Sep 6th, Rio De Janeiro
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
•
”The telephone would be used only
to inform people of arrival of
telegrams."
1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE
1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH
-- 15 % Penetration
-- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people
New York 1891,Broadway/John Street
Analog Communication
Phone
Phone
Phone
Phone
Infra
Infra
Econo
Econo
Financ
Financ
Educ
Educ
TransTransPortAgriPortAgriculture
ation culture
ation
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
BCAST
BCAST
Infra
Infra
Internet: as of Yesterday
Phone
Phone
Econo
Econo
Financ
Financ
TransTransEduc
AgriEduc
Agriportation
portation culture
culture
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
Internet
BCAST
BCAST
Infra
Infra
Phone Infra
Internet: as of Today
Phone
Phone
Econo
Econo
Financ
Financ
TransTransAgriAgriportation
Educ
Educ portation culture
culture
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
Internet
BCAST
BCAST
Infra
Infra
Internet Infra
Phone Infra
(fiber, cable &wireless)
Internet: as of Tomorrow
Phone
Phone
Econo
Econo
Financ
Financ
TransTransEduc
AgriEduc
AgriPortation
Portation culture
culture
InternetInfrastructure
Infrastructure
Internet
(fiber,cable,
cable,and
andwireless)
wireless)
(fiber,
BCAST Infra
Phone Infra
Internet
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
Internet Infrastructure
for digital communication society
Phone
Phone
Econo
Econo
Financ
Financ
TransTransEduc
AgriEduc
Agriportation
portation culture
culture
Internet
Internet
(Integrated)Internet
InternetInfrastructure
Infrastructure
(Integrated)
A testbed is VERY important!
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
IPv4: Not enough IP addresses
and growing requirements
TansTansportation
portation
Econo
Econo
Finance
Finance
TV
TV
Radio
Radio
Phone
Phone
Educ
Educ
AgriAgriculture
culture
IPv4
IPv4
Cable
Cable
Optical
Optical
Fiber
Fiber
Wireless
Wireless
Satellite
Satellite
IPv6: The Internet Infrastructure
TransTV
TransTV
Econo
Econo
portation
Radio
portation Finance Radio
Finance
Phone
Phone
Educ
Educ
AgriAgriculture
culture
IPv6
Cable
Cable
Optical
Optical
Fiber
Fiber
Wireless
Wireless
Satellite
Satellite
Televisio
n
(1926)
Radio
(1905)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Electricit
y
(1873)
Telephon
e
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
PC
(1975)
20
Internet
(1975)
0
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
ARPANET DEMONSTRATION
Johannesburg, South Africa, 1974
under
X
1G
2G
3G
10 * 4
10 * 8
10 * 10
Professionals
Innovators
Everyone
Email, Ftp
WWW
Wireless, Streaming Media
9.6 k
56 k
1+M
Government Internet Public Internet
Global Internet
1G
2G
3G
10 * 4
10 * 8
10 * 10
Professionals
Innovators
Everyone
Email, Ftp
WWW
Wireless, Streaming Media
9.6 k
56 k
1+M
Government Internet Public Internet
Global Internet
1G
2G
3G
10 * 4
10 * 9
10 * 38
Professionals
Innovators
Every-One & -Thing
Email, Ftp
WWW
Wireless, Streaming Media
ALWAYS
k
56 k
1 + M -ON
DIAL9.6-UP
INTERNET
Government Internet Public Internet
Global Internet
• NCP Conception1961
1969
• NCP Roll-Out
IP Conception 1972
IPv4 Roll-Out
IPv6
Conception
1983
1991
IPv6 Roll-Out2000
1969
1982
1982
Now!
Now!
1995-Now
IPv6 Technical Directorate
Chair: Jim Bound
Scott Bradner
Brian Carpenter Steve Deering Christian Huitema Allison Mankin
Matt Crawford Charlie Perkins Thomas Narten Erik Nordmark
Thomas
Ecklund
IPv6 Technical Directorate
Francis Dupont Alain Durand Jack McCann Henk Steenman
Stephen Hayes
IvanoFinkelson
Guardini
Dale
Cyndi Jung
Peter Tattam
Stig Venas Carl Williams
Brian
Zill
Yanick
Pouffary
Brian Haberman
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
19
Users (Millions)
Internet User Trends
Year
Source: Nua Internet Surveys + vgc projections
InfoCom Application Areas
Appliance
Person
Growing
Notifications
Appliance
Alarm
Email
Person
Emerging
IPsensors
Voice
Maturing
Telemetry
Fax
Home Banking
VoiceMail
Computer
TeIephony
Integration
Voice Control
Growing
G - Evolution in continuity
Information bit rate
4G
3G
?
2G
Mobile
Multimedia
1G
Voice
1972
Integrated
Wireless World
Voice + Data
GSM 900/1800
DECT
1992
UMTS/IMT-2000
MBS
BB-WLANs
2002
2012
2022
©JPER
Evolution from 2G to 3G and Beyond
Circuit
Circuit
switched
switched
UMTS
GSM
UWC-136
IP
IP core
core
CS
CS voice
voice // packet
packet data
data
3GPP
3GPP Rel
Rel 0x
0x
IMT-2000
IMT-2000 CDMA
CDMA
Direct
Direct Spread
Spread ++ TDD
TDD
3GPP
3GPP Rel
Rel 99
99
2G
2G
HSCSD
HSCSD
GPRS
GPRS
EDGE
EDGE
D-AMPS
D-AMPS
GPRS
GPRS
EDGE
EDGE
end
end to
to end
end IP
IP
GPRS/EDGE
IMT-2000 TDMA
Single-Carrier
Includes Vertical
Handover between
Technologies
MBS
MBS at
at 60
60 GHz?
GHz?
Optimally Connected
Anywhere, Anytime
Ad
Ad hoc
hoc Networks
Networks
CDMA
IS
IS 95
95
CDMA
CDMA
2000
2000
IMT-2000 CDMA
Multi-Carrier
Bluetooth
New
New Radio
Radio
Interface?
Interface?
HiperLAN/
802.11a
WLAN
2G
evolved 2G
9.6-14.4 kbps
64-144 kbps
3G
384 kbps-2 Mbps
and
beyond
384 kbps-20 Mbps
100 Mbps?
A Galaxy of heterogeneous networks
Wireless
IP
Society
4th Generation
Satellite
S-UMTS Broadband
DVB-S
Satellite/HAPS
DVB-T
DAB
Broadcasting
UMTS ++
UMTS
GPRS/EDGE
GSM
Cellular
Broadband
W-LAN
Bluetooth
Personal
DECT
Area Networks
IR
Broadband
WFA
MBS 60
MWS
MBS 40
Quasi-Cellular
Body LANs
Indoor
Local Area Networks
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
mobility
mobile/mobile
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Internet Industry
Carrier class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Next nd
rou
g
e
l
batt
Vision: World at your fingertips
ADSL,
Cable TV,...
Service
Gatewa
y
What is the Key Enabler for
Mass Deployment
of Mobile IP-Services ??
It must be
!! Cheap Cheap Chea
Cheap
2000 2001
Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap
2002 2003 2004 2005
Cheap Cheap
(1 Billion Users Forecast)
-
NCP
1970
Pv4
1980
NAT
NAT
1990
?
IPv6
2001
IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!
Always-On IP Addresses
Global Address Allocation
ARIN
APNIC
5%
2%
RIPE NCC
4%
APNIC
36%
RIPE NCC
Unallocated
ARIN PRE-RIR
Historical
Allocations
53%
Global IPv6 Distribution
UK
SE
EU FR PL
RU
TW
NL
DE
Other:
AU, AT, BE,
CA, CN, DK,
FR, GR, HK,
IT, MX, PT,
SG, CH
KR
US
JP
Million
Mobile Phones
Mobile IP Phones
1% Roaming
400 Wireless Networks
Year 2005 Year 2010
1500
3000
500
1000
5
10
2000
4000
Growth in BGP Route Table
120,000
But they cannot be
relied on forever
90000
80000
70000
Source: http//www.telstra.net/
ops/bgptable.html
60000
50000
40000
Projected routing table
growth without CIDR/NAT
30000
Moore’s Law and NATs
make routing work today
20000
10000
Dec-99
Jun-99
Dec-98
Jun-98
Dec-97
Jun-97
Dec-96
Jun-96
Dec-95
Jun-95
Dec-94
Jun-94
Dec-93
Dec-92
Jun-92
Dec-91
Jun-91
Dec-90
Jun-90
Dec-89
Jun-89
Dec-88
Jun-88
0
Jun-93
Deployment
Period of CIDR
Scenario 1
IPv6
Deployment
Successful
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Complete Failure
Sub-secnario 1
Partial
Sub-scenario 2
Address
Restored e-2e Recycling
Transparency
addresses
Exhaustion
NAT-o-NAT
Partial
IPsec
Works e-2-e
Limited
Broken
Partial
FOG
Fog
Clears!
Noticeble
Fog
Permanet
Thick Fog
Noticeble
Fog
Issues
Intranet,
NATs between Similar to
Generalised
Proxies &
use of NAPT, even ISPs
v4-2-v6
Firewalls may RSIP?
Transition
remain
Scenario 1
IPv6
Deployment
Successful
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Complete Failure
Sub-secnario 1
Partial
Sub-scenario 2
Address
Restored e-2e Recycling
Transparency
addresses
Exhaustion
NAT-o-NAT
Partial
IPsec
Works e-2-e
Limited
Broken
Partial
FOG
Fog
Clears!
Noticeble
Fog
Permanet
Thick Fog
Noticeble
Fog
Issues
Intranet,
NATs between Similar to
Generalised
Proxies &
use of NAPT, even ISPs
v4-2-v6
Firewalls may RSIP?
Transition
remain
Scenario 1
IPv6
Deployment
Successful
Scenario 2
Complete Failure
Sub-scenario 1
Address
Restored e-2e Recycling IP
Transparency
Addresses
IPsec
Works e-2-e
Limited
FOG
Fog
Clears!
Noticeble
Fog
Issues
Scenario 3
Partial
Sub-scenario 2
Exhaustion Partial
NAT-o-NAT
Broken
Permanet
Thick Fog
Partial
Noticeble
Fog
Generalised
Intranet,
NATs between Similar to
use of NAPT, even ISPs
Proxies &
v4-2-v6
Firewalls may RSIP?
Transition
remain
Scenario 1
IPv6
Deployment
Successful
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Complete Failure
Sub-secnario 1
Partial
Sub-scenario 2
Address
Restored e-2e Recycling
Transparency
addresses
Exhaustion
NAT-o-NAT
Partial
IPsec
Works e-2-e
Limited
Broken
Partial
FOG
Fog
Clears!
Noticeble
Fog
Permanet
Thick Fog
Noticeble
Fog
Issues
Generalised
Intranet,
NATs between Similar to
use of NAPT, even ISPs
Proxies &
v4-2-v6
Firewalls may RSIP?
Transition
remain
Scenario 1
IPv6
Deployment
Successful
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Complete Failure
Sub-secnario 2.1
Partial
Sub-scenario 2.2
Address
Restored e-2e Recycling
Transparency
addresses
Exhaustion
NAT-o-NAT
Partial
IPsec
Works e-2-e
Limited
Broken
Partial
FOG
Fog
Clears!
Noticeble
Fog
Permanet
Thick Fog
Noticeble
Fog
Issues
Generalised
Intranet,
NATs between Similar to
use of NAPT, even ISPs
Proxies &
v4-2-v6
Firewalls may RSIP?
Transition
remain
The Culture Shock !
Bell Heads
The people who know how to operate massive
mission - critical networks will control the Net
Net Heads
The people who get it will run it
Melting Pot
Established carriers will hire Internet geeks and buy ISPs, and
NG service providers will bring in experienced pros
Bell Heads
!
Central control is a must.
! The only way to scale the infrastructure is with a
hierarchical, unified system architecture.
! Web-centric computing is an extension of the mainframe era.
! ‘Bet you `re glad you don`t have to reboot your phone when
you need to dial 911!
! Contradiction: Deregulation and technical innovation have
made it impossible to maintain control of ifThe System.lT
Net Heads
! # Chaos is good for creativity.
!
The only way to scale the Net is with decentralized architecture
and control.
! Peer-to-peer networking is an extension of the PC revolution.
! # Information (software, music, etc.) wants to be free. »
!
Contradiction: Now that the 25-year adolescence of the Net is
over, and businesses want to use it for e-commerce, the Net
must grow up or get adult supervision.
IPv6 : An e-Buisness Enabler
IPv6
Critical Success Factor
Today with IPv4
Cost Effectiveness
Costly workarounds
Flexibility
Frequent renumbering
Simplified network planning
as site grows
and management
Reliability
Operational complexity
>1 billion addresses / person
Return to simple and
scalable architecture
Availability
Scalability
Accessibility
Single points of failure
Client/server
Obstacles to deploying
next generation
24x7 operation
Peer-to-peer
Pervasive enabler
Simplified application
applications (e.g., VoIP ) development
Security
Interferes with some
applications
Enabler for end-to-end
security
•
•
•
•
Volume
The BIG Questions!
Why √
When ?
Where ?
What is the cost ?
Total
IPv6
IPv4
Time
Strategic IPv6 Icebreakers
Euro6IX
6NET
100% IPv6 readiness by 2005
• Prime Mister of
Japan Yoshiro
Mori
– 80 M$
• Korean MIC
followed Japan
Feb 23, 2001
– 68 M$
Japanese Deployment Efforts
• Governmental
– IPv6 Council (Kyogikai)
– JGN (Japan Gigabit Network) IPv6
• R&D
– WIDE IPv6 / NSPIXP6 / Kame / Usagi / TAHI
• Industrial
– IAJapan IPv6 Deployment Committee
– JPNIC IPv6 project
– IPv6 Operation Study Group
• Publication
– IPv6 Journal (RIIS)
– v6start (Nikkei BP)
IPv6 Council
• Initiated by Ministry of Public Management, Home
Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
• Chair: Jun Murai
• Not only router vendors and service providers, but
home appliance developers etc. are involved
• TAO (Telecommunications Advancement Organization of Japan)
conducts a nation-wide IPv6 experiment including
home appliance application development, using
budget of 8 billion Yen (= $ 800k).
The telecoms and data worlds
have different roots:
Common
applications !
!
Common infrastructure
Data Communications
Telecommunications
• connectionless
• connection-oriented
• services are loosely-coupled
to the network
• services are tightly-coupled to
the network
• distributed control
• centralised control
• software is fault tolerant
• hardware is fault tolerant
• features selected during
sessions
• features selected at call setup
• little attention to QoS
• obsession with QoS
• high latency
• low latency
The telecoms and data worlds
have different roots:
Common
applications !
!
Common infrastructure
Gracefull Transitions
IPv4
IPv4
TB
TB
DSTM
DSTM
6to4
6to4
NAT-PT
NAT-PT
NAT-PT
6over4
NAT-PT
6over4
BIS
BIS
BIS
BIS
NAT-PT
NAT-PT
SOCKS
SOCKS
SOCKS SOCKS
BIS
BIS
"4to6
?"
"4to6
?"
SOCKS
SOCKS
IPv4 Ocean
IPv4 Only
IPv4 Island
IPv6
IPv6
IPv6 Only
IPv4/IPv6 Translation Required
Experimental
IPv6 Network
IPv6 Island
IPv6 Ocean
IPv6 - a small step for IP but a giant leap for Telcos
Early conclusion
Internet Growth
+ Wireless
+ Always-On
+ Info Soft
Appliances
Σ
Internet 2001 is a baby!
100 IP Adds/person!
IPv4
Finally
The longer the upgrade is
postponed, the costlier it will be
and the more complex the
transition will be !
(compared to
Why IPv6 is a Hot Story
• Y2K is Over; Media Needs a
New High-Tech Story
• Any Doomsday Scenario for the
Internet is Big News
–Denial of Service Attacks
• Internet Luminaries Are Talking
about IPv6 More
- Cerf, Dyson, etc.
The New Internet1 billion +
IP Evolution
Connected Devices
NCP
IPv4
100m
1969
19832000
2001
2002
2003
2004
IPv6 FORUM
Vint CERF
Honorary Chairman