Comparative Energy
Systems
Lecture 2
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eDMP: 14.43 / 15.031 / 21A.341/ 11.161
Satellite Observations of CO Concentrations:
Can You Explain Their Locations?
Video links of CO concentrations in simulation are no longer available.
Source: NASA MOPITT
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Gathered Wood is Important Historically
& in Some Developing Nations Today
Pct. of Total Energy from
"Primary Biomass": 2007
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Brasil
Cambodia
China
Ethiopia
Haiti
India
Kenya
Viet Nam
47.2
42.0
33.3
70.8
2.8
92.5
39.6
27.3
19.5
44.8
Source: United Nations
This “Non-Commercial” energy is generally ignored
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How Else Did Humans Acquire Energy
Before Fossil Fuels?
• Mainly animals, wind, water
• Note that these resources, like wood, vary
considerably from region to region – little wood
in deserts
• Comparing pre-industrial energy systems at
various times, big differences based on




available resources,
climate,
level of technology,
level of organization (rise/fall of empires), …
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The Global Energy System
Intercultural communication, emulation, rivalry
International interdependence, rivalry, collaboration
Global/regional
regimes/agreements:
WTO, Kyoto, Nafta,
GHG
“Copenhagen”
International
Financial
markets
Trans/multinational
companies
International
Energy
markets
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Global Primary (Commercial) Energy:
Shares of Coal, Gas Are Rising
World consumption
Million tonnes oil equivalent
13000
Coal
Renewables
Hydroelectricity
Nuclear energy
Natural gas
Oil
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
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World primary energy consumption grew by 2.5% in 2011, less than half the growth rate experienced in 2010 but close to the historical average. Growth decelerated for
all regions and for all fuels. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, accounting for 33.1% of global energy consumption, but this figure is the lowest share on record. Coal’s
market share of 30.3% was the highest since 1969.
Courtesy of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, BP p.l.c. Used with permission.
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0
The U.S. Has Large Shares of World
Energy Production & (Esp.) Consumption
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Lots of Variation in Primary (Commercial)
Energy per capita
Consumption per capita 2011
Tonnes oil equivalent
0-1.5
1.5-3.0
3.0-4.5
4.5-6.0
> 6.0
Courtesy of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, BP p.l.c. Used with permission.
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Energy use per capita per time
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Regional consumption pattern 2011
Percentage
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
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North America
S. & Cent. America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
0
The Asia Pacific region is the world’s largest energy consumer, accounting for 39.1% of global energy consumption and 68.6% of global coal consumption; the region also
leads in oil consumption and hydroelectric generation. Europe & Eurasia is the leading region for consumption of natural gas, nuclear power, and renewables. Coal is the
dominant fuel in the Asia Pacific region; natural gas is dominant in Europe & Eurasia, and oil is dominant in all other regions.
Courtesy of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, BP p.l.c. Used with permission.
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What Factors Determine Differences in
National Energy Systems Today?
• Available resources
• Level of income/development
• Economic activity mix (e.g., manufacturing)
• Climate
• Government policies (e.g., subsidies)
• Culture, habits, etc…
• HISTORY (e.g., house sizes, city structures)
• …?
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Climate: Degree days
Source: EIA
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Energy intensity
Source: EIA
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Energy/ GDP: A comparison
40,000
Mexico MX
Brazil BR
Germany GM
Russia RS
Bangladesh BG
India IN
Btu per US$ (2000)
35,000
30,000
United States US
France FR
United Kingdom UK
Kenya KE
China CH
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1980
Source: EIA
1985
1990
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1995
2000
2005
Gasoline Prices: Taxes & Subsidies
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Review 2009. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2009, p. 320.
Electricity Prices: Industry v. Households
Source: EIA
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But where do prices come from?
• World prices for some inputs
• Local resources, costs
• Costs of capital, labor
• Efficiency/productivity
• Taxes/subsidies
• Environmental, other policies
• …
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Electricity consumption per capita
Top Ten Countries by Electricity Consumption
Iceland
Norway
Qatar
Finland
Canada
Luxembourg
Kuwait
Sweden
United Arab Emirates
United States
World
0
5000
10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
kwh/capita
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare. Source: Infographic from "Ranking America."
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Energy flow diagram for the United States in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for France in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Norway in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Germany in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Japan in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Mexico in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for China in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for India in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Saudi Arabia in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Kenya in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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Energy flow diagram for Cambodia in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows.
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OECD Members: Generally Wealthy,
17.5% of 2009 World Population,
47.3% of 2009 World Energy Consumption
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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Growth Expected Mainly in Non-OECD
In 2009, if world had OECD (US) actual energy/capita
world energy would be 2.7 (4.3) times actual – feasible?
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 1.
Non-OECD Growth Mainly in Asia:
China + India
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 10.
The Recent, Future(?) Growth in Coal Use:
China and India
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 3.
Growth in CO2 Emissions Projected to
Come Mainly from non-OECD Nations
In 2008, OECD (US) accounted for 44.6% (19.3%) of total, so
If world CO2/capita were OECD (US) actual, world emissions
would have been 2.5 (4.3) times actual – not good!
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 139.
But Don’t non-OECD Nations Deserve a Chance to
Get Rich Like US??
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 7.
Some Final Thoughts
• National energy systems are incredibly diverse,
with many drivers of diversity – not just resources
• Growth in energy use, CO2 likely to come mainly
from developing nations, esp. China
• If the world got rich using OECD/US models,
huge increases in energy, CO2 emissions
• Finding and moving to another growth path will
be a great challenge by any standard
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MIT OpenCourseWare
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15.031J / 14.43J / 21A.341J / 11.161J Energy Decisions, Markets, and Policies
Spring 2012
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