
405
408
410
12
12
13
13
12
3,489
3,556
3,627
3,711
3,802
427
472
522
577
635
2,568
2,580
2,596
2,617
2,640
497
511
523
533
547
36
36
36
37
37
3,528
3,599
3,677
3,763
3,859
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
7,816
7,962
8,062
8,140
8,195
963
1,031
1,089
1,142
1,195
2,494
2,489
2,471
2,445
2,415
411
424
435
444
449
12
12
12
11
11
3,881
3,955
4,006
4,043
4,070
692
751
805
858
911
2,649
2,650
2,634
2,614
2,584
558
571
583
593
597
36
35
34
32
31
3,935
4,007
4,056
4,098
4,124
45–64
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
502
496
480
461
456
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,422
4,394
81
141
218
331
456
173
160
147
141
127
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,355
5,433
569
462
386
327
292
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,220
4,211
125
188
271
388
521
733
683
620
570
503
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,505
5,527
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11,820
11,927
12,055
12,198
12,328
528
545
565
589
615
4,587
4,593
4,608
4,627
4,638
628
656
681
706
727
121
120
121
121
121
5,864
5,914
5,974
6,043
6,101
318
328
340
355
372
4,466
4,486
4,512
4,541
4,564
732
770
807
844
881
440
430
422
415
410
5,956
6,014
6,080
6,155
6,227
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
12,447
12,580
12,715
12,857
13,029
644
671
702
736
774
4,647
4,649
4,647
4,644
4,651
747
780
815
850
888
121
120
118
117
116
6,159
6,220
6,283
6,347
6,429
391
413
437
465
498
4,578
4,596
4,613
4,628
4,649
918
960
1,002
1,045
1,091
401
391
380
371
362
6,289
6,359
6,433
6,510
6,600
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,768
8,080
179
197
216
223
231
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,234
2,332
17
33
54
76
99
492
510
534
539
586
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,072
3,248
580
569
533
477
422
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,759
1,853
32
60
90
127
152
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,333
2,405
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,696
4,832
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8,221
8,237
8,258
8,262
8,287
247
248
250
251
252
2,390
2,404
2,418
2,431
2,449
134
143
152
161
171
597
597
597
594
593
3,367
3,391
3,417
3,437
3,466
369
358
348
338
327
1,897
1,904
1,913
1,922
1,938
196
207
218
230
243
2,393
2,377
2,362
2,336
2,313
4,854
4,845
4,841
4,825
4,821
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
8,342
8,400
8,461
8,520
8,579
254
256
258
259
261
2,478
2,511
2,544
2,575
2,605
183
197
211
225
241
595
595
594
593
592
3,510
3,557
3,607
3,653
3,699
318
308
301
293
286
1,960
1,987
2,015
2,044
2,074
259
276
294
314
334
2,295
2,272
2,244
2,216
2,186
4,832
4,843
4,854
4,867
4,880
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
52
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 1.6
Wi n t e r 2007
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
England2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
Other
changes
Population at
end of
period
– 55
– 33
..
..
..
+ 16
+ 18
..
..
..
56,216
56,352
56,684
57,439
58,164
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
59,113
59,323
59,557
59,846
60,238
60,587
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
+ 58
+ 27
+ 65
+148
+145
766
705
733
782
756
670
662
662
647
639
+ 96
+ 42
+ 70
+135
+117
–
–
–
+
+
55
33
5
13
29
–
–
–
–
–
58,164
59,113
59,323
59,557
59,846
60,238
+190
+210
+234
+289
+393
+349
706
663
682
707
717
734
623
601
605
603
591
575
+83
+62
+77
+104
+127
+159
+107
+148
+157
+185
+266
+190
..
..
..
..
..
..
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
+ 61
+ 35
+ 73
+150
+132
644
612
639
689
668
588
582
582
569
563
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
+106
–
–
+
+
+
28
9
16
30
27
+ 10
+ 11
..
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
..
– 29
– 17
..
..
..
+ 13
+ 14
..
..
..
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
51,410
+190
+212
+225
+260
+362
+310
626
591
608
631
641
657
548
530
532
531
520
506
+ 78
+ 61
+ 76
+101
+121
+151
+112
+151
+149
+159
+241
+159
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
52,360
52,572
52,797
53,057
53,419
53,729
+ 50
+ 32
+ 73
+137
+129
627
577
603
651
632
552
546
547
535
528
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
+104
–
–
+
+
+
35
11
18
21
24
+ 1
+ 6
..
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
..
– 27
– 15
..
..
..
+ 10
+ 12
..
..
..
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,519
593
560
578
600
608
623
514
497
498
498
487
474
+ 79
+ 63
+ 79
+102
+121
+149
+107
+139
+135
+143
+234
+148
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
49450
49652
49866
50111
50466
50763
12
3
1
12
4
37
35
36
38
36
36
36
35
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
+
+
–
+
+
7
2
1
8
2
+10
+ 5
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2
2
..
..
..
+ 3
+ 2
..
..
..
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,891
+ 4
+ 10
+ 11
+ 15
+ 7
+ 12
33
30
31
32
33
33
34
33
33
33
33
31
– 1
– 3
– 3
– 1
0
+ 2
+ 5
+ 12
+ 14
+ 17
+ 7
+ 10
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2,910
2,920
2,931
2,946
2,954
2,966
–
11
14
6
2
73
66
66
66
63
64
64
64
62
61
+
+
+
+
+
9
2
2
3
1
– 14
– 16
– 16
– 9
– 0
– 4
– 7
– 7
..
..
– 10
– 10
– 7
..
..
+ 4
+ 4
+ 1
..
..
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
– 6
– 9
+ 3
+ 21
+ 16
+ 22
56
51
52
54
54
55
59
57
58
58
57
55
– 3
– 6
– 7
– 4
– 2
0
– 3
– 3
+ 9
+ 25
+ 19
+ 22
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
5,095
5,117
–
–
–
–
+
7
3
1
1
..
– 1
+ 17
–
–
–
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,662
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
1,724
1,742
51,410
52,360
52,572
52,797
53,057
53,419
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Wales2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
48,519
49,450
49,652
49,866
50,111
50,466
+186
+203
+214
+245
+355
+297
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
+
+
–
+
+
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
2,891
2,910
2,920
2,931
2,946
2,954
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
5,095
–
–
–
+
1
1
1
4
1
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
–
+
+
+
+
3
3
6
7
11
28
27
28
27
25
17
17
16
16
15
+
+
+
+
+
11
10
12
12
9
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
1,662
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
1,724
+ 6
+ 7
+ 6
+ 8
+ 14
+ 17
23
21
21
22
22
23
15
14
15
15
14
14
+ + + + + + 8
7
7
7
8
8
14
8
5
5
2
– 3
0
– 1
0
+ 6
+ 9
–
–
–
–
{
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
England and Wales2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
Total Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
annual
Net civilian migration
change
Live
Deaths
Natural
births
change
1
Total
To/from To/from
To/from
(Live births –
rest of UK
Irish Republic
rest of the
deaths)
world
{
United Kingdom2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
Population at
start of period
–
–
{
Mid-year to
mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
7
4
3
3
..
–
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
{
1 For UK, England, Wales and Scotland from 1981 onwards, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration; it also includes “other” changes. It has been derived by subtraction using revised population estimates and natural change.
2 Data for Mid 2002–Mid 2005 for United Kingdom, England and for Wales, have been updated to include the latest revised population estimates that take into account improved estimates of
international migration.
53
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 2.1
Win t e r 2 0 07
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Civil
Partnerships
Number
Rate1
Number
Rate2
Number
Rate3 Number Rate4
United Kingdom
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.8
12.6
61.1
91.3
154.3
236.1
260.4
90
125
204
298
355
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
317.5
..
49.4
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
700.0
679.0
669.1
668.8
695.6
11.9
11.5
11.3
11.3
11.7
271.6
268.1
268.0
271.7
288.5
388
395
401
406
415
301.1
305.9
286.1
293.0
308.6
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
2004
2005
2006
716.0
722.5
748.6P
12.0
12.0
12.4P
302.6
310.2
326.8P
423
429
437P
313.6
286.2P
..
..
..
..
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
173.2
179.0
190.3
180.1
11.7
11.9
12.5
11.9
74.5
75.0
82.5
78.2
430
419
434
434
35.1P
79.0P
120.8P
51.4P
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
178.9P
186.0P
195.2P
188.5P
77.5P
80.2P
85.8P
83.3P
433P
431P
439P
442P
2007 March
June
183.6P
..
12.0P
12.3P
12.8P
12.3P
12.2P
..
81.6P
..
444P
..
England and Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
584.3
634.5
661.0
699.2
649.5
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.6
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
232.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
621.9
604.4
594.6
596.1
621.5
12.0
11.6
11.4
11.3
11.8
2004
2005
2006
639.7
645.8
669.6
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality6
Neonatal
mortality7
Number
Rate5
Number
Rate1
Number
:
:
:
:
:
135.4
156.4
168.2
173.5
171.7
..
11.3
..
..
..
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
12.1
11.7
11.7
11.2
10.9
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
4.50
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.00
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
12.25
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.41
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.7
:
:
:
:
:
158.7
154.6
156.8
160.5
166.7
..
..
..
..
..
632.1
608.4
602.3
606.2
612.0
10.8
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
4.05
3.79
3.66
3.50
3.69
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.3
2.73
2.63
2.43
2.36
2.53
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.6
5.79
5.56
5.39
5.57
5.96
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.3
8.5
:
1.9510
16.11 P
:
..
..
167.1
155.1
148.1P
..
..
..
583.1
582.7
572.2P
9.7
9.7
9.4P
3.61
3.68
3.74P
5.0
5.1
5.0P
2.46
2.53
2.61P
3.4
3.5
3.5P
6.00
5.82
5.94P
8.3
8.0
7.9P
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
1.9510
:
:
:
..
39.4
40.0
38.9
36.7
..
..
..
..
165.1
141.1
130.9
145.5
11.1
9.5
8.7
9.7
0.95
0.93
0.91
0.90
5.5
5.2
4.8
5.0
0.64
0.64
0.66
0.59
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
1.39
1.53
1.49
1.42
8.0
8.5
7.8
7.8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
4.87P
4.36P
4.49P
2.38P
..
..
..
..
37.7P
36.7P
37.0P
36.7P
..
..
..
..
159.9P
141.4P
130.7P
140.2P
10.7P
9.4P
8.6P
9.2P
0.90P
0.94P
0.93P
0.97P
5.1P
5.0P
4.8P
5.1P
0.61P
0.65P
0.67P
0.68P
3.4P
3.5P
3.4P
3.6P
1.45P
1.50P
1.54P
1.45P
8.1P
8.0P
7.8P
7.7P
..
..
..
..
1.69P
2.37P
..
..
..
..
..
..
159.2P
..
10.6P
..
0.88P
..
4.8P
..
0.61P
..
3.3P
..
1.25P
..
6.8P
..
92
128
214
302
358
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
279.0
57.7
49.6
43.6
36.0
30.9
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
157.1
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
13.8
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
560.1
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.9
8.34
7.02
6.31
5.16
3.99
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.1
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.68
9.7
10.45
6.7
7.56
5.3
6.37
4.4
5.65
4.1
5.62
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.6
241.9
238.6
238.1
242.0
257.2
389
395
400
406
414
263.5
268.0
249.2
255.6
270.1
27.8
27.8
25.4
25.6
26.4
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
144.6
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
12.9
12.7
12.9
13.4
14.0
556.1
535.7
530.4
533.5
538.3
10.7
10.3
10.1
10.1
10.2
3.62
3.38
3.24
3.13
3.31
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
2.44
2.34
2.14
2.13
2.26
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
5.14
4.96
4.76
4.99
5.36
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
12.1
12.1
12.5
269.7
276.5
291.4
422
428
435
273.1
247.2P
..
26.1
23.0P
..
:
1.8610
14.94
:
5.710
1.4
153.4
141.8
132.6
14.1
13.1
12.3
512.5
512.7
502.6P
9.7
9.7
9.4P
3.22
3.26
3.37P
5.0
5.0
5.0P
2.21
2.23
2.35P
3.5
3.4
3.5P
5.39
5.21
5.36P
8.4
8.0
8.0P
154.3
159.8
170.2
161.7
11.7
12.0
12.6
12.0
66.3
66.6
73.7
69.9
430
417
433
433
30.3P
68.1P
105.0P
43.8P
11.5P
25.5P
38.8P
16.2P
:
:
:
1.8610
:
:
:
5.7
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
13.6
13.5
13.0
12.2
145.7
123.8
114.7
128.5
11.0
9.4
8.6
9.6
0.85
0.82
0.79
0.80
5.5
5.2
4.6
4.9
0.57
0.56
0.57
0.52
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.2
1.25
1.35
1.34
1.28
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
159.5
166.2
174.9
169.0
12.0
12.4
12.9
12.5
68.7
71.4
76.8
74.5
431
430
439
441
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
4.58
4.01
4.18
2.18
1.7
1.5
1.5
0.8
34.3
33.0
32.9
32.4
12.8
12.2
12.0
11.8
141.0P
123.9P
114.6P
123.1P
10.6P
9.2P
8.5P
9.1P
0.82P
0.84P
0.85P
0.86P
5.2P
5.1P
4.8P
5.1P
0.56P
0.58P
0.60P
0.60P
3.5P
3.5P
3.4P
3.6P
1.32P
1.37P
1.38P
1.30P
8.2P
8.2P
7.9P
7.6P
2007 March
June
163.3P
..
12.2P
..
442P
..
..
..
..
..
1.56P
2.16P
0.6P
0.8P
34.7P
33.1P
13.0P 139.2P
12.2P
..
10.4P
..
0.80P
..
4.9P
..
0.55P
..
3.4P
..
1.23P
..
7.5P
..
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
72.1P
..
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.7
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
218.2
92
129
214
301
355
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
264.2
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
..
..
146.0
150.1
148.7
..
..
..
..
..
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
12.0
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.8
7.83
6.50
5.92
4.86
3.74
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.53
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.1
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.36
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
589.5
572.8
563.7
565.7
589.9
12.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
11.8
226.7
223.8
223.3
227.0
241.4
385
391
396
401
409
249.5
253.8
236.2
242.1
255.6
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
137.0
133.9
136.4
140.2
145.8
..
..
..
..
..
519.6
501.0
496.1
499.1
503.4
10.8
10.2
10.0
10.1
10.1
3.38
3.18
3.04
2.97
3.14
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
2.29
2.21
2.02
2.02
2.15
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7
4.86
4.69
4.51
4.75
5.09
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
2004
2005
2006
607.2
613.0
635.7
12.1
12.1
12.5
253.1
259.4
273.5
417
423
430
258.2
233.2P
..
..
..
..
:
1.7910
14.38
:
..
..
145.5
134.6
125.6
..
..
..
479.2
479.4
470.3
9.6
9.6
9.3P
3.03
3.10
3.19P
5.0
5.0
5.0P
2.09
2.12
2.24P
3.4
3.5
3.5P
5.10
4.92
5.11P
8.4
8.0
8.0P
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
146.4
151.8
161.4
153.4
11.8
12.1
12.7
12.1
62.1
62.5
69.1
65.6
424
412
428
428
28.7P
64.2P
99.0P
41.3P
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
1.7910
:
:
:
..
34.4
34.7
33.8
31.7
..
..
..
..
136.2
115.7
107.3
120.3
10.9
9.3
8.5
9.6
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.75
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.9
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.50
1.18
1.28
1.27
1.18
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.7
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
151.4
157.8
166.0
160.5
12.1
12.5
13.0
12.5
64.5
67.0
72.0
70.0
426
425
434
436
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
4.42
3.86
4.02
2.09
..
..
..
..
32.5
31.2
31.2
30.7
..
..
..
..
132.0P
115.9P
107.1P
115.3P
10.5P
9.2P
8.4P
9.0P
0.79P
0.80P
0.80P
0.81P
5.2P
5.1P
4.8P
5.0P
0.54P
0.56P
0.57P
0.57P
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.6P
3.5P
3.4P
3.6P
1.26P
1.31P
1.31P
1.24P
8.3P
8.2P
7.8P
7.7P
2007 March
June 155.1P
..
12.3P
..
67.8P
..
437P
..
..
..
..
..
1.50P
2.06P
..
..
32.8P
31.3P
..
..
130.2P
..
10.3P
..
0.74P
..
4.8P
..
0.52P
..
3.3P
..
1.16P
..
7.4P
..
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year up
to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. Provisional death
figures for 2006 and 2007 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons usually
resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the totals for
England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the figures for
Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
National Statistics
54
Rate2 Number
Perinatal
mortality8
Rate2 Number Rate9
Birth and death rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised midyear population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
Birth and death rates for 2007 are based on the 2006-based population projections for 2007.
Marriage and divorce rates in England and Wales for 1986 have been calculated using the
interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates) and are
subject to further revision.
Marriage, civil partnership and divorce rates in England and Wales have been updated to include
the latest revised marital status estimates for 2002 to 2005 that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
Rates for 2007 are based on 2006 marital status estimates.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 2.1
continued
Wi n t e r 2007
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Civil
Partnerships
Number
Rate1
Number
Rate2
Number
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.3
12.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
14.4
86
112
211
323
412
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
14.8
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
..
..
7.8
8.4
8.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
32.1
31.3
30.6
30.2
31.4
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.7
14.8
14.8
14.8
15.0
15.8
461
472
483
497
503
14.0
14.1
13.0
13.5
14.5
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
2004
2005
2006
32.3
32.6
33.6
11.0
11.0
11.3
16.6
17.1
17.8
513
524
530
14.9
14.0P
..
..
..
..
:
0.0710
0.56
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.8
7.9
8.7
8.2
10.8
10.7
11.6
11.0
4.1
4.0
4.6
4.3
529
510
530
527
1.6P
3.9P
5.9P
2.5P
..
..
..
..
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
8.1
8.3
8.8
8.4
11.1
11.2
11.8
11.2
4.2
4.3
4.8
4.5
520
523
543
535
..
..
..
..
2007 March
June
8.1P
..
11.0P
..
4.3P
..
535P
..
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.2
11.6
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
21.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
55.1
53.1
52.5
51.3
52.4
10.9
10.5
10.4
10.1
10.4
2004
2005
2006
54.0
54.4
55.7
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
Neonatal
mortality7
Rate2 Number
Perinatal
mortality8
Number
..
..
..
..
..
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.9
12.0
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.20
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.13
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
3.6
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.26
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
7.5
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.7
..
..
..
..
..
35.0
33.3
33.0
33.2
33.7
12.1
11.5
11.3
11.4
11.5
0.20
0.17
0.16
0.14
0.13
6.1
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.3
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.1
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24
7.7
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
:
..
..
7.9
7.2
6.9
..
..
..
32.1
32.1
31.1P
10.9
10.9
10.5P
0.16
0.13
0.14P
4.9
4.1
4.1P
0.10
0.09
0.09P
3.1
2.9
2.8P
0.26
0.24
0.23P
8.0
7.4
6.9P
:
:
:
0.0710
:
:
:
..
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
..
..
..
..
9.3
7.8
7.1
7.9
12.6
10.6
9.6
10.7
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
4.2
4.2
3.3
4.6
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
7.7
7.9
7.0
6.8
..
..
..
..
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.09
..
..
..
..
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
..
..
..
..
8.7P
7.6P
7.2P
7.5P
11.9P
10.3P
9.7P
10.1P
0.03P
0.03P
0.04P
0.04P
3.1P
4.1P
4.0P
5.1P
0.02P
0.02P
0.03P
0.03P
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.0P
2.4P
3.1P
3.6P
0.06P
0.05P
0.07P
0.06P
7.0P
6.3P
7.7P
6.6P
..
..
..
..
0.06P
0.10P
..
..
1.8P
1.8P
..
..
8.8P
..
11.9P
..
0.05P
..
6.3P
..
0.03P
..
3.7P
..
0.07P
..
8.4P
..
93
122
206
291
360
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
30.2
53.8
47.5
42.9
39.0
33.2
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
12.3
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
10.9
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.0
11.9
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.37
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.23
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.6
3.9
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.55
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.2
22.7
22.6
22.8
22.5
23.9
412
426
433
440
455
29.9
30.4
29.6
29.8
30.8
31.5
31.6
31.0
30.8
31.3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
11.9
11.1
10.6
10.8
10.1
10.9
10.3
9.7
10.0
10.2
60.3
57.8
57.4
58.1
58.5
11.9
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.6
0.28
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.27
5.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
0.18
0.21
0.20
0.16
0.18
3.3
4.0
3.8
3.2
3.4
0.42
0.45
0.45
0.39
0.42
7.6
8.4
8.5
7.6
8.0
10.6
10.7
10.9P
25.2
25.6
26.6
467
471
477
32.2
30.9
29.9
32.2
30.3
28.7
:
0.0810
1.05
:
2.510
1.0
11.2
10.9
13.0
10.5
10.3
12.3
56.2
55.7
55.1P
11.1
11.0
10.8P
0.27
0.28
0.25P
4.9
5.2
4.5P
0.17
0.19
0.17P
3.1
3.5
3.1P
0.44
0.42
0.42P
8.1
7.7
7.4P
13.4
13.6
14.2
13.2
10.6
10.7
11.1
10.3
6.2
6.4
6.7
6.3
464
472
471
477
3.8
8.6
12.3
6.1
15.3
34.0
48.0
23.7
:
:
:
0.0810
:
:
:
2.510
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
10.0
10.7
10.1
10.3
15.6
13.7
12.8
13.6
12.4
10.8
10.0
10.7
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.07
5.0
5.1
5.6
5.2
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.10
7.0
9.2
7.6
7.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.6
14.0
14.2
13.9
10.8
11.0
11.0
10.8
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.6
487
475
471
477
3.5
8.3
12.2
5.9
13.6
32.1
46.4
22.4
0.26
0.32
0.28
0.19
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.7
2.6
3.1
3.6
3.7
10.1
11.7
13.4
14.1
14.9
13.9
12.7
13.6
11.8
10.9
9.8
10.6
0.05P
0.07P
0.05P
0.07P
3.7P
5.0P
3.8P
5.3P
0.03P
0.05P
0.04P
0.04P
3.3
3.4
3.9
3.4
2.4P
3.3P
2.9P
3.7P
0.09P
0.09P
0.11P
0.12P
6.7P
6.4P
7.8P
8.7P
2007 March
June
14.2P
14.3P
11.3P
11.3P
7.1P
6.9P
501P
482P
3.3P
..
13.0P
..
0.11P
0.18P
0.4P
0.7P
3.1P
..
11.9P
..
15.8P
13.4P
12.5P
10.5P
0.07P
0.08P
4.9P
5.3P
0.05P
0.05P
3.6P
3.4P
0.12P
0.12P
8.1P
8.6P
Northern Ireland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.3
17.6
17.8
16.2
14.7
1.3
1.9
3.6
5.3
6.3
50
70
128
203
260
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
8.3
..
45.4
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
0.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
2.3
..
4.2
..
..
..
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
11.2
10.6
10.3
9.4
9.2
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.19
0.14
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
0.35
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.09
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
23.0
21.5
22.0
21.4
21.6
13.7
12.8
13.0
12.6
12.7
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.2
7.4
303
318
325
335
344
7.6
7.6
7.3
7.6
7.8
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.3
..
..
..
..
..
15.7
14.9
14.5
14.6
14.5
9.3
8.9
8.6
8.6
8.5
0.15
0.11
0.13
0.10
0.11
6.4
5.1
6.1
4.7
5.3
0.11
0.08
0.10
0.07
0.09
2004
2005
2006
22.3
22.3
23.3P
13.0
12.9
13.4P
7.7
8.1
8.8P
345
363
380P
8.3
8.1
8.3P
..
..
..
:
0.0110
0.12P
:
..
..
2.5
2.4
2.6P
..
..
..
14.4
14.2
14.5P
8.4
8.3
8.4P
0.12
0.14
0.12P
5.5
6.3
5.2P
0.08
0.11
0.09P
3.7
5.1
3.9P
0.18
0.18
0.17P
8.2
8.1
7.1P
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.2
13.0
13.3
13.7
11.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
363
359
358
373
0.9
2.2
3.5
1.4
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
0.0110
:
:
:
..
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.5
..
..
..
..
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.4
8.9
8.6
7.8
7.9
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
5.2
7.2
6.6
6.0
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
8.8
8.4
7.2
7.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.8P
5.8P
6.1P
5.6P
13.6P
13.3P
13.9P
12.8P
2.2P
2.2P
2.3P
2.2P
370P
381P
358P
393P
0.9P
2.3P
3.5P
1.5P
..
..
..
..
0.03P
0.04P
0.03P
0.02P
..
..
..
..
0.7P
0.7P
0.5P
0.6P
..
..
..
..
4.0P
3.6P
3.4P
3.5P
9.4P
8.4P
7.8P
7.9P
0.03P
0.03P
0.03P
0.03P
5.3P
4.7P
4.9P
5.9P
0.02P
0.02P
0.02P
0.03P
4.3
5.6
5.6
4.6
3.3P
3.6P
3.6P
5.0P
0.04P
0.04P
0.05P
0.04P
6.8P
7.4P
7.5P
6.4P
2007 March
June
6.1P
6.9P
14.2P
13.3P
2.4P
2.2P
383P
317P
1.0P
2.4P
..
..
0.02P
0.03P
..
..
..
..
..
..
4.2P
3.6P
9.6P
8.2P
0.04P
0.03P
6.8P
5.2P
0.03P
0.02P
4.7P
3.0P
0.05P
0.04P
7.8P
6.8P
7
8
9
10
p
Rate5
Infant
mortality6
Rate1
Per 1,000 population of all ages.
Per 1,000 live births.
Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
Persons forming a civil partnership per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
Deaths under 1 year.
Number
Deaths
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
Rate3 Number Rate4
Divorces
Rate2 Number Rate9
13.3
0.59
8.3
0.42
8.3
0.42
4.6
0.22
3.7
0.23
4.8
0.23
3.8
0.15
4.5
0.19
3.5
0.19
4.0
0.18
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
9.4
10.0
7.3
8.5
8.9
8.1
Deaths under 4 weeks.
Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week.
Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK - see Notes to
tables.
provisional
55
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 2.2
Win t e r 2 0 07
Key demographic and health indicators
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Dependency ratio
Live births Population
Live Deaths
Children1
Elderly2
TFR3
births
Standardised Unstand-
mean age
ardised
of mother mean age of
at birth
mother at (years)4
birth (years) 5
Period expectation of life (in years) at birth7
Outside
marriage as
percentage
of total
live births
Age-
standardised
mortality
rate6
Males Females
Infant
mortality
rate8
United Kingdom
1976
56,216.1
1981
56,357.5
1986
56,683.8
1991
57,438.7
1996
58,164.4
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.2
33.9
29.5
29.7
29.7
30.0
30.0
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.73
26.7
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.6
9.0
12.5
20.4
29.8
35.5
10,486
9,506
8,914
8,168
7,584
..
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
..
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
2001
20029
20039
20049
20059
59,113.5
59,323.5
59,557.3
59,845.8
60,238.4
669.1
668.8
695.6
716.0
722.5
602.3
606.2
612.0
583.1
582.7
32.6
32.2
31.8
31.4
31.0
29.8
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.0
1.63
1.64
1.71
1.77
1.78
28.6
28.7
28.8
28.9
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
40.1
40.6
41.5
42.3
42.9
6,807
6,765
6,758
6,394
6,268
75.6
75.9
76.2
76.5
76.9
80.4
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.3
5.5
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
2006
60,587.3
748.6 p
572.2p
30.6
30.1
1.84p
29.1
29.5
43.7
6,067p
..
..
5.0p
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,187.6
47,875.0
48,519.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.9
33.7
29.7
29.9
29.8
30.0
30.0
1.70
1.79
1.76
1.81
1.73
26.5
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.7
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
35.5
10,271
9,298
8,725
8,017
7,414
..
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
..
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
2001
20029
20039
20049
20059
49,449.7
49,652.3
49,866.2
50,110.7
50,465.6
563.7
565.7
589.9
607.2
613.0
496.1
499.1
503.4
479.2
479.4
32.5
32.1
31.8
31.4
30.9
29.7
29.7
29.8
29.8
29.9
1.63
1.65
1.73
1.78
1.79
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
29.5
39.6
40.1
40.9
41.7
42.3
6,650
6,603
6,602
6,232
6,110
75.9
76.1
76.5
76.8
77.2
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.0
2006
50,762.9
635.7 470.3p
30.6
29.9
1.86
29.2
29.5 43.0
5,916
..
..
5.0p
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,810.9
2,873.0
2,891.3
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
42.0
37.6
34.3
34.4
34.9
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.5
33.7
1.78
1.87
1.86
1.88
1.81
26.2
26.7
26.9
27.1
27.5
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.8
8.6
11.2
21.1
32.3
41.2
10,858
9,846
9,043
8,149
7,758
..
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.8
..
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
2001
20029
20039
20049
20059
2,910.2
2,919.8
2,931.1
2,946.4
2,953.6
30.6
30.2
31.4
32.3
32.6
33.0
33.2
33.7
32.1
32.1
33.7
33.3
32.8
32.3
31.8
33.6
33.7
33.8
33.9
34.1
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.78
1.81
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.2
28.4
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.5
28.5
48.3
49.7
50.3
51.3
52.4
7,017
6,953
6,984
6,588
6,442
75.3
75.5
75.8
76.1
76.6
80.0
80.1
80.3
80.6
80.9
5.4
4.5
4.3
4.9
4.1
2006
2,965.9
33.6 31.1p
31.4
34.3
1.86
28.5
28.6 53.0
6,190
..
..
4.1p
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,111.8
5,083.3
5,092.2
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
44.7
38.2
33.6
32.4
32.3
28.4
28.4
28.1
28.9
29.2
1.79
1.84
1.67
1.69
1.56
26.4
26.8
27.1
27.5
28.0
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.5
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
36.0
11,675
10,849
10,120
9,216
8,791
..
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
..
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
5,064.2
5,054.8
5,057.4
5,078.4
5,094.8
52.5
51.3
52.4
54.0
54.4
57.4
58.1
58.5
56.2
55.7
30.8
30.3
29.9
29.5
29.1
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.5
30.6
1.49
1.48
1.54
1.60
1.62
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.5
43.3
44.0
45.5
46.7
47.1
7,930
7,955
7,921
7,536
7,349
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6 78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6 5.5
5.3
5.1
4.9
5.2
2006
5,116.9
55.7
55.1p
28.7
30.6
1.67
29.1
29.5
47.7 7,161
..
..
Northern Ireland
1976
1,523.5
1981
1,543.0
1986
1,573.5
1991
1,607.3
1996
1,661.8
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
56.1
50.6
46.1
44.1
41.8
25.3
25.3
25.5
26.1
25.5
2.68
2.59
2.45
2.16
1.95
27.8
28.1
28.3
28.3
28.8
27.4
27.5
27.5
28.0
28.8
5.0
7.0
12.8
20.3
26.0
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,303
7,742
..
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
..
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1,689.3
1,696.6
1,702.6
1,710.3
1,724.4
22.0
21.4
21.6
22.3
22.3
14.5
14.6
14.5
14.4
14.2
38.6
37.9
37.2
36.4
35.8
25.5
25.7
25.9
26.2
26.3
1.80
1.77
1.81
1.87
1.87
29.1
29.2
29.2
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.5
29.5
29.7
29.7
32.5
33.5
34.4
34.5
36.3
6,976
6,930
6,743
6,609
6,418
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
76.1
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
81.0
6.1
4.7
5.3
5.5
6.3
2006
1,741.6
23.3p
14.5p
35.3
26.4
1.94p
29.6p
29.7p
38.0 p
6,397p
..
..
5.2p
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005.
Provisional death figures for 2006 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons
usually resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the
total for the United Kingdom. From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern
Ireland are excluded from the figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
Period expectation of life data for the United Kingdom, England and for Wales for 2001 to
2005 based on revised population estimates for 2002 to 2005 (see footnote 9)
1 Percentage of children under 16 to working-age population (males 16–64 and females 16–59).
2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working-age population
(males 16–64 and females 16–59).
National Statistics
56
4.5P
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current
patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the
TPFR (total period fertility rate).
4 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population.
5 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
6 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes
in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
7 All countries: figures for all years based on registered deaths.
8 Deaths at age under one year per 1,000 live births.
9 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United
Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account
improved estimates of international migration.
p provisional
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 3.1
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
1961
Wi n t e r 2007
All
Under
20–24
25–29
30–34
ages
20
Total live births (numbers)
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age1
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
Age of mother at birth
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age2
(years)
TFR3
Age-specific fertility rates4
811.3
59.8
249.8
248.5
152.3
77.5
23.3
27.6
89.2
37.3
172.6
176.9
103.1
48.1
15.0
27.4
2.77
1964(max) 876.0
76.7
276.1
270.7
153.5
75.4
23.6
27.2
92.9
42.5
181.6
187.3
107.7
49.8
13.7
27.3
2.93
1966
849.8
86.7
285.8
253.7
136.4
67.0
20.1
26.8
90.5
47.7
176.0
174.0
97.3
45.3
12.5
27.1
2.75
1971
783.2
82.6
285.7
247.2
109.6
45.2
12.7
26.2
83.5
50.6
152.9
153.2
77.1
32.8
8.7
26.6
2.37
1976
584.3
57.9
182.2
220.7
90.8
26.1
6.5
26.4
60.4
32.2
109.3
118.7
57.2
18.6
4.8
26.5
1.71
1977(min) 569.3
54.5
174.5
207.9
100.8
25.5
6.0
26.5
58.1
29.4
103.7
117.5
58.6
18.2
4.4
26.6
1.66
1981
634.5
56.6
194.5
215.8
126.6
34.2
6.9
26.8
61.3
28.1
105.3
129.1
68.6
21.7
4.9
27.0
1.79
1986
661.0
57.4
192.1
229.0
129.5
45.5
7.6
27.0
60.6
30.1
92.7
123.8
78.0
24.6
4.8
27.4
1.77
1991
699.2
52.4
173.4
248.7
161.3
53.6
9.8
27.7
63.6
33.0
89.3 119.4
86.7
32.1
5.3
27.7
1.82
1992
689.7
47.9
163.3
244.8
166.8
56.7
10.2
27.9
63.6
31.7
86.1 117.6
87.4
33.4
5.8
27.8
1.80
1993
673.5
45.1
152.0
236.0
171.1
58.8
10.5
28.1
62.7
30.9
82.5 114.4
87.4
34.1
6.2
27.9
1.76
1994
664.7
42.0
140.2
229.1
179.6
63.1
10.7
28.4
62.0
28.9
79.0 112.2
35.8
6.4
28.1
1.75
89.4
1995
648.1
41.9
130.7
217.4
181.2
65.5
11.3
28.5
60.5
28.5
76.4 108.4
88.3
36.3
6.8
28.2
1.72
1996
649.5
44.7
125.7
211.1
186.4
69.5
12.1
28.6
60.6
29.7
77.0 106.6
89.8
37.5
7.2
28.2
1.74
1997
643.1
46.4
118.6
202.8
187.5
74.9
12.9
28.8
60.0
30.2
76.0 104.3
89.8
39.4
7.6
28.3
1.73
1998
635.9
48.3
113.5
193.1
188.5
78.9
13.6
28.9
59.2
30.9
74.9 101.5
90.6
40.4
7.9
28.3
1.72
1999
621.9
48.4
110.7
181.9
185.3
81.3
14.3
29.0
57.8
30.9
73.0
98.3
89.6
40.6
8.1
28.4
1.70
2000
604.4
45.8
107.7
170.7
180.1
85.0
15.1
29.1
55.9
29.3
70.0
94.3
87.9
41.4
8.3
28.5
1.65
2001
594.6
44.2
108.8
159.9
178.9
86.5
16.3
29.2
54.7
28.0
69.0
91.7
88.0
41.5
8.8
28.6
1.63
20025
596.1
43.5
110.9
153.4
180.5
90.5
17.3
29.3
54.7
27.1
69.1
91.5
89.9
43.0
9.1
28.7
1.65
20035
621.5
44.2
116.6
156.9
187.2
97.4
19.1
29.4
56.8
26.9
71.3
95.8
94.9
46.4
9.8
28.8
1.73
20045
639.7
45.1
121.1
160.0
190.6
102.2
20.8
29.4
58.2
26.9
72.8
97.6
99.6
48.8
10.4
28.9
1.78
5
2005 645.8
44.8
122.1
164.3
188.2
104.1
22.2
29.5
58.3
26.3
71.6
97.9
100.7
50.3
10.8
29.1
1.79
2006
669.6
45.5
127.8
172.6
189.4
110.5
23.7
29.5
60.2
26.6
73.2 100.6
104.8
53.8
11.4
29.1
1.86
2002 March 143.3
10.5
26.5
37.4
43.2
21.6
4.1
29.3
53.3
26.5
67.0
90.4
87.1
41.7
8.7
28.7
1.61
June 147.2
10.4
26.7
37.9
45.5
22.4
4.3
29.4
54.2
26.2
66.8
90.6
90.9
42.6
9.0
28.8
1.63
Sept 155.0
11.4
28.9
39.9
46.9
23.4
4.5
29.3
56.4
28.2
71.4
94.5
92.6
44.2
9.4
28.7
1.70
Dec 150.6
11.2
28.8
38.2
45.0
23.0
4.5
29.3
54.8
27.7
71.0
90.4
88.8
43.5
9.3
28.7
1.65
2003 March 147.4
10.9
27.9
37.5
44.0
22.6
4.6
29.3
54.7
26.8
69.1
92.8
90.5
43.7
9.6
28.8
1.66
June 155.1
10.7
28.5
39.3
47.4
24.5
4.7
29.5
56.9
26.0
70.0
96.4
96.4
46.9
9.6
28.9
1.73
Sept 162.8
11.5
30.5
41.0
49.3
25.6
5.0
29.4
59.1
27.7
74.0
99.4
99.2
48.3
10.1
28.9
1.79
Dec 156.0
11.2
29.7
39.1
46.5
24.6
4.8
29.4
56.6
27.1
72.1
94.6
93.6
46.5
9.8
28.8
1.72
2004 March 155.2
11.0
29.3
38.7
46.6
24.7
4.9
29.4
56.8
26.5
70.8
95.0
97.9
47.4
9.8
28.9
1.74
June 157.4
10.7
29.3
39.4
47.7
25.2
5.0
29.5
57.6
25.7
70.9
96.6
100.4
48.5
10.1
29.0
1.76
Sept 165.4
11.7
31.4
41.6
49.0
26.3
5.4
29.4
59.9
27.7
75.0 101.0
102.0
50.1
10.7
28.9
1.83
Dec 161.7
11.6
31.1
40.3
47.2
26.0
5.5
29.4
58.5
27.6
74.3
97.7
98.2
49.4
10.9
28.9
1.79
2005 March 154.3
10.9
29.3
38.9
45.0
24.7
5.4
29.4
56.5
26.0
69.6
94.0
97.6
48.5
10.7
29.0
1.74
June 159.8
10.7
29.6
40.3
47.5
26.2
5.4
29.5
57.8
25.3
69.7
96.2
101.9
50.8
10.6
29.1
1.78
Sept 170.2
11.9
32.5
43.7
49.4
26.9
5.7
29.4
60.9
27.6
75.7 103.2
104.9
51.6
11.1
29.0
1.88
Dec 161.7
11.3
30.7
41.4
46.3
26.3
5.7
29.4
57.9
26.3
71.3
97.9
98.3
50.4
11.0
29.0
1.78
2006 March 159.5
11.1
30.5
40.7
45.3
26.3
5.6
29.5
58.2
26.3
70.9
96.1
101.6
52.0
11.0
29.1
1.79
June 166.2
11.4
31.2
42.9
47.6
27.1
5.9
29.5
60.0
26.6
71.8 100.4
105.7
53.0
11.3
29.1
1.85
Sept 174.9
12.0
33.5
45.6
49.0
28.9
6.0
29.4
62.4
27.7
76.1 105.4
107.5
55.9
11.4
29.1
1.93
Dec 169.0
11.1
32.6
43.5
47.5
28.1
6.2
29.5
60.3
25.7
74.0 100.5
104.3
54.4
11.8
29.2
1.86
20076 March 163.3P
10.8P
30.8P
42.5P
45.5P
27.4P
6.3P
29.6P
59.4P
25.4P
70.1P
97.6P 105.8P
54.8P
12.1P
29.3P
1.83P
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
1 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population. 2 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population. This measure is more appropriate for use when analysing trends or making comparisons between different geographies.
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR (total period fertility rate). 4 Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality. 5 Birth rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
6 Birth rates for 2007 are based on the 2006-based population projections for 2007. p provisional.
57
National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0
Table 3.2
Win t e r 2 0 07
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age1
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Registration2
35–39 40 and
over
Joint
Sole
Same3 Different3
address addresses
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
Percentage of total live births
in age group
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
{
1971
65.7
21.6
22.0
11.5
6.2
3.2
1.1
23.7
8.4
26.1
7.7
4.7
5.7
7.0
9.0 45.5
1976
53.8
19.8
16.6
9.7
4.7
2.3
0.7
23.3
9.2
34.2
9.1
4.4
5.2
8.6
10.1 51.0
1981
81.0
26.4
28.8
14.3
7.9
1.3
0.9
23.4
12.8
46.7
14.8
6.6
6.2
3.9
12.5 58.2
1986
141.3
39.6
54.1
27.7
13.1
5.7
1.1
23.8
21.4
69.0
28.2
12.1
10.1
12.6
14.7
46.6
19.6
1991
211.3
43.4
77.8
52.4
25.7
9.8
2.1
24.8
30.2
82.9
44.9
21.1
16.0
18.3
21.3
54.6
19.8
1992
215.2
40.1
77.1
55.9
28.9
10.9
2.3
25.2
31.2
83.7
47.2
22.8
17.3
19.3
22.9
55.4
20.7
1993
216.5
38.2
75.0
57.5
31.4
11.9
2.5
25.5
32.2
84.8
49.4
24.4
18.4
20.2
23.5
54.8
22.0
1994
215.5
35.9
71.0
58.5
34.0
13.4
2.7
25.8
32.4
85.5
50.6
25.5
18.9
21.2
25.2
57.5
19.8
1995
219.9
36.3
69.7
59.6
37.0
14.4
3.0
26.0
33.9
86.6
53.3
27.4
20.4
22.0
26.2
58.1
20.1
1996
232.7
39.3
71.1
62.3
40.5
16.2
3.2
26.1
35.8
88.0
56.5
29.5
21.7
23.4
26.7
58.1
19.9
1997
238.2
41.1
69.5
63.4
42.2
18.2
3.7
26.2
37.0
88.7
58.6
31.3
22.5
24.3
28.6
59.5
19.3
1998
240.6
43.0
67.8
62.4
43.9
19.6
3.9
26.3
37.8
89.1
59.7
32.3
23.3
24.8
29.0
60.9
18.3
1999
241.9
43.0
67.5
61.2
45.0
20.8
4.3
26.4
38.9
89.0
61.0
33.6
24.3
25.6
30.2
61.8
18.2
2000
238.6
41.1
67.5
59.1
43.9
22.3
4.7
26.5
39.5
89.7
62.6
34.6
24.4
26.2
31.0
62.7
18.2
2001
238.1
39.5
68.1
56.8
45.2
23.3
5.1
26.7
40.0
89.5
62.6
35.5
25.3
26.9
31.6
63.2
18.4
2002
242.0
38.9
70.2
55.8
46.4
25.1
5.6
26.8
40.6
89.5
63.3
36.4
25.7
27.7
32.2
63.7
18.5
2003
257.2
39.9
75.7
58.2
49.2
27.8
6.4
26.9
41.4
90.2
64.9
37.1
26.3
28.5
33.3
63.5
19.0
269.7
41.0
79.8
61.4
50.7
29.7
7.1
27.0
42.2
91.0
65.9
38.4
26.6
29.0
34.0
63.6
19.6
2004
2005
276.5
41.2
82.1
64.4
50.8
30.3
7.7
27.0
42.8
91.8
67.2
39.2
27.0
29.1
34.8
63.5
20.2
2006
291.4
42.3
87.7
69.3
51.4 32.2
8.4
27.0
43.5
93.0
68.6
40.1
27.1
29.2
35.5
63.7
20.8
58.0
9.4
16.7
13.6
10.9
6.0
1.3
26.8
40.5
89.4
63.0
36.4
25.4
27.7
31.5
63.2
18.5
2002 March
June
58.3
9.3
16.6
13.5
11.4
6.1
1.4
26.8
39.6
89.4
62.2
35.6
25.0
27.2
31.7
64.2
18.2
Sept
63.4
10.2
18.4
14.6
12.3
6.5
1.5
26.8
40.9
89.3
63.8
36.6
26.1
27.9
32.7
63.9
18.5
Dec
62.3
10.0
18.4
14.1
11.9
6.5
1.5
26.8
41.4
89.7
64.1
36.9
26.4
28.0
32.8
63.3
18.9
2003 March
61.0
9.8
18.0
13.9
11.6
6.3
1.5
26.8
41.4
90.1
64.5
37.0
26.9
29.1
33.3
63.0
18.9
June
62.8
9.6
18.3
14.2
12.2
6.9
1.6
27.0
40.5
90.0
64.0
36.2
25.7
28.3
33.7
64.0
18.5
Sept
67.6
10.3
20.0
15.3
13.0
7.3
1.7
26.9
41.5
90.2
65.6
38.3
26.4
28.6
33.3
63.7
19.3
Dec
65.8
10.2
19.5
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.6
26.9
42.2
90.4
65.6
38.0
27.7
29.5
32.9
63.3
19.4
2004 March
65.2
10.1
19.3
14.8
12.5
7.0
1.7
26.9
42.0
91.2
65.8
38.2
26.8
28.2
34.3
63.1
19.4
June
65.2
9.8
19.1
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.7
27.0
41.4
91.0
65.1
37.7
26.2
28.8
34.5
63.9
19.5
Sept
70.2
10.7
20.7
16.1
13.0
7.9
1.8
27.0
42.4
91.2
66.1
38.6
26.5
30.0
33.5
63.7
19.7
Dec
69.1
10.6
20.7
15.7
12.7
7.5
1.9
26.9
42.7
90.6
66.6
39.0
27.0
29.0
33.9
63.6
19.8
2005 March
66.3
10.1
19.6
15.2
12.2
7.3
1.9
27.0
43.0
92.0
67.0
39.0
27.1
29.6
35.2
63.1
20.3
June
66.6
9.8
19.7
15.4
12.5
7.4
1.8
27.0
41.7
91.2
66.5
38.2
26.4
28.1
33.5
63.7
19.8
Sept
73.7
10.9
22.1
17.3
13.4
7.9
2.1
26.9
43.3
92.0
68.0
39.6
27.2
29.3
35.7
63.7
20.3
Dec
69.9
10.4
20.7
16.5
12.6
7.7
2.0
27.0
43.2
92.1
67.4
39.8
27.3
29.5
34.8
63.5
20.3
2006 March
68.7
10.3
20.8
16.0
12.0
7.6
1.9
26.9
43.1
93.1
68.1
39.4
26.5
28.9
34.4
63.1
20.9
June
71.4
10.5
21.2
16.9
12.8
7.8
2.1
27.0
43.0
92.6
68.0
39.4
26.9
28.8
35.0
63.7
20.6
Sept
76.8
11.1
23.1
18.6
13.4
8.4
2.2
27.0
43.9
92.8
69.0
40.7
27.3
29.2
36.9
64.1
20.5
Dec
74.5
10.3
22.6
17.8
13.2
8.4
2.2
27.1
44.1
93.3
69.2
40.9
27.8
29.8
35.7
63.6
21.0
54.5
49.0
41.8
{
2007 March
1
2
3
p
72.1P
10.1P
21.6P
17.6P
12.6P
8.2P
2.2P
27.1P
44.2P
93.4P
Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address(es) of parents.
provisional
National Statistics
58
69.9P
41.4P
27.6P
29.8P
35.4P
64.1P
33.8
25.6
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.2
20.8
19.9
19.2
18.4
17.8
17.4
16.8
16.3
15.6
18.3
17.7
17.5
17.8
18.1
17.4
18.0
17.4
17.4
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.5
16.0
16.2
16.0
15.6
15.4
15.4
20.5P 15.4P
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130
Table 3.3
Wi n t e r 2007
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and mean age
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Live births within marriage
Mean Age of mother at birth
age2
(years)
All
Under
20–24
25–29
30–34
ages
20
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age2
(years)
Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.9
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
380.0
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
61.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.2
157.9
148.8
139.4
130.7
120.7
144.2
145.9
145.3
144.6
140.3
51.1
53.3
56.7
59.3
60.5
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.6
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
33.2
33.4
33.6
33.9
34.1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
365.8
356.5
354.1
364.2
370.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.3
4.1
40.3
40.7
40.7
40.9
41.3
111.6
103.1
97.6
98.7
98.5
136.2
133.7
134.1
138.0
139.8
62.7
63.2
65.4
69.6
72.6
10.4
11.1
11.8
12.7
13.7
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.2
31.2
25.8
23.9
22.8
22.6
21.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
3.7
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
10.4
9.5
8.9
8.4
7.7
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.8
8.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
34.3
34.5
34.7
35.0
35.1
2005
2006
369.3
378.2
3.7
3.2
40.0
40.1
100.0
103.3
137.4
138.0
73.8
78.3
14.5
15.3
31.3
31.4
20.0
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
2.1
1.9
6.8
6.1
8.1
7.7
2.7
2.7
35.3
35.4
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
90.8
94.8
98.1
94.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
9.8
10.0
10.4
10.0
24.6
26.0
27.0
25.7
33.3
34.8
35.6
34.3
18.7
19.3
20.5
19.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
4.0
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
35.3
35.4
35.4
35.5
2007 MarchP
91.9
0.7
9.3
24.9
33.0
19.2
4.1
31.5
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.9
1.2
0.4
35.5
First live births
Second live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.5
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.5
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.4
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.0
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.1
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.8
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
146.5
143.9
145.2
151.0
154.5
156.0
161.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
21.6
22.2
22.4
22.2
22.6
22.1
22.7
52.7
48.8
47.1
48.4
48.9
50.0
51.9
49.4
49.7
51.0
54.2
55.5
55.7
56.4
16.6
16.8
18.1
19.6
20.7
21.4
23.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.8
4.0
29.6
29.6
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.1
30.2
134.7
132.2
130.3
132.9
133.7
132.0
134.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
13.7
13.7
13.5
13.9
13.8
13.2
12.8
38.4
35.7
33.0
32.5
31.9
32.1
32.8
54.8
53.8
53.7
54.3
54.5
52.8
52.8
23.8
24.8
25.6
27.1
28.3
28.6
30.5
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.5
31.6
31.7
31.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
37.8
39.5
42.2
41.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
5.4
5.5
5.9
5.9
12.1
12.8
13.8
13.2
13.4
13.8
14.7
14.5
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
30.2
30.2
30.2
30.3
32.5
35.0
34.3
32.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
7.9
8.5
8.4
7.9
12.8
13.9
13.4
12.8
7.3
7.8
8.0
7.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
31.7
31.8
31.8
31.8
2007 MarchP
39.7
0.6
5.3
12.7
13.8
6.1
1.1
30.4
31.7
0.1
2.8
7.8
12.3
7.3
1.3
31.9
Third live births
Fourth and higher order live births3
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
76.1
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
9.4
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
26.8
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
27.5
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
10.5
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
30.4
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
39.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
11.1
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
14.8
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
8.9
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
31.6
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.4
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
54.9
52.1
50.3
52.0
52.5
52.2
53.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.7
14.1
12.8
11.8
12.1
12.1
12.3
12.8
21.1
19.8
19.0
19.2
19.3
18.7
18.5
13.5
13.2
13.1
14.1
14.3
14.5
15.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.5
32.5
32.6
29.7
28.3
28.2
28.4
29.3
29.2
29.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
6.4
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.9
10.9
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.2
10.3
8.7
8.4
8.5
8.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.1
13.2
13.9
12.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.7
7.4
7.2
7.6
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
32.8
33.0
33.1
33.1
33.2
33.3
33.2
33.3
33.2
33.2
33.3
2007 MarchP
12.6
0.0
0.9
3.0
4.4
3.5
0.8
32.6
7.2
0.0
0.2
1.4
2.5
2.3
0.8
33.3
1 Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
2 The mean ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age, marital status or parity.
3 Mean age at birth refers to fourth live births only.
p Provisional.
59
National Statistics
Population Trends 130
Table 4.1
Win t e r 2 0 07
Conceptions: age of woman at conception
England and Wales (residents)
Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 16
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
(a) numbers (thousands)
1991
1996
853.7
816.9
7.5
8.9
40.1
43.5
101.6
94.9
233.3
179.8
281.5
252.6
167.5
200.0
57.6
75.5
12.1
14.1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
774.0
767.0
763.7
787.0
806.8
826.8
841.8
7.9
8.1
7.9
7.9
8.0
7.6
7.9
42.0
41.3
41.0
42.0
42.2
42.2
42.3
98.8
97.7
96.0
97.1
98.6
101.3
102.3
157.6
159.0
161.6
167.8
175.3
181.3
185.5
218.5
209.3
199.3
199.4
199.8
205.1
211.3
197.1
195.3
196.7
204.3
209.0
209.6
209.2
86.0
88.7
92.2
98.9
103.1
106.8
110.0
16.0
17.0
17.8
19.6
20.9
22.8
23.6
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
198.2
198.5
200.1
210.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
10.5
10.8
10.2
10.7
24.5
24.7
23.7
25.7
42.9
43.2
43.1
46.1
49.4
49.1
49.3
52.0
51.2
51.1
52.8
54.0
25.2
25.2
26.1
26.7
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.6
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
207.9
200.1
203.6
215.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
10.9
10.6
10.0
10.8
26.2
25.0
24.0
26.1
45.9
43.7
44.1
47.7
51.1
49.3
50.7
54.0
52.6
50.4
52.7
54.0
26.6
25.9
26.6
27.6
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.8
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
204.6
204.7
210.9
221.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
10.4
10.5
10.4
11.0
25.1
25.1
25.3
26.8
45.4
45.2
45.6
49.3
50.8
51.0
53.3
56.2
51.0
50.7
53.1
54.3
26.6
26.9
27.5
29.1
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
2006 March1,P
June1,P
213.6
212.3
1.8
2.0
10.1
10.4
25.1
25.3
46.7
45.9
53.3
52.4
51.7
50.1
27.9
27.6
6.1
6.3
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group)2
1991
1996
77.7
76.2
8.9
9.5
44.6
46.3
64.1
63.2
120.2
110.1
135.1
127.6
90.1
96.3
34.4
40.7
6.6
8.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
71.9
70.9
70.3
72.2
73.7
75.2
76.0
8.3
8.3
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.5
7.8
45.1
43.9
42.7
42.9
42.4
41.8
41.4
63.1
62.5
60.8
60.6
60.0
60.3
60.1
103.9
103.2
102.5
104.4
107.2
109.0
108.7
118.0
115.7
114.2
119.0
122.0
125.1
125.8
95.3
95.3
96.7
101.7
106.0
109.6
112.0
42.9
43.2
44.3
47.0
49.1
51.0
53.2
9.1
9.4
9.6
10.3
10.7
11.4
11.5
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
73.6
72.8
72.5
76.0
7.8
8.3
7.9
7.8
42.9
43.5
40.6
42.6
61.1
60.5
57.0
61.5
107.2
106.2
104.3
111.0
121.3
120.0
119.4
126.9
104.6
103.6
106.6
109.8
48.6
48.0
49.3
50.5
10.4
10.8
10.5
11.2
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
76.2
73.2
73.6
77.7
7.8
7.7
7.1
7.4
43.5
42.2
39.2
42.4
63.2
60.1
56.8
61.5
111.5
105.9
105.0
112.9
125.4
121.1
122.6
129.9
109.3
105.5
109.9
113.2
51.1
49.7
50.6
52.8
11.4
11.5
11.1
11.4
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
75.1
74.2
75.5
79.3
7.6
8.0
7.8
7.9
41.5
41.1
40.5
42.8
60.0
59.1
59.0
62.4
108.9
106.7
105.7
113.6
123.8
122.1
125.6
131.7
109.8
108.5
113.3
116.7
51.8
52.0
52.8
55.9
11.4
11.4
11.7
11.5
2006 March1,P
June1,P
78.2
76.6
7.1
8.1
40.0
40.9
59.5
59.3
109.3
105.7
126.9
122.9
114.5
110.6
55.0
53.9
12.0
12.2
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
1991
1996
19.4
20.8
51.1
49.2
39.9
40.0
34.5
36.2
22.2
25.7
13.4
15.6
13.7
14.1
22.0
21.2
41.6
37.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
22.6
22.7
23.2
22.5
22.5
22.4
22.2
52.6
54.0
55.8
55.6
57.4
57.2
57.1
43.0
44.2
45.7
45.3
45.7
45.6
46.3
38.6
39.3
40.4
39.9
40.2
40.1
40.3
28.5
29.2
29.7
28.8
29.0
28.9
28.6
17.5
17.7
18.4
17.9
17.9
18.2
18.0
14.7
14.5
14.6
13.9
13.6
13.2
13.2
21.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
18.9
18.3
17.7
37.0
35.4
34.6
34.6
34.7
33.0
32.8
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.8
23.1
21.6
22.5
58.9
58.3
56.9
55.7
46.1
46.2
45.3
45.0
40.2
40.9
39.5
40.3
29.5
29.3
28.0
29.0
17.9
18.4
17.1
18.1
13.8
14.2
13.0
13.5
19.7
19.2
18.0
18.5
34.5
36.1
33.8
34.5
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.7
23.0
21.9
22.0
58.2
57.2
56.8
56.3
45.7
46.3
45.8
44.5
40.2
40.8
40.0
39.3
29.4
29.2
28.4
28.6
18.5
18.6
17.9
17.8
13.4
13.7
12.8
13.0
18.2
19.2
17.8
18.2
32.9
33.5
33.0
32.5
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.5
22.7
21.4
22.2
57.5
57.0
56.2
57.5
47.3
45.8
45.3
46.9
41.1
40.3
39.0
40.6
29.2
28.9
27.5
28.7
18.1
18.6
17.5
17.8
13.1
13.9
12.6
13.1
18.0
17.8
17.2
17.7
32.6
33.8
32.1
32.7
2006 March1,P
June1,P
22.4
23.2
59.2
59.7
48.0
49.5
41.9
43.2
29.5
30.3
18.6
19.3
13.1
14.3
17.6
18.2
31.4
32.3
Note: Conception figures are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
For a quarterly analysis of conceptions to women under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk
1 Figures for conceptions by age for the March and June quarters for 2006 exclude maternities where the mother's age was not recorded.
2 Conception rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of
international migration.
p provisional
National Statistics
60
Wi n t e r 2007
Population Trends 130
Table 5.1
Period expectation of life at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom1
Year
Years
Males
At birth
5
20
30
At age
Year
50
60
70
80
Females
At At age
birth
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.8
52.3
53.2
54.2
55.1
42.7
43.6
44.7
45.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.9
16.3
16.8
17.7
18.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
72.7
73.4
74.3
74.9
57.9
58.6
59.5
60.1
48.2
48.8
49.7
50.3
29.2
29.8
30.6
31.2
20.8
21.2
21.9
22.3
13.3
13.8
14.3
14.5
7.5
7.8
8.2
8.3
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
75.3
75.6
75.9
76.2
76.5
76.9
70.9
71.2
71.4
71.7
72.0
72.4
56.1
56.4
56.6
56.9
57.3
57.6
46.6
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.7
48.0
28.0
28.2
28.5
28.7
29.0
29.4
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.5
20.8
12.3
12.5
12.6
12.8
13.1
13.4
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
80.1
80.4
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.3
75.6
75.8
75.9
76.1
76.4
76.7
60.8
61.0
61.1
61.3
61.5
61.9
51.0
51.2
51.3
51.5
51.7
52.0
31.9
32.1
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.9
23.0
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.5
15.8
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.8
9.0
England and Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.0
72.1
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.0
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.3
42.9
43.8
44.8
45.8
24.3
25.0
26.1
27.1
16.4
16.9
17.8
18.6
10.1
10.5
11.2
11.6
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.1
58.8
59.7
60.2
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
75.6
75.9
76.1
76.4
76.8
77.2
71.1
71.4
71.6
71.9
72.3
72.7
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.2
57.5
57.9
46.8
47.1
47.3
47.6
47.9
48.3
28.1
28.4
28.6
28.9
29.2
29.6
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.6
21.0
12.3
12.5
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.5
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
80.3
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
75.8
76.0
76.1
76.3
76.6
76.9
60.9
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.7
62.0
51.1
51.3
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.2
32.0
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.7
33.1
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.1
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.6
15.9
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.1
England
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.1
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.4
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.8
24.3
25.1
26.2
27.1
16.4
17.0
17.8
18.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.7
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.2
58.8
59.7
60.3
48.4
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
75.6
75.9
76.1
76.5
76.8
77.2
71.2
71.4
71.7
72.0
72.3
72.7
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.2
57.6
57.9
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.6
48.0
48.3
28.2
28.5
28.7
28.9
29.2
29.6
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.4
20.7
21.0
12.4
12.6
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.5
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
803
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
75.8
76.0
76.1
76.4
76.6
76.9
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.7
62.1
51.2
51.4
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.3
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.8
33.1
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.1
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.6
15.9
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.1
Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.8
66.5
67.5
68.8
69.4
51.9
52.8
54.1
54.7
42.2
43.2
44.6
45.3
23.6
24.6
25.8
26.6
15.8
16.6
17.6
18.2
9.7
10.3
11.0
11.3
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.4
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
72.3
73.3
74.3
74.6
57.5
58.5
59.5
59.7
47.7
48.7
49.7
49.9
28.9
29.7
30.6
30.9
20.5
21.1
21.8
22.1
13.1
13.7
14.3
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.3
8.3
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
74.8
75.3
75.5
75.8
76.1
76.6
70.4
70.8
70.9
71.2
71.6
72.0
55.7
56.0
56.2
56.5
56.8
57.3
46.2
46.6
46.8
47.0
47.3
47.7
27.6
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
29.2
19.1
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.6
12.0
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.2
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.6
2000
20012
20022
20032
20042
20052
79.7
80.0
80.1
80.3
80.6
80.9
75.2
75.4
75.5
75.7
76.0
76.3
60.4
60.6
60.7
60.9
61.1
61.5
50.6
50.8
50.9
51.1
51.3
51.6
31.5
31.7
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.6
22.6
22.8
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.7
14.7
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.5
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.7
8.9
Scotland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
65.2
66.0
67.1
67.8
50.6
51.4
52.5
53.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
43.7
22.9
23.5
24.6
25.3
15.4
15.8
16.6
17.3
9.6
9.9
10.4
10.9
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.3
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
71.2
71.9
72.7
73.3
56.4
57.1
57.9
58.5
46.7
47.3
48.1
48.8
27.9
28.4
29.2
29.8
19.7
20.1
20.7
21.2
12.7
13.0
13.5
13.8
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
73.1
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6
68.6
68.8
69.0
69.3
69.7
70.1
53.9
54.2
54.3
54.6
55.0
55.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
45.2
45.6
45.9
26.3
26.6
26.7
27.0
27.3
27.7
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.1
19.4
11.5
11.7
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.5
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
78.6
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6
74.0
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.7
75.0
59.2
59.4
59.5
59.7
59.9
60.2
49.4
49.6
49.7
49.9
50.1
50.4
30.5
30.7
30.8
30.9
31.1
31.4
21.8
22.0
22.1
22.2
22.4
22.7
14.1
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.9
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
Northern Ireland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
65.4
66.8
68.2
69.4
50.9
52.2
53.6
54.7
41.5
42.7
44.1
45.3
23.2
24.2
25.5
26.6
15.6
16.4
17.3
18.2
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.4
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
71.6
72.9
74.0
74.7
56.8
58.1
59.2
59.9
47.1
48.3
49.4
50.0
28.3
29.3
30.3
30.9
20.0
20.8
21.6
22.1
12.8
13.4
14.2
14.4
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
74.8
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
76.1
70.4
70.7
71.1
71.4
71.6
71.6
55.7
56.1
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.0
46.2
46.6
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.5
27.6
27.9
28.2
28.4
28.7
28.9
19.1
19.4
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.4
11.9
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
79.8
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
81.0
75.2
75.6
75.9
76.0
76.3
76.4
60.4
60.7
61.0
61.1
61.4
61.6
50.6
50.9
51.2
51.3
51.6
51.8
31.5
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.5
32.7
22.6
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.5
23.7
14.6
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.6
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 2001 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period.
1 All countries: figures for all years based on registered deaths
2 Figures for 2001 to 2005 for the United Kingdom, England and Wales, England and for Wales are based on revised population estimates for 2002–2005 and death registrations.
p provisional
61
National Statistics
Population Trends 130
Table 6.1
Win t e r 2 0 07
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Year and quarter
All ages
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Age group
Under 11
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
268.7
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.27
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.44
0.68
0.45
0.33
0.34
0.24
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.29
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.93
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.41
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
4.06
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.84
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.6
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
30.1
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.0
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
90.7
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
47.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
264.3
255.5
252.4
253.1
253.9
244.1
243.3
240.9
2.08
1.89
1.81
1.81
1.81
1.79
1.87
1.86
0.41
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.22
0.22
0.19
0.20
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.90
0.87
0.88
0.83
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.84
1.27
1.22
1.27
1.24
1.23
1.15
1.11
1.21
3.85
3.76
3.63
3.47
3.26
3.10
2.89
3.13
5.93
6.05
6.07
6.20
6.32
6.19
6.14
6.32
13.6
13.4
13.3
12.9
12.7
12.2
12.1
12.3
28.7
27.9
27.5
27.7
28.2
27.0
27.3
27.6
64.3
60.6
57.5
56.3
55.1
52.5
51.0
48.9
90.4
87.1
87.0
88.3
89.6
87.3
84.8
81.9
52.3
51.9
52.7
53.6
54.0
51.3
54.7
56.2
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
291.5
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.69
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.32
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.20
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.51
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.85
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.66
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
8.9
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
18.2
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
50.2
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
96.7
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
108.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
291.8
280.1
277.9
280.4
284.4
268.4
269.1
261.7
1.55
1.49
1.43
1.31
1.50
1.43
1.37
1.51
0.30
0.25
0.27
0.24
0.28
0.23
0.22
0.27
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.46
0.46
0.48
0.44
1.67
1.69
1.59
1.61
1.57
1.49
1.48
1.38
3.79
3.87
3.77
3.77
3.86
3.80
3.81
3.80
9.0
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.1
8.2
8.1
18.0
17.6
17.6
17.7
18.0
17.6
17.8
17.9
45.1
42.2
40.5
39.6
39.0
36.9
36.0
34.5
93.9
89.3
88.8
90.0
92.7
88.3
86.4
81.2
117.2
113.4
113.9
116.3
117.9
109.4
113.1
111.9
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
10.7
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
6.8
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.32
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.18
0.88
0.82
0.72
0.72
0.60
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.85
0.92
0.89
0.88
0.94
1.01
2.09
1.83
1.68
1.76
1.67
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.56
4.06
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.9
11.9
50.3
45.6
42.8
38.1
34.5
116.4
105.2
101.2
93.1
85.0
243.2
226.5
215.4
205.6
198.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062,P
10.4
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.4
9.3
9.1
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.4
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.23
0.24
0.23
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.49
0.46
0.44
0.48
0.46
0.83
0.79
0.80
0.77
0.75
0.67
0.69
0.67
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.89
0.89
1.60
1.59
1.56
1.57
1.58
1.53
1.56
1.55
3.99
3.92
3.89
3.86
3.81
3.67
3.61
3.58
10.9
10.4
10.0
9.7
9.6
9.0
8.9
8.8
31.6
29.7
28.0
27.2
26.4
25.0
24.1
23.2
79.9
75.9
74.0
73.5
72.9
69.9
67.4
64.7
194.4
187.5
186.4
187.7
191.0
176.0
172.1
163.4
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.2
9.1
8.7
9.5
5.9
5.2
5.3
5.5
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.11
0.46
0.39
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.74
0.71
0.58
0.92
0.94
0.86
0.78
1.59
1.58
1.47
1.49
3.81
3.72
3.58
3.58
9.4
8.8
8.5
9.2
26.6
24.5
23.2
25.4
76.9
66.9
64.5
70.8
199.3
164.0
154.8
183.0
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
9.1
8.3
9.3
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.21
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.17
0.18
0.12
0.11
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.39
0.71
0.59
0.63
0.62
0.88
0.83
0.85
0.73
1.56
1.57
1.44
1.46
3.83
3.53
3.46
3.54
9.7
8.8
8.3
8.8
26.6
23.4
22.2
24.0
77.3
65.8
59.6
66.9
201.2
162.9
146.0
176.9
20062 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
10.2
9.0
8.4
8.9
5.3
5.5
5.4
5.6
0.29
0.24
0.14
0.26
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.46
0.45
0.51
0.43
0.72
0.69
0.58
0.69
0.95
0.89
0.83
0.90
1.59
1.57
1.49
1.54
3.82
3.60
3.43
3.50
9.5
8.8
8.3
8.7
25.4
23.3
21.5
22.5
73.7
63.7
58.7
62.7
189.6
158.5
143.8
162.1
20073 MarchP
9.9
5.3
0.29
0.12
0.14
0.48
0.65
0.91
1.55
3.66
9.2
24.3
70.0
185.3
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.2
11.0
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.3
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.25
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.12
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.44
0.46
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.05
1.04
4.30
3.80
3.24
2.87
2.63
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.2
7.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
21.8
20.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.7
55.8
196.6
178.2
169.4
161.6
158.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062,P
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.6
9.9
9.9
9.6
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.6
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.20
0.19
0.22
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.43
0.44
0.42
0.44
0.43
0.42
0.40
0.39
1.01
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.95
0.93
0.90
0.92
2.61
2.62
2.57
2.54
2.51
2.39
2.38
2.33
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.6
19.2
18.1
17.4
17.0
16.7
15.8
15.4
14.8
53.4
50.8
50.1
50.4
51.3
48.6
48.1
45.7
162.6
155.2
155.0
159.4
165.6
154.3
152.7
143.8
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
11.1
9.4
9.1
10.1
5.3
4.1
4.3
4.6
0.23
0.17
0.20
0.19
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.27
0.26
0.20
0.17
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.27
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.40
0.95
0.94
0.88
0.93
2.52
2.41
2.27
2.36
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.8
17.2
14.9
14.8
16.0
54.3
46.4
44.5
49.4
178.4
143.8
137.0
157.9
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
11.6
9.5
8.7
9.8
4.8
4.7
3.9
4.2
0.22
0.20
0.14
0.19
0.09
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.20
0.25
0.20
0.22
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.24
0.46
0.37
0.36
0.41
0.95
0.97
0.86
0.84
2.57
2.31
2.32
2.31
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.6
17.3
15.0
13.8
15.3
57.0
46.6
42.0
46.8
184.7
144.2
129.7
152.7
20062 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
11.0
9.4
8.6
9.2
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.5
0.25
0.22
0.19
0.24
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.14
0.08
0.12
0.24
0.19
0.23
0.23
0.30
0.24
0.22
0.25
0.39
0.42
0.36
0.41
1.01
0.88
0.91
0.89
2.42
2.35
2.27
2.27
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.5
16.4
14.7
13.7
14.3
52.5
45.4
41.1
43.7
172.0
140.9
124.3
138.7
20073 MarchP
10.9
4.5
0.24
0.07
0.12
0.27
0.27
0.38
0.97
2.30
5.9
16.3
51.6
167.7
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. Provisional figures for 2006 and 2007
relate to registrations.
Death rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Rates per 1,000 live births.
2 Death rates for 2006 have been calculated using the mid 2006 population estimates published on 22 August 2007.
3 Death rates for 2007 are based on the 2006-based population projections for 2007.
National Statistics
62
Population Trends 130
Table 6.2
Wi n t e r 2007
Deaths: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Year and
quarter
North East
Rates
North
West
Yorkshire and
The Humber
East Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11.7
11.6
11.9
11.6
10.8
11.7
11.6
11.7
11.5
10.7
11.2
11.1
11.2
10.9
10.3
10.7
10.5
10.8
10.7
10.0
10.7
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.9
9.4
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.2
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.5
9.8
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.3
2001
2002
2003
2004
20051,P
2006
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.5
11.0
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.7
10.2
10.3
10.5
9.9
9.9
9.7
9.9
10.0
9.9
9.5
9.4
9.4
7.9
7.8
7.9
7.3
7.1
6.8
9.9
10.0
9.9
9.4
9.4
9.2
11.0
11.1
11.2
10.4
10.4
10.2
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
12.1
10.6
9.5
10.7
12.0
10.0
9.2
10.3
11.4
9.6
8.8
9.9
11.1
9.5
8.6
9.9
11.5
9.5
8.8
9.8
10.9
9.2
8.4
9.5
8.2
6.8
6.3
6.9
10.9
9.1
8.3
9.4
12.1
10.2
9.3
10.4
P
20061 March
JunePP
Sept
DecP
11.5
10.6
9.4
10.6
11.4
10.2
9.3
9.9
10.8
9.7
8.9
9.7
10.9
9.6
8.8
9.6
11.1
9.6
8.8
9.4
10.8
9.3
8.3
9.1
7.8
6.7
6.2
6.5
10.9
9.0
8.2
8.9
11.7
10.0
9.2
10.0
20071 MarchP
11.9
11.7
11.0
10.7
11.0
10.3
7.4
10.1
11.6
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
6.2
5.8
5.0
5.6
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.3
7.3
6.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
5.4
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
6.8
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
4.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.4
4.8
4.4
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
5.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.9
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
6.1
5.7
5.8
6.0
5.7
4.9
5.6
5.9
4.9
4.8
5.4
6.4
6.6
7.4
6.3
6.6
6.4
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.1
6.1
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.0
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.5
6.1
5.4
4.8
6.1
6.0
7.0
5.4
5.6
7.3
5.1
3.4
3.8
7.1
6.4
7.5
5.6
4.8
4.2
3.7
3.3
5.4
5.7
4.7
5.0
3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
5.3
4.4
3.6
4.9
P
2006 March
JunePP
SeptP
Dec
5.4
6.4
5.4
4.5
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.7
5.4
6.1
4.8
6.6
5.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
6.6
7.0
6.7
5.3
3.8
4.3
3.6
4.6
5.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.3
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
3.6
4.7
2007 MarchP
5.2
5.1
4.5
5.3
6.4
4.3
4.5
3.9
4.5
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
5.0
4.2
3.7
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.0
4.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
2006
3.5
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.1
4.7
4.9
4.6
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.7
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2
2.9
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.8
3.9
3.5
3.1
4.6
4.3
4.3
3.9
3.5
5.1
3.7
2.8
2.4
4.9
4.9
5.7
4.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
1.8
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.1
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.2
2.7
3.5
P
2006 March
JunePP
SeptP
Dec
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.3
4.7
4.2
4.6
3.9
5.1
3.9
5.4
4.0 3.2
2.7
3.2
2.5
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.5
3.2
2.4
2.6
3.6
2007 MarchP
4.0
3.7
5.2
3.4
4.8
2.9
3.1
2.6
3.1
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.3
8.3
9.2
8.3
9.6
8.7
7.7
8.0
7.8
7.8
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
9.6
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.1
9.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
6.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
2006
7.8
8.1
7.8
7.9
7.8
8.0
8.7
8.5
9.0
8.4
8.2
8.3
7.5
9.0
9.1
9.4
9.4
8.5
7.9
9.1
8.5
10.0
9.5
10.2
8.1
9.6
7.6
9.9
8.4 9.2
7.1
7.5
7.3
7.6
6.4
6.7
8.9
9.3
9.6
9.3
8.5
8.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
6.6
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
6.6
9.2
7.1
8.4
8.4
8.2
7.4
8.9
9.7
10.4
8.6
9.0
9.3
7.6
7.2
6.5
9.0
10.9
11.0
8.8
6.9
7.4
6.1
5.3
8.4
8.8
8.9
7.9
6.7
6.5
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.5
5.7
7.1
P
2006 March
JunePP
SeptP
Dec
8.2
8.7
7.5
7.8
9.0
8.3
8.0
7.8
7.6
9.2
8.4
8.7
8.7
9.6
9.1
10.1
8.4
9.6
7.6 7.4
7.4
7.0
6.6
6.0
9.1
8.7
8.7
8.9
7.6
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.8
6.2
7.0
2007 MarchP
7.3
8.1
7.5
6.4 8.8
7.4
7.9
6.4
6.6
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of provisional figures for 2006 and 2007 which relate to registrations.
Death rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Total deaths rates for 2006 and 2007 have been calculated using the mid-2006 population estimates published on 22 August 2007.
p provisional.
63
National Statistics
Win t e r 2 0 07
Population Trends 130
Table 7.1
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Year and quarter
Persons
Males
0–14
Females
Persons
Males
15–24
Females
Persons
Males
25–44
Females
Persons
Males
45 and over
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
200
191
153
250
328
318
103
100
83
120
157
157
97
91
71
130
171
161
33
32
30
45
53
33
17
16
16
22
23
14
17
17
14
23
30
19
65
64
48
79
106
114
28
32
24
34
47
49
37
32
24
45
59
65
81
77
60
101
139
142
48
43
34
49
73
77
33
34
26
51
66
65
21
18
15
25
31
29
10
9
9
16
14
17
11
9
7
10
17
12
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
326
390
454
483
480
169
207
250
275
260
157
184
204
209
219
43
37
42
36
46
22
18
24
18
25
21
19
18
18
21
126
134
158
161
158
57
65
79
82
77
68
69
80
79
81
131
194
224
244
239
76
109
130
149
135
55
84
94
95
103
27
26
30
43
37
15
15
18
26
22
12
11
13
17
14
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
284
261
297
312
229
252
285
253
38
41
39
26
20
23
25
14
17
18
14
12
185
211
222
228
100
99
105
117
85
112
118
111
256
219
274
272
148
118
147
156
108
101
127
116
35
42
47
39
16
21
20
25
19
21
26
14
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
116
181
117
167
18
21
13
12
5
8
86
137
38
67
48
70
112
162
56
90
55
72
18
29
9
12
9
17
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
326
127
185
112
141
13
13
7
6
6
6
83
145
38
80
45
66
124
148
71
85
53
63
19
20
11
14
8
6
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
240
210
233
213
285
264
124
118
133
107
146
134
116
93
100
106
139
130
51
40
49
37
44
38
26
20
25
17
19
16
24
21
24
20
25
22
64
52
51
47
76
63
28
26
29
19
39
24
36
25
22
28
37
39
99
97
108
98
131
140
57
59
64
55
69
79
42
38
44
43
62
60
27
21
25
32
33
23
12
12
14
17
18
15
15
9
11
15
15
9
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
279
251
291
321
308
153
131
158
178
173
126
121
133
142
135
29
24
27
26
25
15
15
19
11
14
13
10
8
15
11
86
70
87
84
84
45
31
42
45
41
41
39
45
39
43
138
130
143
175
155
77
71
79
102
89
61
59
64
73
65
27
27
34
36
45
16
14
18
20
29
11
13
16
16
16
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
195
193
182
219
165
169
177
161
25
35
29
29
15
19
13
16
10
16
16
14
92
85
82
86
44
37
38
48
48
47
44
38
186
188
181
201
107
105
101
120
80
82
80
80
56
55
67
63
28
31
30
35
28
24
36
28
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
75
107
78
99
15
14
5
8
10
6
33
49
14
24
20
25
74
107
43
58
31
49
31
36
14
16
17
20
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
84
135
61
99
11
19
6
10
5
9
27
60
14
35
13
25
82
118
52
68
30
50
26
37
12
23
14
15
2
3
5
1
4
2
– 4
–
– 4
– 6
+ 2
+ 3
Balance
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 –
–
–
+
+
+
40
19
79
37
43
54
–
–
–
+
+
+
22
18
50
13
12
23
–
–
–
+
+
+
19
1
29
24
32
31
–
–
–
+
+
–
17
8
19
8
8
5
– 10
– 4
– 9
+ 5
+ 3
– 2
–
–
–
+
+
–
8
4
10
3
5
3
+
+
–
+
+
+
1
12
2
32
30
51
–
+ 6
– 5
+ 15
+ 9
+ 25
+
+
+
+
+
+
1
7
2
18
22
26
–
–
–
+
+
+
18
20
48
3
7
2
– 10
– 16
– 31
– 5
+ 4
– 2
– 9
– 4
– 18
+ 8
+ 4
+ 5
– 6
– 3
– 10
– 7
– 2
+ 5
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
+ 47
+ 139
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
+
+
+
+
+
16
76
92
96
88
+
+
+
+
+
31
63
71
66
84
+
+
+
+
+
14
13
15
10
21
+ 6
+ 3
+ 5
+ 7
+ 11
+
+
+
+
+
8
10
10
3
10
+
+
+
+
+
40
64
71
77
74
+ 12
+ 34
+ 37
+ 37
+ 36
+
+
+
+
+
28
30
34
40
38
–
+
+
+
+
7
64
81
69
84
– 1
+ 38
+ 51
+ 47
+ 46
– 6
+ 25
+ 30
+ 23
+ 38
–
–
+
–
–
1
4
7
8
2002
2003
2004
2005
+ 153
+ 151
+ 223
+ 185
+ 89
+ 68
+ 115
+ 93
+ 64
+ 83
+ 108
+ 93
+
+
+
–
13
7
10
4
+ 5
+ 4
+ 12
– 2
+
+
–
–
8
2
2
1
+ 93
+ 126
+ 140
+ 142
+ 56
+ 61
+ 67
+ 69
+
+
+
+
37
65
73
72
+
+
+
+
69
31
93
72
+ 41
+ 12
+ 46
+ 36
+ 28
+ 19
+ 47
+ 36
–
–
–
–
22
13
20
24
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+ 142
+ 41
+ 74
+ 39
+ 68
+ 3
+ 7
+ 8
+ 4
– 5
+ 3
+ 53
+ 88
+ 24
+ 42
+ 28
+ 45
+ 38
+ 55
+ 13
+ 32
+ 24
+ 23
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
+ 43
+ 50
+ 51
+ 42
+ 3
– 6
+ 1
– 4
+ 1
– 3
+ 56
+ 86
+ 24
+ 45
+ 32
+ 41
+ 41
+ 30
+ 18
+ 17
+ 23
+ 13
–
–
–
–
–
+
– 1
–
– 1
+ 6
– 6
+
–
–
+
–
1
2
3
1
2
–
–
–
–
13
10
10
10
– 9
– 3
– 10
– 14
– 13
– 7
– 5
– 5
– 8
– 2
– 7
– 17
– 1
– 9
– 6
– 8
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
National Statistics
64
Wi n t e r 2007
Population Trends 130
Table 7.2
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Year and quarter
Commonwealth countries
Other foreign countries
All
countries
European
Union1
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka2
Pakistan2
Caribbean
Other3
USA
Middle
East4
Other4,5
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
200
191
153
250
328
318
21
33
25
72
95
98
52
40
20
30
44
37
8
9
3
18
8
11
24
15
18
16
17
15
:
12
9
10
16
11
5
4
3
5
4
4
36
32
19
25
42
33
22
16
17
26
24
32
:
7
11
15
11
13
31
23
27
34
69
63
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
326
390
454
483
480
100
109
99
96
86
40
64
63
63
77
13
20
29
23
22
21
17
25
34
32
9
10
12
16
18
4
6
6
6
3
32
31
37
48
47
23
37
29
24
24
15
13
15
30
30
67
84
138
144
140
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
89
101
139
180
61
68
63
64
27
28
37
29
36
45
60
64
10
13
29
22
5
4
6
2
52
49
60
42
28
28
28
25
32
27
26
19
172
150
135
117
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
53
85
34
29
19
18
26
34
14
15
3
3
23
37
8
19
9
18
45
90
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
326
75
105
33
31
19
10
28
36
7
14
1
1
19
23
9
17
7
12
42
76
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
240
210
232
213
285
264
31
39
33
62
95
94
99
63
78
50
61
58
21
21
23
2
7
5
8
4
2
4
6
5
:
2
1
2
4
1
8
3
3
2
2
1
23
17
20
13
21
23
17
21
25
34
35
26
:
6
23
16
14
8
34
33
23
28
40
42
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
279
251
291
321
308
92
85
103
103
94
57
54
73
79
80
8
6
7
7
8
6
5
4
5
8
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
23
14
14
15
13
28
27
33
33
28
13
9
10
15
9
46
48
44
58
63
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
125
122
121
134
84
90
95
95
10
14
10
14
7
7
6
10
4
4
4
7
2
1
3
3
16
15
20
12
37
27
27
27
12
7
12
12
62
75
61
65
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
58
63
40
55
3
6
3
4
2
1
1
3
6
13
13
14
5
7
21
40
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
53
81
42
54
6
8
4
6
3
5
1
2
5
7
7
20
4
8
20
45
Balance
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 –
–
–
+
+
+
40
19
79
37
43
54
– 10
– 6
– 8
+ 9
–
+ 5
–
–
–
–
–
–
46
23
58
21
18
21
–
–
–
+
+
+
13
12
20
16
1
6
+
+
+
+
+
+
16
12
15
12
11
10
+
+
+
+
+
:
10
8
8
12
10
– 3
–
+ 1
+ 3
+ 2
+ 3
+
+
–
+
+
+
14
15
2
12
20
10
+ 6
– 4
– 8
– 8
– 11
+ 6
:
+ 1
– 12
–
– 4
+ 5
–
–
+
+
+
+
3
10
5
6
29
21
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
+ 47
+ 139
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
+ 9
+ 24
– 4
– 8
– 7
–
+
–
–
–
17
10
10
15
2
+
+
+
+
+
5
14
22
15
13
+
+
+
+
+
15
12
22
29
24
+
+
+
+
+
6
8
11
13
14
+
+
+
+
+
1
4
3
4
1
+
+
+
+
+
9
17
23
33
34
– 5
+ 10
– 4
– 9
– 4
+
+
+
+
+
2
4
5
15
20
+
+
+
+
+
21
36
94
86
77
2002
2003
2004
2005
+ 153
+ 151
+ 223
+ 185
– 36
– 21
+ 17
+ 46
–
–
–
–
23
22
32
31
+
+
+
+
17
14
27
15
+
+
+
+
29
38
54
54
+
+
+
+
7
9
25
14
+
+
+
–
3
3
2
1
+
+
+
+
36
34
40
30
– 10
+ 1
–
– 1
+
+
+
+
20
20
14
7
+ 110
+ 75
+ 74
+ 53
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+ 142
– 5
+ 22
– 7
– 26
+ 16
+ 12
+ 23
+ 30
+ 12
+ 14
+ 2
+ 0
+ 16
+ 24
– 5
+ 5
+ 4
+ 11
+ 24
+ 51
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
+ 21
+ 24
– 9
– 22
+ 13
+ 2
+ 24
+ 31
+ 5
+ 10
–
–
+ 14
+ 16
+ 2
– 3
+ 3
+ 4
+ 22
+ 31
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1
2
3
4
5
For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 up to and including 2003, estimates are shown for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden). From 2004, the estimates are for the EU25 (EU15 plus the 10 countries of Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia). These countries are included in the definition for the whole of 2004, whether migration occurred
before or after 1 May.
For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
From 2004, the Other Commonwealth excludes Malta and Cyprus.
For 1971 Middle East is included in the 'Other' category of 'Other foreign' countries.
From 2004, Other foreign excludes the eight central and eastern European member states that joined the EU in May 2004.
65
National Statistics
Population Trends 130
Table 7.3
Win t e r 2 0 07
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
Citizenship (numbers)
European Union1
All
Commonwealth
Other
foreign3
British citizens as
percentage of all
citizens
Old
New
53
57
43
50
85
78
17
17
12
19
26
29
36
40
31
31
59
49
54
28
38
44
82
73
46
45
39
48
33
29
72
82
67
63
60
90
105
121
148
151
31
54
54
57
67
59
51
66
91
84
76
100
150
168
162
27
26
26
22
22
418
407
494
474
63
64
117
145
159
166
219
189
66
63
76
68
93
103
143
121
197
177
158
140
18
21
15
16
40
48
194
300
43
74
100
120
40
36
59
84
52
106
17
14
239
326
39
52
200
274
60
85
89
100
39
29
50
71
51
89
16
16
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
240
210
232
213
285
264
171
137
164
132
154
156
69
73
68
81
131
108
..
18
16
13
53
44
29
30
29
29
35
32
13
16
14
19
18
17
16
13
15
10
17
14
40
25
24
40
43
32
71
65
71
62
54
59
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
279
251
291
321
308
149
126
139
161
159
131
126
152
160
149
53
49
59
57
49
40
33
41
47
51
20
20
29
32
32
20
13
12
15
19
38
44
52
55
49
53
50
48
50
52
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
186
190
207
198
174
171
152
181
52
50
43
56
58
59
55
64
42
42
35
39
16
17
20
24
64
62
54
62
52
53
58
52
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
90
117
63
89
21
22
19
36
13
22
6
14
23
31
59
57
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
83
116
63
118
21
35
24
39
15
25
10
14
18
44
57
49
40
19
79
37
43
54
– 79
– 50
– 104
– 11
– 45
– 62
+ 39
+ 31
+ 24
+ 49
+ 89
+ 116
+
–
+
+
+
..
1
4
22
0
28
+
+
+
+
+
+
24
27
14
21
50
47
+
+
–
+
+
+
4
1
2
0
7
12
+
+
+
+
+
+
20
27
16
21
42
35
+
+
+
+
+
+
14
3
15
5
39
41
:
:
:
:
:
:
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
200
191
153
250
328
318
92
87
60
120
109
94
108
104
93
130
219
224
..
19
12
36
53
72
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
326
390
454
483
480
89
103
116
104
106
237
287
337
379
373
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
95
106
88
91
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
2
Balance
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 –
–
–
+
+
+
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
+ 47
+ 139
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
–
–
–
–
–
60
23
23
57
53
+ 107
+ 162
+ 186
+ 220
+ 225
+
+
+
+
+
18
33
8
6
11
+ 50
+ 72
+ 80
+ 101
+ 101
+
+
+
+
+
11
34
26
25
35
+
+
+
+
+
39
38
54
76
65
+ 38
+ 57
+ 98
+ 113
+ 113
:
:
:
:
:
2002
2003
2004
2005
+ 153
+ 151
+ 223
+ 185
– 91
– 85
– 119
– 107
+ 245
+ 236
+ 342
+ 292
+
+
+
+
11
14
74
89
+ 101
+ 107
+ 164
+ 125
+
+
+
+
23
21
41
29
+ 77
+ 86
+ 123
+ 97
+ 133
+ 115
+ 104
+ 78
:
:
:
:
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+ 142
– 51
– 68
+ 131
+ 211
+ 22
+ 52
+ 81
+ 83
+ 27
+ 14
+ 53
+ 70
+ 29
+ 75
:
:
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
– 44
– 63
+ 137
+ 155
+ 39
+ 50
+ 65
+ 60
+ 25
+ 4
+ 40
+ 56
+ 33
+ 45
:
:
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1 For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in 'Other foreign' category. From 1976 up to and including 2003, estimates are shown for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden). From 2004, the estimates are for the EU25 (EU15 plus the 10 countries of Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia). These countries are included in the definition for the whole of 2004, whether migration occurred
before or after 1 May.
2 From 2004, the New Commonwealth excludes Malta and Cyprus.
3 For 2004 onwards, Other foreign excludes the eight central and eastern European member states that joined the EU in May 2004.
National Statistics
66
Population Trends 130
Table 8.1
Wi n t e r 2007
Internal migration
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
Numbers (thousands)
Government Office Regions of England
England
Wales
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
105.4
93.7
115.6
95.8
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Northern
Ireland
North East
North
West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
50.4
45.4
43.9
55.8
9.7
6.8
8.8
12.5
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
..
155.0
182.8
148.8
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
123.8
108.3
148.8
120.7
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
104.0
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
93.0
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
173.9
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.7
111.7
108.6
104.2
100.9
97.5
96.6
98.3
95.6
58.0
59.5
60.0
64.0
62.7
60.1
55.9
56.5
50.9
48.8
56.5
52.7
59.8
56.8
59.2
49.6
11.6
11.2
12.7
10.8
12.1
12.5
12.2
13.0
38.7
39.2
40.4
42.7
41.9
40.7
39.9
39.7
105.4
106.2
106.3
108.9
109.3
104.9
102.1
100.1
95.2
96.5
96.5
99.7
99.4
98.1
94.1
92.9
111.3
112.1
115.5
119.5
114.8
111.8
105.8
106.9
93.7
94.3
95.3
98.6
95.0
95.1
94.0
92.9
148.4
145.8
147.2
150.0
144.6
145.5
138.7
143.9
162.9
163.0
159.7
154.8
148.3
155.1
161.2
167.9
228.6
224.2
223.8
228.6
220.5
223.4
216.5
224.7
143.2
140.1
143.3
145.9
141.6
138.8
132.3
135.8
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
21.0
22.0
32.7
22.6
11.3
11.7
20.6
12.3
12.7
15.4
15.0
16.0
3.4
3.3
2.9
2.5
7.6
7.8
15.6
8.9
21.5
21.8
36.4
22.5
18.4
18.4
37.6
19.7
20.5
22.0
39.4
24.0
19.4
20.9
31.9
21.8
29.4
31.8
44.6
32.9
36.2
36.5
50.0
38.5
43.9
47.5
74.6
50.4
26.1
28.8
46.3
31.2
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.8
21.5
31.6
22.6
11.0
11.9
20.9
12.7
10.5
11.8
17.0
10.3
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.0
7.3
7.9
15.5
8.9
20.2
21.8
35.3
22.7
17.5
18.1
37.2
20.1
20.6
22.3
39.7
24.4
19.3
20.2
31.2
22.1
30.1
33.0
46.3
34.6
36.9
37.6
52.9
40.4
45.1
49.4
77.3
52.9
26.8
29.8
46.3
32.9
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
104.8
91.5
100.7
112.2
43.9
41.8
49.8
47.4
54.5
47.7
57.9
46.7
14.2
9.4
15.1
9.3
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
78.5
73.3
90.5
85.4
77.2
71.7
84.8
81.4
89.5
78.4
94.8
87.9
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
..
187.0
232.4
202.1
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
94.7
88.0
102.5
98.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.3
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.9
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
125.0
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
209.4
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
111.6
110.8
120.4
119.3
126.0
121.5
118.2
110.4
53.3
52.1
51.5
49.7
48.1
49.2
50.0
49.0
54.9
53.3
50.4
48.4
46.4
45.1
44.7
44.1
12.5
11.9
11.1
11.1
11.7
10.2
12.7
11.1
43.8
42.9
42.6
41.3
40.1
39.4
39.3
39.1
114.9
111.3
110.4
107.5
104.1
104.1
103.1
103.5
97.0
95.7
95.6
94.6
93.0
92.2
92.6
94.2
96.4
94.9
95.6
96.9
96.0
97.0
96.7
98.9
101.8
101.5
101.6
102.7
101.7
100.7
98.6
100.9
125.8
124.6
127.1
130.1
127.4
128.3
123.7
127.0
228.3
231.5
244.2
262.5
262.6
260.2
242.8
246.7
208.7
210.5
216.4
220.2
211.1
208.1
201.0
201.4
110.7
110.7
110.7
111.0
108.0
108.4
106.9
107.9
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
25.4
28.0
36.0
28.9
10.3
11.4
16.7
11.5
10.0
10.4
13.9
10.5
2.8
2.7
4.7
2.6
8.2
9.0
13.4
8.8
20.8
23.2
35.4
23.7
18.4
21.8
31.4
21.0
19.5
22.0
33.1
22.1
19.6
21.5
35.2
22.3
25.4
25.6
44.1
28.5
52.7
52.6
79.0
58.6
41.5
43.0
70.2
46.3
21.3
22.7
38.1
24.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.0
25.1
38.3
24.0
9.8
11.2
16.6
11.5
9.7
10.3
13.5
10.6
2.1
2.1
4.3
2.6
7.8
8.8
13.8
8.8
20.8
23.1
36.2
23.4
18.5
21.6
32.5
21.8
19.6
22.5
34.0
22.8
20.3
22.1
36.0
22.5
25.5
26.3
46.0
29.2
52.7
53.4
80.8
59.7
40.6
43.1
70.6
47.2
21.4
22.8
38.6
25.1
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 0.6
+ 2.1
+14.9
– 16.4
+ 8.1
+ 2.7
+ 5.4
+ 4.0
– 4.1
– 2.3
– 14.1
+ 9.2
– 4.5
– 2.5
– 6.3
+ 3.2
–
–
–
–
1.0
8.0
9.1
0.7
– 9.8
–19.3
–25.8
– 8.8
– 0.3
– 5.0
– 11.9
– 0.4
+ 6.8
+ 4.9
+17.1
+ 8.1
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
+ 30.7
+ 17.0
+ 16.5
+ 9.1
..
–32.0
–49.6
–53.3
+ 33.7
+ 35.8
+ 39.2
+ 13.0
+29.1
+20.3
+46.4
+21.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
–
+
+
–
–
2.9
0.2
5.8
3.8
0.1
+ 1.5
+ 1.6
+ 2.0
+ 4.1
+ 2.1
+
–
–
+
–
2.6
3.5
7.5
2.2
1.2
– 1.2
+ 1.8
– 0.4
– 2.4
– 0.8
–
–
–
–
–
6.4
7.7
5.9
5.9
4.8
–10.1
–12.1
– 9.0
–11.0
–11.8
–
–
–
–
–
4.4
6.8
7.4
7.3
4.9
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.6
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
– 11.1
– 7.4
+ 15.1
+ 15.9
+ 18.3
+ 20.3
+ 17.7
–45.9
–36.9
–45.4
–54.5
–44.0
+ 25.1
+ 22.7
+ 29.1
+ 23.8
+ 16.7
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
+ 0.1
– 2.2
– 16.3
–18.4
–28.5
–25.0
–19.9
–14.9
+ 4.7
+ 7.4
+ 8.5
+14.3
+14.6
+10.9
+ 5.9
+ 7.4
– 4.0
– 4.5
+ 6.1
+ 4.3
+13.4
+ 11.7
+ 14.5
+ 5.5
– 0.8
– 0.7
+ 1.6
– 0.3
+ 0.4
+ 2.3
– 0.5
+ 2.0
– 5.1
– 3.7
– 2.3
+ 1.4
+ 1.8
+ 1.3
+ 0.6
+ 0.6
– 9.5
– 5.1
– 4.1
+ 1.4
+ 5.2
+ 0.8
– 1.0
– 3.5
– 1.8
+ 0.8
+ 0.9
+ 5.0
+ 6.4
+ 5.9
+ 1.5
– 1.3
+14.9
+17.2
+19.9
+22.6
+18.7
+14.8
+ 9.2
+ 8.1
– 8.1
– 7.2
– 6.3
– 4.1
– 6.7
– 5.6
– 4.6
– 8.0
+ 22.6
+ 21.2
+ 20.1
+ 19.9
+ 17.2
+ 17.2
+ 15.1
+16.9
–65.4
–68.6
–84.5
–107.8
–114.3
–105.1
–81.5
– 78.8
+ 19.8
+ 13.8
+ 7.4
+ 8.4
+ 9.4
+ 15.3
+ 15.5
+ 23.3
+32.6
+29.3
+32.6
+34.8
+33.6
+30.5
+25.4
+27.9
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
–
–
–
–
4.4
5.9
3.4
6.2
+ 1.0
+ 0.3
+3.9
+ 0.8
+
+
+
+
2.8
5.0
1.2
5.6
+ 0.7
+ 0.7
– 1.7
– 0.1
– 0.6
– 1.2
+ 2.3
+ 0.1
+ 0.6
– 1.5
+ 1.0
– 1.1
–
–
+
–
+
–
+
+
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
4.0
6.2
0.5
4.4
–16.5
–16.1
–29.0
–20.1
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
– 3.2
– 3.6
– 6.7
– 1.4
+ 1.2
+ 0.7
+ 4.4
+ 1.2
+ 0.8
+ 1.4
+ 3.5
– 0.3
+ 1.2
+ 1.5
– 1.2
+ 0.5
– 0.4
– 0.9
+ 1.8
+ 0.1
– 0.5
– 1.4
– 0.9
– 0.7
– 0.9
– 3.5
+ 4.7
– 1.7
+ 4.6
+ 6.6
+ 0.3
+ 5.4
–15.8
–15.8
–28.0
– 19.3
+ 4.5
+ 6.4
+ 6.7
+ 5.7
Note:
Scotland
0.0
3.5
6.2
1.2
1.0
0.0
6.3
1.9
+ 0.9
– 0.2
+ 5.7
+ 1.6
0.1
0.6
3.3
0.6
– 1.0
– 1.9
– 4.8
– 0.4
2.4
4.5
4.5
4.1
Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
67
National Statistics
South
West
4.8
6.1
8.2
6.4
+ 5.5
+ 6.9
+ 7.7
+ 7.8
Population Trends 130
Table 9.1
Win te r 2 0 07
First marriages1: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
Number
Rate2
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 20
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
19864
1991
253.0
222.8
45.0
37.8
6.0
3.4
64.4
43.3
105.1
81.0
73.9
66.5
30.9
29.9
4.8
4.8
3.8
2.1
26.3
27.5
25.1
26.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.1
198.2
193.3
188.3
186.3
34.3
32.4
31.1
29.7
28.9
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
31.7
28.3
25.2
22.8
21.0
73.3
68.2
64.5
61.1
59.4
61.1
59.9
59.4
58.0
57.8
30.2
30.2
30.7
30.6
30.2
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
184.3
186.1
175.7
179.1
189.5
192.0
172.9
28.0
27.7
25.5
25.3
26.1
25.7
22.4
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
18.9
18.2
16.2
16.2
16.3
15.7
12.3
56.9
54.3
50.4
48.4
49.4
48.3
42.0
57.7
58.2
54.5
55.2
57.7
57.5
51.5
30.4
32.0
29.6
30.9
32.7
33.3
30.2
5.3
5.7
5.3
5.9
6.9
7.2
6.6
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
30.1
30.5
30.6
30.9
31.2
31.4
31.7
29.2
29.6
29.7
30.1
30.3
30.4
30.7
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.3
52.3
82.1
32.8
12.4
28.9
44.8
17.9
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.1
8.8
17.5
27.5
11.1
21.7
55.1
89.1
31.3
25.7
64.3
101.1
39.3
16.7
36.4
52.9
24.6
4.3
7.5
9.8
6.0
1.7
0.9
0.7
1.2
31.4
31.2
31.0
31.6
30.4
30.3
30.1
30.7
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.5
52.4
83.0
33.1
12.6
28.2
44.1
17.6
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.1
9.1
16.7
26.0
10.9
22.2
52.6
87.2
30.7
26.3
63.8
100.6
39.1
16.7
37.3
54.5
24.6
4.1
8.1
10.5
5.9
1.6
0.8
0.7
1.2
31.4
31.5
31.2
31.7
30.3
30.6
30.3
30.7
2005 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
19.9
47.0
77.0
28.9
10.5
24.5
39.6
14.9
0.8
0.8
1.2
0.7
7.0
12.9
21.1
7.8
18.1
45.5
78.2
25.6
22.0
56.7
92.3
34.4
14.6
33.3
50.5
21.1
3.7
7.6
9.7
5.3
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
31.6
31.8
31.4
32.2
30.6
30.8
30.5
31.2
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.1
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
19864
1991
256.8
224.8
55.6
46.7
24.1
14.0
102.4
73.0
108.7
90.6
67.1
62.7
28.6
28.1
2.7
2.8
13.9
7.9
24.1
25.5
23.1
24.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.3
198.6
192.7
188.5
187.4
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.7
9.6
9.0
8.0
7.4
7.2
56.4
50.8
45.7
42.5
39.9
84.5
80.5
77.2
74.1
72.6
58.9
57.1
57.2
56.1
56.1
27.7
27.6
27.8
27.2
26.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
185.3
187.7
177.5
180.7
191.2
194.3
176.0
33.5
33.2
30.6
30.3
31.2
30.8
27.0
6.7
6.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
4.9
3.2
36.7
35.2
31.9
30.9
31.3
30.1
24.1
70.8
68.7
64.3
62.9
64.0
62.9
56.3
56.0
57.2
53.2
54.3
57.4
58.2
53.4
26.5
27.5
25.5
26.8
28.4
28.8
26.2
3.5
3.9
3.7
4.3
5.2
5.6
5.1
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
2.4
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
28.9
29.1
29.5
27.3
27.5
27.7
27.9
28.1
28.3
28.5
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.1
53.0
83.3
32.7
14.7
34.7
54.0
21.2
4.2
5.6
6.9
4.7
15.8
33.9
55.2
20.0
25.3
72.9
117.4
39.5
25.3
63.7
98.5
41.4
15.6
31.3
44.7
21.8
3.6
5.8
6.9
4.4
6.1
3.4
2.7
4.6
29.0
29.0
28.7
29.3
28.0
28.2
28.0
28.6
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.2
53.0
84.5
33.6
14.8
33.8
53.3
21.2
4.5
4.8
6.3
4.1
15.8
32.2
53.0
19.3
26.0
69.4
116.1
39.9
25.7
65.1
99.5
42.3
14.8
32.2
45.4
22.7
3.5
6.4
7.5
4.8
6.4
3.0
2.5
4.1
28.9
29.3
28.9
29.6
28.0
28.4
28.1
28.7
2005 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
19.9
48.3
78.6
29.1
12.4
29.7
47.8
17.7
3.0
3.0
4.2
2.5
11.9
26.2
43.8
14.3
22.3
61.8
106.0
34.3
23.5
59.3
92.8
37.3
12.8
29.3
42.4
20.1
3.1
6.3
7.0
4.1
5.0
2.1
1.8
2.9
29.4
29.6
29.2
30.0
28.4
28.6
28.3
29.1
Year and quarter
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Mean
age3
(years)
Median
age3
(years)
Note: Rates for 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised marital status estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
2 Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
3 The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
4 Marriage rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
p provisional
National Statistics
68
Wi n t e r 2007
Population Trends 130
Table 9.2
Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Remarriages of divorced persons
Number
Rate2
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 35
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
19865
1991
83.4
74.9
91.0
63.0
141.4
81.1
158.9
111.3
141.3
100.6
106.0
72.7
49.9
38.4
38.5
34.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
60.0
58.6
57.9
55.7
52.7
180.6
190.0
166.2
170.9
167.0
131.7
132.1
135.2
132.2
124.7
110.2
111.4
111.2
110.3
104.1
71.5
72.2
73.8
72.9
71.6
36.1
34.9
35.0
33.6
32.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
72.6
75.4
67.7
70.5
74.4
75.1
68.5
50.7
51.8
45.7
46.0
46.8
45.7
40.4
125.7
97.9
75.7
69.1
76.6
69.3
34.0
120.7
113.2
96.6
91.1
90.1
87.2
65.4
102.9
103.6
95.8
94.7
92.6
88.4
77.0
70.2
74.4
67.6
68.0
69.4
69.5
61.6
Year and quarter
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
All ages
Mean
age3
(years)
Median
age3
(years)
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Number
Rate4
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
39.1
40.3
37.7
39.0
11.6
9.0
16.7
12.5
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
11.5
10.8
10.6
10.3
9.6
31.2
32.6
28.5
29.9
31.6
31.1
28.5
23.3
20.8
19.7
17.8
16.0
14.5
12.7
42.7
43.2
43.5
44.1
44.6
44.9
45.5
41.2
41.8
42.0
42.6
43.3
43.6
44.2
6.6
6.5
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.0
5.7
9.3
9.1
8.0
8.2
8.6
8.3
7.9
2003
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.7
21.0
27.8
14.9
27.3
53.1
69.3
37.3
59.5
75.0
108.0
63.5
63.6
93.9
131.7
70.6
52.3
105.5
142.9
68.9
37.1
77.4
108.7
53.6
19.6
36.5
43.7
26.3
16.4
15.8
16.5
15.2
45.3
44.8
44.0
45.1
43.9
43.5
42.7
43.8
1.0
1.8
2.0
1.4
5.7
10.0
11.1
7.5
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
20.8
28.2
15.5
25.8
51.1
68.4
37.6
67.5
59.9
86.2
63.6
58.1
86.4
126.2
77.6
50.6
94.8
138.8
69.2
37.4
77.2
108.1
55.2
18.0
35.5
44.3
26.4
15.4
13.7
15.0
14.3
45.2
45.1
44.4
45.3
43.7
43.8
43.1
44.0
1.0
1.7
2.0
1.2
5.7
9.7
10.8
6.8
2005
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
9.5
19.4
26.0
13.7
22.7
45.8
61.0
32.0
39.4
41.3
30.6
24.9
48.6
72.0
90.6
50.1
43.4
88.6
117.2
58.3
32.5
68.2
97.8
47.6
16.5
32.9
41.2
23.3
13.6
12.8
12.5
12.1
45.8
45.6
45.0
46.0
44.6
44.5
43.8
44.6
1.0
1.7
1.9
1.2
5.2
9.3
10.5
6.5
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
19865
1991
80.0
73.4
68.7
50.3
190.9
111.9
155.9
118.1
111.6
89.7
75.6
55.3
24.4
20.9
51.2
47.4
36.0
37.1
34.7
35.7
11.2
8.6
3.8
2.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
47.3
45.7
45.6
43.3
40.1
167.3
166.5
183.5
188.5
175.0
121.0
118.8
120.6
119.4
114.5
91.4
91.9
93.6
90.8
87.1
54.4
54.8
56.0
54.6
52.2
20.6
19.8
20.4
19.6
18.4
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
72.0
74.1
66.1
69.2
73.1
72.9
65.8
38.4
38.5
33.5
34.0
34.9
33.8
29.7
155.0
137.8
104.6
109.0
116.8
111.3
74.2
107.0
107.5
96.9
99.3
100.5
94.3
75.3
84.8
85.6
79.3
80.3
82.5
81.6
70.9
52.3
54.2
48.5
50.6
52.0
52.1
47.0
17.8
18.4
15.9
16.8
18.3
18.0
16.7
34.7
32.0
30.7
28.2
26.1
24.0
21.2
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.9
41.5
41.9
42.6
38.3
38.9
39.2
39.7
40.3
40.8
41.6
6.2
6.2
5.6
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.3
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2003
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
20.5
26.6
15.1
21.1
39.2
50.3
28.6
95.3
115.0
138.2
118.2
69.2
104.3
146.2
81.6
50.3
92.0
120.8
66.2
29.8
58.2
78.1
41.6
11.3
21.2
24.9
15.5
27.7
25.3
26.2
26.0
41.6
41.7
41.2
41.7
40.2
40.6
40.1
40.5
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.6
2.9
1.9
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
20.3
26.7
15.0
20.3
37.9
49.2
27.7
101.1
105.3
134.9
103.7
67.4
99.5
128.7
81.4
52.4
90.5
117.6
65.8
30.1
57.7
78.6
42.1
10.4
20.9
25.7
14.9
27.0
23.3
23.2
24.3
41.4
42.2
41.8
42.0
40.2
41.2
40.8
40.7
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.6
3.0
1.9
2005
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
9.5
18.3
24.4
13.5
17.5
33.1
43.8
24.2
74.6
78.3
84.9
59.1
57.3
77.4
106.6
59.5
42.3
76.4
107.2
57.0
26.8
51.3
71.3
38.1
9.5
19.6
23.8
13.9
23.5
20.2
21.1
20.7
42.2
43.0
42.4
42.8
41.2
42.0
41.5
41.6
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.2
1.3
2.3
2.9
1.8
Note: Rates for 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised marital status estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
2 Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
3 The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
4 Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
5 Marriage rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
p provisional
69
National Statistics
Population Trends 130
Win te r 2 0 07
Divorces: age and sex
Table 9.3
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Petitions
filed
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1st
marriage
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
2nd or
later
marriage
16 and
over
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and
over
Per cent
aged
under 35
Mean age
at divorce1
Median
age at
divorce1
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
19862
1991
1996
49.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.0
129.8
125.8
25.9
29.0
31.3
13.0
13.6
13.9
31.4
26.1
28.1
31.4
32.4
32.6
25.2
28.6
30.2
18.0
20.2
22.2
5.2
5.6
6.4
45.6
42.7
37.5
37.8
38.6
39.8
36.2
37.0
38.1
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
117.3
116.0
115.1
29.4
29.2
29.4
13.1
13.0
13.0
26.0
25.8
24.1
30.4
30.7
29.7
28.7
28.4
28.4
21.1
21.5
21.9
6.1
6.1
6.3
35.9
34.3
32.1
40.2
40.4
40.9
38.4
38.7
39.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
..
..
..
..
..
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.1
114.3
116.9
121.4
121.1
111.7
104.3
29.1
29.5
30.8
32.0
32.3
30.1
28.2
12.7
13.0
13.4
14.0
14.1
13.1
12.4
22.3
20.3
23.2
24.6
25.0
23.9
22.0
27.9
27.9
29.1
30.3
30.3
28.1
26.9
27.4
28.3
29.2
30.0
30.0
27.1
25.7
21.9
22.8
23.7
25.2
25.3
23.5
22.2
6.3
6.5
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.2
29.9
28.4
26.7
24.7
23.3
21.8
20.6
41.3
41.5
41.9
42.3
42.7
43.1
43.4
39.7
40.0
40.4
40.9
41.4
42.0
42.4
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.2
30.1
30.9
29.0
8.3
7.9
8.1
7.9
14.6
14.1
14.3
13.5
24.9
25.2
25.3
24.8
31.6
29.7
30.6
29.4
32.0
29.3
30.2
28.4
26.5
25.4
25.6
23.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.5
23.8
22.9
23.2
23.3
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.7
41.2
41.5
41.5
41.5
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.5
28.7
28.0
26.4
7.7
7.8
7.6
7.0
13.6
13.6
13.1
12.3
25.7
24.5
23.4
21.8
29.0
28.6
27.9
26.8
28.8
27.7
27.4
24.6
24.5
24.1
23.5
21.9
7.6
7.8
7.4
7.1
22.2
21.5
21.9
21.4
43.0
43.2
43.0
43.1
41.8
42.1
41.9
42.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.0
25.8
26.0
25.4
7.3
7.1
6.9
7.0
13.0
12.3
12.2
12.0
24.7
22.1
21.4
19.7
28.1
26.8
26.2
26.5
27.5
25.5
25.1
24.8
23.5
22.0
22.0
21.3
7.4
7.2
7.1
7.1
20.9
20.6
20.4
20.6
43.3
43.4
43.4
43.5
42.2
42.4
42.3
42.5
P
20073 March
JuneP
..
..
34.6
33.1
27.4
26.2
7.3
6.9
13.1
12.4
23.4
22.0
29.2
27.6
26.5
24.2
23.3
22.1
7.8
7.4
20.4
19.9
43.6
43.6
42.6
42.6
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
19862
1991
1996
130.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.8
130.9
126.9
25.1
27.8
30.2
12.8
13.4
13.7
30.7
28.7
30.7
28.6
30.7
33.2
22.0
25.0
27.6
15.8
17.3
19.3
4.1
4.5
5.1
55.0
52.7
47.7
35.3
36.0
37.3
33.6
34.3
35.6
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
118.3
116.8
115.4
28.4
28.5
29.1
12.9
12.9
12.9
28.0
28.5
25.6
31.3
31.4
30.6
26.3
26.6
26.9
18.5
18.9
19.5
4.9
4.9
5.1
45.9
44.3
41.7
37.7
37.9
38.4
36.0
36.3
36.9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.6
114.6
117.5
121.9
121.8
112.0
104.8
28.5
29.2
30.2
31.6
31.6
29.7
27.7
12.6
12.9
13.3
14.0
14.0
13.0
12.3
24.5
23.9
26.8
28.2
27.8
26.5
24.4
29.0
29.2
30.3
31.4
31.7
28.5
28.0
26.6
27.6
28.3
29.1
28.9
26.1
24.4
19.4
20.5
21.6
23.2
23.6
22.2
21.1
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
39.6
37.8
35.9
33.7
31.9
30.0
28.8
38.8
39.1
39.4
39.8
40.2
40.6
40.9
37.3
37.7
38.2
38.7
39.2
39.8
40.1
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.4
30.2
30.9
29.0
8.1
7.8
8.1
7.9
14.5
14.0
14.2
13.4
28.7
28.0
27.8
26.8
33.3
30.8
31.9
30.8
30.8
28.6
29.0
27.1
24.5
23.6
23.8
22.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.3
32.6
31.5
31.7
31.7
40.0
40.3
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.3
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.6
28.8
28.1
26.5
7.6
7.7
7.5
6.9
13.5
13.4
13.0
12.2
27.2
27.6
27.0
24.4
29.5
28.2
28.7
27.6
27.4
27.3
26.2
23.6
23.1
22.9
22.2
20.8
6.4
6.5
6.2
5.9
30.2
29.8
30.2
29.7
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.6
39.6
39.9
39.7
39.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.2
25.9
26.1
25.5
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
12.9
12.2
12.1
11.9
26.5
23.5
22.8
24.9
29.1
27.8
27.4
27.7
26.1
23.9
24.4
23.4
22.3
21.2
20.6
20.2
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.9
29.0
28.3
28.8
28.9
40.8
40.9
40.9
40.9
40.0
40.1
40.1
40.2
P
20073 March
JuneP
..
..
34.7
33.1
27.5
26.2
7.2
6.9
13.0
12.3
27.1
22.7
29.4
28.3
25.3
23.1
22.0
20.9
6.6
6.3
28.4
27.8
41.1
41.2
40.4
40.5
Note: Rates for 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised marital status estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
2
Divorce rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
3
Rates for 2007 are based on 2006 marital status estimates.
p
provisional.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2006
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
45.6
35.6
43.0
41.4
39.3
45.4
44.5
43.7
40.3
39.5
37.6
42.6
45.3
44.0
42.1
41.3
39.5
42.9
43.4
40.9
41.0
40.5
41.8
42.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
45.4
46.3
45.5
37.9
38.8
38.4
44.3
42.2
41.1
39.5
36.8
35.8
45.4
43.6
42.1
38.5
37.6
36.2
42.6
41.5
39.1
36.1
35.8
..
Notes: Data supplied by Ministry of Justice (4 December 2007)
The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971; the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Figures include petitions for nullity
National Statistics
70
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130 W i n t e r 2 0 0 7
Report:
Mid-2006 population
estimates
Introduction
Mid-2006 estimates of the population of England, Wales, Great Britain and
the UK were published on 22 August 2007. Estimates were also published
by Local Authority (LAs) in England and Wales. For England the
estimates were also published by Government Office Region and Strategic
Health Authority; and in Wales by Local Health Board. These estimates
incorporate the improved methods for estimating international migration.
Estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland, also by LAs, were published
somewhat earlier, on 26 April 2007 for Scotland (revised 27 July 2007)
and on 31 July 2007 for Northern Ireland.
United Kingdom population estimates
Definition of resident population
The estimated population of an area incorporates all people who usually
live there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM and US Armed
Forces in the UK are included on a residential basis wherever possible.
HM Forces stationed outside the UK are not included. Students are
taken to be resident at their term-time address. Population estimates use
the United Nations recommended definition of a long-term migrant in
calculating the international migration component of the estimates and do
not adjust the population for visitors or for short-term migrants (certain
people that enter or leave the UK for a period of at least three months,
but for no more than 12 months). The Office for National Statistics
(ONS) has recently published experimental estimates of short-term
migrants, which complement the usual residence definition used in the
mid year-population estimates.
The main factor leading to the increase was the net international
migration component of change, the difference between migration into
and out of the UK. In the year to mid-2006 this added 189,000. While
this was 73,000 less than in the previous year (262,000), it was similar to
the mid-2004 figure (185,000) and 35,000 higher than the figure for the
year to mid-2003 (154,000).
In the year to mid-2006, in-migration into the UK was 574,000. This
was 25,000 lower than in the previous mid-year period, a fall of 4.2 per
cent but 38,000 higher than in the year to mid-2004. Out-migration was
385,000 in the year to mid-2006, the highest figure since the introduction
of the current indicator in 1991. This was 49,000 higher than in the
previous mid-year period, an increase of 14.6 per cent, but only 34,000
more than in the year to mid-2004.
The decrease in net-international migration is mainly due to higher outmigration. Key increases include outflows of ‘Other Foreign’ citizens
from 47,000 to 65,000 and outflows of citizens from the eight Central
and Eastern European countries that acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004
(A8 citizens) from 3,000 to 16,000. This was because the year to mid2006 was the first full annual period for which A8 citizens arriving since
accession could be counted as in-migrants after having been resident in
the UK for at least 12 months. While the inflow of A8 citizens has fallen
from the year to mid-2005, there were still 74,000 A8 citizens migrating
to the UK in the year to mid-2006.
In line with the United Nations recommended definition of international
long-term migration, the population estimates include only people
arriving or leaving for periods of a year or more. They do not include
short-term migrants who stay in the UK for less than a year.
UK population is 60 million
The population of the UK was estimated to be 60.6 million at 30 June
2006, a rise of 0.6 per cent (349,000) compared to a year earlier. The
increase was smaller than the rise of 0.7 per cent (392,500) in the year
to mid-2005. It compares to an average increase of 0.5 per cent over the
five years since 2001 and 0.3 per cent in the 10 years from mid-1991 to
mid-2001. The increased population growth in the year to mid-2006 was
anticipated in the 2004-based national population projections which were
released in 2005.
Components of population change to mid-2006
Table 1 shows the components of population change in the UK and in
England and Wales between mid-2001 and mid-2006. Of the 349,000
increase in the UK population between mid-2005 and mid-2006, the
largest part of the increase, 189,000, is due to net in-migration. The
migration component is an estimate of the number of people migrating
to and from the UK and includes asylum seekers and people who came
(or left) originally as visitors and subsequently chose to remain. These
71
National Statistics
Popula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0 Table 1
W int e r 2007
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or
annual averages)
Mid-year to
mid-year
Population change by country and region
Components of population change mid-2004 to
mid-2006
Resident
population at
start of period
Births
Deaths
Natural Migration Total
change and other annual
changes change
Resident
population at
end of
period
United Kingdom
2001-2004
59,113
684
603
81
163
244
59,846
2004-2005
59,846
717
591
127
266
393
60,238
2005-2006
60,238
734
575
159
190
349
60,587
England and Wales
2001-2004
52,360
610
531
79
153
232
53,057
2004-2005
53,057
641
520
121
241
362
53,419
2005-2006
53,419
657
506
151
159
310
53,729
Note: Figures may not add exactly, due to rounding
Source: Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, and Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Figure 1
Components of population change, UK, 1991–2006
300
250
Net migration &
other changes
Thousands
200
Population growth in the year to mid-2006 was fastest in Northern
Ireland, at one per cent. The population of England increased by 0.6 per
cent, while Scotland and Wales both grew by 0.4 per cent. This pattern is
consistent with the previous year where the greatest growth was also seen
in Northern Ireland.
At regional level, the population grew most in the East Midlands region
(0.8 per cent) and least in the North West (0.2 per cent). Net international
migration (17,800) and natural change (8,200) drove population growth for
the East Midlands region, but this was partly offset by the level of migration
out of the East Midlands region to elsewhere in the UK (–20,300). The East
region and London also grew by 0.8 per cent. Growth in London was lower
than in the year to mid-2005 (1.2 per cent) due to lower net migration flows
to the rest of the UK and higher net international inflows.
Scotland’s population is estimated at 5,116,900 for mid-2006, an increase
of 22,100 on the previous year and an increase of 52,700 since mid2001. In the last three years the natural decrease has been more than
compensated for by net in-migration of 26,000 in mid-2004, 19,300 in
mid-2005 and 21,200 in mid-2006.
Northern Ireland also continues to show population growth with a mid-2006
estimate of 1,741,600, an increase of 17,200 (one per cent) on the previous
year. The increase in the population between mid-2005 and mid-2006 came
as a result of a natural increase of 8,300 people (22,700 births and 14,400
deaths). Population growth from migration was 9,900 people, which is the
highest net in-migration ever observed in Northern Ireland.
150
Changes in the population age structure mid-2001
to mid-2006
100
50
Natural change
0
19
9
1–
19 92
92
–
19 93
93
–
19 94
94
–
19 95
95
–
19 96
96
–
19 97
97
–
19 98
98
–
19 99
99
–0
20
0
00
–
20 0 1
01
–
20 0 2
02
–0
20
3
03
–
20 0 4
04
–
20 0 5
05
–0
6
–50
migrants also include people returning to the UK after a stay abroad of a
year or more. Short-term migrants ­­­– those who stay less than 12 months
in the UK – are not included in the estimates.
The majority of the remaining change, 158,700, is due to natural change,
the difference between the number of births and deaths. Natural change
increased from 126,800 in 2004–05 to 158,700 in 2005–06, as there were
16,700 more births and 15,200 fewer deaths in 2005–06 than in 2004–05.
For births this reflects the recent increase in fertility. In the most recent
year the contribution to population growth from natural change is much
closer to that of migration.
Figure 1 shows the ‘natural change’ and ‘net migration and other changes’
contributions to population growth from mid-1991 to mid-2006. These
figures highlight the increasing importance of migration over this period
as a driver for population change. In the year to mid-1991 ‘natural change’
made up all of the increase in population, with ‘net migration and other
changes’ actually being negative – implying a net outflow of migrants
from the UK. Since then ‘natural change’ has fallen gradually to a low in
2001/02, mainly as a result of a declining number of births. The ‘natural
change’ component has risen quickly since 2002, reflecting both lower
numbers of deaths and an upturn in the fertility rate. Over the 1991 to 2006
period net migration has risen such that ‘net-migration and other changes’
has now become the bigger component of population change, accounting
for around two thirds of growth since 1998.
National Statistics
72
Table 2 shows, for the UK and for England and Wales, how the size of
the population has changed between mid-2001 and mid-2006.
In the year to mid-2005, growth in the population of the UK accelerated
to its fastest rate since the 1960s, taking the total above 60 million for
the first time (to 60,238,400). In 2006, the total population of the UK
continues to rise, to 60,587,300, though with a smaller increase.
The UK population continues to age, which comes as a result of declines
both in fertility rates and in the mortality rate. The number of people aged
85 and over grew by 68,800 (5.9 per cent) in the year to 2006 to reach a
record 1,243,200, reflecting a baby-boom following the First World War,
together with people living longer. This age group had increased from
873,300 in mid-1991 to 1,129,700 in mid-2001, but fell slightly between
mid-2001 and mid-2003 (reflecting a dip in births during the First World
War). The 85 and over age group now makes up almost 2.1 per cent of
the population. In mid-2006 there were 378,900 men and 864,200 women
in this age group.
The working-age population (16 to 59 for women and 16 to 64 for men)
in the UK increased by 288,500 (0.8 per cent), from 37,418,100 to
37,706,600 between mid-2005 and mid-2006. The total number above
working age (60 and over for women and 65 and over for men) rose by
112,000 (1.0 per cent), from 11,231,700 to 11,343,600.
The number of people under 16 in the UK decreased slightly from
11,588,600 to 11,537,100 (a fall of 0.4 per cent) between 2005 and
2006, having previously exceeded 12 million in the 1990s. This decrease
comes despite the recent upturn in the birth rate, and reflects the effect
of numbers of births in previous years. This group now makes up 19 per
cent of the population (compared to 20.7 per cent in 1996). In the year
to mid-2006 there were 5,911,700 boys and 5,625,400 girls in this age
group.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130 W i n t e r 2 0 0 7
Table 2
Mid-2006 population estimates: change in size of selected age-groups, mid-2001 to mid-2006
Children
Pre-school
age
All
Ages
Adults
School age
Working age
Total
0–15
Pensionable age
Total
0–4
5–9
10–15
Total
16–64/59
16–29
30–44
45–64/59
65/60+
65/60–74
75–84
85+
United Kingdom
Resident population
Mid-2001
Mid-2005
Mid-2006
59,113.5
60,238.4
60,587.3
11,862.8
11,588.6
11,537.1
3,482.0
3,429.4
3,496.2
3,734.6
3,554.5
3,489.8
4,646.1
4,604.8
4,551.1
36,405.5
37,418.1
37,706.6
10,420.7
10,861.2
11,076.4
13,405.1
13,418.5
13,302.0
12,579.8
13,138.3
13,328.1
10,845.2
11,231.7
11,343.6
6,419.9
6,637.3
6,684.8
3,295.6
3,420.0
3,415.7
1,129.7
1,174.3
1,243.2
1,124.9
1.9
–274.1
–2.3
–52.7
–1.5
–180.2
–4.8
–41.3
–0.9
1,012.5
2.8
440.6
4.2
13.5
0.1
558.5
4.4
386.5
3.6
217.5
3.4
124.4
3.8
44.6
3.9
349.0
0.6
–51.5
–0.4
66.9
1.9
–64.6
–1.8
–53.7
–1.2
288.5
0.8
215.2
2.0
-116.5
-0.9
189.7
1.4
112.0
1.0
47.5
0.7
–4.4
–0.1
68.8
5.9
52,360.0
53,419.2
53,728.8
10,495.2
10,278.4
10,235.2
3,091.0
3,054.0
3,115.6
3,306.0
3,150.8
3,093.2
4,098.3
4,073.6
4,026.3
32,225.9
33,163.6
33,416.6
9,210.1
9,631.6
9,820.8
11,865.7
11,917.5
11,819.5
11,150.0
11,614.4
11,776.2
9,638.9
9,977.2
10,077.1
5,674.7
5,867.0
5,910.3
2,946.7
3,051.7
3,045.2
1,017.5
1,058.5
1,121.6
1,059.2
2.0
–216.8
–2.1
–37.0
–1.2
–155.2
–4.7
–24.7
–0.6
937.7
2.9
421.5
4.6
51.8
0.4
464.4
4.2
338.3
3.5
192.3
3.4
105.0
3.6
41.0
4.0
309.7
0.6
–43.2
–0.4
61.6
2.0
–57.6
-1.8
–47.3
–1.2
253.0
0.8
189.2
2.0
–98.0
–0.8
161.8
1.4
99.9
1.0
43.2
0.7
–6.5
–0.2
63.2
6.0
Change 2001–05
Absolute
Percentage
Change 2005–06
Absolute
Percentage
England and Wales
Resident population
Mid-2001
Mid-2005
Mid-2006
Change 2001–05
Absolute
Percentage
Change 2005–06
Absolute
Percentage
* Males aged 16-64; females aged 16-59
** Males aged 65 and over; females aged 60 and over
Note: figures may not add exactly due to rounding
Source: Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
UK population 1871 to 2006
Figure 2
Figure 2 shows the population of the UK from 1871 until 2006. The
1871 population was 31.5 million and steadily grew to 44.9 million by
1910. In 1911 this figure dropped by 2.7 million (6 per cent) when the
population of what was the Irish Free State (now Republic of Ireland)
ceased to be included. From 1914 to 1918 and from 1939 to 1942, at the
time of the First and Second World Wars, the population dipped by 7.9
per cent (3.4 million) and 7.2 per cent (3.4 million) respectively. This
was mainly because armed forces serving abroad were excluded from the
England and Wales population estimates. From 1944 the population has
continued to grow at an average of 0.4 per cent to 60.6 million in 2006.
The population has almost doubled in 135 years.
70
60
Millions
50
Second World War
40
30
20
10
Calculation of mid-year population estimates
First World War
Population up to 1910
includes what is now
the Republic of Ireland
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
0
Methodology for England and Wales
The 2001 and subsequent population estimates are based on the
2001 Census. The 1991 estimates are based on the 1991 Census.
The methodology used between Censuses is the cohort component
method, which is to update the previous mid-year estimate, allowing
for population aging, natural change – due to births and deaths, and net
migration during the year. This methodology is used to produce both
the national and the sub-national population estimates, but there are
necessarily slight differences in the way the methodology is applied at
the sub-national level.
Estimated United Kingdom Annual Population
1942 population is based on civilian, where 1943 is based on total population.
This causes a discontinuity in the series.
The latest version of Making a Population Estimate in England and
Wales was published in August 2005. This provides an in-depth look at
the methodology used to produce the mid-year population estimates and
can be found on the National Statistics website: www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/product.asp?vlnkW5. Also available from the same address are
a short guide to population estimates and a leaflet and poster summary.
73
National Statistics
Popula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0 W int e r 2007
These documents will be updated in due course to reflect improved
international migration methodology.
At the national level, the resident population base for the previous
mid-year is adjusted to remove armed forces (both home and foreign)
and their dependants before the population is aged on by one year. The
armed forces and their dependants are a transient group that is estimated
annually outside of the ageing-on process. Using registration data, births
and deaths in the previous mid-year to mid-year period are allowed for
directly. Deaths are subtracted according to their age (at the mid-year
point) and sex and births are added.
An estimate of migration is made using a combination of survey data
(including the International Passenger Survey) and proxy data from
administrative sources. Movements within the United Kingdom are
estimated based on data on re-registrations with general practitioners. In
addition, for international migration, Home Office data are included in
respect of applications from asylum seekers. Adjustments are also made
for visitor switchers (those who entered or left the country for a stay of
less than a year but decide to remain) and migrant switchers (those who
entered or left the country for a stay of more than a year but who decide
to leave within one year).
Following the 2001 Census, the 1992 to 2000 backseries was revised
to be consistent with both the 1991 Census and the 2001 Census. The
methodology for the 1992–2000 backseries is available from the link
titled ‘Methodology for Producing Revised Population Estimates for
1992 to 2000’ from the following page on the National Statistics website:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/
pemethodology
The method used for estimating population in Scotland is broadly similar
but different approaches are used, in particular for migration. Details
can be found in the publication on the 2005-based mid-year estimates
(available from
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/mid-2005-populationestimates/index.html).
A description of the methodology for producing the population estimates
for Northern Ireland can be obtained from: NISRA Customer Services by
emailing: census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk.
Future population estimates for England
and Wales
The data sources used to calculate population estimates are the best that
are currently available on a nationally consistent basis down to local
authority level. The births and deaths information is very high quality
as it is based on registration data. The migration component of the
population estimates is more difficult to estimate accurately. There is no
registration of migration in the UK, hence no administrative data exist
that are a direct measure of total migration.
ONS has established the Improving Migration and Population Statistics
(IMPS) project. This is primarily a forward-looking research-based
project. Its focus is to investigate if there are ways to improve the
migration and population statistics and to establish where it is possible to
introduce changes to sources and methods that will improve the quality
of the statistics in the future. Information on the IMPS project can be
found on the National Statistics website: www.statistics.gov.uk/imps.
ONS is undertaking a substantial and long-term programme of work
to improve the population statistics that it produces. This work has
highlighted several improvements to methodology that can be made
immediately. These principally impact on the distribution of the national
population to local areas. The new methods were used in making the
population estimates for 2006. Revisions have been made to estimates
for the years 2002 to 2005 and to sub-national projections based on
2004 population estimates. The improvements address: the distribution
of international in-migrants to regional and local authority level; the
distribution of international out-migrants to local authority level; and the
basis for making assumptions about the proportion of people who will
not realise their original intentions at the time of travel, in terms of their
expected length of stay in the destination country.
Mid-2007 population estimates for the UK, England and Wales are due
to be published in August 2008. Estimates for Scotland will be published
in spring 2008 with Northern Ireland following in summer 2008.
Further information on the improved methodology, together with tables
showing the impact that the new methods had on the population estimates
for 2002 to 2005, are available on the National Statistics website:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk14834
National Statistics
74
Availability of Population Estimates
On the Internet and Statbase®
The population estimates that are available on Statbase® can be accessed
via the Internet. Population data, metadata and methodology guides
can be accessed most readily via the population estimates homepage:
www.statistics.gov.uk/popest. Estimates for mid-1981 to mid-2006 are
available.
Population estimates for Scotland are also available from:
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/index.html.
Population estimates for Northern Ireland are also available from:
www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp?cmsid _21&cmsÞmography_
population+statistics&release=.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130 W i n t e r 2 0 0 7
Report:
Emerging findings from the
2007 Census Test
As reported in Population Trends 1271, the 2007 Census Test in England
and Wales was held on 13 May 2007 in five different local authorities,
covering approximately 100,000 households. This update presents
emerging findings from the Test, and let’s you know when more detailed
information will be available.
Emerging findings
The two main objectives of the Test were to assess:
• The effect on response of:
- The use of post-out to deliver questionnaires; and
- The inclusion of a question on income
• The feasibility of major innovations in operational procedures, such
as the outsourcing of recruitment, training and pay.
This article presents the assessment’s early findings with regards to the
first of these two objectives. More summary information on this and on
the assessment of the other objectives for the Test is available from the
Office for National Statistics (ONS) website at: www.statistics.gov.uk/ce
nsus/2011census/2011project/2007test.asp
The results of the 2007 Test are still being analysed. Some areas of Test
evaluation are more advanced than others and the results presented here
focus on its main objectives. ONS will make more detailed analysis
of the Test available over the next few months, culminating in a full
evaluation report which will be published in spring 2008.
questionnaire through the post rather than by hand delivery via an
enumerator. If so, it is assumed that the drop in initial return rates can be
recovered with more intensive follow-up.
The household return rates at the end of the Test by LA and Enumeration
Targeting Categorisation (ETC) are shown in Table 1. (Further
information on the Test design and ETC categories are described in an
article in PopulationTrends 1262.)
Apart from ETC 4, there is a clear, statistically significant difference
in the return rates between post-out and hand delivery methods. This
translates to an overall statistically significant difference (in the Test
areas) of 3.2 percentage points. However, the differences between
post-out and hand delivery do not differ noticeably across the ETCs.
This suggests that, although post-out has an impact on return rates, the
difference between the two methods is not affected by the hard-to-count
characteristics of an area.
So, can this difference in initial return rates be recovered with more
intensive follow-up?
Table 1
Household return rates by delivery method
by ETC and LA
Hand delivery
Post-out
Difference (HD-PO)
ETC
1
68.1%
63.6%
4.5%
Delivery method
2
55.9%
50.5%
5.4%
3
49.3%
44.7%
4.6%
One of the key methodological changes proposed for 2011 is a move to
deliver the majority of questionnaires by post rather than by enumerator.
This strategy will help to reduce serious risks, such as the failure to
recruit a large number of enumerators. It also provides savings which can
be invested in improving response from hard-to-count groups and areas
through more targeted follow-up and support processes.
4
36.5%
37.1%
-0.6%
Return rates
The 2007 Test was designed to estimate whether or not response
is significantly reduced in areas where households received their
5
33.4%
29.1%
4.2%
All areas
47.7%
44.5%
3.2%
Camden
35.4%
34.0%
1.4%
Liverpool
46.7%
41.5%
5.2%
Stoke
56.0%
52.3%
3.7%
Bath
61.2%
59.6%
1.6%
Carmarthenshire
66.2%
60.9%
5.3%
All areas
47.7%
44.5%
3.2%
Local authority
75
National Statistics
Popula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 0 W int e r 2007
The follow-up success rate for post-out was slightly less overall (less
than 0.5 per cent), and across all ETCs, than it was for hand delivery,
with broadly equal amounts of follow-up in hand-delivery and post-out
areas. The difference was very small, which supports the assumption
that the success of follow-up is not affected by the delivery method,
and therefore a small reduction in initial return rates, with a post-out
methodology, would be recoverable with more follow-up.
It also implies that the gains associated with hand delivery are merely to
get a higher initial return rate and that it does not affect the success rate at
follow-up. ONS feels that mitigating the reduced initial response due to
a post-out methodology with targeted publicity will be possible.
Table 2
New addresses
Delivery method
ETC
Post-out
1
0.5
53
2
0.2
16
3
0.6
54
4
0.6
61
5
2.6
303
All
1.0
487
1
1.4
123
2
0.8
78
3
1.4
140
4
1.6
186
5
1.7
194
All
1.4
721
1.2
1,208
Hand delivery
Costs
One of the reasons for considering a post-out methodology is that it
intuitively offers cost savings that can be used elsewhere in enumeration,
such as reducing the recruitment risk through increased pay rates,
targeting follow-up in hard to count areas and increasing community
liaison initiatives.
To assess the costs, ONS has developed a high level model that estimates
the expense for different mixes of delivery method. It uses the initial
return rates to estimate the number of follow-up visits that would be
required to achieve an overall response rate of 94 per cent (the 2001
figure).
The model has shown that:
• For 100 per cent post-out and hand delivery with a difference in
initial return rates of five percentage points (approximately the
difference experienced in the Test), post-out results in a savings
between £28 million and £35 million, depending on the success of
follow-up, so as to achieve the 2001 overall response rate of 94 per
cent.
• There would need to be a difference in initial return rates of more
than ten percentage points before the cost of post-out started to equal,
or be more expensive than hand delivery.
• The estimated difference in initial return rates in 2011 is estimated
to be six percentage points (based on the differences in return rates
experienced in the Test) providing a cost saving of between £24.6
million and £32.5 million.
Quality of the address register in the 2007 Test
New addresses found in the test provide a key indicator of the quality of
the address register used for questionnaire delivery. In these instances,
if ONS adopt post-out, it is reliant on missed households requesting a
questionnaire or being identified during follow-up. Table 2 shows the
number and percentage of new addresses that were found during the 2007
test by delivery method.
The table shows that overall, the number of new addresses found was
1.42 per cent in hand-delivery areas and 0.95 per cent in post-out areas.
From this, in 2011 an estimated 1.3 per cent of households would be
missed off the address register if the same levels of hand-delivery
coverage were experienced across the whole of England and Wales.
A quarter of the addresses found in hand-delivery areas were found at
follow-up, suggesting that delivery enumerators would still miss some
addresses.
To understand the quality of the address-list used during the enumeration
phase, an analysis of the addresses found was conducted. The analysis
looked at just over half of the new addresses found and showed that of
the 540 of these that were examined, approximately 68 per cent were
National Statistics
76
New addresses found during the Test by ETC
Total
Per cent
Number
sub-premise addresses. It is likely that most of these were present at the
time of an address check and should have been identified.
Approximately 20 per cent of the addresses found during enumeration
were in fact included in a subsequent version of the Ordnance Survey
address product updated to Test Census day. Therefore some reduction in
the number of new addresses found could be achieved in 2011 through an
update from the address register product before Census day.
The results suggest that significant improvements to the coverage of the
address register can be made through:
• Improvements to the quality of address checking, in particular the
identification and recording of addresses not on the list;
• Subsequent updates of the address register in areas of high change or
areas with significant quality issues (either through a readdress check
or product updates) would reduce the number of those being missed
between the time of the initial check and Census day; and
• Improvement by the address register supplier(s) of the coverage and
accuracy of their product(s).
Conclusions and recommendations
Based on the evidence from the Test, the cost modelling and an analysis
of risks, the conclusions are that:
• Post-out does have an impact on initial return rates, but this is small
enough to consider that the drop in initial response could be made up
with more intensive follow-up;
• The ETC on its own is not a significant factor in the choice of which
delivery method to use in an area;
• The improvements identified for the address register and follow-up
procedures suggest that the levels of undercoverage on the register
will be small and manageable;
• A post-out methodology will provide significant savings to invest in
targeted follow-up and community liaison; and
• The risks identified are manageable, but further development of
mitigations needs to be initiated.
On balance, the evidence suggests that a post-out methodology brings a
number of advantages and savings to manage the risks associated with
post-out and follow-up. Follow-up is crucial, whatever the delivery
method, and how ONS implements the procedures and manage the risks
will be essential to maximising response rates.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 130 W i n t e r 2 0 0 7
Table 3
Household return rates by income/no income
question by ETC and LA
No income
Income
Difference (NI-I)
ETC
1
66.5%
65.0%
1.5%
2
54.4%
51.9%
2.5%
3
49.0%
44.7%
4.3%
4
38.3%
35.5%
2.8%
5
32.1%
30.4%
1.7%
All areas
47.5%
44.6%
2.9%
Camden
Liverpool
Stoke
Bath
35.6%
33.9%
1.7%
45.7%
42.4%
3.3%
55.2%
52.9%
2.3%
61.4%
59.4%
2.0%
Carmarthenshire
64.8%
62.1%
2.9%
All areas
47.5%
44.6%
2.9%
Local authority
Therefore ONS has decided that post-out will be the primary method of
delivering questionnaires in 2011.
Income
A decision on the inclusion of an income question in the 2011 Census
will depend on both the findings from the 2007 Test and the outcome of
continuing consultation on topics, and the relative priority given to this
question in relation to other user demands for new Census information.
A final decision on topics and questions will be made in spring 2008.
The inclusion of a question on income will be considered as part of this
process, provided the full evaluation of the Test shows that the inclusion
of an income question will not adversely affect the quality of responses.
To date only an analysis of return rates has been conducted. The
difference in return rates between questionnaires with and without an
income question is 2.9 percentage points. Overall, questionnaires with
income had a return rate of 44.6 per cent compared with 47.5 per cent
from questionnaires with no income question. Table 3 summarises the
results by LA and ETC.
Further assessment of the quality of responses to the income question is
being undertaken along with the results of the Census Test Evaluation
Survey - which specifically tested views on the income question from
both responders and non-responders. The results of this analysis will
be published in a more detailed report early in 2008 and reported on in
Population Trends.
1 In Brief. Recruitment starts for field staff for the 2007 Census Test.
Population Trends 127, 4–5.
2 Pete Benton, Elizabeth McLaren, Sarah Walker and Ian White
(2006). The 2007 Census Test: a major step towards the 2011
Census. Population Trends 126, 16–28.
Output geography for National Statistics and
the 2011 Census–Consultation results
A major National Statistics Consultation on Small Area Geographies (for
England and Wales) ran from 15 November 2006 to 21 February 2007.
The purpose of the consultation was to take user views on how ONS
should proceed with the use of Output Areas (OAs) and Super Output
Areas (SOAs), and how these areas would be used for the 2011 Census.
A total of 243 complete questionnaires were received, along with more
than 100 additional comments and submissions. The consultation was
considered a success by ONS, both in terms of the level of response and
of the high quality of responses made.
The report on the results and analysis of the consultation is now available
on the National Statistics (NS) website (see below). It includes a clear
statement about the current thinking on the approach to geography to
be used for Census 2011. The first eight pages provide an executive
summary and clear statement of the conclusions drawn, while the rest of
the report analyses the views expressed and explains the thinking behind
the policy to be adopted.
The report’s main conclusions are:
• The NS small area geography policy will be to retain a high degree of
stability, both at the OA and SOA level.
• Minimal changes will be made after the 2011 Census to take account
of the most significant changes in population and to adjust the worst
performing OAs and SOAs. Such changes will be limited to less than
5 per cent of OAs nationally – and may be significantly below this
level.
• Changes at the Lower Layer SOA will be similarly minimised, but
changes to the Middle Layer SOAs will only be made in exceptional
circumstances.
• As far as possible, changes to OAs and SOAs will be made by simple
mergers or splits of the existing scheme.
• No decision has yet been made on identifying communal
establishment OAs in NS and Census outputs.
• There are currently no plans to establish business or workplace OAs.
• The consultation has not identified sufficient support to make the
constructions of a set of Upper Layer SOAs a priority at this stage.
• It is not currently proposed that areas of empty land will be defined as
part of the NS small area geography.
• Further consideration will be given to options for improving the
alignment of existing boundaries to real world features.
• ONS will take every step possible to ensure that digital boundaries
are made freely available to end users and that licensing is kept as
simple as possible for all types of sharing and distribution.
• All possible steps will be taken to ensure that a common boundary
exists between Scottish and English data sets.
• A separate set of boundaries reflecting mean-high-water will be
released, as well as for those extending to the extent of the realm.
The report can be downloaded at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/consultations/small_area_geography_policy.
asp
77
National Statistics
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Population Trends 131
Health Statistics Quarterly 37
Publication March 2008
Publication February 2008
Planned
articles:
Reports:
•
Fertility assumptions for the 2006-based national
population projections
•
2006-based national population projections for the UK
and constituent countries
•
Marriages in England and Wales 2006
Forthcoming Annual
Reference Volumes:
Planned
articles:
Reports:
•
Suicide by marital status in England and Wales,
1982–2005
•
Cancer incidence and mortality: trends in the United
Kingdom and constituent countries, 1993–2004
•
•
•
Conceptions in England and Wales, 2006
•
Deaths involving MRSA: England and Wales 2002–06
Health expectancies in the UK, 2004
Deaths involving Clostridium difficile: England and
Wales, 2002–06
Title
Planned publication
Congenital anomaly statistics 2006*
January 2008
*Available through the National Statistics website only www.statistics.gov.uk
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
78