2009 Pasco County Manufacturing Firms Survey Economic Impact Analysis Introduction This economic impact analysis estimates the economic activity generated in Pasco county by companies that responded to Pasco County Economic Development’s Manufacturers’ survey. The survey covers a wide range of industrial activities in Pasco, including the manufacture of furniture, food products, electronic equipment and plastics. TBRPC modeled the economic impacts of the 61 surveyed firms, employing 1,783 people, on Pasco County’s economy. Impacts Methodology The 1,783 employees of the surveyed firms generate (directly, indirectly, and induced) an estimated $110 million in annual household earnings and contributed $286 Million to Pasco’s Gross County Product (GCP). Those jobs then create 1,609 indirect and induced jobs. Indirect jobs are created through industry demand, which together induce additional jobs through household spending, for a total job impact of 3,392 jobs. In this analysis, the “what if” question is what if manufacturing did not exist in Pasco county. By subtracting manufacturing firm employment out of a baseline forecast for 2009, both the direct and indirect impacts of manufacturing on the local economy can be measured. This analysis reports total impacts that include direct, indirect and induced effects of the firms in the survey. Direct effects are the impacts of the expenditures/sales of the final demand for the event being measured (e.g., a new job baking bagels in a plant). The indirect effects are the result of the new industry purchasing from other industries (e.g., buying cinnamon and raisins for the bagels). Induced effects are the impacts generated by the expenditures of the new household income generated by the wages paid by the direct and indirect beneficiary industries. Those 3,392 jobs contribute $286 Million dollars to the GCP of the total Gross County Product. Economic impacts, however, are not limited to industrial output. Because a significant share of annual household earnings are spent locally, the wages earned at these jobs circulate money through different sectors of the local economy. For example, the additional earnings by households translates into approximately $12.5 million in additional retail sales annually. Table 1 and Figure 1 illustrate the distribution of that $12.5 million in additional retail sales by category. The employment estimates of the manufacturing sector was analyzed using both the REMI Policy Insight® (a highly sophisticated econometric model) and IMPLAN Pro® (a basic input/output model) economic models. These models are the best available tools to estimate economic impacts. The analysis involves the use of historical data, input-output tables and general equilibrium models to access economic impacts. Annual Impact Summary Number of Surveyed Firms: 61 Direct Employment: 1,783 Indirect & Induced Employment: 1,609 Personal Income: $110 Million Contribution to GCP: $286 Million Pasco County GCP (2009): $7.1 Billion Note: This analysis is not comparable to previous year’s analyses due to differences in respondents and data updates to the model. All Figures are in 2009 US Dollars. Previous Impact Studies used 2000 US Dollars. -1- Table 1: Annual Retail Sales by Category Motor vehicle and parts dealers Furniture and home furnishings stores Electronics and appliance stores Building material and garden supply stores Food and beverage stores Health and personal care stores Gasoline stations Clothing and clothing accessories stores Sporting goods- hobby- book and music stores General merchandise stores Miscellaneous store retailers Nonstore retailers Total $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,134,276 333,225 467,333 1,219,938 2,133,232 1,045,502 591,205 630,885 200,534 2,772,175 389,595 587,646 12,505,546 Figure 1: Annual Retail Sales by Category Motor vehicle and parts Furniture and furnishings Electronics and appliances Building materials Food and beverage Health and personal care Gasoline stations Clothing and accessories Sporting goods, hobby, etc General merchandise Miscellaneous Direct and electronic sales Prepared in June 2010 by: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Economic Analysis Program 4000 Gateway Centre Boulevard, Suite 100 Pinellas Park, FL 33782 www.tbrpc.org/eap -2-