Introduction to the
American Political Process
Public Opinion
What drives public opposition to war?
z Mueller: External events – Casualties
{ As casualties rise, costs of war rise
{ Public will not tolerate high costs
{ Not explicitly political. Rests on notions of
collective rationality
{ Has been modified to include costs and
benefits – Larson (1996)
What drives public opposition to war?
zZaller: Elite discourse
{Mainstream Pattern: If elite discourse is unified,
more informed citizens will be more supportive
of war
{Polarization Pattern: If elite discourse is split,
more informed citizens will follow those leaders
who share their political views
{Role for political process and conflict
OPOR January 1941:
Evidence of Two-Sided Information Flows
More Important to Help England than Stay out of War
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Probability
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
1
Information
Approve FDR
Disapprove FDR
Roper March 1943:
Evidence of One-Sided Information Flows
U.S. Should Take an Active Part in an International Organization after War
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Probability
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
1
Information
FDR Supporters
FDR Opponents
Unanswered Questions
z What determines flow of elite discourse?
{ What are conditions under which elites remain
unified?
{ Perhaps arguments that have been made
about the mass public (aversion to casualties,
cost/benefit analysis) can be applied to elites
z Implications for theories of Democracy at
War
ABC News/Washington Post
"All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United
States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?"
.
4/15-18/04
3/4-7/04
2/10-11/04
1/15-18/04
12/18-21/03
12/14/03
11/12-16/03
10/26-29/03
10/9-13/03
9/10-13/03
9/4-7/03
8/20-24/03
7/9-10/03
6/18-22/03
4/27-30/03
Worth
Fighting
Not Worth
Fighting
No
Opinion
%
51
52
48
56
59
53
52
54
54
61
54
57
57
64
70
%
47
44
50
41
39
42
44
44
44
37
42
37
40
33
27
%
2
3
2
3
2
5
4
2
2
2
4
5
3
3
4
ABC News/Washington Post
Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has
there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq?"
.
4/15-18/04
1/15-18/04
12/18-21/03
11/12-16/03
10/26-29/03
10/9-13/03
9/10-13/03
9/4-7/03
8/7-11/03
7/9-10/03
6/18-22/03
4/9/03
4/3/03
3/27/03
Acceptable
%
Unacceptable
%
No
Opinion
%
33
34
37
33
35
37
43
38
42
44
51
66
62
58
65
62
60
64
62
60
55
57
53
52
44
28
32
34
2
4
4
3
3
3
2
5
5
3
5
6
5
9
ABC News/Washington Post
"Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to
war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?"
.
4/15-18/04
4/9/03
3/27/03
Right
Thing
%
Mistake
%
No
Opinion
%
52
81
69
46
16
26
1
3
5
Time/CNN Poll
"Do you think the United States was right or wrong in going to war with Iraq?"
ALL
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Trend:
2/5-6/04
11/18-19/03
9/3-4/03
7/16-17/03
3/27/03
Right
Wrong
Not Sure
%
53
79
52
39
%
41
20
41
55
%
6
1
7
6
55
55
63
61
65
38
39
32
35
28
7
6
5
4
7