How Robust are ScienceBased Disaster
Preparedness Strategies?
Lessons from Western
Sumatra
Positive benefits of
science are not reaching
the most vulnerable
Void exists in the
mitigation arena
Megathrust Ruptures- Sumatran Subduction Zone
Simulations of tsunami
inundation reveal west
coast of Sumatra under
tsunami threat from
Mentawai segment
rupture
An individuals survival will be
influenced strongly by the degree to
which they are prepared to respond.
Risk Perception and Preparedness Framework
Attitudes
and
Beliefs
Sense of
Community
Sense of
Control
Previous
Experience
Critical
Awareness
Exposure
Awareness
Raising
Understanding
of Hazard
Risk
Perception
Outcome
Expectancy
Adjustment
Adoption/
Preparation
Intentions
Timing of
Hazard
Activity
Perceived
Responsibility Adapted from
Enders et al.,
2001
Preparedness Measure
Padang
Bengkulu
Participated in a tsunami evacuation drill.
21%
54%
Located long-term emergency shelter/ contact in case of evacuation.
51%
63%
Found out if the area in which you live is under threat from tsunami
hazard.
71%
74%
Practised what to do in the event of a tsunami hazard at home.
27%
58%
Attended tsunami workshop/ seminars.
21%
47%
Prepared a run-bag.
72%
86%
Practised travelling along an evacuation route.
30%
45%
Attitudes
and
Beliefs
Previous
Experience
Critical
Awareness
Exposure
Awareness
Raising
Understanding
of Hazard
Sense of
Community
Sense of
Control
77% Padang
71% Bengkulu
Risk
Perception
Outcome
Expectancy
Adjustment
Adoption/
Preparation
Intentions
Timing of
Hazard
Activity
Perceived
Responsibility
Exposure to Awareness and Preparedness Raising
100
80
Percentage
60
40
20
Percentage
Time to Evacuate if Experience a Large Earthquake
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Padang
Bengkulu
Attitudes
and
Beliefs
Sense of
Community
Sense of
Control
Previous
Experience
Critical
Awareness
Exposure
Awareness
Raising
Understanding
of Hazard
Risk
Perception
Outcome
Expectancy
Adjustment
Adoption/
Preparation
Intentions
Timing of
Hazard
Activity
Perceived
Responsibility
Attitude Statement
Respondents Agreed
Padang
Bengkulu
People in Padang/ Bengkulu can be evacuated before an
earthquake.
67%
71%
A magnitude 8 earthquake has never occurred in Sumatra.
54%
48%
People in this city can be evacuated before a tsunami.
77%
90%
The 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami only killed people in
Indonesia.
30%
26%
Tsunamis have never affected Padang /Bengkulu before.
50%
56%
Indonesia is the only place in the world threatened by
earthquakes.
54%
32%
Tsunamis did not affect Sumatra before 2004.
59%
60%
It is possible for scientists to tell where and when an
earthquake will happen.
44%
55%
Previous Experience
Attitudes
and
Beliefs
Sense of
Community
Sense of
Control
Previous
Experience
Critical
Awareness
Exposure
Awareness
Raising
Understanding
of Hazard
Risk
Perception
Outcome
Expectancy
Adjustment
Adoption/
Preparation
Intentions
Timing of
Hazard
Activity
Perceived
Responsibility
Attitudes
and
Beliefs
Sense of
Community
Sense of
Control
Previous
Experience
Critical
Awareness
Exposure
Awareness
Raising
Understanding
of Hazard
Risk
Perception
Outcome
Expectancy
Adjustment
Adoption/
Preparation
Intentions
Timing of
Hazard
Activity
Perceived
Responsibility
• 23/12/07 prediction made by Brazilian “scientist”
• Event heavily publicised in media
• High level of critical awareness about the prediction
• Intense period of activity 2 weeks prior to 23/12/07
• Numerous evacuation drills and simulations
organised.
• Leaflets distributed by helicopters.
• Javanese drums distributed community leaders.
• 22nd December government distributed
brochures about tsunami preparedness by
helicopter.
• Bengkulu “ghost town” 23/12/07.
“Two days before the date (23/12/07) this town was almost empty. People went
away to higher lands in some of the sub-districts in Bengkulu and there were
some robberies because people had left their homes”
“ Most of the government left the town first, they went away to
other provinces just before 23/12/07”
“ Bengkulu was just like a ghost town in December 23rd”
“ The city government believed the prediction and it made
us in doubt about the prediction as first we didn’t believe
but the city government believed as they prepared
evacuations and tents. This made us in doubt”
“ ...there was panic, people stayed away from the beach for two
weeks after the prediction (23/12/07)......because people had to
live on high ground they got sick. There are many mosquitoes
there and it rains heavily”
“ I don’t think the government handled the situation
very well..........it was an issue for a day, a one-hitwonder. I see some of the evacuation signs are
already broken. They don’t even give the workshops
anymore, they did before 23rd December, but that’s
it..................this doesn’t mean I don’t support the
government but I wish they would do it sustainably,
not go crazy like they did and just stop”
Does this matter?
• Public response to unscientific information.
• Could undermine the credibility of scientific
research/ scientists.
• Sustainable awareness and preparedness
initiatives important.
• Could have had an impact upon respondents
understanding of earthquake and tsunami hazard.
Respondents Agreed
Attitude Statement
Padang
Bengkulu
People in Padang/ Bengkulu can be evacuated before an
earthquake.
67%
71%
A magnitude 8 earthquake has never occurred in Sumatra.
54%
48%
People in this city can be evacuated before a tsunami.
77%
90%
The 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami only killed people in
Indonesia.
30%
26%
Tsunamis have never affected Padang/Bengkulu before.
50%
56%
Indonesia is the only place in the world threatened by
earthquakes.
54%
32%
Tsunamis did not affect Sumatra before 2004.
59%
60%
It is possible for scientists to tell where and when an
earthquake will happen.
44%
55%
Av. percentage of number measures adopted
by respondents:
Padang 42%
Bengkulu 63%
n= 210
n= 73
Which Hazard Is discussed
most by members of your
community?
Tsunamis are too destructive to
bother preparing for.
• Agree Padang: 82%
• Agree Bengkulu: 85%