International Telecommunication Union
Next Generation Services
and User Needs
Martin Potts
Martel
martin.potts@martel-consulting.ch
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
Geneva, 9-10 July 2003
ITU-T
The Dangers of Predicting the Future
“There is no reason for any individual to have a
computer in his home”
Ken Olsen, President of DEC (1977)
“640K ought to be enough for anybody”
Bill Gates
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
www.ngni.org
ITU-T
IST
NGNI
members
Topic
Working
Groups
MiniProjects
Results
Benchmarking
Reports
Roadmaps
Collective
Awareness
&
Dissemination
Standards
Input & Feedback
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
ITU-T
Roadmap: The Evolution of
Telecommunications Networks
 What do we want networks to do ?
 What are the factors that influence how
networks evolve ?
 What trends can be identified ?
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
ITU-T
What do we want networks to do ?
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
5
ITU-T
There are many suggestions of what future networks
should do better than they do today (eg. from ETSI, ITU,
companies, individuals, ...).
There is no common definition of a “Next Generation
Network”, but there is some general agreement that
they should support the following service models:
- support an increasingly networked society:
-> communication anywhere, anytime, using any medium
that is always online
-> seamless interoperability (devices and services are
platform-independent: eg. fixed / mobile, and telephone /
PDA / PC / Television) …… need for standards
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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Accessing the Internet - Today’s options
ITU-T
POTS
ISDN
Internet
Backbone
xDSL
Internet
Access
Points
Cable TV
IAP
(IAP)
Optical
ISP
Wireless
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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- bring services to customers in a way that is:
ITU-T
-> in accordance with the trend to separate the roles of the
various stakeholders involved, eg. Service Providers,
Network Providers, Content Providers
-> future-proof (the easy incorporation of new services and
network technologies)
- support levels of QoS
(in terms of delay, jitter, loss, reliability, availability)
- support security
- faster Internet access
(where is the bottleneck? … and is the problem really speed
or prioritisation?)
- be simpler/cheaper to operate/maintain/manage
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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ITU-T
What are the factors that influence
how networks evolve ?
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
9
Evolution Factors
ITU-T
User behaviour and
usage trends
General
technology
advancements
Evolution of core
and access networks
Society
Visions &
Scenarios
Economic
trends
Evolution of terminals
Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
challenges
Individual
technical
aspects
9-10 July 2003
Technology
development
Architecture
and
topology
Protocols
evolution
Management
……..
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
Evolution Factors
ITU-T
User behaviour and
usage trends
General
technology
advancements
Evolution of core
and access networks
Society
Visions &
Scenarios
Economic
trends
Evolution of terminals
Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
challenges
Individual
technical
aspects
9-10 July 2003
Technology
development
Architecture
and
topology
Protocols
evolution
Management
……..
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
11
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
- Telecommunications Service Evolution:
Digital networks:
Packet switching
Circuit switching
Optical fibre
Telex
Data:
Telegraphy
Telephony
low speed
high speed
Fax
Videoconference
Radio
Television
Mobile telephony
Paging
Colour Television
1847
9-10 July 2003
1877
1920
1930
1960
1975
1984
Telex
Broadband data
Packet switching
Circuit switching
Telemetry
Teletext
Fax
Internet
Web
E-mail
Telenewspaper
Telephony
Teleconference
Videoconference
Videotelephony
Mobile videophone
GSM, GPRS, UMTS
Mobile text (SMS)
MMS
Mobile fax
WAP
Mobile data
Mobile videotext
Paging
Stereo hi-fi sound
Colour television
Stereo television
HDTV
2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
12
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
- Increasing use of Internet-based services, but
demanding more than just Internet access
- Increasing emphasis on mobility and roaming
- Increasing use of peer-to-peer applications and group
communication
- End-user content creation
- Less-obtrusive hardware, that exploits the existence of
more embedded sensors and communication between
embedded devices
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
- Flexibility:
- same data to be available on different devices
- terminals and services to be transportable between
networks
- a “one-stop shop” for billing
- Services that are integrated, interactive, cost effective
(SMS!), easy to use and with filtering features
(Ambient Intelligence)
- Higher bandwidths (eg. for entertainment services,
gaming, …)
- QoS (availability, reliability, speed, synchronisation, …)
- Security
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T Broadband:
- Internet access capability is doubling every 2 years for
no increase in real cost to the end user
- A downstream throughput of 1 Mbit/s is now common for
many residential users – a rate which was unimaginable
for most people 10 years ago
- A similar increase over the next 10 years is expected
(predicted 70% broadband penetration in Western
Europe by 2010, up from 10% today)
… however, in parallel to wanting more bandwidth, users
are wanting to communicate without being physically
wired to the network
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
15
Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T Mobility:
- Public GSM access networks have been installed to
handle the huge demand for mobile telephony and
Internet access, but the bandwidth is low compared with
that available from a fixed access line
- GPRS and UMTS promise improvements, and the
addition of data to traditional voice services
(convergence ?) which is expected to lead to a range of
new services
- Ultra Wideband (155Mbit/s)
- Ad-hoc networks
WLAN is already emerging as a serious contender:
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
16
Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T
Mobility:
- Developed for the private LAN area, WLAN is a simple and
cheap technology that offers a bandwidth that even
exceeds what is available on many wireline connections
- WLANs are being installed by network operators to satisfy
Internet access in public “hot spots”, thereby blurring the
boundary between public and private networks
- WLANs are expected to generate about 10% of the
revenue of 2.5/3G systems (Analysys)
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
17
QoS
ITU-T
- The debate on QoS in the Internet has been running for more
than 10 years, but only the “easy” solutions are implemented.
3 Overprovisioning (only a solution for the backbone)
3 Exploiting the capabilities of the lower layers (MPLS)
? Priorities (DiffServ)
? Explicit signalling (RSVP)
? NSIS
- Is there a business model ?
- Who is willing to pay for it ?
- What services do we expect the Internet to carry ?
- The same service used on a different terminal, or transmitted
over a different access network, will require different QoS
values
- Can it be solved with adaptive applications ?
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
18
Ambient Intelligence
ITU-T
- Users are interested in ever more sophisticated devices
that inter-communicate, independent of the current
network to which they are attached, but the complexity
must be hidden
- NGNs should provide the basis for the transparent
provision and discovery of services that can be made
available in an ad-hoc manner locally or remote to a
dynamic group of customers. The criteria for service
discovery can be the physical or network position
(Location-Based Services), and can also exploit User
Profiling technology in order to allow for subjective and
community oriented discovery criteria
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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Ambient Intelligence
ITU-T
- Elaborate (composite) services can be provided to the user via
an intelligent service location and configuration mechanism.
A single query is translated automatically into a range of
service location requests which are in turn resolved.
This mechanism will further support the need for context
computing and stronger focus on the needs of the customer by
resolving service related complexity automatically.
Integrated
Network
“Get me to a hotel room”
2. Locate/book hotel
s
les
e
Wir
Service Discovery
Middleware
Customer
1.Locate customer
3. Locate/Inform
taxi
GPS
Ongoing
Get Position
9-10 July 2003
Hotel
5. Take Customer
to hotel
Ongoing
Give Position
TAXI
4. Pickup Customer
TAXI
movement
TAXI
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
Where is the intelligence nowadays ?
- Intelligence at the core is giving way to intelligence
at the edge, due to the performance capabilities of
network elements
- enables new services to be added quickly by
“anyone” (Internet Model)
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
21
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
Gradual transformation from vertically to
horizontally integrated networks and services
- the traditional “one-operator-does-it-all” is giving
way to specialist service providers operating on
specific network functionality layers (eg. dark fibre
providers, local access providers, content
providers, roaming brokers, …)
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
22
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
ACTORS
Service
User
Network
Customer Service
Provider
SERVICES
Applications
Advanced/complementary
services
Basic services
Network
Provider
9-10 July 2003
Bearer services
FUNCTIONS
End
Usage
Service
Brokerage /
Value-added
Service provision
Network supply
and operation
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
23
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
For more details of the separation of the roles of
Service Providers and Network Providers, and how
the interaction can be formalised through SLAs, see:
www.cadenus.org
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
24
Service Authority
Service
Directory
ITU-T
Service Types
Service Provider
Service
Mediator
SLA
Services
Access
Mediator
SLA
. AAA
. Directory/yellow pages
. Preferences lists
. Services menu
. User profile
. Terminal types
Service
Mediator
Services
. AAA
. Presentation
. Subscription
SLS
Resource
Resource
Mediator
Mediator
(per administrative
domain)
(per administrative domain)
SLS
Resource
Mediator
per administrative domain)
Network Controller
. Traffic engineering
. Terminal localisation
. Terminal capability
. Network capability
(per technology domain)
Network Controller
(per technology domain)
Network Controller
(per technology domain)
Access Network
Provider
Backbone Network
Provider
Next Administrative
Domain
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
25
User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
Service Providers are also “users”. They require:
- a fast and open service creation platform
- the capability to inform end-users of the services
that are available
- QoS guarantees from the network regarding
availability, throughput, delay, delay variation
(jitter), loss
- security
- the ability to adapt services according to the
available network QoS or device type/capabilities
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
26
Evolution Factors
ITU-T
User behaviour and
usage trends
General
technology
advancements
Evolution of core
and access networks
Society
Visions &
Scenarios
Economic
trends
Evolution of terminals
Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
challenges
Individual
technical
aspects
9-10 July 2003
Technology
development
Architecture
and
topology
Protocols
evolution
Management
……..
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
27
Wireless Market Trends

Europe: 2000-2001
• Overall ARPU
decreased by 30%
• Voice ARPU decreasing
Overstocked market
• Data ARPU increased
by 93%

Europe: 2002-2005
• With voice ARPU
diminishing, operators
will rely on VAS
deployment strategies
in order to keep growth
ARPU = Average Revenue Per User
9-10 July 2003
50
40
30
20
10
0
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Total ARPU
€/Month
Data ARPU
€/Month
%
Data_ARPU/To
tal_ARPU
2H
1
1H 99
20 9
2H 0
0
2
1Q 00
0
20
2Q 0
20 1
3Q 0
2 1
4Q 00
20 1
01
ITU-T
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total ARPU
€/Month
Data ARPU
€/Month
% Data
ARPU/Total
ARPU
Source: “Mobile@Ovum”, July 2002
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
28
Business Models, Societal and Economic/
Political Factors
ITU-T
The Value Network for Mobile Services
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
29
Evolution Factors
ITU-T
User behaviour and
usage trends
General
technology
advancements
Evolution of core
and access networks
Society
Visions &
Scenarios
Economic
trends
Evolution of terminals
Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges
Individual
technical
aspects
9-10 July 2003
Technology
development
Architecture
and
topology
Protocols
evolution
Management
……..
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
IP: Some Open Issues
ITU-T
Customer Perspective
Telephony, VoD, IP-VPN
Audio/video, broadcast, e-commerce
WWW, File transfer, Games,
On-line shopping,
E-mail, etc
Convergence
Mobility
QoS (especially inter-domain)
IP
Terminal proliferation
“Always on”
Encapsulation /
Integration
Security
Broadband access
IP over ?
PSTN/ISDN, MPLS, IP-net, etc
Encapsulation /
Convergence
9-10 July 2003
Optical network (DWDM)
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
31
Evolution Factors
ITU-T
User behaviour and
usage trends
General
technology
advancements
Evolution of core
and access networks
Society
Visions &
Scenarios
Economic
trends
Evolution of terminals
Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
challenges
Individual
technical
aspects
9-10 July 2003
Technology
development
Architecture
and
topology
Protocols
evolution
Management
……..
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
Conclusions
ITU-T
9-10 July 2003
Some user behaviour and usage trends have been identified
by the EU IST project NGN-Initiative
Some key requirements are for:
Interoperability
Convergence (onto the same terminals)
More sophistication (but hiding the complexity)
Broadband
Mobility
Peer-to-peer (user-generated content)
QoS
Security
Service and network separation will encourage innovative
services, but requires standards (see CADENUS project)
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
33
ITU-T
9-10 July 2003
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
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