A Bimonthly Market Report Vol. 28 No. 5 Sep/Oct 2010 Texas Timber Price Trends Market Overview* Pine sawlog markets remained slow and prices were flat to slightly lower. Dry weather brought price declines for most timber products in East Texas during September/October 2010. Statewide pine sawlog prices averaged $28.36 per ton, 5 percent lower than the last period. This was 36% higher than the price a year ago. The average pine sawlog price was $26.51 per ton for Northeast Texas and $30.23 per ton for Southeast Texas during this period. The average pine pulpwood price declined 16 percent from the last period to $6.31 per ton, roughly the same level as a year ago. The average small diameter pine sawlog (CNS) price was $10.75 per ton, down 6 percent from the last period. The average hardwood sawlog price was $28.15 per ton, up 7 percent from the last period. This was well above the price ($19.18/ton) a year ago. The average hardwood pulpwood price dropped 18 percent to $8.06 per ton, still significantly higher than the price a year ago. Mill inventories were filling up as winter approaches. Several reporters showed concerns about the impacts of permanent sawmill closure in Atlanta on the timber market in the region. The average prices reported here represent statewide transactions of 43,032 tons of pine sawlogs, 432,202 tons of pine pulpwood, 76,017 tons of pine CNS, 39,332 tons of mixed hardwood sawlogs, and 70,167 tons of hardwood pulpwood during September/October 2010. Texas Timber Price Trends Page 2 Sep/Oct 2010 S t u m p a g e P r i c e s i n Te x a s Product /Region Average Price Last Period Year Ago Report PINE Sawlogs $/ton $/MBF $/ton Northeast TX 26.51 220.55 27.93 Southeast TX 30.23 241.82 Statewide 28.36 USFS Pulpwood $/MBF Chg $/ton $/MBF Chg Number 226.09 -5% 32.09 256.74 -17% 24 34.04 272.34 -11% 20.30 161.07 49% 5 231.35 29.94 241.38 -5% 20.88 165.73 36% 29 ** ** ** ** ** 12.53 100.26 ** ** $/ton $/cord $/ton $/cord Chg $/ton $/cord Chg Number Northeast TX 6.86 18.52 6.66 17.98 3% 5.63 15.15 22% 46 Southeast TX 6.10 16.48 8.00 21.59 -24% 6.15 16.61 -1% 37 Statewide 6.31 17.05 7.53 20.33 -16% 6.05 16.34 4% 83 USFS ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** $/ton $/cord $/ton $/cord Chg $/ton $/cord Chg Number Northeast TX ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Southeast TX 10.72 28.93 ** ** ** 10.42 28.13 3% 3 Statewide 10.75 29.04 11.47 -6% 10.42 28.13 3% 4 $/ton $/MBF $/ton Chg $/ton $/MBF Northeast TX 26.13 239.76 25.86 238.19 1% 19.58 181.62 33% 42 Southeast TX 33.32 299.87 30.70 276.28 9% 18.66 167.96 79% 9 Statewide 28.15 256.86 26.32 241.86 7% 19.18 175.57 47% 51 USFS ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Pulpwood $/ton $/cord $/ton $/cord Chg $/ton $/cord Chg Number Chip-N-Saw 30.97 HARDWOOD Mixed Sawlogs $/MBF Chg Number Northeast TX 6.41 17.96 9.09 25.44 -29% 6.25 17.49 3% 20 Southeast TX 8.59 24.04 9.95 27.86 -14% 4.59 12.85 87% 24 Statewide 8.06 22.56 9.83 27.52 -18% 4.84 13.55 67% 44 USFS ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 1. Stumpage price statistics include gatewood sales. Stumpage prices for gatewood sales are estimated by subtracting cut-and-haul costs, other expenses, and profits provided by reporter. 2. Price is calculated from a specific conversion factor reported for each sale if available; otherwise, the average conversion factors listed on page 4 are used. MBF = Thousand Board Feet. The DOYLE LOG SCALE is used for board foot measurements. 3. Statewide data excludes U.S. Forest Service sales. 4. ** indicates insufficient sales to report price statistics (less than three sales). 5. Prices listed for previous periods may differ from previously published values because additional data have been received. 6. Price change in percentage is calculated based on price in ton. 7. Extreme outliers from reported data are detected and filtered out based on statistical methods. 8. Price changes are calculated based on price in ton. Texas Timber Price Trends Sep/Oct 2010 Page 3 Sawlogs Pulpwood $/Ton $/Ton 20 55 50 P in e 45 Hard wood 40 18 P in e 16 Hard wood 14 35 12 30 10 25 8 20 6 15 4 10 2 5 0 0 S/O '08 N/D '08 J/F '09 M/A '09 M/J '09 J/A '09 S/O '09 N/D '09 J/F '10 M/A '10 M/J '10 J/A '10 S/O '08 S/O '10 N'D '08 J/F '09 M/J '09 J/A '09 S/O '09 N/D '09 J/F '10 M/A '10 M/J '10 J/A '10 S/O '10 Historical Statewide Sawlog Prices $/MBF-Doyle 600 Pine 500 Har dwood 400 300 200 100 0 J/A '85 J/A '87 J/A '89 J/A '91 J/A '93 J/A '95 J/A '97 J/A '99 J/A '01 J/A '03 J/A '05 J/A '07 J/A '09 J/A '03 J/A '05 J/A '07 J/A '09 Historical Statewide Pulpwood Prices $/cord 50 45 Pine 40 Hardwood 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 J/A '85 J/A '87 J/A '89 J/A '91 J/A '93 J/A '95 J/A '97 J/A '99 J/A '01 Note: A gap in the chart means less than 3 sales were reported and no price statistics were compiled. For chart data, please go to http://txforestservice.tamu.edu/main/article.aspx?id=145. Texas Timber Price Trends Texas Timber Price Trends is a bimonthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber in Texas. This report is intended only as a guide to general price levels. Individuals interested in buying and selling timber can use this report to monitor market trends and get a general idea of what timber is worth. However, it should not be used to judge the fair market value of a specific timber sale, which may vary considerably due to many factors. HOW ARE AVERAGE PRICES CALCULATED? Data published in this report are from actual timber sales as reported by as many as 60 cooperators active in the East Texas timber market. Reporters include forest product companies, logging contractors, consulting foresters, family forest landowners, financial institutions, and federal agencies. The prices are volume weighted average prices. The price per ton for each product category is as reported or using a specific conversion factor provided by the reporters. When a specific conversion factor for each sale is not available, an average conversion factor listed here is used instead. Page 4 VOLUME CONVERSION FACTORS Sawlogs & Chip-N-Saw Pine— 8 tons=1 MBF-Doyle Pine CNS— 2.7 tons= 1 Cord Hardwood— 9 tons= 1 MBF-Doyle Pulpwood Pine— 2.7 tons=1 Cord Hardwood— 2.8 tons= 1 Cord This publication is also available on the Texas Forest Service website at: http://txforestservice.tamu.edu/main/article.aspx?id=145 WANT TO BE A REPORTER? If you are active in the East Texas timber market, please consider becoming a cooperating price reporter. You will receive report forms bi-monthly with a self-return envelope. In addition, you will receive a hard copy of the report in exchange for your price information. Texas Forest Service 301 Tarrow, Suite 364 College Station, TX 77840-7896 Sep/Oct 2010