Capital Planning and Programming
at the MBTA
Topics:
1. Capital Planning and Programming at the MBTA1
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Background
SGR Database Model
Capital Planning Analysis
MBTA Use of SGR
Based on work by Steve Barrang, Director, MBTA Department of Capital Management, and
Brian McCollom, McCollom Management
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 1
Concentrated Service Expansion
Riverside
Riverside
Oak
Oak Grove
Grove
Braintree
Braintree
Worcester
Worcester
Alewife
Alewife
SW
SW
Corridor
Corridor
Newburyport
Newburyport
Silver
Silver Line
Line
Greenbush
Greenbush
Old
Old Colony
Colony
RAPID EXPANSION
Increases in
Rail Route Miles,
Rail Ridership
Vehicle Miles
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 2
Service and Capital Spending Trends
80
$800
70
$700
Revenue Vehicle Miles
$600
50
$500
Straight Line Capital Trend
40
$400
30
Total Capital Expenditures
Straight Line Trend
$300
$200
10
$100
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
$0
19
89
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
0
19
87
20
millions of dollars ($1999)
Revenue Vehicle Miles (millions)
60
slide 3
The MBTA Capital Problem
• System has expanded
• Ongoing Capital Needs are greater
-- system renewal
-- system expansion
• Spending on Ongoing Capital Needs is decreasing
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 4
MBTA Approach
•
MBTA focus is first on developing State of Good Repair
(SGR) Database
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Two Project Objectives
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Legislative:
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Engineering assessment of current assets
Management:
--
Nigel H.M. Wilson
Demonstrate Ongoing Funding Needs
Develop long range capital planning model
Project programming under constrained funding
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 5
State of Good Repair
SGR: The ideal operating condition
• A “perfect” capital replacement policy
SGR
All assets
overage
Nigel H.M. Wilson
All assets < service life
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 6
What is SGR?
• State-of-Good Repair — Replace/Renew when
needed
• Assets are:
– Renewed at critical midlife points
• e.g., Engine replacements, bridge re-deckings, roof
replacements
– Replaced at the end of their useful lives
• e.g., Buses
Rail cars
Bridges
Nigel H.M. Wilson
15 years
35 years
50 years
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 7
SGR Database (Model) Requirements
• Focus on high-cost MBTA assets
– Not a maintenance database of all assets
• Permit periodic data updates
– Staff and resources limited
• Support objective analysis
– Uniform criteria and process
– Reports consequences
• Run scenarios in reasonable time frame
– Less than 5 minutes
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 8
SGR Database — Assets Table
• Stores information about all key MBTA assets
– Vehicles
– Facilities
– Systems
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 9
Asset Table Attributes
• “Condition” Measures
– Age
– Life
• Project “Action” Costs
– Replacement/Renewal
– Cash flow years
• Ranking Measures
– Condition measures
– Operational importance
– Affected ridership
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 10
Scoring Candidate Actions
• Age
Default Weighting
Operational
Impact
20%
Cost
effectiveness
20%
– Age as % of Service Life
• Operational Impact
Age
60%
– Yes/No
– Selected assets are essential to
system operations
• Cost-Effectiveness
– Ridership/Cost of Action
– Reflects customer service impacts
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 11
SGR Programming Process is Sequential
(Year-by-Year)
• Identify candidate projects
– Actions come due
– Delayed projects from prior years
• Score and rank projects
• Fund projects in rank order until:
Cost (project i) > Funds remaining
• Mark unfunded projects as candidates for next year
• Carryover remaining funds to next year
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 12
What are the system’s needs?
• Cost to bring and maintain existing assets to the
“ideal” standards
– Capital Renewals
– Capital Replacements
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 13
Unconstrained Funding
• Baseline comparison for all scenarios
• Simulates effect of unlimited funds applied to capital
needs
• Determines:
– Minimum time and funds needed to achieve SGR
• “Reduce the Backlog”
– Funds required to maintain the system at SGR
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 14
Unconstrained Funding: Backlog
$2,500,000,000.00
$2,000,000,000.00
Needs
Needs
$1,500,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$500,000,000.00
Unconstrained
$0.00
2002
2004
2006
2008
Seven years for
procurements
Nigel H.M. Wilson
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Year
At SGR after 2009
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 15
Unconstrained Funding: Backlog
$2,500,000,000.00
Spending
Spending
$2,000,000,000.00
$1,500,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$500,000,000.00
Unconstrained
$0.00
2002
2004
2006
2008
Seven years for
procurements
Nigel H.M. Wilson
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Year
At SGR after 2009
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 16
Annual Funding: $350M
Current SGR Funding
Backlog
Backlog
Unconstrained
$350M
$4,500,000,000.00
$4,000,000,000.00
$3,500,000,000.00
$3,000,000,000.00
$2,500,000,000.00
$2,000,000,000.00
$1,500,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$500,000,000.00
$0.00
2002
Unconstrained
2004
2006
2008
2010
$350
$0
Nigel H.M. Wilson
$200
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Year
$400
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
$600
$800
slide 17
Annual Funding: $450M
Hold Backlog at Present Level
Unconstrained
$450M
$3,000,000,000.00
$2,500,000,000.00
$2,000,000,000.00
$1,500,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$500,000,000.00
$0.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Unconstrained
Year
$450
$0
Nigel H.M. Wilson
$200
$400
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
$600
$800
slide 18
Annual Funding: $570M
Eliminate Backlog in 20 years
$2,500,000,000.00
Unconstrained
$570M
$2,000,000,000.00
$1,500,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$500,000,000.00
$0.00
2002
Unconstrained
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
$570
$0
Nigel H.M. Wilson
$200
$400
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
$600
$800
slide 19
Other Scenario Measures
• Beginning/Ending Period Comparisons
– Backlog by Asset Type
– Percent of Assets > Service Life by Asset Type
• 20-Year Totals
– Spending by Asset Type
– SGR Needs Funded On-time, Late, Not at All
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 20
MBTA Use of SGR Database
• Desired change in legislative capital funding
• Discussions with MBTA Board
• Potential use in the internal development of the Capital
Improvement Program
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 21
Conclusion
• No transit system can meet the
“ideal” system condition
– We can make more effective decisions
– We can optimize our investments
Nigel H.M. Wilson
1.259J.11.542J/ESD.227J, Fall 2006
Lecture 11
slide 22