Team Structure in Climate
Change Research
Travis Franck
Robert Nicol
Jaemin Song
ESD.342 Franck, Nicol, Song, 2006
Page 1
Agenda
• Introduction
• Update from 2nd Presentation
• Results of Network Analysis
- Characteristics of entire network
- Characteristics of individual volume
• Lessons for international research
projects
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IPCC Report Preparation Process
IPCC approves outline
Government and organizations
Nominate experts
1990: IPCC First Assessment Report
1995: IPCC First Assessment Report
2001: IPCC First Assessment Report
Bureaux select authors
Authors prepare draft
Expert review
Images removed for copyright reasons.
Volumes of Climate Change 2001.
Authors prepare final draft
Government review
WG accepts/approves report and publish
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Motivation
• Explore team collaborations on a global research
effort to understand climate change
• Identify relevant influence metrics
• Use metrics to identify key players
• Extract key relationships from citation Network
• Test hypothesis of IPCC social network formation
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Analysis of the Entire IPCC Report
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Entire Network
•# of authors: 17901
•# of edges: 71341
•<k>: 3.98
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Cluster Coefficients
Result
Cluster Coeff.
(Pajek CC1)
0.022191
Biology
(Newman, 2001)
0.066
Physics
(Newman, 2001)
0.414
•Not highly clustered
•Lower clustering than other co-authorship studies
•Note: Most likely different equations, so might not be
directly comparable
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Power Law Check
Degree Distribution in Log-Log
1
Density
0.1
0.01
0.001
1
10
100
1000
<k>
Degree Distribution
Fit
•Possible reason: Restricted set of papers
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Top 20 Table
Centrality
Author
Betweeness
T.M.L.Wigley
0.02930
R.Leemans
0.01589
C.Rosenzweig
0.01510
J.F.B.Mitchell
0.01465
J.E.Penner
0.01402
I.C.Prentice
0.01373
P.D.Jones
0.01132
M.E.Schlesinger
0.01089
J.A.Patz
0.01081
M.Heimann
0.01068
F.S.Chapin
0.01035
A.HendersonSeller
0.00989
R.S.J.Tol
0.00882
M.Hulme
0.00855
S.H.Schneider
0.00787
K.P.Shine
0.00770
Y.Zhang
0.00769
G.Marland
0.00755
F.Giorgi
0.00749
W.H.Schlesinger
0.00706
S.Brown
0.00700
M.Weber
0.00691
D.Rind
0.00638
J.B.Smith
0.00626
PhD
U of Adelaide
Uppsala University
U of Massachusetts
Belfast
Harvard
Cambridge
U of Newcastle
UCLA
Case Western
U of Bern
Stanford
Vrije
U of Wales
Columbia
U of Washington
U of Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Cornell
Columbia
M.S. Public Policy
Year
Discipline
1967 Physics
Ecology
1991 Environmental Science
1973 Physics
1977 Mathematics
1977 Environmental Science
1977 Environmental Science
1976 Atmospheric Science
1987 Molecular Biology
1982 Biogeochemistry
1973 Biology
Atmospheric Science
1997 Economics
1985
1971 Physics
Meteorology
1996 Atmospheric Science
1972 Geology
1986 Physics
1976 Biology
Biogeochemisty
1976 GCM
1982 Economics
Affiliation 1
Affiliation 2
U of Waterloo
U of East Anglia
Wageningen U UK AEA
NASA
RIVM
Hadley Centre
LLNL
UCAR
U of Bristol
U of Michigan
U of East Anglia
U of Illinois U-C
Johns Hopkins IPCC
Max Planck Instit U of Wisconsin
U of Alaska
IPCC
Honored with Aus NAS
Energy EconomicANSTO
U of East Anglia Carnegie Mellon
Stanford
Tyndall Centre
U of Reading
MacArthur
IPCC
Indiana State U IPCC
NCAR
Oak Ridge Nationa
Duke
ENER (Italy)
Hadley Centre
Technical U Muni UK AEA
Earth Institute
Columbia
EPA
Stratus Consulting
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R.S.J.Tol Neighborhood
Photo removed for copyright reasons.
Photo of Dr. R.S.J. Tol.
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How MIT Ranks
Centrality
Author
Betweeness Rank
PhD
R.Prinn
0.00047097 875 MIT
H.D.Jacoby 0.00032858 1196 Harvard
M.Grubb
0.00540247
39 Imperial College
Year
Discipline
Affiliation 1
1971 Atmospheric Scienc MIT
1967 Economics
MIT
1985* Economics
U of Cambridge
• Prof. Jacoby thought that MIT might not be represented b/c:
• WGIII (vol 3) didn’t examine MIT’s models (more
political).
• MIT chooses not to be dragged into the fray.
• Our models are used by others.
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Longest Path
• Longest Path
• 19 edges
• 20 authors
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Details of Long Path
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Author
Full Name
Nationality
B.Aniansson
U.Svedin
C.Folke
M.Gadgil
J.A.McNeely
W.V.Reid
J.Goldemberg
J.R.Moreira
G.Marland
I.Fung
P.A.Matson
W.H.Schlesinger
S.A.Prior
B.A.Kimball
M.Johnson
J.King
D.J.Noakes
V.V.Ivanov
A.P.Nagurnyi
P.A.Abaza
Britt Aniansson
Uno Svedin
Carl Folke
Madhav Gadgil
Jeffery McNeely
Walter Reid
Jose Goldemberg
Jose R. Moreira
Swedish*
Swedish*
Swedish*
Indian
US
US
Brazilian
Brazilian
Inez Fung
Pamela A. Matson US*
Stephen A. Prior
US*
Bruce A. Kimball US*
Mark Johnson
US*
John W. King
US*
David L. G. Noakes Canadian*
Vladimir Ivanov
Russian*
Andrei P. Nagurnyi Russian*
PhD
Harvard
UCLA
U of Washinton
U of Sao Paulo
U of Sao Paulo
U of Minnesota
MIT
Oregon State
Cornell
Auburn
Colorado State
Cornell
U of Minnesota
UC Berkeley
St. Petersberg
Field/Year
Biology*/1969
Anthropology/196X
Zoology/1987
Physics
Physics
Geology/1972
Meteorology/1977
Ecology/1983
Agronomy/1993
Ecology/1997
Soil Chemistry/1986
Geology/1983
Zoology/1971
Oceanography/1992
Discipline
Negotiations
Negotiations
Economics
Ecology
Biodiversity
Biodiversity
Energy
Affiliation 1
Swedish Council for
Swedish Council for
Royal Swedish Acad
Indian Institute of Sc
IUCN
Director of the Millen
Instituto de Eletrotec
Instituto de Eletrotec
Geology
Indiana State Univer
Atmospheric Science UC Berkeley
Earth Science
UC Berkeley
Biology
Duke
Earth Science
National Soil Dynam
USDA
Earth Science
EPA
Oceanography
University of Rhode
Zoology
University of Guelph
Oceanography
University of Plymou
(arctic fish/ocean)
AARI
(arctic fish/ocean)
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Analysis of IPCC Volumes
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3 Volumes
V1: Scientific Basis – pure science
V2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
- science (50%) + policy & economics (50%)
V3: Mitigation – science (20%) + policy & economics (80%)
V1
V2
V3
# of authors
7024
10072
3481
# of papers
4650
6841
2846
m
40491
30546
7191
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Hypothesis 1
H: Each field has a different structure in the
collaboration network.
1) Collaboration statistics
V1
V2
V3
<k>
5.76
3.03
2.07
# papers of single author # of authors per paper
209 (2.97%)
3.78
1069 (10.61%)
2.83
669 (19.22%)
2.23
Scientists tend to collaborate more than social scientists.
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Hypothesis 1
2) Distance and Cluster
V1
frequency
30
V2
30
20
20
20
10
10
10
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
V3
30
0
0
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22
1
3
5
7
9
Average Path
Lengths
Unreachable
pairs (%)
Longest Path
Lengths
Largest
Cluster
V1
4.85
34.50
13
80.92 %
V2
V3
6.09
5.98
74.45
86.96
24
15
50.49 %
36.02 %
11
13
Many of social scientists tend to have own individual research group
and do not collaborate with other research groups.
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15
Hypothesis 1
3) Centrality
Betweenness
Degree
Closeness
V1
0.045
0.023
0.237
V2
0.024
0.009
0.167
V3
0.028
0.014
0.143
Scientists’ collaboration network is the most centralized.
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Hypothesis 2
H: There might exist political influence in selection of
journal articles in IPCC report.
1) Nationality
14
V1
V2
Nationality distribution of Top 20 authors
USA
V3
12
10
only 1 out of 60
8
6
4
Germany
Australia
2
Netherlands
UK
Other
developed
countries
developing
countries
0
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Hypothesis 2
2) IPCC Editors
# of editors
# of editors in top 20 # of editors in top 50
V1
139
9 (6.5%)
18 (12.9%)
V2
199
9 (4.5%)
19 (9.5%)
V3
116
11 (9.5%)
23 (19.8%)
Editors have a great influence in the V3.
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Hypothesis 2
2) IPCC Editors
Nationality distribution of IPCC editors
40
35
V1
Other
developed
countries
USA
V2
30
V3
25
% 20
15
Developing
countries
UK
Germany
10 Australia
Canada
5
Japan
Russia
Netherlands
0
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This looks like we have enough researchers from developing countries
Hypothesis 2
2) IPCC Editors
Nationality distribution of IPCC editors in top 50
12
V1
V2
V3
USA
10
8
UK
6
Germany
4
2
Canada
Netherlands
Other
developed
countries
Developing
countries
Japan
0
Editors who have a big influence on the network
are mostly
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from USA and UK.
Lessons for International Research
Projects
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Lessons
• Climate change is a science-based problem
• Most Top 20 Authors were senior
scientists/researchers
• Climate change is a cross-cutting challenge, yet little
integrated research
• Most collaborations were scientist-only
• Efforts should be made to increase collaborations
among ecologists, economists, scientists, and policymakers
• “Affirmative action” for developing country researchers
to offset capacity issues
• Associate them with the most “central” researchers
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• Thank you.
• Questions?
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J.B.Smith Neighborhood
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