CIMSS/ASPB PG April 2010
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Meetings
Visits involving NWS
AWIPS Migration
GRIB2
Norman Haz Wx Testbed
Local Area Haz Wx Testbed
Real-time ABI simulations using NSSL WRF
WES ABI status
Working with AK PG effort
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Related topics
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GOES-R and Fog
Forecast Sky Cover Product Provided to NWS
Near-casting examples
VISITview Training
CIMSS Satellite blog
GOES-15 First visible images
GOES-13 cut-over
GOES-11
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Meetings
• On March 22, 2010, J. Gerth gave a presentation at
the Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop
in Toronto, Canada, titled “Enhancing Local Model
Studies with Initial Conditions from Satellites for
Great Lakes Research”.
• The presentation focused on how current operational
and experimental satellite data is of use to the Great
Lakes operational meteorology community and the
kind of changes that can be expected with the
GOES-R series satellites as well as what it means for
operational meteorology and numerical weather
prediction.
• During the meeting, forecasters underscored the
need for detection and tracking capability of gravity
wave features in satellite imagery.
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Visits involving NWS
• On Friday, January 29, 2010, J. Gerth visited NWS
Sullivan to assess the current state of the research to
operations products provided.
• On Monday, March 15, 2010, CIMSS hosted
forecaster Marcia Cronce, senior forecaster Steve
Hentz, and Information Technology Officer Jerry
Wiedenfeld from NWS Sullivan.
• Discussed plans for the upcoming GOES-R
simulated product demonstration and evaluation
testbed which will occur this summer.
• An overview was given of the convective initiation
and nearcasting products that are currently in use at
NWS Sullivan.
• There was also discussion about the progression of
the AWIPS migration.
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AWIPS Migration
• J. Gerth continues to serve as the CIMSS
representative on the AWIPS II teleconference call for
the GOES-R Proving Ground partners, as well as the
AWIPS II Governance Tiger Team. Additional time
will be required shortly with NWS/NCEP and the
NESDIS AWIPS focal point to pursue our GOES-R
PG product transition approach.
• Currently assessing operating system and hardware
requirements to run AWIPS II outside of a NWS
forecast office. Our development equipment is
adequately handling the software.
• Continue to receive and install new builds of the
software, most recently TO11 DR9.
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POES data in local AWIPS2
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GRIB2
• Convective initiation products now available in GRIB2
format. The GRIB2 format is compliant with WMO
and NCEP standards. AWIPS netCDF delivery will
be phased out at our beta test sites. NWS Sullivan,
SPC, and Spaceflight Met Group will be first users of
GRIB2 format.
• Intend to launch GRIB2 to all interested field offices
in the coming weeks. Web site will be available.
• S. Lindstrom is currently preparing training via the
VISIT program.
• GRIB2 products do not work with N-AWIPS due to
irregular initial times and memory allocations in the
software.
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Norman Haz Wx Testbed
• W. Feltz and J. Gerth will visit C. Siewert in Norman,
OK, on April 26, 27 to finalize data flow and
functionality of products that will be demonstrated as
part of the spring experiment at the Storm Prediction
Center.
• Deadline for delivery of products for evaluation as
established in the plan was April 1.
• Currently working with Greg Stumpf to assure access
to the convective initiation products in AWIPS for the
Experimental Warning Program.
• The methodology for providing data to N-AWIPS will
continue similar to last year. Loop back delivery
allows CIMSS to remotely detect when delivery to the
SPC has failed in this approach.
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GOES Proxy Overshooting Top (OT)
and Decision Support Detection
Provided to SPC HWT for GOES-R PG Spring
2010
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OT Validation
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Local Area Haz Wx Testbed
• The local area HWT with NWS Sullivan will run
predominantly Tuesday and Thursday of each week
from the middle of May through the end of August.
• NWS Sullivan forecaster will be dedicated to working
with CIMSS scientist in consistently assessing the
functionality of the GOES-R PG demonstration
products during the upcoming convective season.
• J. Craven, M. Cronce, (NWS Sullivan) and J. Gerth
(CIMSS) are working to prepare questions which will
be provided to NWS Sullivan forecasters on each
assessment shift as they find use for the convective
initiation and nearcasting products.
• We are looking to quantify not only lead time against
radar and lightning data, but compared to the
forecasters’ subjective assessment of when
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convective initiation is imminent.
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UW/CIMSS is generating simulated ABI
Bands 8-16 using NSSL-WRF once daily
Resolving timing issue related to file
transfer from NSSL to CIMSS; causing
unnecessary lag.
Currently in test mode, webpage is
updated by 11am for 7 timesteps. After
timing issue hope to process 19
timesteps [12-06 UTC] by 8 am (central).
ABI Band 10
(7.34 µm)
ABI Band 13
(10.35 µm)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provin
g-ground/nssl_abi/nssl_abi_rt.html
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GOES-R ABI WES Case
• Reviewing feedback and making
changes as necessary.
• Adding simulated data over the Pacific
Ocean.
• Updating WES guide
• Have inquired about eventual steps for
converting case into AWIPS II compliant
format.
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ABI WES case: Added a set of ABI
simulated images from 21Z on Jun 26, 2008
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GOES-R AWG Fog/Low
Cloud Detection Algorithm
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The official GOES-R fog/low cloud detection product is designed to
quantitatively identify clouds that produce Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or
Low Instrument Flight Rules (LIFR) conditions (ceiling < 1000 ft (305 m)).
The GOES-R fog detection is expressed as a probability, which is derived from
textual and spectral information, as well as the difference between the cloud
radiative temperature and surface temperature. Cloud object processing is also
used to improve algorithm skill.
Fog cannot be accurately detected if there are higher cloud layers overlapping
the fog layer. The accuracy specifications account for this.
Since the properties of the cloud base are not directly measured, variations in
cloud base due to local boundary layer effects (e.g. local moisture
sources/sinks and local turbulent mixing processes) generally will not be
captured. As such, not every surface observation underneath a GOES-R
detected low cloud will necessarily indicate a ceiling of 1000 ft or lower, but
those surface observations that do not indicate LIFR or IFR will generally
indicate Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR) conditions.
The GOES-R AWG fog product is included in the High Latitude and Winter
Testbed and Alaska Experiment Operations Plan.
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Examples are shown in the subsequent slides.
GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm
(night)
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RGB image (R = 3.9 m emissivity, G = 11 m BT, B = 11 m BT) of the
US on December 13, 2009 at 7:45 UTC (1:45 am CST) with surface
observations showing visibility in miles.
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GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm
(night)
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The fog probability determined from the GOES-R fog detection
algorithm is contoured over the false color image.
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GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm
(night)
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GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm (day)
•RGB image (R=0.65m reflectance, G=3.9m reflectance, B=11m BT) of the US on
December 13, 2009 at 15:45 UTC (9:45 am CST) with surface observations showing
visibility in miles
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GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm (day)
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The fog probability determined from the GOES-R fog detection
algorithm is contoured over the false color image.
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GOES-R Fog Detection Algorithm (day)
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GOES-R AWG Volcanic Ash
Products
• The official GOES-R volcanic ash products are: ash
cloud height and ash mass loading (ash effective
radius is also produced).
• Recently, we have updated Geocat to allow for
MODIS processing. MODIS direct broadcast data
can be used to test and evaluate the GOES-R
algorithm in the Alaska Region.
• We are in the process of transitioning a “scaled
down,” AVHRR based, version of the GOES-R ash
products to the University of Alaska - Fairbanks. UAF
is well positioned to provide products to the
Anchorage VAAC with low time latency.
• AVHRR Transition status: we are working through
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some data format issues.
Soufriere Hills - Aqua MODIS 2/12/2010 05:30 UTC
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Redoubt Aqua MODIS
3/26/2009
22:40 UTC
Ash
Meteo Cloud
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NEW VISIT TELETRAINING MODULES
Now on
Visit
Training
Calendar!
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Some recent CIMSS Satellite Blog posts
relevant to GOES-R
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/5092
(SRSO OPERATIONS FROM GOES-13)
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/4831
(USE OF NEAR-IR ABI CHANNELS)
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/4716
(CIRRUS DETECTION ABI CHANNEL)
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/4777
(NEARCAST CONVECTION W/ SOUNDER WV DATA, ECLIPSE ISSUES)
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/4624
(CONVECTIVE INITIATION)
• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/4920
(DETECT BLOWING DUST WITH 12-MICROMETER DATA)
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Forecast Sky Cover Product Provided to National
Weather Service AWIPS
• The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite
Studies (CIMSS) is using the the CIMSS Regional
Assimilation System (CRAS) to generate a forecast
sky cover product in real-time for the National
Weather Service (NWS) AWIPS.
24-hour forecast sky
cover (%) from CRAS
valid 00UTC April 5,
2010.
• Sky cover is computed using a combination of CRAS
forecast cloud mixing ratio, forward calculated
radiative transfer and spherical geometry. Accuracy
of the product is dependent on the use of GOES
sounder cloud and water vapor products to initialize
clouds in the CRAS.
24-hour forecast 11
micron image from
CRAS valid 00UTC
April 5, 2010.
• Forecast satellite imagery and sky cover (shown at
right), are transmitted every 12 hours to a website
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/) and to NWS
AWIPS for evaluation.
The Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) used by NWS
forecasters requires forecast sky cover grids which
are not generated by NWS models at this time.
Validating IR image from GOES-13
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00UTC April 5, 2010.
(Courtesy of Robert Aune)
Using the GOES-12 Sounder to Nearcast Severe Weather
Robert Aune (NESDIS) and Ralph Petersen (CIMSS)
The CIMSS Near-casting Model uses hourly GOES Sounder retrievals of layered precipitable water
(PW) and equivalent potential temperature (Theta-E) to predict severe weather outbreaks up to
6 hours in advance!
Hourly, multi-layered observations from the GOES Sounder are projected forward in time along
Lagrangian trajectories forced by gradient winds. “Trajectory observations” from the previous six
hours are retained in the analysis. Destabilization is indicated when theta-E decreases with height.
Limitations:
- Sounder channels support only two layers for near-casting
- Only useful for elevated convection – Sounder can’t detect low-level moisture
- Frequent false alarms – Sounder can’t detect inversions
One Example of a Successful Near-cast
Low-level Theta-E NearCasts shows
warm moist air band moving into far
NW Iowa by 2100 UTC.
Vertical Theta-E Differences predict
complete convective instability by
2100 UTC.
Severe thunderstorms
occurs as predicted!
6-hour NearCast for 2100 UTC
Low level Theta-E
6-hour NearCast for 2100 UTC
Low to Mid level Theta-E Differences
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Rapid Development of Convection over NW Iowa
between 2000 and 2100 UTC 9 July 2009
A Hyper-Spectral Geo-Sounder Will Near-cast Severe Weather
An Observing System Simulation Experiment
Simulated ABI
Weak gradients of low-level Theta-E
are indicated by ABI which has only
two water vapor channels.
5-hour NearCast for 2000 UTC
Low level Theta-E
Negative vertical Theta-E differences
indicate where convection is likely.
5-hour NearCast for 2000 UTC
Low to Mid level Theta-E Differences
Robert Aune (NOAA/NESDIS)
A WRF model simulation of the June 12,
2002 IHOP case was used to generate
simulated radiances from a GOES-R
Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and a
geostationary Hyper-spectral Environmental
Sounder (HES). Simulated radar reflectivity
was also generated
Temperature and moisture profiles were
retrieved from the simulated radiance
datasets and assimilated by the CIMSS
Near-casting Model and compared.
Simulated composite reflectivity
indication the formation of convection.
Rapid Development of Convection over Texas and
Nebraska between 2000 and 2100 UTC 12 June 2002
Simulated HES
Strong low-level Theta-E gradients
are indicated by HES which has the
ability to detect low-level moisture.
5-hour NearCast for 2000 UTC
Low level Theta-E
Negative vertical Theta-E differences
indicate where convection is likely.
5-hour NearCast for 2000 31
UTC
Low to Mid level Theta-E Differences
GOES-15 First Visible images
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/media/spotlight/goes15/
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/5005
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100407_goes15.html
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GOES-P/news/first-image.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/5045
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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/
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Sounder
Imager
GOES-13 Operational East!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/5116
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GOES-11 “sees” a Meteor?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.
edu/goes/blog/archive
s/5167
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