Greenhouse gases
Human Health Risk
Ecological Risk
Socioeconomic Risk
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M - L*
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Global climate change is a gradual rise in average global temperatures caused by increasing amounts of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere. More than 80% are the result of the
combustion of fossil fuels, and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased nearly 30% since pre-industrial times. The buildup of heat trapping gases in the
atmosphere is linked to a gradual rise in sea level and an increase in intense storm activity.
What’s at risk?
What are the human health impacts in New
Jersey?
The impacts of global warming are relatively uncertain and long term in nature. There are five major
concerns about impacts of global warming on
human health:
(1) increase in heat stroke and heat-related deaths
due to hotter summers; (2) increase in respiratory
diseases due to increase in air pollution; (3)
increase in deaths from violent storm and flood
activity; (4) increase in diseases carried by insects
(e.g., malaria, and Lyme disease); and (5) illness
related to poor water or food (e.g., fisheries)
quality.
What are the ecological impacts in New
Jersey?
Ecological impacts could be severe and irreversible,
but they are very uncertain. Should sea levels rise to
hypothesized levels, there is a potential for substantial
damage to coastal ecosystems from saltwater intrusion and associated large impacts on biodiversity.
Climate change may also influence the cycling of
mercury in the environment, which would result in
increased concentrations of mercury in fish.
What are the socioeconomic impacts in New
Jersey?
Assessing the socioeconomic impacts associated with
global warming is highly speculative. Should sea level
rise as predicted, the economic costs associated with
loss of property and tourism in coastal areas would
likely be in the billions of dollars. Most people are
aware of the potential for climate change impacts
and this creates some degree of anxiety. However,
major impacts are unlikely to occur within the next
five years.
What’s being done?
A treaty on greenhouse gas emissions may result in a
slower warming trend, but most scientists agree that
reducing emissions will not be enough to stop the
increase in the greenhouse effect that will produce
warmer temperatures in the coming decades. Impacts
can be managed to some extent. Flood damage can
be limited by controlling development in flood zones.
New Jersey’s existing health care system will, to some
extent, be able to contain any major disease outbreaks.
The total state population will be exposed; however,
people near flood zones and coastal areas will be
more susceptible to deaths from violent storm and
flood activity. People in areas of the state that cur*Note: Despite the potential for significant long-term human health
rently experience high levels of ground ozone might
and ecological impacts, the time frame over which such
be increasingly exposed to respiratory diseases. The
impacts may occur is longer than the five-year time frame
encompassed by this comparative risk analysis. Over the
segments of the New Jersey population that might be
shorter time frame of this analysis, few impacts are anticipated.
particularly exposed are the elderly, infants and people
with cardiovascular or respiratory diseases.
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Final Report of the New Jersey State Comparative Risk Project
STRESSOR SUMMARIES
Should the hypothesized effects of climate change
materialize, all of New Jersey’s population would be
susceptible to health problems related to an increase
in heat waves and air pollution. The elderly, infants,
and people with cardiovascular or respiratory diseases
would be particularly vulnerable. Coastal wetlands
and the forested Pine Barrens ecosystems would be
most vulnerable to climate change effects. People
living in coastal areas would be at a greater risk from
the effects of violent storms and flooding. It is
impossible to predict the extent of secondary effects
related to increases in disease caused by poor water
quality or by the northern migration of diseasecarrying insects.