From the Cave …
Well My Cave is wireless !
I Love
You
I Love
You Too !
Face of Terror
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
1G
2G
3G
10*4
10*9
10*38
Pioneers
Innovators
EveryOne,-thing
Email, FTP
WWW
Wireless, Streaming
Media, Peer-2-Peer
9.6 Kbps
33 Kbps
1 Mbps +-ON
ALWAYS
Gov. Internet
Public Internet
DIAL-UP INTERNET
Global Internet
• NCP Conception 1961
1969
• NCP Roll-Out
IP Conception 1972
IPv4 Roll-Out
IPv6
Conception
1983
1991
IPv6 Roll-Out2000
1969
1982
1982
Now!
Now!
1995-Now
IPv6 Technical Directorate
Chair: Jim Bound
Scott Bradner
Yanick
Pouffary
Brian Carpenter Steve Deering Christian Huitema Allison Mankin
Charlie Perkins Thomas Narten Erik Nordmark
Thomas Ecklund
IPv6 Technical Directorate
Francis Dupont Alain Durand Jack McCann Henk Steenman
Stephen Hayes
IvanoFinkelson
Guardini
Dale
Cyndi Jung
Peter Tattam
Stig Venas Carl Williams Brian Zill
Matt Crawford
Brian Haberman
Watch with a sense of humour
Some pictures can be shocking!
The IETF was divided on
the Future of the Internet !
Garage Mentality:
Band-aids, Kludges and Stop-gaps
The Packet Switching Technology is Suffering!
NAT EXPERTS created the NAT Roulette
NATs: Peeping Holes
NATs: Holes for Shipworm Culture
NAT over NAT
Unique Addresses?
Peer-to-peer Model?
Peer-to-peer Traversal Model?
Always-On Service
Is Internet Security Desired by Governments?
Big Brother Is
WatchingYou!
Hackers Too!
Deering
Deering
´s Peering
´s WineHitchcocks?
Glass ?
Application Independence
Peer-2-Peer
From Client
Species
/ Server
workModel
betterto
together!
Server
Client
Imagine IPv4 had 128 bit Address Space
No second chance to fix the Internet!
Imagine NATs were Introduced in 1991
www
The WEB would have not been successful!
Can you do 3 things
in ONE GO?
e2e Communication
e2e Security
Mobility
The Internet Has Met Its Enemy!
It‘s called
!
UNEVEN DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
USA 54%
PHONE NETWORK:
ROW
INTERNET USERS:
< 3%
EU, JP
1.228%
Billion
WORLD
8%
-> 20%
0.5 Billion -> 8%
INTERNET HOSTS: 137 M Hosts -> 2%
NO e2e : NOBODY KNOWS !
"The Internet has met its enemy, and its name is QoS"
Internet Growth Laws
G. Moor’s law:
P = P2
G. Gilder’s law:
B =B3
R. Metcalfe’s law:
V =V2
IP law:
IPv6 =IPv4n
The Internet is falling apart
Chicken & Egg ?
Impossible Triangle ?
IPv6 is a young lady?
IPv6
NAT
IPv4
QoS
...
Flow Bits?
Dynamic Routing
...
Reliability
Simplicity
Flexible
Renumbering
Transition
Multicast v6
e2e Security
Tool Box
Mobile IPv6
Autoconfiguration
End-2-end
Plug & Ping
Transparency
...
May be QoS?
...
Return to
Simplicity
M&A
Hierachy
No
Push v6
Flag Day
Seamless
e-Money
Mobility
Low Cost
VoIP, P2P, 3G
Admin & Manage
Phase-Out NATs
Homo-Computiens
Homo-Coms
Homo-Holes
Homo-Ambiants
3G
Bell-Head
NAT-Head
2G
NET-Head
Legacy
P2P/Push
100% IPv6 readiness by 2005
• Prime Mister of
Japan Yoshiro Mori
• Korean MIC
followed Japan Feb
23, 2001
• The 7th Japan-China
Regular Bilateral
Consultation Dec 2001
The European Commission Formed
an IPv6 Task Force in March 2001
• Commissioner
Erkki Liikanen
• Recommendations
Reports Jan 2002
www.ipv6tf.org
• 6NET & Euro6IX
Large.Scale Testbeds
34 M€
Clear roadmap
towards IPv6
!
IPv6
Deployment
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Successful
Complete Failure
Restored
Address
Transparency e-2-e
IPsec
e-2-e works
FOG
Clears!
Issues
Intranet, Proxies
& Firewalls
may remain
Recycling
IP Addresses
Exhaustion
NAT-over-NAT
Limited
Broken
Noticeable
Fog
Permanet
Thick Fog
Generalised
use of
NAPT, RSIP?
NATs between
even ISPs
Early conclusion
Internet Growth
+ Wireless
+ Always-On
+ Info Soft
Appliances
Σ
Internet 2002 is still a baby!
100 IP Adds/person!
•
•
•
•
Volume
The BIG Questions!
Why √
When ?
Where ?
What is the cost ?
Total
IPv6
IPv4
Time
IPv6 should be in operation before 2004
IPv4 exhaustion dates
Global demand for Cellular and ADSL/Cable modem - exhaustion dates
(ICANNAdhoc
IPv6 AdoptionTimeline WORLD
(A pragmatic projection)
2000
2000
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2001
2001
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2002
2002
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2003
2003
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2004
2004
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2005
2005
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2006
2006
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2007
2007
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
Q
Q
44
Early adopters
Appl. Porting -> Duration 3+ yrs.
ISP adoption -> Dur. 3+ yrs.
Consumer adoption -> Dur. 5+ yrs.
Enterprise adopt. -> 3+ yrs.
IPv6 AdoptionTimeline - ASIA(A
pragmatic projection)
2000
2000
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2001
2001
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2002
2002
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2003
2003
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2004
2004
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2005
2005
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2006
2006
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2007
2007
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Early adopters
Appl. Porting -> Duration 3+ yrs.
ISP adoption -> Dur. 3+ yrs.
Consumer adoption -> Dur. 5+ yrs.
Enterprise adopt. -> 3+ yrs.
Asia
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
Q
Q
44
IPv6 Adoption Timeline EUROPE
(A pragmatic projection)
2000
2000
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2001
2001
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2002
2002
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2003
2003
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2004
2004
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2005
2005
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2006
2006
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2007
2007
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
Q
Q
44
Early adopters
Appl. Porting -> Duration 3+ yrs.
ISP adoption -> Dur. 3+ yrs.
Consumer adoption -> Dur. 5+ yrs.
Enterprise adopt. -> 3+ yrs.
Asia Europe
IPv6 Adoption Timeline AMERICAS
(A pragmatic projection)
2000
2000
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2001
2001
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2002
2002
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2003
2003
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2004
2004
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2005
2005
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2006
2006
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
2007
2007
Q
Q
44
Q
Q
11
Q
Q
22
Q
Q
33
Q
Q
44
Early adopters
Appl. Porting -> Duration 3+ yrs.
ISP adoption -> Dur. 3+ yrs.
Consumer adoption -> Dur. 5+ yrs.
Enterprise adopt. -> 3+ yrs.
Asia Europe Americas
The Lobster Syndrom!
At the
beginning,
it feels
Comfortable!
The New Internet1 billion +
IP Evolution
Connected Devices
NCP
IPv4
100m
1969
1983 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Putting The Internet Back Together!