Evolution of the Global Observing System Lectures in Bertinoro

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Evolution of
the Global Observing System
Lectures in Bertinoro
23 Aug – 2 Sep 2004
Paul Menzel
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Current Space based part of the Global Observing System
There are many non space based components in the Global Observing System
Applications Area
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
* User requirements charted
against observing system
capabilities
* Rolling requirements
review (RRR) readily
applied to a diversity of
application areas,
provided database of user
requirements and
observing system
capabilities was accurate
Applications Area
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
Wind profile 500-100 hPa (HT)
Analysis for Global NWP
1.
Requirement Summary and assessment key
Colour key
Optimum
Hor
Vert
Cycle
Delay
Acc
km
km
h
h
m/s
50.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
107.7
2.2
2.3
1.6
2.0
232.1
4.6
5.2
2.5
4.0
500.0
10.0
12.0
4.0
8.0
Median
Threshold
Cycle colo ur assessment based o n a co nstellatio n of 2 polar-orbiting satellites (1 geostatio nary)
2.
Instruments for: Wind profile 500-100 hPa (HT)
Sho wing relevant instruments for which details are available
Instrument
Hor
Vert
km
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
RADAR RA-IV C
3.0
RADAR RA-VI WE
3.0
Amdar FL RA-IV C
90.0
SEVIRI
100.0
Amdar FL RA-VI WE
38.0
IMAGER
150.0
IMAGER
150.0
IMAGER/MTSAT
150.0
SOUNDER
150.0
SOUNDER
150.0
MVIRSR (3 channel)
50.0
Amdar FL RA-VI EE
159.0
MVIRI
150.0
MVIRI
150.0
VISSR (GMS-5)
150.0
VHRR
150.0
Amdar FL RA-V SW
167.0
Amdar FL RA-II S
310.0
Amdar FL RA-IV N
318.0
Amdar FL RA-II W
429.0
WND P 449 RA-IV C 700.0
WND P 915 RA-IV C 1000.0
Amdar FL NAO CST
50.0
Raobs RA-VI WE
218.0
Raobs RA-II E
294.0
Raobs RA-IV C
331.0
Raobs RA-VI EE
369.0
Amdar FL MED
156.0
Raobs RA-II S
442.0
Raobs RA-II N
444.0
Raobs RA-IV N
447.0
Cycle
km
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
h
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
1.0
1.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.3
0.1
5.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
5.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
Delay
h
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
0.1
0.1
1.0
1.0
8.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
8.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
1.0
1.0
24.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
24.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
Acc
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
Mission
m/s
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
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# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
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# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
name
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
2.00
2.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
2.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
6.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 3
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
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# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
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# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
Orbit
rating
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
MSG-1,,3
WWW_in situ
GOES-9,,M
GOES-8,L
MTSAT-1
GOES-9,,M
GOES-8,L
FY-2A,2B
WWW_in situ
Meteosat-3,,7
Meteosat-5
GMS-5
INSAT-2A,,2E
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
WWW_in situ
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 17
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 6
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
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# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
# # Col ourTh i s Cel l ## 2
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G1
G2
G5
G1
G2
G5
G3
G3
G4
G5
G4
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
G3
* User requirements
charted against
observing system
capabilities
* Rolling requirements
review (RRR)
readily applied to a
diversity of
application areas,
provided database of
user requirements
and observing
system capabilities
was accurate
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
•
•
•
OSEs test possible GOS
re-configurations
With the Rapporteurs of Regional
and Global OSEs: hypothetical
changes to the GOS could be
explored in OSEs with NWP centre
assistance, provided data
assimilation procedures were well
understood and impact studies were
conducted in a statistically
significant way.
OSSEs required huge human and
computer resources and were
beyond the available resources
Regional Basic Synoptic Networks (Surface) - GOS
•
Jul 2002 monitoring results of overall implementation in Regional Basic Synoptic
Networks (RBSNs) of surface and upper-air stations shows increasing stability
•
But there are still weakness over certain areas of Regions I, II, III and V.
SYNOP - GOS
90
80
•
SYNOP at MTN Centers
– 2001-2002 remained unchanged
globally at 75% from 2000 (up
from 72% in 1999 report)
70
60
50
Sat. •
Insuf.
40
30
20
10
0
RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6
Afr Asia SA NA Aust Eur
Results from monitoring exercise for July 2002
Deficiencies in surface data
coverage:
– Inadequate funds to rehabilitate
and operate observational and
telecommunications equipment
GOS – Radiosonde Observations
Raobs over land every 12 hours are providing
* all weather temperature and moisture profiles
* wind profiles along ascent path
Upper Air Network - GOS
90
80
• Upper Air at MTN Centers
70
60
50
>60%
<60%
40
30
– Remained unchanged globally
at 61% from 2000 (up from
58% in 1999 report)
• Deficiencies in coverage:
– Lack of trained staff and
consumables in countries with
financial difficulties
20
10
0
RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6
Afr Asia SA NA Aust Eur
Results from monitoring exercise for July 2002
GOS – Automated Surface Observing System
ASOS over land every hour are providing
* Surface temperature and pressure and wind
* Hydrometeor detection
* Cloud detection up to 10,000 ft
GOS – AMDAR
Aircraft Reports along flight tracks every 6 minutes are providing
* temperature and wind
* profiles during landing and takeoffs
* moisture sensors are being added to newer systems
GOS – AMDAR
Aircraft Reports along flight tracks every 6 minutes are providing
* temperature and wind
* profiles during landing and takeoffs
* moisture sensors are being added to newer systems
Data taken
Data Received
Ship and Buoy Reports - GOS
GOS – VOS and Buoys
•
•
Voluntary Observing Ships
(VOS)
• Decline from over 900
in 1999 to around 6000
ships reporting per day
• Quality and total
number of reports
stable at around
160,000 per month
VOS Climate Project being
implemented to provide subset of
high quality VOS data
•
Data buoy program
– 12% increase in drifting buoys since
May 2000
• 900 active drifting buoys
deployed globally with half
providing pressure
observations
–
Significant impact
• Increase in monthly
pressure reports over GTS
from 40,000 to 200,000
continues to increase
• Stable moored buoy system
continues to provide data
over GTS
GOS - In-situ Ocean Profiles from ARGO
ARGO network of 575 floats deployed
as of October 2002 with plans for
network of 3000 by end of 2005
GOS - POES global soundings am and pm
Each ATOVS provides global sounding coverage every 12 hours
GOS - The Geo Component
20
GOS – Geo Cloud Motion Vectors
Five geos are providing global coverage for winds in tropics and mid-lats
GOS – Geo Soundings
Hourly coverage from two GOES-Sounders is providing
* radiances from 4 to 15 microns
* clear sky temperature and moisture profiles
* cloud amount and height
* motion from moisture and cloud features
GOS – Cloud Properties
Hourly coverage from two GOES-Sounders is providing
cloud amount and height
Space - based GOS
Current operational space- based GOS
• Geostationary
– EUMETSAT
• Meteosat-8 at 0
• Meteosat-5 at 63E
• Meteosat-7 (spare)
– Russian Federation
• GOMS-1 at 76E
– People's Republic of China
• FY-2B at 105E
– Japan
• GOES-9 at 155E
– United States of America
• GOES-10 at 135W
• GOES-12 at 75W
• Polar Orbiting
– People's Republic of China
• FY-1C & 1D
– Russian Federation
• METEOR-2 and 3 series
– United States of America
• NOAA-15
• NOAA-16
• NOAA-17
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS
Direct Readout from Terra and
Aqua, Quikscat winds, and
AIRS radiances for NWP
centres from Aqua
Altimetry data being provided
by NASA/CNES and ESA;
ENVISAT data is available
also Plans also in place for
NASDA and Roshydromet to
provide data
ERS from ESA
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS
Direct Readout from Terra and
Aqua, Quikscat winds, and
AIRS radiances for NWP
centres from Aqua
Altimetry data being provided
by NASA/CNES and ESA;
ENVISAT data is available also
Plans also in place for NASDA
and Roshydromet to provide
data
More than 50 MODIS/AIRS
direct broadcast reception sites
world wide
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS
Direct Readout from Terra and
Aqua, Quikscat winds, and
AIRS radiances for NWP
centres from Aqua
Altimetry data being provided
by NASA/CNES and ESA;
ENVISAT data is available also
Plans also in place for NASDA
and Roshydromet to provide
data
Polar WV winds have
significant positive NWP impact
MODIS 1 km WV images first ever
Polar winds are now possible
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided
by NASA/CNES and ESA;
ENVISAT data is available also
Plans also in place for NASDA
and Roshydromet to provide
data
ENVISAT carries
10 Instruments
for different
environmental
purposes,
including MERIS
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided by
NASA/CNES and ESA
Plans also in place for NASDA and
Roshydromet to provide data
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided by
NASA/CNES and ESA
Plans also in place for NASDA and
Roshydromet to provide data
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided by
NASA/CNES and ESA
Plans also in place for NASDA and
Roshydromet to provide data
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided by
NASA/CNES and ESA
Plans also in place for NASDA and
Roshydromet to provide data
Research component of space - based GOS
•
•
•
•
Research satellite operators
providing data for operational
utilization
NASA providing MODIS Direct
Readout from Terra and Aqua,
Quikscat winds, and AIRS
radiances for NWP centres from
Aqua
Altimetry data being provided by
NASA/CNES and ESA
Plans also in place for NASDA and
Roshydromet to provide data
Monthly merged precipitation
product based on TRMM data.
3 hourly global precipitation
products also available.
Radio occultation - GOS
CHAMP
Rocsat 3
EPS Metop (GRAS)
ACE
NPOESS (GPSOS)
WATS
Observations per day
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
This is a prediction based on planned and proposed missions
NWP User Requirements vs GOS Provision
priority parameters
temperature, humidity, and wind profiles
total column humidity, cloud top height, and cloud water content.
NWP requirements (median to optimum)
Hourly profiles, 10-50 km hor res, 1 km vert res
T(p) to 1 K and Q(p) to 0.5 g/kg, V(p) to 1 m/s accuracy
tot Q to 1000 g/m2
cloud heights to 0.5 km, cloud water content to 20 g/m2.
currently available
winds at 100 km resolution every 3-6 hrs
3 m/s for low and 7.5 m/s for high, speed biases less than 1.0 m/s
aircraft wind reports, ocean sfc scatterometer winds
T & Q profiles at 100 km res 4x daily from leos
T(p) to 2.0-2.5 K rms wrt raobs, RH within 20%, clear sky only
Performance-benefit curve for an observing system
Excerpts from Global NWP SOG
Ongoing need for operational measurements from at least 2 polar orbiting
and 5 geostationary platforms.
NWP requires v(p) (especially in tropics) and T(p) and Q(p) with raob type
accuracy over land and ocean.
NWP showed positive impact from recent addition of AMSUs
(adding stratospheric skill and cloudy sky soundings).
Increased coverage of aircraft data providing benefit, particularly from ascent/descent.
NWP awaiting high spectral resolution measurements from AIRS, IASI, &
CrIS (for enhanced vertical resolution clear sky soundings).
Measurement of wind profiles most challenging
(remote sensing lidar systems offer promise, but need opportunity to mature).
NWP needs include surface pressure, snow equivalent water content,
precipitation, and soil moisture.
Variational data assimilation techniques offer potential for improved
exploitation of observations with high temporal frequency
(geo IR interferometer and microwave).
OSE shows Impact of two AMSUs
ECMWF and UK Met Office provided clear evidence of increased
NWP benefit of microwave measurements from two versus only one
polar orbiting AMSU. 500 hPa geopotential showing one day
increase in forecast skill over Europe at 5 days with two AMSU over
none in 50 cases.
Eur
Impact of 3 AMSUs vs 2
NA
Aircraft reports starting over poles and southern oceans
OSE shows Impact of NH Ascent and Descent AMDAR
Forecast error for North America at six forecast centers since 1991
90 Statistical analysis of forecast scores from 6 forecast centres
80
for past 10 years show significant improvement skill at all
NWP centres and anomalously poor performance in 1999,
possibly related to Russian Federation raob reduction
70
72h Bracknell
meters
72h ECMWF
72h Montreal
60
72h Tokyo
72h Toulouse
50
72h Washington
120h Bracknell
120h ECMWF
40
120h Montreal
120h Tokyo
30
120h Toulouse
120h Washington
20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Mean annual 500 hPa RMS height errors over North America
Raobs decreased in from 1996 to 1999 in Region II
RBSN TEMP Observations actually received
600
Total Observations
500
400
Region I
Region II
Region III
Region IV
Region V
Region VI
300
200
100
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
October Monitoring Period
1-Afr 2-Asia 3-SA 4-NA 5-Aust 6-Eur
2000
Polar Winds OSE
Error Propagation to the Midlatitudes: Snowfall
Accumulated snowfall forecasts, in mm water
equivalent, over Alaska on 03/20/02 (end of
animation period). At right is the snowfall from
the 5-day CTL forecast, below left is the
snowfall from the 5-day MODIS forecast, below
right is the snowfall from a 12-hr forecast for
verification. The CTL run produced spurious
snowfall in southern Alaska.
CTL
mid-trop
MODIS
“TRUTH”
Upper Air Observations Needed To Forecast Weather For The Lower 48 States For
1, 2-4 & 6-7 Days
Impact over 25 days of polar WV winds in ECMWF Fcst for Arctic
1000 hPa - sfc
500 hPa - mid trop
Forecast scores (anomaly correlations) as a function of forecast range for the geopotential at 1000 hPa (left) and
500 hPa (right). Study period is 5-29 March 2001. Forecast scores are the correlation between the forecast
geopotential height anomalies, with and without the MODIS winds, and their own analyses. The Arctic (“N. Pole”)
is defined as north of 65 degrees latitude.
There is a significant positive impact on forecasts of geopotential from assimilation of MODIS
WV winds, particularly for Arctic, but also for whole Northern Hemisphere (next slide).
Latest Observing-System Experiments
Northern hemisphere
Southern hemisphere
Verification against control analysis
from ECMWF
ECMWF Evolution of forecast skill for northern and southern
hemispheres
Radio Occultation
© GFZ-Potsdam, Germany
Radiometric temperature profile retrieval improvements (RMS) for different combinations
of geometric (GPS), surface (SFC), IR (HIRS), and MW (AMSU) data. ATOVS +GPS bias
and RMS errors wrt RAOBS are shown as a reference in bottom right panel.
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
Candidate Observing Systems
•
•
The future GOS should build
upon existing components, both
surface and space based, and
capitalize on existing and new
observing technologies not
presently incorporated or fully
exploited
Each incremental addition to the
GOS would be reflected in
better data, products and
services from the NMHSs
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
Impact of Evolution
• The impact of the changes to the GOS in the next decades will
be so massive that new revolutionary approaches for science,
data handling, product development, training, and utilization
would be required
• There is an urgent need to study comprehensive strategies for
anticipating and evaluating changes to the GOS
Observational Data Requirements and Redesign
of the Global Observing System
• Evolution of the GOS
– 42 recommendations
• final report of
CBS/IOS/ICT-2
(14-18 October 2002).
• Recommendations reflected:
• Statements of guidance in 11
application areas
NWP, synoptic met,
nowcasting, SIA fcst,
marine wx fcst, atm chem,
aero met, agro met,
hydrology, …
• Results from regional
programmes such as COSNA,
EUCOS and NAOS
• Conclusions from the March,
2000,Toulouse Workshop on
Impact of Various Observing
Systems on NWP
• Numerous OSEs
Future Space Based Global Observing System
M ETEO R 3 M
( R u s s ia n F e d e r a t io n )
FY-1
( C h in a )
Hig h -re so lu tio n
La n d u se
Missio n s
8 50 KM
G O E S -E
O c e a n o g ra p h ic
Missio n s
(U S A )
G O ES-W
75 W
N
A
O
135W
S U B S A T E LLIT E
P O IN T
R & D o rb it
GE O
ST
A
T
I
O
RY
(U SA )
IT
RB
35 80 0 K m
Po la r
o
14 0 E
rb it
Atm o sp h e ric
C h e m istry
Missio n s
M TSA T
(Ja p a n )
F Y -2
M SG
( C h in a )
(E U M E TSA T)
10 5 E
0 L o n g it u d e
M ETEO SA T
(E U M E TSA T)
GOMS
( R u s s ia n F e d e r a tio n )
63 E
76E
N PO ESS
(U S A )
M e to p
(E U M E TSA T)
Hyd ro lo g ic a l
Missio n s
US Missions leading to future GOS
2005
Current Era
• POES
• GOES
•
•
•
•
TRMM
TOPEX
EOS
QUIKSCAT
2010
Near Focus
• NPP
• EO
• NPOESS
• ABI/HES
2020
Advanced Concepts
•
•
•
•
•
Hyperspectral
Imaging Lidars
Geo Soil Moist Sensors
CO2 Lidar
Ocean Mixed Layer
Lidar
• Synthetic Aperture
Radiometry
• New Initiatives
NOAA lead Missions
NASA leveraged Missions
European Missions to future GOS
2005
Current Era
• MSG
2010
Near Focus
• Earth Watch
& Explorer
• METOP
• MTG
• ERS
• ENVISAT
2020
Advanced Concepts
•
•
•
•
•
Hyperspectral
Wind Lidars
Geo Soil Moist Sensors
Cloud Lidar
Broadband Radiation
Imager
• New Initiatives
EUMETSAT lead Missions
ESA leveraged Missions
Japanese Missions to future GOS
2005
Current Era
• GMS
• Terra
(ASTER)
• TRMM
• Aqua
(AMSR)
• ADEOS
(GLI)
2010
Near Focus
2020
Advanced Concepts
• GCOM
• MTSAT
•
•
•
•
Hyperspectral IR
GLI
Precipitation Mission
New Initiatives
JMA lead Missions
NASDA leveraged Missions
Chinese Missions to future GOS
2005
Current Era
• FY1(leo)
• FY2 (geo)
2010
Near Focus
2020
Advanced Concepts
• FY3 (leo)
(VIRR,MODI
IRAS,MWAS
MWRI,TOM/OP)
• FY4 (geo)
(Imager,Sounder)
• Hyperspectral
• Conical MW
• New Initiatives
operational Missions
research Missions
GIFTS Sampling Characteristics
• Two 128x 128 Infrared
focal plane detector
arrays with 4 km
footprint size
• One 512 x 512 Visible
focal plane detector array
with 1 km footprint size
• Field of Regard 512 km
x 512 km at satellite subpoint
• Ten second full
spectral resolution
integration time per Field
of Regard
Lidar Wind Measurements:
The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus)
2015 Vision for GOS
For the Space based component, there will be
6 operational GEOs
 all with multispectral imager (IR/VIS)
 some with hyperspectral sounder (IR)
4 operational LEOs
 optimally spaced in time
 all with multispectral imager (MW/IR/VIS/UV)
 all with sounder (MW)
 three with hyperspectral sounder (IR)
 all with radio occultation (RO)
 two with altimeter
 three with conical scan MW or scatterometer
Several R&D satellites serving WMO members
 Constellation small satellites for radio occultation (RO)
 LEO with wind lidar
 LEO with active and passive microwave precipitation instruments
 LEO and GEO with advanced hyperspectral capabilities
 GEO lightning
 Possibly GEO microwave
All with improved intercalibration and operational continuity.
For the Ground based component, there will be
Automation to enable
 targeting of observations in data sensitive areas
 optimal operation of
o radiosondes
o ASAP systems
o aircraft in flight
Rawinsondes
 optimized utilization
 stable GUAN
 supplemented by
o AMDAR ascent/descent
o ground based GPS water vapor information
o wind profilers
o satellite soundings
 rawinsondes automatically launched
 computerized data processing
 real-time data transmission
 high vertical resolution
Commercial aircraft observations
 of temperature & wind plus humidity on some aircraft
 in-flight and ascent/descent data
 high temporal resolution
 available from most airports including currently data void airports in Asia, Africa and
South America.
 possibly supplemented with UAVs
Surface observations
 automated systems
 land sensors at high spatial resolution, supporting local applications such as road
weather
 ocean platforms (ship, buoys, profiling floats, moorings) in adequate number to
complement satellite measurements
Radar observing systems measuring
 radial winds
 hydrometeor distribution and size
 precipitation phase, rate, and accumulation
 multiple cloud layers, including base and top height.
Data collection and transmission
 digital in a highly compressed form
 entirely computerized data processing
 role of humans in observing chain reduced to minimum
 information technology in all areas of life will provide new opportunities for obtaining
and communicating observations
 for satellite data in particular
 use of ADM including regional/special DCPC in the context of FWIS
 DB for special local applications in need on minimal time delay and as backup
Sensors, Communications, and Computers
Remote Sensing
of the Earth
Equivalent
Voice Circuits
Computers
on Internet
224
425
100
In Millions
400
200
In Billions
Number of Sensors
16
16
200
8
CORONA
Released
0
0
0
1960
1970
1980
ETF/MEDEA
1990
WWW
Mosaic
Browser
2000
Volcano and
Fires Center
Working together in the Global Community
All applications areas will have the opportunity to exploit multiple satellite data
sets from a variety of research and operational satellites, all at different spectral,
spatial, radiometric and temporal resolutions
Full exploitation is only possible as a global community in
partnership,
likely requiring fundamental changes to the way we do business
and interact as a community.
Moving forward will require realizing paradigm shifts
– dynamic research component integrated with a powerful stable operational
component
– dynamic product stream available to sophisticated users (availability not
delivery of selected data & products exploiting alternative dissemination
methods)
– dynamic utilization with user integrated into the system
Striving for the Sustainable Society
“A place where humans and their use of the environment
are in balance with nature”
“living in harmony with the environment and having
resilience to natural hazards”
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