Congressional Candidates
17.251
Fall 2004
The Hierarchical Structure of
Running for Office
8th District 1998
Geography
Belmont
Watertown
Somerville
Cambridge
Boston
Chelsea
8th District 1998
Candidates
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mike Capuano (Somerville mayor) (19,439)
Ray Flynn (former Boston Mayor) (14,829)
George Bachrach (former state sen.) (12,166)
John O’Connor (rich husband) (11,035)
Marjorie Claprood (former state rep & radio personality) (10,358)
Chris Gabrieli (rich guy) (5,732)
Chris Yancy (Boston city council) (4,460)
Susan Tracy (former state. Sen.) (2,855)
Tom Keane (Boston city council) (2,150)
Alex Rodriguez (1,799)
8th District 1998
Schematic of support
Bachrach
Belmont
Watertown
Tracy
Capuano
Somerville
Cambridge
Boston
Yancy
O’Connor?
Claprood?
Gabrieli?
Rodriguez?
Chelsea
Flynn
8th District 1998
District Support
Expr1
42.4106
42.2618
A
A
A A
B
Y
A A
A
A A
O A BA
A A
B
A
B
B
O
A A A A
B B
B BB B A
A A F
B
B
B B
B
FF F F
B
O B B
A A
B B B
A
B B BAO
B
F
A A
B
B
F
B
B
OB A A A A
B
B B
O OB O
B
O
B
OO L
A
F F F
AA
O Y A
F F
F F AL
F F
A KK
O
T T F F LF
L K
L L
L
L L L F L LL
T F OF F
L L R
AB F
L
F
FL
F
R Y
FF F
F FY Y
F
Y
L F Y Y
Y
Y
F Y
Y Y
F YY
Y FF F
Y Y
Y F
Y Y YF F
F
Y Y Y YY
F
YY Y YY
F
Y
F
Y Y YY Y
Y Y
Y
Y
Y
F
F
F
B
A
A
A F F
F F
A F
F
F
F AF
F
AF
F
FF
F
F
F
F
-71.0043
-71.2037
Expr2
Strategic Choice and Political
Careers
E (ai ) = PiU i − Ci
E (a j ) = PjU j − C j
Some important considerations
• Variations in variable values
– across time
– cross-sectionally
• Factors that affect the calculus of
progressive ambition
Factors that Affect the CalculuI
of Progressive Ambition
BL vs. BH
-Scope of legislative
authority
-Political and policy
resources within the
institution
-Pay and perquisites
-Springboard effects
PL vs. PH
-National forces
-Party identification in
the districts
-Redistricting
-Scandal
CL vs. CH
-Opportunities
foregone
-Number and
quality of
challengers
-Fund-raising
efficiency
-Efficiency of
translating money
and volunteer time
into votes
Pay and Perquisites (some
examples)
State
Stipend
Travel allowance
Alabama
$10/day (C)
$2,280/month plus $50/day for three days during each
week that the legislature actually meets during any session
Georgia
Massachusetts
$16,200/year
$50,122.80/year
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
West Virginia
$128/day, set by the legislature.
From $10/day-$100/day, depending on distance from
State House, set by the legislature.
$200/two-year term No per diem is paid.
$11,236/year
No per diem is paid.
$15,000/year
$115/day during session, set by compensation commission.
$150/Day for attendance during interim.
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
Midterm loss
National tides
60
50
40
30
20
House
10
Senate
0
-10
-20
Year
Why the midterm loss?*
• Surge and decline effect
• Strategic voters
• Strategic politicians
*And
where did it go?
Surge and decline effect
D
D
R
R
R
R
R
R
D
D
D
D
Good Dem.
Pres’l Year
Midterm
Good Rep.
Pres’l Year
Midterm
Strategic voters
Pres’l
election
year
Midterm
w/ Dem.
pres. &
Cong.
D
Dd
R
Dr
D
d
Rd
Rr
R
r
Strategic Candidates
dHouse
Fitted values
dSenate
Fitted values
Fitted values
24.8506
Fitted values
5
1962
1970
1982
2002
1998
1990
1954
2002
1986
1990
1978
dSenate
dHouse
1962
1998
0
1970
1978
1954
1974
1966
-5
1994
1982
1986
-10
1958
1966
1974 1958
1994
-52.1926
-.02
-15
0
.02
.04
0
-.02
dRDI
dhouse = -29.0+1343dRDIq1
R2 = .71
.02
dRDI
dsenate = -3.7 + 134dRDI
R2=.16
.04
Incumbent-protection
gerrymandering
Belmont
Watertown
Limit to incumbent protection
• By removing parts of the district from an
incumbent in which s/he has developed an
“incumbency advantage,” an incumbent can
be hurt, even if added parts of the district
share the incumbent’s partisanship.
Incumbents, challengers, and
open seat candidates
• Incumbents
– Incumbency advantage
• Challengers
– Challenger quality
• Open seat candidates
– The free-for-all
Incumbency advantage:
The Picture
Incumbency advantage
• Why does it exist?
–
–
–
–
Franking, etc.
Constituency service
Redistricting
Smarter candidates