Prospects for assimilating microwave sounder radiances over snow covered surfaces Stephen J. English and Patricia de Rosnay ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK. AMSU Ch. 5 O–B and 50 GHz emissivity atlas at ECMWF 80°N 80°N 60°N 60°N 40°N 40°N 20°N 20°N 0°N 0°N 20°S 20°S 40°S 40°S 60°S 60°S 80°S 80°S 80°E 0.72 0.75 0.78 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.9 Land and sea ice 0.7-1.0 O-B K 1/2/13 120°E 160°E 160°W 120°W 80°W 0.93 0.96 0.99 0.7 60°N 60°N 40°N 40°N 20°N 20°N 0°N 0°N 20°S 20°S 40°S 40°S 60°S 60°S 80°S 80°S -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.1 40°E 0.1 80°E 0.6 1.2 120°E 160°E 1.8 2.4 80°E 120°E 160°E 0.93 0.96 0.99 40°N 30°N 20°W 0°E 20°E 60°E 30°N 20°W Emissivity 1/2/13 40°N 3 -3 40°W 0°E -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.1 40°E 0.1 80°E 0.6 1.2 120°E 160°E 1.8 2.4 3 30°N 20°W 0°E 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 60°E 1 10 0.72 0.75 20°E 0.78 0.81 0.84 40°E 0.87 0.9 0.93 0.6 0.4 60°E 0.96 0 20 40 Snow density % 0.99 60-70N 48-58N 70-80N 70-80S 18-29N 5 0.85 0.8 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.75 0.7 0.7 200 0°N 0.10 20°S 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 0 Emissivity 0.06 60°S 4 80°S 40°W 0°E 40°E 80°E 120°E 0.9 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.75 600 0 0.75 0.8 0.7 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 00z 12z 0.94 0.95 0.8 0.94 0.93 0 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 0.06 Antarctica shows a small rise in emissivities in the SH summer period. 12z – 00z 0 –0.01 0.92 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 0.90 0 –0.01 Greenland shows the well documented ice-cap melt event around day 200 in 2012. It is interesting to note that emissivities fell and then took almost a year to return to their pre-melt values. Is it well understood why? 12z – 00z 0 –0.04 –0.06 –0.05 –0.08 0 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 Snow covered in East Europe (00z) for 2012–2013 1 50 GHz emissivity 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 24 GHz emissivity 1 0.95 0.95 50 GHz emissivity 1 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 24 GHz emissivity 1 1 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.8 0 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 –0.05 600 The emissivity falls steadily over several months, consistent with an increase in grain size for a dry low density snow pack. These is also an increase in spatial variability, denoted by the error bars which represent standard deviation of emissivity in the target area. This is almost certainly due to a combination of vegetation cover and orography. At snow melt the emissivities initially rise just above the snow-free value, prior to a quick return to a snow-free Spectral emissivity variations between 24 and 89 GHz are plotted to the left for East Europe. These show that snow cover introduces large spectral gradients, which contain additional information about the snow. In the absence of snow the correlation in emissivity across the 24–89 GHz range is very high meaning that there is only one degree of freedom in the emissivity, and therefore little information about the surface. It is encouraging to think that if we can fully understand the emissivities we may be able to improve assimilation in these areas using physical constraints, and also improve snow analyses. 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 There is no reason to expect an annual cycle in emissivity for the Sahara. At 00z there is almost no variation, but at 12z there is a large variation. This is almost certainly an impact of model Tskin errors. Can we trust Tskin in snow regions anymore? 0 200 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 600 and almost invariant value. For Antarctica there is also an annual cycle with a brief midsummer rise in emissivity. During the polar night the 00z emissivities are higher, for reasons which are not understood. At present its not straightforward to understand which changes are real, and which are driven by biases in the system, such as poor skin temperature, cloud screening and errors in background atmospheric fields. microwave sounders. Poor estimation of surface emissivity and skin temperature are a likely explanation for the high This gives reason to believe biases in background skin temperatures may bias the emissivity estimation. 3. Snow surfaces show strong spectral de-correlation in the departures in these regions, despite the dynamic emissivity estimated emissivities. This means different channels give estimation technique used at ECMWF. independent information. 2. There are day minus night differences in emissivity that 4. Collaboration between the land surface model and data are difficult to explain and may be the result of several assimilation community and the ATOVS assimilation factors. This is also seen in snow-free areas e.g. the Sahara. community is strongly encouraged. References 0.85 0.9 0.95 31 GHz emissivity 1 Acknowledgements We acknowledge Fatima Karbou, Marie Dumont and Samuel Morin of Météo-France/CEN for useful discussions and to Ghislain Picard for making the DMRTML code freely available. Anabel Bowen is gratefully acknowledged for her help in editing this poster. email: stephen.english@ecmwf.int 200 Conclusions 0.85 0.9 0.95 24 GHz emissivity 0 12z – 00z 1. Snowy regions show very large background departures for 0.85 600 –0.04 Snow free in East Europe (00z) 0.9 1 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 –0.03 0.95 0.8 0.8 200 –0.02 –0.04 1 31 GHz emissivity 0 –0.02 Four case studies of 50 GHz emissivity variation 2012-13 in different snowy regions are shown above, and one for the Sahara for comparison with a snow-free region. The changes in analysed emissivity with season are clear. In addition there are day:night differences in analysed emissivity. The Greenland ice melt event in 2012 is also very prominent, around day 200. The Siberia and East European cases show the timing of the onset of snow cover. 89 GHz emissivity 600 0.02 Emissivity Emissivity –0.03 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 0.04 The 12z–00z annual cycle for Greenland and Antarctica is similar, despite being in opposite hemispheres? Same pattern, different reasons? –0.02 200 0.92 0.91 0.7 0 0.93 Emissivity 0.01 600 600 600 0.91 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 Further west the snow is marginal and the winter shorter. This is clearly seen in the analysed emissivities, though in mid-winter the values are not very different to Siberia. However the 12z–00z differences are less obvious than for Siberia, but do become large when emissivities are at their lowest values 0.02 0.96 0.9 Emissivity 0.8 200 50 GHz Emissivity Sahara 10W–25E 18-29N in 2012–13 12z 0.9 0 12z – 00z 50 GHz Emissivity Greenland 30–50W 70–80N in 2012–13 00z 600 0.04 –0.04 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 0.06 –0.04 200 200 0.08 –0.02 0 0 0.10 1/8/13 0.85 0.8 –0.02 Emissivity Emissivity 0.75 0.95 0 0.85 0.8 As grain size grows the emissivity falls. We also start to reject more data and emissivity spatial variability rises. 0.02 12z 0.85 600 0.04 50 GHz Emissivity Dome C Antarctica 80–160E 70-80S in 2012–13 00z 12z 0.95 0 160°E 12z = 12z ECMWF data assimilation window, that covers the period 09z-21z and 00z = 00z ECMWF data assimilation window, that covers the period 21z-09z. 400 Day No. from 1/1/12 Emissivity 80°W 200 On onset of melting emissivity rises rapidly and the emissivity variability reduces. 12z – 00z 0.08 40°S 00z 0.9 0 200 80 50 GHz Emissivity East Europe 25–50E 48–58N in 2012–13 12z 0.95 0.9 40°N 20°N 00z 0.95 2 0 60 (wet snow) has generally high emissivity. Snow pack models combined with physical emissivity models may help constrain emissivity and skin temperature analysis in some snow regions. The DMRTML results also show that snow can increase or decrease emissivity, a result consistent with the emissivity retrievals. 50 GHz Emissivity Siberia 90–150E 60–70N in 2012–13 90-150E 25-50E 30-50W 80-160E 10W-25W 1 60°N temperature, or another factor. In any case its clear we have a problem in the snow covered regions to use satellite sounder radiances. Model runs such as DMRTML (above right) show that low density (dry) snow has highly variable emissivity, depending on snow grain size and snow depth. By contrast high density snow Emissivity Siberia East Europe Central Greenland Antarctica Dome C Sahara 3 120°W 0.05 40°E Land and sea ice 0.7-1.0 80°N 160°W 20°E Both higher and lower emissivity values (compared to snow free conditions) are found in the area where the ECMWF snow analysis has more than 0.01m snow. Therefore snow cover can both increase or decrease emissivity, depending on the snow pack characteristics. 50°N 160°W 120°W 80°W 0°E 0.01 70°N In winter large background departures are seen at ECMWF for AMSU-A channel 5. In the summer these large departures are not seen. They are caused by problems with the quality of the emissivity and skin temperature analysis over snow. This may be use of specular assumption [see discussion in Harlow 2009], poor surface skin Emissivity 40°E 60°N Land and sea ice 0.7-1.0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 40°N 0.8 Emissivity 0°E 40°E 0.72 0.75 0.78 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.9 Land and sea ice 0.7-1.0 O-B K 1/8/13 80°N 40°W 0°E 0.7 80°N 160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 50°N Emissivity 40°E 50°N Emissivity 0°E 60°N 60°N Emissivity 40°W 1 70°N 70°N Emissivity 160°W 120°W 80°W -3 Emissivity 1/8/13 Emissivity 1/8/13 Dmrtml-1.6 (Picard et al GMD 2012): simulations Snow grain size and snow pack depth matter when snow density is low only. High density snow is almost “invisible” at 50 GHz Emisssivity 50 GHz Emissivity 1/2/13 snow surfaces using information from snow pack models and snow analysis, combined with radiative transfer models?; (b) can we use the information in the emissivities to improve snow analysis? Varying snow grain size and snow depth The ECMWF dynamic emissivity scheme produces instantaneous estimates and a Kalman filter analysis of emissivity as described by Karbou (2005) and Krzeminski (2008). This poster is thinking about two questions: (a) can we constrain better the emissivity analysis over Harlow C. 2009: Millimeter Microwave Emissivities and Effective Temperatures of Snow-Covered Surfaces: Evidence for Lambertian Surface Scattering. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sensing. 47. Karbou, F. ; Prigent, C. ; Eymard, L. ; Pardo, J.R. 2005: Microwave land emissivity calculations using AMSU measurements. . IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sensing. 43, 948-959. Krzeminski B. N. Bormann, F. Karbou, P. Bauer, 2007: Towards a better use of AMSU over land at ECMWF. Proc. ITSC-16. Picard G., L. Brucker, A. Roy, F. Dupont, M. Fily, A. Royer and C. Harlow, 2013: Simulation of the microwave emission of multi-layered snowpacks using the dense media radiative transfer theory: the DMRT-ML model, Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1061-1078.