JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 101, NO. B9, PAGES 20,151-20,163, SEPTEMBER 10, 1996 Diurnal/semidiurnal polar motion excited by oceanic tidal angular momentum B.F.Chao, 1 R.D.Ray, 2 J.M. Gipson, 3 G.D. Egbert, 4 andC.MaI Abstract. The axialcomponent of theoceanictidalangularmomentum(OTAM) hasbeen demonstrated to be responsible for mostof thediurnalandsemidiurnal variationsin Earth's rotationalrate.In thispaperwe studytheequatorialcomponents of OTAM andtheir corresponding effectson theorientationof Earth'srotationalaxis,or polarmotion.Three oceantidemodelsderivedfrom TOPEX/Poseidon satellitealtimetryareemployedto predict thepolarmotion excited byeightmajordiurnal/semidiurnal tides(Q1,O1,P1,K1,N2,M2,$2, K2).Thepredictions arecompared withgeodetic measurements of polarmotionfromboth long-termobservations andduringthe intensivecampaignCont94.The progradediurnaland prograde andretrograde semidiurnal periodsaretreated,whereastheretrograde diurnalpolar motionis not treated(becauseit cannotbe observeddirectlyanduniquely.)The comparison showsgenerallygoodagreement, with discrepancies typicallywithin 10-30micro-arcseconds for thelargesttides.The eightfidescollectivelyexplainnearly60% of thetotal variancein subdailypolarmotionduringCont94.Thisestablishes thedominantrole of OTAM in excitingthediurnal/semidiurnal polarmotionandpavesthe way for detailed studiesof short-period nontidalpolarmotion.The presentaccuracy,however,is inadequate to shedlight on theprogradediurnalpolarlibration. Introduction excitationvia the conservationof angularmomentumby the ocean tides. Two mechanisms are involved in this excitation Earth'srotationvariesslightlywith timedueto geophysical processes thatinvolvemassmovementon or withintheEarth. We say that these geophysicalprocesses"excite" Earth rotationalvariations,which manifestthemselvesas changesin boththerotationalspeedandtherotationalaxis orientation.The scalarvariationin the rotationalspeedis usuallyexpressedin process[e.g., Munk and MacDonald, 1960]: (1) tidal deformationin the form of tidal heightvariationthat changes Earth'sinertiatensor(referredto as the "mass"term); and(2) tidal motionrepresented by tidal currentthatevokesangular momentumrelativeto the solid Earth as a whole (referred to as the "motion"term). Connectedby the conservationof mass, theyarecollectively calledtheoceanictidalangularmomentum of the the length-of-dayif the variationin questionis longerthana (OTAM). In the presenceof OTAM the conservation day). The vectorialvariationin therotationalaxisorientation total angularmomentumof the solid Earth-oceansystem in thesolidEarth's rotation. relativeto the terrestrialreferenceframe is known asthe polar dictateschanges termsof thetime derivativeof the universaltime UT1 (or often Thispapercompares thepolarmotionobserved by thespace geodetictechniquesof very-long-baselineinterferometry (VLBI) and satellite laser ranging (SLR), with model Lambeck, 1980]. The one under considerationhere is the predictions ofdiurnalandsemidiurnal OTAM derivedfromthe TOPEX/Poseidon altimetrydata [e.g., Fu et al., 1994; Le Provostet al., 1995]. At anygivenperiodicity(suchastidal) the polar motioncan be decomposed into the progradeand 1Laboratory forTerrestrial Physics, NASAGoddard Space Flight retrograde components (or "wobbles") [Munk and MacCenter,Greenbelt,Maryland. motion. One importantexcitationsourceis the luni-solartides,as they influenceEarth's rotation in a variety of ways [e.g., 2Hughes STX,NASAGoddard Space FlightCenter, Greenbelt,Donald, 1960]. Here we treatboth componentsat the diurnal Maryland. and semidiurnalperiods,exceptthe retrogradediurnalpolar 3NVI, Inc.,NASAGoddard SpaceFlightCenter,Greenbelt,motion for which, for reasonsdescribedbelow, only the tide Maryland. modelpredictionswill be presented.In addition,resultsfor 4College of Oceanic andAtmospheric Sciences, OregonState UT1 thatareupdated fxomChaoetal. [1995]will be presented University,Corvallis. for comparison. Copyright1996by theAmericanGeophysical Union. Polar Motion Excitation Dynamics Papernumber96JB01649. 0148- 0227/96/96JB-0164959.00 Both kinematicand dynamiccomplicationsset the polar motionproblemapartfrom theUT1 problem.Kinematically, 20,151 20,152 CHAOETAL.:DIURNAL/SEM•IURNAL POLARMOTION UT1 is a scalarquantityandall observers agreeon its value independentof the referenceframe. The rotationalaxis orientation, however,is a referenceframe-dependent vectorial quantity: Whilemethods thataresensitive to absolute rotation (suchasthosebasedon gravimetryor gyroscopic principles) canpotentially makedirectmeasurement of the "true"polar motion[Chao, 1991], presentprecisemeasurements of Earth rotation have been solely obtainedfrom space geodetic techniques which measurethe relativerotation.The space geodetictechniquesdo not determinethe polar motion uniquely; instead,theyobservetheorientation of thecelestial ephemerispole [e.g.,Eubanks,1993; Soverset al., 1993; Herring and Dong, 1994]. As a result,the retrograde polar motion at the diurnaltidal periodsis observationally aliased withandhenceinseparable fromthecorresponding nutations. Thesetermsare relativelylargeastheyincludethe nutations driven by the externaltidal torquesand the polar motion resultingfromthelargesolidEarthfides. Dynamically,in contrastto the simplesystemfunctionfor UT1 excitation,the polar motion systemfunctioncan be characterized by a linearoscillatory systemwith two distinct natural frequenciesof resonance:the progradeChandler wobblewitha periodof about434 days,andtheretrograde free core nutation (FCN) of the fluid core manifestingas a in a right-handedterrestrialcoordinatesystem.Its physical excitationconsistsof (1) the massterm:the complex-valued quantityc whosereal andimaginarypartsare the variationin thexz andyz components of theEarth'sinertiatensordueto the massredistribution;(2) the motionterm:the complex-valued relativeangularmomentumh whosereal andimaginaryparts are simplythe x and y componentsof the relative angular momentum. Here ctoo andh collectivelyrepresent theoceanic tidal angularmomentum(OTAM). Whennormalizedagainst Atoo as expressedin equation(1), they representthe (dimensionless) excitationfor thepolarmotion. The first term in (1) arises from the Chandler wobble resonance. The numerical factors are the transfer functions [MunkandMacDonald, 1960]accounting for Earth'selastic yielding effectand the decouplingof the fluid core from the mantle. The second term arises from the FCN resonance. Exceptin the retrogradediurnalbandnearthe resonance,its transfer functions are much smaller than their Chandler counterpart(especiallyfor the motionterm),so thattheFCN term generallycontributesmuch less to the polar motion excitationthan the Chandlerterm, andpossibleerrorsin the FCN transferfunctionsbecomenumericallyunimportant. The mass term c in OTAM arisesfrom the tidal height, whereas the motion term h arises from the tidal current: retrogradenearly diurnal free wobble with frequency -(1+1/430) cycleper siderealday (cpsd)in the terrestrial (2a) frame[e.g.,Herring et al., 1986; Merriam, 1994]. In the retrogradediurnalband the near-resonance effect is very sensitiveto the FCN period and Q [e.g., Wahr, 1981] (especially forcomponents closest to FCN periodsuchasK1), sothatdetailed knowledge abouttheOTAM excitationof polar motionandnutation canin principleprovideusefulconstraints Inthese equations, a isEarth's mean radius; p= 1035kgm'3is c<t)= -a4 pf f ocean ;(•,t)sinOcosOet•'d• h<t) =-aSpf f o•ean [u<f•,t)cos0 +iv<fLt)lH(f•)ea'df•< onnutation modelsandthedetermination of FCN periodand Q. the mean densityof seawater;f• is an abbreviationfor the For the abovetwo reasons,we shallnot treatthe retrograde diurnal polarmotionspersein thispaperbutwill onlypresent thetide-heightandcurrentmodelpredictions in thiscase. Theequation ofmotionforpolarmotioncanbederivedfrom the Liouvilleequationbasedon theconservation of angular momentum [Munk and MacDonald, 1960]. Written in the frequency (to)domain,it is [SasaoandWahr,1981] p(6o) = 1.124 h(to)+ 0.772 c(tø) tøo Aa>o Aa>o (DO Atoo Atoo northwardspeed,respectively,of thetidalcurrentassumedto be barotropicandhenceuniformoverthe watercolumnwith depth H. Thesetidal variablesare providedby tide models describedin the next section.Thus our studyof polar motion procxeds by simpleapplicationof theprincipleof conservation of angularmomentum;the natureof the torquesthatgive rise to this motion need not concern us here. •cw - (• {DO 6.17x 10 '4h(6o) + 0.0734 c(60)60o ß elementfor the integral over the oceans.The tidal height relative to the seabedis (; u and v are the eastwardand Ocean Tide Convention and Models (1) fit)fc n - O0 To evaluatec(t) and h(t) of equation(2) requiresglobal modelsof oceantidalheightandcurrentfields.As is traditional, whereA is theEarth'sequatorial momentof inertia,o)oisthe thesemodelsaredecomposed into a setof discretefrequency components, or constituents, thus enablingevaluation of c(to) meanangularrate of rotation,tOcw is the positiveChandler angularfrequencycorresponding to prograde434.45 sidereal andh(to) in (1). This paperconsidersin detailtheeightmajor dayswitha Q of 170 adoptedfrom Wilsonand Vicente[1990] diurnal andsemidiurnal tidalconstituents listedin Table1 (Q•, (butseeFuruyaandChao[1996]),and(.Ofca is thenegative 01, P•, K1, N2, 342, S2 , andKa).Additional smallerfidesare FCN angularfrequencyat -1.00232 cpsd,corresponding to retrograde23.88 hours. The complex-valued pole locationp is givenin radians;its realpartis thex component alongthe Greenwichmeridian,and itsimaginary partisthey component alongthe90øElongitude, availablefromat leastoneof our analyses,andtheymay, in any event, be roughlyinferred throughadmittancerelationships [Munkand Cartwright,1966]. This sectiondiscussesthree global (or near-global)tide modelsandpresentstheir impliedestimatesof polar motion CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEM[DIURNAL POLAR MOTION 20,153 Table 1. BasicProperties of theEightMajor DiurnalandSemidiurnalTidesStudiedin thisPaperandtheFreeCore Nutation(FCN) Tide Period, AliasPeriod,* (Type) hours days DoodsonArgument** •: s h Potential,*** p X cm Diurnal Q• (L. elliptic) 26.868 9.13 1 -2 0 1 -90 ø 5.02 O• (L. princ.) 25.819 13.66 1 -1 0 0 -90 ø 26.22 P• (S.princ.) 24.066 182.62 1 1 -2 0 -90 ø 12.20 K• (S/Ldeclin.) 23.935 ,• 1 1 0 0 +90 ø 36.87 '23.88 -430 N2 (L. empti½) 12.658 9.13 2 -1 0 1 0ø 12.10 M 2 (L. princ.) 12.421 13.66 2 0 0 0 0ø 63.19 S2 (S.princ.) 12.000 182.62 2 2 -2 0 0ø 29.40 K2 (S/L declin.) 11.967 o• 2 2 0 0 0ø 7.99 FCN - Semidiurnal TidetypesL: lunar;S: solar. * As observed in inertialspace. ** Coeff•zients listedfor thefollowingangles: •:,meanlunarGreenwich time;s, meanlongitudeof Moon;h, meanlongitude of Sun; p, meanlongitudeof lunarperigee.Notethatif t is meansolartime,then'• = t- s + h. *** From Cartwrightand Tayler [ 1971]. parameters.We begin, however, with a brief review of some lagsproperlyreflectthe ocean'sphysicallysimilarresponse to see,for example,ourTables5 tidal conventions; sucha discussionappearswarrantedin so forcingat nearbyfrequencies; interdisciplinarya topic even thoughit will be well known to and6 wherephasesvary smoothlyacrossboththe diurnaland experts. semidiurnal bands. Not shownin Table 1, but evidentin expansionssuchasthat of Cartwright and Tayler [1971], are the many additional smallerspectral linescomprisingeachtidal constituent. For the listed,theselinesoccursignificantlyin only Along with the Kelvin-Darwin nomenclaturefor tidal eightconstituents constituents, Table 1 liststhe tidal (cosine)arguments for the lunar tides; they differ in the fifth Doodson number (not eight fides.These argumentsimply use of standardphase shown), denotingdependenceon the longitudeof the lunar conventionslong used in oceanography [Doodson, 1921]. nodeandthusdifferingin frequencyfrom the fundamentalline Unlikesomeotherconventions, theDoodsonarguments, when by oneor two cyclesin 18.6 years.Thesenodalmodulations tabulated in numerical order,automatically classifythefidesby areparticularly important for 0•, K•, andK2.Obviously, they species, group, and constituent,without overlap and in shouldbe accountedfor in any tidal analysisbasedon short ascendingorder of frequency. (Recall that the classical time spans and in any tidal prediction. They have been accounted for in the oceanmodelsdiscussed below. definitions of a tidalspecies,group,andconstituentare a setof rigorously tidal spectral lines whose first, first two, and first three In VLBI and SLR analysis,authorshave been inconsistent: Doodsonnumbers, respectively, areidentical[Doodson,1921; some have and somehave not allowed for them; fortunately, Munkand Cartwright,1966].Differentspecies, groups,and many of thesespacegeodeticdata setsare approachingtwo constituentsdiffer in frequencyby at least 1 cycle/d, 1 decadesduration,so the neglectmay not be socrucial. Onemethodof allowingfornodalmodulations is to adoptthe cycle/month, and1 cycle/yr,respectively.) The additional90ø increments in the diurnal band stem from Doodson's use of "nodalfactor"F and U, which vary periodicallywith the lunar cosine for all terms of (n+m) even but sine for (n+m) odd, node [Doodsonand Warburg, 1941] and are thussensibly where m is speciesnumber(1 for diurnal,2 for semidiurnal) constantoverperiodsof a few months.Any tidal constituent A andphaselag G canthenbe expressed as [A and n is the sphericalharmonicdegreeof the tidal potential withamplitude Tidal Phase Conventions (n=2 for all tideslistedhere).Finally,K• is 180ø offset, F(t) cos(lS'/(t)+ Z + U(t) - G)], where15is a 4-vectorof because itsamplitudein theharmonicdevelopmentof thetidal potential [Doodson,1921; Cartwrightand Tayler, 1971] is of opposite sign relative to the other three diurnals. Direct allowance forthisin thetidal argumentensuresthattidal phase Doodsonnumbersandl(t) is a corresponding 4-vectorof the astronomical variables in Table 1. This standard use of F and U assumesa constanttidal responsefor all lines within a constituent,which is sufficientlyaccuratefor our purposes, 20,154 CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNALPOLARMOTION saveoneexception: retrograde diurnallinesnear(.0fcn, where factthatsatellitealtimetersare sensitiveonly to the geocentric theresonance response in (1) violatesthisconstant-admittance tide:thesumof theoceantide,thebodytide, andtheradialload assumption.The aboveexpressionis followedin our tidal tide.For the lattertwo, purelyelasticmodelswere adopted. The tidal heights of model B were estimatedwith the predictionsof Figure 6 below, which does not include response method [Munk and Cartwright, 1966], which retrogradediurnalcomponents. Modelpredictions of tidalvariationsin polarmotionfollow determinesthe shapeof the (complex)admittanceacrossthe fromequations (1) and(2). The tOcw andtOfc nvalueswe adopt diurnal and semidiurnal bands rather than the (complex) for (1) follow Gross [1993] in orderto facilitatecomparison. amplitudesof individual tidal constituents.The response Our phaseconventionfor progradeand retrogrademotions methodthereforeyieldsessentiallyall major and minor fides followsMunk and MacDonald [ 1960, equation(6.7.5)], and within each band, although we use here only the eight is consistentwith Gross [1993]. The complexpolar motion, constituents of Table 1. However, rather than quasiindependent analysesof binneddataasin modelA (andasin corresponding to p(to)of (1), is writtenas theGeosat investigation of CartwrightandRay [ 1990]thatdid usetherespons e method),modelB expands eachresponse p(t) = A•,exp[io•,+i{(t) ] + Arexp[i•-i{(t) ] weight as a seriesof specialprecomputedoceanicnormal modes.This requiresa large-scaleglobalinversion(of 5300 where{[}(t)is the tidal argumentas given in Table 1, and estimated coefficients in thepresentcase),but it resultsin more subscripts p and r indicate prograde and retrograde, physicallyrealisticsmoothingof the tidalmaps,dependenton respectively. Tables6 and7 will be in termsof theamplitudes the• bathymetry throughthenormalmodes.The additional A• Ar andphases ai,,e•. atmospheric forcingat the S2 frequency was accounted for according to Cartwright and Ray [1994]. Ocean Tide Models FollowingCartwrightet fl. [ 1992],we estimatebarotropic tidal currentsfor modelsA and B throughhydrodynamical The threeoceanmodelsadoptedherearebasedon analysis relationships with the heightgradients.The methodrequires of the TOPEX/Poseidon(henceforth T/P) satellitealtimetry solving the following depth-averaged momentumequations (a measurements.T/P, launched in 1992 into a circular orbit of modifiedformof Laplace'stidal equations)for u andv at each 66ø inclination and1336km altitude, hasgenerated a multiyear time series of open-oceanheight measurementswhich, consideringtheir near-globalcoverage,are of unprecedented accuracy, approximately 5 cmrmsor less[Fu et al., 1994]. The mission benefits from several improvementsin altimetric technology, including use of a two-channel altimeter to compensatefor ionosphericpath delay and, mostlynotably, tracking systemsthat have yieldedradial orbit ephemerides accurate to approximately 3 cm rms [Marshallet al., 1995]. A number of tidal analysesof T/P data have been carried out (severalare describedin the T/P specialissueof Journal of Geophysical Research,99 (C12), 1994) [seealsoLe Provost et al., 1995;Andersenet al., 1995]. The threemodelsadopted here, althoughrelyingon essentially the samealtimetricdata sets, employ different methodologiesand are therefore locationat whichcurrentvelocitiesarerequired: 0t U-fv = -(g/a)csc00z(• - •o - T) (3a) 0t V'!'f u = (g/a)0o(t•- t•o- T) (3b) where g is the mean surfacegravitationalacceleration, f = 2tOoCOS0 istheCoriolisparameter, •o isthe"equilibrium" tide givenby(1+k2-h2)/g timestheprimarytidalpotential, withthe Lovenumbers ka andh2 allowingfortheelasticdeformation of the body tide. The term T accountsfor loadingand self- attractionof the tide and is here computedthrougha highdegreesphericalharmonicexpansion (to degree180) of the heightfield• [Hendershott, 1972]. F_xluations (3) contain noadvection terms,no viscosityterms, complementary. Themodelsarethoseby SchramaandRay [1994](version9405,hereinafterreferredto asmodelA), Ray in fact,no dissipative termswhatsoever. They areappropriate tothedeepocean.Thisrestrictionis acceptable because et fl. [1994b](version941230,hereinafterreferredto asmodel strictly B), andEgbert et fl. [1994] (versionTPXO.2, hereinafter even though shelf current velocitiesexceed deep-ocean referredto asmodelC). Briefly,bothmodelsA andB consist velocitiesby 1 or 2 ordersof magnitude,the small mass depth)associated withthesecurrentsimpliesthattheir of tidalheightsderivedthroughstrictlyempiricalanalyses of (shallow is of little importance (seebelow).Of thealfirne•c data,with tidal currentssubsequently deducedby angularmomentum inpurelynmx•cal hydrodynamical modelsof thetides, dynamicalrelationships; modelC resultsfroma formof data course, in shallowseasis assimilation that yieldssimultaneously globalfieldsof tidal carefulhandlingof dissipativemechanisms heights andcurrents. Othermodelsfor whichthetidalcurrents crucial;here thesemechanismsare implicit in our adopted are not explicitlyprovidedcannotbe used for OTAM (measured)heightfields. calculation. The right-handsidesof (3) are knownonce• is known. u, v aretheneasilyfound,excepting at the For model A, Schrama and Ray [1994] applied simple Velocitycomponents latitudes sin'l(o•tOo), where f= toandtheequations harmonic fitsto datacapturedin smallbinscovetingthe ocean critical in fact, are essentially singular(becauseof surface,the bin sizebeingdictatedby considerations of tidal are indeterminate, andmeasurement errorsin thefightaliasing. Thefourmajorconstituents M2,S2,K1 andO1 were physicalapproximations determinedin the form of correctionsto the Schwiderski[ 1980] model. As with all three models,allowancewas made for the sideterms).The criticallatitudesfor diurnaltideslie between 26.45ø(forQ1)and30ø(forK1);forsemidiurnal fidestheylie CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLAR MOTION 20,155 between 70.94o(forN2)and90ø (forK2).As Cartwrightet al. accomplish this.For now,we mustrely on modeldifferencesas thebestguideto errors.In fact,giventhedifficultiesof properly definingrealisticcovariances,includingin inverse-theoretical approaches,relianceon differencesof independentmodelsis notnecessarily a hindrance. Nonetheless, theheightfieldsof thesemodelshave beenwell be evaluated as usual. Test calculations show that the studied. Theyhavebeencomparedamongthemselvesand with anticyclonicvelocityestimatesbecomeunstablewithin about othermodels,within situtidegaugeand oceanbottompressure 5 ø of the critical latitudes. We have elected simply to measurements and with satellite altimeter measurements interpolatethe currentsacrossthe 10ø gap. Lesselementary [Andersen etal., 1995;C. K. Shumet al., Accuracyassessment approaches, invokinghigher-order spatialgradientsandTaylor of recent ocean tide models, submitted to Journal of seriesexpansions, mightovercomethe criticallatitudeproblem GeophysicalResearch,1996]. The comparisons suggestthat more accurately(G. W. Platzman,personalcommunication themodelA heightsmay be slightlymoreaccuratethanthose (1994), who points out an earlier discussionby Brillouin of modelsB and C, but the differencesare small, and all three [1932]).We havenotpursuedthisin any depthpartlyowingto modelsareconsiderably moreaccuratethananypre-T/P global the difficulties inherent in higher derivatives of measured model. (hencenoisy)heightfields.To ourminds,assimilationmethods No detailed studyof the current velocity fields has been hold morepromise,andmodelC to whichwe now turnis an undertaken. Yet we are confident that the model A currents are example. less accuratethanthoseof modelB or C, particularlyin the Model C is derived using a generalized inverse or diurnalband,becausemodelA heightshavemorepronounced assimilationapproachwith a shallow-waterhydrodynamic high-wavenumber noise(see the map of Schrarnaand Ray model [Bennett,1992;Egbertet al., •.994]. Tidal heightand [1994]),whichis compounded bythe requiredspatialgradients current fields are foundby minimizJ,•gthe misfit to both sea of equation(3). The normal-modeandrepresenter expansions level elevations observed by F/P and the classical of modelsB and C ensurethat their heightsare relatively hydrodynamical equations of Laplace,includingtheequationof smooth. In Table2 we showa comparisonof themodelcurrent continuity and appropriateboundaryconditions.For the velocitiesto reciprocalacousticmeasurements in the Pacific dynamicalconstraints, linearizedshallowwaterdynamicsare OceanbyDushawet al. [1995] andto a currentmetermooring assumed, essentially asin (3), butwith an additionaldissipation of Luther et al. [1991]. (The quoted uncertaintiesin the termincorporated asa linearparameterization of bottomdrag. acousticandmooringmeasurements are between0.3 and 0.5 A simplescalarcorrection(similarto that of Accad and mms4.)Although thissinglecomparison cannot replace a Pekeris[1978]) is usedto accountfor oceanself attractionand detailedglobalstudy,it doesshowthatthe modelcurrentsare load tides. The model domain extends farther north and south sensiblyrealistic.A comparisonbetweenmodelC and tidal thantheT/P coverage(seebelow),andall shallowcontinental constantsestimatedusingacoustictomographydata from the shelfareasconnectedto the openoceanwere included,to the AMODE experimentin the AtlanticOcean [Dushawet al., extent possiblewith the roughly2/3 degreegrid. Details, 1994] showsa similar level of agreement.There is also a includingtherelativeweightingof dynamicsanddata,andthe suggestionthat diurnal tides may be less accurate than [1992] discuss,if u andv aredecomposed into rotarycyclonic and anticycloniccomponents,it is only the anticyclonic componentsthat are indeterminateat the critical latitudes (stemmingphysicallyfrom the possibleexistenceof inertial currents of identicalfrequency);the cycloniccomponents may computational approach, aredescribed by Egbertet al. [ 1994]. Unlike semidiurnals. the methods of models A and B, the inverse Models A and B originally extendedacrossonly those overflown byT/P: 66øS to 66øN. Model C, by relying methodologyof model C providesa formal mechanismfor latitudes computingerror covariances andhencefor placingstandard on hydrodynamicmodeling,covereda slightlylarger range: in the errorson Earth rotationparameters.Work is in progressto 80øSto 70øN. The threemodelsarehere supplemented Table 2. EastwardBarotropic CurrentVelocityat 40.6øN, 163.0øW Diurnal Tides Semidiurnal Tides Q, o, P, K, N2 Me $• K2 Acoustic* 1, 64 ø 4, 101o 2, 132ø 8, 128ø 1,191 o 13, 223ø 5,272 ø 1,268 ø Currentmeter** 1,110 ø 5, 122ø 3, 141ø 7, 135ø 2, 216ø 13, 218ø 5,280 ø 1,280 ø ModelA -- 7, 149ø -- 9, 126ø -- 13, 226 ø 8, 272 ø -- Model B 1,104 ø 6, 116ø 4, 135ø 11,135 ø 2, 225ø 12, 216ø 8, 265ø 2, 263ø ModelC 1, 95ø 5, 110ø 2, 129ø 7, 131ø 2, 193ø 14, 219ø 6, 271ø 2, 275ø Amplitudes inmms-1,Greenwich phase lagsindegrees. Model A fromSchrama andRay[1994], model B fromRayetal.[1994b], andmodelC fromEgbertet al. [ 1994]. * FromDushawet al. [1995],representing anaverageacrossa 745 km path. ** From Luther et al. [ 1991]. 20,156 CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLARMOTION polar regionswith tidal heightsadoptedfrom Schwiderski [1980] modelfor modelA, from the strictlyhydrodynamic Data ComparisonResults Polar Motion model of Le Provost et al. [1994] for model B, and with tidal Data heightsandcurrentsfrom thehydrodynamicmodelof Kowalik Asin workby Chaoetal. [1995] (hereinafterreferredto as and Proshutinsky [1994]for modelC (majorfidesonly).The CRE95),twotypesofpolarmotiondatawill beemployed in reasonfor threedifferentsupplemental modelsis merelydueto convenienceand model availability during the courseof the work. In any event,the polarregions,beingsmallandlocated in extremehigh latitudes,are foundto contributelittle to the polar motion excitation.A detailed treatmentof the Arctic Ocean,including thehandlingof massconservation asit affects tidalUT1, is givenby Ray et al. [1996]. In Table 3 we tabulatethe completeOTAM for all three comparisons with tide models:"long-term"and "intensive". The primary long-term data are based on multiyear observations fromvariousVLBI networks, typicallywith24hour observing sessions separated by gapsof a few days. Independent algorithms havebeenappliedto theserawdataby variousresearchgroups[Soversetal., 1993; Gipsonetal., 1993;HerringandDong,1994;Gipson,1996],resulting in spectralestimates of thediurnal/semidiurnal tidalparameters. fromlong-term SLRmeasurements to satellite components for theeightfidesof Table1, brokendownto the Similarsolutions byR. Eanes(personal communication, massterm(heigh0andmotionterm(current)contributions. For LAGEOSareprovided space limitations we showonlytheresults frommodelC. In a 1996), which representupdatedvaluesfrom Watkinsand for theeightmajordiurnaland latersectionwe listthevectortotalsof the polarmotionexcited Eanes[1994].Theseestimates by theseOTAM for all models.For variations in UT1 the semidiurnaltidesaregivenin Tables5-7. As for intensiveobservationsof Earth rotation,therehave motion tenm from tidal currents dominate the mass terms from been four VLBI specialcampaigns, each 1-2 weekslong: shows similar behavior for semidiurnal OTAM. The situation ERDE(October 15-31,1989),Search92 (July31 to August9, (January 12-26,1994),andCont95(August23reversesfor diurnal OTAM in x and y directionswhere the 1992),Cont94 28, 1995).Samplingintervalsasshortas 1 hourareachieved. masstermsaregenerally,althoughnotalways,larger. paperwill focusonCont94[Gipson Beforeleavingthe topicof modelresults,we alsousethe AsinCRE95,thepresent theformalerrorsduringthisintensive OTAM integralsof modelC to investigate the influenceof etal., 1994],because shallowseasandto justifytheneglectof shallow-sea currents campaignwere a factorof roughly3 betterthanERDE anda in modelsA and B. Table 4 showsthe x and y OTAM factorof 2 betterthanSearch92.The formalerrorsduring components fortheM2 tideof modelC, withandwithoutthe Cont95are onlyslightlyworsethanthoseof Cont94,but the andthedataprocessing is stillpreliminary shallow seas.As expected,the currentsin shallowareas timespanisshorter purpose thatfocuses onsubdaily contribute aninsignificant amountto OTAM. Suchis notthe atthiswriting.Forthepresent variations, each day during Cont94 is analyzed independently; casefor the tidal heights,however.Tidal heightsin shallow of theseriesacrossthedailyboundaries serves watercanbequitelarge,andtheycontribute appreciably to the theagreement of the estimation. inertia tensor.Unfortunately,fidesin theseregionsare also assomeindicationof the goodness and axe not well ,.,,'"t,,',-,,,•, vm'5'ing rapidlywith d,o,,,-,•,•, ;ø*... UT1 Variation: An Update mapped withaltimetry.Shallow-water heightsanddeep-water currentsare undoubtedly the primarysourcesof error in our First, we shall updatethe major resultsof CRE95 with tidalheights[Baaderet al., 1983;Rayet al., 1994a].Table3 respect to the diurnal/semidiurnaltidal UT1 variationswith tide-predicted polarmotion. Table3. OceanicTidalAngularMomentumin All ThreeComponents Brokendownto theMass(or Height)andMotion (or Curren0TermsAccordingto Model C Diurnal Tides Semidiurnal Tides Q1 Ol P1 K1 N2 M2 S2 K2 Height 1.1,342 ø 4.4, 334 ø 1.4, 316 ø 4.5,312 ø 1.4, 349 ø 5.3, 12ø 1.4, 50 ø 0.3, 53 ø Current 0.8,305 ø 3.4,311 ø 1.5,293 ø 5.1,291 ø 1.5,247 ø 10.7,257 ø 5.8,293 ø 1.5,300 ø X Y Height 2.5, 218 o 11.3,222ø 4.3,222 ø 13.5,222 ø 0.4, 260ø 4.3,307 ø 3.3, 5 o 0.9, 2 ø Current 0.8, 209 ø 4.6, 207 ø 2.4, 192ø 7.8, 188ø 2.8, 160ø 18.5, 167ø 10.4, 199ø 2.7, 199ø Height 0.8, 136o 2.3, 159o 0.4, 0 ø 1.5, 26o 0.8, 69 o 6.3, 82 o 2.8, 127 o 0.9, 126o Current 1.3, 106ø 5.8, 119ø 2.3, 125ø 7.6, 125ø 3.0, 326 ø 15.1,318 ø 7.3,344 ø 2.0, 336 ø z Amplitudes in 1024 kgm2s'l;Greenwich phase lagsindegrees. CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLAR MOTION 20,157 Table4. Oceanic TidalAngular Momentum forM•.According toModelC Motion Terms (Tidal Curten0 MassTerms(Tidal HeighO x y x y Global(minusArcticOcean) 5.76, 12.3o 4.23,306.4ø 10.36, 257.7 ø 18.31,165.3 Noshallows (cutoff is200m) 5.36•18.3o 3.43•305.4ø 10.39•257.7ø 18.31,165.3 Amplitudes in1024 kgm2s'l;Greenwich phase lags indegrees. furtherfindings withinthepresent context.For comparison, two CRE95 basedon workby Gipsonet al. [1993], in thatmany pre-T/P tide modelswill also be listedbut withoutmuch moresmalltidal termsare includedin the datareductionusing discussion. One is basedon theempiricallyconstrained model theresponse method,andthenodalmodulation is allowedfor of Schwiderski [1980]; its currents were calculated by in 01,K1,M2andK2. Figure 1 examinesthe VLBI and SLR estimatesof UT1 comparedwith T/P tide model predictionsfor the best theoretical modelby Broscheet al. [1989]followedby Seiler determined tideM2. It tellsa morecomplicated storythan [1991],whosevalueswerelaterreinterpreted by Gross[ 1993]. presented in Figure2 of CRE95.Thelatter,whichis identical showed Table 5 augmentsTable 1 of CRE95 with two (yet to Figure 1 herebut withoutthe two SLR estimates, unpublished) independent setsof estimates forUT1 excitation thattheM2 spinlibration[Chaoet al., 1991]canlargely obtainedfrom long-termSLR: thatby R. J. Eanes(updated explainthe departureof tide modelpredictions from VLBI However,now with the two SLR estimateslying on from Watkinsand Eanes [1994], seeabove),and by Padis estimates. [1994].The VLBI estimatesaccordingto Gipson[1996] also the other side of the model predictions,the discrepancies tidalpredictions andSLR estimates obviouslycannot represents an improvedset of valuesover thosequotedin between Cartwrightet al. [1992] (seealsoRay et al. [1994a])in the same manner as for models A and B. The other is the Table 5. TheUT1 Amplitudes andGreenwich PhaseLagsfor theEightDiurnalandSemidiurnal Tidesin Table1 Diurnal Tides Q1 O1 P1 Semidiurnal Tides K1 N2 M2 S• K Observations VLBI Soverset al. 6.6, 37 ø 21.4, 39 ø 7.2, 27 ø 15.5, 13ø 3.0, 221 ø 18.2, 235 ø 5.2, 266 ø 2.8, 251 ø Herring/Dong 5.3, 36ø 23.6, 47ø 7.1, 34ø 18.9,20ø 3.2, 240ø 17.9,233ø 8.6, 269ø 3.8, 282ø Gipson 5.6, 31o 22.2,37ø 5.8, 25ø 18.6,29ø 3.7, 239ø 18.6,236o 8.0, 264ø 2.9, 283o Eanes 7.0, 29 ø 22.6, 400 5.8, 28 ø 18.2, 24 ø 3.5,247 ø 17.0, 251 o 9.6, 281 o 2.7, 283 ø Pavlis 5.0, 23 ø 25.2, 52 ø 6.6, 250 22.7, 36 ø 4.6, 234 ø 18.8, 261 o 4.2, 240 ø 3.3,225 ø SLR Predictions Brosche/Seiler* -- 35.2, 22 ø 7.1, 59 ø 18.7, 52 ø 7.5,231 o 35.3, 230 ø 18.1,260 ø -- 4.3, 18ø 20.4, 36 ø 5.9, 19ø 21.2, 27 ø 3.6, 240 ø 18.7, 244 ø 7.7, 256 ø 1.9, 260 ø ModelA -- 20.5, 29 ø -- 22.3,250 -- 19.4, 244 ø 7.7, 262 ø Model B 4.8, 32 ø 23.2, 39 ø 8.3, 39 ø 24.2, 38 ø 3.8, 250 ø 17.6, 25 1o 7.7, 261 o 2.1,260 ø Model C 5.6, 26o 20.1, 37 ø 5.9, 29 ø 19.7, 26 o 4.1,248 ø 17.7, 246 o 7.6, 267 ø 2.0, 259 ø Schwiderski** TOPEX/Poseid , • , Amplitudes inmicro-seconds (Its);phaselagsin degrees (seetextforphaseconvention). The observations includethosederivedfrom long-term VI_BImeasurements andthose fromSLR.References: Sovers etal. [ 1993];HerringandDong[ 1994];Gipson[1996]; Eanes [personal communication, 1996];Padis [1994];Broscheet al. [1989], Seller[1991];.Schwiderski [1980]. The TOPEX/Poseidon predictions arecomputed according toT/P ocean tidemodels; modelA fromSchratnaandRay [1994],modelB fromRayeta/. [1994b], andmodelC fromEgbertet al. [ 1994]. *As reinterpreted by Gross[ 1993]. **Tidal currentscomputed by Cartwrightet al. [ 1992]. 20,158 CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLAR MOTION Table 6. SameasTable5, but for theProgradePolarMotion DiurnalTides Q1 Semidiurnal Tides O1 Observations VLBI Sovers et al. 49, 54 ø 132, 54 ø 69, 92 ø 134, 51ø 23, 125 ø 22, 57 ø 21, 73 ø 32, 160ø Herring& Dong 35, 72 ø 199, 63 ø 60, 54 ø 152, 61 o 17, 135 ø 58, 91 o 12, 99 ø 39, 173ø Gipson 33, 81 ø 148, 74 ø 51, 60 ø 166, 63 ø 16, 108ø 62, 110 ø 14, 89 ø 15, 104ø 31, 81 ø 121, 71 o 57, 65 ø 178, 66 ø 24, 144ø 72, 117ø 31,110 ø 8.8, 115ø SLR Fanes Predictions Brosche/Seiler Schwiderski 29, 72 ø 181, 78 ø 55, 67 ø 172, 68 ø 22, 126 ø 105, 31, 68 ø 142, 71 ø 54, 55 ø 179, 58 ø 22, 115ø 81,104 ø 24, 76 ø 135, 76 o -- 160, 65 ø -- 72, 111 o 23, 82 ø 6, 80 ø TOPEX/Poseidon Model A Model B 22, 82 ø 114, 67 ø 49, 57 ø 150, 57 ø 15, 127ø 74, 120 ø 28, 86 ø 7, 90 ø Model C 27, 77 ø 142, 70 ø 56, 63 ø 171, 63 ø 17, 135ø 75, 116ø 29, 86 ø 7, 96 ø Amplitudein micro-arcseconds (gas). be explained by spinlibration.In fact, the two setsof estimates inadequate tidalloadingcorrections at groundstationsites.The (VLBI and SLR), thoughagreeingrelativelywell within resolution of this matter awaits further research. themselves, disagreeby more than two standarddeviations. Figure6a replotsthe predictedUT1 curveof T/P modelsB •his impliesthepresence of significantsystematic errorsin at and C, superimposed on the hourly Cont94 data from the leastonesetofobservations, andpossiblyboth,duepossiblyto NASA R&D networkas in Figure 1 of CRE95, exceptthat Table 7. SameasTable6, but for 'theRetrogradePolarMotion Diurnal Tides Q1 Ol Semidiurnal P1 Tides K1 Observations VLBI* Sovers et al. 37, 267 ø 265, 273 ø 174, 303 ø 62, 286 ø Herring& Dong 48, 282 ø 265, 272 ø 120, 304 ø 31,328 ø Gipson 46, 269 ø 257, 272 ø 128, 303 ø 18, 346 ø 28, 253 ø 253, 267 ø 124, 297 ø 33, 301 o SLR* Fanes Predictions Brosche/Seiler 83, 201 ø 881,153 ø 8865, 148 ø 40, 249 ø 303, 240 ø 232, 287 ø 39, 304 ø 142, 305 ø 804, 139 ø 9400, 135 ø 35, 267 ø 251,278 ø 135,303 ø Model A -- 167, 305 o _ 9510, 129 o 245, 271ø 121,298 ø Model B 68, 321 o 200, 314 ø 838, 138 ø 9700, 135 ø 46, 267 ø 262, 274 ø 140, 303 ø 40, 301 o Model C 45, 307 ø 132, 297 ø 797, 136 ø 9670, 133 ø 45, 269 ø 263, 271ø 131,298 ø 34, 301 o Schwiderski 38, 306ø TOPEX/Poseidon *The observedretrogradediurnalvaluesareabsentfor thereasonsgivenin thetext. CHAO ET AL.' DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLAR MOTION I I 20,159 I 50 Libration .__ 0 - •. -50 P -100 o ._o •-•5o '• -200 VLBI -15 O -25O SLRI I Ocean models -300 -20 -20 • I I I -15 -10 -5 0 I i 5 AUT1 In-phase (I,I.s) VLBI 50 i - 100 i -50 i i i i i 0 50 100 150 200 In-phase(rnicro-arcsecond) M 2 polar Figure 1. ThephasordiagramforUT1 variationat theM2 Figure 2. The phasordiagramfor the retrograde motion according to Table 7: Three VLBIand one SLRperiod:ThreeVLBI- andtwo SLR-observed values(with formalerrorcircles), andfourtide-model predictions (threeT/P observedvaluesare givenasthin linesproperlylabeled.The models,as well as the Schwiderskimodelwhichwill not be shownin Figures2-5) are givenaccording to Table5. The corresponding contribution of theEarthspinlibrationis also three T/P tide model predictionsare shown as the heavy arrows. Consult Table 7 for individual identifications. plotted. 3. Theagreement between T/P fide-model predictions and observations is generally fairly good, especially for tides with somewhat improved fromthosein CRE95,andtheNEOS largeamplitude. Thebestdetermined component is networkdatausedin CRE95 in extendingtheseriesandfilling relatively retrograde M2; the agreement is within several percent, Or the1-daygaparenotincluded here.Theprocessing adopted 10I.tas.Thenextlargest component, prograde K•, also heregives slightly betteragreement withthetidalmodels than typically sees agreement withinabout 15%,orsome20 I.tas.Overall,the presented in CRE95. bestagreement isfoundbetween VLBI estimates byGipson here the Cont94 data are preprocessed in a procedure Polar Motion: "Long-Term" Comparison [1996] andT/P modelC predictions. 4. Theagreement ispoorer forsmallertides.Thisis alsotrue Soverset al. [1993]differwith Tables6 and7 listtheprograde andretrograde polarmotion, amongtheVLBI estimates; fortheprograde M2 andretrograde K2byuptoa factor respectively, fortheeightdiurnal/semidiurnal tideconstituents.Others fortheretrograde S2 andprograde K•. Figures2-5 plotthephasordiagrams for someof thebetter of 3, andlessseverely mayberelatedto theinternalinconsistency among determined tideswithpolarmotionamplitudes exceeding 100 Thereason micro-arcseconds (Bas),or about3 mmin poleposition. On Soverset al.'s estimatesfor thesefides obtainedfrom different eachdiagram,threeT/P tidemodelpredictions (theheavy VLBI networks. differences between VLBI and arrows,consultTables6 and7 for individualidentification), 5. Thereareoftensystematic The mostnotablecaseis the progradeK2, threeVLBI estimates, andoneSLR estimateareshown(andso SLR estimates. labeled).The separation betweenestimatesindicatesthe wheretwo of thethreeVLBI estimateshave anomalouslylarge amplitudes (judging fromthesmalltidalpotential forthisfide uncertainties associated with eachtype of estimate. Several facts are noted as follows: • in Table 1) and diversephases.Gipson's [1996] VLBI 1.Thelargeamplitudes in themodel-predicted retrogradeestimatefor this tide is much less anomalous,while the SLR agrees muchbetterwithmodelpredictions. diurnal components duetoFCN resonance arelistedhereonly estimate 6. The Schwiderskimodel(with Cartwrightet al. [ 1992] for reference.As discussedearlier, no direct observationsfor agrees wellwiththeT/P models in theirpolarmotion themareavailable.Thelargestamplitudes dependsensitively currents) predictions, whereas theBrosche/Seiler modeloftenpredicts a ontheactualFCN periodandQ. larger effect. ThisisalsofoundtobethecaseforUT1 by 2. In general, thethreeT/P tidemodelsagreewellin their much of Schwiderski modelis polar motionpredictions, typicallywithin 5-10 •tas in Rayet al. [1994a].The accuracy surprising, giventhattheT/P elevation models are an•litude and10ø in phase. Thisisconsistent withfindings in somewhat CRE95 for UT1. significantly moreaccurate (Shumetal.,submitted manuscript, 20,160 CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL POLAR MOTION 180 I 2O 160 140 -2O o 120 -40 o o • 100 -6o 30 .o v E 80 -80 SLR 60 • -lOO 40 o -12o 20 -140 Libration -160 I i -50 0 i i 50 100 150 -50 I i i 0 50 1 O0 In-phase (micro-arcsecond) In-phase(micro-arcsecond) Figure 3.San•asFigure 2 butforretrograde S2polar motion.Figure5. San• asFigure4 butfor progradeO1polarmotion. 1996).Thereasonfor thispresumablyliesin certainfortuitous B andC (modelA is not plottedbecauseit hasfewer tide cancellation of the errorswhenthe modelis integratedto form constituents). The matchbetweenmodelpredictionsandobservations is the Earth rotationparameters. apparently quitegood, although notasgoodasthetoppanelfor UT1. This matchcan be quantifiedas follows.The total varianceof the Cont94polar motionseries(in its complex Polar Motion: "Intensive" Comparison tobe215in'units of103Ilas2,whilethenoise Figures6b and 6c presentthe hourlydataof the x andy form)isfound giventheformalerror[Gipsonet al., 1994]is about components ofpolarmotionduringCont94intensivecampaign. variance wefindthetotalvariance greatly reduced, to Superimposed onthemarethepredicted curvesof T/P models 26.Asexpected, ! !0, aftersubtraction of thetides(them•e!ves of variance122 according tomodelC).Therefore, assuming uncorrelated noise, approximately 1-(110-26)/(215-26) or nearly60% of the subdaily polarmotion powercanbeexplained by theeighttides (compared to thecorresponding -90% forUT1).Thisonone SL 160 140 handestablishes thedominantrole of fidesin excitingsubdaily LBI polarmotion, andontheotherhandindicates theexistence of important nontidal contributions. Besides observational noises andmodeling errors,themajorityof thediscrepancies seenin Figure6 canpresumably beattributed to thefollowing effects •-120 o • 100 ,?.o80 not considered in the oceantide models:(1) thepresenceof E othergeophysical sources suchassubdaily atmospheric and oceanicangularmomentum variations, dailyandhalf-daily atmospheric thermal"fides,"Earthlibrations (seebelow),and possibly earthquaY; (2)contributions fromtheresponse ofthe internalinhomogeneities of the solidEarthto diurnaland semidiurnal tidalforcing;(3) theneglectof smallertidesin the tide modelspresented here[cf. Seilerand Wlinsch,1995]. ._ v .e 60 (, 40 0 2o Libration Closerexamination of Figure6 showsthat the tide models almostalwaysunderpredict the diurnalandespecially the I -2O -50 I o , 50 100 In-phase(micro-arcsecond) 5O semidiurnal peaks. ThisistrueforbothUT1 (seeCRE95)and polarmotion. Similarphenomenon is foundwithrespect to Figure4. SameasFigure2 butfor prograde K1polarmotion Cont95dataaswell [Gipsonet al., 1996].Theinitialstudyby according to Table6. The corresponding contribution of the Ma et al. [1995] has indicatedthe importanceof the angular momentum andthermal tides; but,clearly, Earth polar librationis alsoplotted.ConsultTable 6 for atmospheric individual identifications. morecomprehensive investigations will beneeded. CHAO ET AL.: DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL i i i i i i i POLAR MOTION 20,161 ...... 50 -- -- 500 - - 0- - -500 - - 500 - 0 - -500 Diurnal retrograde removed 13 I I I I I I I I I I I I 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 January1994 Figure6. Comparison ofEarthrotation variations during Cont94 Campaign. Thehourly observations with standard errors arethosemadebyVLBI (theNASAR&D network); thesolidlinesarepredictions according toT/PtideModels B andC (seetext).(a)UT1 variation in unitsof Its;(b)x and(c)y components of thepolar motion(in unitsof Bas)withouttheretrograde diurnalcomponents. Polar Libration accuracies areinadequate forthelibrationto "close"thebudget evenfor the largesttidalpolarmotions. Besidesthe semidiurnal spinlibrations(discussed above), the luni-solartidal torquesexertedon Earth's equatorial Summary ellipticitygiveriseto diurnalpolarlibrations in theprograde direction [Chao et al., 1991]. The observedpolar motion Theoceanic tidalangular momentum (OTAM),consisting of shouldcontainthetide-generated polarmotionandthepolar the massand motionterms,excitesEarth rotationvariationat librations, thelargestamplitude of which(forK1)isprobably nomorethan15 gasdepending ontheinteriorproperties of the Earth. Thus,if sufficientlyaccurate,the observedand tidegenerated polar motioncan be differencedto reveal the all tidalperiods. CRE95established thattheaxialcomponent of OTAM is responsible for asmuchas90% of thesubdaily (primarily diurnal andsemidiurnal) poweroftheUT1variation. Hereupdated examples arepresented inFigures 1 and6a.The librationcontribution. One hopesthatthiswill leadto useful mainpurpose of thepresent paper,however, is to studythe constraintson Earth's interior properties,particularlythe equatorial components of OTAM andtheircorresponding equatorial ellipticity of thecore-mantle boundary [Chaoet al., effectson thepolarmotion. 1991;HerringandDong, 1994;CRE95]. The equatorial components of OTAM for eightmajor According toformulae givenbyChaoet al. [ 1991] underthe diurnal/semidiurnal fides(Q1,O1,P1,K1,N2,342,S2,K2)are present phase convention, thepredicted polarlibration is(14.6 computed according to threeoceantidemodels derived from gas,150ø) forK1 and(11.3gas,150ø) for Ot asplottedin TOPEX/Poseidonsatellitealtimetry.Agreeingwell among these predictions arethencompared withgeodetic Figures4 and5, respectively. Unfortunately, the departures themselves, ofpolarmotionmadeby VLBI andSLRlongwithinestimates fromeachtechnique, andhencetheestimation measurements uncertainties, are generallylarger than the libration.Thus, term observations as well as VLBI intensive measurements The prograde diurnaland similarlyfor UT1, the presentmeasurement and modeling duringthe Cont94campaign. 20,162 CHAO ET AL.' DIURNAL/SEMIDIURNAL progradeandretrogradesemidiurnalpolarmotionsare treated; the retrogradediurnal polar motion is not treatedbecauseit cannotbe observeddirectlyandindependently of the nutations by geodeticmeans. The comparisonshows generally good agreement,with discrepancies typicallywithin 10-30 Basfor the largesttides andprogressively poorerfor smallertides.Examplesaregiven in Figures2-5. Overall,the bestagreementis foundbetween VLBI estimates by Gipson[1996] andtidemodelpredictions POLAR MOTION Doodson,A. T., The harmonicdevelopment of the tide-generating potential, Proc.R.Soc.LondonA, 100,305-329,1921.(Reprinted in Int. Hydrog.Rev.,31, 11-35, 1954.) Doodson, A. T., andH. D. Warburg,AdmiraltyManual of Tides,His Majesty's StationOff., London,1941. Dushaw, B. D., P. F. Worcester,B. D. Cornuelle,and B. M. Howe, Barotropicand baroclinicfidesof thewesternNorthAtlantic,Eos Trans.AGU, 75 (44), Fall Meet. Suppl.,307, 1994. Dushaw,B. D., B. D. Cornuelle,P. F. Worcester,B. M. Howe, and D. S. Luther, Barotropicand baroclinicfidesin the centralNorth according to T/P modelof Egbertet al. [ 1994].Duringthe2 Pacific Oceandeterminedfrom long-rangereciprocalacoustic transmissions, J. Phys.Oceanogr.,25, 631-647, 1995. weeksof Cont94,the eight tidescollectivelyexplainnearly 60% of thetotalvariancein sub-dailypolarmotion,asshown Egbert, G. D., A. F. Bennett, and M. G. G. Foreman, TOPEX/Poseidon fidesestimated usinga globalinversemodel,J. in Figures 6b and 6c. 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