Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion of Parametric Operator Equations Christoph Schwab joint with Claudia Schillings Ackn.: A. Cohen, R. DeVore, A. Stuart June 20, 2013 research supported by the European Research Council under FP7 Grant AdG247277 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 1 / 19 Outline 1 Bayesian Inversion of Parametric Operator Equations 2 Sparsity of Parametric Forward Solution 3 Sparsity of the Posterior Density 4 Sparse Quadrature 5 Numerical Results Parametric Parabolic Problem 6 Summary Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 2 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problems (Stuart 2010) Goal: Expected response in QoI over all uncertain parameters u ∈ X, conditional on noisy data δ δ = G(u) + η, G =O◦G X (separable Banach) space of uncertainties G : X 7→ X uncertainty-to-solution map O : X 7→ RK observation operator, O ∈ (X 0 )K G : X 7→ RK uncertainty-to-observation map, G = O ◦ G η ∈ RK additive observational noise (η ∼ N (0, Γ)), noise (co)variance Γ > 0. Linear Operator Equation with operator uncertainty Given f ∈ Y 0 and u ∈ X, find q ∈ X : A(u; q) = f with A ∈ L(X , Y 0 ), X , Y reflexive Banach spaces, a(v, w) :=Y hw, AviY 0 ∀v ∈ X , w ∈ Y induced bilinear form; q(u) = G(u) := (A(u; q))−1 f , G(u) := O(G(u)) Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 3 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problems (Stuart 2010) Goal: Expected response in QoI over all uncertain parameters u ∈ X, conditional on noisy data δ δ = G(u) + η, G =O◦G X (separable Banach) space of uncertainties G : X 7→ X uncertainty-to-solution map O : X 7→ RK observation operator, O ∈ (X 0 )K G : X 7→ RK uncertainty-to-observation map, G = O ◦ G η ∈ RK additive observational noise (η ∼ N (0, Γ)), noise (co)variance Γ > 0. Bayes LSQ potential ΦΓ : X × RK → R ΦΓ (u; δ) := Ch. Schwab (SAM) 1 (δ − G(u))> Γ−1 (δ − G(u)) 2 Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 3 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problems (Stuart 2010) Bayes’ Theorem: Expected value of QoI φ(u) w.r. to posterior measure µδ , conditional on given data δ Z 1 µδ E [φ] = exp(−ΦΓ (u; δ))φ(u)dµ0 (u) ZΓ u∈X Normalization constant ZΓ = Eµ0 [exp(−ΦΓ (u; δ))]. µδ -expectation over all uncertainties u ∈ X Standard Approach: sampling (w.r. to unknown measure µδ !) MCMC; Rate ∼ #(PDEsolves)−1/2 Present work: reformulation of µδ -expectation over all u ∈ X as an infinite dimensional, deterministic quadrature problem; sparsity of integrands; adaptive Smolyak; massively parallel implementation. Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 3 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problems (Stuart 2010) Parametrization of uncertainty u ∈ X (eg. KL, MRA, ...) X u = u(y) := hui + yj ψj ∈ X, y = (yj )j∈J ∈ U j∈J y = (yj )j∈J i.i.d sequence of real-valued random variables yj ∼ U(−1, 1) bj := kψj kX , (bj )j≥1 ∈ `1 (J), hui, ψj ∈ X, J finite (J = {1, 2, ..., J}) or countably infinite (J = N) index set Bayesian prior probability measure on uncertain parameters y µ0 := O j∈J πj , 1 non-gaussian, eg. uniform: πj = λ1 . 2 N 1 (U, B) = [−1, 1]J , j∈J B [−1, 1] measurable space Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 3 / 19 (p, ε) Analyticity (Chkifa, Cohen, DeVore & CS 2012) (p, ε) : 1 (uniform well-posedness) For each y ∈ U, there exists a unique realization u(y) ∈ X and a unique solution q(y) ∈ X of the forward problem. This solution satisfies the a-priori estimate ∀y ∈ U : kq(y)kX ≤ C0 (y) , where U 3 y 7→ C0 (y) ∈ L1 (U, µ0 ). (p, ε) : 2 (holomorphy) There exist 0 ≤ p ≤ 1 and b = (bj )j∈J ∈ `p (J) such that for 0 < ε ≤ 1, there exist 0 < Cε < ∞ and ρ = (ρj )j∈J , ρj > 1 such that X (ρj − 1)bj ≤ ε , j∈J and U 3 y 7→ q(y) ∈ X admits holomorphic extension to Eρ := ∀z ∈ Eρ : Ch. Schwab (SAM) Q j∈J Eρj ⊂ CJ kq(z)kX ≤ Cε . Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 4 / 19 (p, ε)-Analyticity =⇒ Sparsity Theorem (Sparsity)(Chkifa, Cohen, DeVore & CS) Assume q(y) = G(u(y)) is (p, ε)-analytic. Then ∀y ∈ U : q(y) = X qPν Pν (y) ν∈F with unconditional convergence in L∞ (U, µ0 ; X ), where O Pνj (yj ) (Tensor Legendre Polynomials) Pν (y) := j≥1 ν ∈ F := (J ∪ {0})Nfinite , Pk (1) = 1, kPk kL∞ (−1,1) = 1 , k = 0, 1, .... There exists sequence of nested, monotone ΛPN ⊂ F with #(ΛPN ) ≤ N such that X P ≤ C(p, q)N −(1/p−1) . q(y) − q P (y) sup ν ν y∈U P ν∈Λ N Ch. Schwab (SAM) X Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 5 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problem Bayes’ Theorem (parametric; CS & A.M. Stuart 2010) Assume G(u) u=hui+ P j∈J yj ψj : U 7→ R bounded and continuous. Then µδ is a.c. with respect to µ0 : dµδ 1 (y) = ΘΓ (y) dµ0 ZΓ with posterior density ΘΓ given by ΘΓ (y) = exp −ΦΓ (u; δ) u=hui+ P j∈J yj ψj , y∈U and normalization constant Z ZΓ := ΘΓ (y)dµ0 (y) . U Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 6 / 19 Bayesian Inverse Problem Expectation of Quantity of Interest (QoI) φ : X → S Z Z0 1 µδ E [φ(u)] = exp −ΦΓ (u; δ) φ(u) dµ0 (y) =: Γ P ZΓ U ZΓ u=hui+ j∈J yj ψj with ZΓ := R y∈U exp(− 12 (δ − G(u))> Γ−1 (δ − G(u)) )dµ0 (y), Γ>0. Reformulation of the forward problem with uncertain, distributed input parameter u ∈ X as infinite-dimensional, parametric-deterministic problem Parametric posterior density ΘΓ (y) of µδ with respect to the (non-Gaussian) prior µ0 Deterministic, adaptive quadrature for ZΓ0 and ZΓ to compute the posterior expectation of QoI, given data δ ⇒ Efficient algorithm to approximate expectations conditional on given data with dimension-independent rates of convergence > 1/2 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 6 / 19 Sparsity of the Posterior Density Theorem (Cl. Schillings and CS 2013) Assume that the forward solution map U 3 y 7→ q(y) is (p, ε)-analytic for some 0 < p < 1 and ε > 0. Then the Bayesian posterior density ΘΓ (y) is, as a function of the parameter y, likewise (p, ε)-analytic and, therefore, p-sparse. Examples: affine-parametric, linear operator equations semilinear elliptic PDEs (Hansen & CS; Math. Nachr. 2013) parametric initial value ODEs (Hansen & CS; Vietnam J. Math. 2013) elliptic multiscale problems (Hoang & CS; Analysis and Applications 2012) Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 7 / 19 N-term Approximation Rates Theorem (Cl. Schillings and CS 2013) Assume that the uncertainty-to-observation map G(u(y)) : U 7→ RK is (p, ε)-analytic for some 0 < p < 1. Then exists a nested sequence (ΛΘ N )N≥1 ⊂ F of monotone sets Θ Θ ΛN ⊂ F such that #(ΛN ) ≤ N and such that, for all N, X 1 −s θν Pν (y) sup ΘΓ (y) − ≤ C(Γ, p)N , s := p − 1 . y∈U Θ ν∈ΛN X δ Evaluation of Eµ [φ] by Adaptive Smolyak quadrature algorithm with convergence rate N −(1/p−1) (N = # PDE solves). ΛPN = ? Either direct construction from sets ΛG N in adaptive sGFEM (CS & Stuart (2010)), or b) adaptive Smolyak or ... Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 8 / 19 Smolyak: Univariate Quadratures Family of univariate quadratures (for coordinate measures) Qk (g) = nk X wki · g(zki ) i=0 with g : [−1, 1] 7→ S for state space S (Qk )k≥0 sequence of univariate quadrature formulas k (zkj )nj=0 ⊂ [−1, 1] with zkj ∈ [−1, 1] , ∀j, k and zk0 = 0 , ∀k quadrature points wkj , 0 ≤ j ≤ nk , ∀k ∈ N0 quadrature weights Assumption (i) (I − Qk )(vk ) = 0 , with I(vk ) = R [−1,1] (ii) wkj > 0 , Ch. Schwab (SAM) ∀vk ∈ Sk := Pk ⊗ S , Pk = span{yj : j ∈ N0 , j ≤ k} vk (y)λ1 (dy) 0 ≤ j ≤ nk , ∀k ∈ N0 . Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 9 / 19 Smolyak: Univariate Quadratures Family of univariate quadratures (for coordinate measures) Qk (g) = nk X wki · g(zki ) i=0 with g : [−1, 1] 7→ S for state space S (Qk )k≥0 sequence of univariate quadrature formulas k (zkj )nj=0 ⊂ [−1, 1] with zkj ∈ [−1, 1] , ∀j, k and zk0 = 0 , ∀k quadrature points wkj , 0 ≤ j ≤ nk , ∀k ∈ N0 quadrature weights Univariate quadrature difference operator ∆j = Qj − Qj−1 , j≥0 with Q−1 = 0 and z00 = 0, w00 = 1 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 9 / 19 Smolyak: Univariate Quadratures Family of univariate quadratures (for coordinate measures) k Q (g) = nk X wki · g(zki ) i=0 with g : [−1, 1] 7→ S for state space S (Qk )k≥0 sequence of univariate quadrature formulas k (zkj )nj=0 ⊂ [−1, 1] with zkj ∈ [−1, 1] , ∀j, k and zk0 = 0 , ∀k quadrature points wkj , 0 ≤ j ≤ nk , ∀k ∈ N0 quadrature weights Univariate quadrature operator rewritten as telescoping sum Qk = k X ∆j j=0 with Z k = {zkj : 0 ≤ j ≤ nk } ⊂ [−1, 1] set of points corresponding to Qk Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 9 / 19 Smolyak: Tensorization Tensorized multivariate quadrature operators O O Qν = Qνj , ∆ν = ∆νj j≥1 j≥1 with associated set of collocation points Z ν = ×j≥1 Z νj ⊂ U If ν = 0F , then ∆ν g = Qν g = g(z0F ) = g(0F ) If 0F 6= ν ∈ F , with ν̂ = (νj )j6=i Qν g = Qνi (t 7→ O Qν̂j gt ) , i ∈ Iν ∆ν̂j gt ) , i ∈ Iν , j≥1 and ∆ν g = ∆νi (t 7→ O j≥1 for g ∈ Z, gt is the function defined on Z N by gt (ŷ) = g(y), y = (. . . , yi−1 , t, yi+1 , . . .) , i > 1 and y = (t, y2 , . . .) , i = 1 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 10 / 19 Sparse Smolyak Quadrature Operator For any finite monotone set Λ ⊂ F, QΛ is defined by XO X ∆ν = QΛ = ∆νj ν∈Λ ν∈Λ j≥1 with associated Smolyak grid ZΛ = ∪ν∈Λ Z ν Theorem (Cl. Schillings and CS 2013) For any finite monotone index set ΛN ⊂ F, the sparse quadrature QΛN is exact for any polynomial g ∈ PΛN , i.e. it holds QΛN (g) = I(g), ∀g ∈ SΛN := PΛN ⊗ S , P ν with PΛN = Rspan{yν : ν ∈ ΛN } , i.e. SΛN = span ν∈ΛN sν y : sν ∈ S , and I(g) = U g(y)µ0 (dy). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 11 / 19 Convergence Rates for Adaptive Smolyak Integration Corollary (Cl. Schillings and CS 2013) Assume that the forward solution map U 3 y 7→ q(y) is (p, ε)-analytic for some 0 < p < 1 and ε > 0. Then exists (ΛN )N≥1 of monotone index sets ΛN ⊂ F such that #ΛN ≤ N and |ZΓ − QΛN [ΘΓ ]| ≤ C1 (Γ, p)N −s , with s = 1/p − 1, and, for ΨΓ (y) := ΘΓ (y)φ(u(y)), kZΓ0 − QΛN [ΨΓ ]kS ≤ C2 (Γ, p)N −s . with ZΓ0 = I[ΨΓ ] = Remark: R U ΨΓ (y)dµ0 (y), C1 , C2 > 0 independent of N. SAME index set ΛN for BOTH, ZΓ and ZΓ0 . Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 12 / 19 Convergence Rates for Adaptive Smolyak Integration Remark: SAME index set ΛN for BOTH, ZΓ and ZΓ0 . Sketch of proof Relating the quadrature error with Legendre gpc coefficients |I[ΘΓ ] − QΛ [ΘΓ ]| ≤ 2 · X γν |θνP | ν ∈Λ / and kI[ΨΓ ] − QΛ [ΨΓ ]kS ≤ 2 · X γν kψνP kS ν ∈Λ / for any monotone index set Λ ⊂ F, where γν := Q j∈J (1 + ν j )2 . (γν |θνP |)ν∈F ∈ `p (F) and (γν kψνP kX )ν∈F ∈ `p (F). ⇒ ∃ sequence (ΛN )N≥1 of monotone sets ΛN ⊂ F, #ΛN ≤ N, such that the Smolyak quadrature w.r. to (ΛN )N≥1 converges with order 1/p − 1. Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 12 / 19 Adaptive Construction of {ΛN }N≥1 Successive identification of N largest Smolyak contributions O |∆ν (Θ)| = | ∆νj (Θ)| , ν ∈ F j≥1 A. Chkifa, A. Cohen and Ch. Schwab. High-dimensional adaptive sparse polynomial interpolation and applications to parametric PDEs, JFoCM 2013. Set of reduced neighbors N (Λ) := {ν ∈ / Λ : ν − ej ∈ Λ, ∀j ∈ Iν and νj = 0 , ∀j > j(Λ) + 1} with j(Λ) = max{j : νj > 0 for some ν ∈ Λ}, Iν = {j ∈ N : νj 6= 0} ⊂ N Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 13 / 19 Adaptive Construction of {ΛN }N≥1 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: function ASG Set Λ1 = {0} , k = 1 and compute ∆0 (Θ). Determine the set of reduced neighbors N (Λ1 ). Compute P ∆ν (Θ) , ∀ν ∈ N (Λ1 ). while ν∈N (Λk ) |∆ν (Θ)| > tol do Pick ν from N (Λk ) w. largest |∆ν | and set Λk+1 := Λk ∪ {ν}. Determine the set of reduced neighbors N (Λk+1 ). Compute ∆ν (Θ) , ∀ν ∈ N (Λk+1 ). Set k = k + 1. end while end function T. Gerstner and M. Griebel. Dimension-adaptive tensor-product quadrature, Computing, 2003 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 13 / 19 Numerical Experiments Model parametric parabolic problem ∂t q(t, x) − div(u(x)∇q(t, x)) = 100 · tx (t, x) ∈ T × D , x ∈ D, q(0, x) = 0 t∈T q(t, 0) = q(t, 1) = 0 with u(x, y) = hui + 64 X yj ψj , where hui = 1 and ψj = αj χDj j=1 where Dj = [(j − 1) 641 , j 641 ], y = (yj )j=1,...,64 and αj = 1.8 jζ , ζ = 2, 3, 4. Finite element method using continuous, piecewise linear ansatz functions in space, backward Euler scheme in time Uniform mesh with meshwidth hT = hD = 2−10 LAPACK’s DPTSV routine Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 14 / 19 Numerical Experiments Find the expected system response, given (noisy) data δ = G(u) + η , Expectation of interest ZΓ0 /ZΓ ZΓ0 Z = U Z ZΓ = U exp −ΦΓ (u; δ) φ(u) exp −ΦΓ (u; δ) dµ0 (y) P u=hui+ 64 j=1 yj ψj u=hui+ P64 j=1 yj ψj dµ0 (y) Observation operator O consists of system responses at K observation points in T × D at j i ti = NK,T , i = 1, . . . , 2NK,T − 1, xj = NK,D , k = 1, . . . , 2NK,D − 1, ok (·, ·) = δ(· − tk )δ(· − xk ) 2 2 with K = 1, NK,D = 1, NK,T = 1, K = 3, NK,D = 2, NK,T = 1, K = 9, NK,D = 2, NK,T = 2 G : L∞ (D) → RK , with K = 1, 3, 9, φ(u) = G(u) η = (ηj )j=1,...,K iid with ηj ∼ N (0, 1), ηj ∼ N (0, 0.52 ) and ηj ∼ N (0, 0.12 ) Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 14 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 10 K Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| −4 N(Λ ) 10 k k Σν ε 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) −4 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 10 Leja, N =2 −1 Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 K R−Leja, N =3 K K 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 K 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, NK=4 −2 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| 10 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, N =3 K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =2 K −4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =3 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 10 K Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| −4 N(Λ ) 10 k k Σν ε 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) −4 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 10 Leja, N =2 −1 Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 K R−Leja, N =3 K K 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 K 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, NK=4 −2 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| 10 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, N =3 K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =2 K −4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =3 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 10 K Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| −4 N(Λ ) 10 k k Σν ε 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) −4 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 10 Leja, N =2 −1 Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 K R−Leja, N =3 K K 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 K 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, NK=4 −2 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| 10 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, N =3 K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 −4 10 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, NK=2 R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=2 −2 10 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =2 K −4 Clenshaw−Curtis, N =3 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε k N(Λ ) |∆ν(Θ)| Leja, NK=3 −6 10 −8 10 0 10 1 10 2 # Λ 10 3 10 Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) Σν ε 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| −4 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 10 Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K K Leja, N =2 −2 K R−Leja, N =3 K 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 K −1 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K 10 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) K K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 Σν ε Σν ε 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) −4 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 k K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) j 0 10 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.52 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) K K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 Σν ε Σν ε 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 10 2 10 # Λ 3 10 4 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) −4 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 k K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) j 0 10 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.12 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 Z’, ζ=2, ηj∼ N(0,1) 0 10 Z’, ζ=3, ηj∼ N(0,1) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 # PDE solves 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| Σν ε k N(Λ ) −4 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 10 K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K 10 K R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 Leja, N =2 −1 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 K 10 Z’, ζ=4, ηj∼ N(0,1) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # PDE solves 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # PDE solves Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 with respect to the number of PDE solves needed based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, ηj∼ N(0,0.5 ) 0 10 Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 2 10 10 # PDE solves 3 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) Σν ε 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| −4 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K −2 K R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 −1 Z’, ζ=4, ηj∼ N(0,0.5 ) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, ηj∼ N(0,0.5 ) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # PDE solves 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # PDE solves Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the posterior expectation of QoI ZΓ0 with respect to the number of PDE solves needed based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.52 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, ηj∼ N(0,0.1 ) 0 10 Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) k k −4 10 −5 −5 10 −5 10 −6 10 −6 10 −6 10 −7 10 −7 10 −7 10 −8 10 −8 1 10 2 10 # PDE solves 3 10 4 10 −4 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| N(Λ ) Σν ε 10 Σν ε |∆ν(Θ)| −4 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 −3 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 k K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 N(Λ ) R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K −2 K R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 R−Leja, N =4 −1 Z’, ζ=4, ηj∼ N(0,0.1 ) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, NK=3 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, ηj∼ N(0,0.1 ) 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # PDE solves 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 3 10 10 # PDE solves Figure: Comparison of the error curves of the Posterior Expectation of QoI ZΓ0 with respect to the number of PDE solves needed based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.12 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 15 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI Z 0 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,1) Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 −5 10 −6 −5 10 −6 10 −7 −7 −7 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 10 −5 10 10 10 −8 −4 10 −6 10 10 10 k Σν ε k N(Λ ) Σν ε k N(Λ ) −3 10 N(Λ ) ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 10 Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε K K Leja, N =2 −2 K R−Leja, N =3 K 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 K −1 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K 10 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,1) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the L∞ error curves of QoI Z 0 with respect to the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 1) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 16 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI Z 0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) K K K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 −5 10 −6 −5 10 −6 10 −7 −7 −7 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 10 −5 10 10 10 −8 −4 10 −6 10 10 10 k Σν ε k N(Λ ) Σν ε k N(Λ ) −3 10 N(Λ ) ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 10 Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,0.5 ) j 0 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the L∞ error curves of QoI Z 0 with respect to cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.52 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 16 / 19 Posterior Expectation of QoI Z 0 2 2 Z’, ζ=2, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) K K K Leja, NK=3 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Leja, NK=4 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 −5 10 −6 −5 10 −6 10 −7 −7 −7 10 −8 1 2 10 # Λ 3 10 4 10 10 −5 10 10 10 −8 −4 10 −6 10 10 10 k Σν ε k N(Λ ) Σν ε k N(Λ ) −3 10 N(Λ ) ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo −4 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 10 0 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=2 −2 10 Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=3 −3 10 K Leja, NK=3 10 10 Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Leja, NK=3 −3 ||(∆ν(Θ))j||oo K R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −1 10 K Clenshaw−Curtis, NK=4 Σν ε K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 K Leja, N =2 −2 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 R−Leja, N =4 10 j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 K R−Leja, N =3 −1 Z’, ζ=4, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) j 0 10 R−Leja, N =2 10 2 Z’, ζ=3, η ∼ N(0,0.1 ) j 0 10 −8 0 10 1 2 10 10 # Λ 3 10 10 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 # Λ Figure: Comparison of the L∞ error curves of QoI Z 0 with respect to the cardinality of the index set ΛN based on the sequences CC, L and RL with K = 2NK − 1 , K = 1, 3, 9, η ∼ N (0, 0.12 ) and ζ = 2 (l.), ζ = 3 (m.) and ζ = 4 (r.). Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 16 / 19 Conclusions and Outlook deterministic, gpc-based data-adaptive quadrature for Bayesian inversion and estimation problems for parametric operator equations with distributed uncertainty u Dimension-independent convergence bound CΓ N −s Γ independent rate s = 1/p − 1 > 1/2, N = # PDE-solves Γ dependent constant CΓ ∼ C exp(−b/Γ), b, C > 0 ind. of Γ Γ ↓ 0? Asymptotic Expansion δ Eµ [φ(u)] = X ZΓ0 ∼ ak Γk ZΓ as Γ ↓ 0 k≥0 =⇒ Richardson-Extrapolation w.r. to Γ ↓ 0 (SC & Schillings’13) Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 17 / 19 Conclusions and Outlook deterministic, gpc-based data-adaptive quadrature for Bayesian inversion and estimation problems for parametric operator equations with distributed uncertainty u Dimension-independent convergence bound CΓ N −s Γ independent rate s = 1/p − 1 > 1/2, N = # PDE-solves Γ dependent constant CΓ ∼ C exp(−b/Γ), b, C > 0 ind. of Γ Γ ↓ 0? Asymptotic Expansion δ Eµ [φ(u)] = X ZΓ0 ∼ ak Γk ZΓ as Γ ↓ 0 k≥0 =⇒ Richardson-Extrapolation w.r. to Γ ↓ 0 (SC & Schillings’13) Adaptive control of the discretization error of the forward problem with respect to significance in Smolyak detail ∆ν [ΨΓ ] No MCMC burn-in Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 17 / 19 References Calvi J-P and Phung Van M 2011 On the Lebesgue constant of Leja sequences for the unit disk and its applications to multivariate interpolation Journal of Approximation Theory 163 608-622 Calvi J-P and Phung Van M 2012 Lagrange interpolation at real projections of Leja sequences for the unit disk Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society 140 4271–4284 C HKIFA A 2013 On the Lebesgue constant of Leja sequences for the unit disk Journal of Approximation Theory 166 176-200 Chkifa A, Cohen A and Schwab C 2013 High-dimensional adaptive sparse polynomial interpolation and applications to parametric PDEs JFoCM 2013 Cohen A, DeVore R and Schwab C 2011 Analytic regularity and polynomial approximation of parametric and stochastic elliptic PDEs Analysis and Applications 9 1-37 Gerstner T and Griebel M 2003 Dimension-adaptive tensor-product quadrature Computing 71 65-87 Hansen M and Schwab C 2013 Sparse adaptive approximation of high dimensional parametric initial value problems Vietnam J. Math. 1 1-35 Hansen M, Schillings C and Schwab C 2012 Sparse approximation algorithms for high dimensional parametric initial value problems Proceedings 5th Conf. High Performance Computing, Hanoi(Springer LNCSE 2013) Schillings C and Schwab C 2013 Sparse, adaptive Smolyak algorithms for Bayesian inverse problems (Inverse Problems) Schwab C and Stuart A M 2012 Sparse deterministic approximation of Bayesian inverse problems Inverse Problems 28 045003 Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 18 / 19 Thank you for your attention & comments Postdoctoral Fellowships www.sam.math.ethz.ch Ch. Schwab (SAM) Sparsity in Bayesian Inversion June 20, 2013 19 / 19