Mexico
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
`
Mexico
Nuevo Laredo
Reynosa
Aguascalientes
`
Merida
Figure by MIT OCW.
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
“High corruption” vs. “low corruption”
Lots
Argentina
(Menem)
“High
corruption”
Chile
(Pinochet)
Chile
(now)
Costa
Rica
Mexico
(then)
Mexico
(now)
Argentina
(now)
Little
Little
Lots
“Low corruption”
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Mexico’s Political Evolution
Since the Revolution
10
2000 election
Polity IV
score
1997 election
5
0
1994 election
1988 election,
BC state
Consolidation
of one-party rule
-5
-10
1920
López-Portillo
reforms
1940
1960
1980
2000
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
PRI’s decline was in part
the continuation of a long-term trend
100%
80%
60%
PAN
abstains
PRI share
of vote
Salinas
midterm
Rural
population
40%
20%
1961
Illiteracy
1970
1979
1988
2000
1. Secular decline of PRI, associated with modernization
2. Acceleration of trend after economic collapse in 1982
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
PRI Vote for Governor, 1973-2000
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
Source: Alfonso Hernàndez Valdez (2005)
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Year and PRI vote
Each point is a state-election year
100
80
60
40
20
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
Things start to look much worse in the 1980s
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Literacy and PRI vote
Each point is state-election year
100%
Literacy Rate
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percentage of PRI Vote
Figure by MIT OCW.
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Urbanization and PRI Vote
Each point is a state-election year
100%
Urbanization
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percentage of PRI Vote
Figure by MIT OCW.
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Mexico’s Transition, Compared
10
Democracy
(Combined
Polity IV 5
score)
Venezuela
Mexico
Brazil
0
-5
Chile
-10
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
2005
Politically, Mexico is Where It “Ought To” Be
12
Mexico
Actual level
of democracy
(Combined 8
Freedom
House
score)
4
0
5
10
Predicted level of democracy
(Based on level of development, literacy, region, size, etc.)
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
15
Parties are the central organizing institution
Democracy
• Founded in 1990s
• Left of PRI, plus
leftist opposition
• Strong in D.F. and
points south
PRD
PAN
PT
Political
reform
PVEM
PRI
Old regime
Left
Ideology
• 1930s
• Urban middle classes,
north, Bajio, Yuc.
• Christian Democracy
• Socially retrograde
• Balanced budget
• Human K
• Open energy sector
• Favorite 2nd choice
• Party of the state”
• Founded after
revolution (1929)
• Strong in rural areas,
unions, big K
• Ideologically eclectic
• Associated with
Right autocracy, economic
crisis, and corruption
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Main cleavage is region (1)
PAN / Fox
PRI / Labastida
`
PRD / Cardenas
Results for President in 2000, by state
Figure by MIT OCW.
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Main cleavage is region (2)
Key
`
States won by Felipe Calderon
` Manuel Lopez
`
States won by Andres
Obrador
Source: http://www.electionresources.org/mx/maps/president.php?election=2006
Figure by MIT OCW.
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Mexico’s 2006 presidential election: an overview
Two main trends
1. Decline in AMLO relative to Felipe
2. Decline in Madrazo, relative to both
Main reasons for these trends
1. For PRI, a Greek tragedy
2. For AMLO, mainly a Christian tragedy (AMLO’s to lose)
•
Fox factor and incumbent performance
•
Success of negative campaign against AMLO
•
Other factors far less important
3. Monday morning quarterbacking?
Conclusions for Mexican voting behavior
1. Region over class
2. Valence over positional issues (exception: electricity sector)
•
Candidate traits and issue-ownership
•
Incumbent performance
•
A referendum on AMLO
3. Downsian model largely useless
Implications for Mexican democracy
1. Worst possible outcome
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
Presidential race focuses on candidates
Party
Roberto Madrazo
PRI, with PVEM
Felipe Calderón
PAN
AMLO
PRD, with PT, Conv.
Relationship
with party
Traditionalist
within PRI
Heart-and-soul,
lukewarm on Fox
PRI defector,
PRD savior
Background
Governor of
Tabasco
Party leader,
Sec. of Energy
Governor of D.F.,
public servant
Platform
Zzzzz…
See www.ibrd.org
50 ways to spend $
Implications
for governance
Concern in some
quarters
Democratic
deepening
Deepening or
polarization?
Majority in
Congress?
Very unlikely
Very unlikely
Even less likely
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].
AMLO was ahead most of the race
50%
Andres Manuel López Obrador / PRD
40%
Roberto Madrazo / PRI
30%
Felipe Calderón / PAN
20%
10%
0%
May
2003
November
2003
June
2004
December
2004
July
2005
Use of the materials should be cited as follows: Chappell Lawson, MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu/index.html) course materials for
17.55J/21A.430J/21F.084J (Introduction to Latin American Studies, Fall 2006), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, downloaded on [Insert Date].