Evolution of the Global Observing System Lectures in Bertinoro 23 Aug – 2 Sep 2004 Paul Menzel NOAA/NESDIS/ORA Current Space based part of the Global Observing System There are many non space based components in the Global Observing System Applications Area Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System * User requirements charted against observing system capabilities * Rolling requirements review (RRR) readily applied to a diversity of application areas, provided database of user requirements and observing system capabilities was accurate Applications Area Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System Wind profile 500-100 hPa (HT) Analysis for Global NWP 1. Requirement Summary and assessment key Colour key Optimum Hor Vert Cycle Delay Acc km km h h m/s 50.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 107.7 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 232.1 4.6 5.2 2.5 4.0 500.0 10.0 12.0 4.0 8.0 Median Threshold Cycle colo ur assessment based o n a co nstellatio n of 2 polar-orbiting satellites (1 geostatio nary) 2. Instruments for: Wind profile 500-100 hPa (HT) Sho wing relevant instruments for which details are available Instrument Hor Vert km # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 RADAR RA-IV C 3.0 RADAR RA-VI WE 3.0 Amdar FL RA-IV C 90.0 SEVIRI 100.0 Amdar FL RA-VI WE 38.0 IMAGER 150.0 IMAGER 150.0 IMAGER/MTSAT 150.0 SOUNDER 150.0 SOUNDER 150.0 MVIRSR (3 channel) 50.0 Amdar FL RA-VI EE 159.0 MVIRI 150.0 MVIRI 150.0 VISSR (GMS-5) 150.0 VHRR 150.0 Amdar FL RA-V SW 167.0 Amdar FL RA-II S 310.0 Amdar FL RA-IV N 318.0 Amdar FL RA-II W 429.0 WND P 449 RA-IV C 700.0 WND P 915 RA-IV C 1000.0 Amdar FL NAO CST 50.0 Raobs RA-VI WE 218.0 Raobs RA-II E 294.0 Raobs RA-IV C 331.0 Raobs RA-VI EE 369.0 Amdar FL MED 156.0 Raobs RA-II S 442.0 Raobs RA-II N 444.0 Raobs RA-IV N 447.0 Cycle km # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 h # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 1.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.3 0.1 5.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 Delay h # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 1.0 1.0 24.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 24.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 Acc # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 Mission m/s # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 name # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 2.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 Orbit rating # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ MSG-1,,3 WWW_in situ GOES-9,,M GOES-8,L MTSAT-1 GOES-9,,M GOES-8,L FY-2A,2B WWW_in situ Meteosat-3,,7 Meteosat-5 GMS-5 INSAT-2A,,2E WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ WWW_in situ # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 # # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G1 G2 G5 G1 G2 G5 G3 G3 G4 G5 G4 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 * User requirements charted against observing system capabilities * Rolling requirements review (RRR) readily applied to a diversity of application areas, provided database of user requirements and observing system capabilities was accurate Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System • • • OSEs test possible GOS re-configurations With the Rapporteurs of Regional and Global OSEs: hypothetical changes to the GOS could be explored in OSEs with NWP centre assistance, provided data assimilation procedures were well understood and impact studies were conducted in a statistically significant way. OSSEs required huge human and computer resources and were beyond the available resources Regional Basic Synoptic Networks (Surface) - GOS • Jul 2002 monitoring results of overall implementation in Regional Basic Synoptic Networks (RBSNs) of surface and upper-air stations shows increasing stability • But there are still weakness over certain areas of Regions I, II, III and V. SYNOP - GOS 90 80 • SYNOP at MTN Centers – 2001-2002 remained unchanged globally at 75% from 2000 (up from 72% in 1999 report) 70 60 50 Sat. • Insuf. 40 30 20 10 0 RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6 Afr Asia SA NA Aust Eur Results from monitoring exercise for July 2002 Deficiencies in surface data coverage: – Inadequate funds to rehabilitate and operate observational and telecommunications equipment GOS – Radiosonde Observations Raobs over land every 12 hours are providing * all weather temperature and moisture profiles * wind profiles along ascent path Upper Air Network - GOS 90 80 • Upper Air at MTN Centers 70 60 50 >60% <60% 40 30 – Remained unchanged globally at 61% from 2000 (up from 58% in 1999 report) • Deficiencies in coverage: – Lack of trained staff and consumables in countries with financial difficulties 20 10 0 RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6 Afr Asia SA NA Aust Eur Results from monitoring exercise for July 2002 GOS – Automated Surface Observing System ASOS over land every hour are providing * Surface temperature and pressure and wind * Hydrometeor detection * Cloud detection up to 10,000 ft GOS – AMDAR Aircraft Reports along flight tracks every 6 minutes are providing * temperature and wind * profiles during landing and takeoffs * moisture sensors are being added to newer systems GOS – AMDAR Aircraft Reports along flight tracks every 6 minutes are providing * temperature and wind * profiles during landing and takeoffs * moisture sensors are being added to newer systems Data taken Data Received Ship and Buoy Reports - GOS GOS – VOS and Buoys • • Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) • Decline from over 900 in 1999 to around 6000 ships reporting per day • Quality and total number of reports stable at around 160,000 per month VOS Climate Project being implemented to provide subset of high quality VOS data • Data buoy program – 12% increase in drifting buoys since May 2000 • 900 active drifting buoys deployed globally with half providing pressure observations – Significant impact • Increase in monthly pressure reports over GTS from 40,000 to 200,000 continues to increase • Stable moored buoy system continues to provide data over GTS GOS - In-situ Ocean Profiles from ARGO ARGO network of 575 floats deployed as of October 2002 with plans for network of 3000 by end of 2005 GOS - POES global soundings am and pm Each ATOVS provides global sounding coverage every 12 hours GOS - The Geo Component 20 GOS – Geo Cloud Motion Vectors Five geos are providing global coverage for winds in tropics and mid-lats GOS – Geo Soundings Hourly coverage from two GOES-Sounders is providing * radiances from 4 to 15 microns * clear sky temperature and moisture profiles * cloud amount and height * motion from moisture and cloud features GOS – Cloud Properties Hourly coverage from two GOES-Sounders is providing cloud amount and height Space - based GOS Current operational space- based GOS • Geostationary – EUMETSAT • Meteosat-8 at 0 • Meteosat-5 at 63E • Meteosat-7 (spare) – Russian Federation • GOMS-1 at 76E – People's Republic of China • FY-2B at 105E – Japan • GOES-9 at 155E – United States of America • GOES-10 at 135W • GOES-12 at 75W • Polar Orbiting – People's Republic of China • FY-1C & 1D – Russian Federation • METEOR-2 and 3 series – United States of America • NOAA-15 • NOAA-16 • NOAA-17 Research component of space - based GOS • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA; ENVISAT data is available also Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data ERS from ESA Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA; ENVISAT data is available also Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data More than 50 MODIS/AIRS direct broadcast reception sites world wide Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA; ENVISAT data is available also Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Polar WV winds have significant positive NWP impact MODIS 1 km WV images first ever Polar winds are now possible Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA; ENVISAT data is available also Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data ENVISAT carries 10 Instruments for different environmental purposes, including MERIS Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Research component of space - based GOS • • • • Research satellite operators providing data for operational utilization NASA providing MODIS Direct Readout from Terra and Aqua, Quikscat winds, and AIRS radiances for NWP centres from Aqua Altimetry data being provided by NASA/CNES and ESA Plans also in place for NASDA and Roshydromet to provide data Monthly merged precipitation product based on TRMM data. 3 hourly global precipitation products also available. Radio occultation - GOS CHAMP Rocsat 3 EPS Metop (GRAS) ACE NPOESS (GPSOS) WATS Observations per day 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year This is a prediction based on planned and proposed missions NWP User Requirements vs GOS Provision priority parameters temperature, humidity, and wind profiles total column humidity, cloud top height, and cloud water content. NWP requirements (median to optimum) Hourly profiles, 10-50 km hor res, 1 km vert res T(p) to 1 K and Q(p) to 0.5 g/kg, V(p) to 1 m/s accuracy tot Q to 1000 g/m2 cloud heights to 0.5 km, cloud water content to 20 g/m2. currently available winds at 100 km resolution every 3-6 hrs 3 m/s for low and 7.5 m/s for high, speed biases less than 1.0 m/s aircraft wind reports, ocean sfc scatterometer winds T & Q profiles at 100 km res 4x daily from leos T(p) to 2.0-2.5 K rms wrt raobs, RH within 20%, clear sky only Performance-benefit curve for an observing system Excerpts from Global NWP SOG Ongoing need for operational measurements from at least 2 polar orbiting and 5 geostationary platforms. NWP requires v(p) (especially in tropics) and T(p) and Q(p) with raob type accuracy over land and ocean. NWP showed positive impact from recent addition of AMSUs (adding stratospheric skill and cloudy sky soundings). Increased coverage of aircraft data providing benefit, particularly from ascent/descent. NWP awaiting high spectral resolution measurements from AIRS, IASI, & CrIS (for enhanced vertical resolution clear sky soundings). Measurement of wind profiles most challenging (remote sensing lidar systems offer promise, but need opportunity to mature). NWP needs include surface pressure, snow equivalent water content, precipitation, and soil moisture. Variational data assimilation techniques offer potential for improved exploitation of observations with high temporal frequency (geo IR interferometer and microwave). OSE shows Impact of two AMSUs ECMWF and UK Met Office provided clear evidence of increased NWP benefit of microwave measurements from two versus only one polar orbiting AMSU. 500 hPa geopotential showing one day increase in forecast skill over Europe at 5 days with two AMSU over none in 50 cases. Eur Impact of 3 AMSUs vs 2 NA Aircraft reports starting over poles and southern oceans OSE shows Impact of NH Ascent and Descent AMDAR Forecast error for North America at six forecast centers since 1991 90 Statistical analysis of forecast scores from 6 forecast centres 80 for past 10 years show significant improvement skill at all NWP centres and anomalously poor performance in 1999, possibly related to Russian Federation raob reduction 70 72h Bracknell meters 72h ECMWF 72h Montreal 60 72h Tokyo 72h Toulouse 50 72h Washington 120h Bracknell 120h ECMWF 40 120h Montreal 120h Tokyo 30 120h Toulouse 120h Washington 20 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Mean annual 500 hPa RMS height errors over North America Raobs decreased in from 1996 to 1999 in Region II RBSN TEMP Observations actually received 600 Total Observations 500 400 Region I Region II Region III Region IV Region V Region VI 300 200 100 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 October Monitoring Period 1-Afr 2-Asia 3-SA 4-NA 5-Aust 6-Eur 2000 Polar Winds OSE Error Propagation to the Midlatitudes: Snowfall Accumulated snowfall forecasts, in mm water equivalent, over Alaska on 03/20/02 (end of animation period). At right is the snowfall from the 5-day CTL forecast, below left is the snowfall from the 5-day MODIS forecast, below right is the snowfall from a 12-hr forecast for verification. The CTL run produced spurious snowfall in southern Alaska. CTL mid-trop MODIS “TRUTH” Upper Air Observations Needed To Forecast Weather For The Lower 48 States For 1, 2-4 & 6-7 Days Impact over 25 days of polar WV winds in ECMWF Fcst for Arctic 1000 hPa - sfc 500 hPa - mid trop Forecast scores (anomaly correlations) as a function of forecast range for the geopotential at 1000 hPa (left) and 500 hPa (right). Study period is 5-29 March 2001. Forecast scores are the correlation between the forecast geopotential height anomalies, with and without the MODIS winds, and their own analyses. The Arctic (“N. Pole”) is defined as north of 65 degrees latitude. There is a significant positive impact on forecasts of geopotential from assimilation of MODIS WV winds, particularly for Arctic, but also for whole Northern Hemisphere (next slide). Latest Observing-System Experiments Northern hemisphere Southern hemisphere Verification against control analysis from ECMWF ECMWF Evolution of forecast skill for northern and southern hemispheres Radio Occultation © GFZ-Potsdam, Germany Radiometric temperature profile retrieval improvements (RMS) for different combinations of geometric (GPS), surface (SFC), IR (HIRS), and MW (AMSU) data. ATOVS +GPS bias and RMS errors wrt RAOBS are shown as a reference in bottom right panel. Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System Candidate Observing Systems • • The future GOS should build upon existing components, both surface and space based, and capitalize on existing and new observing technologies not presently incorporated or fully exploited Each incremental addition to the GOS would be reflected in better data, products and services from the NMHSs Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System Impact of Evolution • The impact of the changes to the GOS in the next decades will be so massive that new revolutionary approaches for science, data handling, product development, training, and utilization would be required • There is an urgent need to study comprehensive strategies for anticipating and evaluating changes to the GOS Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System • Evolution of the GOS – 42 recommendations • final report of CBS/IOS/ICT-2 (14-18 October 2002). • Recommendations reflected: • Statements of guidance in 11 application areas NWP, synoptic met, nowcasting, SIA fcst, marine wx fcst, atm chem, aero met, agro met, hydrology, … • Results from regional programmes such as COSNA, EUCOS and NAOS • Conclusions from the March, 2000,Toulouse Workshop on Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP • Numerous OSEs Future Space Based Global Observing System M ETEO R 3 M ( R u s s ia n F e d e r a t io n ) FY-1 ( C h in a ) Hig h -re so lu tio n La n d u se Missio n s 8 50 KM G O E S -E O c e a n o g ra p h ic Missio n s (U S A ) G O ES-W 75 W N A O 135W S U B S A T E LLIT E P O IN T R & D o rb it GE O ST A T I O RY (U SA ) IT RB 35 80 0 K m Po la r o 14 0 E rb it Atm o sp h e ric C h e m istry Missio n s M TSA T (Ja p a n ) F Y -2 M SG ( C h in a ) (E U M E TSA T) 10 5 E 0 L o n g it u d e M ETEO SA T (E U M E TSA T) GOMS ( R u s s ia n F e d e r a tio n ) 63 E 76E N PO ESS (U S A ) M e to p (E U M E TSA T) Hyd ro lo g ic a l Missio n s US Missions leading to future GOS 2005 Current Era • POES • GOES • • • • TRMM TOPEX EOS QUIKSCAT 2010 Near Focus • NPP • EO • NPOESS • ABI/HES 2020 Advanced Concepts • • • • • Hyperspectral Imaging Lidars Geo Soil Moist Sensors CO2 Lidar Ocean Mixed Layer Lidar • Synthetic Aperture Radiometry • New Initiatives NOAA lead Missions NASA leveraged Missions European Missions to future GOS 2005 Current Era • MSG 2010 Near Focus • Earth Watch & Explorer • METOP • MTG • ERS • ENVISAT 2020 Advanced Concepts • • • • • Hyperspectral Wind Lidars Geo Soil Moist Sensors Cloud Lidar Broadband Radiation Imager • New Initiatives EUMETSAT lead Missions ESA leveraged Missions Japanese Missions to future GOS 2005 Current Era • GMS • Terra (ASTER) • TRMM • Aqua (AMSR) • ADEOS (GLI) 2010 Near Focus 2020 Advanced Concepts • GCOM • MTSAT • • • • Hyperspectral IR GLI Precipitation Mission New Initiatives JMA lead Missions NASDA leveraged Missions Chinese Missions to future GOS 2005 Current Era • FY1(leo) • FY2 (geo) 2010 Near Focus 2020 Advanced Concepts • FY3 (leo) (VIRR,MODI IRAS,MWAS MWRI,TOM/OP) • FY4 (geo) (Imager,Sounder) • Hyperspectral • Conical MW • New Initiatives operational Missions research Missions GIFTS Sampling Characteristics • Two 128x 128 Infrared focal plane detector arrays with 4 km footprint size • One 512 x 512 Visible focal plane detector array with 1 km footprint size • Field of Regard 512 km x 512 km at satellite subpoint • Ten second full spectral resolution integration time per Field of Regard Lidar Wind Measurements: The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) 2015 Vision for GOS For the Space based component, there will be 6 operational GEOs all with multispectral imager (IR/VIS) some with hyperspectral sounder (IR) 4 operational LEOs optimally spaced in time all with multispectral imager (MW/IR/VIS/UV) all with sounder (MW) three with hyperspectral sounder (IR) all with radio occultation (RO) two with altimeter three with conical scan MW or scatterometer Several R&D satellites serving WMO members Constellation small satellites for radio occultation (RO) LEO with wind lidar LEO with active and passive microwave precipitation instruments LEO and GEO with advanced hyperspectral capabilities GEO lightning Possibly GEO microwave All with improved intercalibration and operational continuity. For the Ground based component, there will be Automation to enable targeting of observations in data sensitive areas optimal operation of o radiosondes o ASAP systems o aircraft in flight Rawinsondes optimized utilization stable GUAN supplemented by o AMDAR ascent/descent o ground based GPS water vapor information o wind profilers o satellite soundings rawinsondes automatically launched computerized data processing real-time data transmission high vertical resolution Commercial aircraft observations of temperature & wind plus humidity on some aircraft in-flight and ascent/descent data high temporal resolution available from most airports including currently data void airports in Asia, Africa and South America. possibly supplemented with UAVs Surface observations automated systems land sensors at high spatial resolution, supporting local applications such as road weather ocean platforms (ship, buoys, profiling floats, moorings) in adequate number to complement satellite measurements Radar observing systems measuring radial winds hydrometeor distribution and size precipitation phase, rate, and accumulation multiple cloud layers, including base and top height. Data collection and transmission digital in a highly compressed form entirely computerized data processing role of humans in observing chain reduced to minimum information technology in all areas of life will provide new opportunities for obtaining and communicating observations for satellite data in particular use of ADM including regional/special DCPC in the context of FWIS DB for special local applications in need on minimal time delay and as backup Sensors, Communications, and Computers Remote Sensing of the Earth Equivalent Voice Circuits Computers on Internet 224 425 100 In Millions 400 200 In Billions Number of Sensors 16 16 200 8 CORONA Released 0 0 0 1960 1970 1980 ETF/MEDEA 1990 WWW Mosaic Browser 2000 Volcano and Fires Center Working together in the Global Community All applications areas will have the opportunity to exploit multiple satellite data sets from a variety of research and operational satellites, all at different spectral, spatial, radiometric and temporal resolutions Full exploitation is only possible as a global community in partnership, likely requiring fundamental changes to the way we do business and interact as a community. Moving forward will require realizing paradigm shifts – dynamic research component integrated with a powerful stable operational component – dynamic product stream available to sophisticated users (availability not delivery of selected data & products exploiting alternative dissemination methods) – dynamic utilization with user integrated into the system Striving for the Sustainable Society “A place where humans and their use of the environment are in balance with nature” “living in harmony with the environment and having resilience to natural hazards”