1 THE GLOBAL FUND TO FIGHT AIDS, TUBERCULOSIS AND MALARIA: POTENTIAL, PROGRESS AND CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE 2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. Thursday, July 1, 2004 Peter G. Peterson Conference Center (IIE) 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. [TRANSCRIPT PREPARED FROM A TAPE RECORDING.] 2 FEATURING Steven Radelet Senior Fellow Center for Global Development WITH COMMENTS FROM Anil Soni Executive Director, Friends of the Global Fight Former Advisor to the Executive Director Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria And moderator Ruth Levine Senior Fellow Global Health Policy Research Network Center for Global Development 3 MS. LEVINE: Welcome to this session. We're very pleased to have you here. We're sorry, there doesn't look like there are quite enough chairs, but I think that situation is being worked out. I'm Ruth Levine, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, and I lead the Global Health Policy Research Network at the Center. Let me just start by saying a couple of words about CGD for those of you who are not yet familiar with our relatively young institution, and then immediately turn to Steve Radelet. He will present the highlights from the paper, which I think has been made available to all of you, and then Anil Soni will be asked to make some comments, both on the paper and then more generally about where things stand in the Fund. The Center for Global Development is a relative newcomer to the community of think tanks on Massachusetts Avenue. We were incubated by the Institute for International Economics, which is where you currently are. Our mandate is to conduct policy research and share the knowledge that's generated from that around questions of how the policies of rich countries affect the prospects for development of poor countries. That is a very broad mandate as I'm sure all of you can imagine, and covers development aid, development aid effectiveness, debt, migration policy, trade policy and related topics. We have been very fortunate to have been able to make some significant contributions in the short period of time that we've been in existence, which is about two-and-a-half years, particularly in the area of development aid effectiveness, and instrumental in that has been the work of Steve Radelet. Steve is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, and previously was Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Department of the Treasury. The work that you're going to hear about today and that you have available to you is an interesting take on the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. It's not about, in a sense, the direct question of whether the Global Fund is making a difference in the epidemiology, in the transmission patterns, in the treatment and care of people who are affected by those ailments. It's about whether the Global Fund is achieving its--and what the prospects are for the Global Fund to achieve its aims to be a different sort and a better sort, perhaps, of development aid delivery mechanism. It was quite explicitly set up with an aim to help to solve some of the problems, the chronic persistent problems that have been observed with more traditional forms of development assistance. So that's the angle that Steve looked at and we'll discuss today. So I'm going to turn it over to Steve. 4 MR. RADELET: Welcome to everybody. Thanks for coming. I'm really glad that you're here. As Ruth mentioned, what I'm going to try to do today is talk about an analysis that I've been doing on the Global Fund as an aid delivery mechanism, not on health aspects. If you're interested in talking about what kind of treatment they should be using for malaria, read the Lancet. Don't talk to me because I don't know anything about that. Not that I know much more about foreign aid institutions, but a little bit more than I know about malaria and TB and AIDS. The idea here is to think about the Global Fund at this stage, two years, two-and-a-half years into its existence, as an aid delivery mechanism and what's going well and what's not going well. It's too early to do an analysis of its achievements in terms of cost benefit analysis or anything along those lines, but it's not too early to begin to ask some questions about what seems to be going well, what's not, what the big concerns are and what some of the big questions are that need to be asked. So that's my approach. I want to thank the William and Flora T. Hewlett Foundation for providing for this. This was not funded by the Global Fund. I was not working for them. I was working in cooperation with them, but this was an independent analysis of their operations. I guess the bottom line is that in my view the Global Fund has great potential in two dimensions. One is to provide significant resources to finance the fight against these three big diseases which are killing 6 million people a year, every year, with a large percentage of them in Africa. And it has enormous potential to leverage more funding in that fight. The second dimension where it has great potential is to influence how we think about foreign aid because it is structured in a very different way from most aid delivery mechanisms, and a lot of the assumptions underlying--or challenges a lot of the assumptions underlying any other aid delivery mechanisms, and it's really that latter question that I want to focus on here today. My own view is that it's come very far in two years from a start-up organization literally from scratch, where there weren't even offices just over two years ago, much less workers or people in the field in the recipient countries that knew what was going on. I think it's come a very long way. At the same time I think it faces very significant challenges. Its programs are beginning to work quite well in some countries. In other countries, they're doing okay. In other countries they're not working particularly well at all. There are a number of significant challenges that I want to go through, but I believe with some modifications and some changes that this can be a really effective and important organization, and it's worth our very strong support going forward. 5 Let me start by talking about some of the key differences between the Global Fund and other aid mechanisms, and I think this is really quite central to what we want to talk about. First of all, Number 1, this is a recipient driven approach. They really take the idea of a participatory country ownership approach very seriously, not just at the level of rhetoric that some countries do, but they take it very seriously. Whether that is the appropriate model in all countries or not I think is an open question, but they definitely take the idea of participation and recipient-led and driven approaches very strongly. The idea is to engender country ownership and to create stronger incentives for good performance, and to increase capacity on the ground. If the recipients are in the lead, that's going to help them to develop their capacity to think through what a good program would look like and how to implement it more on the ground. That approach, we should note right at the front, takes time. There is absolutely no way that you can have a participatory approach that is focused on building capacity on the ground among recipients without realizing that it's going to take a little bit of time to do that. But that's one key way that the Global Fund is quite different. Second is that it's a much smaller bureaucracy and a lighter touch than most aid organizations. There are 80 people who work for the Global Fund, all based in Geneva, no one in any recipient countries at all. And as we'll look at 80 people working on 122 countries, it would be hard to accuse them of having a very heavy, bloated bureaucracy. Let's put it that way. It's very small, very light touch, and I think actually perhaps a little bit too small and a little bit too light a touch. Third, that it operates as part of a network. It has a very focused specialized approach. It's a financing instrument and that's it. It does not implement programs. It does not provide technical assistance. It is not a full-fledged development agency the way many donors are. Instead it takes a different approach: We do one thing. We provide the financing. What that relies on is other actors to fill the other needs for technical assistance and for other kinds of things that are needed to make a whole program work, and again, that's a very different approach, to be very specialized and to take one element on. But it requires other partners in this network to take on other parts. It's a public/private partnership in terms of its board structure, in terms of people on the ground. The Global Fund is not a UN agency. A lot of people think it is. It is not. It is not a multilateral organization. It's a foundation founded under Swiss law in Geneva. It's a private foundation but it takes a lot of its funding, most of its funding from governments, but it also takes funding from private corporations, and its board structure is that way as well. There are 6 governments, both recipient and donor governments represented on the board, as well as people from NGOs, people from foundations and people from private corporations. So it's very mixed in terms of the board, and also on the ground. Proposals are put together by a group called the Country Coordinating Mechanism, which also represents government, nongovernment, private corporations, foundations, donors. So it's a real mix in a true public/private partnership. Fifth, it's performance based, or it hopes to be. It's a little early to tell, although the early signs I think are pretty good, performance based in the sense that money follows results, and programs that are going to work well will get continued financing, and those that don't work well will reduce their financing. We'll look at that a little bit more in depth. And lastly, it's very transparent and open. It's remarkable actually what's on their website. You can get anything off their website, much more than any other donor agency. You can get any proposal that's been approved. You can find out what's going on in any country. You can find out who has donated how much money. You can find out how much they've spent in any country by spending 10 minutes on their website. Board documents are all open to the public. They're open for critique. There's a lot of openness and transparency in this organization that doesn't exist in most aid agencies, and I think that's a good thing. Those are some of the ways that it's different from most aid agencies. Let's take a quick look at where things are. At this stage they've got programs, approved proposals now in 129 countries. It was 122 until yesterday. They've approved Round 4 as of yesterday, and Anil will update us on that. About 300 different programs in those countries, 300 different disease programs that they work on in those 129 countries. They've signed grant agreements in 89 countries and have begun disbursements in 85. Down at the bottom right-hand corner you can see that at this stage they've disbursed $423 million against those countries--or in those countries. So that's a snapshot of where things are in terms of the overall financing. Just quickly, the breakdown, about 60 percent of the funds have gone to HIV/AIDS, about 20 percent to malaria. This is percentage of disbursed funds. And about 15, 16 percent for TB. Regionally about half the money has gone to Africa in terms of the amount disbursed. For the amount under proposals, it's a little higher, but for under disbursed about half has gone to Africa and about a quarter to Latin America and a quarter to Asia. This is not by policy. They don't have specific policies that say this much money has to go to HIV or this much money has to go to Africa. This has been driven by the quality of the proposals that they have received. 7 By the way, every proposal does go through a Technical Review Committee, which is a committee of experts that verify the quality of the program before it is approved by the board, but more on that later. What's done so far? I think the key achievements were, Number 1, establishes new international organization from scratch with all new procedures, and offices in Geneva and all new procedures on the ground in 122 countries. That's a lot just to get an international organization going and going fairly quickly. So just getting up and going relatively smoothly is one achievement. They've raised a lot of awareness and raised funding. They've got pledges of $5.4 billion so far, actually received $3 billion as of the other day, and mostly that's additional in the sense that this is new money for HIV/AIDS as far as we can tell. It's not so much governments that were already doing AIDS programs for something else and now they've shifted it to the Global Fund. There's some of that, but a lot of it has been truly additional. There's much greater participation in the recipient countries in terms of efforts to fight the disease than had previously been the case, and the people that I have spoken to on the ground in the countries that I've visited have used words like "revolutionary," "empowering" and "path breaking" in terms of reaching out to NGOs, to civil society, to groups outside the government that often feel marginalized and excluded, and getting them involved in this process. There's no question there's been a big change there. Other achievements, it's very flexible I think and adaptive. It does have the capacity to co-finance SWAps, sector-wide adjustment approaches, to finance budget supports or to do projects. It can finance current costs as well as investment costs. It's very flexible or it has the potential to be a very flexible mechanism. It's begun to use its big leverage to do other things that are based on it size. It's reached agreement with the Clinton Foundation and others for bulk purchases of drugs and other commodities, to use its size to leverage better and cheaper prices. It's also negotiated a "Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit" with 8 other donors. And it's beginning to provide prevention and treatment and beginning to save lives in some countries. Anil will talk a little bit more about the progress that has actually been made in countries, but they're treating 4,000 TB patients in Ghana right now. There's about 3,000 people in Rwanda that are on antiretroviral treatment, and in other countries they're actually beginning to achieve the substantive goals. Let me turn though to some of the major challenges that I think they face, and here is really the meat of what I want to talk about. There are seven major challenges that I've got here 8 that I think the Global Fund is facing if it's really going to reach its promise and potential going forward. The first one is financial sustainability. I'm a little reluctant to talk about finances first. I actually like to talk about finances last usually. But in the 100 or more people that I interviewed as background for this project, this was the number one concern on almost everybody's mind as to whether the finances would be there. So I lead with it even though I'm actually more comfortable talking more about substance first and financial stability later. If they continue to be demand driven, that is, receive proposals from any country that meet the quality standards of the Technical Review Committee, and sort of put aside a budget constraint and just receive the proposals that were high quality, estimates vary, but it looks like the estimates vary between 3 to 8 billion dollars per year of high-quality proposals that would be approved by the Technical Review Committee. The 2004 receipts were about half of the lower end estimate of that. So they're beginning to enter a period here where it looks like they won't be able to finance all of the proposals that are recommended by this Technical Review Panel. But at the same time I hear from lots of people that the Global Fund is either bankrupt, or other people will say it's absolutely swimming in money, and I don't think either of those are actually correct characterizations. What they do have are sufficient funds on hand to fully and completely finance for the first two years every project that's been approved, every proposal that's been approved by the Board. So there is no proposal out there that has been approved where they will abruptly run out of money. So the idea that they're bankrupt in that sense is wrong. There is sufficient money on hand for the first two years. On the other hand, they're not swimming in money because they may not be able to fund any new proposals now for the next two years, after the round that was just approved yesterday, and Anil will tell us more about the Round 4, but it doesn't look like there's going to be sufficient financing for any new proposals perhaps for the next two years. And renewals is the third part. As I said, they've got enough money for the first two years for every program that's been approved, but most of those are five-year programs, and the board has approved the first two years, and they're beginning to come up for their renewal for their second phase which will be three years, and it's not clear that there will be sufficient funds available to finance the renewal phase for all of those programs. So let's look just really briefly at some of the financial issues. These are both the pledges and the contributions actually paid in by each of the major donors. This isn't all the donors. Concentrate, I guess, I'm more interested in the amount that's actually been paid to date in the 9 right-hand column. The United States is the largest, as of the other day. Secretary Thompson I think brought a check with him to Geneva for about 360 million, so as of today the United States has actually provided in the bank 982 million and is by far the largest donor. Some other donors have done quite well. France has contributed quite a large share. Italy has done quite well for its size. The European Commission has made some major contributions. Some other normally major donors have not contributed very much. Japan has contributed just 7 percent so far, which is much lower than its normal share for most international organizations, and Germany 3 percent, and several other countries have not contributed quite as much. So there's a variety here of contributions. The issue for the United States, the U.S. has provided a lot of the funding so far, but the Bush administration is proposing cutting that funding way back, and I'll come back to that in a minute, but so far they've provided quite a lot, but it looks like it's going to be cut back going forward. This is just a quick summary of commitments and available finance. This is on this issue of are they bankrupt or are they swimming in money? The top shows the commitments so far. As of yesterday, they've approved $3 billion worth of proposals, and this year later in the year, as the first renewals come up, they expect to have about 300 million in renewals. So the commitments by the end of this year will be $3.3 billion. On the bottom, how much money do they have to meet that? Well, they've got $3.4 billion, almost exactly the amount needed to finance what they have already approved. Now, because they're a private foundation and not a multilateral agency, they have no way to be absolutely certain, to be certain that donor funding in the future will be what it is now. There are not contributions that each country has agreed to make, 20 percent, 30 percent of the funding over time. Not at all. It is absolutely voluntary. So because of that, they need to be much more risk averse than most other donors. They don't have Congress or other contributors that have said absolutely certain what they will contribute. It's all voluntary. But on the other hand they need to give the recipients certainty about their programs. You cannot have a recipient start an antiretroviral program and not be sure that next year there will or will not be the money. So the board has taken a position that they will approve the proposals only if they've got either the cash on hand or pledges coming in for this year, and they will only approve proposals up to that amount, which I think is a relatively prudent way to go. What that means is that the cash is going to be on hand before they disburse it. So this is set up it will always have large amounts of cash on hand. And that's consistent with the idea of 10 the cash following performance. We've got the cash. Only when you perform and actually meet your benchmarks will the money be disbursed. But it gives the recipient the confidence that the money is there. What that means is that the Global Fund will always have some cash on hand. What they've got on hand, the $3 billion, 3.4 by the end of this year, is precisely what they need to meet the commitments that they've already made for proposals that are approved. But it gives them absolutely nothing, or not much going forward for new proposals or for renewals, and that's where it kicks in next year. On the top we've got the commitments next year. It looks like for the two-year programs now in place that come up for renewal, there will be a need for about $1.4 billion, but pledges are only .9 at this point, which means there will be a shortfall next year of half a billion dollars. If that remains the same, if there are no additional pledges and receipts by next year, there will not be enough money to renew all the programs that have been approved for their second phase, which means they would have to begin to cut back some of those programs. In the third column in '06, you see the problem gets a little bit bigger. And you see the line on the top where I've got "new proposals," I've got nothing. So this is before funding any new proposals at all. This is where this debate comes. Some people say, "Well, they've got all this cash on hand. They're swimming in cash." Well, that stems from this idea that you need to make the commitments up front and be certain of the money before you disburse it, but at the same time some people say they're bankrupt. Well, they're not bankrupt, but they don't really have enough money going forward to ensure that they can renew the programs that have already been approved for their second phase or we think will be approved for the second phase, or for new proposals. So that's where the financing issue comes. I think that the U.S. position on this is absolutely going to be central going forward. The U.S. has said that it would fund up to one third of the amounts that other donors put in, and so far it has done exactly that, but the administration wants to cut its funding back to $200 million for next year. That would mean that total global--if it is one third of the total, 200 million times three would be $600 million, which is a smaller Global Fund than we have today. My own view is that the allocation that we have between this program and PEPFAR, I think they're both important, they both need support, but I think the administration's proposal gives far too much on its bilateral program and not enough here on the Global Fund, but we can talk more about that going forward. Anyway, that's the first challenge. 11 Second is balancing the tension between the idea of country ownership with a light administrative touch and speed. Lots of concerns about the Global Fund is too slow. Well, if you're going to rely on a country-led, recipient-led approach, as I mentioned earlier, that's going to take some time, but at the same time this is an urgent problem. We can't wait forever and we need to get programs going and going fairly quickly. So there's been a lot of concern about the speed. And in some countries it's gone reasonably well, but I think it's true, in other countries it's been very slow. I think it has been too slow and the pace of disbursement--of approving programs and getting money out on the ground really does need to improve. There's some evidence that it has begun to improve. Here we show a table that has the first half, if you will, of one measure of pace, which is the time between the board approval and the first disbursement. The next slide I'll look at the pace of disbursements once they get started, but this is the time between board approval and the first disbursement. Overall it's taken 339 days on average, for the--this is looking at the 150 or so grants that are already disbursing, and it's take 280 days on average between the board approval and actually signing the grants, and an average of 59 days, about 2 months, between the time of the grant signing and the first disbursement. The bottom breaks that up by principal recipient, that last part, the 59 days. And if the government is a principal recipient, it's taken even longer, 72 days on average between grant signing and the first disbursement. The UNDP, which is one of the major principal recipients, 37 days, and others, the NGOs, civil society, 41 days. Then I break that up between the three rounds. As you can see, Round 1 it was really slow, 434 days on average. That's not surprising. This is a brand new organization. When the first round was approved, there were very few people that were even working for the Global Fund at that point. I think the board kind of rushed to approve its first set of approvals in April of '02. They didn't even hire an executive director until July. So it's not surprising that the first round took a little while because they were a little quick off the gun I think to approve that first round, and it took a long time. The second round has been much faster and the third round, although there have only been a few proposals that--or programs that are disbursing, has been even faster still. So that's the good news, is that the time taken has improved steadily by each round, and so there's definite progress there. But I still think that these numbers are pretty slow. You also see this striking pattern that I found at the bottom, that when the government is the principal recipient, when the money is going through government agencies, the process is much slower than if there are other recipients. I think Round 2 is the interesting one to look at, 12 probably the most informative, 69 days between the grant signing and first disbursement for the government, 26 for UNDP, 24 for others. So there's a significant difference there. The second half on disbursements is the disbursements--once first disbursement actually happens. So we've got a program. We're beginning to disburse. Now what's the speed look like? We've got a two-year timeframe for this program. How are we doing in terms of actually disbursing the funds once the program gets going? Here the news is much better and they're basically more or less on track. For all of the grants that are disbursing so far, 38 percent of the funds have been disbursed and 40 percent of the time period has gone by of a two-year time period. So this is a simple measure of how much money has been disbursed, how much time has gone by. So for a two-year program, you'd expect after one year that half the money would be disbursed. It would be better if we could gage it against what was scheduled to be disbursed, but we don't have that information, at least I don't. But they're basically on track once the disbursements start, and there is some new evidence that just came out this week that shows that this varies actually by performance, that for the programs that are meeting their benchmarks disbursements is moving quickly. For programs that are not meeting their benchmarks, they're much slower, which is what we had hoped, and Anil has some information on that. But again, you get a difference by the principal recipient. When governments are the principal recipient, they are 6 percentage points behind schedule, if you will, 6 percentage points of the two-year period. The other recipients are 6 percentage points or four percentage points ahead of schedule. The difference between those is about 10 percentage points of a two-year period. 10 percentage points of a two-year-period is a couple of months. So if you combine my last slide where the government was about a month behind on the bottom in terms of getting to its first disbursement, and here once disbursement starts, they're another two, two-and-a-half months behind. When governments are the recipients of the Global Fund, they're about three-and-a-half months behind programs where the government is not the recipient, and these findings are statistically significant at a 5 percent level. There is a very strong difference so far in performance depending on who the recipient is. So how can we speed up this process? Right now the assessments of the principal recipients come after board approval. I think a lot of them should come before the board approval. The board essentially approves a proposal on its technical merits, but not whether the recipient has been assessed and has the capacity to actually implement the program. That comes 13 later, and I think one way to speed that up would be to try to do those before board approval. There are some issues around that, but I think that would help speed things up. Second, we can penalize or give rewards to the local fund agents for slow assessments and reward them for fast ones. The local fund agents are groups hired by consulting firms, hired by-or accounting firms mostly--hired by the Global Fund as their agent in-country to do assessments of the recipients on their capacity to implement programs, on their procurement abilities, on their financial accounting methods, and on their substantive results. But right now the incentive structure around the local fund agents are rather screwy and they are not penalized or rewarded for slower or faster performance. These assessments of the recipients are one of the big reasons for the very slow pace of getting to disbursements, and so I think to actually introduce some financial incentives to these guys--if you do the assessments faster, you get paid more; if you do them slower, you get paid less--would be a step in the right direction. Another more radical would be to replace these local fund agents. Instead of one office in the recipient country that's responsible for doing all of these assessments, to have a global pool of assessors that specialize in procurement, another group, or a pool, a separate pool that specializes in fiduciary standards, a separate one that specializes in the capacity, the institutional capacity that--instead of one organization on the ground that tries to do all of the assessments at the local agent have a pool, a global pool, and when the global fund needs an assessment done in Rwanda or Senegal, they can draw from this pool of more specialized people to move more quickly and more efficiently. Finally, countries where there's only been the government as recipient is where things are going very slowly and I think a simple requirement to have more than one principal recipient and one of those nongovernment would help speed the process. That's the second challenge. Those are the slower ones. I'll go through these other ones a little more quickly. The third challenge is strengthening the CCM process. The CCM is the Country Coordinating Mechanism at the country level, which is this group with the government, the NGOs, civil society, the donors, that come together in an informal way but they formally take proposals from groups around the country, put these into one proposal and send it off to the Global Fund for funding. So it's a mechanism to get participatory approach and widespread engagement from lots of different groups in society. In some countries this process is working pretty well. In others it's not. There are lots of questions about how well this process is working. In some places the 14 government completely dominates it. In some places groups are shut out. In some places this group of people come together and they all fight with each other and don't make much progress. In others it works quite well to get a good proposal out, but once the proposal's done, they sort of stop meeting and don't take much initiative going forward. So there's been a lot of questions about how to make the CCMs work well. There's two proposals out there as to how to improve CCM performance. One is to tell them what to do. You've got to have 10 percent of your membership as government, 90 percent as nongovernment. You've got to have two people living with AIDS. You've got to have six donors on your committee. You've got three of this, you've got to have two of that, and we're going to tell you how this thing should be organized. This was actually debated at the Global Fund Board Meeting yesterday. I think it's actually a really bad idea for the Global Fund to tell countries how they should be organized and to put a bunch of rules and regulations in process. Instead, a second proposal which is being kicked around, which I support, would be to rate the CCMs in the way that Moody's or Standard & Poors rates a government for its bond rating, and you basically classify, have a ratings system and categorize the CCM system as an A, B or C, working very well, working moderately well, not working very well at all, and if you rate it as a high-functioning CCM, faster process, less oversight, move things much more quickly, less of an assessment. If you're a poorly rated one, much more oversight, slower process. So you begin to distinguish the recipients and reward the ones that are doing well and penalize the ones that are not doing well, and try to build in the incentives for better performance rather than just setting up some regulations of what this thing should look like and how it should operate. The fourth challenge, coordination of harmonization with this network. As I said, the Global Fund works as just a financing agent, as part of this broader network that includes other donors, includes the recipient countries, includes the local fund agents, each of which play a role in fighting the diseases, and the Global Fund is playing this role as a financing instrument only. But for a lot of countries, instead of being a light tough where they're going to have a light burden, the Global Fund has in fact introduced its whole new set of new requirements and is actually adding to the donor burden to say, "You've got to do things our way with our CCM, with our monitoring and evaluation systems, with our way of doing things." I don't think that that's what was intended or that it's particularly helpful. So they've got to figure out a way to harmonize these systems to work more in tandem with other donors, and to move more towards a more coordinated and more harmonized system. They are honestly trying to move in this direction where other donors are net. A lot of U.S. 15 bilateral programs don't do a particularly good job of this at all, and we also impose our own very stringent requirements to do things our own way, but I think that the Global Fund is at least trying to move towards a more harmonized system but has had a lot of difficulty doing so. How to do that depends on whether the system's already working well in some countries, in which case you can adapt those systems. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. In other countries where there aren't other donors then they're going to have to create the wheel because it doesn't exist. The Global Fund works--in 122 countries there's a lot of countries where there aren't any other donors working on HIV/AIDS, malaria or TB, and they've got to build the systems. It's not a coordination issue. It's a building issue. Or in countries where there are poor systems--and this is the difficult one--where there are a lot of donors working. They all have their own systems. There isn't much coordination or harmonization. So I think this is a real challenge going forward. Challenge Number 5 is a broader one, becoming an agent for change. There's a little bit of a problem in being just a financing agent. It works fine if financing is the only problem, but financing isn't the only problem in fighting this disease, and we're beginning to realize that more and more, that there are absorptive capacity issues, there's human resource problems. There's infrastructure problems. There's a whole range of issues out there, obviously, that financing alone, if you alleviate that constraint, which has been a big constraint, without paying attention to the other problems, then you're not going to get very far. There's two ways to approach that. One would be for the Global Fund to take on more of these roles, to supply technical assistance, to have people on the ground to try to fight all these problems. The problem with that is that's what a lot of other agencies are already doing, and the Global Fund would be just duplicating everyone else's efforts, so I don't think that's the right thing to do. But I also think they need to think more clearly about how they can use their leverage and their size to make other systems outside of financing work better. They've done that with this monitoring and evaluation framework that I mentioned earlier. They've done this with the Clinton Foundation and with others, but they need to think strategically about how they can use their leverage to help WHO work better, to help the World Bank work better, to help USAID PEPFAR work better in terms of everybody working better to better achieve their goals. The Global Fund has something that a lot of these other agencies don't have, money. And that brings people to the table, and if they can use that leverage in clever ways to get other parts of the system to work better, not to take over the other people's jobs, then you can make more 16 progress. Exactly how you do that, I don't know. But what I do know is it takes a strategy and it take thinking, and that requires time and resources and staff and effort to think about what that strategy is and to work with the other agencies, and they're really just beginning to do that. Sixth challenge--there's only seven, so I'm getting there--operating on performance based principles. Many have tried, few have succeeded. This is really critical though, because if they don't operate on performance based principles, they're dead. Without those you're not going to have the proper incentives. You're not going to be able to supply information on what programs work and which do not, and you're not going to be able to maintain the support of the donors. I think it's absolutely critical that they be performance based. It's not clear to me that they will be because when push comes to shove, the donors are going to be under a lot of pressure to continue to finance programs even if they're not performing particularly well. The early signs are, however, that the Global Fund will do well. It had one program in Ukraine that was not working very well, and they immediately took some pretty strong efforts to find a new principal recipient and get that program back up on its feet. So they sent out a pretty good signal that poor performance would not be rewarded, would in fact be penalized. But that is a huge issue for them going forward that remains to be seen exactly how they can do better. Just quickly, a couple things that they can do that other donors do not do. One is to give partial disbursements, and I believe this is what they will do. Most donors, if you make threequarters of the conditions, they're stuck. They have a dilemma. Do we give them the money or do we not give them the money? Because for most donors that's the choice. We're scheduled to give a disbursement. You've met three-quarters of the conditions. We've either got to give you the disbursement or we don't. Well, most donors opt in that circumstance to give you the disbursement, and the recipients quickly learn that they don't have to meet all of the conditions, they only have to meet three-quarters of the conditions, and it's a great way for performance to go down, and it happens in almost every donor agency. The Global Fund, as a new independent private foundation, can do things differently, and what they're, I think, moving to do is give partial disbursements. If you make three-quarters of the conditions, we'll give you three-quarters of the money, or something like that. That will create the incentives on the margin for much better performance, so it's a very subtle way that they can act differently from most donors that I think will improve the incentives. They can switch principal recipients on the ground more easily than many other donors can do. They can 17 do the CCM rating system that I talked about earlier. They can improve the local fund agent incentives, as I've mentioned before. Last challenge is the size of the secretariat. 80 people working on 122 countries and 227 grant agreements. Look, I'm all for being efficient, and I'm all for small bureaucratic costs, but 80 staff I think is too small for this organization. 19 country portfolio managers, 19 for 122 countries. That means they've got 12 grant agreements and 6.4 countries each, each. If you're a country portfolio person in the Global Fund you have to track 6 countries and 12 grant agreements. Now, just by contrast, the World Bank has about 12 people per country. [Laughter.] MR. RADELET: This is one person per 12 countries, or one person per six countries. Lean and mean is great, but frankly, if you're working on six different countries, one person, and you're the only person working on that country, that means by definition you've got five or six hours a week maybe to think about that country. It isn't much, and I think that raises a lot of issues about communication, about getting grant agreements done, about getting progress going. Going forward, when they get up to 300 grant agreements and a billion dollars disbursed per year, this will be an even bigger problem. This just shows disbursements and staff size for about 20 other organizations around the world, other development organizations, the Asian Development Bank; private banks, Bank of America; foundations, the Gates Foundation; Citigroup, Packard, DFID, which is the UK's aid agency, Ford Foundation. And I've got total number of staff and the funds disbursed for their budget in the second column, and then the ratio in the third column. The highest ratio, the highest number of the funds per staff there is the Inter-American Development Bank at 4.5. The Global Fund at the bottom is already 5. It's already much thinner than any of these organizations, private, public, foundation, in terms of its staff size per disbursement, for the money that's been disbursed as today. It has a ratio of 5. I don't know if you can see that at the bottom because the table's in the way, but the Global Fund, as of now the ratio is 5, and by the end of the year when they've disbursed a billion dollars, the ratio will be 12, about three times higher than any other organization on this list in terms of funds per staff. So it's very lean and mean, and I think too lean and mean, and that's one of the problems going on the ground. If they're going to think strategically, if they're going to improve the pace of disbursements, if they're going to deal with a lot of these challenges going forward, there has to be more than 80 people working for the Global Fund. 18 Let me finish just by looking at two possible ways to restructure operations on the ground to try to improve performance. One would be to do three things. Require at least two principal recipients in each country to rate the CCMs and replace the LFAs, basically package three of the things that I've talked about here today. So since the government principal recipients are not doing well, you insist that there be at least two principal recipients in each country, and I think that would help do a lot of things, ease bottlenecks and help expand capacity, lots of things. Second, you'd rate the CCMs as I talked about, and highly rated CCMs would be rewarded with better things and poorly rated ones would have more hurdles to jump through. And then you could replace the LFAs with a global pool of assessment experts. This is one way that they could on the margin change some of the operations in ways that I think would actually help speed disbursements and improve performance, and I think there's a lot to be said for this alternative, and there is some movement in this direction which I think is quite positive. A more radical change would be to reorganize the CCMs and the principal recipients into what I call grant coordinating agencies. Think of a foundation that you'd establish on the ground. Get rid of the CCM. The CCM becomes the board of this foundation. So you get a participatory approach of the government, NGOs, civil society in a formal structure as the board members of a foundation. This foundation can receive grants from the Global Fund, from the--not the World Bank because they only work with governments--from USAID, from the Gates Foundation, from whoever. So it acts as a coordinating mechanism in a formal structure, and then that foundation disburses grants to NGOs and civil society throughout the country. All smaller groups, church groups, civil society groups, NGOs, would make proposals to that foundation on the ground, not directly to the Global Fund, but to that foundation. That foundation would put those proposals together, submit them to the Global Fund, and that foundation would have the incentives for watching the performance for each of these subrecipients and making their performance work well in order to encourage its own funding going forward. So in effect you'd get rid of the CCMs, you'd get rid of the principal recipients, and you'd wrap them into this one organization. This is obviously a more radical approach. Whether it's a great idea or not, I'm not sure, but I think it's an idea sort of thinking out of the box a little bit of how things could be structured going forward. Let me stop here and just summarize. I think this thing has come a long way. In two years there's lots of promise, but I do think there are a lot of problems and some issues going forward that it needs to address. They are in the mood actually to adapt procedures. They are very flexible and very interested in getting a lot of outside critique, and that's a good thing. 19 Whether this particular model of participation and country ownership works or not going forward I think is an open question, but my view is that it deserves our support along with something like PEPFAR and the other approaches until we have a better idea of what the best way is to fight these diseases on the ground. As long as it can continue to adapt and be performance based, I think it deserves our support. Thank you very much. [Applause.] MS. LEVINE: Thank you, Steve, for a terrific presentation. Now, we'll ask Anil Soni to provide some comments, maybe about 15 minutes of comments, so we'll leave some time for questions at the end. Anil comes to us as Executive Director of the artfully named new organization, Friends of the Global Fight, which is a new nonprofit in Washington, and, Anil, maybe you'll tell us a little bit about the organization, and is well-known undoubtedly to most people in the room as formerly the senior adviser to the Executive Director of the Global Fund. So he knows these challenges inside out. And, Anil, I know you don't like challenges, but perhaps you can comment on some of them and give us any information you can about the recent board meeting of the Fund. MR. SONI: Sure. Thanks, Ruth. And let me just start by saying a very sincere thank you to Steve and to CGD for this study. The Fund, as Steve said, encourages constructive criticism, and I think that you've been a very fair and thoughtful critic in analysis that you've done, which is very thorough. Let me take two seconds to tell you about Friends of the Global Fight so you know where I'm coming from, and then I thought I would spend a few minutes giving you an update from the Global Fund, given that it just completed a board meeting yesterday, in fact, and respond, based on my experience with the Fund and my knowledge of the Fund, to the suggestions that Steve has made. In terms of an introduction, I have moved to Washington, D.C., to work with a great team of people here, including Jack Valenti, the outgoing CEO of the Motion Picture Association of America, and an organization that wants to add to advocacy efforts in Washington, D.C., around the fight against these three diseases and specifically in support of the Global Fund, given that it doesn't have representation, formal representation, itself in the United States and also work to engage Americans at-large in these issues, working with again the many organizations that are already doing that. There were a few documents out front at the start of the meeting. I don't have any slides, but we brought with us a number of documents in binders like this one that are out in front, which include a number of fact sheets about the Global Fund, including fact sheets about the latest round of proposals that was approved and the board meeting that just completed, as well as updates on resource mobilization, on disbursement and other such matters. It also includes results profiles about things that are happening on the ground today as a result of Global Fund grants, which I think many of you would find interesting. So please pick up a copy of that on your way out. Another thing that's out there is a report that the Fund itself is releasing at the International AIDS Conference in Bangkok, which is essentially its own self-assessment, at 30 months, of how it's doing, both at the country level and at the global level, and it includes again five particular country portraits about how grants are performing 30 months into the organization. So I have pitched the documents that are out front. The two subjects that I said that I'd like to address, the first one is an update on the Global Fund, particularly in light of the board meeting that just completed. I'll break that up into a few points. First, on new grants. The Fund has had four proposal rounds, as Steve mentioned. The fourth one was just approved in the last three days when the board met in Geneva. It's a very large round, valued at about a billion dollars over two years, so that the Global Fund's total portfolio is now $3 billion to actually 128 countries. It was 129 because it was Kosovo, and that's not really a country, so we pulled it back to 128, but it's $3 billion to 128 countries. And there's a few things that are significant about the grant that was just approved. One of them is actually that there was a huge amount of financing to malaria. Forty-two percent of the billion dollars that was just approved over two years is actually to malaria programs. And to give you an indication of the impact, there's been a lively debate about the transition in countries from the use of first- and second-line treatments for malaria to third-generation malaria treatments, particularly artemisinin-based derivative combination therapy or ACT. And there was an article published in the Lancet in January that made ultimately--I mean, it was a bit derisive-- but ultimately it made a very legitimate point, which is are we sure that this big new financing agency is putting money into the right drugs in countries where drug resistance is rising rapidly? Did it make the right decisions at the start? And even if it did, are we at a point now two years in where drug resistance has reached a level where, in fact, the Fund should be supporting ACT rather than first- or second-generation treatments? I'll come back to this, but the answer by the Fund was an emphatic, yes, let's take a look at that, and let's also make sure countries know this is a new mechanism. You can ask us for the more expensive drug. We will fund it. As a result, in rounds one through three, approvals of ACT were already 23 million or 22 million combination treatments over five years. By the way, that compares to 10- to 20,000 treatments in sub-Saharan Africa, on an annual basis, prior. So this was already a huge leap forward. In round three, that number has gone up to 145 million. So, from 22 million to now 145 million ACT treatments over a 5-year period, from 10- to 20,000 annually in sub-Saharan Africa-huge increase. I mean, this is really groundbreaking in terms of the global response to malaria. It, also, this new round has a lot of new commitments to HIV/AIDS and TB. For AIDS, in particular, there's a large component for antiretroviral therapy and over five years the Fund is now committed, with the proposals that it's approved, to providing treatment to 1.6 million people, which is an increase from about 600,000 prior to yesterday. So those are new grants. A second point, in terms of an update, is on performance. One of the points that Steve brought up, but that comes up repeatedly in Washington and among any donor capital is, is the Global Fund performing? It's 30 months old. Where are the results? Show me that 5 million lives have been saved. Well, quite honestly, as many of you will appreciate, changes in morbidity and mortality will take time, but the Fund is fairly at a point now where it should be saying is it working and is it not and also is money moving at the right pace? Let me just hit those points individually. On disbursement, Steve went through this in great detail and explained it with a clarity that I think is often lacking, but let me just give you another figure. The $423 million that have been disbursed to 154 grants in 85 countries, what that represents is basically 36 percent across those 154 grants, 36 percent of the 2-year commitment disbursed after about 40 percent of the 2year time span. So 36 percent of the commitment, 40 percent of the time span, that's about on track. So money is moving on track. It needs to move more quickly, but it gives you a different portrait on disbursement. What's happening on the ground? Well, in terms of anniversary grants, this is an analysis that the Global Fund just completed in advance of Bangkok. It said let's look at the grants that are a year old, as of the end of April, so we have a bit of time to do some analysis and then report when the world gathers to talk about the fight against AIDS and say what's happened. So the Fund looked at that exactly, and it found that 25 grants were a year old as of the end of April 2004--again, because of how young the organization is. And if you look at those 25 grants, it turns out that about 12 fall into a category where all of the targets, all of them, are being met or exceeded by quite a substantial margin. About eight of them have been rated a B, as opposed to an A, because they're reaching a lot of their targets, but not all of them, but they are generally on track for renewal, presumably, and five of them have been rated a C. In other words, these are not on track. Whether because of particular circumstances in the country or because performance has simply lagged, these are simply not on track. In general, I think people have been surprised by that--25 grants, 20 are on track, 5 or 20 percent aren't. That's fair, I think, if not better than fair after a year of implementation. Steve mentioned the disbursement rates vary across those. In fact, they do, and this is interesting. For the A grants, the disbursement rate is 97 percent. For the B grants, the disbursement rate is 65 percent. For the C grants, the disbursement rate is 21 percent. Again, there's more to prove in terms of whether or not the performance-based model works. And this isn't to suggest complacency about that question and that challenge, but it shows that disbursement is, in fact, varying, based on the performance of a grant--meaning that it is tracking to whether or not countries are achieving their targets, and therefore making legitimate their request for more money. Then, the question of, well, what's been achieved across those anniversary grants? I'm thrilled--thrilled--to say that 2.3 million people have received AIDS, TB and malaria services in 15 countries, those 25 grants, after a 1-year period, and that includes large numbers for some interventions, including voluntary counseling and testing for HIV, which has reached 80,000 people as a result of those grants, 45,000 people have been treated for DOTs TB treatment, and 340,000 insecticide-treated bed nets have been distributed. The number for antiretroviral treatment is much more modest. Across those grants, it's something like 4- to 5,000. Across all of the grants that are providing ARV therapy, my guess-and don't quote the Fund on this. You can quote me on it--but my guess is that it's probably in the order of 10- to 20,000, currently, given the disbursements that the Fund has made. I think that number is going to rise rapidly. I don't think it will rise as rapidly as expectations have been set, nor do I think it should because these things do take time to implement, but that is where antiretroviral therapy is likely to be at now. There's anecdotal evidence, but I'm going to stay off of that so I can be more brief, but there is good evidence of countries that are well-exceeding their targets, and that is in the binders outside. Last quick point of update is in terms of the needs of the Global Fund. In terms of 2004, the needs are relatively met with the current U.S. allocation, as well as the allocations from other countries, though the Fund needs to do better at bringing in money from non-U.S. donors to maximize the U.S. allocation. For 2005, the need is now a bit different than it was. The Fund was trying to raise, and said that its need was $3.6 billion for 2005. That basically was two new rounds at a billion dollars per round--that would be three new rounds over the course of 2004 and 2005--and then $1.6 billion required for renewals. Again, Steve had these numbers on his chart. The board, at its meeting, decided that the fifth round, round five, would be launched, at the earliest, after the November Board meeting. As a result of that, logistically, given the time it takes to launch a round, receive proposals, review proposals and approve them, it's unlikely that there is going to be two rounds in 2005. That drops the need in 2005 by a billion. And in addition to that, the renewal process has been refined, and I think this is actually a very good thing, and they are making sure that when countries are up for renewal, they really do have time behind them, from the point of disbursement, as opposed to from the point of a grant agreement being signed, and Steve pointed that out to you, so that they can make a case about performance. And as a result of that, the need has also fallen. So the need for 2005 now looks more like $2.4 billion. That's it for an update. In terms of responding now to essentially what Steve presented and what he has in his paper, my brief response is, yes, I think that what Steve has suggested is that this is a promising model, it's made good progress, there are real challenges, but the way to address those challenges and to reach the promise of the organization, as it was set out, is to consolidate support and provide greater support in a way that addresses those challenges, but also grows the organization. I think that's absolutely the right conclusion. It's timely that on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today, there is an article about the Global Fund and the President's emergency plan for AIDS relief. And in it the Fund's Executive Director, Richard Feachem, makes the quote that "The Fund has made extremely rapid progress in the right direction. On the other hand, it's nothing like enough." And I think that that in itself is an endorsement of what Steve said, which is there is progress, but there's a lot to do, both to address the challenges and also to keep on going in the right direction. The challenges specifically that Steve raised, I want to throw out some thoughts against the ones that he, the challenges that he provided and the suggested solutions to encourage a debate. And what I look forward to is, both in this setting, but also in other settings in which we sit down, we continue to talk about this to provide to the Fund very concrete ideas about how it can do its job better. There was one point that was made about financial stability. That was one of Steve's seven challenges. Let me just take a second to say financial stability is absolutely a challenge of the Fund, and it's at multiple levels. And this is really important. It's not that the Fund has a need in year and is it falling short, but one level of financial challenge is the fact that the Fund needs more money simply to sustain current programs, as Steve said. So, if it actually closed its door to new proposals today, for the rest of time, it actually needs a lot more money simply to sustain the programs that have started, which need to continue to place people on treatment and scale-up at the rate that they're now scaling up, and these are programs that require donor assistance. There's a second level of financial challenge, which is to sustain the current magnitude of the Fund, in terms of the overall fight against these three diseases. Whether that's $3 billion per year or $4 billion per year, it's not what was originally set out, but even to sustain that current level and current expectations, that's yet another challenge. And then beyond that, there's actually the challenge of, well, what should the Fund's place in the global fight be, and how do you sustain that over time, given that global needs are growing? I think that, in thinking about investment into these three diseases, it's very important to consider that if we did everything right today, and tomorrow, and the next day, needs for these diseases, financial needs, are going to continue to grow, and these are not countries that have the income or the development where they will be able to assume those financial requirements any time soon, not in two years, not in five years, not in ten years. And so we have to be prepared for real sustained commitment to this fight, but also increased commitment to this fight over the medium term if we are to achieve real progress in the fight against the diseases. I am just going to turn to the second challenge--there's a balance in the tension between country ownership with a light touch and speed--and talk about one of the specific suggestions that Steve made, which is to initiate assessments of principal recipients prior to approval. Just to say that that's pretty much already happening. Given that four rounds have now been approved, a number of principal recipients are going to be receiving ongoing grants in future rounds and, as a result of that, assessments are already in place and the overall pace is actually going to be much, much faster. One of the things that I was also very happy to see in the analysis you did, Steve, is, starting in round three, you actually see that the time from assessments being completed, a grant agreement being signed, to disbursement is now down to something like 10 days, which is a great achievement. And I think what it shows is that the Fund is trying to consolidate by making the assessments, completing them, and then making a disbursement, and as existing PRs become PRs of additional grants, that whole process will speed up. Other points were mentioned under that challenge about LFAs, which I'm going to come back to. The third challenge--finding the right balance between an exclusive focus on performance and a focus on process, especially the CCM process--let me again here give you an update from the board meeting. The board considered recommendations made by the Secretariat on how to improve CCMs, and they included a set of recommendations and also a set of proposed requirements of CCMs which would be tied to funding decisions. The board rejected the idea of requirements, consistent with Steve's logic, though that's a personal frustration to me because I think some of the requirements, for example, the Chair and the Vice-Chair of this committee not both being from government or the Chair and the ViceChair of the committee not being the principal recipient, to avoid a conflict of interest. I don't think those are difficult requirements. But the board felt that they were too prescriptive and said these aren't going to be requirements, but they will be recommendations. Well, the good news is that those are quite specific recommendations, and they send a strong signal. The bad news is that they're recommendations, not requirements, and so the actual accountability of them is murky. The board also decided, to Steve's second recommendation on this point, to consider, at its next meeting in November, a set of auditable standards for CCM performance, which is exactly the point that Steve made. So the board will consider standards that can be audited, that can be used to assess CCMs and give them a rating. I think the challenge that remains, though, is that even if you had those standards, the board has not yet adopted a system of incentives to be tied to those standards. So you can rate CCMs, but if it's a bad CCM, what does that mean? And the board has yet to figure that out. But I think it is progress, and I think it is consistent with the recommendations Steve was making. The fourth challenge, coordination and harmonization within the network, I just want to give you a few examples here. In Steve's paper, he said, "In countries with good systems, the Global Fund essentially should integrate with those systems." And I think it's trying to do that. In Ghana, with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, those have been the basis of the grant to Ghana and the request from Ghana. In Zambia, the Fund is actually giving money into the Central Board of Health, which actually maintains a healthwide basket. At the same time, it's giving money to NGOs, but the money it's giving to the government is largely going to an existing basket and therefore supporting the current system. Steve also said, "In countries without other donors, the Global Fund should take the lead because there is no precedent to build on." The Fund has also done that. An example is the Western Pacific Islands, 11 islands that are small enough that if you walk and close your eyes, you might fall off them. But the point is that these are islands where a nation-by-nation countrycoordinating mechanism wouldn't make any sense at all, and so they gathered together to create a multi-country mechanism and actually has a single set of requirements for that entire population. And, finally, Steve said, in countries where systems aren't working well, well, here's where the Fund has to be creative and not be tied to its own requirements, but at the same time, again, take a lead if the other donors aren't coming together. And I think that's happened in a couple of cases. One is in Mozambique, where a number of donors with the Fund sort of realized this is a country that's about to get an enormous amount of money from the U.S., from the Fund, from the World Bank, Multi-sector AIDS Program, and a number of other sources, and they all sat down at the table a few months ago and said, let's not all be sort of tied to our own requirements, but come up with a single model that works. They did that successfully, and I think that was a good example. Another is Kenya, which is an interesting story simply because, in Kenya, in the first round, the proposal from the government or from the CCM was rejected because a letter from two dozen NGOs was received saying, "We had nothing to do with this. So the NGOs that signed the proposal, they weren't us." And the Fund rejected that. In round two, it approved a proposal, and the NGOs said, "Well, now we're part of the process." But then in round three we heard from Kenyan NGOs who said, "Now, that the grant is approved, we're out of the process again because the CCM doesn't need to get together any more." And the Fund took that to the Minister of Health, who is a remarkable woman, and the Kenyan CCM has now been reformed to be 16 members, I think, only 3 of whom are government and 13 of whom are nongovernment. The nongovernment representatives select themselves, and they're now coordinating all of public health, all international financing into public health for Kenya. So the CCM has really risen above a particular mechanism for the Global Fund and become something that can be shared. Let me try to push through the rest. Fifth, moving beyond the narrow role of the financing instrument to a broader agent of change, again, agree with Steve that the Fund does need to think creatively about that, as does the board. And I think this is difficult. The board managed to create a Fund with consensus, after a lot of disagreement and debate about what it would do and what it wouldn't do. And they said it shouldn't be a procurement agent, and it shouldn't do this, and it shouldn't do this, that it only be a financing mechanism. I think we're at a point now where the opportunity for the Fund to do more is obvious, the ability for it to do so and its exact role is much less clear, but I think it is showing willingness to consider what it can do. Certainly, at the country level, the Fund is trying to play a catalytic role where performance is not up to par or where it sees opportunities that require other partners to come in and provide support. So the Secretariat created something called the Operational Partnership and Country Support Team, which does just that. And in the five anniversary grants that aren't performing, they're now saying, well, let's go to our partners and say, please, come and help and address why implementation is not occurring in this setting. At the global level, the Fund is also trying, but not necessarily with dedicated staff. The Clinton Foundation deal is a good example. And just to take a pause here, there's been a lot of skepticism about that, but I recently received information confirming that several millions of antiretroviral units purchased under that deal have actually been procured and are now being distributed at the country level. The $140 has been topped off by a 1- to 3-percent increase in handling at freight, for those of you who know procurement, but essentially there are per-patient, per-year antiretroviral packages being distributed, two pills per day, for $150 per year now, which I think is good news that I wanted to share. The Fund, though, is doing that very much currently on an ad-hoc basis, and I think it is a good recommendation to say that it should consider how to do that more explicitly. To the last points on performance-based operation, I think that the current evidence of performance-based disbursement, as Steve mentioned, are the Global Fund's response in the Ukraine, where basically a grant wasn't working, and the Fund said the money is stopped, and we're no longer going to stick with these PRs. I think another good example is the current anniversary grants that show that disbursement rates are, in fact, varied, depending on how performance is appearing. And I think the big sign of whether or not the system is going to truly work is the two-year decisions. But I certainly think the Fund is moving in the right direction because, even in its projections of what's required for 2-year renewals, it's actually saying it's not 100 percent of what's been requested in the proposals, but it's 85 percent. So it's already making a very clear signal that it's not going to approve all of it. I'm getting these looks I should stop. The last points, then, on LFAs, particularly, and also on the size of the Secretariat, let me do size of the Secretariat first and then say something about LFAs. The size of the Secretariat, good news-- again, an update from the Global Fund's board meeting--the board decided to increase the size of the Secretariat, as of yesterday, by 29 people who are all going to be portfolio managers. So that's good news. The size of the Secretariat is now going to be increased immediately by a third of its current size, and that's all going to be dedicated towards managing an extremely large grant portfolio. So they're listening, Steve. The suggestion Steve made about possible ways to package some of these recommendations, in terms of alternative structures in recipient countries--my two cents. The first one, where you suggested two PRs in each country rate the CCMs, discontinue the LFAs. Two PRs per country, absolutely. I think that's a fantastic idea, and I think that the Fund is trying to move in that direction. If you look at their Bangkok report-- which again some of you have; others will pick up on your way out--they're trying now to be very clear that there are different models about how money can be moved in countries, and the different models have different performance associated with them, and those are available to countries, and I think it's encouraging countries to pick up those models. I think how it's going to make that more explicit, open question. In terms of CCM evaluations and incentives, again, the Fund is taking steps in the right direction, but it's not clear that there are going to be the incentives, as opposed to the standards. In terms of LFAs, here's a point of disagreement--and, again, just to encourage the debate-I actually do not think that LFAs should be scrapped or deferred to global pools of experts, as opposed to country-specific LFAs. And the reason I think that is because the role of an organization like Price Waterhouse Coopers or KPMG in a particular country, where understanding how the grant is working and how the recipients are working and whether or not they are legitimate or not is very much a country-specific expertise and requires country-specific capacity. And, in fact, if you go to PWC in Tanzania, you don't see ex pats; you see Tanzanians who staff PWC there. And I think that's an important role, and it's an important signal and symbol relative to the grants. And I think that that is an aspect of the LFA model that's performing. However, I think there's other aspects of the LFA model that are not performing, particularly around procurement, where the skills, and expertise, and capacity associated with doing procurement assessments are not specific to Tanzania or Malawi and are, in fact, being drawn from a global pool of experts already. So it's already become a bit of an inefficient mechanism in that there is a pool of experts that are now being selected by each individual LFA, as opposed to centralized. And the Fund is looking to change that, both at the level of the Secretariat, which is trying to implement some immediate refinements to the model and also the Board is considering a comprehensive LFA assessment. Final 60 seconds on reorganizing the CCMs and PRs into two grant-coordinating agencies. Again, here I would disagree, saying I guess that it's interesting because, immediately, it seemed to be a bit more attractive to say, well, that would actually separate the whole challenge of governments and nongovernmental organizations working with one another. You just put them on separate sides of the room in like items, and they can get along with themselves--the Ministries of Finance, the Ministries of Health somewhat and certainly other NGOs. I think, though, that bypasses the very worthy challenge of sitting nongovernmental organizations and governments at the table and forcing them, encouraging them, incentivizing them to cooperate. And, again, I'll come back to Zambia as a good example. In Zambia, the governments agree to split the grant between the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Finance, the Churches Health Association of Zambia and the National AIDS Network of Zambia. And it's not for show. It's not simply that a small amount of money is going to those NGO principal recipients. A third of the $122 million granted to Zambia over a 2-year period is going to the faith-based organization, and that's unprecedented. But I think that that would be more difficult to achieve in the model that you propose, Steve, and I also think that, as you said, it makes accountability more difficult when it's a single grant-coordinating agency, as opposed to individual PRs. Apologies for dragging on, but what I hope to do in those words is simply say I think Steve's suggestions are very good ones. I think the Fund is already making progress on some of them, and that's the point of the update. And I think in those ares where it's not, it needs advocates and friends like you, like Steve, to continue to provide very thoughtful input on how it can do its job better, and I think we all hope that it will. MS. LEVINE: Thanks very much. [Applause.] MS. LEVINE: Great. Thank you very much, Anil. Why don't we take about 15 minutes or so to take questions, and I'm assuming that both of you will be willing to respond. What I think we can do in the interest of time is collect questions from maybe three people and then have our small panel here respond and then see how far we can go with that. MR. TAYLOR: My name is Adam Taylor, with Global Justice and the Student Global AIDS Campaign. I want to thank both speakers. A two-part question, but a quick one. One is related to something you alluded to in your paper, Mr. Radelet, which is looking at disbursement, I think it's important certainly to look at disbursement to principal recipients, but I've heard a lot more concern more at the next level down, which is at the subrecipient level, and I'm wondering would your analysis address that and certainly how could we overcome some of those blockages? And the second part is a political question that maybe goes a little bit outside of your direct study, but in light of the board meeting and in light of the markup that just took place in the Foreign Operations Committee, I'm aware that there have been some conditions that some members of Congress want to place in the Fund in terms of efficiency and accountability. And my sense is that will create a very dangerous precedent if that goes through. So I'm wondering what your thoughts are about conditionality by the United States or any other donor country and what that will mean. MR. RADELET: There's a lot. Which conditions do you mean? MR. TAYLOR: The ones that I know of are conditions around disbursement and conditions around restructuring the Fund itself so that it is more streamlined. Again, I wish I knew all of the details, but this is what was in the markup itself. MS. LEVINE: Thanks. Let's take a couple more. MR. MERRITT: Hi. I'm Gary Merritt, a public health sociologist. Anil, I wonder if you feel at liberty to share some of the sense of the proceedings of the board with respect to the experiences to date in articulating the Global Fund and the PEPFAR. A lot of us would really like to get a better feeling for the board's sense of the situation. Second, I wonder if there's anything you could share about the board's considerations of European proposals, whether there were any particular considerations with respect to Montenegro, Albania, some of those in that region, I mean. MS. LEVINE: One more? MR. SUD: Inder Sud from George Washington University. I kind of wonder whether you have understated the implementation issues in your paper. You know, if you look at $1.2 billion over two years, particularly for an organization that essentially seems to me is funding concepts, not projects, so far, and then you couple it with the point I think which was made earlier that disbursement is not really the good indicator because of disbursement to the final level. I think Global Fund is doing the same thing sometimes World Bank does, which is show disbursement to somebody's bank account, and they'll feel very good about it. And I kind of wonder whether the problem is much more serious than you make it out to be, and I also wonder whether a highly centralized, Geneva Center-based organization, with all of the procedures which it has, which are all centered around Geneva, can ever be effective and efficient in reaching down to the grassroots level. MS. LEVINE: Thanks very much. We've got more than three questions in those three questions. MR. RADELET: On Adam's first question, on the subrecipients, which actually comes back to the last question as well on this issue of subrecipients--I didn't mention that. I talk a little bit about it in the paper--this is an issue. I don't have the data actually to analyze what's going on between recipients and subrecipients. I'm not sure if the data actually exist, but it is a problem-it's definitely a problem and received less attention up front. There was a lot of focus of getting the proposals done, getting the grant agreements signed, getting the disbursements started to the principal recipients, and there wasn't a lot of attention paid, actually, early on, as far as I can tell, to this next issue of from the principal recipients to the subrecipients. The stories that I hear, again, are that this is particularly an acute problem when the government is the principal recipient, and they're trying to, money going from the Global Fund to a government and then to an NGO subrecipient. And sometimes this is an issue where no one is trying to be obstructionist, but the governments don't have great procedures to disburse money to NGO groups. In other places, as you can imagine, it is more obstructionist, where the governments aren't interested in disbursing money to NGO groups. Now, that, I don't have any evidence to back that up, but that's what people say; that this problem is more acute in those circumstances. But I didn't put a lot of analysis on it because, as far as I know, the data aren't there to mention it. So that's on that one. Most of these other issues I think were more for Anil, in terms of the board and the relationship with Congress-MS. LEVINE: And the conditions. MR. RADELET: Well, that's the congressional conditions. He knows all about those. MR. SONI: Have you handed over to me? MR. RADELET: Yes. MR. SONI: In terms of conditionalities on donors, I mean, I think what you're referring to is in the current Foreign Ops bill from the House side there are statements that are made that this money is--it's actually I think a little bit softer than conditional on the Fund doing X, Y, and Z, including making sure the disbursements are moving and other such things. Generally, I feel that conditionalities are not in the interest of the Fund, working as a multilateral financing mechanism, because that's why you move money bilaterally, to put conditions on how you move the money. There need to be technical and consensus-based conditions on how the Fund works, which is determined by the board, but beyond that I think conditions that specify on a donor-by-donor basis what should be required of the Fund become challenging simply logistically, given the number of donors that the Fund has. In the current Foreign Ops bill, I think that the conditions are really more of suggestions, making clear that the Congress has expectations about how the Fund is going to perform if it's going to get more money in FY '06, and I think that's quite fair, actually. It's just making a statement with some of the text that's been provided. On the Global Fund and PEPFAR, to be put in the hot seat a bit, I think that there's a difference between, first of all, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, to be fair, is actually a name that should be given to the $15 billion that's being provided over five years, which includes money to the Fund, which includes a new bilateral, a larger bilateral commitment to 15 particular countries--it was 14, now 15 with Vietnam--and existing support by the U.S. Government to these three diseases, which has already been substantial. Using PEPFAR colloquially to talk about the significant bilateral support to 15 countries and comparing it to the Global Fund, I would say that the response, at a theoretical level, has been very positive in the sense of potential complementarity. And let me say that for two particular reasons: One, there are high-burden countries that PEPFAR is now going to invest in which need a lot more support than the Global Fund or any single donor can provide. So the fact that there is more money moving to those settings and moving in such a way that it's really trying to catalyze implementation, that's a great thing. And, secondly, what PEPFAR is doing with that money is not simply moving money, but also unleashing the capacity of existing U.S. staff, and services, and skills and expertise in those countries, whether through the NAH or the CDC or USAID or other agencies. That also is a very good thing. I think the challenges--and they are challenges--are twofold, and I think that to answer them, I can't answer them, but I think you should ask anyone in those 15 countries. One of them is, whether it's PEPFAR or whether it's a European bilateral program, any new program means new requirements, and we are trying very, very hard to streamline the requirements on countries and not have it continue to be an incremental ask in terms of administration, but that's yet to be determined if we can manage to do that, and that's something I think PEPFAR and the Fund are committed to together. Secondly, I think there's an open question, and this I turn over to development finance experts, about the approach of the grants--who the money is being granted to, who's developing the proposals. Certainly, the Fund's approach to that is different than the bilateral component, and I think it's a worthy subject of debate. You asked about Eastern Europe. I'll actually defer that to some of the information that's in the documents, but there's a lot of support to Eastern European countries, and you can look up the countries that are receiving support. There was a question about disbursement and is disbursement the right measure? Absolutely not. I'm not sure who asked that. But disbursement is, saying that money has been disbursed does not mean the Global Fund has achieved anything. It means that is the Global Fund doing its part to enable achievement on the ground. And if the disbursement rates are sufficient so that countries have the money they need to be making progress, then the Fund is doing its part. And that relates to the second part of the question, which is can any Geneva-based organization ever do this? And depending on what we mean by "do this," the answer is, no. I mean, the Fund was not created to be the panacea to the challenges of implementation to the fight against AIDS, TB and malaria in developing countries. It's intended to play one particular role, which is make more efficient and move more money--make more efficient the process of moving money and move that money and do it in a way that enables implementation, but then defer the hard stuff to everything everyone else. MR. RADELET: If I can just follow up on that. The question had been about how the board perceives the Global Fund versus PEPFAR, which is why I deferred on it because I have no idea what the board thinks. But I just wanted to reiterate my own view of that issue, which is obviously not the board's. But I think Anil's got it just right. It's really a mistake right now to think about PEPFAR versus the Global Fund. It's really a dumb way to think about the issue. The PEPFAR programs--the new ones--are 15 countries. The Global Fund is 122 countries. PEPFAR isn't doing anything--the existing programs are important in a lot of these other countries, but there's an awful lot of countries that the Global Fund is working on in these three diseases that PEPFAR isn't addressing. Whether that's good or bad, they're different. PEPFAR is doing nothing on malaria and TB, and the Global Fund is. So that, again, to say that these are competitors and one can replace the other is just not the right question. They take very fundamentally different approaches. We don't know which approach works yet, in what kinds of country circumstances. I suspect that one approach will work better in some circumstances and another approach will work better in another set of circumstances. We don't know yet, but it's too early to start talking about turning off the tap on one or the other. And I do think that when you think about it that way, if you actually do the numbers for the 15 countries within PEPFAR, in that block of PEPFAR, the U.S. is going to allocate about $140 million per country. If you take the $200 million it's proposing for the Global Fund, it's about $1.6 million per country. So it's a ratio of $140 million to $1.6-. I don't know what the right ratio is, in terms of allocating our resources, but that's not the optimal allocation. That's my own personal view on it. MS. LEVINE: Let's spend another five minutes or so. Let's take three more batches of or three more questions and then give time for responses. Obviously, people are free to go at any time, and I would encourage you to sign up on our mailing list, if you haven't already. Please. MR. BARAT: Hi. Larry Barat, Academy for Educational Development. And just for disclosure, up until last week, I was the malaria adviser to the World Bank and an alternate member on the board of RBM. I think, Steve, I think you have hit the nail on the head, in terms of the challenges. From my perspective, I think you've got them all right, but I would add one category or subcategory. And I think Anil and all of the people at the Fund deserve a lot of credit for doing what they've done in the last two years, but so do WHO, and UNICEF, and CDC, and all of the partner agencies that are actually helping countries write the proposals and implement the proposals. The problem is that they don't get paid by the Global Fund to do that, and most of the donors are, in fact, shifting their money from WHO and CDC and into either bilateral initiatives or to the Global Fund. And so I can tell you that the Rollback Malaria Partnership Secretariat is almost broke. And I think that is a significant challenge, that if this is the model we are going to work with, we have to acknowledge that it's not just a Global Fund model; it's a partnership model and that these other agencies have to be part of that. Secondly, I think I was just two weeks ago at the Wilton Park meeting, which was hosted by the Global Fund, and virtually everybody I talked to had a story about how this Global Fund money is supplanting other money, and sometimes it's not so obvious. For instance, in a country that the Bank works in, they submitted a proposal to the Global Fund for Malaria. It didn't get funded. They were sitting on a basket funding of several hundred million dollars, and yet their response was to file another proposal with the Global Fund rather than use the money that was sitting there unspent. And so that's one example of something that may not be quite so obvious, but there are also examples of Ministries of Finance reducing the Ministries of Health's global budget because of the Global Fund allocation, and there are examples of the Ministry of Health shifting money from one disease to another. For instance, if they get funded for malaria, they shift their funds more to AIDS and TB. Whether that's a good thing or not, I don't know, but certainly it's something I think that is underestimated. MR. LAXMINARAYAN: Ramanan Laxminarayan from Resources for the Future. I think Anil made reference to the point about artemisinin combinations and that countries are perfectly welcome to use whatever they wanted to and ask money for that, but they often didn't. And I think one important reason for that is financial sustainability. They could choose to move from chloroquine to ACT, but if the Fund stopped paying for these two years from now, they'd really be stuck, which brings to light the more important question of what kind of changes countries would have to make in their own policies on how they treat diseases. If they want to move to sort of the next generation and how this is impacted by the Fund's lack of commitment beyond a couple of years, I mean, as part of the suggestions, could it be possible that maybe the Fund could consider longer-term commitments for things like ACTs, but it wouldn't have to make the same longer-term commitments for bed nets, for instance. You could pay for bed nets for one year, but if you didn't have money for two years, that's perfectly fine. So some heterogeneity here might be useful. MS. LEVINE: Last question. MS. DUVVURY: Hi. Nata Duvvury, National Center for Research on Women. And, Steve, I just wanted to congratulate you on a wonderful presentation and wanted to inform you that ICRW is also doing an exercise of looking at the effectiveness of civil society participation in the Global Fund. And I think that's a very important principle of the Global Fund that we should recognize, that it's a new initiative for including civil society in governance in a financing mechanism, and that's something unique. And I wanted to take the opportunity of Anil being here to say that in our analysis of civil society participation, the stark finding has been that gender is not at all incorporated into the Global Fund's structure, policies, processes, and which is a very important concern. So I'd like your reaction to that. MS. LEVINE: Thanks very much. Brief responses, please. MR. RADELET: On Larry's question about the unfunded mandates really for other partners of the responsibilities of donors spending resources on the Global Fund proposals and that money is shifting away from WHO and Rollback Malaria, absolutely right. This is a real problem, and it's what I was alluding to, and I talk a little bit more in the report that financing for the Global Fund is not the only constraint in the system. There are other partners here that need to work well and that aren't working particularly well, and I think the Global Fund can play a role in helping these other agencies. It actually did it recently in its last board statement a few months ago. The Executive Director came out very clearly saying that he thought the WHO needed more funding, which was quite unusual for him to say in his Board statement to his own board, that WHO needed this extra assistance. So I think it's a step in the right direction. There's been an issue from the beginning about the Global Fund proposal comes in, and these other agencies have to send donors to the table, and use their own money for TA, for technical assistance. And one of the challenges for the Global Fund is to move away from the perception that this is a Global Fund proposal that other agencies need to help with and move towards, that this is a country proposal that all of these other agencies have to contribute to, and it's not an unfunded mandate, but in fact we're all working toward the same goal. Now, that sounds very nice. How to get there and how to do that is tricky, but there is a problem that the initial perceptions are this is for the Global Fund program, as opposed to a larger program. Your other point on supplanting the donor funds I think is, we don't yet, in terms of how additional this is. There's always going to be a little bit of substitution, and there should be probably on the margin. I'm not an absolute full advocate that every new dollar actually has to be fully additional, but we don't know the extent to it, but I think it's true that that's happened. These other issues on treatment, I will leave for you. They asked specifically for you, so I'll-MR. SONI: Thanks to all of you for being the diehards who are sticking out longer than we were supposed to go. But quick responses are, on other organizations, absolutely. The Fund, you know, I'm going to suggest to Richard the next time he's in town that there's a meeting on the Global Fund where he doesn't talk about the Global Fund and he just talks about all of the other organizations that are critical to the Global Fund succeeding. It's a common misperception that the Fund doesn't appreciate that. It's quite the opposite. And I think that everyone at the Fund is quite committed to providing support to other agencies and making sure that, as you grow the overall financing, and a portion of that is always going to be about moving from the donor to the recipient, but some of that has to be moving to other agencies. And for sake of brevity, I won't go through all of the examples of why those other agencies are so important, but I wholeheartedly agree. On this point about financial sustainability, I think, to me, your point underscores Steve's first challenge, which is the Fund has to be funded in order to do what it's meant to do, but there's a challenge in terms of longer commitments for ACT. Because whatever category you put into those interventions requiring longer commitments, ARVs is going to be in that category as well. And then you start actually getting the largest budget items within the Global Fund's grants into the category that requires larger commitments. And you're talking about a very different model than the current model of the Global Fund. Quite honestly, I would put it this way. This is another maybe a distinction of the Global Fund, Steve, to add to one of your up-front statements. It is a huge risk. And when the Fund was created, people said we are putting a lot on the table, and developing countries and NGOs are putting an enormous amount of faith in donors, who said we will fund this, and we will sustain those programs that are successful and that perform. And it would be, I can't even begin to quantify or qualify in words how damaging it would be I think in terms of overall development for existing programs not to be funded. And I think that this point about ACT being supported over a medium term and a long term, and the same with ARVs and other interventions, it needs to be proven in practice in the next couple of years with existing grants continue to be funded. That said, this is a little bit more technical. There are ways, by the way, to take accounts for the purchase of ACTs which has a lot of capital risk involved in the manufacturers and use escrow accounts to actually ensure a steady supply and actually make larger up-front purchases, which also gives you the advantage of lowering the price, but that's a separate item. On civil society participation and gender, first, the Fund should actually thank ICRW. They initiated a project about a year ago to work with the Global Fund Secretariat to see how its proposal process could be adapted a bit to include more questions about gender which actually was incorporated into the last couple of rounds. It should do more to address issues of gender. So I agree, and I look forward to the results of the finding and to concrete suggestions on how to improve that. A couple of points to note, actually, in terms of updates from the board and just, in general, in terms of what does the Fund represent in terms of civil society participation, the ViceChair of the board is actually a nongovernmental representative, a woman named Helen Rossert, who runs an NGO in Paris. First of all, NGOs having voting seats on the board sitting next to the largest donors in the world, that was innovative. The fact that they now have governance positions is great. The fact that it's a woman I think is even better. In the latest board meeting, there's something that's gone even further, which is there was a nonvoting seat for a person living with HIV. That's for a delegation of communities affected by the three diseases. The board decided to give that representative a vote at the table, which again is quite innovative for a multibillion-dollar mechanism to have an explicit vote dedicated to affected communities, but that's not enough. But I think it is some progress in the right direction. Let me just make a last sort of wrap-up point about that, which is another point of distinction about the Fund is the board and the fact that at the board, perhaps earliest and also at the level of governance, perhaps more importantly than any other mechanism of the Fund, it really has to show, and I think does show, that the Fund is committed to equal participation of different sectors. For those of you who don't know, the board consists of members who are donor representatives, recipient representatives, NGO representatives, as well as private sector representatives. There is no veto on the board. The U.S. cannot veto a decision if everyone votes against it. It's going to go whether the U.S. or any other board member likes it or not. And I think what's been interesting is, for me, spending two years at the Fund, at first you saw the typical alliances in terms of how groups would gather together on issues, and now you see a board where it really is about the issues, and it's about the individuals, and it's about honest and healthy debate. And one thing that I think represents that better than any other is the chair of the board is currently Tommy Thompson, the Secretary of Health and Human Services in the United States, and he has been a tremendous chair, and he has, better than the previous chair, in fact, made sure that the debate at the level of the Fund is about the issues. So he pulls in civil society issues and sometimes says, you know, wait a second. We're not listening to what's being said here. And he'll often disagree with, in acting as a chair, with his own delegation, much to their frustration sometimes. But I think it's been a remarkable thing to see how the voice of civil society at the level of the board has been respected, in my opinion, remarkably and in an unprecedented way. MS. LEVINE: Thanks very much. Before closing, I just want to make one comment on this point on financial sustainability . There's another alliance, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization that is a couple of years ahead of the Global Fund in facing precisely this challenge with the more costly vaccines and the questions that are quite pressing about whether or not governments and their donor partners are willing to take on the long-term responsibilities for funding and what the feedback of that uncertainty is both to the pharmaceutical market and also to the country-level decisionmaking. So I think there are a lot of opportunities to join forces and learn from that. Thank you very much for your hanging in there and for your continued interest. Please do sign up for our mailing list, if you're interested in hearing about future events. Thanks very much. [Applause.]