The Distribution of 2-Selmer Ranks of Quadratic Twists of Elliptic Curves. Zev Klagsbrun partially joint with Karl Rubin and Barry Mazur Department of Mathematics University of Wisconsin - Madison September 27, 2012 Theorem (Heath-Brown 1994, Swinnerton-Dyer 2008, Kane 2011) Suppose E /Q is an elliptic curve with E (Q)[2] ' Z/2Z × Z/2Z that does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny over Q. Then for r ≥ 2, #{d squarefree, |d| < X : dimF2 Sel2 (E d /Q) = r } = αr X →∞ #{d squarefree, |d| < X } lim αr > 0 explicit constants with P αr = 1. Theorem (Heath-Brown 1994, Swinnerton-Dyer 2008, Kane 2011) Suppose E /Q is an elliptic curve with E (Q)[2] ' Z/2Z × Z/2Z that does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny over Q. Then for r ≥ 2, #{d squarefree, |d| < X : dimF2 Sel2 (E d /Q) = r } = αr X →∞ #{d squarefree, |d| < X } lim αr > 0 explicit constants with α0 ≈ .21, α1 ≈ .42, α2 ≈ .21 P αr = 1. d2 (E /K ) := dimF2 Sel2 (E /K ) − dimF2 E (K )[2] will be referred to as the 2-Selmer rank of E. √ E := E , where F = K ( d) F d Theorem (Dokchitser & Dokchitser) Suppose K is a totally complex number field and E /K has potential good reduction over an abelian extension of K . Then d2 (E F /K ) ≡ d2 (E /K ) for every quadratic twist E F of E . (mod 2) Theorem (Kramer, 1981) We have a natural map × × 2 {F /K quadratic} = K /(K ) → Y v |2∆E ∞ Kv× /(Kv× )2 Theorem (Kramer, 1981) We have a natural map × × 2 {F /K quadratic} = K /(K ) → Y Kv× /(Kv× )2 v |2∆E ∞ d2 (E F /K ) (mod 2) is determined entirely by the image of F /K under this map. Theorem (K., Mazur, Rubin) Let S(X ) := {F /K : NK /Q q < X ∀q ramified in F /K }. Theorem (K., Mazur, Rubin) Let S(X ) := {F /K : NK /Q q < X ∀q ramified in F /K }. Then for sufficiently large X , #{F /K ∈ S(X ) : d2 (E F /K ) is even } 1 + δ = #S(X ) 2 δ ∈ [−1, 1] ∩ Z[ 12 ]. Y δv , where the δv are explicit. δ= v |2∆E ∞ δv = 0 for all real places v , so δ = 0 if K has a real embedding. Example Let E be the curve given by y 2 + xy + y = x 3 + x 2 − 3x + 1, √ K a finite extension of Q( −2) that is unramified at primes above 5. Then √ Y δ = −1[K :Q( −2)] (1 − 2[Kv :Q2 ] ) v |2 δ is dense in [−1, 1] as K varies. #{F /K ∈ S(X ) : d2 (E F /K ) is even } is dense #S(X ) in [0, 1] as K varies Conjecture (Goldfeld’s Conjecture) If E an elliptic curve over Q, then 50% of all quadratic twists of E have rank 0 50% have rank 1 0% have rank ≥ 2 Conjecture (Goldfeld’s Conjecture for Number Fields ) If E an elliptic curve over K , then there is a computable factor δ ∈ [−1, 1] such that The proportion of twists of E having rank 0 is 1+δ 2 . The proportion of twists of E having rank 1 is 1−δ 2 . Conjecture (Goldfeld’s Conjecture) If E an elliptic curve over Q, then 50% of all quadratic twists of E have rank 0 50% have rank 1 0% have rank ≥ 2 Conjecture (Goldfeld’s Conjecture for Number Fields ) If E an elliptic curve over K , then there is a computable factor δ ∈ [−1, 1] such that The proportion of twists of E having rank 0 is 1+δ 2 . The proportion of twists of E having rank 1 is 1−δ 2 . δ may depend on how the twists are ordered. Theorem (K., Mazur, Rubin) Suppose E (K )[2] = 0 and Gal(K (E [2])/K ) ' S3 . There exist “skew-boxes" Bm (X ) for m ∈ N and [ + X ∈ R with Bm (X ) = {[F : K ] = 2} such that m,X #{F /K ∈ Bm (X ) : d2 (E F /K ) = r } lim lim m→∞ X →∞ #Bm (X ) (1 + δ)αr if r is even = (1 − δ)αr if r is odd • E [2] and E F [2] are GK -isomorphic so we can view H 1 (K , E F [2]) and sitting inside of H 1 (K , E [2]). • For every F /K , the group Sel2 (E F /K ) is subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) which is defined by local conditions in H 1 (Kv , E [2]) for each v of K . • The local conditions for E F and E vary in a controlled manner, and we can understand how the subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) changes as we change the local condition at a single prime from the local condition for E to the local condition for E F . • E [2] and E F [2] are GK -isomorphic so we can view H 1 (K , E F [2]) and sitting inside of H 1 (K , E [2]). • For every F /K , the group Sel2 (E F /K ) is subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) which is defined by local conditions in H 1 (Kv , E [2]) for each v of K . • The local conditions for E F and E vary in a controlled manner, and we can understand how the subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) changes as we change the local condition at a single prime from the local condition for E to the local condition for E F . • We work our way from Sel(E /K ) to Sel(E F /K ) by successively changing the local conditions at each prime ramified in F /K . This gives us a chain of intermediate subgroups Z1 , Z2 , . . . , Zm of H 1 (K , E [2]) each defined by local conditions, where Zi and Zi+1 differ by a single local condition and Zm = Sel2 (E /K ). • E [2] and E F [2] are GK -isomorphic so we can view H 1 (K , E F [2]) and sitting inside of H 1 (K , E [2]). • For every F /K , the group Sel2 (E F /K ) is subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) which is defined by local conditions in H 1 (Kv , E [2]) for each v of K . • The local conditions for E F and E vary in a controlled manner, and we can understand how the subgroup of H 1 (K , E [2]) changes as we change the local condition at a single prime from the local condition for E to the local condition for E F . • We work our way from Sel(E /K ) to Sel(E F /K ) by successively changing the local conditions at each prime ramified in F /K . This gives us a chain of intermediate subgroups Z1 , Z2 , . . . , Zm of H 1 (K , E [2]) each defined by local conditions, where Zi and Zi+1 differ by a single local condition and Zm = Sel2 (E /K ). • This process is a Markov process where the states are the ranks of the intermediate groups Zi and the probabilities come from understanding what happens when we change a single local condition. • The αr are the stable distribution of this Markov process. Example (K., 2011) Let K be a number field and let E be the elliptic curve over K given by E : y 2 = x 3 − 2(1 + 256n2 )x 2 + (1 + 256n2 )x where n ∈ N with 1 + 256n2 6∈ (K × )2 . Then d2 (E F /K ) ≥ r2 for every quadratic F /K where r2 is the number of complex place of K . Example (K., 2011) Let K be a number field and let E be the elliptic curve over K given by E : y 2 = x 3 − 2(1 + 256n2 )x 2 + (1 + 256n2 )x where n ∈ N with 1 + 256n2 6∈ (K × )2 . Then d2 (E F /K ) ≥ r2 for every quadratic F /K where r2 is the number of complex place of K . E has a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over K (E [2]) Example (K., 2011) Let K be a number field and let E be the elliptic curve over K given by E : y 2 = x 3 − 2(1 + 256n2 )x 2 + (1 + 256n2 )x where n ∈ N with 1 + 256n2 6∈ (K × )2 . Then d2 (E F /K ) ≥ r2 for every quadratic F /K where r2 is the number of complex place of K . E has a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over K (E [2]) Impossible when E does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over K (E [2]). Theorem (K., 2012) Suppose E (Q)[2] ' Z/2Z and E does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over Q(E [2]). Then for any fixed r , lim inf X →∞ #{d squarefree, |d| < X : d2 (E d /Q) ≥ r } #{d squarefree, |d| < X } Theorem (K., 2012) Suppose E (Q)[2] ' Z/2Z and E does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over Q(E [2]). Then for any fixed r , lim inf X →∞ #{d squarefree, |d| < X : d2 (E d /Q) ≥ r } ≥ #{d squarefree, |d| < X } 1 2 Theorem (K., 2012) Suppose E (Q)[2] ' Z/2Z and E does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over Q(E [2]). Then for any fixed r , lim inf X →∞ #{d squarefree, |d| < X : d2 (E d /Q) ≥ r } ≥ #{d squarefree, |d| < X } At least 12 of the twists of E have arbitrarily large 2-Selmer rank There is no distribution function on 2-Selmer ranks within the twist family of E 1 2 We have a 2-isogeny φ : E → E 0 with C := ker φ = E (K )[2] We have a 2-isogeny φ : E → E 0 with C := ker φ = E (K )[2] E 0 (K )/φ(E (K )) E 0 (Kv )/φ(E (Kv )) κ κv / / H 1 (K , C ) resv H 1 (Kv , C ) We have a 2-isogeny φ : E → E 0 with C := ker φ = E (K )[2] E 0 (K )/φ(E (K )) E 0 (Kv )/φ(E (Kv )) κ κv / / H 1 (K , C ) resv H 1 (Kv , C ) Hφ1 (Kv , C ) = image κv : E 0 (Kv )/φ(E (Kv )) → H 1 (Kv , C ) We have a 2-isogeny φ : E → E 0 with C := ker φ = E (K )[2] E 0 (K )/φ(E (K )) E 0 (Kv )/φ(E (Kv )) κ / κv / H 1 (K , C ) resv H 1 (Kv , C ) Hφ1 (Kv , C ) = image κv : E 0 (Kv )/φ(E (Kv )) → H 1 (Kv , C ) n Selφ (E /K ) = c ∈ H 1 (K , C ) : resv (c)∈Hφ1 (Kv ,C ) for all v of K o • 0 → E 0 (K )[2] → Selφ (E /K ) → Sel2 (E /K ) → Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • 0 → E 0 (K )[2] → Selφ (E /K ) → Sel2 (E /K ) → Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • T (E /E 0 ) = #Selφ (E /K ) #Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • 0 → E 0 (K )[2] → Selφ (E /K ) → Sel2 (E /K ) → Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • T (E /E 0 ) = #Selφ (E /K ) #Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • d2 (E /K ) ≥ ord2 (T (E /E 0 )) • 0 → E 0 (K )[2] → Selφ (E /K ) → Sel2 (E /K ) → Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • T (E /E 0 ) = #Selφ (E /K ) #Selφ̂ (E 0 /K ) • d2 (E /K ) ≥ ord2 (T (E /E 0 )) Y #Hφ1 (Kv , C ) • T (E /E ) = 2 0 v |2∆E ∞ Let ∆ be the discriminant of E and ∆0 be the discriminant of E 0 . Let ∆ be the discriminant of E and ∆0 be the discriminant of E 0 . • There exists a constant C = C (E ) such that 0 ∆ − ∆ X p p d 0d ≤C ord2 T (E /E ) − 2 p|d p -2∆ E Let ∆ be the discriminant of E and ∆0 be the discriminant of E 0 . • There exists a constant C = C (E ) such that 0 ∆ − ∆ X p p d 0d ≤C ord2 T (E /E ) − 2 p|d p -2∆ E • The Erdös-Kac Theorem shows that P ∆0 p − ∆p p|d p -2∆E p 2 log log d has the standard normal distribution. Let ∆ be the discriminant of E and ∆0 be the discriminant of E 0 . • There exists a constant C = C (E ) such that 0 ∆ − ∆ X p p d 0d ≤C ord2 T (E /E ) − 2 p|d p -2∆ E • The Erdös-Kac Theorem shows that P p|d p -2∆E p ∆0 p − ∆p 2 log log d has the standard normal distribution. • For any fixed r , ord2 T (E d /E 0d ) ≥ r for half of all squarefree d .