World Development Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 999–1017, 2004 Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0305-750X/$ - see front matter www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.12.002 The Comparative Politics of Corruption: Accounting for the East Asian Paradox in Empirical Studies of Corruption, Growth and Investment MICHAEL T. ROCK and HEIDI BONNETT * Hood College, Frederick, MD, USA Summary. — Numerous empirical studies demonstrate that corruption reduces investment and/or slows growth. But how robust are these relationships? This question is answered by conducting a series of crosscountry regression tests using four different corruption datasets. We find that corruption slows growth and/or reduces investment in most developing countries, particularly small developing countries, but increases growth in the large East Asian newly industrializing economies. The latter finding provides solid empirical support to a country case literature that explains the East Asian paradox––the combination of high corruption and high growth––in terms of stable and mutually beneficial exchanges of government promotional privileges for bribes and kickbacks. Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Key words — East Asian NICs, growth accounting, comparative politics of corruption 1. INTRODUCTION Several recent empirical studies (Kaufmann, Kraay, & Zoido-Lobaton, 1999; Knack & Keefer, 1995; Li, Xu, & Zou, 2000; Mauro, 1995) demonstrate that corruption reduces investment and/or slows economic growth. Several other empirical studies (Smarzynska & Wei, 2000; Wei, 2000) extend these findings by demonstrating that corruption retards foreign direct investment and shifts the composition of capital flowing into countries with more corruption in speculative directions. 1 These results are largely consistent with the neoclassical rent-seeking literature (Boycko, Shleifer, & Vishny, 1995; Krueger, 1974; Murphy, Shleifer, & Vishny, 1993). Taken together, this body of theoretical and empirical work provides the basis for a new growth industry on good governance and development. 2 Just how robust is the relationship between corruption and investment on the one hand and corruption and economic growth on the other hand? This question is answered by conducting a series of growth accounting, or crosscountry 999 multiple regression tests of the relationships between corruption, investment and growth. What follows differs from other work on this topic in several important ways. To begin with, we searched for and collected data on all known published measures of corruption. This yielded four corruption data sets over four different time periods that provide the basis for what appears to be one of the most comprehensive empirical tests of the impact of corruption on growth and investment. 3 Unlike several other studies on this topic, corruption is defined as the use of public office for private * We would like to thank the Summer Research Institute (SRI) at Hood College for supporting this research. The SRI provides opportunities for particularly promising undergraduates to work closely with a faculty member on a research project. We would also like to thank Sang Kim, Jonathan Krieckhaus, Allen Hicken and his graduate students, as well as four anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Final revision accepted: 1 December 2003. 1000 WORLD DEVELOPMENT gain, rather than as institutional quality, bureaucratic inefficiency or the degree of red tape within a bureaucracy. 4 This provides a clearer test of the relationship between corruption, investment and growth. Our crosscountry regression tests are partially motivated by the observation that the relationship between corruption and investment and growth in our data sets appears to be different for small and large counties. 5 There are several reasons to suspect why this might be so. On the one hand, large countries have relatively large internal markets and similarly large supplies of labor. This enables governments in large developing countries to focus on import substitution (ISI) policies for longer periods of time than in smaller developing countries. This may help them fend off pressures from international institutions and foreign investors to curb corruption, particularly the kind of corruption associated with selective industrial policies and money politics (Khan & Jomo, 2000). 6 On the other hand, a large internal market and a large pool of labor may also mean that foreign investors are more likely to accept corruption as a way of doing business, if doing so enables them to gain unrestricted access to local goods and labor markets. Neither of these advantages is available to small developing countries. Their small market size means that they reach the limits of ISI fairly quickly and this should push, at least the development-oriented governments in small developing countries, to be more open to aid, trade and investment. By itself, this should expose small countries to more pressure to conform to emerging international norms regarding governance and corruption. 7 Similarly, small domestic markets and small pools of labor may mean that foreign investors are likely to be less understanding of local corrupt business practices. This combination may explain why governments in several prominent small developing economies with low levels of corruption––Singapore, Hong Kong, Chile, Botswana and Malaysia 8––have such high growth rates and why some large countries–– China, India, Brazil, and Mexico––with relatively high levels of corruption have such differing growth rates. 9 It may also at least partly explain why small countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, with high levels of corruption have experienced such poor development performances. Because of this, in Section 3, we test the hypothesis that cor- ruption is more damaging to investment and growth in small developing countries than in large ones. Country size is not however, the only thing that matters. As will be demonstrated, the impact of corruption on investment and growth also depends on the domestic politics of corruption. This can be seen in Figure 1 10 and in the comparative politics literature on corruption (Gomez, 2002; Haber, 2002; Hope & Chikulo, 2000; Kang, 2002; Khan, 1996; Khan & Jomo, 2000; Olson, 1993; Shleifer & Vishny, 1993; Szeftel, 2000; Tulchin & Espach, 2000; Wedeman, 1997; Weyland, 1998). Both suggest that the relationships between corruption, growth and investment are not nearly as simple as suggested by either the traditional rent-seeking literature or standard crosscountry regression tests. Figure 1 highlights what Wedeman (2002a, p. 34) labels the East Asian paradox–– the achievement of very high growth rates in real income per capita over relatively long time periods in the face of quite high levels of corruption. As will also be demonstrated, the region specific and country case literatures 11 can be used to understand the pattern observed in Figure 1 and to construct several new corruption variables that permit the testing of hypotheses based on Figure 1. Because of this, our research strategy is aimed at assessing the degree to which corruption slows or increases growth and investment in different regions and countries of the developing world characterized by substantially different political economies of corruption. To anticipate results, we find that the empirical relationships between corruption, growth and investment are not very robust unless one controls for both country size and the regional and/or country differences in the political economy of corruption. After making these adjustments, we find that corruption tends to slow growth and/or reduce investment in small countries in most of the developing world, but increase it in a subset of large East Asian economies characterized by relatively stable and strong governments with close and corrupt ties to big business. The next section suggests how the regional, case-based and theoretical literatures on the political economy of corruption can be used to test hypotheses linking different political economies of corruption to growth and investment. Section 3 describes the data and reports statistical results. The concluding section outlines the implications of our findings. COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION 1001 Average Rate of Growth of Real GDP per Capita 6 5 LEANICS SINGHKMA 4 3 SASIAP 2 MENA 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1 LAC -2 SSA -3 Business International Corruption Index Figure 1. Corruption and growth, 1980–83. Source: Business International corruption data are from Mauro (1995, pp. 708–710). Average real GDP per capita growth data are from Penn World Tables PWT (6.0). Country groupings are SINGHKMAL ¼ Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia. LEANICS ¼ China, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Japan. SASIAP ¼ South Asia and the Philippines. MENA ¼ Middle East and North Africa. LAC ¼ Latin America and the Caribbean and SSA ¼ sub-Saharan Africa. Rationale for country groupings is given in Note 10 and in body of text in Section 2. 2. THE COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION, INVESTMENT AND GROWTH The region specific and country case literatures suggest that the politics of corruption, or what Shleifer and Vishny (1993) label the industrial organization of corruption, and its effects on investment and growth are quite similar within different regions of the world, but quite different across those regions. For example, much of the literature on corruption in Latin America focuses on the role of hyperpresidentialism 12 in very costly high-level political corruption (Whitehead, 1989, 2000). As Whitehead (1989) demonstrates, in a significant number of cases presidents in this region have harnessed ‘‘. . .the whole apparatus of the state to the task of their personal enrichment’’ (Whitehead, 1989, p. 783). Interestingly enough, this tendency has not been affected by the substantial differences in underlying political economies. Both the region’s weaker states with relatively strong distributional coalitions (Argentina), and the region’s relatively strong and more autonomous states with rather weak distributional coalitions (Mexico) have been afflicted by high- level political corruption emanating from the president’s office (Manzetti, 1994, 2000). Governments (Brazil) with socio-political structures between these extremes (Evans, 1995) have been similarly afflicted by high-level political corruption (Geddes & Ribeiro Neto, 1999). High-level political corruption has been identified as a problem during periods of substantial government intervention in the economy, but it has also been a significant problem during periods of market-oriented economic policies (Weyland, 1998, pp. 109– 112). Recent experiences with double transitions––from authoritarianism to democracy and from interventionist to market-oriented economic policies––have been accompanied by even higher levels of high-level political corruption (Geddes & Ribeiro Neto, 1999; Manzetti, 2000; Whitehead, 2000). O’Donnell (1994, p. 55 & 62) suggests that this occurred because the severity of the socioeconomic crises attending double transitions enabled newly elected presidents to draw on long political traditions of caudillismo to rule by executive order or fiat. Manzetti (2000) argues that this facilitated the rise of unscrupulous business politicians (Manzetti, 2000, p. 130 & 135)–– those who engaged in politics to acquire 1002 WORLD DEVELOPMENT personal wealth. As he (Manzetti, 2000, p. 130) and Geddes and Ribeiro Neto (1999) argue business politicians in Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil took advantage of severe socioeconomic crises and weak checks and balances on presidential rule to engage in high-level political corruption. There is little evidence that such high-level corruption increased either investment or growth (Lopez, 1998; Schneider, 2002). A similarly distinct politics of corruption is visible in Africa. As Sandbrook (1993) argues, Africa’s post-colonial governments emerged under extremely inauspicious circumstances. To begin with, the region’s newly independent governments inherited skeletal states––bureaucracies with extremely limited technical capabilities and equally limited capacities to mobilize resources (Sandbrook, 1993, p. 25). These skeletal states were immediately burdened with overcoming the underdevelopment associated with their skewed export-oriented primary product economies and the legacies of slavery, racism, and foreign exploitation. Given the deep mistrust among Africans of markets, trade, and foreign investment, it is not surprising that both market-oriented and socialist-oriented governments adopted highly interventionist development strategies (Bates, 1981, pp. 29, 30–44, 62–77), including prominent roles for state-owned enterprises (Steel & Evans, 1984, pp. 16–28). These interventionist strategies ultimately failed because governments lacked both the political will and the capacity to support productive activities as opposed to predatory rent-seeking activities (Sandbrook, 1993, p. 22). To make matters worse, most of Africa’s newly independent governments came to power lacking even the most rudimentary political legitimacy (Sandbrook, 1993, p. 27). Under these circumstances, governments were forced to create some basis in civil society for their own right to rule. While political leaders in Africa might have tried to cultivate legitimacy by delivering development, most opted instead to foster their own personal legitimacy, rather than that of the state, by building patron–client ties with a tribalized peasantry (Szeftel, 2000, p. 432). As Szeftel (2000, p. 432) says, this ensured the domination of politics by ethnic leaders who mobilized their disenfranchized voters by offering them material benefits for their votes. Once in power, ethnic leaders were obliged to reward their supporters (Sandbrook, 1993, p. 26). This meant that the primary basis of politics and of cohesion within the state and between the state and civil society lay in the personal ties between government patrons and their client networks within government and in civil society. As Bratton and Van de Walle (1994, p. 458) say, neo-patrimonialism, political regimes where chief executives maintained authority through personal patronage, became the most distinctive and the core feature of African politics. Within government, political behavior was driven by competition for and, in the worst cases, outright bidding (Coolidge & RoseAckerman, 2000, p. 72) for those public offices that provided the most substantial basis for private gain (Sandbrook, 1993, p. 28). Outside the state, clients used their access to their patrons in the civil service to create, expand, and sustain lucrative unproductive rent-seeking activities. 13 Not surprisingly, Africa’s neo-patrimonial regimes spawned a wide range of exceedingly corrupt behaviors––from outright stealing of state assets, to padding of public sector payrolls, smuggling of export crops and precious metals, rigged bidding on government contracts, and kickbacks on subsidized loans and import licenses (Osei-Hwedie & Osei-Hwedie, 2000, p. 48–49). 14 Often incomes earned on corrupt transactions were either stashed away in foreign bank accounts or spent on luxury consumption. Given the short life of many, but not all, of Africa’s neo-patrimonial governments, corruption takes tended to increase in anticipation of regime collapse (Szeftel, 2000, p. 439). The effect on investment and growth of a political environment that encouraged chief executives, high-ranking civil servants and ordinary bureaucrats to loot state assets and heavily tax all productive activities was simply catastrophic (Szeftel, 2000, p. 427). 15 This pattern of neo-patrimonial corrupt activities thrived in a wide range of political economies in Africa. It took its most corrosive form in the region’s personal dictatorships––as manifested by Idi Amin in Uganda, Bokassa in the Central African Empire, and Mobutu in Zaire (Bratton & Van de Walle, 1994, p. 475). But neo-patrimonialism is also visible in the region’s plebiscitary one party governments typified by president Eyadema in Togo and president Bongo in Gabon (Bratton & Van de Walle, 1994, p. 477). Africa’s military oligarchies, or the military regimes ruled by a junta, committee or a cabinet, as in Jerry Rawlings in Ghana and Ibrahim Babangida in Nigeria, have also governed by relying on a neo-patrimonial politics (Bratton & Van de Walle, 1994, COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION p. 480). So have the region’s competitive one party states as in Zambia under Kaunda and the Ivory Coast under Houphouet-Boigny (Bratton & Van de Walle, 1994, p. 483). There is also some evidence that corruption based on a neo-patrimonial politics is not limited to subSaharan Africa. In at least one of the continent’s Arab regimes, Morocco, corruption rooted in neo-patrimonialism appears to have been essential to regime survival (Waterbury, 1973). 16 Unlike Latin America and Africa, no single unifying politics of corruption is visible in Asia. In three of this region’s high growth economies, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, high growth and investment have gone hand in hand with relatively low levels of corruption (SINGHKMAL in Figure 1). For the rest of the East Asian newly industrializing economies, including Japan, relatively high levels of corruption have accompanied high growth and investment regimes (LEANICS in Figure 1). In a number of other economies in this region, particularly in South Asia and the Philippines (SASIAP in Figure 1), relatively high levels of corruption appear to have been growth and investment reducing. It turns out that differences in growth and corruption outcomes in Asia can be explained by differences in the domestic politics of corruption. In Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia relatively strong autonomous states have worked very hard to limit corruption. 17 Given the openness of these economies to foreign trade and investment and development strategies rooted in linking these economies to the West, it is not surprising that high growth and investment in these small economies have been complemented by relatively low levels of corruption. Elsewhere in Asia high levels of corruption have been combined with political economies dominated by patron–client networks (Khan, 1996, 2000). As Khan (1996, p. 691) argues governments in Asia have historically relied on these networks to implement their economic and political strategies. Their ability to do so has been determined by the form that patron– client networks take. In patrimonial patron– client networks, the distribution of power between government patrons and clients in civil society is tilted toward the state. Because state patrons are strong relatively to their clients in civil society, polities driven by patrimonial patron–client networks have sometimes been able to allocate and protect new growth enhancing property rights. 18 But in political 1003 economies, where patron–client networks are dominated by clients rather than by patrons, governments typically lack the power, relative to their clients in civil society, to allocate and enforce existing or new property rights. 19 In the former case, corruption can be growth and/ or investment increasing, while in the latter case, it typically reduces investment and/or slows growth. The regional and country case literature linking corruption to investment and growth is largely consistent with the recent theoretical literature on corruption, investment and growth. In an influential essay, Shleifer and Vishny (1993) argue that the impact of corruption on growth depends on the industrial organization of corruption networks. When those networks are organized and managed by a strong centralized state, as in a monopoly industry, corruption is likely to be less corrosive to investment and growth than when it is organized by numerous government officials acting as independent monopolists. In fact, when the latter happens, bribes rise to infinity and growth and investment collapse (Shleifer & Vishny, 1993, p. 606). How might these differences in the organization of corruption networks account for what we see in the regional and country case literature on corruption and in Figure 1? Perhaps the large East Asian NICs high-corruption high-investment and growth outcomes reflect monopoly control of corruption networks by strong overcentralized states, while South Asia’s and the Philippines’ highcorruption, low-investment, low-growth outcomes reflect control of corruption networks by competing monopolists in government. There is substantial case study evidence (Bardhan, 1997, p. 1324; Hutchcroft, 1994; Johnson, 1987, 1999; Kang, 2002; Khan, 1996, 2000; Rock, 2002 and Notes 18 and 19) to support this conclusion. By itself, however, differences in the industrial organization of corruption may not be entirely sufficient to explain all the different patterns observed in Figure 1. Olson (1993) suggests what else matters. His objective is to explain why economic agents in any domain (country) might prefer a government of stationary bandits to one of roving bandits. As he (1993, p. 568) says, rational (and successful) stationary bandits will monopolize theft (corruption) in their domain while limiting what they steal because they know they will be able to extract more in the long run if their subjects have an incentive to invest and produce additional income and wealth. The prospect of a 1004 WORLD DEVELOPMENT future income stream from the monopolization of theft may even encourage governments of stationary bandits to provide the public goods that enable economic agents in stationary bandits’ domains to generate even higher incomes and more wealth. Since roving bandits have short time horizons, they have few incentives to limit theft and no incentives to provide the public goods necessary to entice residents in their domains to invest and increase their incomes. Because of this, Olson suggests that investment and growth should be lower in countries governed by roving bandits. On the other hand, he asserts that if stationary bandits are committed to growth and development as a way of maximizing their long-run corruption takes, investment and growth might be substantially higher in countries governed by stationary bandits. What this means is that the impact of corruption on growth and investment depends on both the industrial organization of corruption and the time horizon of those who control corruption networks. Table 1 presents a twoby-two table of four possible growth–investment–corruption outcomes based on differences in the industrial organization of corruption and in time horizons of those who control corruption networks. Governments (bandits) can either be roving bandits with short time horizons or stationary bandits with long time horizons. Corruption networks can either be monopolized by a strong centralized state (bandit) or fragmented and controlled by a significant number of independent monopolists (bandits). In all but one instance, exhibited by stationary bandits with long time horizons, corruption should reduce investment and/or slow growth. This combination appears to capture the essence of the role of corruption in East Asia’s large developmental states. In these states, relatively strong, stable and autonomous central governments have used their discretionary power to create, allocate and protect new property rights (promotional privileges) for new groups in civil society (capitalists and entrepreneurs). These governments’ developmental orientation appears to have led them to take a long-run view of banditry (corruption). Because of this they have invested heavily in public goods and they exert near monopoly control over the corruption networks they created. This enables them to offer promotional privileges in exchange for bribes and kickbacks that they use to consolidate their political power and enrich themselves. In each of the other combinations in Table 1, corruption reduces investment and/or slows growth. 20 When corruption networks are controlled by a significant number of roving bandits who act as independent monopolists, as is typical in at least some of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, extremely weak states have been sustained by multiple patron–client networks controlled by one or more ethnic groups with extremely short time horizons. In this world, each independent monopolist within the state extracts as much as they can as fast as they can from both the state and the private sector. Because those who control each corruption network expect to be replaced in a relatively short period of time, there is little Table 1. Corruption and growth regimes Industrial organization of corruption networks Strong centralized governments, at least for executives, who exert monopoly control over corruption networks Weak and fragmented governments with multiple independent monopolists controlling corruption networks Time horizon of government officials (bandits) Short for roving bandits Long for stationary bandits Business politicians in hyper-presidential regimes in Latin America (as in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) East Asia’s developmental states establish beneficial relations with capitalists by providing promotional privileges in exchange for bribes and kickbacks Effects of corruption on growth ()) Effects of corruption on growth (+) Africa’s neo-patrimonial regimes, particularly those with substantial political instability India and the Philippines in the late Marcos and post-Marcos era Effects of corruption on growth ()) Effects of corruption on growth ()) COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION incentive to invest in public goods or develop mutually beneficial relationships with anyone in the private sector. Simple looting and plunder dominate decision-making. This is not the only way in which corruption can reduce investment and slow growth. Corruption networks, particularly the costly highlevel corruption networks that predominate in a number of countries in Latin America, can also be monopolized by business-politicians turned presidents with short time horizons. These presidents, especially in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, have routinely demonstrated a lack of interest in public investment, except to the degree that it provides an additional opportunity for corruption, and they have routinely used their presidential powers to enrich themselves as quickly as possible. Said another way, these presidents (monopolists) have shown a predilection to behave as roving bandits reducing investment and slowing growth. Finally, corruption networks can be controlled by a significant number of independent monopolists in governments who tend to have long time horizons. This condition exists in India, the Philippines, and in several regimes in sub-Saharan Africa, such as in Zambia under President Kaunda and Kenya under President Moi. Governments in these conditions tend to be weak and easily penetrated by their clients in civil society who routinely use their ties to their patrons in government to extract unproductive re-distributive rents. Sometimes those rents go to some in the emerging middle classes, particularly when they are offered jobs in the public sector. Sometimes those rents go to capitalists and landlords who use their ties to their patrons in government to gain and keep protection. In neither instance is corruption likely to exert a positive effect on investment or growth. 3. DATA AND EMPIRICAL TESTS Empirical tests of hypotheses relating corruption to investment and growth are motivated by the vast growth accounting literature as well as by the need to test for the robustness of regression coefficients of particular interest (Levine & Renelt, 1992). 21 Data constraints, particularly on corruption variables, led to estimation of four different sets of crosscountry regressions for four different time periods–– 1980–83, 1988–92, 1984–96 and 1994–96. In each instance, variables are calibrated as close 1005 as possible to the time period covered by each measure of corruption. This enables us to avoid the pitfall evidenced in Mauro (1995, pp. 690, 699 & 702–703) of assuming that the average level of corruption measured in one period (1980–83) is the same as the average over a much longer period (1960–85). 22 As the Political Risk Services’ (Political Risk Service, 2002) time series data on corruption during 1984–96 shows, this assumption is a not a particularly good one. 23 We made four adjustments to these basic corruption variables. As is well known, each of our corruption variables was originally scaled so that an increase in the measured variable indicated a decline in corruption. To begin with, we simply re-scaled each corruption variable so that an increase signifies an increase in corruption. To capture the impact of corruption on investment and growth in developing countries we created several new corruption variables. The first is a simple developing country corruption variable where, for example, for the Business International corruption score BILDC ¼ 0 if the country is a developed country and BILDC ¼ the country’s corruption score if the country is a developing country. This particular developing country corruption variable is constructed on a traditional neoclassical rent-seeking hypothesis that increases (reductions) in corruption anywhere in the developing world slow (increase) investment and reduce (raise) growth. Since the region and country case literature suggests that corruption is likely to be investment and growth reducing everywhere in the developing world except in the large East Asian newly industrializing countries (NICs) we created two other developing country corruption variables. The first is an ‘‘other developing country’’ corruption variable. For this variable, as in BIOLDC for the Business International corruption variable, BIOLDC ¼ 0 if a country is a developed country or one of our large East Asian newly industrializing economies and BIOLDC ¼ the country’s corruption score if the country lies elsewhere in the developing world. Finally, we created a ‘‘large East Asian NIC’’ corruption variable. 24 For this variable, as in BILEANIC for the Business International corruption variable, BILEANIC ¼ 0 if a country is a developed country, a developing country outside East Asia, or an East Asian non-NIC developing country and BILEANIC ¼ the country’s corruption score if the country is a large East Asian NIC. This process was 1006 WORLD DEVELOPMENT repeated for each corruption variable in each time period. In all, this yielded 12 new developing country corruption variables, three for each corruption variable. 25 Following standard practice in growth accounting (Barro, 1991; Levine & Renelt, 1992; Mankiw, Romer, & Weil, 1992), dependent variables include the average investment share in real GDP in PPP$ and the average rate of growth of real GDP per capita in PPP$ over certain time periods. As is typical of crosscountry regression studies of corruption (Knack & Keefer, 1995; Li et al., 2000; Mauro, 1995) initial regressions focus on the re-scaled redefined regional corruption variables on the dependent variables. To these simple regressions of corruption on investment and growth, a standard basic list of regressors including initial income per capita in 1960 (GDPN60), the average population growth rate (POPG), and the secondary school enrollment ratio in 1960 (SEC60) is added. 26 To these base regression equations, robustness tests are carried out by adding a small list of other variables generally agreed to affect crosscountry differences in investment to GDP ratios and growth rates in real GDP per capita. These other variables include the share of exports plus imports or trade in GDP, TRDY/GDP, the share of government consumption in GDP, GOVCY/ GDP, price distortions in the investment deflator, PPIDEV60, in 1960, and ethno-linguistic fractionalization, ETHNIC. 27 All variable definitions and their sources appear in the Appendix. Results of estimation 28 for each of the ‘‘all developing country’’ corruption variables, BILDC, TILDC, IRLDC and WBLDC appear in Table 2. 29 Several important results stand out. First, two of the four ‘‘all developing country’’ corruption variables, BILDC and TILDC, are not statistically significant in either the investment or the growth equation. In two out of four instances, these variables have the wrong sign. On the other hand, IRLDC has the expected sign ()) and is robust for the investment equation, but not for the growth equation, while WBLDC has the expected sign ()) and is robust for both the investment and growth equations. These findings, particularly for IRLDC and WBLDC, provide what appears to be modest support for the neoclassical rent-seeking literature, which hypothesizes that corruption reduces investment and/or slows growth. But when Chow F breakpoint tests for large and small countries are applied to the robustness test equations in Table 2, they reveal statistically significant structural breaks in investment equations for TILDC, IRLDC and WBLDC and structural breaks in growth equations for BILDC and WBLDC. Moreover, when the robustness test equations are re-estimated for large and small countries for IRLDC and WBLDC (Table 3), empirical results are substantially different. To begin with, none of the large country ‘‘all developing country’’ corruption variables are statistically significant and in two out of four cases, those corruption variables have the wrong sign (+). On the other hand, the ‘‘all developing country’’ corruption variables for small countries are statistically significant with the expected sign ()) and robust for the investment equation for IRLDC and they are statistically significant with the expected sign ()) and robust for the investment and growth equations for WBLDC. This finding offers powerful support for the hypothesis that corruption is more damaging to investment and growth in small developing countries than it is in large developing countries. By itself, this may explain why developmentoriented governments in small developing countries that adopt strong anti-corruption programs such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Botswana and Chile tend to grow faster than those with more corruption. Replacing the ‘‘all developing country’’ corruption variables, such as BILDC, with the ‘‘other developing country’’ corruption variables, such as BIOLDC, and the ‘‘large East Asian newly industrializing economies’’ corruption variables, such as BILEANIC, yields other interesting results (Table 4). Several deserve mention. To begin with, the ‘‘other developing countries’’ corruption variables, BIOLDC, TIOLDC, IROLDC and WBOLDC are statistically significant with the expected sign ()) in three out of four investment equations and in one of the growth equations (for WBOLDC). At the same time, the ‘‘large East Asian NIC’’ corruption variables, BILEANIC, TILEANIC, IRLEANIC and WBLEANIC, always have the expected sign (+) and are always statistically significant in the growth equations, but none are statistically significant in the investment equations. One additional finding, pointed out by an anonymous reviewer, deserves mention. As is well known, Kaufmann et al. (1999, p. 9) use an unobserved components model to generate the World 0.49 0.62 58 1 17.52 7.95E)05 (0.22)a )0.99 ()0.94) 0.09 (1.38) 0.08 (8.10) )0.19 ()1.50) )0.06 (2.80) )2.87 (0.98) )0.03 ()0.06) I/Y 2.61 0.48 47 )0.62 ()0.85) 2 24.17 )0.0004 ()0.80) )1.96 ()1.42) 0.06 (0.78) 0.05 (2.70) )0.03 ()0.19) )0.01 ()2.21) )4.82 ()1.23) I/Y 6.11 0.54 79 )2.05 (2.58) 3 21.64 )0.0005 ()1.06) )0.82 ()0.72) 0.13 (2.24) 0.05 (3.01) )0.20 ()1.34) )0.01 ()2.62) )2.75 ()1.06) I/Y )3.77 ()2.42) 5.21 0.49 90 4 18.26 )0.0001 ()0.49) )1.68 ()1.19) 0.10 (1.77) 0.03 (2.13) )0.09 ()1.11) )0.01 ()2.02) )4.62 ()1.76) I/Y 2.56 0.14 58 5 0.06 )0.0001 ()1.02) )0.65 ()0.98) 0.04 (1.94) 0.02 (3.95) )0.05 ()0.95) )0.002 ()0.21) )0.35 ()0.17) 0.21 (0.77) GDPNG 1.79 0.28 47 0.15 (0.60) 6 4.90 )0.0002 ()1.68) )0.91 ()1.73) 0.01 (0.61) 0.01 (2.44) )0.11 ()1.37) 0.002 (0.84) )2.76 ()1.59) GDPNG 1.37 0.29 79 )0.16 (0.53) 7 5.72 )0.0003 ()2.67) )1.04 (2.87) 0.01 (0.93) 0.01 (3.17) )0.09 ()1.55) )0.0008 ()0.23) )1.12 ()1.08) GDPNG )2.14 ()2.62) 1.99 0.26 90 8 6.75 )0.0002 ()2.08) )1.25 ()2.61) 0.02 (0.71) )0.001 ()0.32) )0.09 ()2.28) 0.0002 (0.02) )0.68 ()0.57) GDPNG a Numbers in parentheses are t values. Estimation is with White’s heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. The Chow F statistic is a structural breakpoint test statistic. * Significant at the 0.10 level. ** Significant at the 0.05 level. *** Significant at the 0.01 level. Chow F 2 R N WBLDC IRLDC TILDC BILDC ETHNIC PPID60 GOVCY TRDY SEC60 POPG Equation C GDPN60 Dependent variable Table 2. OLS robustness test regression equations for all developing country corruption variables––BILDC, TILDC, IRLDC and WBLDC a COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION 1007 0.74 POP < 20 50 1 6.58 0.0002 (0.58) 1.30 (1.15) 0.16 (2.17) 0.07 (3.76) )0.04 ()0.24) )0.009 ()1.85) )1.74 ()0.63) )1.49 ()2.06) I/Y 0.63 POP > 20 29 2 33.10 )0.0008 ()1.51) )5.59 ()2.52) 0.08 (0.99) 0.16 (3.45) )0.60 ()1.60) )0.01 ()0.85) )1.60 ()0.35) )1.47 ()0.93) I/Y 0.26 POP < 20 50 3 3.51 )0.0001 ()0.98) )0.69 ()1.42) 0.01 (0.36) 0.01 (4.19) )0.07 ()0.97) 0.002 (0.96) )2.00 ()1.40) 0.07 (0.33) GDPNG 0.49 POP > 20 29 4 0.82 )0.0005 ()1.83) )2.04 ()2.74) 0.07 (1.93) 0.04 (3.31) 0.07 (0.67) )0.02 ()1.61) 0.25 (0.17) 0.75 (1.32) GDPNG )4.22 ()3.09) 0.67 POP < 20 59 5 7.94 0.0005 (1.68) 1.00 (0.85) 0.10 (1.76) 0.03 (2.64) )0.01 ()0.18) )0.008 ()1.84) )5.50 ()1.93) I/Y * a Numbers in parentheses are t values. Estimation is with White’s heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Significant at the 0.10 level. ** Significant at the 0.05 level. *** Significant at the 0.01 level. R POP N 2 WBLDC IRLDC ETHNIC PPIDEV60 GOVCY TRDY SEC60 POPG Equation C GDPN60 Dependent variable 1.36 (0.40) 0.59 POP > 20 31 6 27.76 )0.0006 ()1.10) )8.03 ()3.52) 0.12 (1.50) 0.17 (4.39) )0.52 ()1.68) )0.03 ()1.31) 0.09 (0.01) I/Y )1.23 ()1.81) 0.27 POP < 20 59 7 4.34 )0.0001 ()1.13) )0.67 ()1.21) 0.03 (1.28) 0.003 (0.50) )0.11 ()2.72) 0.006 (1.71) )1.28 ()0.87) GDPNG )2.85 ()1.66) 0.44 POP > 20 31 8 5.67 )0.0004 ()0.97) )1.25 ()0.97) 0.03 (0.43) 0.01 (0.79) )0.08 ()0.61) )0.04 ()1.57) 1.33 (0.53) GDPNG Table 3. OLS robustness test corruption regression equations for small and large developing countries with IRIS (IRLDC), 1984–96 and World Bank (WBLDC) corruption variables, 1994–96a 1008 WORLD DEVELOPMENT * a 0.66 58 1 18.42 0.0001 (0.35) )0.04 ()0.04) 0.09 (1.36) 0.08 (7.73) )0.24 ()1.92) )0.04 ()2.09) )3.91 ()1.41) )0.65 ()1.23) 0.66 (1.24) I/Y 0.69 47 )1.18 ()2.40) 0.88 (1.17) 2 22.47 )0.0001 ()0.26) )0.35 ()0.28) 0.03 (0.48) 0.05 (3.09) )0.07 ()0.48) )0.01 ()2.37) )5.22 ()1.59) I/Y 0.68 79 )2.08 (2.90) 2.38 (1.52) 3 16.57 )0.0001 ()0.34) 0.40 (0.41) 0.12 (2.25) 0.05 (3.38) )0.15 (1.07) )0.01 ()2.35) )3.71 ()1.58) I/Y )4.32 ()2.95) 1.47 (0.19) 0.49 90 4 17.97 )0.0001 ()0.44) )1.42 ()1.04) 0.11 (1.85) 0.03 (2.06) )0.09 ()1.13) )0.01 (2.03) )4.82 ()1.84) I/Y 0.28 58 5 0.90 )0.0001 ()0.91) )0.02 ()0.04) 0.03 (1.98) 0.02 (3.56) )0.08 ()1.56) 0.009 (0.93) )1.01 (0.27) )0.22 ()0.81) 0.63 (2.59) GDPNG Numbers in parentheses are t values. Estimation is with White’s heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Significant at the 0.10 level. ** Significant at the 0.05 level. *** Significant at the 0.01 level. R N 2 WBLEANIC WBOLDC IRLEANIC IROLDC TILEANIC TIOLDC BILEANIC BIOLDC ETHNIC PPIDEV60 GOVCY TRDY SEC60 POPG Equation C GDPN60 Dependent variable 0.47 47 )0.12 ()0.51) 0.52 (2.12) 6 5.13 )0.0001 ()1.20) )0.28 ()0.50) )0.004 ()0.21) 0.01 (2.23) )0.14 ()1.65) 0.002 (0.75) )2.83 ()1.72) GDPNG 0.37 79 )0.21 ()0.69) 0.76 (2.39) 7 4.76 )0.0002 (2.19) )0.76 ()2.16) 0.01 (0.81) 0.01 (3.77) )0.08 ()1.40) )0.0002 ()0.07) )1.33 ()1.28) GDPNG Table 4. OLS robustness test regression equations on other developing country and east asian NIC corruption variables a )2.31 ()2.83) 5.41 (4.19) 0.31 90 8 6.24 )0.0003 ()2.48) )0.98 ()2.28) 0.03 (1.51) )0.003 ()0.58) )0.10 ()2.31) 0.0001 (0.02) )0.98 ()0.84) GDPNG COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION 1009 1010 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Bank’s ‘‘aggregated’’ measure of corruption. They also demonstrate that this ‘‘aggregated’’ measure, which is created by aggregating data on all available measures of corruption, is a more accurate (precise) indicator of corruption than any single measure of corruption. Because of this, the regression results using this variable should be more robust (standard errors should be smaller and t values higher) than for each of the other corruption variables. Examination of Tables 2–4 shows this to be the case and this can be taken as one more sign that our findings, though at odds with the Bank’s view that corruption always slows growth and/or reduces investment, are particularly robust. 4. CONCLUSIONS Taken together, these empirical results provide substantial statistical support for our two central hypotheses. To begin with, they suggest that corruption is likely to be much more damaging to investment and growth in small as opposed to large developing countries. They also demonstrate that corruption tends to slow growth and/or investment in most developing countries but increase growth in the large East Asian newly industrialized economies. What are the implications of these results for policy-makers? Several deserve mention. Although we found some evidence to support the conclusions reached in other crosscountry regression studies of the impact of corruption on growth and investment, our findings are more ambiguous and nuanced. By itself, this should caution those committed to reducing o eradicating corruption as it suggests that efforts to reduce corruption may not always yield the expected economic outcomes. Demonstration that corruption is more damaging to investment and growth in small developing countries than in large ones is important because it tentatively suggests that the international institutions, regional development banks and bilateral aid donors might have more to gain by focusing their anti-corruption programs on small developing countries. 30 It also suggests why it may be so hard to reform corrupt governance structures in large developing countries. Demonstration that corruption tends to be growth-enhancing in the large East Asian newly industrializing countries where governments with long time horizons have centralized cor- ruption networks with their big business partners is equally important. On the one hand, it provides solid empirical support to a regional and country case literature that explains the East Asian paradox––the combination of high corruption and high growth seen in Figure 1–– in terms of stable and mutually beneficial exchanges of promotional privileges for bribes and kickbacks. On the other hand, it suggests that there is more than one way to provide investors in market economies with the protection of property rights they need to get them to innovate and invest than is suggested by the current discussion of governance and corruption. 31 This should undermine at least some of the hubris evident in assumptions about the universality of a neoliberal governance paradigm. As our results also show, however, governments in the rest of the developing world have not been very successful at using corruption networks to enhance investment and growth. If we are right, this may well be because all too often governments elsewhere in the developing world have failed either to exercise monopoly control over corruption networks or to behave as stationary bandits committed to development. There are several other reasons why our results should not leave one too sanguine about corruption in general or East Asia’s corruption cum growth regimes. To begin with, the corruption cum growth regimes in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, appear to have supported primitive accumulation and/or technological learning in simple labor-intensive industries, rather than technological learning in skill-intensive industries as in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. 32 Because governments in these economies are weaker and less autonomous from the organized business groups they helped to create, it is not clear that Southeast Asia’s softer developmental states can use their corrupt ties to business to generate the high-speed technological learning in skills intensive industries visible in Northeast Asia. If they cannot, their corruption cum growth regimes may prove, in the long run, to be more of an inhibitor to rather than an incubator for further growth. Second, there is some evidence that the sustained corruption between political elites and big business in East Asia undermined the political legitimacy of the region’s developmental states. 33 Since no government can rule for long without substantial political legitimacy, this loss of legitimacy is particularly worrisome. Equally COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION worrisome is the carrying over of a legacy of corruption into the region’s nascent democracies following democratic transitions. This has the potential to substantially alter the industrial organization of corruption by replacing monopoly control of corruption networks extant in the ancien regimes with more decen- 1011 tralized corruption networks fraught with the problems associated with corruption networks dominated by multiple independent monopolists. Such a change could very well presage a shift from growth and investment enhancing corruption to growth and investment retarding corruption. 34 NOTES 1. There is a large companion literature on other aspects of corruption. Some of it focuses on the microeconomics of corruption (Clarke & Xu, 2001; Kaufmann & Wei, 1999; Leff, 1964; Lui, 1985) and some of it focuses on the determinants of corruption (Ades & Di Tella, 1999; Lederman, Loayza, & Soares, 2001; Treisman, 2000). 2. The World Bank’s anti-corruption activities can be accessed at http://www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/ igrs.htm and http://www.worldbank.org/wbi.governance. The Asian Development Bank’s anti-corruption activities can be accessed at http://www1.oecd.org/daf/Asiacom/ and USAID’s anti-corruption activities can be found at http://www.usaid.gov/democracy/anticorruption/index.html. 3. The Appendix lists each corruption variable and its source. 4. Both Mauro (1995) and Knack and Keefer (1995) focus on broad measures of institutional quality rather than corruption per se. 5. Small countries are defined as those with populations less than 20 million while large countries are those with more than 20 million people. For example, for the Business International corruption variable used by Mauro (1995), the simple regression equation for small countries is GDPNG ¼ 1.688 ) 0.569 BIC where GDPNG is the average rate of growth of real GDP per capita and BIC is the Business International corruption index. In this equation BIC is statistically (t ¼ 3:19) significant at the 0.01 level with the expected sign ()) and R2 ¼ 0:13. The simple regression equation for large countries is GDPNG ¼ 1.388 ) 0.0327 BIC where BIC is statistically insignificant (t ¼ 0:15) and R2 is 0.001. 6. Some evidence of this can be found in Ades and Di Tella (1999, p. 992) who find that corruption is higher in countries where domestic firms are protected from foreign competition and in countries with more active industrial policies (Ades & Di Tella, 1997). 7. Haggard and Low (2002, p. 301) provide some evidence of this for Singapore. 8. But, as one anonymous reviewer pointed out, since we do not have corruption data on this group of small economies stretching back to the 1960s when they were in earlier stages of their development, we do not know whether corruption was lower then or whether it fell as they became more developed. While we agree with the thrust of this comment, there is some evidence that the governments of Singapore (Lee, 2000, pp. 157–171) and Botswana (Holm, 2000) addressed corruption rather early in their development. 9. During 1984–96, real GDP per capita growth averaged 4.87% per year and the score on the IRIS corruption indicator averaged a low 1.86 in these small countries while the average growth rate was only 2.97% per year and the corruption score averaged 2.93 for these large countries. Moreover, China experienced high growth (5.83% per year) and relatively high corruption (2.82), while Mexico experienced low growth (0.36% per year) and relatively high corruption (3.05). Growth data are from Penn World Tables (PWT6.0) and corruption data are from Political Risk Service (2002). 10. The grouping of countries in Figure 1 is based on the regional and country-specific corruption literature discussed in Section 2. Malaysia is grouped with Singapore and Hong Kong (SINGHKMAL) because it is a relatively small country with relatively low corruption scores (Lim & Stern, 2002, p. 5). The Philippines is combined with South Asia (SASIAP) because its client dominated patron–client networks (Hutchcroft, 1994Hutchcroft, 2000, p. 218) are similar to those in South Asia (Khan, 1996, pp. 691–695). Countries in the large East Asian newly industrializing economies (LEANICS) category include China, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand and Japan. China (Wedeman, 2002b), Indonesia (Lim & Stern, 2002; Rock, 2002), Korea (Johnson, 1987; Kang, 2002), Thailand (Lim & Stern, 2002; Rock, 2000), and Japan (Babb, 2002; Johnson, 1987, 1999) are included in this group because of strong similarities in 1012 WORLD DEVELOPMENT their political economies of corruption. Other country groupings include the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). 11. See Section 2. 12. Hyper-presidentialism is defined as a system of government with strong presidents facing limited institutional and popular checks and balances on their presidential actions (Whitehead, 2000). 13. As Hope (2000, p. 20) says, neo-patrimonialism became so pervasive in Africa that even ordinary citizens learned to adapt to it by shifting their loyalties to the ruling regime of the day. 14. For discussion of plunder in one African country, Zaire see Evans (1995, pp. 45–47). 15. Where neo-patrimonial politics was less pervasive and governments more committed to development and to limiting corruption, as in Botswana, corruption was lower and growth and investment were higher (Coolidge & Rose-Ackerman, 2000, pp. 77–78). 16. While there is some evidence of recent change in Morocco (Economist, 1998, pp. 58–60), there is also substantial evidence of continuing and serious problems with corruption (Transparency International, 2003, pp. 204–207). 17. In Singapore, the government of Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew was committed to turning Singapore into a first world oasis in Southeast Asia (Lee, 2000, pp. 56–57). Part of that commitment included building an exceptionally clean (anti-corrupt) government (Lee, 2000, pp. 157–171). The British colonial government of Hong Kong committed to more or less laissez faire economic policies has a similarly strong history of anticorruption (Lee, 1995). While Malaysia has experienced more corruption associated with money politics than either Singapore or Hong Kong, virtually all of this revolves around UMNO, state-owned enterprises and bumiputera entrepreneurs (Gomez, 2002, pp. 82–114; Khan, 1996, p. 86). The foreign investors who have driven much of Malaysia’s industrial development miracle have been notably exempt from these kinds of pressures (Khan, 2000, p. 89). 18. In some instances, as in South Korea and Japan, patrons in government have used performance monitoring to hold their new clients in civil society accountable for their performance. When this happens and clients use the rents to grow their own firms and the economy, government patrons can take credit for growing the economy while appropriating a share of their clients’ profits in the form of bribes and kickbacks (Johnson, 1987; Kang, 2002; Rock, 2002). Those bribes and kickbacks can be used to solidify support for the regime and win election contests. As Kang (2002, p. 15) argues this outcome is most likely when a small number of relatively strong and autonomous patrons in government shower promotional privileges (new property rights) on a small number of new business clients (indigenous capitalists and entrepreneurs). As he says (Kang, 2002, p. 7), this combination tends to foster a mutually beneficial hostage relationship where patrons offer favored businesses protected promotional privileges in exchange for bribes and kickbacks. Khan (2000, 1996, 2002), Rock (1995, 1999, 2000, 2002) and WooCummings (1999, p. 16) contend that this mutually beneficial exchange of promotional privileges for bribes is characteristic of investment and growth enhancing corruption in South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan. Wedeman (2002b, pp. 172–178) argues that such a mutually beneficial exchange of privileges and protection for bribes and kickbacks characterizes the relationship between government and the private sector, including the foreign private sector, in China. 19. When this happens, clients use their access to the state to protect and enhance unproductive rent-seeking activities reducing investment and growth. This outcome appears to be typical of the domestic politics of corruption in most of South Asia and the Philippines. In South Asia where government patrons lack the power to allocate and protect (enforce) new property rights, factional groups in civil society have organized political competition for unproductive re-distributive rents (Khan, 2000, p. 92). As Khan (2000, p. 92) says the deepening of democracy has strengthened the ability of factional groups to capture re-distributive rents. As he (Khan, 2000, p. 93) also says, this process allows capitalists and landlords to seek and protect their unproductive re-distributive rents simply by expending resources on lobbying politicians and bribing bureaucrats. As an anonymous reviewer pointed out, something very similar has been at work in the Philippines, particularly in the later years of the Macros’ government and in the governments following Marcos, where a very weak state has been and is, ‘‘. . .choked with the anarchy of (business-oriented) rent-seekers’’ (Hutchcroft, 1994, p. 217) who have been capturing the state and chewing off rents from a shrinking pie. 20. Except for the East Asian NICs, the classification of countries and regions into one of the four cells in Table 1 is meant to be illustrative rather than definitive. COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF CORRUPTION 21. Robustness tests are likely to be particularly important since some are likely to be skeptical of results suggesting that the impacts of corruption on investment and growth depend on country size and on differences across countries in domestic political economies of corruption. 22. Mauro assumes this when he regresses the average investment to GDP ratio over 1960–85 and the average rate of growth of real GDP per capita during 1960–85 on bureaucratic inefficiency and corruption indices averaged over 1980–83. 23. For example, Bangladesh’s corruption ‘‘score’’ on the IRIS corruption variable fell by 33% during 1989–93, Brazil’s increased by 50% during 1991–96, and China’s increased by 50% during 1994–96 (Political Risk Service, 2002). 24. Countries in the ‘‘large East Asian NIC’’ category include China, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand and Japan. Given the importance of a Japanese model of development to these countries (Johnson, 1987; Rock, 1995, 1999) and similarities in domestic political economies of corruption (Kang, 2002; Rock, 2000, 2002; Wedeman, 2002b) with Japan (Babb, 2002; Johnson, 1987), Japan was included in this group. Although space constraints make it impossible to report regression results with and without Japan as a large East Asian NIC, it should be noted that regression findings are not sensitive to the inclusion/exclusion of Japan. 25. These variables are BILDC, BIOLDC and BILEANICS for the Business International corruption variable; TILDC, TIOLDC and TILEANIC for the Transparency International corruption variable; IRLDC, IROLDC and IRLEANIC for the IRIS corruption variable and WBLDC, WBOLDC, and WBLEANIC for the World Bank corruption variable. 26. Following Li et al. (2000), Easterly and Levine (1997), Mauro (1995), Knack and Keefer (1995) and Barro (1991), the investment rate is not controlled for in growth equations because it is likely to be endogenously determined by the other variables in the growth equation. 27. The Business International (BI) corruption regressions are for a sample of 58 developed and developing countries in 1980–83. The Transparency International corruption regressions are for a sample of 47 developed and developing countries in 1988–92. The IRIS corruption regressions are for a sample of 79 developing and developed countries in 1984–86. The World Bank 1013 corruption regressions are for a sample of 90 developed and developing countries in 1994–96. Because of data availability and comparability across sample regression problems, none of our samples include countries from the Eastern bloc. Political instability as measured by the average number of revolutions and coups is often included in growth accounting regressions. In most instances in our regressions, a revolutions and coups variable (REVC) was either dominated by one or two data points, highly correlated with other variables, or simply statistically insignificant. Because of this, we do not report results with it, although they are available on request. Mauro (1995) uses the ethno-linguistic fractionalization variable (ETHNIC) as an instrument in his two-stage least squares regression equations, but since Easterly and Levine (1997) show it to be a determinate of crosscountry differences in growth, we use it as another regressor, rather than as an instrument. 28. Because Hausman (1978) tests for endogeniety for our truncated corruption variables rejected the hypothesis that these corruption variables were endogenous, estimation of all regression equations is by ordinary least squares. 29. Because of space constraints, we only report the robustness test equations. Results for other equations are similar and are available on request. 30. We say tentative because, as one anonymous reviewer pointed out, we really do not have sufficient data to demonstrate that some of the small countries with high growth and low corruption started their development with low corruption. Case data from Singapore (Lee, 2000, pp. 157–172) and Botswana (Holm, 2000) suggest that this may be the case in these two economies, but it may well be that corruption fell in one or more of the other small high-growth countries as they developed. 31. Much of the current focus in anti-corruption programs emphasizes what might best be called AngloAmerican governance structures and Anglo-America rule of law. But as Rodrik (2002, pp. 4–5) argues, the historical evidence suggests that there is no unique mapping of the institutional requirements of market economies into such specific institutional forms. Or as Campos (2002, p. 3) argues, ‘‘. . .the proponents of ‘good governance’ are confronted with the exact opposite of their revered gospel: in East Asia, weak legal institutions have existed side by side with high levels of investment (not to mention) rapid rates of growth. In different ways a number of authors argue that institutions that promote the credible enforcement of contracts have indeed existed in many of these East Asian countries. (These) 1014 WORLD DEVELOPMENT . . .authors argue that rents and corruption have been essential to the credible enforcement of contracts. . .’’ 33. For discussion of this in Indonesia see Schwarz (1999, pp. 159–161). 32. Aswicahyono, Hill, and Basri (2000) and Dehanini (2000) discuss this problem in Indonesia. Jomo and Felker (1999) and Jomo, Felker, and Rasiah (1999) cover this problem in Malaysia. Felker (2001) and Brimble (1993) discuss this problem in Thailand. 34. 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BASE VARIABLES AND SOURCES Variable name GDPNG GDPN60 I/Y POPG PPIDEV60 SEC60 TRDY GOVCY BI TI WB IRIS ETHNIC Definition and source Average real GDP per capita growth rate in PPP$ 1996 from Penn World Tables (PWT6.0) Real GDP per capita in 1960 PPP$ 1996 from PWT6.0 Average ratio of gross domestic investment to GDP from PWT6.0 Average rate of population growth from PWT6.0 Deviation of purchasing power parity value of the investment deflator from its sample mean in 1960 from PWT6.0 Secondary school enrollment ratio for 1960 from World Bank (2000) Average share of trade in GDP from World Bank (2000) Average share of government consumption expenditures in GDP from World Bank (2000) Business International corruption index for 1980–83 from Mauro (1995, pp. 708–710) Transparency International corruption index for 1988–92 from Internet Center for Corruption Research at http://www.gwdg.de/~uwvw/histor. htm World Bank corruption index for 1997–98 from Kaufmann et al. (1999) IRIS/Political Risk Service (PRS) corruption index for 1984–96 from Political Risk Service (2002) Ethno-linguistic fractionalization, a measure of ethnic diversity from La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (1999, Appendix B)