Farmers attitudes toward and evaluation and use of insurance for income protection on Montana wheat
farms
by Gordon E Rodewald
A THESIS Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree
of Master of Science in Agricultural Economics
Montana State University
© Copyright by Gordon E Rodewald (1960)
Abstract:
This research problem was designed to examine and evaluate farmers' attitudes toward crop insurance
and to test the adequacy of crop insurance and to test the adequacy of crop insurance as a means of
alleviating the adverse effects of yield variability encountered in dryland grain farming. Crop insurance
was defined as any insurance available for crop protection; in Montana this includes all-risk insurance
and crop-hail insurance.
The hypotheses were: 1) that the use of crop insurance is more important in the short-run than in the
long-run and; 2) that the farmer's use of crop insurance is influenced by his attitude toward and
evaluation of crop insurance in relation to other methods of income protection. The tests were
conducted with emphasis given to the beginning years for the farmer.
To test this hypothesis and the adequacy of crop insurance the farmers attitude toward planning his
farming operation, his attitude toward crop insurance, his evaluation of hazards faced, and his
evaluation of alternative methods of protecting his farm income were determined. These tests were
conducted through the use of; 1) the Guttman scalogram technique for measuring attitudes, and 2) the
paired comparisons technique for determining rank order and finding the scale separation between
hazards and alternative methods of income protection. The results of this analysis were then compared
to the results of budget analysis to determine the adequacy of crop insurance. This was done for two
areas; the Triangle winter wheat and the Northeast spring wheat.
Four yield series compiled from state lease data were used. Two series from each area were used which
were 17 to 20 years in length and in each case the average yield of the series approximated that of its
respective area.
To determine the effectiveness of crop insurance it was necessary to consider, in addition to cash
expenses, the cost of maintaining the farm household. With these expenses it was possible to determine
the effect on farm income of yield variability both in the short and long-run, This was done for the farm
using and not using insurance.
It was found in the study that farmers have a negative attitude toward the use of crop insurance. This
was coupled with a low placing of crop insurance in relation to alternative methods of reducing the
effects of low yields. In addition the budget analysis revealed that this appraisal by farmers may be
accurate with respect to policies presently available. FAEMBIiS ATTITUDES TOWARD AMD EVALUATION
AMD USE OF .INSURANCE FOR INCOME PROTECTION
ON 'MONTANA WHEAT' FARMS
by
G ordon E . Rodewa i d , J r .
A THESIS
S u b m itte d t o t h e G ra d u a te F a c u l t y
in
p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n ts
f o r th e d e g re e o f
M a s te r o f S c ie n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r a l E co n o m ics
at
M ontana S t a t e C o lle g e
A p p ro v e d :
lead , MaYor D e p a rtm e n t
C h a irm a n , E x a m in in g C om m ittee
D ean, G ra d u a te /D iv is io n
Bozem an, M ontana
May I9 6 0
]
hls-?*,.
• 2—
TABLE OF CONTENTS
£age
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS..........................................................................................................
LIST OF TABLES.................................
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.........................................................................................................................
ABSTRACT........................ ...................................................................................................................
CHAPTER I .
CHAPTER I I .
INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................
THE PROBLEM SITU A TIO N .................................
A g r i c u l t u r e on t h e G r e a t P l a i n s ...........................................
R is k and U n c e r t a i n t y D e f i n e d ................................................
U se o f I n s u r a n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r e ...........................................
I n s u r a n c e P o l i c i e s P r e s e n t l y A v a i l a b l e ........................
The R e s e a r c h P ro b le m ....................................................................
OBJECTIVES.......................................................... .... ............................ .... .
HYPOTHESIS.....................................................................................................
PLAN OF FOLLOWING CHAPTERS...............................................................
METHODOLOGY USID IN STUDY....................................................................
The S tu d y A r e a ..................................................................................
P r o c e d u r e o f A n a l y s i s ....................................................................
ATTITUDE SC A L E S............................................................................. .... „
D e te r m in in g A t t i t u d e s ...................................................................
V a l i d i t y o f S c a le S c o r e s and J u s t i f i c a t i o n o f U se .
CONTINGENCY TABLES..................................................................................
PAIRED COMPARISONS..................................................................................
E s t a b l i s h i n g a Rank O rd e r and T e s ti n g t h e Rank
f o r A g re e m e n t..................................................................................
S c a l e V a lu e s f o r t h e Rank O r d e r ...........................................
J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r U s e ....................................................................
BUDGET ANALYSIS .......................................................................................
B u d g e t A s s u m p tio n s ........................................................................
ill
iv
vi
v ii
I
I
I
3
4
6
8
8
9
9
11
11
11
14
14
18
20
23
24
27
33
34
34
CHAPTER I I I .
FARMERS ATTITUDES TOWARD INSURANCE AND PLANNING . . .
P l a n n in g A t t i t u d e S t a te m e n t s ................................................
I n s u r a n c e A t t i t u d e S t a t e m e n t s ................................................
F a rm e r A t t i t u d e s Tow ard P la n n in g .......................................
T e s t i n g P l a n n in g A t t i t u d e s f o r A s s o c i a t i o n . . . .
F a r m e r 's A t t i t u d e s Tow ard C rop I n s u r a n c e ....................
36
36
36
37
39
40
CHAPTER IV .
FARMER'S EVALUATION OF CROP INSURANCE AND HAZARDS
F A C E D .............................
F a r m e r 's E v a l u a t i o n o f C rop I n s u r a n c e .............................
F a r m e r 's E v a l u a t i o n o f T ypes o f H a z a rd s F a c e d . . .
43
43
46
i
140931
TABLE- QF CONTENTS
(c o n tin u e d )
Zags
CHAPTERV.
ADEQUACY OF CROPINSURANCE...................................................................
Use o f Y i e l d S e r i e s on A l l R is k I n s u r a n c e . . . .
U se o f H a i l I n s u r a n c e w i t h t h e Y i e ld S e r i e s . . .
51
53
61
IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH................................................ I m p l i c a t i o n s .......................................................................................
F u t u r e R e s e a r c h ..............................................................................
' 64
CHAPTER V I.
64
66
SUMMARY.....................................................................................................
S u m m a ry ................................................................................................
70
70
APPEND IC IE S ................................................ '................................................................................
APPENDIX A........................................................................
APPENDIX B ................. ......
APPENDIX C...........................................
73
74
78
80
BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................................................
96
CHAPTER V I I .
ii
L IS T OF ILLUSTRATIONS
FLgugg.
PagR
1
Map Of C o u n tie s I n S tu d y A r e a .....................................................................
12
2.
S c a le
45
3
S c a le S e p a r a t i o n s F o r H a z a rd s By G ro u p s.
........................................
48
4
S c a le ' S e p a r a t i o n s F o r H a z a rd s By G ro u p s .............................................
49
5
A c c u m u la te d G ro s s S a v in g s W ith No I n s u r a n c e And W ith A l l R is k I n s u r a n c e F o r Thg F o u r S p r in g W heat F arm s— Y i e l d
S e r i e s Numbgr 1 ...............................................................................
55
A c c u m u la te d G ro s s S a y in g s W ith No I n s u r a n c e And W ith A l l R is k I n s u r a n c e F o r The F o u r W in te r W heat F arm s— Y i e l d
S e r i e s Number 1 ...............................
56
A c c u m u la te d G ro s s S a v in g s W ith No I n s u r a n c e And W ith A l l R is k I n s u r a n c e F o r The F o u r S p r in g W hgat F arm s— Y i e l d
S e r i e s Number 2 ...................................................................................................
57
A c c u m u la te d G ro s s S a v in g s W ith No I n s u r a n c e And W ith A l l R i s k I n s u r a n c e F o r Thg F o u r W in te r W heat F arm s— Y i e l d •
S e r i e s Number 2 ...................................
58
6
7
8
S e p a ra tio n s
F o r A l t e r n a t i v e s By G roups ..............................
iii
L IS T OF TABLES
Paee
Number
I
RESPONSE PATTERN B I QUESTION AND RESPONDENT. . . . . . . .
17
GUTTMAN SCALE ANALYSIS FOR PLANNING ATTITUDES.............................
19
III
OBSERVED CONTINGENCY TABLE FOR SCALE SCORE AND FARMSIZE .
21
IV
EXPECTEDVALUE FOR SCALE SCORE AND FARM S I Z E ..............................
22
V
F MATRIX SHOWING JUDGMENTS OF 251 FARMERS ON ALTERNATIVE
METHODS OF PROTECTION USED BY FARMERS. . .......................................
25
II
VI
P MATRIX
CORRESPONDING TO F M ATRIX..........................................
29
V II
Z MATRIX
CORRESPONDING TO P M ATRIX............................................
30
THEORETICAL NORMAL DEVIATES Z y CORRESPONDING TO SCALE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ITEMS IN THE Z M A T R IX ...................................
31
THEORETICAL PROPORTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES CORRESPONDING TO
THE P M ATRIX........................................................................................... . . .
31
VALUES OF 9 and 9 1-, OBSERVED AND EXPECTED PROPORTIONS
CONVERTED INTO ANGLES IN TERMS OF DEGREES........................ . . .
32
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNINGATTITUDES FOR ALLFARMERS
.
38
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR NON-INSURANCE
USERS......................................................................... .........
38
V III
IX
X
XI
X II
X III
XIV
XV
XVI
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE
U S E R S .........................................................................................................
39
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR ALL FARMERS.
41
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE
USERS................................ ...... .......................................... ...........................................
41
SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR NONINSURANCE USERS, . .
.
.......................................................................
42
Iv
L IS T OF TABLES
(c o n tin u e d )
Number
XV II
X V III
Page
' RANK ORDER AND STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE
METHODS OF PROTECTION . . . . . . . .
.....................................................
RANK ORDER AND STATISTICAL EVALUATION FOR HAZARDS FACED
BY FARMERS. .....................................................................................................'
XIX
44
46
BUDGET INFORMATION FOR FARMS IN THE SPRING WHEAT AREA FOR
THE FOUR FARM SIZES ............................................................................................ .52
XX BUDGET INFORMATION FOR FARMS IN THE SPRING WHEAT AREA FOR
THE FOUR FARM S I Z E S ...................................................................................................... 53
XXI HAIL LOSSES AND PAYMENTS BY FARM S IZ E FOR EACH AREA, YIELD
SERIES NUMBER I . . . . . .
CXXII
..........................................................
HAIL LOSSES AND PAYMENTS BY FARM SIZE FOR EACH AREA, YIELD
SERIES NUMBER 2 . -. ........................................... ...........................................'.
v
63
63
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Thg a u th o r i s i n d e b t e d t o t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l F in a n c e R e s e a r c h B ra n c h o f
t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e , U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e
f o r m ak in g p o s s i b l e t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t .
A s p e c i a l d e b t o f g r a t i t u d e i s due D r . D . C. M y ric k , Mr. Don B o b tw ic k ,
and Mr. LeRoy C. R u d e , A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is ts , Farm E c o n o m ic s R e s e a rc h
D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e , U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f
A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r t h e p e r s o n a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l e n c o u ra g e m e n t r e c e i v e d
th r o u g h o u t t h i s s t u d y .
T hanks a r e e x te n d e d t o P r o f e s s o r s R. J . Mc.Connen, E . H. U a r d , and
J . F . F i s c h e r f o r t h e i r c r i t i c a l r e v ie w th r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y . A p p re c i­
a t i o n i s a l s o e x te n d e d t o t h e o t h e r m em bers o f t h e e x a m in in g c o m m itte e ,
P r o f e s s o r s M. C. T a y lo r and C. ¥ . J e n s e n , and t o t h e s e c r e t a r i a l s t a f f
who e x h i b i t e d e x tre m e p a t i e n c e i n p u t t i n g t h i s m a t e r i a l i n f i n a l fo rm .
Any e r r o r s o r o m is s io n s i n t h i s s t u d y a r e t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e
a u th o r.
X
vi
ABSTRACT
T h is r e s e a r c h p ro b le m w as d e s ig n e d t o exam ine and e v a l u a t e f a r m e r s '
a t t i t u d e s to w a rd c r o p i n s u r a n c e and t o t e s t t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p
i n s u r a n c e and t o t e s t t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f
a l l e v i a t i n g t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y e n c o u n te r e d i n
d r y l a n d g r a i n f a r m in g .
C rop i n s u r a n c e w as d e f i n e d a s any i n s u r a n c e
a v a i l a b l e f o r c r o p p r o t e c t i o n ; i n M ontana t h i s i n c l u d e s a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e .
The h y p o th e s e s w e r e :
I ) t h a t t h e u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i s m ore
im p o r ta n t i n t h e s h o r t - r u n t h a n i n t h e l o n g - r u n an d ; 2 ) t h a t t h e f a r m e r 's
u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i s i n f l u e n c e d by h i s a t t i t u d e to w a rd and
e v a l u a t i o n o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r m e th o d s o f incom e
p ro te c tio n .
The t e s t s w e re c o n d u c te d w i t h e m p h a s is g i v e n t o t h e
b e g in n i n g y e a r s f o r t h e f a r m e r .
To t e s t t h i s h y p o t h e s i s and t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e t h e
f a r m e r s a t t i t u d e to w a rd p l a n n i n g h i s f a r m in g o p e r a t i o n , h i s a t t i t u d e
to w a rd c r o p i n s u r a n c e , h i s e v a l u a t i o n o f h a z a r d s f a c e d , and h i s e v a lu ­
a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s o f p r o t e c t i n g h i s fa rm incom e w e re
d e te r m i n e d .
T h e se t e s t s - w e r e c o n d u c te d t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f : l ) t h e
G uttm an s c a lo g r a m t e c h n i q u e f o r m e a s u r in g a t t i t u d e s , and 2) t h e p a i r e d
c o m p a r is o n s t e c h n i q u e f o r d e te r m i n in g r a n k o r d e r and f i n d i n g t h e s c a l e
s e p a r a t i o n b e tw e e n h a z a r d s and a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s o f incom e p r o t e c t i o n .
The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s w e re t h e n co m p ared t o t h e r e s u l t s o f b u d g e t
a n a l y s i s t o d e te r m in e t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e .
T h is was done f o r
two a r e a s ; t h e T r i a n g l e w i n t e r w h e a t and t h e N o r t h e a s t s p r i n g w h e a t.
, F o u r y i e l d s e r i e s c o m p ile d fro m s t a t e l e a s e d a t a w e re u s e d . Two s e r i e s
fro m e a c h a r e a w e re u s e d w h ic h w e re I ? t o 20 y e a r s i n l e n g t h and i n e a c h
c a s e t h e a v e r a g e y i e l d o f t h e s e r i e s a p p ro x im a te d t h a t o f i t s r e s p e c t i v e
a re a .
To d e te r m in e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i t w as n e c e s s a r y
to c o n s id e r , i n a d d itio n to c a sh e x p e n se s, th e c o s t o f m a in ta in in g th e
f a r m h o u s e h o ld . W ith t h e s e e x p e n s e s i t w as p o s s i b l e t o d e te r m in e t h e
e f f e c t on f a r m incom e o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y b o t h i n t h e s h o r t and l o n g ru n .
T h is w as do n e f o r t h e fa rm u s in g and n o t u s in g i n s u r a n c e .
I t w as fo u n d i n t h e s tu d y t h a t f a r m e r s h a v e a n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e
to w a rd t h e u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e .
T h is w as c o u p le d w i t h a l o w .p l a c i n g
o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s o f r e d u c i n g th e
e f f e c t s o f low y i e l d s '.
I n a d d itio n th e b u d g et a n a ly s is re v e a le d th a t
t h i s a p p r a i s a l b y f a r m e r s may b e a c c u r a t e w i t h r e s p e c t t o p o l i c i e s
p re s e n tly a v a ila b le .
vii
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
R is k and u n c e r t a i n t y i n G r e a t P l a i n s a g r i c u l t u r e a r is f e s fro m c l i m a t i c
f a c to rs , in s e c ts , d is e a s e ,
and f l u c t u a t i o n s i n p r i c e s p a i d and p r i c e s
r e c e i v e d . . One way t o a l l e v i a t e t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f r i s k
and u n c e r t a i n t y
i s to use c ro p in s u r a n c e .
THE PROBLEM SITUATION
The u n c e r t a i n s i t u a t i o n f a c e d b y G r e a t P l a i n s f a r m e r s h a s l e d t o t h e
u s e o f i n s u r a n c e a s a m a n a g e r i a l t o o l t o r e d u c e v a r i a b i l i t y i n fa rm
in co m e .
A g r i c u l t u r e on t h e G r e a t P l a i n s
The G r e a t P l a i n s f a r m e r h a s a lw a y s b e e n f a c e d w i t h f e a t u r e s w h ich
make f a r m in g d i f f i c u l t .
Among t h e s e a r e g r e a t e x p a n s e s o f f l a t and
t r e e l e s s l a n d and a v a r i a b l e s e m i a r i d c l i m a t e . \ f
O nly t h e c l i m a t e h a s
b e e n a c o n t i n u i n g p r o b le m , a lth o u g h t h e g r e a t e x p a n s e s o f l e v e l la n d
c e r t a i n l y c o n t r i b u t e i n a c a u s a l way t o t h e c l i m a t e and t o t h e dam aging
e f f e c t s o f some o f t h e c l i m a t i c phenom ena.
T h ese i n c l u d e b l i z z a r d s and
c h in o o k w in d s i n w i n t e r and h a i l s t o r m s and h o t w in d s i n sum m er.
l/
A c c o rd in g t o Heb t h e f l a t , t r e e l e s s l a n d o f f e r s no o b s t r u c t i o n s f o r a i r
m ovem ent.
T h is r e s u l t s i n c o n s t a n t m ovem ent o f a i r w h ic h r e s u l t s i n
f r e q u e n t w in d s o f h ig h v e l o c i t y . F a rm e rs w ere u n f a m i l i a r w i t h t h i s .
S ee H a l t e r P r e s c o t t H e b b , The G r e a t P l a i n s . G inn and Company, New Y o rk ,
1 9 3 1 , p p . 3 and 6 .
-
2 -
A v e ra g e p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n a s e m i a r i d a r e a i s g e n e r a l l y m a r g i n a l f o r
c ro p p ro d u c tio n .
E v en m o d e ra te v a r i a t i o n s b e lo w t h e a v e r a g e r e d u c e y i e l d s
s h a r p l y , and v a r i a t i o n s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n n e e d n o t b e l a r g e t o b r i n g
c o m p le te c r o p f a i l u r e .
On t h e o t h e r hand m o d est v a r i a t i o n s ab o v e t h e m ean
i n c r e a s e y i e l d s s i g n i f i c a n t l y and t h e m ore e x tr e m e ly f a v o r a b l e w e a th e r
■
p a t t e r n s t h a t h a v e b e e n e x p e r i e n c e d h a v e d e m o n s tr a te d t h e p h y s i c a l
c a p a c i t y o f t h e P l a i n s t o p ro d u c e y i e l d s a s h ig h a s any o t h e r a r e a .
A l l o f t h e s e c a u s e c o n s i d e r a b l e dam age e a c h y e a r t o g ro w in g c r o p s
and t o t h e f a r m e r t h e i r o c c u r r e n c e i s u n c e r t a i n .
T h e re w i l l b e y e a r s
when r a i n f a l l i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o p r o d u c e a, c r o p a d e q u a te t o c o v e r
o p e ra tin g e x p e n se s.
M o n tan a A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s show t h a t t h e s e
e v e n ts do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y come one a t a tim e b u t may i n d e e d l a s t s e v e r a l
y e a rs.
F o r ex am p le fro m 1933 t o 1938 p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e N o r t h e a s t S p r in g
w h e a t c o u n t i e s r a n g e d fro m 1 .5 t o 10 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e , a v e r a g in g 4 .9 5 .
b u s h e l s p e r a c r e . 2/
H ot d r y w in d s a r e n o t l i m i t e d t o p e r i o d s o f d r o u t h ,
b u t h a v e much t h e same end r e s u l t .
H a i l s t o r m s , b l i z z a r d s , and c h in o o k s , when t h e y o c c u r , do l e s s g e n e r a l
dam age t o c r o p s d u r i n g t h e y e a r , b u t may d e s t r o y a c r o p f o r an i n d i v i d u a l
farm er.
B l i z z a r d s and c h in o o k w in d s do t h i s b y w i n t e r k i l l i n g o r f r e e z i n g
t h e c r o p and h a i l s t o r m s b y k n o c k in g i t down and t h r e s h i n g i t d u r in g t h e
l a t e s t a g e s o f d e v e lo p m e n t.
2/
M ontana. A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . Volume V, M ontana D e p a rtm e n t o f
A g r i c u l t u r e , C o o p e r a tin g w i t h t h e U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f
A g r i c u l t u r e , A g r i c u l t u r a l M a rk e tin g S e r v i c e , H e le n a , M o n tan a, D e c e m b e r,
1954, pp. 57-100.
i .
- 3 Im p ro v e m e n ts h a v e b e e n made i n c u l t i v a t i o n m e th o d s , v a r i e t i e s o f
s e e d , and m anagem ent t e c h n i q u e s , a l l o f w h ic h t e n d t o l e s s e n t h e e f f e c t
o f d ro u th , i n s e c t s , r u s t ,
and o t h e r d i s e a s e s .
E ven w i t h t h e s e im p ro v e ­
m e n ts t h e r e i s no p h y s i c a l m ethod f o r p r o t e c t i n g a g a i n s t t h e p a r c h i n g
h o t w in d s and h a i l s t o r m s w h ic h d e s t r o y p o t e n t i a l l y good c r o p s .
For th is
r e a s o n f a r m e r s h a v e t u r n e d t o i n s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f c o m b h tin g t h e s e
u n c e r t a i n t i e s and s t a b i l i z i n g t h e i r fa rm in c o m e s .
R is k and U n c e r t a i n t y D e f in e d '
Many d e f i n i t i o n s h a v e b e e n g i v e n f o r u n c e r t a i n t y and t h e a s s o c i a t e d
r i s k , how ever f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s p a p e r t h e d e f i n i t i o n s g iv e n by
F r a n k K n ig h t w i l l b e u s e d .
K n ig h t s t a t e s " r i s k i s a m e a s u r a b le u n c e r t a i n t y ,
and u n c e r t a i n t y i s an u n m e a s u ra b le u n c e r t a i n t y .
The p r a c t i c a l d i f f e r e n c e
b e tw e e n t h e two i s t h a t i n r i s k t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e outcom e i n a g ro u p
o f i n s t a n c e s i s known ( e i t h e r th r o u g h c a l c u l a t i o n s a p r i o r i o r fro m
s t a t i s t i c s o f p a s t e x p e rie n c e ).
In u n c e rta in ty i t i s ,
in g e n e ra l,
i m p o s s ib l e t o fo rm a g ro u p o f i n s t a n c e s , b e c a u s e t h e s i t u a t i o n i s i n a
h ig h d e g re e u n iq u e .
I f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b l e o u tco m es i n
a g r o u p o f i n s t a n c e s i s know n, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o g e t r i d
u n c e r t a i n t y b y t h e e x p e d ie n t g r o u p in g o f i n s t a n c e s .
o f any r e a l
T hat i t
i s p o s s ib le
d o e s n o t m ean t h a t t h i s w i l l b e done and f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l t h e r e i s no
d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n a m e a s u r a b le u n c e r t a i n t y and an u n m e a s u ra b le
u n c e r t a i n t y . 11 3 /
3/
F r a n k H. K n i g h t , R i s k . U n c e r t a i n t y , and P r o f i t . H o u g h to n M i f f l i n
Company, New Y o rk , 1 9 2 1 , p p . 2 2 3 -2 3 4 .
-L r U s in g K n i g h t 's d e f i n i t i o n we c a n s a y t h a t f a c t o r s s u c h a s c li m a t e
and p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s a r e u n m e a s u ra b le u n c e r t a i n t i e s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l
farm er.
H ow ever, t h e incom e e f f e c t s o f m o st c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s ' su c h a s h a i l ,
d r o u t h , and w in d a r e u n c e r t a i n t i e s w h ic h may b e s h i f t e d t o a n i n s u r a n c e
com pany w h ic h c a n g ro u p t h e i n s t a n c e s and becom e t h e r i s k t a k e r .
To t h e
e x te n t t h a t a fa rm e r s h i f t s th e u n c e r ta in ty th ro u g h th e u se o f in su ra n c e
t h e im p a c t o f t h e e v e n t may b e l e s s e n e d .
U n le s s t h e f a r m e r t a k e s
in s u ra n c e e v e ry y e a r f o r th e s e c o n tin g e n c ie s th e y a re s t i l l u n c e rta in to
th e fa rm e r.
E ven i f t h e f a r m e r c a r r i e s i n s u r a n c e e v e r y y e a r an e le m e n t
o f incom e u n c e r t a i n t y r e m a in s i n t h e fo rm o f p r i c e and y i e l d u n c e r t a i n t y
w h ic h c a n n o t b e f u l l y i n s u r e d ;
Use o f I n s u r a n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r e
The f i r s t a tt e m p t t o i n s u r e g ro w in g c r o p s was a g a i n s t h a i l on
C o n n e c t ic u t to b a c c o i n 1 8 80.
By 1920 h a i l i n s u r a n c e s o ld b y m u tu a ls ,
s t o c k c o m p a n ie s and s t a t e h a i l d e p a r tm e n ts w as a d o p te d b y G r e a t P l a i n s
f a r m e r s .' L /
The f i r s t
a tt e m p t t o i n s u r e c r o p s f o r o t h e r t h a n h a i l came
i n t h e fo rm o f a g e n e r a l c r o p i n s u r a n c e i n 1 8 9 9 , f o llo w e d a g a in i n 1917,
1 9 1 9 , 1 9 3 1 , and 1 9 37.
fa ile d . 5 /
A l l o f t h e s e w e re b y p r i v a t e c o m p a n ie s and a l l
I n 1938 C o n g re s s p a s s e d t h e F e d e r a l C rop I n s u r a n c e A ct w h ic h
4/
Jo h n C. E l l i c k s p n , H a i l I n s u r a n c e on G row ing C r o p s . U n ite d S t a t e s
D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , I n f o r m a t i o n B u l l e t i n 56 , p r o c e s s e d J u n e ,
1951 , p p . 10 - 1 1 .
'5 /
W illia m G. M u rra y , A g r i c u l t u r a l F i n a n c e . Iow a S t a t e C o lle g e P r e s s ,
Ames, Io w a , 1 9 5 3 , p . 16 1 .
- 5 now p r o v i d e s a l l - r i s k
i n s u r a n c e f o r s u c h c r o p s , a s w h e a t, c o t t o n , f l a x ,
c o r n , to b a c c o , b e a n s , c i t r u s , and c o m b in a tio n s o f c r o p s .
Many p e o p le who c h o s e f a r m in g a s an o c c u p a t io n w i l l h a v e a s t h e i r
f i r s t g o a l s u r v i v a l o f t h e fa rm f i r m and t h e fa rm h o u s e h o ld .
T h is may b e
a c c o m p lis h e d b y m a i n t a i n i n g a f a v o r a b l e n e t w o r th p o s i t i o n and i n c r e a s i n g
h i s n e t w o r th o v e r tim e u n t i l h i s s u r v i v a l g o a l i s
a ssu re d .
T h is m eans
t h e f a r m e r n e e d s " t o m anage p r o d u c t i o n , i n v e n t o r i e s , c a s h r e s e r v e s , and
a c c e s s t o o u t s i d e f u n d s ( th r o u g h i n s u r a n c e and c r e d i t )
so a s t o m in im iz e
th e p r o b a b i l it y o f a r i s k l o s s la r g e enough to re n d e r th e fa rm e r in ­
s o lv e n t" . £ /
The i n s o l v e n t p o s i t i o n i s d e f i n e d t o b e w h e re c a s h r e c e i p t s
f a l l s h o r t o f m e e tin g n e c e s s a r y p r o d u c t i o n and f a m i ly l i v i n g e x p e n s e s a s
w e l l a s d e b t and t a x p a y m e n ts .
In th e G reat P la in s r e g io n t h i s s u r v iv a l
g o a l i s n o t a lw a y s e a s i l y a t t a i n e d b e c a u s e o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s p r e v i o u s l y
m e n tio n e d and b y t h e p r e c a r i o u s c a p i t a l p o s i t i o n o f b e g in n i n g f a r m e r s .
s e c o n d g o a l o f many f a r m e r s w i l l be' c a p i t a l - a c c u m u l a t i o n .
The
They w i l l
t r y t o a t t a i n t h i s a f t e r t h e s u r v i v a l g o a l has. b e e n r e a c h e d .
The s u r v i v a l
g o a l o f t h e f a r m e r may b e c o n s id e r e d t o b e t h e s h o r t - r u n g o a l and c a p i t a l
a c c u m u la tio n t h e l o n g - r u n g o a l .
W ith t h e a d v e n t o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e t h e f a r m e r was f a c e d w i t h th e
d e c i s i o n o f w h e th e r o r n o t t o p r o t e c t h i s incom e w i t h i n s u r a n c e .
He may
make t h i s d e c i s i o n - e a c h y e a r o r he may make t h e d e c i s i o n o n c e .
Is/
R a i n e r S c h l c k e l e , " F a r m e r 's A d a p t a ti o n s t o Incom e U n c e r t a i n t y " , J o u r n a l
o f Farm E c o n o m ic s . V o l. XXXII, No. 3 , A u g u s t, 1 9 50, p . ' 3 6 3 .
■ 6 T h e re a r e many r e a s o n s why f a r m e r s f a c e d w i t h u n c e r t a i n t i e s c h o o s e
to use o r n o t to u se in s u ra n c e .
Among t h e s e a r e a t t i t u d e s to w a rd
i n s u r a n c e w h ic h may b e a f f e c t e d b y s u c h f a c t o r s a s a g e , e x p e r i e n c e , t h e
s i z e o f u n i t , n e t w o r th p o s i t i o n o r c o s t o f i n s u r a n c e .
A f a r m e r may p l a y
h u n c h e s and b u y a l l - r i s k o r c r o p ^ h a i l i n s u r a n c e o n ly o n c e i n a w h i l e , s a y
one o u t o f f o u r y e a r s , t h i n k i n g he c a n i n t h i s m anner make i n s u r a n c e p a y
o f f f o r him , w h ic h i t may a c t u a l l y d o .
I n t h i s c a s e he may b e c a l c u l a t i n g
a p r i o r i t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f an e v e n t s u c h a s a h a i l s to r m o c c u r r i n g .
T h is
t y p e o f c a l c u l a t i o n w o u ld b e a s u b j e c t i v e ju d g m e n t on t h e p a r t o f th e
farm ers.
Some f a r m e r s may n o t u s e i n s u r a n c e b e c a u s e t h e y c o n s i d e r th e
im p a c t o f t h e r i s k t o b e so s l i g h t a s n o t t o w a r r a n t i t s
use.
T h e re may
a l s o b e i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e a s o n s why f a r m e r s c h o o s e t o u s e o r n o t u s e
in s u ra n c e .
T h ese may ste m fro m p a s t e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e i n s u r a n c e compa,- ■n
n i e s , f o r e x a m p le , u n s a t i s f a c t o r y a d ju s tm e n t o f l o s s e s .
I n s u r a n c e P o l i c i e s P r e s e n t l y A v a i la b l e
I n M o n ta n a , F e d e r a l C rop I n s u r a n c e i s o f f e r e d f o r w h e a t i n 19 c o u n t i e s
and f o r b a r l e y i n s i x .
As w r i t t e n i n 1939 and r e v i s e d i n 1946 t h e F e d e r a l
C rop I n s u r a n c e A ct s t a t e s t h a t t h e am ount o f t h e c o v e r a g e o f f e r e d p e r
a c r e m ust b e a n am ount lo w e r t h a n t h e p e r a c r e c o s t o f p r o d u c in g t h e c r o p
i n t h e a r e a and i n no c a s e s h a l l i t
e x c e e d 75 p e r c e n t o f t h e a v e ra g e y i e l d .
As t h i s i s an a l l - r i s k ty p e p o l i c y t h e in d e m n ity may b e c o l l e c t e d i f
dam age t o t h e c r o p i s fro m any n a t u r a l c a u s e and i f t h e dam age b r i n g s t h e
a v e r a g e y i e l d f o r t h e fa rm b e lo w t h e y i e l d o f c o v e r a g e .
T h is l e v e l o f
c o v e r a g e v a r i e s b e tw e e n a r e a s and b e tw e e n c o u n t i e s d e p e n d in g upon t h e
-
r i s k o f th e a re a .
7 -
I n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t c o u n t i e s t h e c o v e ra g e v a r i e s fro m
4 t o 9 b u s h e l s , f o r t h e w i n t e r w h e a t c o u n t i e s i t v a r i e s fro m 4 t o 12 . 6 .
The lo w e r c o v e r a g e s a r e u s u a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f i e l d s w h e re c o n tin u o u s
c r o p p in g i s p r a c t i c e d .
The prem ium r a t e s c h a r g e d v a r y a c c o r d in g t o t h e c o v e r a g e and r i s k
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a r e a fro m .8 5 b u s h e l s t o 1 .1 5 b u s h e l s i n t h e s p r i n g
w h e a t a r e a and fro m .5 9 b u s h e l s t o 1 .5 0 b u s h e l s i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
R e d u c tio n s i n prem ium s a r e a v a i l a b l e t o t h e f a r m e r who i n s u r e s 200
a c re s o r o v e r.
The r e d u c t i o n t o him i s 4 p e r c e n t i f h i s i n s u r e d a c re a g e
i s o v e r 200 a c r e s and 2 p e r c e n t f o r e a c h a d d i t i o n a l 100 a c r e s .
In
a d d itio n r e d u c tio n s a re a v a ila b le to e v e ry fa rm e r; f o r e a ch n o - lo s s -y e a r
he w i l l r e c e i v e a r e d u c t i o n o f 5 p e r c e n t up t o a maximum o f 50 p e r c e n t .
I f t h e f a r m e r h a s f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e n o - l o s s y e a r s and h a s a l o s s t h e s i x t h
y e a r h i s prem ium w i l l t h e n go b a c k t o a 15 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n .
th a t i f
T h is m eans
a f a r m e r c a r r i e s i t e v e r y y e a r and c a n go f o u r y e a r s w i t h o u t a
l o s s h i s prem ium w i l l b e r e d u c e d a t l e a s t 15 p e r c e n t r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e
l o s s e s e x p e rie n c e d a f t e r t h a t .
H a i l i n s u r a n c e i s l e s s c o m p lic a te d t h a n F e d e r a l C rop I n s u r a n c e .
I t o p e r a t e s t h e same a s f i r e
i n s u r a n c e , a u to m o b ile i n s u r a n c e , o r any
i n s u r a n c e w h e re t h e in d e m n ity i s p a i d on t h e p e r c e n t o f dam age.
T h e re a r e a b o u t 43 s t o c k h a i l i n s u r a n c e c o m p a n ie s o p e r a t i n g i n
M ontana a lo n g w i t h t h e S t a t e H a i l B o a rd i n s u r a n c e .
a l l o f f e r i d e n t i c a l c o v e r a g e s and r a t e s .
The p r i v a t e c o m p a n ie s
The c o v e ra g e o f f e r e d f o r h a i l
i n s u r a n c e b y t h e s e c o m p a n ie s i s t h e am ount o f c o v e ra g e t h e f a r m e r f e e l s
—8 —
he n e e d s , t h e c o v e r a g e c a n n o t e x c e e d t h e e x p e c te d v a lu e o f t h e c r o p .
The
S t a t e H a i l B o a rd l i m i t s c o v e ra g e t o $12 an a c r e .
The R e s e a r c h P ro b le m
The p u r p o s e o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o d e te r m in e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s
to w a rd and e v a l u a t i o n o f a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o
a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s o f p r o t e c t i n g fa rm in c o m e s .
t h e h a z a r d s f a c e d w i l l a l s o b e d e te r m i n e d .
a ll-ris k
F a rm e rs a p p r a i s a l o f
A t e s t o f th e adequacy o f
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f r e d u c i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f
y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y on t h e flo w o f fa rm in co m e s w i l l b e c o n d u c te d i n an
e f f o r t t o r e l a t e t h i s t o f a r m e r s a t t i t u d e s and e v a l u a t i o n s .
OBJECTIVES
The g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s s tu d y w i l l b e t o a p p r a i s e c r o p i n s u r a n c e
fro m t h e v ie w p o in t o f b o t h t h e f a r m e r s and t h e i n s u r a n c e c o m p a n ie s and
make s u g g e s t i o n s f o r i t s
im p ro v em en t a s a t o o l i n t h e m anagem ent o f f a r m s .
S p e c ific o b je c tiv e s a re :
1.
t o d e te r m in e t h e f a r m e r 's e v a l u a t i o n o f i n s u r a n c e a s a
m a n a g e r i a l t o o l i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r m eans o f c o m b a tin g r i s k
and u n c e r t a i n t y .
2.
t o d e te r m i n e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd a l l - r i s k an d c r o p - h a i l
i n s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm in co m e.
3.
to t e s t th e adequacy o f p r e s e n t in s u ra n c e to h e lp fa rm e rs
s u r v i v e u n f a v o r a b le w e a th e r c o n d i t i o n s t h r o u g h b u d g e t a n a l y s i s .
_ 9 -
HYPOTHESIS
I t i s m ore i m p o r ta n t f o r M ontana f a r m e r s w i t h a low n e t w o r th t h a n a
h i g h n e t w o r th t o u s e a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l , i n s u r a n c e f o r s t a b i l i z i n g
fa r m incom e and a t t a i n i n g t h e g o a l o f s u r v i v a l .
S p e c i f i c h y p o th e s e s a r e s
1.
%
t h e f a r m e r who u s e s a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e i s l e s s
l i k e l y t o e x p e r i e n c e y e a r s w hen f a r m incom e i s n o t l a r g e enough
t o c o v e r f a r m in g e x p e n s e s t h a n t h e f a r m e r who d o e s n o t .
2.
th e f a r m e r ’ s use o f a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e i s
i n f l u e n c e d b y b o t h h i s a t t i t u d e to w a rd and h i s e v a l u a t i o n o f
it
a s a m a n a g e r i a l t o o l w i t h r e s p e c t t o a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s
o f p ro te c tio n .
PIAN OF FOLLOWING CHAPTERS
The a n a l y t i c a l m e th o d s w i l l b e d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p te r I I .
An u n d e r­
s t a n d i n g o f t h e m e th o d s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r c o m p re h e n s io n o f t h e a n a l y s i s
w h ic h f o llo w s , i n t h e r e m a in in g c h a p t e r s .
The m eth o d s a re '; I ) G uttm an
s c a l e , 2 ) C o n tin g e n c y t a b l e s , 3) P a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s , and 4 ) B u d g e ts .
The f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd p l a n n i n g and i n s u r a n c e w i l l b e
d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p te r I I I .
T h is i n c l u d e s t e s t i n g a t t i t u d e s f o r a s s o c i ­
a tio n w ith o th e r f a c t o r s .
I n C h a p te r IV t h e f a r m e r s e v a l u a t i o n s o f c ro p i n s u r a n c e a s a mana­
g e r i a l t o o l f o r s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm incom e w i l l b e e x a m in ed .
-
10
-
C h a p te r V w i l l b e d e v o te d t o b u d g e t a n a l y s i s o f c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n
i n o r d e r t o d e te r m in e t h e s u i t a b i l i t y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e a s a m a n a g e r ia l
to o l.
C h a p te r V I w i l l b e d e v o te d t o i m p l i c a t i o n s and f u t u r e r e s e a r c h .
C h a p te r V I I w i l l b e d e v o te d t o a summary o f t h e s tu d y .
CHAPTER I I
METHODOLOGY USED' IN STUDY
The S tu d y A re a
Two o f t h e m a jo r w h e a t p r o d u c in g r e g i o n s o f M o n tan a, t h e N o r t h e a s t
s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a and t h e T r i a n g l e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a w e re s t u d i e d .
,
V a lle y ,
D a n i e l s , S h e r id a n , R o o s e v e l t , R i c h la n d , and McCone c o u n t i e s r e p r e s e n t e d t h e
N o r t h e a s t w h ile T o o le , L i b e r t y , H i l l , C h o u te a u , F e r g u s , J u d i t h B a s i n , T eto n ,
and P o n d e r a c o u n t i e s r e p r e s e n t e d t h e T r i a n g l e .
T h ese a r e shown i n
F ig u re I .
S am ple c o m m u n itie s w e re ra n d o m ly d raw n fro m a l l o f t h e s e c o u n t i e s ,
e a c h d e s ig n e d t o c o n t a i n a t l e a s t 15 f a r m s , 10 o f w h ic h w e re t o b e
c o n ta c te d .
Farm s w ere, e l i m i n a t e d w h ic h d i d n o t h av e a s t h e i r m a jo r e n t e r ­
p r i s e s m a ll g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n .
The i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d r e p r e s e n t e d 24
c o m m u n itie s and i n c l u d e d 251 f a r m e r s .
P r o c e d u r e o f A n a ly s is .
F o u r a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s a r e u s e d i n t h i s s tu d y ;
a n a l y s i s , t o d e te r m in e t h e f a r m e r s '
l)
s c a lo g ra m
a t t i t u d e to w a rd c r o p i n s u r a n c e and
to w a rd p l a n n i n g i n g e n e r a l , 2 ) p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s , t o d e te r m in e t h e
f a r m e r s ' e v a l u a t i o n s o f c r o p and c r o p ^ h a i l i n s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o
a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s o f s t a b i l i z i n g fa r m in c o m e , 3) c o n ti n g e n c y t a b l e s ,
to e v a lu a te th e fa rm e rs '
a t t i t u d e s to w a rd i n s u r a n c e and p l a n n i n g , and
4 ) b u d g e t s t u d i e s , t o d e te r m in e t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i n
h e lp in g fa rm e rs a t t a i n t h e i r g o a ls .
E a c h o f t h e s e w i l l b e e x p la in e d
Toole
Cv
Valley / D aniels ^iShi
Pondera
T et on
Ro o s e v e l t
Chouteau
McCone JRichIond
Ju d itm -L
o $ in
F ig u re I .
Map o f C o u n tie s i n S tu d y A re a .
Fergus
13 i n t h i s c h a p t e r i n o r d e r t h a t t h e r e a d e r w i l l h av e an e le m e n ta r y u n d e r­
s t a n d i n g o f t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n t o t h i s s tu d y .
The f a r m s i z e s a r e :
1 ) s m a ll f a r m s r a n g i n g fro m 95 t o 580 c ro p a c r e s ,
a v e r a g in g 384 c r o p a c r e s , 2 ) medium f a r m s r a n g i n g fro m 600 t o 1,095 c r o p
a c re s,
a v e r a g in g 830 c r o p a c r e s , 3) medium l a r g e f a rm s r a n g i n g fro m 1 ,1 0 0
t o 1,3 6 0 c r o p a c r e s , a v e r a g in g 1 ,2 0 0 c r o p a c r e s , and 4 ) l a r g e fa rm s r a n g i n g
fro m 1 ,4 0 0 t o 2 ,4 0 0 c r o p a c r e s , a v e r a g in g I ,7 0 0 c r o p a c r e s .
I t w i l l b e assum ed t h r o u g h o u t t h e s tu d y t h a t t h e p r i c e s p a i d and p r i c e s
r e c e i v e d b y f a r m e r s a r e t h o s e p a i d and r e c e i v e d i n 1959.
The c o s t i n f o r ­
m a tio n u s e d i n t h e b u d g e ts a r e fro m a s tu d y c u r r e n t l y b e in g c o n d u c te d by
t h e Farm E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n , i /
C rop i n s u r a n c e w i l l b e d e f i n e d a s i n s u r a n c e f o r in co m e p r o t e c t i o n and
w i l l i n c l u d e b o t h c r o p - h a i l and a l l - r i s k c r o p i n s u r a n c e .
The prem ium
r a t e s and p o l i c i e s o f t h e i n s u r a n c e c o m p a n ie s a r e t h o s e a v a i l a b l e t o
f a r m e r s i n 1959.
ATTITUDE SCALES
An a t t i t u d e may b e d e f i n e d a s " th e , d e g r e e o f p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e
a f f e c t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h some p s y c h o l o g i c a l o b j e c t " , 2 /
T h is p s y c h o l o g i c a l
l/
S tu d y i n p r o g r e s s , S u p p ly R e sp o n se t o W heat on D r y la n d C rop Farm s i n
M o n ta n a , c o n d u c te d b y LeRoy C. R u d e, A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t, Farm
E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a rc h S e r v i c e , U n ite d
S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e .
2/
A. L. E d w a rd s , T e c h n iq u e s o f A t t i t u d e S c a le C o n s t r u c t i o n , A p p le to n C e n t u r y - Cr o f t , I n c . , New Y o rk , 1957,! p . 2.
- U o b j e c t may b e a sy m b o l, p h r a s e , s l o g a n , p e r s o n , i n s t i t u t i o n , i d e a l o r i d e a
to w a rd w h ic h p e o p le may d i f f e r w i t h r e s p e c t t o p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e
" a ffe c t" .
I n t h i s s tu d y t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l o b j e c t s w e re c r o p i n s u r a n c e and
p la n n in g .
The i n d i v i d u a l s '
a t t i t u d e to w a rd an o b j e c t i s d e te r m in e d th r o u g h h i s
p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o e a c h o f a s e r i e s . o f a p p r o p r i a t e s ta t e m e n ts .
I n o r d e r f o r t h e s e s t a t e m e n t s t o b e e f f e c t i v e i t i s n e c e s s a r y t h a t a few ' ■
b a s i c r e q u i r e m e n t s b e m e t; 1 ) s t a t e m e n t s w h ic h r e f e r t o t h e p a s t r a t h e r t h a n
t h e p r e s e n t s h o u ld b e a v o id e d , 2 ) f a c t u a l s t a t e m e n t s s h o u ld b e a v o id e d , 3 )
u s e s t a t e m e n t s w h ic h r e f e r t o t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l o b j e c t , 4 ) s e l e c t s t a t e ­
m e n ts t h a t a r e b e l i e v e d t o c o v e r t h e e n t i r e r a n g e o f t h e e f f e c t i v e s c a l e
o f i n t e r e s t , 5 ) a v o id s t a t e m e n t s t h a t a r e l i k e l y t o b e a g r e e d o r d i s a g r e e d
w i t h b y a lm o s t e v e r y o n e , 6 ) k e e p t h e la n g u a g e o f th e ' s t a t e m e n t s s im p le ,
c l e a r , and d i r e c t , ? ) e a c h s ta t e m e n t s h o u ld c o n t a i n o n ly one c o m p le te
t h o u g h t , and 8 ) a v o id am biguous s t a t e m e n t s , and w o rd s t h a t may n o t b e u n d e r ­
s to o d b y e v e r y o n e . 3 /
I f t h e s e c r i t e r i a a r e m et t h e s t a t e m e n t s s h o u ld h a v e
t h e same m ea n in g t o a l l r e s p o n d e n t s , w l t h i a common fra m e o f r e f e r e n c e t o
th e o b je c t.
T h e re a r e s e v e r a l m e th o d s o f u s in g t h e s e s ta t e m e n ts t o o b t a i n t h e
a t t i t u d e o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t , and fro m among them t h e m eth o d c a l l e d th e
S c a lo g r a m
3/
w as c h o s e n f o r t h i s s tu d y .
I b i d . , p p . 1 3 -1 4 .
T h is m e th o d , d e v e lo p e d b y L. A.
- 15 G uttm an i n t h e 1 9 4 0 's and i n 1.950, i s commonly c a l l e d t h e G uttm an s c a l e and
■will b e r e f e r r e d t o a s s u c h th r o u g h o u t t h e s tu d y . 4 /
In o rd er fo r a s e t o f
s t a t e m e n t s w i t h a common c o n t e n t t o c o n s t i t u t e a G uttm an s c a l e t h e
i n d i v i d u a l w i t h a h i g h e r s c o r e t h a n a n o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l m u st r a n k a s h ig h
o r h i g h e r on e v e r y s t a t e m e n t i n t h e s e t .
I f t h i s h a p p e n s t h e s ta t e m e n ts
a r e s a i d t o c o n s t i t u t e an u n i d im e n s i o n a l s c a l e .
I n t h e u n id im e n s io n a l
s c a l e t h e s t a t e m e n t s e s t a b l i s h a c o n tin u u m r a n g i n g fro m l e a s t t o m ost
f a v o r a b le w ith r e s p e c t to th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l s ta te m e n t (in s u ra n c e i n t h i s
c a se ).
I n g e n e r a l t h e c o n tin u u m w o u ld m ean t h a t e v e r y p e r s o n who had a
s c a l e s c o r e o f t h r e e a g r e e d t o t h e same t h r e e s t a t e m e n t s , t h o s e who had
a s c o r e o f f o u r a g r e e d t o t h e same t h r e e a s t h o s e w i t h a s c o r e o f t h r e e
p l u s one m ore s t a t e m e n t , and t h o s e who h ad a s c o r e o f f i v e a g re e d w i t h
t h o s e who h ad a s c o r e o f f o u r p l u s one m ore s ta t e m e n t and so o n .
I t is
t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e G uttm an s c a l e t o t e l l u s w h at t h e s c a l e s c o r e i s f o r
each in d iv id u a l.
I f t h e num ber o f s t a t e m e n t s i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a ll and t h e r e a r e o n ly
a few r e s p o n d e n t s t h e s c a l i n g Jaay b e do n e m a n u a lly .
I f t h e num ber o f
r e s p o n d e n t s i s l a r g e t h i s w i l l b e m ore r e a d i l y done b y t h e u s e o f a
s o r t e r and a r e p r o d u c in g p u n c h a f t e r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n o r a n s w e rs t o t h e
s t a t e m e n t s h a v e b e e n p u n c h e d on c a r d s .
The l a t t e r m eth o d w as u se d i n t h i s
s tu d y a s t h e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n t s was 2 5 1 .
L/
I b i d . . p . 172.
— 16 —
One m eth o d f o r s c a l i n g t h e s t a t e m e n t s b y t h e m a c h in e m ethod was
d e v e lo p e d b y C a r o l L . S to n e
w e i g h ti n g t h e ' s t a t e m e n t s .
u s in g R o b e r t H. F o r d 's p r o c e d u r e o f
The m eth o d em ployed by b o t h R o b e r t F o rd and
C a r o l S to n e i s t h a t t h e w e ig h ts w i l l i n c r e a s e i n m o d if ie d g e o m e tric
p ro g re s s io n .
E a c h g e o m e tr ic s c o r e may b e a t t a i n e d i n o n ly one way.
In
an e i g h t - s t a t e m e n t s c a l e a r e s p o n d e n t w i t h a p e r f e c t n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o
ml 1 e i g h t s t a t e m e n t s w ould h a v e a g e o m e tr ic s c o r e o f 0 .
on l y way t h i s g e o m e tr ic s c o r e c o u ld b e a t t a i n e d .
T h is w ould b e t h e
I f a r e s p o n d e n t had a
p e r f e c t p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e t o t h e e i g h t s t a t e m e n t s h i s g e o m e tr ic s c o r e
w o u ld b e 2 5 5 .
B e tw e e n 0 and 255 t h e r e a r e 254 p o s s i b l e c o m b in a tio n s o f
resp o n se p a tte r n s ,
s c o r e s 0 , I , 3 , 7 , 1 5 , 3 1 , 6 3 , 1 2 7 , an d 2 5 5 , a r e
p e r f e c t g e o m e tr ic s c o r e s and w i l l c o n t a i n no e r r o r s , a l l o t h e r s w i l l .
The g e o m e tr ic s c o r e i s o b t a i n e d b y a d d in g t h e w e ig h ts o f t h e s ta t e m e n ts
a n sw e re d p o s i t i v e l y .
F o r e x a m p le , s t a t e m e n t one h a s a w e ig h t o f o n e ,
and two a w e ig h t o f tw o .
T h is g i v e s a g e o m e tric s c o r e o f t h r e e .
e r r o r s a r e r e c o r d e d and d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o r d in g t o i te m .
illu s tra te s
some r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n s .
The
T a b le I
F o r ex am p le r e s p o n d e n t H had a
g e o m e tr ic s c o r e o f 191 , he c o u ld o b t a i n t h i s
s c o r e o n ly b y a n s w e rin g
p o s i t i v e l y t o a l l b u t t h e s e v e n t h s t a t e m e n t i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t , had he
a n sw e re d p o s i t i v e l y t o t h i s q u e s t i o n h e w o u ld h av e had a p e r f e c t s c o r e
o f 255.
T h is i s o b t a i n e d b y a d d in g t h e w e i g h ts {l + 2 + 4 + 8 + 1 6 + 3 2
\
+ 128) o r 22 n f o r a l l p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s .
5/
C a r o l L . S t o n e , M aohine M ethod f o r S c a l i n g Tw elve D ic h o to m ie s ., S t a t e
C o lle g e o f W a s h in g to n , p p . 1 -1 3 .
- 17 TABLE I . — RESPONSE PATTERN BY QUESTION AJTO RESPONDENT
W e ig h t
G e o m e tric
sc o re
O
2
7
135
43
15
31
191
223
25S
S c a le
s c o re
O
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
8
8
Number
of e rro rs
O
I
. O
I
2
O
O
I
I
O
M
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
R esoonse o a t t e r n t o Q u e s t i o n s
I
2
3
A
5
A
7
A
'0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
'0
O
O
O
O
O
I
O
O
O
I
I
1
O
O
O
O
O
I
I
I
O
1
O
1
1
1
O
O
O
1
O
O
1
1
I
O
O
I
1
I
1
O
O
O
I
I
I
I
I
1
O
1
1
1
I
I
1
I
O
1
I
1
1■ 1
1
1
1
I'
1
1
2
1
8 16 32 66
4
0»
R espondent
I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e g e o m e tr ic s c o r e t h e r e s p o n d e n t i s g iv e n a s c a l e
s c o r e w h ic h c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e r e s p o n s e c a t e g o r y he b e lo n g s i n .
In th e
c a s e o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t w h o .a n s w e re d p o s i t i v e l y t o a l l b u t t h e s e v e n th
q u e s t i o n , i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t , h i s s c a l e s c o r e w ould b e e i g h t , t h e same
a s i f h e 'd a n sw e re d a l l e i g h t p o s i t i v e l y , b u t w i t h one n e g a t i v e e r r o r .
The r e a s o n f o r t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s t h a t he m ost r e s e m b le s t h a t g ro u p .
A r e s p o n d e n t w i t h a g e o m e tr ic s c o r e o f tw o may b e c l a s s i f i e d e i t h e r w i t h
t h e z e ro g ro u p o r t h e g ro u p w i t h a s c a l e s c o r e o f tw o , i n e i t h e r c a s e he
w i l l r e c e i v e ah e r r o r o f o n e .
A c c o r d in g t o t h e r u l e s s e t up b y F o rd he
w i l l b e p u t i n t h e g r o u p w i t h a s c a l e s c o r e o f two and he w i l l r e c e i v e a
n e g a tiv e e r r o r o f one.
A r e s p o n d e n t w i t h a g e o m e tric s c o r e o f 135 w ould
h a v e a n sw e re d p o s i t i v e l y t o t h e f i r s t t h r e e i t e m s , i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t ,
n e g a t i v e t o t h e n e x t f o u r and p o s i t i v e t o t h e l a s t o n e .
T h is p u t s him
i n t h e g ro u p w i t h a s c a l e s c o r e o f t h r e e w i t h one p o s i t i v e e r r o r , t h e
- 18 e r r o r com ing fro m t h e l a s t q u e s t i o n w h ic h he an sw e re d p o s i t i v e l y .
In
i n s t a n c e s w h e re t h e r e s p o n d e n t h a s a n e r r o r , and i t i s u n c e r t a i n w h e th e r
it
s h o u ld b e a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e e r r o r , t h e e r r o r w i l l b e s p l i t and one
h a l f w i l l b e n e g a t i v e and one h a l f p o s i t i v e .
F o r e x a m p le , i f t h e
r e s p o n d e n t a n s w e re d a l l q u e s t i o n s n e g a t i v e l y , e x c e p t t h e s e c o n d one 'h i s
e r r o r w o u ld b e s p l i t h a l f and h a l f .
I f t h e r e a r e two e r r o r s ,
and t h e r e i s
d o u b t a b o u t w h ic h g ro u p he b e lo n g s t o , t h e e r r o r w i l l b e s p l i t t w o - t h i r d s
n e g a t i v e , t w o - t h i r d s p o s i t i v e , o n e - t h i r d n e g a t i v e , and t w o - t h i r d s p o s i t i v e
i n t h a t o r d e r f o r t h e f o u r r e s p o n s e s i n v o lv e d .
V a l i d i t y o f S c a l e S c o r e s .and J u s .t.i£ ic .a t.i.Q n- 0.£-IIg.e.
T h e re a r e - t h r e e c r i t e r i a t o e s t a b l i s h t h e v a l i d i t y o f a s c a l e i n t h e
G uttm an s e n s e ; l ) t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y m u st b e .9 0 o r o v e r .
Th@ c o e f f i c i e n t i s c a l c u l a t e d b y t o t a l i n g t h e num ber o f e r r o r s and
d i v i d i n g t h i s b y t h e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n t s m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e num ber o f
s t a t e m e n t s , a l l s u b t r a c t e d fro m 1 o r : 6 /
C o e ffic ie n t o f _
re p ro d u c ib ility
_____________ T o ta ,! number. .o f_ errp r_ g -----------Number o f r e s p o n d e n t s x num ber o f ite m s
I t h a s a p o s s i b l e r a n g e fro m z e r o t o o n e .
2)
No ite m i n t h e s c a l e h a s a
t o t a l p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e e r r o r w h ic h i s m ore t h a n $0 p e r c e n t o f t h e
p o s it i v e re s p o n s e ( f o r th e p o s itiv e e r r o r ) o r n e g a tiv e re s p o n s e ( f o r
th e n e g a tiv e e r r o r ) .
3)
T h a t t h e t o t a l num ber o f e r r o r s f o r any ite m i s
no m ore t h a n 15 r p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l num ber o f r e s p o n s e s f o r t h a t ite m .
U
I b i d . . p . 10.
-
19 -
T h a t t h e s e q u a l i f i c a t i o n s a r e m et may b e d e te r m in e d fro m a t a b l e s u c h a s .
T a b le T I , w h ic h show s t h e num ber o f p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s and t h e i r e r r o r s ,
t h e num ber o f n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e s and t h e i r e r r o r s , t o t a l e r r o r s and
p e r c e n t o f e r r o r s f o r e a c h ite m .
TABLE I I . — GUTTMAN SCALE ANALYSIS EOR PLANNING ATTITUDES
S c h e d u le
Q u e stio n '-
E r r o r s __________
s
___ P o s i t i v e ______ s ______ N e g a tiv e ______ «
E r r o r s ; T o ta l _ : T o ta l
s R esponses s E r r o r s s R esponses
Number
Number
Number
5
• 11
Number
Number
4 .5 0 ' 4 .5 0
4
8.0 0
8 .5 0
2
240
12
8
8
.1 7
7
.1
7
239
32
24.72
25.55
6
219
18.17
27.45
167
84
7
10
-.
28
23.21
124
127
5
160
3 1 .3 8
4 .6 6
91
3
0 .0 0
200
2 6 .3 4
51
1 ■
155.00
T o ta l
. . C o e ffic ie n t o f r e p r o d u c ib ility - I 155
- 9 2 .3 %
251 x 8
246
0 .0 0
.5 0
1 .0 0
.83
9 .2 8
12.93
26.72
26.34
—
—
—
P e rce n t
1.79
3 .3 8
3.2 5
■1 0 .1 7
10.93
9 .2 4
1 2 .5 0
1 0 .4 9
—
To o b t a i n t h e t a b l e t h e num ber o f n e g a t i v e and p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s a r e
c o u n te d f o r e a c h q u e s t i o n a lo n g w i t h t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e e r r o r s .
T h is i s
d o n e fro m t h e t a b u l a t e d s h e e t o b t a i n e d b y l i s t i n g t h e c a r d s u se d f o r t h e
m a c h in e m ethod o f s c a l i n g .
The m a c h in e may b e u s e d t o c o u n t
th e t o t a l
e r r o r s , t o t a l n e g a t i v e e r r o r s and t o t a l p o s i t i v e e r r o r s so t h e r e s e a r c h e r
n e e d n o t go th r o u g h t h i s c o u n ti n g p r o c e s s b y h an d .
I n T a b le I I t h e c r i t e r i o n t h a t no i te m h a v e m ore t h a n $0 p e r c e n t e r r o r
i s n o t m e t.
A f t e r o b s e r v i n g t h a t two o f t h e c r i t e r i a h a d b e e n m e t, t h e
r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n o f a l l r e s p o n d e n t s was s t u d i e d and i t w as d e c id e d t h a t
t h e s e ite m s s h o u ld n o t b e r e s c a l e d . a s . w o u ld b e s u g g e s te d b y th e . c r i t e r i o n .
V
— 20 —
T h is c o n c l u s i o n w as r e a c h e d b e c a u s e i n i n s t a n c e s w h ere t h e r e a r e m ore t h a n
a 50 p e r c e n t e r r o r i t w i l l b e n o t i c e d t h a t t h e r e a r e v e r y few r e s p o n d e n t s ,
m o st o f w h ic h a n sw e re d i n c o r r e c t l y .
T h is s u g g e s t s t h a t ju d g m e n t s h o u ld b e
used i n a p p l i c a t i o n o f th e c r i t e r i a .
A lth o u g h a t t i t u d e s a lo n e c a n n o t b e c o n s id e r e d a s d e t e r m i n a n t s o f
f a r m e r 's a c t i o n , t h e i r u s e i n a g r i c u l t u r a l e c o n o m ic s r e s e a r c h may l e a d
t o i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e s o l u t i o n s o f p ro b le m s c o n s id e r e d im p o r ta n t by t h e
f a r m e r s t h e m s e lv e s .
T h is p o i n t i s i l l u s t r a t e d m ore f u l l y i n C h a p te r I I I .
CONTINGENCY TABLES
A f t e r t h e s c a l e s c o r e h a s b e e n d e te r m in e d 1 f o r e a c h r e s p o n d e n t and we
know t h e d e g r e e o f f a v o r a b l e n e s s o r u n f a v o r a b l e n e s s t h e n e x t s t e p i s t o
d e te r m in e w h at f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e t h e r e s p o n d e n t 's a t t i t u d e to w a rd c ro p
in s u ra n c e .
To do t h i s c o n tin g e n c y t a b l e s w e re c o n s t r u c t e d t o com pare
s c a le s c o re s to o th e r f a c t o r s t h a t a p p e are d t o be a p p r o p r ia te .
o f t h e f a c t o r s t e s t e d a r e i n C h a p te r I I I .
A lis t
I n te rv ie w s w ith fa rm e rs
s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e s e f a c t o r s may a f f e c t t h e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s .
T a b le I I I i s
an ex am p le o f a c o n ti n g e n c y t a b l e .
In t h i s ta b le th e
s c a l e s c o r e s a p p e a r on one s i d e and 'fa rm s i z e a p p e a r s on t h e t o p .
The
t a b l e t h e n shows- how many tim e s t h e s c a l e s c o r e 0 -4 w as a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
e a c h fa r m s i z e g r o u p .
F o r exam ple,, s c a l e s c o r e 0 - 4 w as a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
t h e g ro u p u n d e r 600 c r o p a c r e s 29 t i m e s , w i t h t h e 600 - 1 ,0 9 9 g ro u p 24
t i m e s , w i t h t h e 1 , 100 - 1 ,3 9 9 g ro u p 8 t i m e s , and w i t h t h e 1 ,4 0 0 - 2 ,4 9 9
g ro u p 20 t i m e s .
- 21
TABLE I I I . — OBSERVED CONTINGENCY TABLE FOR SCALE SCORE AED FARM SIZE
S c a le
"score
Farm s i z e i n c r o p a c r e s
U nder
AOO
6 0 0 - 1 .0 9 9
29
13
7
7
24
21
24
21
56
90
■ 0 - 4
5
6
7 - 8
M a rg in a l
to ta ls
1 . 100-1 .3 9 9
8
1.2
8
4
1 .4 0 0 - 2 .4 9 9
20
14
14
26
32
73
M a rg in a l
to ta ls
81
60
53
67
251
To t e s t t h e b a s i s o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n t h e t a b l e a c h i - s q u a r e t e s t i s
used-.
T h is c h i - s q u a r e i s d e s ig n e d t o t e s t f o r in d e p e n d e n c e o r d e p e n d e n c e
i n t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n so t h e h y p o t h e s i s t e s t e d i s t h a t " t h e two c r i t e r i a ,
s c a l e s c o r e and fa rm s i z e , a r e i n d e p e n d e n t ” .
The c h i - s q u a r e f o r m u la f o r
th is te s t is :
i2
C h i-sq u a re = 2 (O ^ - E ^ j) '
I/
llI j
W h ere:
O y = o b s e r v e d num ber o f t h e i j t h c e l l ,
Ey
= e x p e c te d num ber i n t h e i j t h c e l l ,
= Ri-Cj
and
R.
=S
Gj
= 2 O y = t p t a l o b s e r v e d num ber i n t h e j t h colum n,
n
2/
O y = t o t a l o b s e r v e d num ber i n t h e i t h row ,
= t h e t o t a l num ber o f o b s e r v a t i o n s .
B e r n a r d O s t l e , S t a t i s t i c s i n R e s e a r c h , Iow a S t a t e C o lle g e P r e s s ,
Ames, Io w a , 1'956, p . 7 0 .
22 -
(r - l)
(c - l ) = t h e d e g r e e s of* fre e d o m .
r = t h e num ber o f row s
c
t h e num ber o f co lu m n s
Thp c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e e x p e c te d num ber f o r e a c h c e l l y i e l d s a t a b l e
s u c h a s T a b le IV .
U s in g t h e f o r m u l a 'f o r c a l c u l a t i n g e x p e c te d v a lu e s t h e
v a l u e 1 8 .0 7 1 i n c e l l 0 - 4 , u n d e r 600 w as o b t a i n e d b y (8 1 x 5 6 ) /2 5 1 .
The
v a lu e o f t h e c e l l 0 - 4 , 6 0 0 - 1 ,0 9 9 = 2 9 ,0 4 3 = (8 1 x 9 0 ) /2 5 1 .
TABLE I V .— EXPECTED VALUE FOR SCALE SCORE AED FARM SIZE
S c a le
sc o re
Farm s i z e i n c r o n a c r e s
U nder
600
V
6 0 0 - 1 .099
■<h
1
0
1 8 .0 7 1
29.043
5
6
7 - 8
13.386
2 1 .5 1 3
1 9 .0 0 3
1 1 .8 2 5
1 2 .7 1 7
20.438
I ./ .0 0 - 2 ./ 9 9 .
I .1 0 0 - 1 .3 9 9
10.326
7 .649
6.757
7 .2 6 6
23.557
1 7 .4 5 0
1 5 .4 1 4
,
16.577
The c h i - s q u a r e f o r T a b le I I I w as e q u a l t o 2 3 .7 5 - ( 1 8 .0 7 1 - 2 9 ) ^ /1 8 .0 7 1
+ (29.043 - 2 4)^ /29.043 + . . . + (1 6 .5 7 7 - 2 5 )2 /1 6 .5 7 7 .
U s in g t h i s c h i - s q u a r e t h e h y p o t h e s i s i s r e j e c t e d i f t h e c a l c u l a t e d
c h i- s q u a re i s g r e a t e r th a n th e ta b u la te d c h i- s q u a re a t th e
l e v e l w ith ( r - l )
(c - l ) d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m .
.0 5 s i g n i f i c a n c e
F o r t h i s exam ple t h e
h y p o t h e s i s i s r e j e c t e d s i n c e t h e c a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e = 23.75 w h ic h i s
g r e a t e r t h a n t h e t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e o f 1 2 .5 9 2 a t t h e .05 s i g n i f i c a n c e
l e v e l w i t h 9 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m .
-
23 -
PAIRED COMPARISONS
The p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s m eth o d i s an a l t e r n a t i v e way t o o b t a i n a r a n k
o rd er fo r a s e t o f o b je c ts .
H ow ever, p a i r e d c o m p a ris o n s e n a b le us t o r a n k
n o t o n ly t h e o b j e c t s b u t f i n d t h e s c a l e s e p a r a t i o n s b e tw e e n t h e o b j e c t s a s
w e ll.
F o r t h i s s tu d y two s h o r t s e t s o f p a i r e d c o m p a ris o n s w e re u s e d , one
t o m e a s u re t y p e s o f h a z a r d s and one t o m e a s u re a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s o f
p r o te c tio n a v a ila b le to fa rm e rs.
A s c h e d u le o f t h e p a i r s i s i n A p p en d ix B.
The f o l l o w i n g a r e d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e ite m s u s e d f o r t h e p a i r s .
The
f i r s t g ro u p c o m p r is e s t h e m a in h a z a r d s f a c e d b y f a r m e r s .
D r o u th — dam age c a u s e d b y l a c k o f m b is t u r e s u f f i c i e n t t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y
a f f e c t th e y ie ld .
H a l l — dam aged b y a h a i l s to r m s u f f i c i e n t t o c u t t h e y i e l d .
.
Wind and f l o o d i n g — dam age c a u s e d b y h i g h w in d s and s u f f i c i e n t
f l o o d i n g t o i m p a ir t h e c r o p g ro w th o r s e e d in g .
I >
I n s e c t and d i s e a s e — dam age c a u s e d b y i n s e c t s and d i s e a s e s u c h a s
g r a s s h o p p e r s and r u s t .
W in te r k i l l — dam age c a u s e d b y f a i l u r e o f t h e w i n t e r w h e a t t o s u r v i v e
th e w in te r.
A l l r i s k s — t h i s w ould i n c l u d e a l l t h e a b o v e .
The s e c o n d g ro u p c o m p r is e s s e v e n a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s o f p r o t e c t i o n .
A l l - r i s k o r c r o p - h a i l I n s u r a n c e — r e f e r s t o i n s u r a n c e w h ic h c a n
as., a m a n a g e r i a l t o o l t o p r o t e c t f a r m e r s a g a i n s t l o s s o f incom e
fro m p a r t i a l o r c o m p le te c r o p f a i l u r e , w h ic h i s due t o a d v e r s e
c o n d i t i o n s o r o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s w h ic h a r e bey o n d t h e c o n t r o l o f
f a rm e r.
be u sed
a ris in g
w e a th e r
th e
S to r e d g r a i n and f e e d — r e f e r s t o t h e s t o r a g e o f g r a i n and f e e d f o r
p u r p o s e s o f o f f s e t t i n g low y i e l d s o f t h e s e g r a i n s and f e e d s .
T h is
i s a m a n a g e ria l t o o l s im i la r to in s u r a n c e , i n t h i s c a s e th e fa rm e r
c a r r i e s h i s own i n s u r a n c e i n t h e fo rm o f s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d .
- 24 S h o r t - t e r m c r e d i t — r e f e r s t o money b o rro w e d f o r p r o d u c t i o n p u r p o s e s ,
s u p p l i e s o b t a i n e d fro m m e r c h a n ts o r d e a l e r s on a c h a r g e a c c o u n t, and
lo a n s n o t o v e r th r e e y e a r s i n le n g th .
The l o a n c a n b e f o r o p e r a t i n g
e x p e n s e s , m a c h in e r y , m o to r v e h i c l e s o r t r u c k s , o r f o r f a m i ly l i v i n g
ex p en ses.
O f f - f a r m j o b s — r e f e r s t o t a k i n g a j o b o f f t h e fa rm t o c o m p e n sa te f o r
l o s s o f incom e on t h e fa rm f o l l o w i n g one o r m ore p o o r c ro p y e a r s .
B e l t t i g h t e n i n g — r e f e r s t o c u t t i n g e x p e n s e s t h a t w o u ld n o r m a lly b e
■ in c u rre d b u t w h ic h may b e e l i m i n a t e d d u r i n g a p e r i o d o f p o o r c r o p
y e a rs .C a sh , s t o c k s and b o n d s — r e f e r s t o m oney i n t h e b a n k , s a v in g s a c c o u n ts
a n d - to c o r p o r a t e s t o c k s and b o n d s s u c h a s c i t y , s t a t e , f e d e r a l o r
c o rp o ra te .
T h e se a r e a l l c o n s i d e r e d e q u a l l y l i q u i d f o r o u r p u r p o s e s
and r e a d i l y c o n v e r t i b l e i n t o c a s h .
Di v e r s i . f i ed f a rm in g — t h i s r e f e r s t o a g r a i n f a r m e r who d i v e r s i f i e s h i s
o p e r a t i o n f o r p u r p o s e s o f s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm in co m e.
T h is c o u ld b e i n
t h e fo rm o f a f e e d i n g o p e r a t i o n , r a i s i n g h o g s , e t c .
When p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s a r e u s e d we assum e; I1) t h a t t h e ite m s i n t h e
p a i r s c a n b e r a n k e d , 2 ) t h a t t h e r a n k may b e t e s t e d f o r s t a t i s t i c a l
v a l i d i t y , 3 ) t h a t t h e ite m s a r e n o n -ra n d o m and 4 ) t h a t t h e e r r o r s a r e d i s ­
t r i b u t e d a p p r o x im a te ly a s c h i - s q u a r e .
E s t a b l i s h i n g a Rank O rd e r and T e s t i n g t h e R ank f o r A greem ent
U s in g t h i s m eth o d e a c h r e s p o n d e n t i s a s k e d t o c h o o s e t h e ite m he f e e l s
i s m o st im p o r ta n t fro m e a c h p a i r .
The num ber o f p a i r s f o r t h e g ro u p i s
n f a c t o r s t a k e n tw o a t a tim e o r {2 )=g-n{n - l ) , w h ere n e q u a l s t h e num ber
o f f a c t o r s b e i n g ran k ed -.
f a c t o r s w h ic h y i e l d s
F o r e x a m p le , f o r t h e f i r s t g r o u p t h e r e a r e s i x
I n t h i s a n a l y s i s <a. m a t r ix
s u c h a s t h e F M a tr ix , T a b le V, i s u s e d t o com pare t h e i t e m s .
The m a t r i x
w i l l show t h e num ber o f t im e s e a c h i te m w as c h o s e n o v e r e v e r y o t h e r one
i n th e a g g re g a te .
F o r e x a m p le , i n t h e F M a tr ix , r e a d i n g a c r o s s t h e t a b l e
25 TABLE V .— F - MATRIX, JUDGMENTS OF 251 FARMERS ON ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF
PROTECTION USED BY FARMERS
A lte rn a tiv e s
R ank
6
O ff-fa rm jo b s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
5
B e lt tig h te n in g
4
C rop i n s u r a n c e
3
C a sh , s t o c k s and
2
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
I
fee d
TOTALS
—
F v a lu e f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
2
3
L
5 •
1 5 1 .5
1 3 5 .5 ' 1 6 0 .0
1 4 2 .5
----1 3 1 .0
156.5
144.5
1 3 3 .0
148.0
1 2 0 .0
—----1 1 8 .0
139.5
1 0 6 .5
6
-----
108.5
—
—
1 1 5 .5
9 1 .0
9 9 .5
9 4 .5
1 0 3 .0
1 1 1 .5
39.5
6 0 .0
55.0
7 6 .5
4 5 4.0
523.0
542.5
6 2 5 .5
—• — — —
58.0 -
"653.5
I
2 1 1 .5
1 9 1 .0
196.0
174.5
193.0
____
996.0
on row 6 , s h o r t - t e r m c r e d i t - w as c h o s e n o v e r o f f - f a r m j o b s 1 4 2 .5 t i m e s , b e l t
t i g h t e n i n g w as c h o s e n o v e r o f f - f a r m j o b s 1 3 5 .5 t i m e s .
A f t e r summing a c r o s s
t h e ro w s a r a n k o r d e r may b e e s t a b l i s h e d b y r e a r r a n g i n g t h e m a t r i x .
f a c t o r w i t h t h e s m a l l e s t sum i s t h e f a c t o r i n f i r s t p l a c e i
The
In th e F
M a tr ix t h i s w as s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d and w as p l a c e d on t h e b o tto m t o
fa c ilita te
th e s c a lin g p ro c e s s .
I f a ’r e s p o n d e n t f a i l s t o show a p r e f e r e n c e
f o r one o f t h e f a c t o r s i n a p a i r one h a l f o f e a c h o f h i s r e s p o n s e i s p l a c e d
i n t h e c o r r e s p o n d in g c e l l s .
T h is y i e l d s a h a l f o f a r e s p o n s e a s shown i n
t h e c e l l (6 - 5 ) .
We may t e s t f o r c o e f f i c i e n t o f a g re e m e n t among t h e r e s p o n d e n t s by
t h e f o rm u la s £ /
g/
V
2S
- I
i)
(S) (2)
M. G. K e n d a l l, Rank C o r r e l a t i o n M e th o d s . H a fn e r P u b l i s h i n g C o ., New
Y o rk , 1 9 5 5 , 2nd e d i t i o n , p p . 1 0 7 -1 0 9 .
f
- 26 —
w h e r e s X | = t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f a g re e m e n t w h ic h v a r i e s fro m a
maximum o f I f o r p e r f e c t a g r e e m e n t, t o a minimum o f
- l / ( m - l) i f m i s e v e n o f - l / m i f m i s o d d .
m
= num ber o f r e s p o n d e n t s
n '• = num ber o f ite m s b e in g r a n k e d
C™)= -g-m(m-l)
w h ere t h e su m m atio n o c c u r s f o r v a l u e s b e lo w t h e d i a g o n a l s
2)
Z = Z(Y)^ - mZM + g ) (§)
w h e re : tY
i s th e v a lu e o f each c e l l i n th e m a trix .
T h is p r o v i d e s a m eans o f d e te r m i n in g t h e e x t e n t t o w h ic h a g ro u p o f
r e s p o n d e n t s a g r e e i n t h e i r c o m p a r a tiv e ju d g m e n ts .
The s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t f o r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f a g re e m e n t i n d i c a t e s
w h e th e r :o r n o t t h e l e v e l o f a g re e m e n t c a l c u l a t e d c o u ld b e a t t a i n e d i f t h e
c o m p a r a tiv e ju d g m e n ts o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s w e re random .
The f o r m u la K e n d a ll
uses f o r t h is t e s t i s : 2 /
w h e re : Z
= t h e v a lu e o b t a i n e d by f o r m u la 2
m = t h e num ber o f j u d g e s
n = t h e num ber o f ite m s
The d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m f o r c h i - s q u a r e i s g i v e n b y t h e f o r m u la :
V
2/
I b i d . . p . 107.
= (p )
mCm-l)
(m -2 )2
- 27 -
S c a le V a lu e s f o r t h e R ank O rd e r
T h u r s to n e s " la w o f C o m p a ra tiv e J u d g m e n ts" i s u s e d t o f i n d t h e s c a l e
v a l u e s o f t h e p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s . 1 0 /
T h is law p r o v id e s a r a t i o n a l e f o r
o r d e r i n g t h e i te m s a lo n g a p s y c h o l o g i c a l c o n tin u u m .
The law a s su m e s ; l ) f o r a g iv e n s t i m u l u s t h e r e i s
a s s o c i a t e d a m ost
f r e q u e n t l y a r o u s e d o r m o d al d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s on a p s y c h o l o g i c a l
c o n tin u u m , l l /
and 2 ) a l l d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s e s a r o u s e d b y a s ti m u lu s a r e
n o r m a lly d i s t r i b u t e d a b o u t t h i s m o d al d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s .
W ith t h i s
a s s u m p tio n i n m ind i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s a y t h a t t h e r e i s a m ean w h ic h i s
.
t h e same a s t h e mode and m e d ia n d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s , a s w o u ld b e t h e c a s e
i n a n o rm a l d i s t r i b u t i o n .
T h is m ean i s t h e s c a l e v a l u e o f t h e s t i m u l u s .
The s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f t h e d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s i s r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e
d is c rim in a l d is p e rs io n . 1 2 /
T h u r s to n e s law i s
s t a t e d , i n e q u a t i o n fo rm a s : 1 3 /
Rj " Rk = Z jk
CTj2
V
+ CTk2 " 2rJktrj C k
10/
A. L. E d w a rd s , o p . o i t . , p . 2 0 .
ll/
A d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s i s a t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t and r e p r e s e n t s t h e
e x p e r i e n c e o r r e a c t i o n o f a n i n d i v i d u a l when a s k e d to -m a k e a c o m p a ris o n
o r ju d g m e n t o f some a t t r i b u t e .
As t h e s ti m u lu s w i l l n o t a lw a y s e v o k e
t h e same d i s c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s t h e r e w i l l b e a m o d al one w h ic h w i l l b e
t h e one m ost f r e q u e n t l y a p p e a r in g .
12/
E d w a rd s , op., . a i t . , p . 2 1 .
12/
J . P . G u i l f o r d , P s y c h o m e tric M e th o d s . M cG raw -H ill B ook Company, I n c . ,
New Y o rk , 1954,- p p . 1 5 5 -1 5 6 .
— 28 —
w here?
Rj and R^. = t h e m ean p s y c h o l o g i c a l v a l u e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y
a t t a c h e d t o s t i m u l i S^. and S^. r e s p e c t i v e l y .
Z .v = t h e d e v i a t e fro m t h e m ean o f a u n i t n o rm a l
^
d is trib u tio n .
(jr . and O mTjji = s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s o f d i s t r i b u t i o n s Rfo. and Ru
^
re s p e c tiv e ly .
^
^
r j^ . = t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n R ^. and R ^
I n o r d e r t o s i m p l i f y t h e e q u a t i o n and e l i m i n a t e some o f t h e unknowns
T h u r s to n e d i s t i n g u i s h e d f i v e c a s e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e la w .
As o n ly C ase V
w as u s e d i n t h e s tu d y i t i s t h e o n ly one t h a t w i l l b e r e p e a t e d h e r e .
C ase V a ssu m e s t h a t t h e d i s c r i m i n a l d i s p e r s i o n s a r e a l l e q u a l and T j^
e q u a ls 0 , i n w h ic h c a s e (j*j =
r e d u c e s t o Rj - Rjc = Z jjc Q - j
k.
\ /
2 .
L e t o r ^ r e p r e s e n t b o t h and th e law
L e t O’*, becom e t h e u n i t o f t h e s c a l e ,
and t h e r e f o r e e q u a l t o u n i t y , Rj - R^. = Z jjc \ / 2
t h e s c a l e becom e 0~j
V
.
T hen l e t t h e u n i t o f
^ > ant^ t h e law r e d u c e s t o Rj - Rjc =
The
a s s u m p tio n s in v o lv e d i n C ase V may b e c h e c k e d b y t h e t e s t o f i n t e r n a l
c o n s is te n c y .
A c h i - s q u a r e t e s t i s u s e d t o d e te r m in e t h e g o o d n e s s o f f i t o f
o b s e r v e d to '- 'e x p e c te d p r o p o r t i o n s .
I f th e r e s u l t s a re i n t e r n a l l y c o n s is te n t
we s a y t h e r e i s n o t h i n g c o n t r a d i c t o r y i n t h e a s s u m p tio n s . 2 A /
The a p p l i c a t i o n o f C ase V s t a r t s w i t h t h e F M a tr ix ( T a b le V) t h a t
w as u s e d f o r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f a g r e e m e n t, and p r e c e d e s th r o u g h s i x s t e p s .
The f i r s t i s o b t a i n i n g a P M a tr ix ( T a b le V i) b y c a l c u l a t i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n
o f tim e s e a c h i te m was c h o s e n o v e r e v e r y o t h e r o n e .
used f o r t h i s .
IL /
The o r i g i n a l m a t r i x i s
F o r e x a m p le , fro m T a b le V t h e p r o p o r t i o n ( p ) f o r t h e c e l l
I b i d . . p . 156.
-
(o ff-fa rm jo b s ,
29 -
s h o r t - t e r m c r e d i t ) i s e q u a l t o 1 4 2 .5 /2 5 1 = .5 6 8 .
For c e lls
w h e re t h e f a c t o r i s co m p ared t o i t s e l f a p r o p o r t i o n o f .5 0 0 i s i n s e r t e d a s
l o g i c a l l y c o m p a rin g i t t o i t s e l f s h o u ld y i e l d t h i s p r o p o r t i o n .
Rank
6
5
4
3
6
. 500'
.4 3 2
• 460
.3 6 3
P v a lu e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
3.
4 _
. 5
.5 6 8 ^
.5 4 0
.6 3 7
.5 0 0
.5 2 2
.5 7 6
.5 0 0
.4 7 8
.5 3 0
.470.5 0 0
.4 2 4
,.2
.604
0624
.590
.5 5 6
1_
.8 4 3
.7 6 1
.7 8 1
.6 9 5
2
.3 9 6
.3 7 6
.4 1 0
. 444
in
O
A lte rn a tiv e s
O ff-fa rm jo b s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C ro p i n s u r a n c e
C a sh , s t o c k s and
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
feed
TOTALS
0 .
TABLE V I .— P MATRIX CORRESPONDING TO F MATRIX
.7 6 9
I
.1 5 7
2 ,3 0 8
.2 3 9
2 .5 8 3
.2 1 9
2 .6 6 1
.3 0 5
2 .9 9 2
.2 3 1
3 .1 0 5
.5 0 0
4 .3 4 9
In th e second s te p th e
v a l u e s f o r e a c h P v a l u e a r e fo u n d u s in g a
t a b l e o f N orm al D e v i a t e s Z C o r r e s p o n d in g t o P r o p o r t i o n s P o f a D ic h a to m iz e d
U n it N orm al D i s t r i b u t i o n . 1 5 /
E a c h p r o p o r t i o n i s lo o k e d up i n t h i s t a b l e
w h ic h g i v e s t h e c o r r e s p o n d in g Z v a l u e , s u c h a s fo u n d i n T a b le V I I .
e x a m p le , t h e Z v a l u e f o r .4 3 2 i s -L 1 7 1 , and f o r .5 6 8 i t
is
.1 7 1 .
For
A
n e g a t i v e v a lu e o f Z w i l l b e fo u n d f o r p r o p o r t i o n s l e s s t h a n .5 0 0 and a
p o s i t i v e one f o r p r o p o r t i o n s m ore t h a n . 5 0 0 .
15/
A. L. E d w a rd s , o p . c i t . . p . 3 5 .
I f t h i s t a b l e i s n o t a v a i l a b l e a T a b le
o f A re a and O r d i n a t e s o f t h e N orm al C u rv e may bd u s e d .
The p r o p o r t i o n s ,
w hen s u b t r a c t e d fro m .5 0 0 becom e a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e a r e a u n d e r t h e
n o rm a l c u r v e .
The Z i s t h e n t h e v a l u e o f X/o" a t t h i s p o i n t . F o r
ex am p le t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e a r e a u n d e r t h e n o rm a l c u r v e f o r t h e p r o ­
p o r t i o n .4 3 2 i n P M a tr ix i s .0 6 8 t h e v a lu e o f X /cr a t t h i s p o i n t i s .
fo u n d fro m t h e t a b l e t o b e „17.
The t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o r t i o n s a r e f o u n d
i n t h i s t a b l e b y t a k i n g t h e t h e o r e t i c a l Z v a lu e s t o b e X / q* , l o o k in g
t h i s up i n t h e t a b l e and s u b t r a c t i n g fro m .5 0 0 g i v e s t h e t h e o r e t i c a l
p ro p o rtio n s .
- 30 -
TABLE V I I . — Z MATRIX CORRESPONDING TO P MATRIX
A lte rn a tiv e s
O ff-fa rm jo b s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C rop i n s u r a n c e
C a s h , s t o c k s and
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
fee d
Z Z ij
MZi j
Rj
2I v a l u e s f o r
■ 5 ■
.1 7 1 '
. .0 0 0
- .0 5 5
- .1 9 2
-
Rank
6
5 4 3 -
6
.0 0 0
.1 7 1
.1 0 0
.3 5 1
2
-
. 264
- . .3 1 6
I
- I .0 0 7
- 1 .8 9 3
- .3 1 5
.0 0 0
- .7 1 0
- 1 .1 0 2
-
.1 8 3
.1 3 2
a lte rn a tiv e s
L
3
.1 0 0
■ .3 5 1
.1 9 2
.055
.0 0 0
.0 7 5
.0 0 0
.075
-
.2 2 8
-
,1 4 1
.0 0 0
.736
-
.7 7 6
. 924
.1 5 4
.1 6 1
-
.4 1 0
.0 3 3
.005
.309
-
2
.2 6 4
.3 1 6
- I
1 .0 0 7
0710
.228
.776
.1 5 1
.5 1 0
.7 3 6
.2 1 3
.035
.349
.0 0 0
3 .7 3 9
.623
.937
v a lu e s i s fo u n d f o r e a c h co lu m n
ij
and fro m t h e M gjj v a l u e £i t h e s c a l e v a l u e s a r e o b t a i n e d b y s e t t i n g t h e ite m
From t h i s Z :m a t r i x t h e mean o f t h e Z
w i t h t h e lo w e s t r a n k a t .0 0 0 ( o f f - f a r m j o b s ) t h e n a d d in g t h e d i f f e r e n c e
b e tw e e n e a c h o f t h e o t h e r v a l u e s .
F o r e x a m p le ; Mgp - Mg2 "
• 132 i s t h e
s c a l e f o r s h o r t - t e r m c r e d i t and .1 3 2 + Mg2 - Mg^ = .1 6 1 i s t h e s c a l e v a lu e
o f b e l t tig h te n in g .
H a v in g o b t a i n e d t h e s c a l e v a l u e s f o r e a c h o f t h e i te m s a t e s t f o r
i n t e r n a l c o n s i s t e n c y i s made b y c o m p a rin g t h e t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o r t i o n s t o
t h e o b s e rv e d p r o p o r t i o n s .
T h is i n v o l v e s f i n d i n g t h e t h e o r e t i c a l n o rm a l
d e v i a t e s Z j j c o r r e s p o n d in g t o t h e s c a l e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n t h e i te m s , t h i s
i s S te p t h r e e .
s c a le v a lu e s .
The n o rm a l d e v i a t e s f o r e a c h ite m a r e c a l c u l a t e d fro m t h e
As shown i n T a b le V I I I t h e t h e o r e t i c a l n o rm a l d e v i a t e s f o r
co lu m n s i x a r e .t h e g c .a le v a l u e s o f a l l i t e m s .
The t h e o r e t i c a l n o rm a l
d e v i a t e s f o r co lu m n f i v e a r e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n t h e s c a l e v a lu e s i n
co lu m n s i x ad d ed s u c c e s s i v e l y .
The same i s t r u e f o r t h e o t h e r c o lu m n s.
-
31 -
TABLE V i n . — THEORETICAL NORMAL DEVIATES Zi j - CORRESPONDING TO SCALE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ITEMS IN THE Z MATRIX
A lte rn a tiv e s
O ff-fa rm jo b s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C rop i n s u r a n c e
C a sh , s t o c k s and
bonds
S to re d g r a in
and f e e d
T h e o r e tic a l Z v a lu e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
S c a le
6
I
2
R ank v a l u e s
4
■ 5
.ooo ■
6 .
- .1 3 2
.1 3 2
5
- .1 6 1
.1 6 1
-.0 2 9
4'
- .1 7 8
- .3 0 9
- .1 4 9
3
.309
2
.349
-.3 4 9
-.. 218
-.1 8 9
—. 040
I
.937
- .9 3 7
- .8 0 6
- .7 7 7
- .6 2 8
I n s t e p f o u r t h e t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o r t i o n s a r e fo u n d s
- .5 8 8
T h ese a r e t a k e n
fro m a T a b le o f N orm al D e v i a t e s b y r e v e r s i n g t h e o r d e r u s e d t o o b t a i n t h e
v a l u e s f o r t h e Z M a tr ix .
F o r e x a m p le , t h e - . 1 3 2 i n t h e c e l l (5~ 6) i n
T a b le V I I I i s lo o k e d up i n t h e T a b le o f N orm al D e v i a t e s and t h e p r o p o r t i o n
c o r r e s p o n d in g t o i t
i s fo u n d i n t h e m a r g in o f t h e t a b l e , w h ic h i s
.4 4 7 .
T h e se t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o r t i o n s a r e shown i n T a b le IX .
TABLE I X . — THEORETICAL PROPORTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES CORRESPONDING TO
THE P MATRIX
Al t e r n a ti.v e is
O ff-fa rm jo b s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C rop i n s u r a n c e
C a sh , s t o c k s , and
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
fee d
R ank
6
5
4
3
T h e o re tic a l P v a lu e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
2
I
6
' 4
. .,-4____
.0 0 0
■.000
.4 4 7
.0 0 0
.436
.489
.000
• 441
.429
.379
2
.364
.414
.425
.4 8 4
.0 0 0
I
.1 7 4
.2 1 0
.219
.265
.278
- 32 S t e p f i v e i n v o l v e s c o n v e r t i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n s i n t o a n g le s i n te r m s o f
d e g r e e s (G ), fro m a T a b le o f A n g u la r T r a n s f o r m a tio n o f P e r c e n t a g e s t o
D eg rees. 1 6 /
T h is y i e l d s t h e v a l u e s f o r 9 and 9 ' w h ic h a r e com pared and
d i s c r e p a n c i e s b e tw e e n th em a r e t h e n s q u a r e d and summed.
T a b le X shows
t h e s e v a l u e s f o r t h i s e x a m p le .
TABLE■X, — VALUES OF 9 and 9 ' , OBSERVED AND EXPECTED PROPORTIONS CONVERTED
INTO MGLES IN TERMS OF DEGREES
A lte rn a tiv e s
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C rop i n s u r a n c e
C a sh , s t o c k s , and
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
fe e d
S h o r t- t e r m , c r e d i t
B e lt tig h te n in g
C rop i n s u r a n c e
C a sh , s t o c k s and
bonds
S t o r e d g r a i n and
■ fee d
6
4 1 .0 9
4 2 .7 1
3 7 .0 5
Rank
5
•4
3
3 9 .0 0
2
9 v a lu e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
5
L
3
4 3 .7 4
4 0 .6 3
4 3 .2 8
3 7 .8 2
3 9 .8 2
4 1 .7 8
2 7 .9 0
3 3 .5 2
I
I
2 3 .2 6
5
4
3
9! v a l u e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
'4 1 .9 6
4 1 .3 2
4 4 .3 7
3 8 .0 0 .
4 0 .9 2
4 1 .6 1
2
3 7 .1 1
4 0 .0 5
4 0 .6 9
4 4 .0 8
I
2 4 .6 5
2 7 .2 8
2 7 .9 0
3 0 .9 8
2 9 .1 3
2
2 8 .7 3
3 1 .8 2
S te p s i x i s th e i n t e r n a l c o n s is te n c y t e s t c a lc u la te d u s in g th e c h isquafre f o r m u la a s f o l l o w s :
C h i-sq u a re
16/
- F I 9 - 9 1) ^
821/N
I b i d . . p p . 3 7 -4 0 .
-
w here?
33 -
9 = t h e o b s e r v e d a n g le s i n te r m s o f d e g r e e s
9 '= t h e e x p e c te d a n g le s i n te r m s o f d e g r e e s
N - t h e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n t s
\
C n -I) ( n -2 ) /2
= t h e d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m w h e re n e q u a ls t h e num ber o f
f a c t o r s b e in g ra n k e d .
The n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t o b e t e s t e d w i t h t h i s c h i - s q u a r e i s t h a t " t h e
a s s u m p tio n s t h a t h a v e b e e n made a b o u t t h i s m o d el a r e t e n a b l e " .
t h e a s s u m p tio n s s t a t e d on p a g e 2 7 .
Thebe a r e
The n u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s r e j e c t e d i f t h e
c a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e a t t h e .0 5
s ig n ific a n c e le v e l.
I n t h i s e x am p le t h e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e o f c h i - s q u a r e w as
1 3 .0 9 , t h e t a b u l a t e d v a l u e was 1 8 .3 0 7 a t t h e
d e g r e e s o f f re e d o m .
.0 5 s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l w i t h 10
The n u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s a c c e p te d and t h e a s s u m p tio n s
a re s a id to be te n a b le . 1 7 /
I f t h e J i u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s r e j e c t e d t h e r e a r e two a l t e r n a t i v e s o p en ;
l)
t h e ite m s c a n b e r e s c a l e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p tio n s o f C ase I I I o r 2)
t h e d i s c r i m i n a l d i s p e r s i o n s c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e i te m s i n t h e
p r e s e n t m o d e ls .
I f t h e d i s c r i m i n a l d i s p e r s i o n s a r e c a l c u l a t e d i t may b e
p o s s i b l e t o d e te r m in e i f one o f t h e i te m s d o e s n o t b e lo n g on t h e c o n tin u u m .
I f one i s f o u n d i t may b e e l i m i n a t e d fro m t h e m a t r i x and t h e r e m a in in g
i te m s may t h e n b e r e s c a l e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p tio n s o f C ase V.
J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r U se
I t may b e n e c e s s a r y and d e s i r a b l e i n r e s e a r c h t o f i n d t h e r a n k o r d e r
of a se t of fa c to rs .
12/
I b i d . , p p . 5 5 -6 6 .
T h is may b e a c c o m p lis h e d b y a s k in g t h e r e s p o n d e n t s
- 34 t o a r r a n g e t h e s e t i n t h e o r d e r o f h i s p r e f e r e n c e o r b y t h e m ethod o f
p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s .
The p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n ’ s m ethod i s a m ore u s e f u l ,
t o o l t h a n t h e r a n k o r d e r b e c a u s e t h e s c a l e s e p a r a t i o n s a r e a m ore
p r e c i s e m e a s u re o f t h e r a n k .
P a s t e x p e r i e n c e i n d i c a t e s , f o r a s m a ll s e t
o f p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s , p e o p le r e s p o n d r e a d i l y .
B ecause t h e - s e t in c r e a s e s
g e o m e t r i c a l l y a s f a c t o r s a r e a d d e d , t h e m eth o d h a s l i m i t a t i o n s f o r
r a n k i n g a l a r g e num ber o f f a c t o r s .
BUDGET M A U S IS
B u d g e ts a r e u s e d t o d e te r m in e how w e l l c r o p i n s u r a n c e m e e ts th e
r e q u i r e m e n t o f m a i n t a i n i n g n e t f a r m incom e a t a l e v e l a d e q u a te f o r t h e
s u r v i v a l o f t h e fa rm u n i t i n t h e s h o r t r u n .
T h is r e q u i r e m e n t w i l l b e
a n a ly z e d , f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u r fa rm u n i t s p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d on p a g e 1 3 .
B u d g e t A s s u m p tio n s
I n o r d e r t o c o m p le te t h e b u d g e t a n a l y s i s s e v e r a l r e s t r i c t i n g
a s s u m p tio n s a r e n e c e s s a r y .
1)
A l l fa r m u n i t s a r e owned b y t h e o p e r a t o r .
P a r t ow ner and
t e n a n t s i t u a t i o n s a r e n o t a n a ly z e d a lth o u g h i t i s r e c o g ­
n i z e d t h a t t h e y fo rm an i m p o r ta n t seg m en t o f M o n tan a d r y la n d
a g ric u ltu re .
2)
W heat and b a r l e y a r e t h e o n ly c r o p s r a i s e d on t h e f a r m s .
A l l w h e a t and b a r l e y r a i s e d w i l l b e s o l d e a c h y e a r a t a
p r ic e e q u a l to t h e i r r e s p e c tiv e su p p o rt p r ic e s .
-
3)
35 -
E a c h f a r m i s i n c o m p lia n c e w i t h t h e p r e s e n t a c r e a g e a ll o tm e n t
p ro g ra m , a n d 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e c r o p l a n d c o n s t i t u t e s t h e w h e a t
b a s e f o r e a c h fa rm .
4)
The w h e a t a l l o t m e n t f o r e a c h fa rm i s 70 p e r c e n t o f t h e w h eat
base. 18/
5)
H a lf o f t h e c r o p l a n d i s
s u m m e r-fa llo w e d e a c h y e a r .
6)
The d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t h e whfeat a ll o t m e n t and w h e a t b a s e i s
seed ed to b a r le y .
In th e a n a ly s is , o f s u r v iv a l, as p r e v io u s ly d e f in e d > i t i s n e c e s s a ry
t o make a s s u m p tio n s a b o u t t h e fa rm h o u s e h o ld .
For th is
assum ed t h a t t h e h o u s e h o ld c o n s i s t s o f a f a m i l y o f f o u r .
s tu d y i t w i l l b e
T h is f a m i ly
w i l l ' b e t h e w ork f o r c e o f t h e fa rm e x c e p t f o r e x t r a s e a s o n a l l a b o r
re q u ire d f o r h a rv e s tin g .
The h o u s e h o ld e x p e n s e s w i l l b e a t t h e minimum
l e v e l assum ed t o b e r e q u i r e d t o m a in t;a in t h i s s i z e f a m i l y r e g a r d l e s s o f
in co m e s f o r a p a r t i c u l a r y e a r o r i t s m a g n itu d e o f a c c u m u la te d n e t w o r th .
T h ese w i l l b e $ 2 ,3 7 5 f o r .N o r th e a s t s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a and $ 2 ,3 6 0 f o r
th e T ria n g le w in te r w heat a r e a . 1 9 /
18/
Ie R o y C. R u d e, o p . c i t .
1 9 / . Howard W. H j o r t , The Use and E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f F i n a n c i a l and P h y s i c a l
R e s e r v e s i n M o n ta n a 's D ry la n d W heat A re a -. D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r a l
E c o n o m ic s and R u r a l S o c i o lo g y , M o n tan a A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e rim e n t
S t a t i o n , B ozem an, M o n ta n a , A u g u s t, 1959=
CHAPTER I I I
FARMER ATTITUDES TOWARD INSURANCE AND FLAMING
As p r e v i o u s l y m e n tio n e d t h e G uttm an S c a le t e c h n i q u e was Used t o
e s t a b l i s h t h e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd i n s u r a n c e and p l a n n i n g .
a t t i t u d e s t a t e m e n t s a r e l i s t e d b e lo w .
The
I n t h e s c h e d u le e a c h q u e s t i o n was
f o ll o w e d b y an a rr a n g e m e n t w h e r e in t h e e n u m e r a to r c o u ld c h e c k w h e th e r
t h e r e s p o n d e n t a g r e e d o r d i s a g r e e d , and i f t h e r e s p o n s e was q u a l i f i e d .
S p a c e was a l s o p r o v id e d f o r r e c o r d i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e q u a l i f i c a t i o n .
P l a n n in g A t t i t u d e S t a te m e n t s
1.
You c a n p l a n a h e a d a l l r i g h t , b u t y o u u s u a l l y h a v e t o c h a n g e y o u r
p l a n s anyw ay.
2.
You c a n s o m e tim e s p r e v e n t m is t a k e s b y l o o k in g a h e a d a l i t t l e
3.
You s h o u ld a n t i c i p a t e g e n e r a l t h i n g s and n o t t r y t o make p l a n s f o r
t h e f u t u r e i n any g r e a t d e t a i l .
4.
You h a v e t o t h i n k a h e a d on a f a r m .
5.
I t , ' s e n o u g h i f y o u h av e some g e n e r a l i d e a o f w h ere y o u a r e
and how y o u m ig h t go a b o u t g e t t i n g t h e r e .
6.
You s h o u ld c o n s i d e r t h e m o st l i k e l y p o s s i b i l i t i e s and p r e p a r e y o u r ­
s e l f f o r a l l o f th em .
7.
Time
8.
E ven th o u g h t h e r e a r e some t h i n g s t h a t y o u j u s t c a n ' t a n t i c i p a t e
y o u s h o u ld b e a s r e a d y f o r them a s y o u c a n b e .
b it.
g o in g
eno u g h t o w o rry a b o u t n e x t y e a r when i t g e t s h e r e .
I n s u r a n c e A t t i t u d e S t a te m e n t s
1.
You s h o u ld t r y t o p r o t e c t y o u r s e l f b y m eans o t h e r t h a n i n s u r i n g
th e c ro p .
2.
You h a v e so few r e a l l y p o o r c r o p y i e l d s t h a t i n s u r a n c e d o e s n o t
pay f o r i t s e l f .
37 3.
You s h o u ld i n s u r e t h e c r o p i f y o u a r e c o u n ti n g on i t
p r e s s in g d e b ts .
to pay o f f
4.
You s h o u l d n 't t r y t o fa rm on d r y l a n d w i t h o u t i n s u r i n g y o u r c r o p s .
5.
You s h o u ld i n s u r e t h e bum per c r o p s .
6.
As a f a r m e r y o u s h o u ld e x p e c t t o l o s e p a r t o f a c r o p o n c e i n a w h i l e .
7.
You s h o u ld i n s u r e a t a l e v e l t h a t w i l l c o v e r c a s h c o s t s ,
e x p e n s e s , o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , b u t e x c lu d i n g d e p r e c i a t i o n ) .
8.
You s h o u ld c a r r y some k i n d o f r e s e r v e s t o h e lp c o v e r o c c a s i o n a l
p o o r y i e l d s , and n o t i n s u r e y o u r c r o p s .
9.
You s h o u ld u s e i n s u r a n c e on y o u r c r o p s o n ly i n e x tre m e c a s e s .
(liv in g
F a rm e r A t t i t u d e s Tow ard P l a n n in g
The r e s u l t s o f t h e s c a le s - a r e shown i n T a b le s X I t o X V I.
T a b le s XI
t o X I I I a r e t h e p l a n n i n g a t t i t u d e s f o r a l l f a r m e r s and f o r i n s u r a n c e
u s e r s and n o n - i n s u r a n c e u s e r s .
T a b le s XIV t o XVI a r e t h e i n s u r a n c e
a t t i t u d e s f o r t h e same g r o u p s .
As shown i n t h e t a b l e s t h e c o e f f i c i e n t
o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y i s g r e a t e r t h a n .9 0 i n e v e r y c a s e .
A c o e ffic ie n t th is
h i g h s u g g e s t s t h a t s i m i l a r r e s u l t s c o u ld b e r e p r o d u c e d i f t h e q u e s t i o n s
w e re a s k e d a g a in .
T h is a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e q u e s t i o n s h a d t h e same
fra m e o f r e f e r e n c e t o a l l f a r m e r s and w e re on t h e same c o n tin u u m f o r a l l
f a r m e r s , r e g a r d l e s s o f g ro u p .
The b a s i c a t t i t u d e o f f a r m e r s to w a rd p l a n n i n g w as p o s i t i v e .
T h is i s
shown b y t h e num ber o f p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s t o s ta t e m e n t num ber one and b y
t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s i n T a b le X I.
T h is b a s i c a t t i t u d e
w as n o t a l t e r e d i n t h e two s u b - g r o u p s a s e v id e n c e d b y T a b le s X II and
X I I I w h e r e ^ th b ^ s ame r e l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s o b s e r v e d .
T h is p o s i t i v e
— 38 —
TABLE X I . — SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR ALL FARMERS
S c h e d u le
s ta te m e n t
4
2
8
6
7
5
3
1
TOTAL
i
P o s itiv e
:
N e g a tiv e
5
„
e rro rs
: R esoonses S E r r o r s s R esp o n ses % E r ro r s .
Number
Number
Number
Number
Number
P e rce n t
.0
246
4 .5 0
4 .5 0
' 5
1.79
240
.5 0
11
8 .0 0
8 .5 0
3 .3 8
1 .0 0
12
239
7 .1 7
3.2 5
8 .1 7
32
24.72
219
.83
25.55
10.17
9 .2 8
167
84
1 8 .1 7
27.45
10.93
127
23.21
12.93
124
10.28
9 .2 4
26.72
160
91
3 1 .3 8
12.50
4- 66
51
2 6 .3A
200
.0 0
2 6 .3 4
10.49
—----
——
———
155.10
C o e f f i c i e n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 92.3%
TABLE X I I . — SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FCR NON-INSURANCE USERS
S c h e d u le
s t a t em ent
.
4
2
8
6
7
5
3
I
TOTAL
:
P o s itiv e
t
N e g a tiv e
S
J irro rs
$ R esponses : E r ro r s s R esn o n ses 1 E r ro r s .
Number
Number
Number
Number
Number
P e rce n t
.0 0
1
1 .0 0
1 .0 0
94
1.05
.0 0
2
2 .0 0
93
2 .0 0
2.10
.0 0
6
89
3 .8 6
3.6 7
3 .6 7
88
7 .5 2
.83
8.7 8
7
8 .3 5
58
2 .4 8
9 .0 0
12.08
37
11.48
4 .5 0
5.9 8
10.98
51
44
11.03
13.02
56
17.20
39
3.3 3
16.35
68
1 4 .6 7
.0 0
27
14.67
15.44
— — —
— — —
— — —
68.00
C o e f f i c l e n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 91 .1%
a t t i t u d e i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h e v id e n c e o f p l a n n i n g on t h e p a r t o f f a r m e r s .
T h e re a r e s e v e r a l e x a m p le s w h ic h show t h i s .
One ex am p le i s t h e p l a n n i n g
o f t h e i r f a r m in g o p e r a t i o n s b o t h f o r t h e p r e s e n t and f u t u r e b y s t r i p
f a r m in g .
T h is b a s i c p a t t e r n o f a l t e r n a t i n g b e tw e e n s u m m e r-fa llo w and c r o p
-
39 -
TABLE X I I I . — SOALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE USEES
S c h e d u le
s
P o s itiv e
:
N e g a tiv e
s
n rro rs
s R esp o n ses * E r r o r s s R esponses s E r r o r s s
Number
Number
Number
Number
Number
.0 0
152
3 .5 0
3 .5 0
4
1.39 '
.5 0
6.0 0
6 .5 0
147
9
2 .5 8
150
1.00
6
3 .5 0
4 .5 0
1.79
.0 0
17.20
17.20
131
25
6 .8 5
6.80
109
6 .3 6
47
9 .1 7
15.97
83
4.-30
5.03
8.33
73
12.63
13x70
52
104
5 .9 8
1.33
15.03
132
24
.0 0
1 1 .6 7
1 1 .6 7
Z,. 64
—
--—— 8 7 .0 0
C o e f f i c i e n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 9 1 .1 $
I
RtatAmAnt
4
2
■ 8
6
7
5
3
I
TOTAL
is
a d h e re d t o b y m o st f a r m e r s i n t h e tw o a r e a s s t u d i e d .
O th e r e x a m p les a r e
t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n a llo w a n c e , f o r m a c h in e r y r e p la c e m e n t and p l a n n i n g f o r
fa m ily l i v i n g e x p e n d itu re s .
T e s t i n g P l a n n in g A t t i t u d e s f o r A s s o c i a t i o n
The p l a n n i n g a t t i t u d e s o f t h e f a r m e r s w e re com pared w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s
t o d e te r m in e a s s o c i a t i o n .
T h ese f a c t o r s w e re ; I ) y e a r s o f fa rm e x p e r i e n c e ,
2) t e n a n c y , 3 ) e d u c a t i o n , 4 ) t h e v a lu e o f t h e f a r m , 5J n e t w o r th p o s i t i o n ,
6 ) u s e o f c r e d i t , ? ) g r o s s fa rm in c o m e , 8) o f f - f a r m in c o m e , 9) c ro p a c r e s ,
10) b u s h e l s o f w h e a t n e e d e d t o c o v e r c a s h o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s , 1 1 ) w h e th e r
o r n o t a c r e d i t o r h ad a s k e d him t o c a r r y c r o p i n s u r a n c e , and 12) w h e th e r o r
n o t he k e p t r e c o r d s .
I t was f o u n d t h a t o f t h e s e 12 f a c t o r s , e d u c a t i o n , u s e o f c r e d i t , g r o s s
fa rm in co m e , w h e th e r o r n o t t h e c r e d i t o r h ad a s k e d th em t o u s e c ro p
i n s u r a n c e , and c r o p a c r e s , w e re t h e o n ly o n e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
- 40 ~
p la n n in g a t t i t u d e s .
The c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e f o r e a c h o f t h e s e e x c e e d e d t h e
t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e a t t h e .0 5 s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l .
T h e se v a l u e s w i l l b e
fo u n d i n A p p e n d ix A.
W h ile no p r e c i s e v a lu e c a n b e o b t a i n e d f o r t h e am ount o f a s s o c i a t i o n
b e tw e e n p l a n n i n g and e a c h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s , l o g i c a l l y t h e u s e o f c r e d i t ,
num ber o f c r o p a c r e s , and am ount o f e d u c a t i o n s h o u ld h a v e some i n f l u e n c e on
t h e f a r m e r 1s a t t i t u d e to w a rd p l a n n i n g .
I t is
s i g n i f i c a n t t o n o t e t h a t y i e l d n e e d e d i n o r d e r t o m eet c a s h
o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s , t h e t e n u r e p o s i t i o n , and y e a r s o f f a r m in g e x p e r ie n c e
w e re n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e to w a rd
p la n n in g .
F a r m e r ’ s A t t i t u d e s Toward C rop I n s u r a n c e
On t h e o t h e r hand f a r m e r s h a d a n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e to w a rd i n s u r a n c e . ■
T h is i s shown b y t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s i n T a b le XlV w h e re t h e r e
a r e few p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s i n t h e l a s t c o lu m n .
T h is d i s t r i b u t i o n h o ld s
f o r b o t h s u b - g r o u p s a s shown b y T a b le s XV and XVI.
One o f t h e c a u s e s f o r
t h i s n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e may b e s u g g e s te d t o b e t h e c o s t o f t h e i n s u r a n c e .
I n t h i s c a s e f a r m e r s may f e e l t h a t t h e c o s t in v o lv e d i s t o o g r e a t f o r t h e '
b e n e f its d e riv e d .
A n o th e r s u g g e s te d c a u s e i s p a s t e x p e r i e n c e w i t h h a i l -
l o s s a d ju s tm e n ts .
I n t h e e a r l y h i s t o r y o f a d ju s tm e n t^ t h e y w e re made on
a r a t h e r c ru d e b a s i s .
- 4 1 -
TABtE IV . -S O A tG G R A M A M A tTSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR ALL FARMERS
S c h e d u le
:
P o s itiv e
:
N e g a tiv e
s ta te m e n t . : R esponses! : E r r o r s : R esn o n ses s E r r o r s
Number
Number
Number
Number
.00
3
32
1 7 .5 0
219
2 .5 0
7
62
189
22.67
80
5
171
7 /8 3
1 5 .9 4
1 7 .1 6
9
137
.114
7 .3 4
8
ISO
71
1 1 .1 6
6.49
2
68
1 9 .8 4
183
2.9 9
I
218
2 2.68
33
2.33
12
230
.0 0
6
7 .6 7
TOTAL
C o e f f i c i e n t o f R e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 91.8%
E rro rs
Number
1 7 .5 0
25.17
23.77
24.50
P e rce n t
6.97
10.02
9»47
9 .7 6
1 7 .6 5
7 .0 3
22.83
2 3 .0 1
9 .0 9 .
9 .9 6
3.05
7 .6 7
1 6 4 .1 0
TABLE V.._ . — SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE USERS
S c h e d u le
s ta t e m e n t
3
7
5
9
8
2
I
6
TOTAL
.
.
'"t
:
N e g a tiv e
:
t,
P o s itiv e
m rro rs
I R esp o n ses : E r ro r s : R esnonses s E r ro r s
Number
Number
P e rce n t
Number
Number
Im a b sr'
.0 0
8 .0 0
8.00
142
5,1 2
14
1 .0 0
128
1 0 .6 8
P8
1 5 .6 7
1 6 .6 7
122
1 5 .6 2
3.83
1 0 .0 4
1 1 .8 4
34 ■
4 .6 6
52
8 .2 2
104
1 2 .8 3
3.67
58
1 1 .8 2 '
3 .1 6
98
8 .6 6
7 .5 6
102
1 6 .0 0
2 .6 6
1 3 .3 3 .
10.25
54
1 7 .0 1
130
26
1 .8 3
1 2 .0 7
1 8 .8 4
8
1Z.8 ■
.0 0
5 ,1 7
3 .3 1
5 .1 7
--- —
—
—
1 0 5 .0 0
C o e f f i c i e n t o f R e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 9 1 . 6%
— 42 —
TABLE TL . — SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR NON-INSURANCE USERS
S c h e d u le
s ta t e m e n t
3
7
5
9
B
2 ■
1
6
TOTAL
S
P o s itiv e
:
' N e g a tiv e
:
E rro rs
i R esponses z E r ro r s s R esp o n ses z E rro rs s
Number
Number
Number
Number
Number
P e rce n t
.0 0
77
18
9 .5 0
9 .5 0
1 0 .0 0
61
1 .5 0
7.0 0
8 .5 0
34
8 .9 4
4 .0 0
48
4 .0 0
' 8 .0 0
47
8 .4 2
32
8 .0 0
63
3 .6 7
1 1 .6 7
12.28
SI
14
3.33
2.5 0
5.8 3
6.13
6 .5 0
82
13
.3 3
7 .1 8
6.8 3
88
7
.50
4 .6 7
5 .1 7 •
5 .4 4
2 . 5 0 _______ 92 _
.0 0
2:50
2.63
— 3. . .
58.00
C o e f f i c i e n t o f R e p r o d u c i b i l i t y = 92.4%
The same f a c t o r s u s e d t o d e te r m in e a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h p l a n n i n g a t t i t u d e s
w e re u s e d t o d e te r m in e a s s o c i a t i o n i n i n s u r a n c e a t t i t u d e s .
I t was fo u n d
t h a t t h e s e w e re n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i n s u r a n c e a t t i t u d e s .
F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f b u d g e ts g i v e s some
i n d i c a t i o n o f why f a r m e r s h a v e t h i s n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e .
e x p la i n e d i n C h a p te r V.
T h is w i l l be
CHAPTER IV
FARMER'S EVALUATION OF CROP INSURANCE AND HAZARDS FACED
F a rm e r E v a l u a t i o n o f C r o p . I n s n r a n n e
The p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s t e c h n i q u e , a s p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d , was u se d
i n t h i s s tu d y t o e s t a b l i s h an e s t i m a t i o n o f c r o p and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e
w i t h r e s p e c t t o s i x o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s f a r m e r s may u s e f o r
s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm in co m e .
The a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s w e re ; l )
s to re d g r a in
.<
and f e e d , 2 ) c a s h , s t o c k s , and b o n d s , 3 ) b e l t t i g h t e n i n g , 4 ) s h o r t - t e r m
c r e d i t , 5 ) o f f - f a r m j o b s , and 6) d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g .
I t was f o u n d i n t e s t i n g t h e s e s e v e n ite m s f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t s c a l e t h a t
t h e r e w as no e v id e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g b e lo n g e d on t h e
same c o n tin u u m a s t h e o t h e r s i x so i t w as e l i m i n a t e d fro m t h e m a t r i x .
T h e re a r e s e v e r a l r e a s o n s t o s u p p o r t t h i s e l i m i n a t i o n .
The f i r s t i s t h a t
f a r m e r s do n o t c o n s i d e r d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g an a l t e r n a t i v e e v e n th o u g h
i n t h e a g g r e g a te t h e y m ig h t p r e f e r t o u s e t h i s m ethod i f i t w e re a v a i l a b l e
t o th em .
The s e c o n d , t h e sa m p le was d raw n fro m d r y la n d g r a i n f a r m e r s .
T h e r e f o r e , v e r y few o f t h e f a r m e r s w e re i n a p o s i t i o n t o u s e t h i s a l t e r n a ­
tiv e .
The t h i r d r e a s o n , w h ic h i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o b o t h o f t h e p r e c e d in g
o n e s, i s t h a t as t h i s i s
a d r y la n d f a r m in g a r e a and m ost o f t h e la n d i s
b e i n g fa rm e d t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e
la n d a v a ila b le f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d o p e ra tio n
such as a g r a in - liv e s to c k e n te r p r i s e .
E c o n o m ic a lly , g r a i n f a r m e r s a r e
u n lik e ly to d i v e r s i f y in to a g r a in liv e s to c k o p e ra tio n b e c a u se o f th e
- 44 ~
o p p o rtu n ity c o s t o f t h i s - s h i f t , l /
m ore fro m t h e i r g r a i n o p e r a t i o n .
F a rm e rs r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e y c a n make
S h i f t s to o th e r ty p e s o f e n te r p r i s e s a re
lik e w is e u n a t t r a c t i v e as th e la c k o f in e x p e n s iv e w a te r i n th e s e a re a s l i m i t s
w hat fa rm e rs c an d o.
W ith d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g e l i m i n a t e d a s i g n i f i c a n t
s c a l e w as d e v e lo p e d u s in g , t h e r e m a in in g s i x i te m s .
shown i n T a b le X V II.
The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a r e
The g ro u p o f a l l f a r m e r s was s u b - d i v i d e d b y ; 1) a r e a
and 2 ) i n s u r a n c e u s e .
U s in g K e n d a l l 's c o e f f i c i e n t o f a g re e m e n t a s a b a s i s f o r ju d g m e n t,
T a b le X V II i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s u b - g r o u p s i n s u r a n c e u s e r and n o n - in s u r a n c e
u s e r g i v e s a m ore m e a n in g f u l r a n k t h a n t h e s u b - g r o u p s b y a r e a .
T h is i s
s u b s t a n t i a t e d b y c o m p a rin g t h e r a n k s i n F i g u r e 2 w h ic h show s t h e s c a l e
s e p a ra tio n s o f th e ra n k s .
The r a n k s f o r t h e i n s u r a n c e u s e r s u b -g r o u p s
a r e w e l l d e f i n e d , t h e r e b e in g a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n e a c h o f
t h e a l t e r n a t i v e m e th o d s .
o f th e a lte r n a tiv e s
(s h o r-te rm c r e d i t )
F o r t h e s u b - g r o u p s b y a r e a t h e r e i s a g r o u p in g
'
( c a s h , s t o c k s , and b o n d s ) , ( c r o p i n s u r a n c e ) , and
i n th e T ria n g le w in te r w heat a re a .
I n th e N o rth e a s t
s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a we f i n d t h e f a r m e r s i n d i f f e r e n t a s t o c r o p i n s u r a n c e
and b e l t t i g h t e n i n g ( t h e d i f f e r e n c e h e r e b e in g . 0 0 1 ) . .
I n a l l g ro u p s t h e f a r m e r s p r e f e r r e d t o u se s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d ,
a s t h e m eth o d o f s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm in c o m e , o v e r e v e ry o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e
l/
C h a r le s A. C a rp y , I n d u c in g S h i f t s From C rop P r o d u c ti o n t o B e e f on
D ry la n d F arm s i n M o n ta n a . ' U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e ,
A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e , Farm E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n ,
i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h M ontana A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e rim e n t S t a t i o n , D e p a rtm e n t
o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E co n o m ics and R u r a l S o c i o lo g y , B ozem an, M ontana,
A u g u s t, 1 9 5 7 , p . 3 1 . U n p u b lis h e d .
- 44 TABIE X V II .— RANK ORDER AM) STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE METHODS
OF PROTECTION
3
/
S to re d g r a in & fe e d
C a sh , s t o c k s & b o n d s
C rop i n s u r a n c e
B e lt tig h te n in g
S h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
O ff-fa rm jo b s
----- ------------------------ . ■■ -- 1
A ll.fa r m e rs
N. E . a r e a ;
T ria n g le a re a
In s . u se rs
N o n - in s . u s e r s
Number o f r e s p o n d e n t s .
G roups t e s t e d
R ank o r d e r
251
112
137
155
94
1
I
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
3
2
6
4
3
5
5
3
5
6
4
4
4
6
5
6
6
5
S t a t i s t i c a l e v a lu a tio n
Cm
0
U
1
cS .
q +3
d
IO)
u
bOcd
0 ) CD
i— I * H
S
O
IO
'S3 °
>
g
rS
cS
(Dm
6
i° -
CD
CD
1B
I
rD
!> CD
l
% Td ^
td CT1
y ?
CD
O
O
- .0 0 3 9 8 3 7 5 .3 9
-.00901 2 6 8 .2 6
- .0 0 7 3
2 4 7 .4 8
- .0 0 6 5
2 8 0 .5
.200 - .0 1 0 8 3 0 0 .9 9
.0 9 6
.1 5 0
.0 9 9
.5 4 7
to
CD d
I
CD
CD
&
Ii
CD
n 6~i
15
15
15
15
15
25
25
25
25
25
U3
.0005
.0005
.0005
.0005
.0005
T h is i s fo u n d b y t h e f o r m u la - 1 /m i f m i s odd and - I /{ m - 1 ) i f m i s
even.
T h e se a r e d i s c u s s e d on p a g e 2 6 .
m e th o d .
T h is p r e f e r e n c e i s v e r y s t r o n g i n e v e r y r a n k a s shown by t h e
s e p a r a t i o n s b e tw e e n s t o r e d g r a i n and t h e s e c o n d p l a c e a l t e r n a t i v e .
The
s e c o n d c h o ic e w as c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s f o r e v e ry g ro u p e x c e p t t h e
i n s u r a n c e u p e r s who p l a c e d c ro p i n s u r a n c e i n se c o n d p l a c e .
T h is w ould
i n d i c a t e t h a t f a r m e r s p r e f e r t o c a r r y t h e i r own i n s u r a n c e i n s t e a d o f
s h i f t i n g t h e u n c e r t a i n t y t o som eone e l s e and i f p o s s i b l e t h e y w ould
p r e f e r to c a rry i t
as s to re d g r a in .
T h is may b e one o f t h e r e a s o n s f o r
t h e f a r m e r s ' n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e to w a rd c r o p i n s u r a n c e , h o w ev er no a tte m p t
w as.m ad e t o m e a s u re t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e r a n k o r d e r s c a l e s and
th e a tt it u d e s c o re s to v e r if y t h i s .
Al I farm ers
N o rth e a s t
s t o r e d g r a i n and
_ L J 02
fee d
T ria n g le
.9 3 7 s t o r e d
g r a i n and f e e d
.8 6 8 s t o r e d g r a i n
and f e e d
In su ran ce u se rs
N o n - in s , u s e r s
1.2 0 1 s t o r e d
g r a i n and f e e d
.8 9 2 s t o r e d g r a i n
and f e e d
.6 7 7 c a s h
bonds
1
Ul
I
c ro p in s u ra n c e
c a sh , s to c k s ,
349 and b o n d s
c ro p
in s u ra n c e
b e lt tig h te n in g
_ J6 1
^ 1 3 2 s h o r t te rm
c re d it
c a s h , s t o c k s , and
403
bonds
b e lt tig h te n in g
c ro p
in s u ra n c e
0 .0 o f f fa rm jo b s 0 .0 o f f fa rm lo b s
F ig u re 2.
b e l t t i g h t m ing
.4 0 4
50
bonds
,c ro p i n s u r a n c e
-4
s h o r t te rm
$3
c re d it
.0 8 0 b e l t
tig h te n in g
0 .0 o f f fa rm jo b s
S c a l e S e p a r a t i o n s f o r A l t e r n a t i v e s b y G roups
bonds
.1 9 5 s h o r t te rm
c re d it
b e lt tig h te n in g
.0 9 5
0 . 0 o f f farm jo b s
s h o r t te rm
.1 5 4
c re d it
.1 3 7 o f f fa rm
0 . 0 1n .q n r .q nr *p>
- 4-6 -
F a r m e r 's E v a l u a t i o n o f T ypes o f H a z a rd s F a c e d
I n o r d e r t o d e te r m in e w h ic h ty p e o f h a z a r d f a r m e r s w ould r a t h e r i n s u r e
a g a i n s t , t h e y w e re a s k e d t o r a n k ( th r o u g h p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s ) s i x d i f f e r e n t
c o n tin g e n t f a c t o r s .
T h e se w e re ; 1) d r o u t h , 2 ) h a i l , 3 ) w i n t e r k i l l , 4 )
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e , 5) w ind and f l o o d i n g and 6) a l l r i s k s .
t h e i r im p o r ta n c e i s
shown i n T a b le X V III.
in s u r e a g a in s t a l l r i s k s ' in e v e ry c a s e .
The o r d e r o f
The f a r m e r s w o u ld p r e f e r t o
D r o u th and h a i l w e re t h e n e x t
TABLE X V I I I .— R A H ORDER AND STATISTICAL EVALUATION FOR HAZARDS FACED
BY FARMERS
D e g r e e s o f fre e d o m
T a b u la te d v a lu e o f
c h i-s q u a re
S i g n i f i c a n t beyond
C a l c u l a t e d v a lu e o f
c h i-s q u a re
4
5
6
.308 -.0 2 2 7 2 2 8 7 .1
15
25
.000$
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
4
6
4
5
5
2
3
Minimum l e v e l f o r
c o e ffic ie n t ^ /
W ind & f l o o d i n g
25
25
.0005
.000$
.000$
.000$
.000$
.000$
.000$
.000$
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
'W
C o e ffic ie n t o f
a g re e m e n t
In s e c t & d is e a s e
15
15
15
15
15
2
15
15
W in te r k i l l
.819 -.0043. 2854.9
.3 6 4 -.0 1 0 8 527.8
.368 -.0 0 7 3 776.76
.409 -.0 0 6 5 972.85
.2 8 9 -.0 1 0 8 .421.92
.542 -.0161 2 1 4 .2
.379 -.0 2 0 8 300.3
.416 -.0 1 0 8 595.5
D r o u th
A ll r i s k s
6
5
6
6
6
4
5
6
25
6
4
5
4
5
4
4
3
4
5
W
H
S t a t i s t i c a l e v a lu a tio n
i
G roups t e s t e d
Number o f r e s p o n d e n t s
Rank o r d e r
230 1
A ll farm ers
N .E . a r e a
93 '1
T ria n g le a re a
137 I
I n s . u se rs
155 1
N o n - in s . u s e r s
94 I
N .E . I n s . u s e r
63 N .E .N o n - in s . u s e r 49 1
T r i a n g l e I n s u s e r 92 I
T r i a n g l e N o n -in s
user
45 I
a/
-
25
25
25
25
6
T h is i s fo u n d b y t h e f o r m u la - i / m i f m i s odd and -1I / ( m - 1 ) i f m i s
even.
T h e se a r e d i s c u s s e d on p a g e 2 6 .
- 47 -
m o st im p o r ta n t i n t h a t o r d e r , f o r t h e g r o u p s a l l f a r m e r s , N o r t h e a s t s p r i n g
w h e a t a r e a . T r i a n g l e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a , i n s u r a n c e u s e r s and n o n --in s u ra n c e
u se rs.
When t h e s e g ro u p s w e re t e s t e d f o r i n t e r n a l c o n s i s t e n c y i t w as fo u n d t h a t
o n ly t h e g r o u p s a l l f a r m e r s . T r i a n g l e a r e a and n o n - i n s u r a n c e u s e r s w ere
c o n s is t e n t i n t h e i r ju d g in g .
' F o r t h i s r e a s o n i t was d e c id e d t o f u r t h e r
d i v i d e t h e g ro u p s i n t o i n s u r a n c e u s e b y a r e a .
T h is d i d n o t a l t e r t h e
r a n k s e x c e p t f o r t h e i n s u r a n c e u s e r s i n t h e N o r t h e a s t s p r i n g w h eat a r e a .
T h is f u r t h e r s u b d i v i s i o n f a i l e d t o y i e l d a s i g n i f i c a n t r a n k f o r t h i s g ro u p
b u t when t h e d i s c r i m i n a l d i s p e r s i o n s w e re c a l c u l a t e d t h e y show ed t h a t
n e i t h e r a l l r i s k s n o r w i n t e r k i l l b e lo n g i n t h e r a n k .
E lim in a tin g th e s e
fro m t h e m a t r i x y i e l d e d a s i g n i f i c a n t r a n k and s c d i e .
T h is i n d i c a t e s t h a t
t h e f a r m e r s i n t h e N o r t h e a s t a r e a do n o t c o n s i d e r a l l r i s k s a h a z a r d t o
i n s u r e a g a i n s t , p r e f e r r i n g t o i n s u r e f o r t h e s e p a r a t e c o n ti n g e n c y .
I t is
n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t t h i s g ro u p r e j e c t e d w i n t e r k i l l a s a h a z a r d a s
c o m p a r a t i v e l y few o f t h e f a r m e r s p l a n t w i n t e r w h e a t, w h ic h i s s u b j e c t t o
w in te r k i l l ,
and t h e r e f o r e had no b a s i s f o r j u d g in g .
The s c a l e s e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e s u b - g r o u p s a r e shown i n F i g u r e s 3 and 4 .
The s c a l e s e p a r a t i o n s b e tw e e n d r o u t h and h a i l f o r t h e s u b - g r o u p N o r t h e a s t
i n s u r a n c e u s e r s show s t h a t t h e s e f a r m e r s a r e a lm o s t i n d i f f e r e n t a s t o w h ic h
i s m o st i m p o r t a n t .
T h e - s c a le s e p a r a t i o n i s o n ly .0 0 5 .
F u r th e r in s p e c tio n
o f F i g u r e 3 show s t h a t t h i s i n d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n h a i l and d r o u t h a ls o
h o l d s f o r t h e two g r o u p s , T r i a n g l e i n s u r a n c e u s e r s and a l l f a r m e r s .
n o n - i n s u r a n q e u s e r s i n b o t h a r e a s c l e a r l y s e p a r a t e d t h e tw o .
The
- 48 —
1.7' A l l
16
farm ers
T ria n p le
1 .7 1 8 a l l
ris k s
_lo.576
«5
N o rth e a s t
a ll ris k s
J-^ 3
1 .5 5 0 d r o u t h
.1 .4 7 7 h a i l
1.44 L 3 7 4
d r o u th
I n s u r a n c e u s e r N o n - in s . u s e r
1 .7 8 9
a ll ris k s
I .5 2 3 d r o u t h
I .4 6 6 h a i l
_ L J 6 8 d r o u th
1 .3 3 0 h a i l
a ll ris k s
1 .2 8 6
1 .3 2 6 h a i l
U
I .2 2 3 d r o u th
=12
O
" m.
O
WW
O
Q.$
W
.9 1 2 h a i l
*4
_,.748 w i n t e r
k ill
x7
-x6
O
__l 653
w in te r k i l l
-64/, i n s e c t
and d i s e a s e
° 5
in
i n s e c t and
— 457 d i s e a s e
.4
.3
i n s e c t and
.3 3 8 d i s e a s e
.4 3 5 w i n t e r
k ill
w in te r k i l l
»291|
i n s e c t and
__^232 d i s e a s e
i n s e c t and
__, 2 7 3 d is e a s e
.aS
j . w ind and
OiiSFn O fI c o d in g
F ig u re 3 .
w in d and
0 .0 f l o o d i n g
i
w ind and
^ l 84 f l o o d i n g w ind and
n n winSf3Ti
n n flo o d in g
S c a le S e p a r a t i o n s f o r H a z a rd s by G ro u p s.
w ind and
0 .0 f l o o d i n g
- 49 -
N o r t h e a s t S p r in g W heat A rea
T r i a n g l e W in te r W heat A re a
In su r a n c e u se r
N o n -in su r a n c e u sei
In su r a n c e u se r N o n -in su r a n c e u sagj 1 . 9 15 d r o u th
1 .9 1 0 a l l r i s k s
910 h a i l
Io 566
a ll ris k s
1 . 5 13
d r o u th
I .4 9 9 d r o u th
I -4 6 5 h a i l
1 .4 9 7 a l l r i s k s
I .3 4 4 d r o u th
c
°I3
1 .2 0 6 h a i l
o l2
W
O Il
o.
1 .0 3 3 h a i l
w
.831 w i n t e r k i l l
•, 8.7 2 8 w i n t e r k i l l
.6 7 9
o
<n
6
i n s e c t and
d is e a s e
.6 1 3 i n s e c t and
d is e a s e
4l
- I
w ind and
PO 0 .0 f l o o d i n g
F ig u re 4-
.3 3 0 w ind and
flo o d in g
0 .0 w i n t e r k i l l
.381 i n s e c t and
d ise a s e
.3 1 7 i n s e c t and
0.0
w ind and
f lo o d i n g
S c a l e S e p a r a t i o n s f o r H a z a rd s by G ro u p s.
„ „
0 .0
. S E e SgS
flo o d in g
— 50 —
The s c a l e s e p a r a t i o n s and r a n k s i n b o t h F i g u r e s 3 and 4 s u g g e s t t h a t
f a r m e r s i n g e n e r a l w o u ld p r e f e r t o i n s u r e a g a i n s t a l l r i s k s i f an a d e q u a te
p o l i c y w e re a v a i l a b l e .
The n o n - in s u r a n c e u s e r s i n t h e N o r t h e a s t s p r i n g
w h e a t r e g i o n r a n k e d a l l r i s k s and d r o u t h v e r y c l o s e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n
c o n t r a s t t o t h e i n s u r a n c e u s e r s , w h ic h w o u ld s u g g e s t t h a t t h e y c o n s i d e r
a l l r i s k s a s c o n s i s t i n g p r i m a r i l y o f "an ,u n c e r t a i n t y to w a rd d r o u t h .
T h is
g ro u p a l s o r a n k e d w i n t e r k i l l i n l a s t p l a c e , t h e o b v io u s r e a s o n f o r t h i s
b e in g t h e same a s t h e i n s u r a n c e u s e r s f o r t h i s a r e a .
A few s t a t e m e n t s s h o u ld b e made a b o u t t h e l a s t p l a c e i te m i n t h e
o t h e r t h r e e g ro u p s i n F i g u r e 3 .
W ind and f l o o d i n g a r e r e l a t i v e l y u n im p o r­
t a n t t o t h e f a r m e r s o f M o n tan a.
E v en th o u g h t h e r e i s no way f a r m e r s c a n
p r o t e c t t h e m s e lv e s fro m t h e s e c o n t i n g e n c i e s , f l o o d i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r
r a r e ly o c c u rs.
When i t d o e s , i t
i s l i k e l y t o damage o n ly t h a t p o r t i o n o f
t h e c r o p i n low a r e a s o f t h e f i e l d .
A s t r o n g w ind w i l l dam age t h e t o t a l
f ie ld ."
F a rm e rs w i l l t e l l y o u t h a t i n s e c t s and d i s e a s e a r e no l o n g e r a
p ro b le m and i f
a f a r m e r o p e r a t e s p r o p e r l y he w i l l p r o t e c t h i m s e l f a g a i n s t
t h e s e t h r o u g h s p r a y i n g and d i s e a s e - r e s i s t a n t s t r a i n s .
T h is c o u ld b e one
r e a s o n f o r t h e low p l a c i n g o f i n s e c t and d i s e a s e i n a l l g r o u p s .
CHAPTER V
ADEQUACY CE CROP INSURANCE
The e f f e c t o f t h e u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e on c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n and
s t a b i l i t y o f in co m e w as a n a ly z e d t h r o u g h t h e u se o f b u d g e t s .
t a k e n fro m s t a t e l e a s e d a t a w e re u s e d .
Y i e ld s e r i e s
They w e re f o r s p e c i f i c t r a c t s o f
s t a t e l a n d o v e r a 1 7 -2 0 y e a r p e r i o d and w e re on a s e e d e d - a c r e b a s i s .
Two
s e r i e s fro m e a c h S h e r id a n C o u n ty and F e r g u s C ou n ty w e re s e l e c t e d fro m a
num ber o f a v a i l a b l e s e r i e s . I /
a r e a a v e r a g e s w e re u s e d .
T hose s e r i e s w i t h a v e r a g e s c l o s e s t t o t h e i r
The a r e a a v e r a g e f o r t h e N o r t h e a s t s p r i n g w h e a t
r e g i o n i s 13 b u s h e l s and f o r t h e T r i a n g l e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a i t
i s 2 0 .2 . 2 /
B u d g e ts w e re d e s ig n e d t o d e te r m in e n e t f a r m incom e f o r f o u r fa rm s i z e s
u s in g no i n s u r a n c e , u s i n g o n ly a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e , u s in g o n ly c r o p - h a i l
i n s u r a n c e , and u s in g b o t h a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e .
T h is
i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l be. f o u n d i n A p p e n d ix C.
B o th t h e prem ium a n d l e v e l o f c o v e r a g e f o r a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e v a r y
b e tw e e n c o u n t i e s ' so an a v e r a g e f i g u r e f o r e a c h a r e a i n t h e s tu d y was
u sed<
T h is m eans t h a t t h e r e s u l t s a r e n o t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f any one
c o u n ty b u t o f e a c h a r e a .
The e x p e n s e s p e r a c r e , s i z e o f f a r m , prem ium ,
and c o v e ra g e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r e a c h a r e a a p p e a r i n T a b le s XIX and XX.
l/
T h ese y i e l d s e r i e s w e re s e l e c t e d fro m S t a t e l e a s e d a t a b y Howard H j o r t
f o r u s e i n h i s t h e s i s . The U se and E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f F i n a n c i a l and
P h y s i c a l R e s e r v e s i n M o n ta n a 's D r y la n d W heat A r e a . D e p a rtm e n t
o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E co n o m ics and R u r a l S o c i o lo g y , M o n tan a A g r i c u l t u r a l
E x p e rim e n t S t a t i o n , B ozem an, M o n tana, A u g u s t, 1959. U n p u b lis h e d .
£/
LeRoy R ude,
- 52 —
T iB tE .2IX o— BIE)GET INF0RM6.TI0N FOR FARMS IN THE SPRING WHEAT AREA FOR
THE FOUR FARM SIZES s /
I te m
C ro p la n d
Sum m er-f a llo w
W heat s e e d e d
B a r le y s e e d e d
T o ta l c a sh ex p en ses
T o ta l d e p r e c ia tio n
E x p en ses p e r a c re b /
No i n s u r a n c e
I n c lu d in g a l l - r i s k in s u ra n c e
In c lu d in g S t a t e H a il in s u ra n c e
I n c l u d i n g A L l - r i s k and
S ta te H a il in s u ra n c e & /
S i z e o f farm ( t o t a l a c r e s )
1200
880
1700.
A c re s
Aqjcss
A c rss
800
1156
1640
384
AOO
192
134
38
D o lla rs
1 5 8 2 .0 0
8 8 3 . 00
400
280
. 120
578
405
820
574
246
173
D o lla rs
4 8 1 2 .0 0
D o lla rs
D s lla x s
2652.00
1438.00
3598.00
1981.00
5.11
6 .7 5
5.77
5.4 4
4 .8 3
5.4 9
5.1 7
4 .4 9
5.15
4 .8 3
7 .4 1
6 .1 0
5.83
5.49
6 .4 2
7 .0 8
2506.00
a,/
D a t a f o r a l l c o s t e x c e p t i n s u r a n c e w as o b t a i n e d fro m Ie R o y R ude, o p . c i t .
b/
T h is i n c l u d e s t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s and t h e p e r a c r e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a rg e
a s i n t h e l o n g r u n i t i s n e e d e d f o r m a c h in e ry r e p l a c e m e n t.
0. /
The
The
The
The
The
prem ium c o s t p e r a c r e f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
f i x e d in d e m n ity p e r b u s h e l f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
maximum in d e m n ity p e r a c r e f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
c o v e ra g e p e r a c r e f o r S t a t e H a i l i n s u r a n c e
c o s t p e r a c re f o r S ta te H a il in s u ra n c e
$>
1 .7 8
1 .8 8
1 4 .8 2
1 2 .0 0
0 .9 6 1
-
53 -
TABLE XX.--BUDGET INFORMATION FOR FARMS IN THE WINTER WHEAT AREA FOR
THE FOUR FARM SIZES a /
I te m
------- Sl ae-P.T- £.arm . f .to t a L -ac .re's)
C ro p la n d
S u m m e r-fa llo w
W heat s e e d e d
B a r le y s e e d e d
A c re s
A c re s
384
192
800
400280
120
134
58
T o ta l c a sh ex p en ses
T o ta l d e p r e c ia tio n
E xpenses p e r a c re b /
No i n s u r a n c e
I n c lu d in g a l l - r i s k in s u ra n c e
In c lu d in g S ta te H a il in s u ra n c e
I n c l u d i n g a l l - r i s k and S t a t e
H a i l i n s u r a n c e q. /
A c re s
1156
A g^es
1640
578
405
820
574
246
173
D o lla rs
D o lla rs .
D o lla rs
D o lla rs
1526.00
1307.00
2635.00
2039.00
3695.00
2 4 1 3 .0 0
4956:00
3263.00
7 .3 7
7 .9 0
7 .6 2
5 .8 4
6.3 7
6.09
5 .29
5 .8 2
5 .5 4
5 .0 4
.5.58
5 .2 9
8 .1 5
6 .6 2
. 6.0 7
5.83
s/
A l l c o s t i n f o r m a t i o n e x c e p t i n s u r a n c e w as o b t a i n e d fro m LeRoy R ude,
op., c i t . .
b/
T h is i n c l u d e s t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s and t h e p e r a c r e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a rg e
a s i n t h e lo n g r u n i t i s n e e d e d f o r m a c h in e ry r e p l a c e m e n t.
S ./
The
The
The
The
The
-
prem ium c o s t p e r a c r e f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
f i x e d in d e m n ity p e r b u s h e l f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
maximum in d e m n ity p e r a c r e f o r F e d e r a l C rop i n s u r a n c e
p e r a c re c o v e ra g e f o r S t a te H a il in s u ra n c e
c o s t p e r a c re f o r S t a te H a il in s u ra n c e
I
1 .5 6
1.78
,
1 6 .8 7 ■
12.00
0 .7 2
U se o f Y i e l d S e r i e s w i t h A l l - r i s k I n e n r a n c o
The l e v e l o f a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e c o v e r a g e u s e d was 7 . 9 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e
f o r t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a and 9 .5 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e f o r t h e w i n t e r w h eat
a re a .
T h e re i s l i t t l e
d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n n e t farm ' incom e u s i n g a l l - r i s k
i n s u r a n c e and u s in g no i n s u r a n c e .
y ie ld s e rie s .
T h is i s t r u e f o r a l l f a r m s i n a l l
I n t h e a g g r e g a te f a r m e r s c a n e x p e c t t h e c o s t o f t h e .
- 54 ~
i n s u r a n c e t o e x c e e d t h e b e n e f i t s fro m t h a t i n s u r a n c e o v e r a lo n g - r u n
p e rio d .
W ith t h e y i e l d s e r i e s u s e d i n t h i s s tu d y , w h ic h h ad low y i e l d s
d u r i n g - t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s , t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n n e t fa rm incom e
u s in g i n s u r a n c e and n o t u s in g i n s u r a n c e w as l a r g e l y t h e c o s t o f th e
i n s u r a n c e . ' The u s e o f i n s u r a n c e h a s t h e a f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g t h e n e t
fa r m incom e i n low y i e l d y e a r s and d e c r e a s i n g i t b y t h e c o s t o f
in s u ra n c e o th e r y e a r s .
As shown i n F i g u r e s 2 - 5 , t h e u s e o f i n s u r a n c e
r a i s e s t h e a c c u m u la te d g r o s s s a v in g s a t t h e b e g in n in g o f t h e p e r i o d
b e c a u s e o f t h e low y i e l d s .
A t t h e end o f t h e p e r i o d t h e a c c u m u la te d
g r o s s s a v in g s w i t h no i n s u r a n c e w i l l b e g r e a t e r t h a n i t w i l l b e w i t h
i n s u r a n c e u n l e s s t h e fa r m e x p e r i e n c e s s u b s t a n t i a l l o s s e s i n t h e i n t e r ­
m e d ia te y e a r s .
The a c c u m u la te d g r o s s s a v in g s colum ns i n A p p e n d ix C
show t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p . ■ F o r t h e T r i a n g l e y i e l d s e r i e s num ber 2 ,
T a b le IV , t h e fa r m s h ad a low y i e l d i n t h e 1 4 th y e a r , i n a d d i t i o n to- '
t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s , w h ic h c a u s e d t h e a c c u m u la te d g r o s s s a v in g s w i t h
in s u ra n c e to be l a r g e r th a n w ith o u t in s u ra n c e .
I n t h e s h o r t r u n , t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f t h e y i e l d s e r i e s , th e
s i t u a t i o n i s c o n s id e ra b ly d i f f e r e n t .
From t h e a c c u m u la te d g r o s s s a v in g s
c o lu m n s i n t h e T a b le s i n A p p e n d ix C and F i g u r e s 2 - 5 i t i s
a p p a re n t
t h a t a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e w i l l l e s s e n t h e im p a c t o f low y i e l d s .
Accumu­
l a t e d g r o s s s a v in g i s u s e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e a c c u m u la te d g r o s s incom e f o r
t h e fa rm l e s s a c h a r g e f o r minimum f a m i l y l i v i n g and b e f o r e a c h a rg e i s
made f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n .
A c c u m u la te d n e t s a v in g s i s u s e d t o d e s c r i b e
a c c u m u la te d incom e a f t e r a c h a r g e i s made 'f o r b o t h minimum f a m i ly l i v i n g
-
A ccumuloted
Gro ss
F ig u re
5.
55 -
,
1700
A c c u m u l a t e d G r o s s S a v i n g s W i t h No I n s u r a n c e A nd W i t h A l l - r i s k
I n s u r a n c e F o r T h e F o u r S p r i n g W h e a t F a r m s Y i e l d S e r i e s N o. I .
-
56
-
Accumulated
Gross
Savings (in t houson ds)
Broken l i n e — — -----with all nsk insurance
Solid l i n e --------------with no i n s u r m c e
I7QO
1200
■700
120 0
1200
1700
Years
F ig u re 6 .
A c c u m u l a t e d G r o s s S a v i n g s W i t h No I n s u r a n c e A nd W i t h A l l - r i s k
I n s u r a n c e F o r T he F o u r W i n t e r W h e a t F a r m s - - Y i e l d S e r i e s N o. I ,
-
57 -
Accumulated
Gross
Savings (in t h o u s a n d s )
1700
Broken l i n e --------- with a Il risk insurance
Solid l i n e ---------- with no in su ra nc e
/>
1200
-12&Q
830
. 490
400
1700
Ye ors
F ig u re 7 .
A c c u m u la te d G ro ss S a v in g s W ith No I n s u r a n c e And W ith A l l - r i s k
I n s u r a n c e F o r T he F o u r S p r i n g W h e a t F a r m s - - Y i e l d S e r i e s N o.
?
-
58
-
Accumulo ted
Gross
Savings (in thousands)
17 0 0
Broken line---------- with all risk insurance
Solid line
with no insurance
1200
170 0
1200
1200
1700
Years
F ig u r e 8
A c c u m u l a t e d G r o s s S a v i n g s W i t h No I n s u r a n c e A nd W i t h A l l - r i s k
I n s u r a n c e F o r T h e F o u r W i n t e r W h e a t F a rm s — Y i e l d S e r i e s N o. 2
-
and d e p r e c i a t i o n .
59 -
From t h e F i g u r e s we c a n s e e t h a t a l l fa r m s showed a
• l o s s t h e f i r s t y e a r and a l l e x c e p t t h e 1 ,2 0 0 and 1 ,7 0 0 a c r e w i n t e r w h e a t
f a r m s show ed l o s s e s t h e n e x t two y e a r s w i t h o u t a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e .
use o f a l l - r i s k
The
i n s u r a n c e d e c r e a s e s t h e am ount o f t h e l o s s f o r a l l fa rm s
d u rin g th o s e y e a r s .
On t h e b a s i s o f y i e l d s u s e d , t h e 1 ,7 0 0 a c r e w i n t e r
w h e a t fa rm ( y i e l d s e r i e s num ber I ) and t h e 1 ,7 0 0 s p r i n g w h e a t fa rm ( y i e l d
s e r i e s num ber 2) w e re t h e o n ly fa rm s a d e q u a t e ly c o v e r e d w i t h a l l - r i s k
in s u ra n c e .
cover
By a d e q u a c y i s m ean t t h a t t h e s e w e re t h e o n ly fa r m s t h a t c o u ld
t h e i r f a r m in g e x p e n s e s and f a m i l y l i v i n g e x p e n s e s .
T h is s u g g e s t s
t h a t f o r a l l e x c e p t t h e l a r g e r f a rm s a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e i f u s e d a lo n e i s
an i n s u f f i c i e n t m eans o f p r e v e n t i n g l o s s e s o c c u r i n g fro m low y i e l d s .
I n t h i s s i t u a t i o n and p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r some b e g in n i n g fa rm e rs t h e r e a r e
two w ays t h e y c a n c o n t i n u e t h e fa rm b u s i n e s s d e s p i t e l o s s e s e x p e r ie n c e d
above.
They c a n c o v e r th em e x - a n t e w i t h i n s u r a n c e o r e x - p o s t , th e y c a n
a v a i l th e m s e lv e s t o c r e d i t .
As shown ab o v e i f t h e f a r m e r w a n te d t o c o v e r
th em e x - a n t e m ore i n s u r a n c e t h a n a l l - r i s k w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d .
I t w ould
a l s o r e q u i r e t h a t t h e l o s s e s s u s t a i n t e d w e re fro m h a i l a s t h i s i s t h e
o n ly o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e c r o p i n s u r a n c e a v a i l a b l e t o f a r m e r s .
None o f t h e
l o s s e s o c c u r i n g i n t h e f i r s t y e a r w e re fro m h a i l i n t h e y i e l d s e r i e s
u sed.
T h is m eans t h a t t h e s e f a r m e r s h ad no a l t e r n a t i v e b u t t o s u p p le m e n t
t h e i r e x -a n te c o v e ra g e .
I n t h e s h o r t - r u n m o st b e g in n i n g f a r m e r s a r e n o t
l i k e l y to have s u f f i c i e n t l i q u i d r e s e r v e s o r s to r e d g r a in a v a ila b le f o r
— 60 —
th e s e to be a r e a l i s t i c
a lte rn a tiv e . 3 /
b e lt tig h te n in g , s h o rt-te rm c r e d i t ,
The o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s open a r e
or o ff-fa rm jo b s .
I n v ie w o f t h e
p r e f e r e n c e r a n k i n g o f t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e s t h e f a r m e r s w ould p r e f e r n o t t o
t a k e a jo b o f f t h e fa rm and a s t h e l o s s h a s a l r e a d y b e e n s u s t a i n e d s h o r t ­
te r m c r e d i t i s t h e o n ly one o p e n t o him .
B e l t t i g h t e n i n g may c e r t a i n l y
be u sed i n c o n ju n c tio n w ith c r e d i t b u t c a n n o t r e p la c e c r e d i t in a
s i t u a t i o n such as t h i s .
T h is in a d e q u a c y o f a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e may a l s o
e x p la in p a r t o f th e n e g a tiv e in s u ra n c e a t t i t u d e o f th e fa rm e rs .
m e n tio n e d i n C h a p te r IV t h e f a r m e r s may r e a l i z e t h a t a l l - r i s k
is
As
in su ra n c e
an i n s u f f i c i e n t m eans o f i n s u r i n g s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t r u n (im p ro m p tu
i n t e r v i e w s w i t h f a r m e r s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e y do r e c o g n i z e t h i s ) , .
T h is
r e a l i z a t i o n i s t h e n e x p r e s s e d i n t h e i r a t t i t u d e to w a rd c r o p in s u r a n c e
use.
I f th e farm er i s c a rry in g a l l - r i s k
i n s u r a n c e and i f he h a s l o s s e s ,
s u c h a s u s e d f o r t h e b u d g e t s , he w i l l h a v e t o b o rro w l e s s o v e r t h e t h r e e y e a r p e r i o d t h a n i f he w as n o t c a r r y i n g i n s u r a n c e .
F u r th e r m o r e , t h e c ro p
i n s u r a n c e p o l i c y a c t s a s a fo rm o f c o l l a t e r a l f o r o b t a i n i n g a l o a n .
In
t h e s c h e d u l e s f o r t h i s s tu d y t h e q u e s t i o n w as a s k e d , " h a s a c r e d i t o r
e v e r asked you to c a r r y c ro p in s u ra n c e w ith h is lo a n " .
The a n s w e rs t o
t h i s q u e s t i o n i n d i c a t e t h a t w h ile l e n d e r s do n o t r e q u i r e c r o p i n s u r a n c e
th e y s tr o n g ly s u g g e s t i t .
2 / ' T h is s h o r t r u n
s itu a tio n
is
th e
sam e a s t h e
one d e s c r ib e d
on page 5.
-6 1
—
A lth o u g h c r o p i n s u r a n c e w i l l l e s s e n t h e im p a c t o f l o s s e s i n t h i s t h r e e
y e a r p e r i o d , o v e r a lo n g r u n p e r i o d t h e f a r m e r i s a d e q u a t e ly p r e p a r e d t o
c a r r y h i s own i n s u r a n c e and a t t h e same tim e a t t a i n h i s s e c o n d g o a l o f
c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
T h is i s
shown i n t h e a c c u m u la te d n e t s a v in g s co lu m n s
i n t h e T a b le s i n A p p e n d ix C.
U se o f H a i l I n s u r a n c e w i t h t h e Y i e ld S e r i e s
To e x am in e t h e e f f e c t o f c a r r y i n g h a i l i n s u r a n c e on n e t fa rm incom e
S t a t e H a i l B o a rd i n s u r a n c e was u s e d .
The co lu m n s "W ith b o t h a l l - r i s k
and c r o p - h a i l " and " o n ly c r o p - h a i l " i n t h e T a b le s i n A p p e n d ix C show t h e
e f f e c t o f c a r r y in g S t a te H a il In s u ra n c e e v e ry y e a r .
The a s s u m p tio n
t h a t t h e fa rm w i l l c a r r y h a i l i n s u r a n c e e v e r y y e a r i s u n r e a l i s t i c
d u r in g y e a r s i n w h ic h a n t i c i p a t e d y i e l d s a r e low a s a r e s u l t o f d r o u th
and o t h e r f a c t o r s .
In th e s e y e a rs i t
i s u n lik e ly th e fa rm e r w i l l b u rd en
h im s e lf w ith th e e x t r a c o s t o f h a i l in s u r a n c e .
T h is a s s u m p tio n was made
i n t h i s s tu d y t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e h a n d li n g o f c o s t i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e
c o m p u te r p ro g ra m .
T h is a s s u m p tio n w i l l n o t d e t r a c t fro m t h e b u d g e t
a n a l y s i s s i n c e i n y e a r s when h a i l i n s u r a n c e i s n o t n e c e s s a r y t h e c o s t
and incom e f i g u r e s w i t h o u t i n s u r a n c e may b e u s e d .
The a d d i t i o n a l
a s s u m p tio n t h a t p r i v a t e h a i l i n s u r a n c e w o u ld b e c a r r i e d i f t h e c ro p l o o k s
good eno u g h t o w a r r a n t i t w as made f o r t h i s
a n a ly s is .
' L o s s e s w e re p a id
o n ly f o r t h o s e y e a r s when t h e r e w as e v id e n c e t h a t a h a i l l o s s c o u ld h av e
o c c u rre d .
The l o s s i n f o r m a t i o n w as o b t a i n e d - f r o m s t a t e h a i l m aps and b y
- 62 o b s e r v i n g w h a t t y p e o f y i e l d s t h e n e ig h b o r i n g fa rm s h a d e a c h y e a r .
W h ile
t h i s i s o n ly an a p p r o x im a tio n o f l o s s e s , i n d i c a t i o n s o f w h at h a p p e n s t o
f a r m incom e may b e o b t a i n e d t h i s way.
The l o s s y e a r s and t h e p a y m e n ts r e c e i v e d b y f a r m e r s a p p e a r i n T a b le s
XKI and X X II.
The p a y m e n ts w e re added t o t h e n e t fa rm incom e f i g u r e s i n ,
t h e c o lu m n s " n e t fa rm incom e w i t h c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e " i n A p p en d ix G.
U n le s s t h e f a r m e r c a r r i e s c r o p - h a i l i n s u r a n c e e v e r y y e a r t h e u se o f
i t r e q u i r e s a s u b j e c t i v e ju d g m e n t o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a h a i l s t o r m
o c c u rrin g o r t h a t th e c ro p w a rra n ts i t .
T h is ju d g m e n t may t a k e t h e fo rm
o f t h e f a r m e r a c t u a l l y b a s i n g t h i s ju d g m e n t on p a s t e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h
s to r m s o r he may t a k e t h e m ore u s u a l r o u t e and o n ly b u y c r o p - h a i l
i n s u r a n c e i f he f i g u r e s t h e c r o p w a r r a n t s i t .
b/
Zu/
Of t h e 84 i r r e g u l a r i n s u r a n c e u s e r s , 36 b o u g h t t h e i r i n s u r a n c e t h i s
w ay.
The r e m a in in g 48 g av e v a r i o u s o t h e r r e s p o n s e s r a n g i n g fro m
" i n s u r e s h i m s e lf " t o " p l a y s a h u n c h " .
- 63 TABLE XXI;.—HAIL LOSSES AED PAYMENT BY FAEM SIZE FOR EACH AREA, YIELD
SERIES #1,
T ria n g le w in te r w heat
Y e a r______ :______ P e r c e n t l o s s _______ s_______ Farm s i z e
400
58
4
33
U
46
16
55
19
830
58
4
33
14
46
16
19
55
1200
58
4
33
14
46
16
55
19
1700
58
4
33
14 '
16
46
55
19
i_______ Paym ent
$
933
531
740
884
1949
1109'
1546:
1848
2819
1604
2236
2673
3995
2273
3168
3788
TABLE X X II.,— HAIL LOSSES AND PAYMENTS BY FARM SIZE FOR EACH AREA, YIELD
SERIES # 2
T r i a n g l e w inter_Jezheat.
Y e a r s % l o s s i i Farm s i z e s Pavm ent
400
2
62
997
1431
U
89
17
27
434
20
50
804
830 ■
2
62
2083
2990
89
14
907
17
27
1680
20
50
1200
2
62
3013
4325
89
• 14
1312
27
17
2430
20
50
1700
2
62
4271
6130
89
14
1860
17
27
20
50
3444
N o rth e a s t s o r in g w heat
Y e a r s 2) l o s s s Farm s i z e . : Pavm eht
400
6
47
756
47
756
14
16
41
659
52
836
19
830
6
47
1579
47
14
1579 .
16
1378
41
52
1747
19
1200
6
47
2284
14
2284
47
16
1993
41
52
19
2527
1700
6
47
3237
47
3237
14
16
2824
41
52
3582
19
CHAPTER V I
IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
The p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e b e g in n i n g y e a r s a r e t h e m o st
v u l n e r a b l e y e a r s i n d r y la n d g r a i n f a r m in g .
T h ese a r e t h e y e a r s i n w h ic h
t h e f a r m e r m akes t h e l a r g e s t i n v e s t m e n t s i n l a n d , m a c h in e r y , and b u i l d i n g s .
H is n e t w o r th p o s i t i o n may b e r e l a t i v e l y lo w , m aking i t m ore d i f f i c u l t t o
b o rro w a d d i t i o n a l f u n d s f o r t h e b u s i n e s s .
T jiis i s r e f l e c t e d i n f a r m e r s '-
a t t i t u d e s , t h e i r p r e f e re n c e ra n k in g o f h a z a rd s , t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e ra n k in g
o f m e th o d s o f p r o t e c t i n g fa rm in c o m e , and i n t h e c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e b u d g e t
a n a ly s is .
Im p lic a tio n s
The c o n c l u s i o n s r e a c h e d a t t h e end o f t h e t h r e e p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r s
su g g est in c o n s is te n c ie s .
The f a r m e r s h ad a p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e t o w a r d '
p l a n n i n g and a n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e to w a rd u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e .
T hat
f a r m e r s r a n k e d a l l - r i s k i n f i r s t p l a c e a s a ty p e o f h a z a r d t o i n s u r e
a g a i n s t , and a t t h e same tim e r a n k e d c r o p i n s u r a n c e low i n r e l a t i o n t o
s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d and c a s h , s t o c k s , a n d .b o n d s m ig h t a p p e a r t o be
in c o n s is te n t.
T h ese c a n b e shown t o b e c o n s i s t e n t i n te r m s o f o t h e r
c o n c l u s i o n s r e a c h e d i n t h e s tu d y .
The s tu d y s u g g e s t s t h a t f a r m e r s r e a l i z e t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f c ro p
i n s u r a n c e a s a m eth o d o f incom e p r o t e c t i o n .
T h is r e a l i z a t i o n w ould
c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e to w a rd i n s u r a n c e u s e , a n d t o t h e
low p o s i t i o n o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e i n t h e r a n k o r d e r .
I t may b e an
- 65 e x p r e s s i o n o f t h e f a r m e r s ' d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h l e v e l o f c o v e ra g e a v a i l a b l e
o r o th e r a s p e c ts o f p r e s e n t in s u ra n c e p o l i c i e s .
The a p p a r e n t i n c o n s i s t e n c y b e tw e e n p l a n n i n g and i n s u r a n c e a t t i t u d e s
c a n b e e x p l a i n e d i n much t h e same m a n n e r.
The f a r m e r s ' r e a l i z a t i o n o f
t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e may h a v e r e s u l t e d i n t h e i r f a v o r i n g
some o t h e r m eth o d o f incom e p r o t e c t i o n .
I t may a l s o m ean t h a t t h e i r f i r s t
g o a l i s n o t s u r v i v a l o r incom e p r o t e c t i o n .
p o in t th a t s to re d g r a in i s n o t a r e a l i s t i c
s u c h a s t h e s m a ll o r b e g in n i n g f a r m e r .
I t s h o u ld b e m e n tio n e d a t t h i s
a l t e r n a t i v e f o r some f a r m e r s
The s m a ll f a r m e r i s i n a p o o r
p o s i t i o n t o u se s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d e v e n th o u g h he may p r e f e r t h i s
m e th o d .
H is t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n m a y b e n e e d e d e a c h y e a r t o m e e t e x p e n s e s .
I n f a c t , he may h a v e t o b o rro w f u n d s , e v e n i n a h ig h y i e l d y e a r .
The
l a r g e r f a r m e r s 'm a y b e a b le t o p lan , on s t o r i n g some o f t h e i r g r a i n f o r
incom e p r o t e c t i o n p u r p o s e s .
T h is may b e one r e a s o n why c r o p a c r e s was
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e to w a rd p l a n n i n g .
By p l a c i n g s t o r e d
g r a i n and f e e d and c a s h , s t o c k s , and b o n d s o v e r c r o p i n s u r a n c e f a r m e r s
i n d i c a t e a b e l i e f t h a t t h e s e a r e m ore e f f e c t i v e m eans o f incom e p r o t e c ­
t i o n th a n p r e s e n t in s u ra n c e p o l i c i e s .
T h is i s
s i g n i f i c a n t i n l i g h t o f H j o r t 's s tu d y w h ere i t w as fo u n d
t h a t t h e u s e o f s t o r e d g r a i n may h a v e n e g a t i v e r e t u r n s t o t h e f a rm , l /
E i t h e r f a r m e r s do n o t r e a l i z e t h i s o r t h e y p r e f e r t h i s m eth o d o f incom e
p r o te c tio n in s p i t e o f th e p o s s ib le n e g a tiv e r e tu r n s .
I/
Howard H jo r t , o p . c i t . , p p . 4 2 - 5 7 .
I
— 66 —
C e r t a i n a d d i t i o n a l i m p l i c a t i o n s c a n b e draw n fro m t h e b u d g e t a n a l y s i s
and t h e r a n k o r d e r o f h a z a r d s and a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s o f p r o t e c t i o n .
d a ta in d ic a te th a t p re s e n t a l l - r i s k
The
in s u ra n c e does n o t c o v e r th e c a sh c o s ts
o f f a r m e r s , a s i t w as i n t e n d e d t o d o .
P e r h a p s t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s w h ic h l i m i t
i t s c o v e ra g e s h o u ld b e c h a n g e d t o e n a b le t h e F e d e r a l C rop I n s u r a n c e
C o rp o ra tio n to o f f e r a h ig h e r l e v e l o f c o v e ra g e .
it
W ith o u t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h
i s d i f f i c u l t t o s a y e x a c t l y w h at t h i s l e v e l s h o u ld b e .
The d a t a u s e d
i n t h i s s tu d y i n d i c a t e a l e v e l a ro u n d 10 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e f o r t h e N o r t h e a s t
s p r i n g w h e a t, a r e a , and 12 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e f o r t h e T r i a n g l e w i n t e r w h e a t
a re a .
T h e se f i g u r e s a r e a v e r a g e s a s u s e d i n t h e s tu d y .
At th e s e le v e ls
m o st f a r m e r s c o u ld c o v e r t h e i r c a s h c o s t s w ith o u t i n c u r r i n g t h e a d d i t i o n a l
c o s t o f c r e d i t w h ic h p r e s e n t l y h a s t o b e u s e d .
The r e s u l t s o f t h e s tu d y s u g g e s t t h a t a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e i s p r e s e n tly c o v e r i n g c o n t i n g e n c i e s f a r m e r s do n o t c o n s i d e r s e r i o u s h a z a r d s .
The
f a r m e r c a n .a d e q u a te ly p r o t e c t h i m s e l f a g a i n s t su c h m inor- h a z a r d s a s i n s e c t s ,
d i s e a s e , and w i n t e r k i l l .
p o s e no s e r i o u s p r o b le m .
W ind and f l o o d i n g o c c u r so se ld o m t h a t th e y
T h ese c o u p le d w i t h t h e n e g a t i v e in s u r a n c e
a t t i t u d e and low r a n k i n g o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e b y f a r m e r s s u g g e s t t h a t f a r m e r s
a r e n o t r e c e i v i n g i n c r o p i n s u r a n c e w h a t t h e y e x p e c t and w a n t.
F u tu re R e se a rc h
T h e re a r e - s t i l l u n a n sw e re d q u e s t i o n s w h ic h p e r t a i n t o t h e u s e o f c r o p
i n s u r a n c e i n d r y l a n d f a r m in g .
One q u e s t i o n w h ic h n e e d s a n s w e rin g i s w hat
i s t h e optim um l e v e l o f i n s u r a n c e f o r f a r m e r s t o c a r r y w i t h r e s p e c t t o
a l l - r i s k in s u ra n c e .
T h is q u e s t i o n n e e d s a n s w e rin g f o r p o l i c y r e a s o n s and
-
67 -
f o r a d v i s i n g f a r m e r s on t h e s u b j e c t .
An e f f o r t s h o u ld a l s o b e made t o
o b t a i n a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n on y i e l d s and l o s s e s f o r s p e c i f i c f a r m s , t h e n
t o t e s t f o r a s s o c i a t i o n b e tw e e n t h i s and i n s u r a n c e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e
o p e ra to rs o f th e s e farm s.
I t was fo u n d t h a t a c c u r a t e y i e l d
in fo rm a tio n i s d i f f i c u l t to o b ta in .
and l o s s
H ow ever, w i t h s u f f i c i e n t tim e and
r e s o u r c e s , u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n c o u ld b e o b t a i n e d t h a t w o u ld sh e d a d d i t i o n a l
l i g h t on t h e u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e .
The a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s u s e d i n t h i s
a g r i c u l t u r a l e c o n o m ic s .
s tu d y w e re f o r t h e m o st p a r t new t o
F o r t h i s r e a s o n an a tte m p t w i l l b e made t o
e v a lu a te th e s e to o ls w ith r e s p e c t to f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h .
A r e s e a r c h e r who i n t e n d s t o u s e a t t i t u d e s c a l e s a s a p a r t o f h i s s tu d y
s h o u ld p a y p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e t y p e s o f q u e s t i o n s a s k e d .
A l is t of
t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a t t i t u d e q u e s t i o n s w as g iv e n i n C h a p te r I I , p a g e 14.
I t i s i m p o r ta n t t o f o l l o w t h e s e c r i t e r i a ,
t o s e r i o u s p ro b le m s d u r i n g a n a l y s i s .
few q u e s t i o n s a r e a s k e d .
a s d e p a r t u r e fro m th em c a n l e a d
T h is i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e i f o n ly a
The r e s e a r c h e r s h o u ld a l s o b u i l d t h e r e m a in d e r
o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e a ro u n d t h e s e a t t i t u d e q u e s t i o n s .
T h is w i l l f a c i l i t a t e
a n a l y s i s i n te r m s o f w h at d e te r m i n e s a t t i t u d e s .
To b e u s e f u l i n a g r i c u l t u r a l econom ic r e s e a r c h , s t u d i e s o f th e
a t t i t u d e s o f f a r m e r s s h o u ld l e a d t o a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d in g o f t h e p ro b le m s
u n d e r s tu d y t h a n w o u ld h a v e o t h e r w i s e b e e n p o s s i b l e .
At t h i s p o in t i t
i s p o s s i b l e f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a t o p r o f i t fro m e r r o r s made
i n t h i s s tu d y .
One o f t h e m o st o b v io u s and c e r t a i n l y t h e m o st l i m i t i n g
e r r o r o f t h i s s tu d y w as f a i l u r e t o c o l l e c t a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n fro m
— 68 —
f a r m e r s c o n c e r n in g t h e c o s t o f i n s u r a n c e and t h e i r a p p r a i s a l o f t h e s e c o s t s .
Had t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n b e e n c o l l e c t e d i t c o u ld h a v e b e e n co m p ared t o a t t i t u d e
sc o re s.
W h ile t h e r e i s no e m p i r i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e i t c a n be
s u g g e s te d t h a t c o s t w i l l h a v e m ore i n f l u e n c e on a t t i t u d e s t h a n any o t h e r
fa c to r.
I t s h o u ld b e r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h i s d o e s n o t h o ld f o r a l l a t t i t u d e s ;
f o r e x a m p le , p l a n n i n g , w h e re no p o s i t i v e c o s t f i g u r e c a n b e a t t a c h e d .
d e a lin g w ith i n s t i t u t i o n s
When
su c h a s i n s u r a n c e o r c r e d i t c o s t may b e an
i m p o r ta n t f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g a t t i t u d e s and t h e r e s e a r c h e r - ' sho.uld r e c o g n i z e
t h i s in h is q u e s tio n n a ire .
L i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e u s e o f - a t t i t u d e q u e s t i o n s i n r e s e a r c h a r e : 1)
th e u se o f t h i s t y p e o f q u e s t i o n c a n b e c o s t l y i n te r m s o f tim e and m oney,
a p r e t e s t m u st b e c o n d u c te d b e f o r e t h e r e g u l a r s c h e d u le i s t a k e n t o
in su re v a lid ity .
2 ) A l a r g e sam p le i s n e e d e d i f t h e sa m p le i s t o b e
s u b -d iv id e d f o r th e a n a ly s is .
re lia b ility
When g ro u p s a r e l e s s t h a n 100 i n s i z e t h e
o f th e r e s u l t s i s d e c re a se d .
3 ) U n le s s a p o s i t i v e m ethod f o r
d e te r m i n in g t h e am ount o f a s s o c i a t i o n c a n b e d i s c o v e r e d o r o b t a i n e d ,
a t t i t u d e s c o r e s c a n o n ly s u g g e s t a c t i o n on t h e p a r t o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t .
C o n tin g e n c y t a b l e s w e re u s e d i n , t h i s
i s n o t e n c o u ra g e d .
s tu d y , b u t t h e i r u se i n th e f u tu r e
They i n d i c a t e a s s o c i a t i o n b u t c a n n o t b e " u s e d t o ’
d e te r m in e ,th e am ount o f a s s o c i a t i o n .
A t t i t u d e s t a t e m e n t s , s u c h a s t h e o n e s i n t h i s s tu d y , s h o u ld f i n d a
p l a c e i n any s tu d y w h e re o p i n io n s c a n b e e x p r e s s e d .
Once t h e f a r m e r s 1'
a t t i t u d e s to w a rd t h e p ro b le m s t h e y f a c e c a n b e d e te r m in e d , t h e r e s e a r c h e r
c a n g e t an i n s i g h t i n t o how t h e s e c a n b e s t b e s o lv e d , i n a m anner f a v o r a b l e
-
to fa rm e rs.
69 -
T h is s h o u ld h o ld f o r s t u d i e s o f p o l i c y c h a n g e s c o n c e r n in g t h e
d r y l a n d g r a i n f a r m e r s , f o r m a r k e tin g s t u d i e s , f o r any s tu d y w h ic h i n v o l v e s
in s titu tio n s .
The u se o f p a i r e d c o m p a ris o n s i n f u t u r e r e s e a r c h i s h i g h l y recom m ended
w h e n e v e r a r e s e a r c h e r w a n ts t h e r a n k o r d e r f o r a s e t o f o b j e c t s .
W ith t h i s
m eth o d m ore i n f o r m a t i o n i s o b t a i n e d t h a n w i t h t h e a l t e r n a t i v e m ethod o f
a s k in g t h e r e s p o n d e n t t o r a n k t h e o b j e c t s .
c o m p a r is o n s f o r r a n k o r d e r a r e ?
The l i m i t a t i o n s o f p a i r e d
l) F or a la rg e s e t o f o b je c ts or f a c to rs
t h e num ber o f p a i r s becom es so l a r g e t h a t t h e r e s p o n d e n t w ould have
d i f f i c u l t y g o in g th r o u g h th e m .
2) When t h e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n t s i s
l a r g e , t h e p r o c e s s o f a n a l y s i s b ecom es tim e -c o n s u m in g w i t h o u t t h e u s e o f
an e l e c t r o n i c c o m p u te r.
I t s h o u ld b e p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e u se o f p a i r e d
I
c o m p a ris o n s i s n o t l i m i t e d t o r a n k o r d e r b u t may b e u s e d f o r f i n d i n g
a t t i t u d e s as w e ll, a lth o u g h i t i s n o t as w e ll s u ite d f o r t h i s as a lt e r n a t iv e
m e th o d s w h ic h a r e d e s c r i b e d i n A. L. E d w a rd s ' b o o k .
2/
2/
A. L. E d w a rd s , T e c h n iq u e s o f A t t i t u d e S c a le C o n s t r u c t i o n . A p p le to n G e n tu r y - C ro f t , I n c . , New Y o rk , 1957.
CHAPTER V II
SUMMARY
F a c e d w i t h t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s w h ic h c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e G r e a t P l a i n s , t h e
f a r m e r i s f o r c e d t o make a d e c i s i o n t o p r o t e c t h i s fa rm incom e fro m low
l e v e l s i f he i s t o s u r v i v e i n t h e - s h o r t - r u n .
One m eans o f p r o t e c t i o n i s
o f f e r e d th r o u g h c r o p i n s u r a n c e w h e re t h e f a r m e r i s a b le t o s h i f t p a r t o f
h i s u n c e r t a i n t i e s t o a r i s k t a k e r , t h e i n s u r a n c e com pany.
Summary
The h y p o t h e s i s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t h a t i t i s m ore i m p o r ta n t t h a t c r o p
in s u ra n c e b e used in th e s h o rt r a t h e r th a n th e lo n g -ru n .
S p e c if ic a lly , th e
f a r m e r 's u se o f i n s u r a n c e i s i n f l u e n c e d b y h i s a t t i t u d e to w a rd i t and
p re fe re n c e f o r o th e r a lte r n a t iv e s .
The f a r m e r who u s e s c r o p i n s u r a n c e i s
l e s s l i k e l y t p e x p e r i e n c e y e a r s when h i s f a r m incom e i s n o t a d e q u a te t o
c o v e r e x p e n s e s t h a n one who d o e s n o t .
To. t e s t t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i t was
n e c e s s a r y t o m e a s u re t h e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e to w a rd i n s u r a n c e and p l a n n i n g ,
how he r a n k e d i t i n r e l a t i o n t o a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s o f a c c o m p lis h in g t h e
same g o a l , and how a d e q u a te i n s u r a n c e w as f o r a t t a i n i n g t h e g o a l o f
s u rv iv a l.
The f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e to w a rd i n s u r a n c e and p l a n n i n g w as c a l c u l a t e d
u s in g t h e G uttm an s c a lo g r a m t e c h n i q u e .
Once t h e a t t i t u d e s w e re fo u n d t h e y
w e re co m p ared t o o t h e r f a c t o r s t o f i n d e v id e n c e o f a s s o c i a t i o n .
A r a n k o r d e r was e s t a b l i s h e d f o r m e th o d s o f p r o t e c t i n g fa rm incom es
fro m a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f p a i r e d
c o m p a r is o n s .
T h is m eth o d r e v e a l s how much m ore i m p o r ta n t one a l t e r n a t i v e
-
71
i s th a n th e o th e r s as w e ll as th e ra n k o rd e r.
S t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d was
t h e m eth o d f a r m e r s p r e f e r r e d t o u se f o r s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm in co m e.
In r e l a ti o n to y ie ld v a r i a b i l i t y
and t h e r e s u l t i n g u n c e r t a i n t y t h e
h a z a r d s f a c e d b y f a r m e r s w e re a l s o r a n k e d t h r o u g h t h e p a i r e d c o m p a ris o n
m e th o d .
T h is r a n k r e v e a l e d t h a t , i n g e n e r a l , f a r m e r s w ould p r e f e r t o
i n s u r e a g a i n s t a l l r i s k s r a t h e r t h a n a g a i n s t t h e s e p a r a t e c o n tin g e n c y .
It
a l s o r e v e a l e d t h a t f a r m e r s c o n s i d e r t h e d r o u t h h a z a r d m ore im p o r ta n t t h a n
th e h a il h a z ard .
B u d g e t a n a l y s i s w as u s e d t o t e s t t h e a d e q u a c y o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e a s a
m eans o f p r o t e c t i n g t h e f a r m e r fro m t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f y i e l d variaVb i l i t y . , I t w as assum ed t h e g o a l o f t h e f a r m e r w as s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t ru n .
B u d g e ts w e re r u n f o r f o u r d i f f e r e n t s i z e g r o u p s .
As t h e m ain c o n c e r n
o f t h e s t u d y w as s h o r t - r u n s u r v i v a l t h e a s s u m p tio n w as made t h a t no
d e p r e c i a t i bn n e e d b e d e d u c te d fro m n e t c a s h incom e d u r i n g t h e s h o r t - r u n . ■
The b u d g e t a n a l y s i s r e v e a l e d t h a t o n c e a c h a r g e was made f o r f a m i ly l i v i n g
e x p e n s e s , a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e a lo n e w as n o t a d e q u a te t o g u a r a n t e e s u r v i v a l .
T h is w as e v i d e n t w hen a c t u a l y i e l d s e r i e s w e re u se d f o r y i e l d d a t a .
The c o n c l u s i o n s r e a c h e d i n a n a l y s i s s u g g e s te d t h a t c r o p i n s u r a n c e b y
i t s e l f i s n o t an a d e q u a te m eans o f g u a r a n t e e i n g s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t - r u n .
H ow ever, t h e u s e o f c r o p i n s u r a n c e p u t s f a r m e r s i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o
o b t a i n c r e d i t t o s u p p le m e n t t h e i r n e t c a s h in co m e .
The u s e o f c ro p
i n s u r a n c e i s recom m ended b y some c r e d i t o r s and may b e u s e d a s c o l l a t e r a l
f o r o b ta in in g a lo a n .
- 72 -
I t s h o u ld b e m e n tio n e d t h a t i f
a l l l o s s e s w ere d u e t o h a i l t h e f a r m e r
c o u ld p r o t e c t h i m s e l f a d e q u a t e ly b u t a s t h i s i s n o t t h e c a s e i t
a p p e ars
t h a t a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e and c r e d i t m u st b e u se d f o r s h o r t - r u n s u r v i v a l .
' I n th e lo n g -r u n s i t u a t i o n fa rm e rs n eed n o t use c ro p in s u ra n c e f o r
p r o t e c t i o n b u t may u s e t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e m eth o d s t h e y p r e f e r .
I t was
e v i d e n t fro m t h e b u d g e ts t h a t i n t h e l o n g - r u n f a r m e r s c o u ld p r o t e c t
th e m s e lv e s a d e q u a t e l y and t h e d i r e c t c a s h b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d fro m c a r r y i n g
a l l - r i s k i n s u r a n c e w o u ld b e l e s s t h a n t h e c o s t o f c a r r y i n g i t .
h y p o th e s is t h a t i t
i s m ore i m p o r ta n t t o u s e c r o p i n s u r a n c e
The
i n th e s h o rt
t h a n i n t h e l o n g - r u n i s t h e r e f o r e s u p p o r t e d th r o u g h t h i s a n a l y s i s .
APPENDICES
- 74 - '
APPENDIX A
The a t t i t u d e s t a t e m e n t s a r e l i s t e d b e lo w .
I n t h e s c h e d u le e a c h
q u e s t i o n w as f o ll o w e d b y an a rr a n g e m e n t w h e r e in t h e e n u m e r a to r c o u ld c h e c k
w h e th e r t h e r e s p o n d e n t a g r e e d o r d i s a g r e e d , and i f t h e r e s p o n s e was q u a l i ­
fie d .
S p a c e w as a l s o p r o v id e d f o r r e c o r d i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e q u a l i f i c a t i o n .
P lan n in g A ttitu d e StatmmAnta
1.
You c a n p l a n a h e a d a l l r i g h t , b u t y o u u s u a l l y h a v e t o !change y o u r p l a n s
anyw ay.
2.
You c a n so m e tim e s p r e v e n t m i s t a k e s b y l o o k in g a h e a d a l i t t l e - b i t .
3.
You s h o u ld a n t i c i p a t e g e n e r a l t h i n g s and n o t t r y t o make p l a n s f o r t h e
f u t u r e i n an y g r e a t d e t a i l .
4.
You h a v e t o t h i n k a h e a d on a f a r m .
5.
I t ' s e n o u g h i f y o u h a v e some g e n e r a l i d e a o f w h ere y o u a r e g o in g a n d how
y o u m ig h t go a b o u t g e t t i n g t h e r e .
6.
You s h o u ld c o n s i d e r t h e m o st l i k e l y p o s s i b i l i t i e s and p r e p a r e y o u r s e l f
f o r a l l o f th em .
7.
Time e n o u g h t o w o rry a b o u t n e x t y e a r when i t g e t s h e r e .
8.
E v en th o u g h t h e r e a r e some t h i n g s t h a t y o u j u s t c a n ' t a n t i c i p a t e y o u
s h o u ld b e a s r e a d y f o r th em a s y o u c a n b e .
I n s u r a n c e A t t i t u d e S ta te m e n t s
1.
You s h o u ld t r y t o p r o t e c t y o u r s e l f b y m eans o t h e r t h a n i n s u r i n g t h e
c ro p .
2.
You h a v e so few r e a l l y p o o r c r o p y i e l d s t h a t i n s u r a n c e d o e s n o t p a y
fo r its e lf .
3.
■rYou s h o u ld i n s u r e t h e c r o p i f y o u a r e c o u n ti n g on i t t o p a y o f f
p r e s s in g d e b ts .
-
15
4.
You s h o u l d n 't t r y t o fa rm on d r y l a n d w i t h o u t i n s u r i n g y o u r c r o p s .
5.
You s h o u ld i n s u r e t h e -bum per c r o p s .
6.
As a f a r m e r y o u s h o u ld e x p e c t t o l o s e p a r t o f a c r o p o n c e i n a w h i l e .
7.
You s h o u ld i n s u r e a t a l e v e l t h a t w i l l c o v e r c a s h c o s t s ,
e x p e n s e s , o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , b u t e x c lu d i n g d e p r e c i a t i o n ) .
8.
You s h o u ld c a r r y some k i n d o f r e s e r v e s t o h e lp c o v e r o c c a s i o n a l p o o r
y i e l d s , and n o t i n s u r e y o u r c r o p s .
9.
You s h o u ld u s e i n s u r a n c e on y o u r c r o p s o n ly i n e x tre m e c a s e s .
(liv in g
The f a c t o r s u s e d i n t h e c o n ti n g e n c y t a b l e s t o co m p are w i t h s c a l e s c o r e s
and t o t e s t f o r a s s o c i a t i o n a r e l i s t e d b e lo w .
1.
Y e a r s t h e r e s p o n d e n t h ad o p e r a t e d t h e f a r m .
2.
W h e th e r t h e r e s p o n d e n t w as o w n e r, p a r t o w n e r, o r t e n a n t .
3.
Y e a rs o f e d u c a tio n .
4.
The v a lu e o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s f a r m .
5.
The r e s p o n d e n t s n e t w o r th .
6.
The r e s p o n d e n t s u s e o f c r e d i t .
7.
The r e s p o n d e n t s g r o s s incom e f o r 1958.
8.
The r e s p o n d e n t s o f f f a r m in co m e .
9.
The num ber o f b u s h e l s o f w h e a t t h e r e s p o n d e n t f e l t h e n e e d e d t o c o v e r
h is o p e ra tin g e x p e n se s.
TO.
W h e th e r a c r e d i t o r h ad a s k e d t h e r e s p o n d e n t t o c a r r y c r o p in s u r a n c e
w ith h is lo a n .
11.
W h e th e r t h e r e s p o n d e n t k e p t r e c o r d s .
— 76 -
TABLE I , APPENDIX A .— OBSERVED AND EXPECTED VALUES FOR EDUCATION AND
SCALE SCORE
Sc a l e
sc o re
-i1
0
5
6
7 - 8
O b se rv ed
Y e a rs
U nder
8
48
23
'
15
18
G t n 12
24
20
28
31
S c a le
sc o re
O ver
12
9
17
.10
8
E x n e n te d
Y e a rs
U nder
8
' 0 - 4
5
6
3 3 .5 6 1
2 4 .8 6 0
2 1 .9 6 0
7 - 8
2 3 .6 1 7
C a lc u la te d c h i- s q u a r e 24. 00, ta b u la te d c h i- s q u a re
6 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m 1 2 .5 9 2 .
O ver
PB
Q t n 12
3 3 .2 3 9
2 4 .6 2 1
2 1 .7 4 9
2 3 .3 9 0
1 4 .1 9 9
1 0 .5 1 7
9 .2 9 0
9 .9 9 2
( . 05) w ith
TABLE I I , APPENDIX A .— OBSERVED AND EXPECTED VALUES FOR USE OF CREDIT AND
SCALE SCORE
I
Y es
30
15
26
■ 16
E x p e n te d
C r e d i t u se
S c a le
sn o re
No
I -< h
7 - 8
No
51
45
27
41
,
0
0 -4
5
6
O b serv ed
C r e d it 1 u s e
1
1
1
Sc a l e
sn o re
Y es
5 2 .9 2 4
3 9 .2 0 3
3 4 .6 2 9
3 7 .2 4 3
5
6
7 - 8
C a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e 8 .6 7 , t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e
3 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m 7 .8 1 5 .
2 8 .0 7 5
2 0 .7 9 6
1 8 .3 7 0
1 9 .7 5 6
( .0 5 ) w i t h
TABLE I I I , APPENDIX A .— OBSERVED AND EXPECTED VALUES FOR GROSS INCOME AND
' SCALE SCORE
S c a le
sc o re
0 —4
5
6
7 - 8
O b se rv e d
G ro ss incom e f i n t h o u s a n d s )
1 -1 0 1 1 -1 9 2 0 -3 9 40 and
<
.
over
11
6
39'
25
21
21'I
17
2
2
16
I ..
14
12
11
31
3
S c a le
sc o re
0 - 4
• 5
6
7 - 8
E x p e c te d
G ro ss in n ome f i n t h o u s a n d s )
1 -1 0 1 1 -1 9 2 0 -3 9 40 a n d
over
2 8 .0 8 1 7 .4 3 3 1 .9 5
3 .5 5
2 0 .8 0
2 .6 3
1 2 .9 1
2 3 .6 7
2 .3 2
1 8 .3 7
1 1 .4 0 2 0 .9 0
1 9 .7 6
C a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e 2 1 .4 1 , t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e
9 d e g r e e s o f freedom : 1 6 ,9 1 9 .
1 2 ,2 6
( . 05) w ith
2 2 .4 8
2 .5 0
- 77 -
TABLE IV . APPENDIX A .— OBSERVED AND EXPECTED VALUES FOR HAS CREDITOR ASKED
FOR CROP INSURANCE AHD SCALE SCORE
O b se rv ed
Has c r e d i t o r a s k e d f o r c r o p
S c a le
sc o re
S c a le
s c o re
1nsurance
5
6
7 - 8
Y es
I
O
i
O
No
12
3
12
6
69
■57
41
51
*
5
6
7 -8
C a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e 8 .2 6 , t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e
3 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m 7 .8 1 5 .
TABLE V.
CT-
7 0 .3 5
52.11
4 6 ,0 3
49.51
( .0 5 ) w i t h
1
E x p e c te d
S
iz
e
o f fa rm f c r o n a c r e s )
S c a le
U
nder
60011 bO- 1 4 0 0 sc o re
600
1 0 9 9
1 3 9 9
2499
1 8 .0 7 2 9 . 0 4 1 0 .3 3 2 3 .5 6
5
1 3 .3 9 2 1 .5 1
7 .6 5
1 7 .4 5
6
1 1 .8 3 1 9 .0 0
6 .7 6
1 5 .41
1 2 .7 2 2 0 .4 4
1 6 .5 8
7 .2 7
0
I
CO
I
CO
£>
, O b se rv e d
S i z e o f fa r m f c r o n a c r e s )
11001400 U nder
600
IIQQ
2499
20
.8
24
29
21
12
13
14
81'
7
24
14
21
7
25
4
O
0 - 4
5
6
10 .6 5
7 .8 8
6 .9 7
7 .4 9
APPENDIX A. — OBSERVED AND EXPECTED VALUES FOR SIZE OF FARM AND
SCALE SCORE
8 2
S c a le
sc o re
E x p e c te d
Has c r e d i t o r a s k e d f o r
c ro p in s u ra n c e
No
Yes
C a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e 2 3 .7 5 , t a b u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e ( . 0 5 ) w i t h
9 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m 1 2 .5 9 2 .
- 78 -
APPENDIX B
The p a i r e d c o m p a r is o n s u s e d i n t h e s tu d y a r e l i s t e d b e lo w .
The
r e s p o n d e n t w as a s k e d t o c h o o s e t h e f a c t o r h e p r e f e r r e d fro m e a c h p a i r .
S p a c e was p r o v id e d f o r t h e e n u m e r a to r t o c h e c k t h e i n d i c a t e d f a c t o r .
P a i r s f o r H a z a rd s
d r o u th
' w in d and f l o o d i n g
h a il
w in te r k i l l
w in d and f l o o d i n g
h a il
a ll ris k s
d r o u th
d r o u th
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e
w in te r k i l l
a ll ris k s
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e
d r o u th
h a il
a ll ris k s
/
w in d and f l o o d i n g
d o u r th
w in te r k i l l
w in te r k i l l
w in d and f l o o d i n g
w in te r k i l l
a ll ris k s
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e
w in d and f l o o d i n g
h a il
' a l l ris k s
i n s e c t and d i s e a s e
h a il
P a irs f o r A lte rn a tiv e s
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
s h o rt-te rm c r e d it
s h o rt- te r m c r e d i t
b e lt tig h te n in g
o f f farm j obs
c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
s t o r e d g r a i n an d f e e d
c r o p o r c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e
o f f farm j obs
s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d
c ro p o r c r o p - h a il in s u ra n c e
o f f farm ' j o b s
- 79 c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
s h o rt-te rm c r e d it
s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d
b e lt tig h te n in g
s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d
c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
b e lt tig h te n in g
c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
s t o r e d g r a i n and f e e d
c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
c ro p o r c r o p - h a il in s u ra n c e
b e lt tig h te n in g
s h o rt- te r m c r e d i t
p f f fa rm j o b s
c a s h , s t o c k s and b o n d s
c ro p o r c r o p - h a i l in s u ra n c e
s h o rt-te rm c r e d it
c ro p o r c r o p - h a il in s u ra n c e
s t o r e d g r a i n an d f e e d
s h o rt-te rm c r e d i t
b e lt tig h te n in g
o f f fa rm j o b s
c ro p o r c r o p - h a il in s u ra n c e
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
o f f fa rm j o b s
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
b e lt tig h te n in g
d i v e r s i f i e d f a r m in g
TABLE I a 5 APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AMD NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 4 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S # I
a/
$
' $With A l l
$
s With no
*
and
Yr» s Y ield . s insurance s cron h a il
:
:
:
: Net s
s Net
s
5
s? faims
s farm
slllht.i Bar.s Exp.s in c .s Exp.g in c .
4 .0
5 .4 2465
8 .3 do
6 .2
1 0 .4 13.9 do
19.5 2 6 .1 do
2 3 .8 31.9 do
20.1 26.9 do
1 9 .8 2 6 .8 do
12.9 1 7 .3 do
9 .6 12.8 do
1 2 .7 17,0 do
5 .4
7 .2 do
4 .1
5 .5 do
1 9 .4 2 6 ,0 do
1 3 .5 18.1 do
8 .6 1 1 .5 do
27.1 ;36.3 do
•8 .1 510.8 do
25*6 3 4 .3 do
15.1 2 0 .2 do
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
a /
A
-1588
- 951
269
2912
4163
3085
2999
997
34
937
-1183
-1561
2885
1171
- 255
5119
-.4 0 2
4685
1633
c h a rg e o f $883 i s
b / $ 2 3 7 5 w as a d d e d t o
2845
2845
2845
2832
2820
2807
2794
2782
2769
2756
2807
2807
2807
2794
2782
2769
2756
2744
2731
fig u re d
- 985
- 902
- Ill
2545
3808
2743
2670
680
- 270
646
- 895
- 944
2543
842
- 572
4815
- 693
4406
1367
in to
th e
r
i s k ?
s
$
«
% With
sWith A llr is k s Accumulated b/Accumulated b /s
scrap, h a il s
» Gross S a v in a s ,N e t Savinas »
t
s Net $
: Net . Withs
With -Withs With
»
$
. farm• farm- no s A llr is k s no - A llr is k sExp^s in c .s E x p , s in c . - in s .? . in s , s in s .g . in s , s
2592
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
fa rm
each y e a r’ s expenses to
-1715
-1078
142
2785
4036
2958
2872
870
- 93
810
-1310
-1688
2758
1044
- 382
4992
529
4558
1506
2717 - 857 -3080
2717 - 774 -5223
2717
17 -6746
2672 -5326
2705
2693
3935 -2655
2680
2870 -1062
2797
445
2667
807 - 50
2655
2642 - 143 -1508
773 -2 0 6 3
2629
2680 - 768 -4738
2680 - 817 -7791
2680
2670 -6398
2667
969 -6719
2655 - 445 -8466
2642
4942 -5839
2629 - 566 -6929
2617
4533 -3736
2604
1494 -3595
-2349
-4615
-6090
-4910
-2467
-1089
216
- 469
-2104
-2823
-5083
-7392
-6214
-6737
-8674
-5224
-7282
-4241
-4239
e x p e n s e s .f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n ,
c o v e r fa m ily l i v i n g
expenses.
- 3963 - 3232
- 7289 - 6381
- 9395 - 8739
- 8858 - 8442
- 7070 - 6882
- 6360 - 6387
- 5736 - 5965
- 7114 - 7533
- 9455 -10051
-10893 -11653
-14451 -14796
-18387 -17988
-17877 -17693
-19081 -19099
-21711 -21919
-18967 -19352
-21744 ■-22293
-19434 -20135
-20176 -21016
TABLE I b s APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AND NET -FARM INCOME FOR THE 8 3 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S # T a /
.
With no
Y ield
insurance
! Net
! farm
! Whto Bar. -Exp. : in c .
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13.
14
15
16
17
18
19
4 .0
6 .2
1 0 .4
1 9 .5
23.8
20 a
19.8
12.9
9 .6
12.7
5 .4
4 .1
1 9 .4
13.5
8 .6
27.1
8 .1
2 5 .6
15.1
• 5 .4 4088
8 .3 do
13.9 do
26.1 do
31.9 do
26.9 do
26.8 do
17.3 do
12.8 do
17.0 do
7 .2 do
5 .5 do
26-. 0 ; d0
18.. I do
11.5 do
3 6 .3 do
10.8 do
3 4 .3 do
2 0 .2 do
- 2259
- 930
1612
.7126
9735
7489
7307
3132
1125
3007
- 1417
- 2201
7068
3494
523
11732
216
10823
4459
3/
^ c h a rg e o f $1428 i s
b/
$2375 w as ad d ed to
s With AllrIskT
s
and:
With
!With A llrisk!A ccum ulatedb/iA ccum ulatedb/
5 cron h a il
!
Net
Net ;
i Net !With: With :Witht With
farm
farm :
S.
:farm : no !A llr is k : no iA llr is k
! -Exp. !...in c ,' !E xp.! .in c .! Exp. !in c . : i n s . : i n s.
: i n s .: in s .
4878
4878
4878
4831
4804
4778
4752
4725
4699
4673
4778
4778
4778
4752
4726
4699
4673
4647
4620
fig u re d
- 977
- 806
841
6383
9019
6799
6643
2521
504
2217
- 791
- 891
6378
2830
- 114
11121 .
" 369
10264
3927'
in to
e a c h y e a r 's
th e
4352
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
fa rm
ex p en ses to
- 2523 4593
- 1194 4593
. 1348 4593
6862 4567
9471 4540
7225 4514
7043 4488
2868 4461
861 4435
2743 4409
- 1681 4514
- 2465 4514
6804 4514
3230 4488
259 4461
11468 4435
48 4409
10559 4383
4195. 4356
- 711 - 3196 - 1648
- 504 - 5063 - 3125
1107 ^ 4388 - 29556646.
1801
2754
9283
10599 11000
7063
17148 17226'
6908
23515 23197
2759
25710 25019
778
25898 24860
2686
27968 26609
- 527
25614 25145
- 627
22476 23581
6642
28607 29286
3094
31164 31443
150
30750 30656
41545 41078
11359
40824 40036
- 105
10528
50710 49627
41-91, 54232 52881
e x p e n s e s »f o r d e p r e c ia tio n *
c o v e r fa m ily
liv in g
expenses„
-
4634
7939
8702
3951
3409
8523
13455
14212
12962
13594
9802
5226
9919
110.38;
. 918©
18543
16384
24832
26916
-
3086
6001
7269
2998
3910
8598
13131
13515
11918
12229
8327
5325
9592
10311
8086
17070
14590
22743
24559
1
ooI
TABLE I c 9 APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 2 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
........... ' YIELD SE R IE S # I
a/
s
I
Yr6 s
;
'$ ’
sWith- A llr is k s
$
t
•
s With no s
and
s M th
sWith A lI r i sksAccumula t ed b/Accumulated b /
Y ield
s insurance s crop h a il scrop h a il :
sGross Savings; Net Savinas
$
s
s Net s
; Het ;
s Net ?
$ Net sWith; With :M th ; M th
farm;
s farm s
; farms
s farms no s A llr is k s no ; A llr is k
s Wht6 a Bar, s Exp . ; in c .s Exo._s in c . ; Hxp ©o in c . s
s in c . s i n s . s
in s . s i n s . s
in s .
4 .0
I
2
6 .2
3 1 0 .4
4 19.5
5 2 3 .8
6 . 20.1
7 19.8
8 12.9
9 .6
9
10 1 2 .7
5 ,4
11
12
4 .1
13 1 9 .4
L4 13.5
15
8 .6
16 27.1
,1-7 ,8 .1
18 2 5 .6
19 15.1
5 .4
8 .3
13.9
2 6 .1
31.9
26.9
26.8
1 7 .3
12.8
17,0
7 .2
5 .5
26.0
18.1
11.5
3 6 .3
10.8
34.3,
2 0 .2
5583
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-2938
-1018
2656
10627
14397
11152
10889
4854
1951
4674
-1722
-2854
10543
5378
1081
17285
640
15971
6773
a /
A c h a rg e o f $1981 i s
b /
$ 2 3 7 5 w as a d d e d t o
6680
6680
6680
6642
6604
6566
6528
6490
6451
6413
6566
6566
6566
6528.
6490
6451
6413
6375
6337
fig u re d
-1065
- 820
1559
9478
13376
10169
9944
3947
1083
3844
- 801
- 944
9598
4471
213
16455
- 152
15179
6019
in to
fa rm
5977
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-3332
-1412
2262
10233
14003
10758
10495
4460
1557
4280
-2116
-3248
10149
4984
687
16891
246
15577
6379
6286
6286
6286
6248
6210
6172
6134
6096
6057
6019
6172
6172
6172
6134
6096
6057
6019
5981
5943
- 671 -3332 -1065
- 426 -4744 -1885
1953 -2482 - 325
9962
7751
9243
13770 21754 22619
10563 32512 32788
10338 43007 42732
4341 47467 46679
1477 49024 47762
4238 53304 51606
- 407 51188 50805
- 550 47940 49861
9954 58089 59421
4827 63073 63854
568 63760 64028
16811 80651 80445
204 80897 80255
15573 96474 95434
6413 102853 101453
ex p en ses, fo r d e p re c ia tio n ,
each y e a r’s ex p en ses to
c o v e r fa m ily l i v i n g e x p e n s e s «
-5313
-8706
-8425
- 173
11849
20626
29140
31619
31195
33494
29397
24168
32336
35339
34045
48955
47220
60826
65224
-3046
-5847
-6269
1318
12713
20901
28864
30830
29932
31795
29013
26088
33667
36119
34312
48743
46577
59775
63813
TABLE I d ,
APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 7 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S # I a /
s
sWith A llr is k s
%
%
" s
s
With no
a
and _ a With _ sWith AllriskaAccumulatedb/aAccumulated b /
Yr. a
Y ield
a
8
S
a Net a
a Net a
.a Neta
a N et. aWitha With
aWitha With
S
5
S
a farm a
a farma
a farm a
a.farm a no a A llrisk a no a A llr is k
s Wht. sBar.s Exp. a .in c . a Exp. a in c . aExp.a in c . a Exp. ain c . ain s .a i n s . . ain s.a in s .
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8.
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
4 .0
6 .2
10.4
1 9 .5
23.8
20.1
19.8
12.9
9 .6
1 2 .7
5 .4
4 .1
1 9 .4
13.5
8 .6
27.1
8 .1
25.6
15.1
5 .4
8 .3
13.9
26.1
31.9
26.9
26.8
17.3
12.8
17.0
7 .2
5 .5
26.0
18.1
11.5
36.3
10.8
34.3
2 0 .2
7364• -3613
do - 890
do
4321
do 15623
do 20970
do 16366
do 15995
do
7436
do
3321
do
7180
do -1889
do -3496
-- d o.. -15507
do
8180
do
2087
do 25064
do
1460
do 23204
do 10157
8896
8896
8896
8842
8788
8734
8680
8626
8572
8518
8734
8734
8734
8680
8626
8572
8518.
8464
8410
- 936
- 587
2789
14145
19946
14996
14679
6174
2113
6029
- 561
- 764
14137
6864
825
23856
306
22104
9111
7921
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-4170
-1447
3764
15066
20413
15809
15438
6789
2764
6623
-2446
-4053
14950
7623
1530
24507
903
22647
9600
8339
8339
8339
8285
8231
8177
8123
8069
8015
7961
8177
8177
8177
8123
8069
8015
7961
7907
7853
- 379 - 3482
- 30 - 4241
3346
211
14702 15965
20103 37066
15553 53563
15236 69689
6731 77256
2670 80708
6583 88019
4 86261
- 207 82896
14694 .98534
7421 106845
1382 109063
24413 134258
863 135849
22661 159184
9668 169472
-
244 - 5988 - 2754
143 - 9253 - 5159
3334 - 7307 - 4188
18167
5941
8139
38401 24536
25867 .
54085- 38527
39045
69452 52147
51906
76314 57208
56262
79115 58154
56557
85829 62959
59865
85956 58695
57486
85880 52824
54904
100705 65956 ' 6 7 2 2 3
108257 71761
72269
109770 71473
71276
134314 94162
93314
135308 93247
91802
158100 114076 112088
167899 121858 119381
a/
A charge o f $1981 i s figu red in to farm expenses for d ep r e cia tio n .
'2 /
$2375 was added to each y e a r 's expenses to cover fam ily liv in g expenses.
g
g
a
a
a
TABLE . I I a j APPENDIX C=-EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 4 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S # L a /
s
. . . . . ..
: With no
Y ield
; insurance
Yr * s
S
S
S
S
Net
;
S
S
: farm
s Wht * s B a r .; Exo.: in c .
o
S
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
3 .2
17.9
11.4
9 .1
19.5
30.5
19.9
18.6
25.9
14.1
15.5
27.0
2 0 .7
14.5
22.0
1 8 .4
22.1
36.9
17.3
24.9
0
8
0
0
3 1 .2
20.5
24.9
26.5
0
25.9
2 6 .0
Q
5 0 .3
0
12.5
0
0
4 1 .2
12.4
2 9 .8
2765 -2339
2630 1003
2765 - 591
2765 -1083
2830 2137
2830 4114
2830 2007
2830 1784
2765 2498
2830
804
2830 1107
2765 2732
2830 3046
2765
69
2830 2030
2765
900
2765 1687
2830 6187
2830 1024
2830 3239
a/
A c h a r g e o f $ 1 ,3 0 7 i s
b/
$ 2 ,3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
sWith A llr is k s
s
and
s With
sWith AllrisksAccumulatedb/sAccumulated. b /
s cr o D h a il s croc h a il s
sGross Savings: Mp+ Savings
:
s Net S
S
Nets
s Net sWith: With
sWith: With
S
: farm S
I farms
s farm s no s A llr isk s no s A llr is k
; Exd =S- In c . sEXD. s in c . s Exd . s in e . s i n s . s in s .
s i n s . s in s .
3065
3120
3055
3065
3120
3110
3099
3089
3014
3069
3059
2983
3038
2963
3028
2963
2963
3028
3028
3028
fig u re d
-1137
703
- 881
- 354
1847
3834
1738
1525
2249
565
878
2514
2838
402
1832
1442
1489
5989
1710
3041
in to
th e
2861
2926
2861
2861
2926
2926
2926
2926
2861
2926
2926
2861
2926
2861
2926
2861
2861
2926
2926
2926
fa rm
each y e a r’ s ex p en ses to
-2435
907
- 687
687
2041
4018
1911
1688
2402
708
1011
2636
2950
1035
1934
2284
1591
6091
2696
3143
2969
3034
2959
2969
3034
3014
3003
2993
2918
2973
2963
2887
2942
2867
2932
2867
2867
2932
2932
2932
-1041
799
-■ 785
- 258
1933
3930
1834
1621
2345
661
974
2610
2934
498
1928
1538
1585
6085
1766
3137
-3392
-3442
5086
-7222
-6138
-3077
-2123
-1392
53
- 196
- 142
1537
3530
2546
3523
3370
4004
9138
9109
11295
-2094
-2348
-4186
-5497
-4617
-1710
- 959
- 391
901
509
430
1987
3868
2848
3623
3368
3900
8932
8801
10885
ex p en ses fo r d e p re c ia tio n *
c o v e r fa m ily liv in g
ex p enses,
- 4699 - 3401 r
- 6056 - 4962
- 9007 - 8107
-12450 -10725
-12673, -11152
-10919 - 9582
-11272 -10108
-11848 -10847 '
-11710 -10862
-13266 -12561
-14519 -13947
-14147 -13697
-13461 -13123
-15752 -15450
-16082 -15882
-17542 -17444
-18215 -18219
-14388 -14494
-15724 -15932
-14845 -15155
TABLE I I b 9 APPENDIX C - -EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 8 3 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD SE R IE S '# I f /
. .. 5'
s
Y r.;
:
s
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
L.-
:
. - . T
V. ..L- ' sWith. A lir is k s .,,
s With no_
Y ield ; insurance
•
:
S .. s Net
s
:
s farm
Wht. ;B ar.s Exp.; in c .
3 .2
'0
8
17.9
11.4
0
0
9.-1
19.5
3 1 .2
30.5
20.5
19.9
2 4 .9
18.6
26.5
0
25.. 91 4 .1
2 5 .9
15.5
2 6 .0
27.0
0
20.7
5 0 .3
14.5
022.0
12.5
0
1 8 .4
22.1
0
4 1 .2
36.,9
17.3 ■ 1 2 .4
29.8
24.9
4552
4672
4552
4552
4672
4672
4672
4672
4552
4672
4672
4552
4672
4552
4672
4552
4552
46724672
4672
;
s
:
;
;
and _ s With
sWith A lIri-srk:Aceumulatedb/;Accumulatedb/;
s crop h a il scrop ha i l ; ____________ sGross Savings; Net Savinas ;
;
; N et's .. ; Net;
; Net sWith; With ;With:
With ;
;
s farm ;
; farm;
:farm ; no sA llr isk ; no ;A llr is k ;
; Exp.; in c . ;E xp.; in c .; Exp. ;in c . ; in s .s in s , s in s .; in s . ;
- 3662 5159
' 3330 5279
11 5117
- 1035-5159
5684 5258
9824 5237
5416 5215
4952 5194
6444 5053
2905 5152
3535 5131
6934 4989
7541 5088
1369 4947
5474 5067
3105 4947
4753. 4947
. 14139 5067
3374 5067
7989 5067
- 1129
2723
- 576
506
5098
9259
4873
4430
'5943
2425
3076
6497
7155
2083
5079
4256
4358
13744
4827
7594
4752 - 3862 4959 - 929 - 3982 - 1250- - 6022 - 3289
4872
3130 5058
2944 - 974 .1373- - 5052 - 2705
4?52 - 211 4917 - 376 - 1306
676 - 7423 - 5441
4752
714 4959 - 1243 - 2662 - 888 -10818 - 9044
4872. 5414 5058.. 5298
2701
4089 - 7494 - 6106
4872
9624 5037
9459 12204 13227
30
993
4872
5216 5015
5073 . 17299 17979
3026
3706.
4872
4752 4994
4630 21930 22288
5618- ' 5976
4752
6244 4853
6143 28053 28110
9702
9759
4872
2705 4952
2625 30637 30414 10247 10024
4872
3335 4931
3276 33851 33369 11422 10940
4752
6734 4789
6697 40464 39745 15996 15277
4872
7371 4888
7355 47684 46779 21177 20276
4752
2 7 1 5 - 4747
1174 48732 47632 20186 19086
4872
5274 4867
5279 53885 52590 23300 22005
4752
2905 4747" . 2910 56669 55179 24045 22555
4752
4553 4747
4558 61101 59416 26438 24753
4872 13939 4867 13944 74919 73039 38217 36337
4872
5022 4867
3179 77972 75897 39231 37156
4872
7789 4867
7794 85640 83370 44860 42590
s / A charge o f $2,039 i s figu red in to th e farm expenses fo r d e p r e cia tio n .
k / $2,360 was added to. each y e a r 's expenses to cover fam ily .liv in g expenses.
TABLE I I c 9 APPENDIX C==EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 2 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARM' USING
YIELD S E R IE S # I
a /
r
""
8
s W ith no
Y r, s
Y ie ld
s in s u ra n c e
S
S
8
s N et
S
8
s farm
s "Wht. s B a r. « _ E x d . s i n c .
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
3 ,2
1 7 .9
1 1 .4
9 .1
1 9 .5
3 0 .5
1 9 .9
1 8 .6
2 5 .9
1 4 .1
1 5 .5
2 7 .0
2 0 .7
1 4 .5
2 2 .0
1 8 .4
2 2 .1
3 6 .9
1 7 .3
2 4 .9
0
8
0
0
3 1 .2
2 0 .5
2 4 .9
2 6 .5
0
2 5 .9
2 6 .0
0
5 0 .3
0
1 2 .5
0
0
4 1 .2
1 2 .4
2 9 .8
5942
6115
-4 6 5 2
5458
5942
629
5942
6115
6115
6115
6115
5942
6115
6115
5942
6115
5942
6115
5942
- 852
8856
14848
5942
6115
6115
6115
8471
7797
9967
4838
5750
10674
11579
2626
8557
5136
7520
21082
5521
12191
a/
A c h a r g e o f $ 2 90 3 9 i s
b/
$ 2 3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
s ¥ ith A llris k ?
" ™ ”
~
™
”
”
»
s"
and
: W ith
sW ith A llr is k s A c c tim u la te d b /A o c u m u la te d b / s
8 c ro o h a i l
s c ro p h a i l s
s.G ross S a v in a s s N et S a v in a s «
S
s N et s
s N et s
: N e t sW ith s W ith sW ith s W ith
$
t farm 3
S
s farm ?
s farm » no s A l l r i s k s no s A l l r i s k s
s E xo. s i n c . 8E xp. Is i n c . ,8 Exp. s i n c . s i n s . s i n s .
s in s .?
in s .
s
6796
6969
6765
6796
6938
6908
6877
6846
6643
6785
6754
6551
6693
6490
6663
6490
6490
6663
6663
6663
fig u re d
- 963
4604
- 194
1401
8033
14055
7709
7066
9266
4168
5111
10065
11001
3682
8009
6824
6972
20534
7646
11643
in to
th e
6231
6404
6231
6231
6404
6404
6404
6404
6231
6404
6404
6231
6404
6231
6404
6231
6231
6404
6404
6404
-4 9 4 1
5169
340
1678
8567
14559
8182
7508
9678
4549
5461
10385
11290
3941
8268
7083
7231
20793
7905
11902
6507
6680
6476
6507
6649
6619
6588
6557
6354
6496.
6465
6262
6404
6201
6374
6201
6201
6374
6374
6374
- 674 - 4589
4893
932
1624
95
-1 1 2 9
835
8322
9754
14344 24655
7998 33199
7355 41049
9555 51069
4457 55960
5409 61760
10354 72490
11290 84122
2367 86801
8298 95411
4877 100600
7261 108173
20823 129308
5262 134882
11932 147126
fa rm e x p e n s e s f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n *
each y e a r’s expenses to
c o v e r fa m ily
liv in g .
- 6 2 1 .- 7 0 1 2
4325 -3 9 1 4
4473 -5645
3397 -8 8 5 7
11772 -2 3 6 1
26116 10127
34114 16238
41522 21675
51130 29282
55640 31760
61 1 0 2 35150
71509 43464
82852 52683
85272 52949
93623 59146
98553 61922
105867 67082
126690 85804
132005 88965
143990 98796
-3 0 3 0
- 497
-2 7 6 2
-6 2 5 1
- 289
11696
17333
22328
29523
31620
34669
42663
51593
51600
57538
60055
64956
83419
86321
95893
tPa BLE
I I d 9 APPENDIX G— EXPENSES AND M FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 7 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARE USING
YIELD SE R IE S # I
a /
$
s
Yr „ t
Y ie ld .
s s
s s sW h t.s B a r .
$
s W ith no
a in s u ra n c e
s
s N et
s
s
farm
s E x p .si i n c .
$ ¥ ith A llr is k ?
:
s
g
s
and
s W ith
sW ith A llr is k ? A c c u m u la te d b /A c c u m u la te d b /
s c ro p h a i l
sc ro p h a i l a
: G ro s s S a v in a s ? N e t S a v in g s
s
s N et s
$ N e ts
s N e t sW iths W ith s W ith s W ith
»
s -farm »
: farm ?
s farm ? no ?A l l r i s k s
no ? A l l r i s k
s E xp. s i n c . s E x p .<t i n c . s
Exp,. s i n c . s i n s . s
i n s . :r i n s . s
in s.
- X.
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
3 .2
1 7 .9
1 1 .4
9 .1
1 9 .5
3 0 .5
1 9 .9
1 8 .6
2 5 .9
1 4 .1
1 5 .5
2 7 .0
2 0 .7
14..5
2 2 .0
1 8 .4
2 2 .1
3 6 .9
1 7 .3
2 4 .9
0
8
0
0
3 1 .2
2 0 .5
2 4 .9
2 6 .5
0
2 5 .9
2 6 .0
0
5 0 .3
0
1 2 .5
0
0
4 1 .2
1 2 .4
2 9 .8
8020
8266
8020
8020
8266
8266
8266
8266
8020
8266
8266.
8020
8266
8020
8266
8020
8020
8266
8266
8266
-6 1 9 4
8138
1291
- 810
12966
21452
12416
11461
14524
7267
8560
15528
16833
4119
12533
7679
11055
30298
8228
17692
a /
A c h a rg e o f $3263 i s
b/
$ 2 3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
9230
9476
9186
9230
9432
9388
9343
9299
9009
9211
9166
8876
9078
8788
9034
8788
8788
9034
9034
9034
fig u re d
- 968
6928
125
2384
11800
20330
11339
10428
13535
6322
7660
14672
16021
5624
11765
10079
10287
29530
11248
16924
in to
th e
8430
8676
8430
8430
8676
8676
8676
8676
8430
8676
8676
8430
8676
8430
8676
8430
8430
8676
8676
8676
fa rm
e a c h y e a r es e x p e n s e s t o
-6 6 0 4
7728
881
2775
12556
21042
12006
11051
14114
6857
8150
15118
16423
5982
12123
10437
10645
29888
11606
17282
8820
906,6
8776
8820
9022
8978
8933
8889
8599
8801
8756
8466
8668
8378
8624
8378
8378
8624
8624
8624
- 558
7338
535
-1201
12210
20740
11749
10838
13945
6732
8070
15082
16431
3761
12175
7321
10697
29940
7870
17334
- 5291
345
3750
8586
5 9 4 4 10024
6037
9726
19906 22839
42261 44482
55580 5 7 1 3 4
67944- 68875
83371 83723
91541 91358
1 0 1 0 0 4 '1 0 0 3 3 1
117435 116316
135171 133650
140193 138314
153629 151392
162211 159616
174169 171216
205370 202059
214501 210832
233096. 229069
expenses fo r d e p re c ia tio n ,
c o v e r fa m ily l i v i n g
expenses.
-
8554
2776
3845
7015
3591
22683
32739
41840
54004
58911
65111
78279
92752
94511
104684
110003
118698
146636
152504.
167836
- 2918
2060
235
- 3326
6524
24904
34293
42771
54356
58728
64438
77160
91231
92632
102447
107408
115745
143325
148835
163809
TABLE I l i a ,
APPENDIX C -= E 1XPE n SES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 4 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD SE R IE S # 2 - a /
I
1
i
With no
s
Y ield
insurance
S
:
Net
5
■/.
$
i farm
; Wht. sBar. JEXp.: __inc.
:
£
i
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 ’
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
IB
19
•
3 .0
3.9 2465.
7 .8 10.1 do
8 .5 11.1 do
19.5 2 5 .4 do
17.8 23.1 do
IOoV 13.9 do
2 1 .7 2 8 .2 do
11.1 ’ 14.4 do
11.6 15.1 do
1 0 .6 13.8 do
6 .8
8 .8 do
4 .1
5 .3 do
19.3 2 5 .1 do
7 .1
9 .2 do
7 .0
9 .1 do
15 .9 2 0. V do
7 .9 10.3 do
2 1 .3 27.7 do
7 .3
9 .5 do
-1886
- 502
= 295
2880
2385
337
3513
450
597
308
- 791
-1570
2821
- 704
- 731
1840
- 469
3398
644
:With:- .A llrisk :
s
:
‘ .................. r
:
and
:
With . sWith A llrisk:A ccum ulatedb/:A ccum ulatedb/
.:"' crop" h a il : crop h a il :
:Gross Savings: Net Savinas
i
: Net
S
: Net s
: Net :With: With :With: With
:
:.farm i
: f arm. s
s farm 5 no : A llr is k : no :A llr is k
I Exp. : 'in c. :Exp. : i n c . : Exp, :in c . :ins'. s i n s .
: in s » : in s .
2845
2845
2845
2830
2820
2807
2794
2782
2769
2756
2807
2807
2794
2807
2807
2794
2782
2769
2807
-
-1031
- 856
- 675
2515
2030
754
3184
133
293
17
- 855
- 953
2492
- 87
— 846
2170
- 786
3094
2
2592
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-2G13
- 629
- 422
2753
2258
966
3386
323
470
181
- 9.18
-1697
2694
- 75
- 858
2372
- 596
3271
65
2719
2719
2719
2705
2693
2680
2667
2655
2642
2629
2680
2680
2667
2680
2680
2667
2655
2642
2680
905
730
- 549
2640
2157
122
3311
260
420
144
- 728
- 826
2619
- 716
- 719
1638
- 659
3221
- 707
-
-
3378
-5 3 7 5
- 7159
- 5771
- 4878
- 6033
- 4012
- 5054
5949
7133
9416
12478
11149
13345
15568
15220
17181
15275
16123
-
2 3 9 7 '- 4261 - 3280
4619 - 7138 - 6385
- 6660 - 9808 - 9309
- 5512 - 9303 - 9044
- 4847 -- 9293 - 9244
- 6217 -11331 -11497
- 4398 -10178 -10561
5630 -12103 -12676
6702 -13866 -14631
8050 -15933 -16862
10270 -19099 -19965
12588 -23044 -23166
11461 -22598 -22922
13669 -25677 -26013
15880 -28783 -29107
15734 -29318.;-29844
17883 -32162--32878'
16156 -31139 -32032
18355 -32870 -35114
-
-
a/
A charge of $1981 i s figu red in to farm expenses fo r d e p r e c ia tio n ,
b/
$2375 was added to each y e a r 's expenses to cover fam ily liv in g expenses.
TABLE I I I b 9 APPENDIX G—EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 830 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARE USING
YIELD SERIES # 2 a /
s
s
Yr,
s
s
:
Y ield
s
sWith A llr isk ?
.
s With no
s
and
? With
?With A llrisksA ccum ulated ^A ccum ulated"b /
: insurance g_crop_ h a il ?crop h a il ?
sGross Savinas? Net Savinas »
s
i Net ?
?
Net s . ?Net ?
s Net sWith? With ?With? With
?
s
fa™ 5
:
farms
sfarms
s farms no jA llr is k ? no - A llr isk $
-_inc<. - Exp. ? _ i n c . s Exp.g in c .s Exp.; in e .s ih s ..? in s , s i n s . - in s .
?
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
3 .0
3 .9
7 .8 10.1
8 .5 11.1
19.5 2 5 .4
1 7 .8 23.1
10.7 13.9
21.7 2 8 .2
11.1 1 4 .4
1 1 .6 15.1
10.6 .. 13.8
6 .8
8 .8
4 .1
5 .3
1 9 .3 25.1
7 .1
9 .2
7 .0
9 .1
15.9 20.7
7 .9 1 0 .3
.2 1 .3 2 7 .7
7 .3
9 .5 .
a/
A ch arg e , o f $1428 i s f ig u r e d i n t o t h e farm e x p e n s e s .fo r d e p r e c i a t i o n ,
b/
$2375 was added t o each y e a r 's ex p e n se s t o co v e r fa m ily l i v i n g e x p e n s e s .
4088
do
-do
"do
•- do
do
do
• do
■do
' do
- do
' do
* dO
■do
' do
Ndo
do
do :
--.do.:
-2879 4857
7 4857
437 4857
7059 4831
6027 4804
1755 4778
8378 4752
1995 4725
2300 4699
1698 4673
- 595 4778
=2220 4778
6935 4752
- 413 4778
- 471 4778
4890 4752
74 4725
8139 4699
- 290 4778
-1069 4352 -3143
.do . - 257
- 709
do
- 332
173
dp
6317
6795
5311 ' do
5763
do
2644
3070
7714
do
8114
do
1358
1731
do
1689
2036
do : 1434
1113
do - 859
- 706
= 91.0
do -2484
do
6271
6671.
897 ' do)
902
do - 735
- 687
do
5604
6004
do
- 563
- 190
do • 7875
7528
1083 4do . 1193.
4593 =805
4593 -445
4593 - 68
4567 6580
4540 5575
4514 1329
. 4488 7978
4461 1622
4435 1953
4409 1377
■4514 -442
4514 -646
4488 6535
4514 - -418
4514 -423
4488 4490
4461 . -299
4435 7792
4514 —400
-3816
-4746
-5246
876
5966
6784
14225
15283
16646
17407
15875
12718
18716
17366
15958
19911
19048
26250
25023
-1742 -5254 -3180
-3124 -7622 -5985
-4129 -9660 -8428
1514 -4876 -4223
6152 -1224 “1023
6544 -1844 -2069
13585
4159
3534
14270
3779
2781
15286
3704 . 2359
15710
3027
1361
14331
57 -1456
12748 -4538 -4477
18346
22 - 317
16991 -2766 “3110
15631 -5612 -5908
19184 -3097 -3793
17948 -5378 -6467
24803
366 -1050
23466 -2299 -3825
f—^
O
CD
i
CO.
\D
I
TABLE IIlGrst A P P E m iX C - -EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME- FOR THE 1 2 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S # - 2 , a /
Yro ;
s
:
sI
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
________ —
- ^ With no
Y ield s insurance
s
s s
Net
:
s
s farm
Whti,.sBar»s Exp,: inc»
3 ,0 " 3 .9 5583
7 ,8 10.1 do
8 ,5 11.1 d o .
19,5 2 5 .4 do
17,8 23.1 do
10,7 1 3 .9 do
2 1 ,7 2 8 .2 do
11,1 14.4 do
11,6 15.1 do
10,6 13.8 do
6 ,a
8 .8 do
4,-1.: 5 .3 do
19.3 25.1 do
7 .1
9 . 2 do
7 ,0
9 .1 do
15.9 2 0 .7 do
7 .9 10.3 do
2 1 .3 27.7 do
7 .3
9 .5 do
;With A llr is k ;
T ’
—
~
:
I
s
and
s With
sWith AllrisksAceuraulatedb/sAccuraulatedb/s
s crop h a il scrop h a il s
sGross Savings: Net Savings §
s
s Net s
s Net :
s Net sWiths With sWiths With
s
sfarm s
sfarm s
sfarm s no sA llr isk s no s A llr isk s
s Expos in c , sExp.s, incos Exp, sin e , s in s .: in s ,
s in s .: in s , s
- 3835
335
958
10532
9038
2865
12438
3210
3652 .
2780
- 534
- 2881
10352c
- 271
- 355
7395
433
12092
91
6680
6680
6680
6642
6604
6566
6528
6490
6451
6431
6566
6566
6528
6566
6566
6528
6490
6451
6566
-1200
- 685
- 139
9473
8017
4166
11493
2303
2784
1950
- 679
- 971
9407
1639
- 652
8443
- 474
11224
1910
5977
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
- 4229 6286 - 806
59 6286 - 291
255564 6286
10138 6248
9867
8644 6210
8411
4755 6172
227612044= 6134. 11887
2816 6096
-269,7
3258 6057
3178
2386 6019
2344
- 928 6172 - 285
- 3275 6172 •- 577
9958 6134-. - 9801
1619 6172 - 251
- 749 6172 - 258
8994 6134
6844
39 6096 80
11698 6057 11618
2042 6172 - 223
- 4229 - 1200
- 4288 - 1885
- 3724
2024
6414
7449
15058 15466
17529 17348
29573 28841
32389 "31144
35647 33928
38033 35878
37105 35199
33830 34228
43788 43635
43123 42990
42375 42338
49377 48788
49416 48314
61114 59538
60629 58921
a/
A change o f $1981 i s figu red in to farm expenses for d e p r e c ia tio n .
b/
$2375 was added to each y e a r 's expenses to cover fam ily liv in g expenses.
- 6210
- 8250
-- 9667
- 1510
5153
5643
18081
18916
20193
20598
17689
12433
20410
17764
15034
20054
18112
-27829
25363
- 3181
- 5847
- 7967
- 475
5561
5462
14974
15296
16099
16068
13408
10456
17882
15256
12623
17092
14637
23880
21283
TABLE I I I d s APPENDIX G— EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 7 0 0 ACRE SPRING WHEAT FARE USING
YIELD S E R IE S # 2
a/
S
S
Y r, s
S
8
sTMith Al I r i sk 8
S
8
8 m t h no
s
and
s W ith
sW ith A llr is k s A c c u m u la te d b /A c c u m u la te d b / s
sG ro ss S a v i n a s s N e t S a v in a s g
Y ie ld • 8 i n s u r a n c e
s c ro c h a i l
s c ro p h a i l s
8
8 N et 8
s N et
s N e t sW ith s W ith s W ith s W ith
8
8 N et s
%
8
8
8
%
%
s farm 8
s farm s
farm s
s farm s no s A l l r i s k s no s A l l r i s k 8
O
t IMht. s B a r . 8 Exo o s i n c . s Exd . s i n c . sEx d . 8 i n c . s Exd = » i n c . s i n s . s
in s . s in s .s
in s .
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
3 .0
7 .8
8 .5
1 9 .5
1 7 .8
1 0 .7
2 1 .7
1 1 .1
1 1 .6
1 0 .6
6 .8
4 .1
1 9 .3
7 .1
7 .0
1 5 .9
7 .9
2 1 .3
7 .3
3 .9
1 0 .1
1 1 .1
2 5 .4
2 3 .1
1 3 .9
2 8 .2
1 4 .4
1 5 .1
1 3 .8
8 .8
5 .3
2 5 .1
9 .2
9 .1
2 0 .7
1 0 .3
2 7 .7
9 .5
7364 -4 8 8 7
1030
.d o '
'
1912
.d o '
15487
'.do '
13371
do
4615
do '
do
18191
do
5103
5731
' do
4497
do
' do
— 204
' do
-3 5 3 5
15232
do
167
d6
50
' do
11040
do
‘ do
1168
17701
' do
"do ,
422
a/
A c h a rg e o f $1428 i s
b/
$2375
8896
8896
8896
8842
8788
8734
8680
8626
8572
8518
8734
8734
8680
8734
8734
8680
8626
8572
8734
fig u re d
in to
-1 1 3 1
- 393
380
14009
11947
6482
16875
3841
4523
3343
- 386
- 803
13916
2899
“ 348
12548
- 94
16493
3353
th e
7921
'.do
' do
do
' do
' do.
do."
do'
do .
do.
do"
dor
do
do
'd o
"dn
da
do '.dti.;.
fa rm
5444 8339
473 8339
1355 8339
14930 8285
12814 8231
7295 8177
17634 8123
4546 8069
5 1 7 4 . 8015
3940 7961
- 761 8 1 7 7
-4 0 9 2 8177
14675 8 1 2 3
2847 8177
- 5 0 7 8177
13307 8123
611 8069
17144 8015
3447 8177
- 5 7 4 -4 7 5 6
164 -3 5 9 5
937 -1 5 5 2
14556 14566
12504 27568
3802 32314
, 17432 50636
4398 55870
5080 61732
3900 66360
171 66287
- 246 62883
14473 78246
219 78544
109 78725
10281 89896
463 91195
17050109027
258109580
-
443
148
920
15617
28252
32185
49594
54123
59334
63365
63667
63552
78156
78506
78746
89158
89752
1.06933
107322
expenses fo r d e p re c ia tio n ,
was a d d e d t o e a c h y e a r 0S e x p e n s e s t o c o v e r f a m i l y l i v i n g e x p e n s e s .
-7 2 6 2
-8 607
-9 0 7 0
4042
15038
17278
33094
35822
39178
41300
38539
32629
45486
43278
40953
49618
48411
63737
61784
-2 9 4 9
-5 1 6 0
-6 5 9 8
5593
15722
17149
32206
34229
36934
38459
36255
33634
45732
43576
41310
49216
47304
61979
59862
i
O
I
TABLE I V a 9 APPENDIX C — EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE. 4 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD S E R IE S
2 zj
%
i
s
s W ith no
Y r. s
Y ie ld
s in s u ra n c e
s
s s
s N et
s
s
s
s
fa rm
s W ht0 s B a r =s E x p . S In c =
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
4 .0
6 .8
3 .7
2 0 .0
a/
A c h a r g e o f S l 93 0 7 i s
b/
$ 2 ,3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
2 2 .2
3 2 .6
1 9 .6
1 6 .0
1 6 .6
1 4 .4
1 3 .6
2 0 .4
2 8 .0
2 .6
19.5
1 5 .8
1 6 .8
2 9 .1
4 1 .8
1 2 .5
6 .0 2830
1 0 .2 do
5 .6 do
3 .0 do
3 3 .3 do
4 8 .9 do
2 9 .4 do
2 4 .0 do
2 4 .9 do
2 1 .6 do
2 0 .4 do
3 0 .6 do
4 2 .0 do
3 .9 do
2 9 .3 do
2 3 .7 do
2 5 .2 do
4 3 .7 do
6 2 .7 do
1 8 .8 do
- 2029
- 1289
- 2105
1279
2784
5532
2096
1144
1303
722
509
2308
4317
- 2400
2071
1091
1356
46.ip
7966
221
.
sW ith A l l r i s k s
;
s
s,
s
s
and
s W ith .. sW ith A l! r is k s A c c u m u l a t e d b /s A c c u m u la te d b /:
s c ro p h a i l
s c ro p h a i l s.
sG ro s s S a v in g s : N et S a v in g s s
s __ s N et s
s N ets
s N et ,sW ith:
sW ith :
W ith 5
s
s farm s
s farm s
s f arm s no s A l l r i s k s no s A l l r i s k :
s E x p . s i n c . sE x p .s in c...: E x p . s i n e , s in s ., s i n s . ’ s i n s , s i n s .
3130 - 1017 2926 - 2125 3034
921 - 3082 ■- 1974 - 4389
3130
52 do - 388 3034 - 849 - 5 4 2 4 ■- 3876 - 8038
3130 - 1022 do - 2201 3034 - 926 - 8 5 8 2 ■
- 5855 -1 2 5 0 3
3130
1183 3034
1075 - 8356 •- 5833 -1 3 5 8 4
979 do
3120
2494 do
2688 3024
2590 - 6625 ■- 4296 -13160
3110
5 2 5 2 do
5436 3014
5348 - 2145 ■
I - 9988
1827 do
1923 -■ 1103
3099
2000 3003
869 -1 0 2 5 2
885 do
1048 2993
981 - 1012
3089
797 -11468
1054 do
1207 2983
3079
1150 - 762
894 -12525
483 do
626 2973
3069
420 -1 4 1 6 3
579 - 1093
376 - 1637 ■- 257 -1 6 0 1 4
280 do
413 2963
3059
3048
2090 do
2212 2952
2186 - 382
800 -16066
3038
4221 2942
4205
2882
4099 do
3952 -14109
3099
409 do - 1065 3003 - 926 - 571
1973 -1 8 8 6 9
1812
do
, 1975 2993
1908
3689
447
2828 -19158
842 do
995 2983
938
485
3079
2713 -2 0 4 2 7
1551
1694
do
2973
1213
3069
788
2873 -21431
4381 do
4514 2963
3059
4477
4345
6297 -1 9 1 8 1
3048
7748 do
7870 2952
7844 11258 13669 -13575
3038
817 do
929 2942
109 10426 12144 -1 5 7 1 4
fig u re d
in to
th e
fa rm
each y e a r’ s ex p en ses to
expenses fo r d e p re c ia tio n ,
c o v e r fa m ily
liv in g
expenses.
- 3281
- 6490
- '9776
-1 1 0 6 1
-1 0 8 3 1
- 7843
- 8280
- 9659
-10869
-12650
-1 4 6 3 4
-14808
-1 2 9 6 3
-16249
-16701
-1 8 1 2 3
-1 9 2 7 0
-1 7 1 5 3
-1 1 6 6 9
-1 3 9 2 0
TABLE. I V b , APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 8 3 0 ACRE W1INTER WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD SE R IE S # 2 a /
S
S
5
S
5
s
S
’ S
8
s .Wht. s B a r , s
W ith no
in s u ra n c e
s . N et
s farm
Exp. s in c .
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
" 6 .0
1 0 .2
5 .6
3 .0
3 3 .3
3 2 .6
4 8 .9
1 9 .6
2 9 .4
1 6 .0
2 4 .0
1 6 .6
2 4 .9
1 4 .4
2 1 .6
1 3 .6
2 0 .4
3 0 .6
2 0 .4
2 8 .0
4 2 .0
2 .6
3 .9
,1 9 .5 . 2 9 .3
1 5 .8
2 3 .7
1 6 .8
2 5 .2
4 3 .7
2 9 .1
4 1 .8 " 6 2 .7
1 2 .5
1 8 .8
4672
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
a/
A c h a r g e o f $ 1 ,3 0 7 i s
b/
$ 2 ,3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
V r. s
s
Y ie ld
t
4 .0
6 .8
3 .7
2 0 .0
2 2 .2
-3 0 0 0
-1 4 5 6
-3 1 6 2
3911
7035
12770
5602
3617
3947
2735
2294
6043
10233
-3 7 7 2
5550
3506
4058
10843
17843
1691
sW ith A l l r i s k s
•
;
•
:
s
and
s W ith
sW ith A l lr is k s A c c u m u la te b /s A c c u m u la te d b /
s c ro p h a i l
s c ro p h a i l s
: G ro s s S a v in o s s N et S a v in a s
8
s N et 8
8 . N et s
s N et sW iths W ith
sW iths W ith
8
s farm 4
8 farm s
s farm 8 no s A l l r i s k s no 8 A l l r i s k
s E xp. s i n c . sE xp. 8 i n c . s E x p . s i n e . s i n s . s i n s .
s in s .s in s.
5279
5279
5279
5279
5258
5237
5215
5194
5173
5152
5131
5109
5088
5215
5194
5173
5152
5131
5109
5088
fig u re d
- 866
1366
- 878
3304
6449
12205
5059
3095
3446
2255
.1835
5606
9817
2114
5028
3005
4485
10384
17406
2955
in to
th e
4Q72
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-3200
427
-3 3 6 2
3711
6835
12570
5402
3417
3747
2535
2094
5843
10033
-.-982
5350
3306
4765
10643
17643
3171
5079
5079
5079
5079
5058
5037
5015
4994
4973
= 666
517
- 678
3504
6649
12405
5259
3302
3646
4952
2455
4931
2035
5806
4909
4888 10017
5015 - 676
4994
5228
4973
3205
4952
3778
4931 10584
4909 • 17606
4888
1475
-3 3 2 1
-5 0 9 8
-8 5 8 1
-4991
1723
14172
19453
22749
26375
28789
30762
36484
46396
42303
47532
50717
54454
64976
82498
83868
- 9 8 7 - 5360
-1 8 2 5 - 9176
-2824 -14698
359 -1 3 1 4 7
6687 - 8472
18771
1938
23709
5180
26690
6437
30015
8024
32149
8399
33863
8333
39348 12016
49044 19889
4 8 0 4 7 13757
52954 16947
55838 18093
59295 19791
69558 28274
86843 43757
87997 43088
fa rm e x p e n s e s f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n ,
each y e a r’ s ex p en ses to
c o v e r fa m ily
liv in g
expenses.
-
3026
5903
8941
7797
3508
6537
9436
10378
11664
11759
11434
14880
22537
19501
22369
23214
24632
32856
48102
47217
TABLE I V c 5 APPENDIX C— EXPENSES AND NET FARM INCOME FOR THE 1 2 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARM USING
YIELD SE R IE S # . 2
a/
t
s W ith no
Y i e ld
s in s u ra n c e
s
: N et
s
s
g
farm
s W ht. s B a r . s Exo o» i n c .
s
Yr„ s
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
4 ,0
6 ,8
3 .7
2 0 .0
2 2 .2
3 2 .6
1 9 .6
1 6 .0
1 6 .6
1 4 .4
1 3 .6
2 0 .4
2 8 .0
2 .6
1 9 .5
1 5 .8
1 6 .8
2 9 .1 .
4 1 .8
1 2 .5
6 .0
1 0 .2
5 .6
3 .0
3 3 .3
4 8 .9
2 9 .4
2 4 .0
2 4 .9
2 1 .6
2 0 .4
3 0 .6
4 2 .0
3 .9
2 9 .3
2 3 .7
2 5 .5
4 3 .7
6 2 .7
1 8 ,8
6115
do"
do
do
do .
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
-3 6 9 8
-1466
-3 9 3 2
6300
10809
19098
8736
5867
6345
4591
3954
9374
15432
-4 8 1 4
8662
5708
6505
16314
26431
3083
a/
A c h a r g e o f $ 2 ,0 3 9 i s
b /
$ 2 ,3 6 0 w as a d d e d t o
gW ith A l l r i s k s
s
s
$
.
•
and
s W ith
sW ith A llr is k s A c c u m u la te d b /A c c u m u la te d b / s
s c ro p h a i l
s c ro p h a i l s
,G r o s s S a v i n a s : N e t S a v ih a s
;
s
s N et s
s N et :
: N et • W iths- W ith gW iths lW ith
s
g
g farm s
g farm s
s farm s no s A l l r i s k : no » A l l r i s k
s Exd . ? i n c . si=XP, s i n c . s Exd . s i n c . s i n s . s 5Lns.
s in s .s in s.
6969
6969
6969
6969
6938
6908
6877
6846
6816
6785
6754
6724
6693.
6877
6846
6816
6785
6754
6724
6693
fig u re d
- 586 6404
2640 "do :
— 605 ■ do
5446
do
9986
do
18305
do
7974
do
5136
do
5644
do
3921
do
3315
do
8765
do
14854
-do
3724
do
do
7931
.5 0 0 7
do
7147
do
15675
do
25822
do
4935
do
in to
e a c h y e a r 's
th e
-3 9 8 7
1258
-4 2 2 1
6011
10520
18809
8447
5578
6056
4302
3665
9085
15143
- 778
8376
5419
7528
16025
26142
5224
6680
6680
6680
6680
6649
6619
6588
6557
6527
6496
6465
6435
6404
6588
6557
6527
6496
6465
6435
6404
- 297
— 84
- 316
3735
10275
18594
8263
5425
5933
4210
3604
9054
15143
-
3645 - 244 - 6058
5058 - 275 - 9884
8937 - 538 -1 6 1 7 6
3250 -1 2 2 3 6
2584
8278 13578 - 3787
27429 32215 12951
36218 40531 19327
42238 46109 22834
48736 52195 26819
53480 56558 28978
.57 5 8 7 60009 30572
-67114 69216 37586
82699 84512 50658
- 312 78038 84353 43480
8220 86853 92726 49782
5296 92714 98175 53130
6 1 2 4 99372 104452 57275
15964 115956 120569 71229
26111 142540 146833 95300
2794 145776 149780 96022
fa rm e x p e n s e s f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n ,
expenses to
c o v e r fa m ily l i v i n g
expenses.
-
2657
5101
7777
6402
1513
17747
23650
26715
30288
32138
33382
40076
52859
50187
56047
58983
62747
76351
100102
100536
TABLE I V d 9 APPENDIX C—-EXPENSES AND NET FABM INCOME -FQR THE 1 7 0 0 ACRE WINTER WHEAT FARE USING
YIELD SE R IE S # 2
a /
s
t
:
s
o'
jop;
■s
I UVith no
Y ie ld
g in s u ra n c e
s N et
s
s farm
s
SsW ht, s B a r . s
in c .
I
2
3
4
.5
6
4 .0
6 .8
3 .7
2 0 .0
2 2 .2
3 2 .6
7
1 9 .6
8
16..Q
1 6 .6
9
10
1 4 .4
11
1 3 .6
12 1 2 0 .4
2 8 .0
13
14
2 .6
15
1 9 .5
16
1 5 .8
17
1 6 .8
18
2 9 .1
4 1 .8
19
20
1 2 .5
6 .0
1 0 .2
5 .6
3 .0
3 3 .3
4 8 .9
2 9 .4
2 4 .0
2 4 .9
2 1 .6
2 0 .4
3 0 .6
4 2 .0
3 .9
2 9 .3
2 3 .7
2 5 .2
4 3 .7
6 2 .7
1 8 .8
8266
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
■do ,
do
do
do
do
do
=4839
“ 1674
-5 1 7 0
9329
15735
27489
12794
8726
9403
6919
6012
13701
22290
-,6422
12690
8499
96,30
23541
37889
4777
a/
A c h a r g e o f $ 2 90 3 9 i s
b /
$ 2 ,3 6 0 m s ad d ed t o
gW ith A l I r i s k s
s
and
s W ith
s W ith A llr is k s A c c u m u la te d b /A c c u m u la te d b / s
g c ro n h a l l
g c ro p h a l l s
sGross
s N et s
s N e t Si
• N e t : W ith : W ith sW ith s W ith
s
s farm s
s farm s
s farm s no s A l l r i s k i no g A l l r i s k s
s Exd . s i n c . s Exd . s i n c . s E xp.
s i n c . s in s .'e i n s .
«■ i n s . s i n s .
s
“ 432
4144
- 456
8117
14569
26367
.11 7 1 7
7693
8414
2955
9211
5974
9166
5112
9122 12845
9078 21478
8682
9343
9299 11657
7510
9255
9211 10545
9166 22641
9122 37033
9078
7409
9478
9478
9478
9478
9432
9388
9343
9299
fig u re d
in to
th e
8676
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
“ 5249
2133
“ 5580
8919
15325
27079
12384
8316
8993
6509
5602
13291
21880
“ 702
12280
8089
11080
23131
37479
781.1
9066
9066
9066
9066
9022
8978
8933
8889
8845
8801
8756
8712
8668
8933
8889
8845
8801
8756
8712
8668
“
20
285
- 44
8529
14979
26777
12127
8103
8824
6384
5522
13255
21888
- 38
12067
7920
9095
23051
37443
4375
- 3936
- 4707
“ 8974
1258
17896
'46288
59985
69614
79920
87742
94651
109261
132454
126935
140528
149930
159332
183776
222568
228248
883
2671
2930
12362
28244
55924
68954
77960
87687
94974
101399
115557
138348
139213
152183
161006
171004
194958
233304
238582
fa rm e x p e n s e s f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n ,
e a c h y e a r 8s e x p e n s e s t o
c o v e r fa m ily liv in g
expenses.
“ 7199
-1 1 2 3 3
-1 8 7 6 3
-1 1 7 9 4
1581
26710
37144
43510
50553
56112
58764
70105
90035
81253
91583
97722
104992
126173
161702
164119
-
2380
4455
6859
. 690
11929
36346
46113
51856
58320
62344
65506
76401
95929
93531
103238
108798
115533
136224
171307
173322
\o
vn
-
96
-
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MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES
^ J Sg