Defense Budget Composition and Internal Pressures
Cindy Williams
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
1
Overview of Talk
• Composition of the Department of Defense
budget – By appropriation title – By major force program – By military department • Internal pressures on future budgets for national
defense
– Rising costs of personnel and of operation and
maintenance (O&M)
– Rising costs of equipment – Over-programming in the current defense plan MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
2
National Defense Budget
Budget Authority in Billions of Current Dollars
Budget Function
FY 10 FY 11
request
051 Department of Defense
non-war
war
534
163
553
159
053 DOE Atomic Energy
18
19
054 Other Departments’
Defense-Related
050 Total National Defense
7
8
722
739
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
3
DOD FY 2011 Budget Request by Appropriation Title (Excludes FY 2011 War Costs)
Current Dollars in Billions
TOA
BA
Outlays
Military Personnel
139
144
144
Operation & Maintenance
200
201
227
Procurement
113
113
131
RDT&E
76
76
78
Military Construction
17
17
23
Family Housing
2
2
3
Revolving & Mgt Funds
2
2
3
-2
-2
553
602
Trust & Other
Total
549
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
4
DoD Base Budgets FY 2010 and FY 2011
250
Current Dollars (Billions)
200
150
FY 2010
FY 2011
100
50
0
Mil Pers
O&M
Procurement
RDT&E
Mil Con
Other
Appropriation Title
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
5
Figure 2. DoD Total Budgets FY 2010 and FY 2011
350
Current Dollars (Billions)
300
250
200
FY 2010
FY 2011
150
100
50
0
Military Personnel
O&M
Procurement
RDT&E
Military
Construction
Housing & Other
Appropriation Title
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
6
U.S. Outlays for National Defense
(Billions of Constant FY 2011 Dollars)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 Fiscal Year
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
7
DoD Budget Authority by Appropriation
FY 2010, Excludes Wars
Other
1%
Mil Con
4%
RDT&E
15%
Procurement
20%
Mil Pers
25%
O&M
35%
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
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DOD BA by Title
100%
80%
Mil Con/ Housing
RDT&E
Procurement
O&M
Mil Pers
60%
40%
20%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
2000
2010
9
DOD budget by program
FY 2011 TOA
Billions of Dollars
Strategic Forces
11
General Purpose Forces
214
C3, Intelligence, and Space
84
Mobility Forces
13
Guard and Reserve Forces
41
Research and Development
48
Central Supply and Management
24
Training, Medical and Other
84
Administration & Associated
17
Support of Other Nations
2
Special Operations Forces
10
Total
549
C3: Command, Control, and Communications
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
10
DoD Budget Authority by Service
FY 2010 Budget Request, Excludes Wars
Defense-wide
18%
Army
26%
AF
27%
Navy
29%
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
11
Component Shares of DoD Base Budget
100%
80%
60%
Defense-w ide
Air Force
Navy
Army
40%
20%
0%
FY 1980
FY 2000
FY 2010
MIT Security Studies Program
September 2010
FY 2011
12
Defense Department Budget Authority
by Department
100%
Def-Wide
Def-Wide
80%
Air
AirForce
Force
60%
Navy
Navy
40%
20%
0%
1965
Army
Army
1975
1985
1995
2005 13
Military department shares of the budget
that goes to the services
(percent)
Army
Cold war
average share
(1965 to 1989)
30
Non-war
2010 share
32
Navy
35
35
Air Force
35
33
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
14
Defense faces cost pressure
from the inside
• Future costs of wars
• Military & civilian pay raises above inflation
• Rising costs of health care for military and
civilian employees
• Rising costs of weapon systems
• Rising operating & maintenance costs
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
15
16
Defense faces cost pressure from the inside (continued)
• CBO says DOD would need $40 billion
more on average between now and 2028,
to maintain the planned force structure
and purchase planned systems, but…
• In real terms, Obama non-war budget plan
for FY 2011-2015 adds just 2 percent in
FY 2011 over FY 2010 and about 1
percent annually after that.
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
17
President’s Plan for DOD
Discretionary Budget Authority, Current $ Billions
Fiscal Year
Non-war
War
Total
2009
513
146
667
2010
531
163
693
2011
549
159
708
2012
566
50
616
2013
582
50
632
2014
598
50
648
2015
616
50
666
Source: President’s budget of February 2010
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
18
What do the fiscal pressures portend for the US military?
• Obama plan for FY 2011
– Cancellation of systems with weak performance or big cost and
schedule overruns – Stretch-outs of equipment modernization programs • Secretary Gates’s recent initiatives
– Close Joint Forces Command
– Reduce the number of Generals and Admirals
– Other efficiency cuts
• L
ater
– Belt-tightening concurrent with drawdown of forces in Afghanistan?
– Likely reductions in size of force
– Cancellation or stretch-outs of more systems in development
– Changes in allocation of budgets among the services?
MIT Security Studies Program September 2010
19
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu
17.953 U.S. Budgets for National Security
Fall 2010
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