Derivation of a basic schedule of values by grade for the non-irrigated tillable farm land classification in Montana by Gerald Drew A THESIS Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Agricultural Economics at Montana State College Montana State University © Copyright by Gerald Drew (1960) Abstract: This study is primarily concerned with the derivation of a basic schedule of non-irrigated farm land values by grade that will reflect the relative tax paying ability of the grades. A secondary purpose of this study is to develop the methodology for using sale prices of farm land in deriving the basic schedule of farm land values. Examples of the inequalities that exist in tax levies, assessments, and classification in Montana are pointed out as evidence for the need of an adequate system for grading and valuing land according to its relative tax paying ability. The Land Reclassification Law passed by the 1957 Montana State Legislature is outlined along with a brief discussion of the duties and responsibilities of the county commissioners, county assessors, and the State Board of Equalization. Questions and assumptions concerning problems in the use of sale prices for valuing farm land, such as the overall level of prices being paid for land, the number of years and which years to use in the sample, and scarcity of bona fide sales, are discussed. The statistical analysis indicates that variables other than productivity are influencing sale prices of farm land. Variables listed as probably influencing the sale prices of farm land are size of tracts sold, acreage allotments, distance from markets, hobby farmers, buying of land for tax offset purposes, distance of acquired land from the farmstead, speculation in the land market, sentimental values, recreation and Scenery, and community attitudes. It is also possible that errors have been made in grading the land, both within counties and between counties. The real estate market is notorious for its disorganized nature. The lack of homogeneous characteristics of farms and farm land and the meager knowledge of market opportunities on the part of many buyers and sellers contribute to a wide variation in sales prices. This variation may be exaggerated in periods of somewhat feverish land market activity such as has existed in recent years. It is possible that sales data used from a different period of time might show a closer association between productivity ratings and sales prices than the poor statistical relations obtained in this study. In spite of the variations of sale price around the averages, the average sale prices found may give some useful value comparisons between classes and grades of land. Another suggestion made in this report is that the landlord share method be used to arrive at a basic schedule of values as a check against the schedule obtained by use of sales prices. DERIVATION OF A BASIC SCHEDULE OF VALUES BY GRADE FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN MONTANA by Gerald Drew '❖ A THESIS Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Agricultural Economics at Montana State College Approved: I^ad, Major Department Chairman, Examining Committee Dean, Gradua^ Division \ Bozeman, Montana December 1960 W i; (/I' •k' X TABLE OF CONTENTS Page H iii v vi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION .................................... The Problem Situation Objectives ........ Hypothesis . . . . . Procedure ........ I DISCUSSION OF LAND RECLASSIFICATION AND LAND VALUATION . . . . . . . . . .................... Procedures and Responsibilities Involved ........ . . Land Reclassification Process.......... Methods and Problems of Valuing Non-Irrigated Farm Lands . .'...................................... CO CO <1 H-- LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS........................................ LIST OF TABLES ................ AC K N O W L E D G M E N T .............................. '............... A B S T R A C T .............................. CHAPTER II. CHAPTER III. METHODS USED IN TYING LAND SALES PRICES TO A SPECIFIC G R A D E ..................... ANALYSIS OF USING MARKET PRICES BASED ON PRODUCTIVITY AS THE CRITERIA OF ARRIVING AT A BASIC SCHEDULE OF LAND VALUES BY GRADE FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION........ '............... Chouteau County ........................ . . . . . . . . •Fergus County ................................ Judith Basin County ................ . . . . . . . . . . Summary Analysis of Sale Prices Combining Sales From Chouteau, Fergus,. Judith Basin, Daniels and Teton Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ . . . . . . . . A Basic Schedule of Values . . . . . . ................ .. 11 12 13 14 21 CHAPTER IV. 26 27 32 39 43 44 CHAPTER V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . ................ Summary ......................... r. . . . . . Conclusions ............................................. Need For Further Research........................ . , . . ' 50 50 55 56 APPENDICES.................... APPENDIX A .................................. APPENDIX B .............. APPENDIX C . ............................................ ' APPENDIX D APPENDIX E .................................. 58 59 62 63 65 67 BIBLIOGRAPHY. .................................................’ 68 i »7563 .LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 1 2 3 4 5 Page The Number of Sales Taken From the Counties Involved in This Study for Years' 1950-1960 . . . . . . . . . . 9 Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices from Chouteau County on a Productivity Basis by the Equation" Y = . - 24 k 5 . 7 8 1 7 X ................................ .. . 28 Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Fergus County on a Productivity Basis by the Equation.Y = - 54,0695 + 9.2204X . . . . . . .................... 34 Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Judith Basin Cpunty on a -Productivity Basis by therEquation Y = -S- 7.03ti4 + 5.2486X............. . . . .'. . . 40 Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Chouteau, Daniels, Fergus, Judith Basin, and Tetoh Counties on a Productivity Basis by the Formula Y = - 19.74 + • 6.12 1 3 X ........ .. . . :............................ ii 45 LIST OF TABLES Number I II III . IV V VI VII VIII IX X Page TAXABLE VALUATIONS AND ACREAGE MILL LEVIES ON FARM LANDS 1950-1958 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE . . 14 SCHEDULE OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY . . . . . . . . . . . 31 TOTAL. NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID, AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRlGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSTt FICATION FOR CHOUTEAU CpUNTY'ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 SCHEDULE OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE 'PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FABM- LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR FERGUS COUNTY. . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . 36 COMPARISON OF AVERAGE PRICES PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE OF SALES UNDER 500 ACRES AND FOR SALES OVER 500 ACRES FOR THE NON-LRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN FERGUS COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL „ . 36 AVERAGE PRICE PER ACRE PAID BY GRADE FOR FARM LAND BOUGHT WITH AND WITHOUT BUILDINGS FOR THE NONIRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CTASSIFICATION IN FERGUS COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . . 38 SCHEDULE OF. 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARIVl LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. . . . . . . . . . 39 TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . 42 ill LIST' OF TABLES (continued) Number XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII Paqe COMPARISON OF AVERAGE PRICES PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE OF SALES UNDER 500 ACRES WITH SALES OVER 500 ACRES .FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFI­ CATION IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEifEL.......... .............................. , 42 AVERAGE PRICE PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE FOR FARM LAND WITH AND WITHOUT BUILDINGS FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE L E V E L .............. 43 TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE1FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION f o r T e t o n c o u n t y a d j u s t e d t o a 1959 v a l u e l e v e l . . . 46 TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR DANIELS COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . .46 SUMMARY OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION . BY GRADE FOR CHOUTEAU, DANIELS, FERGUS, JUDITH BASIN, AND TETON COUNTIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 SUMMARY OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU, DANIELS, FERGUS, JUDITH' BASIN AND TElbN COUNTIES ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ . . . . 48 SCHEDULE OF HYPOTHETICAL SALE- PRICES ON THE NONIRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION AND THE RESULTING TAXABLE,VALUATION ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE • LE^fEL e o o e e e e e e o A e o e e o y e e ' e e o - e o 49 iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express sincere appreciation and thanks for the aid and encouragement extended by all those contacted throughout the course of post-graduate work. Special thanks are due Dr. Layton S. Thompson for his guidance, assistance and encouragement. Professor’s H. C. Holje and, M. C. Taylor, the other members of the thesis committee, also deserve recognition and thanks for their suggestions and assistance in developing this thesis. Special thanks are also due to Dorothy Windecker for typing the thesis Any errors or omissions in this study are the responsibility of the author. v ASSTfiACT This study is primarily concerned with the derivation of a basic schedule of non-irrigated farm land values by grade that will reflect the relative tax paying ability of the grades. A secondary purpose of this study is to develop the methodology for using sale prices of farm land in deriving the basic schedule of farm land values. Examples of the inequalities that exist in tax levies, assessments, and classification in Montana are pointed out as evidence for the need of an adequate system for grading and valuing land according to its relative tax paying ability. The Land Reclassification Law passed by the 1957 Montana State Legislature is outlined along with a brief discussion of the duties and responsibilities of the county commissioners, county assessors, and the State Board of Equalization. Questions and assumptions concerning problems in the use of sale prices for valuing farm land, such as the overall level of prices being paid for land, the number of years and which years to use in the sample, and scarcity of bona fide sales, are discussed. The statistical analysis indicates that variables other than produc­ tivity are influencing sale prices of farm land. Variables listed as probably influencing the sale prices of farm land are size of tracts Sold, acreage allotments, distance from markets, hobby farmers, buying of land for tax offset purposes, distance of acquired land from the farmstead, speculation in the land market, sentimental values, recreation and Scenery, and community attitudes. It is also possible that errors have been made in grading the land, both within counties and between counties. The real estate market is notorious for its disorganized nature. The lack of homogeneous characteristics of farms and farm land and the meager knowledge of market opportunities on the part of many buyers and sellers contribute to a wide variation in sales prices. This variation may be exaggerated in periods of somewhat feverish land market activity SUCh1 as has existed in recent years. It is possible that sales data used from a different period of time might show a closer association between produc­ tivity ratings and sales prices than the poor statistical relations obtained in this study. In spite of the variations of sale price around the averages, the average sale prices found may give some useful value comparisons between classes and grades of land. Another suggestion made in this report is that the landlord share method be Used to arrive at a basic schedule of values as a check against the schedule obtained by Use of sales prices. vi CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The Problem Situation The history of taxation indicates that one of the earliest methods used to raise revenue was a tax on the ownership of real estate and personal property. The basis for the property tax is the theory that the amount of a man’s property is a fair indication of his ability to contri­ bute to the operation of his government.— / Samuelson suggests that this theory does not hold true today because so much wealth and income is divorced from real estate.— / Whatever side of the argument one might take on the merits or demerits of the property tax, it is still the back­ bone of the revenue systems for local governments throughout the United States,-S/ The property tax is primarily levied on real estate but in some places personal property such as livestock, machinery9 furniture I and jewelry is also taxed.— / It is of interest that general property tax collections increased more than twelvefold in the United States between 1902 and 1952. A subdivision of property may be made to see what increases in taxation have taken place on farm land. In using the years 1909-13 = 100 as a base l/ Earl F. Grouse and Charles H. Everett, Rural Appraisals. Prentice- , Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1957, p, 325. 2/ Paul A. Samuelson, Economics. McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, New York, 1958, p. 134. 3/ American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organization, State and Local Taxes. December, 1958, p. 24. i/ Samuelson, op. cit.. p. 134. for property taxes paid in the United States, the index number for the average tax on farm land in 1945 was 178. The index value then started a ( : climb upward and reached a relative value of 422 in 1955. This is an increase of 137 per cent in tax per acre from 1945 to 1955.^ Because of the increase in property taxes on farm lands, and since a substantial portion of property in rural areas consists of farm land, efforts have been focused on more equitable and uniform methods of assessing farm lands. Studies show that inequalities in assessed valuations of farm lands are widespread. These inequalities arise from disparities in the valuation of one farmer’s property as compared with the valuation of other farmers’ property.^ too close to the average. Murray states that assessments concentrate ' The excellent farms are underassessed while the poor farms are overassessed. assessment. This is contrary to the purpose of The assessment process is supposed to provide for taxation in proportion to value.5/ This also means that owners of high value farms benefit at the expense of the low value farms because the low value farm has to bear part- of the tax burden that should be paid by the better farms. This is unfair to those that own low value farms because they generally have a lesser ability to pay.^ Jl/ Raleigh Barlowe, Land Resource Economics. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1958, pp. 552-553. 2/ Joseph Ackerman, "Need For a Uniform Tax Valuation System," Proceedings — Land Valuation Conference. Fort Collins, Colorado, June 17-19, 1952, p.7. 3/ William G. Murray.-Farm Appraisal. Iowa State College Press, Ames, Iowa, 1950, p. 216. 4/ Ackerman, op. cit.. pp. 7-8. - 3Presently, the 1919 classified property tax law serves as a basis for tax assessments on land in Montana. The," land classification process under this law was hurried and the counties could not get adequate information to indicate proper use and economic value of the various lands. Until the Land Reclassification Act of 1957 went into effect, there had been few changes made in classification of the land since the original plats were completed.l/ The use of the 1919 Classified Property Tax Law proved to be inequitable because land which was of similar productivity was not placed in the same class. Land which was classed as good farm land in one area was classed as grazing land in another area. Also some classes of land were not changed when the major use of the land had been changed. These differences in classification made it impossible to assess land in a manner which reflects its relative tax paying a b i l i t y . A n example of inequitable land classification and tax assessment frequently cited comes from Fergus County. Land that had a uniform slope of about one degree was classified as "engine piowland." Due to this classification such land received a relatively high valuation for tax purposes.' Some of this land wasn't used for farming purposes but as long as it was classed \J H. H. Lord, S. W. Voelker, and L. F. Gieseker, Standards and Procedure for Classification and Valuation of Land For Assessment Purposes. Montana State College -Experiment Station Bulletin No. 404, Bozeman, Montana, June, 1942, p. 3. 2/ Harold G. Halcrow and H. R. Stucky, Procedure for Land Reclassification In Montana. Montana State College Experiment Station Bulletin No. 459, February, 1949, p. 3. 4 as "engine plowland” it was taxed as farm land even though it was used for grazing Further need for uniformity in classification, appraisal and assessment of farm land is cited by John C. Bower, Extension-Economist, in a mimeographed report. One example cited is of similar fields of land being assessed at different rates. "One field was assessed at $2.00 per acre and another similar field in the same farm was assessed at $15.00 per acre. This means that pne field was assessed at Tjjs- times 'as much as the adjoining field."■» ■ Bower lists another example of the lack .fof. uniformity in assessment concerning a field of sod land which was assessed as- ‘tillable:at $4 .0 0 , per acre and a nearby field being used to grow wheat was assessed at ■$2.00 per a c r e . T h e report further cites a study conducted by the State Board of Equalization to indicate the differences in the level of assessments between counties. This 1955 study indicated that sane counties were assessing as low as 20 per cent of full and true value while some counties were assessing at 54 per cent. counties was about 30 per cent. The average of all The above figures suggest that farmers in some counties may be contributing two and one-half times as much to the cost of state services as farmers in other counties.^ I/ Ibid. 2/ John Cv Bower, The History. Need For, and Present Land Reclassification Law. Mimeographed Report,' Montana State College Experiment Station, Bozeman, Montana,- February, 1959, p. I. 3/. Ibid. 4/ Tbid., p. 2. - 5 In 1937 R. R. Renne and 0. H. Brovmlee made a study of the relation­ ships between assessed values and productive values of farm and grazing lands.. Renne and Brownlee used a selected area covering 1,210,000 acres in parts of six Montana counties. They showed that the tax burden was not spread according to the earning' capacity of the land. They also showed that first and second grade farm lands were underassessed while all other grades of farm, land were relatively overassessed. The inequality in the assessments on the different grades and classes of land helped to explain the high rate of tax delinquency that was prevalent at that time/ Property taxes have been increasing nationwide. exception to this trend. Montana is not an Property tax levies in Montana, excluding levies for cities and towns, have increased from 78.73 mills in 1950 to 93.51 mills in 1958. This is an 18.77 per cent increase in the mill levy over a nine year period. See Table I. During this same period of time the taxable valuation bn Irrigated lands, no.n-irrigated lands, and grazing lands also increased by 9 per cent. In 1958,63.11 per cent of the tax dollar came from property taxes and 41.83 per cent of the property taxes came from real estate and improvements. Property taxes on farm real estate and improvements comprise 17.48 per cent of the tax on real estate and improvements. l/ Because of the large amount of tax revenue R. R. Renne and 0. H. Brownlee, Uncollected Property Taxes in Montana, Montana State College Experiment Station Bulletin No. 382, Bozeman, Montana, August, 1940, p. 30. - 6 derived from property, it is essential that this tax base be equitable.l/ The State Board of Equalization has recognized that due to the tremendous increase in state and local levies along with the high proportion of taxes derived from land and improvements, it is very important that this portion of the property tax base carry its fair share by proper enumeration, and equalization between individuals and counties 5 A step in the direction of property tax equalization was made when the 1955 Montana State Legislature passed a.Land Reclassification Law, providing for the classification of lands, and the appraisal of city and town lots and rural and urban improvements for assessment and taxation purposes.' This law was later declared unconstitutional on technical grounds but was passed again in the 1957 Legislative session with minor revisions. The duties of the county commissioners, county assessors, and the State Board of Equalization in carrying out the reclassification program are outlined in the law. Provisions are made in the law for classifying lands according to their use and the establishment of grades within each use class according to soil and productive capacity.— ^ The five classifications of land as approved by the State Board of Equalization are tillable irrigated land, non-irrigated farm land, grazing land, wild hay land and non-irrigated continuously cropped farm l a n d . i t is the intent of this law that classification and appraisal of lands, city and j_____ _____ I_____ ____ . ________________________ • ________________ 1 •. j / . Montana State Board of. Equalization, Eighteenth Biennial Report. ' Helena, Montana, 1958, pp. 14-16. 2/ Ibid., p. 3. 3/ See Appendix A. 4/ Montana State Board of Equalization, Procedure and Instructions for Land Reclassification. Helena, Montana. 1957. .0:. 5. - 7 town lots and rural and city improvements will be completed not later than March 9, 1962. TABLE I. TAXABLE VALUATIONS AND AVERAGE MILL LEVIES ON MONTANA FARM LANDS. 1950 -1958 .* Year 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 * Source; • Taxable Valuation on Farm Lands Average Mill Levy on Farm Lands a/ $79,826,104 80,308,401 80,459,053 81,037,442 81,908,109 83,226,153 84,511,775 86,555,365 78.73 80.33 78.90 77.70 81.51 84.91 87.59 89.96 93.51 8 7 ,714,973 Montana State Board of Equalization, Eighteenth Biennial Report. Helena, Montana, 1958. Special district and miscellaneous levies and total taxes levied for all purposes except cities and towns. Objectives The first objective is to determine the relative values between the grades of land within the non-irrigated farm land- classification from which an attempt will be made to provide a basic schedule of values on which a uniform and equitable method of tax assessment for the state of Montana may be based. The second objective is to develop and describe the methodology used in finding the basic schedule of values. l/ See Appendix A. - 8 Hypothesis A basic schedule of land values for tax assessment purposes, based on productivity and reflecting the relative tax paying ability,, may be assigned to the grades of land within the non-irrigated farm land classi­ fication through the collection, inspection, and analysis of land sales prices as derived from sales of land in the market.' Procedure The study area was set up to include all counties in Montana from which we could obtain sales data on non-irrigated farm land. Since the hypothesis requires that the sale of land be tied to a specific grade of land we were limited in processing some sales data because the counties were not finished with the reclassification program. The largest number ■of non-irrigated farm sales included in this study come from Chouteau, Judith Basin, and Fergus counties. Also there are included in the analysis a scattering of sales from Daniels County and Teton County. The sales information was obtained from three sources. A large number of sales were obtained from lending agencies, some sales were sent in by county assessors or other county personnel and a few sales were obtained from the warranty deed registration in the county offices. See Figure I for the number of sales used in this study by county. The sales were then checked by persons'- acquainted with the real \ estate transaction in the respective counties.so as to eliminate love and affection sales, and other transactions that were not thought to be bona fide market sales. /i MONTANA Teton Chouteau _ 165 Fergus |Judithi "IBasin I 63 Figure I. The Number of Sales Taken From the Counties Involved in This Study for Years 1950-1960. 10 Also the procedure used in tying each sale to its respective grade . within the classification is described in detail. The method of arriving at values for each classification is described and a statistical analysis will be made on the sales data. Problems raised in regard to the use of sales data, the method used, and the assumptions made are discussed. In the final section conclusions are drawn concerning the assignment of values to grades of land within a classification. CHAPTER II DISCUSSION OF LAND RECLASSIFICATION AND LAND VALUATION In order to have a sound basis for valuing land, the 1955 State Legislature voted that the lands of the state of Montana would be subjected to a land reclassification program based on productivity. The program was to be completed within five years after its inauguration. The 1955 Land Reclassification Law was declared unconstitutional but was passed with a few revisions in the 1957 session of the State Legislature.i/ Upon completion of the land reclassification program, values must be assigned to each grade of land within a classification so a uniform and equitable assessment for tax purposes may be based on the productive value of the land.5/ These relationships must be uniform within the counties as well as between the counties if the tax equalization program is to provide justice to taxpayers. The problem of land reclassification has faced Montana since the 1919 Classified Property Tax Law went into effect. It must be admitted that this law was a step in the right direction but the economic data, production histories, and other information were just not available to the extent that an adequate classification could be made. Many men have worked diligently in the area of land reclassification in Montana. Many of their names appear in footnotes in this paper as authors of publications on the subject. Each has contributed something J./ See Appendix A for a complete wording of the 1957 Land Reclassification Law. 2/ Value is taken here to mean a judgment which consists in attributing to goods a certain sum of money. - 12, but the man that is mentioned time and time again is B. F. Gieseker. Gieseker is listed by some as being responsible for relating productivity to soil type which is the basis for the 1957 land reclassification program.!/ Several counties have shown aggressiveness in the. development of the land reclassification program. Teton County is generally credited as being the birthplace in the late 1920"s and early 1930*s of classifying according to productivity.!/ Phillips and Pondera counties were not far behind in classifying land on a productivity basis.!/ Procedures and Responsibilities Involved After the inauguration of the land reclassification program in 1957 the State Board of Equalization published a booklet entitled Procedure .and Instructions for Land Reclassifications. In this booklet they stated that s "Classification means placing lands of similar use and productivity in the same .class and grade. Lands of similar use and productivity have similar ability to pay taxes. . Once lands' of similar use and productivity are put in the same grade,uniform valuations can be placed on all land in the grade. The assessed valuations can be adjusted between grades to reflect relative sales value and/or productivity value or combination of both. The process of valuation and assessment however, should be kept entirely separate from the process of classification, "d/ l/ Rita McDonald, Montana Land Classification Technique— Its Applications and Evolution. Term Paper, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Montana State College, Bozeman, Montana, 1959, p. I, 2/ Bower, op. cit.. p. I. 3/ McDonald, op. cit.. p. 49. 4/ State Board of Equalization, Procedure and Instructions for Land Reclassification, op. cit. I 13 In order that the classification program may be carried out, responsibilities of the county commissioner, county assessor, and the State Board of Equalization has been outlined in Chapter 198 Session Law of 1955 amended as, of 1957.-1/ The county commissioners were given the responsibility of providing for the classification of all taxable lands within their respective counties in a manner directed by the State Board of Equalization. It is then the duty of the county assessor to assess all lands for taxation purposes in conformance with the classification made by the county commissioners. The State Board of Equalization is to provide for a general and uniform method of classifying lands in order that an equitable and uniform assessment of land for tax purposes may be secured on a state-wide basis. Land Reclassification Process The land reclassification process involves two steps. First, the classification of land according to use and second the grading of land within each use class according to productivity. There are five classes of land set up under the law but the non-irrigated farm land is the only class involved in this study. This classification includes non- irrigated land which is now under cultivation but excludes continuously cropped farm land. The schedule as presented in Table II expresses land grades in terms'of the long-time productivity of the land. l/ See Appendix A. The figure in the - 14 - TABLE II. Bushel of wheat per acre on summerfallow . Grade I I I I I 2 2 A 3 A 2 Al A B A B * NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE.* 30 and 28 26 24 22 20 18 - Sources over 29 27 25 23 21 19 Grade . 2 3 3 4 4 5 Bushel of wheat per acre on summerfallow C A B A B 16 - 17 14-15 12 - 13 10 - .11 8 - 9 under 8 State Board of Equalizations Procedure and Instructions For Land Reclassification. Helena, Montana, 1957, p. 6. right hand column represents the standard crop grown dm the class of land. In the case of non-irrigated farm land the standard crop is wheat. The figures in Table IT are listed in two bushel increments indicating the standard of productivity associated with each grade. Methods and Problems of Valuing Non-irrigated Farm Lands Four, ways of arriving at a basic schedule of values for taxation purposes were discussed at the Land Classification and Assessment Conference held at Montana State College in December of 1,959. .The methods discussed were the cash-rent approach, landlord .share approach, the budgeting process, and the sale price approach. It was decided that the cash-rental approach might be good to use in the case of valuing grazing lands but not in the case of setting values on farm land because there would be few cash rentals in the tillable farm land classification. This would make it difficult to find a cash-rental lease rate that could be used for the s t a t e . I t was brought out at the conference that the «l/ Cash-rent refers to the payment of a fixed sum of money usually on an annual basis. - 15 I landlord.share method can be used in the non-irrigated tillable class, in the irrigated tillable class, and on the wild hay classification because the typical arrangement is to give the landlord a certain share of the product.!/ A net income is figured for the owner and is capitalized in order to find the value of the property. The budgeting process as a method of valuation was -also discussed J=/ "it was decided that this was not a good approach because there are not adequate data available. This is substantiated by Bradford and Johnson when they state that "one ’joker* in the budgeting process in. the problem of getting appropriate prices and quantities to put into the budget forms or budget equations.”^ Error may also be made in the above three methods through the capitali­ zation process.^/ A change of one per cent in interest rate will make a large difference in value. For instance assume a net annual income of Jl/ The share rental approach would range typically from l/4 to l/3 of the crop going to the owner on the non-irrigated farm land classification. 2/ Budgeting is a technique used to state in advance the expenses and receipts from a farm enterprise. It is also used as a tool to study alternatives within the farm enterprise and gives some idea of the problems that may be encountered. 3/ Lawrence A. Bradford and Glenn L. Johnson, Farm Management Analysis. John Wiley arid Sons, Inc., New York, New York, 1953, p. 330. 4/ Capitalization refers to the use of the following equations Value = net annual income interest rate This formula is used when the income will continue to be received for an indefinitely long period into the future. The above formula is a ' reduction of the more complex formula y. — a • + a + a — (l+r) (l+r)2 (l+r)3 a . (a = annual income and r = interest rate.) The latter formula (l+r)n shows algebraically the value of each expected annual increment discounted to present value. - 16 $1.00 and an interest rate of 4 per cent. Solving the capitalization formula (V - ) gives a value of $25.00. If this interest rate is .04 changed to 5 per cent and still using the same net annual income figure of $1,00 the value now is $20.00 (V °-S~- = $20.00) the capitalization .05 process tells us how much can be paid for the land and still earn an interest rate of 4 per cent in the first case and 5 per cent- in the second case. In other words, if you are-satisfied with earning 4 per cent interest, $25.00 per acre can be paid for the land. If 5 per cent interest is the desired rate of return only $20.00 may be paid for the acre of land. Errors may also be made.in arriving at a net annual income figure. For instance, if the above $1.00 net annual income was increased to $2.00 through differences in cost or return estimates, and if the interest rate remains at 5 per cent, this would mean an error of $20.00 per acre in value (V = AvQQ = $20.00) (.QvQQ = $40.00). .05 .05 It is not meant through this discussion that the above methods are wholly inadequate but they do have their limitations, and for this reason some combination of methods should probably be used in arriving at a basic schedule of land values. The sales method of valuing lands was also discussed at the meeting, and is to be explored in this paper as a method of finding a basic schedule .of land values. Indirectly, sales prices reflect the use of the capitali­ zation method because the sales price is essentially a measurement of what people (buyers and sellers) think land is w o r t h H o w e v e r , many questions l/ Notes taken at Land Classification and Assessment Conference held at Montana State College in December of 1959, 17 have been asked which must be answered before the derivation of a basic schedule of values may be obtained from the use of land sales. The first question, which is important in figuring a taxable value but is not necessarily important in finding relative values of the grades', is in regard to the high prices being paid for land today and the effect this will have on the schedule of values. In answer to this question it must be emphasized that the immediate objective is to find the proper relationship of values for the grades within the classification. After the proper relationships have been found, the basic schedule of values may be set at whatever level is appropriate. One restriction is that the resulting taxable valuation must bear an equitable relationship to other kinds of property. The question of how many years of sales data to use in the sample is another problem that must.be worked out. Bonright states that the advantage in using recent transactions on sales is that it secures the most up-to-date market prices; thus, they more nearly reflect conditions as they exist- at the time of valuation.— / However, if it is decided that the long-run average is necessary in order to derive a basic schedule of values, sales data should be collected for the necessary number of years to arrive at this value. Sale prices of land for an 11-year period were collected in this study which should be adequate to reflect current conditions and still incorporate enough years in the sample to give a good average of land values. JL/ James C. Bonright. Valuation of Property. McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York, New York, 1937, p. 137. 18 Acreage allotments on wheat are another consideration of the sale price of land that must be explained. In the Journal of Land and Public Utility Economics. Mason states: "There can be no question that acreage allotments and associated marketing quotas, appertaining to particular farms do now constitute, a major factor in the value and market price of such farms."2/ However, Mason states further that it is almost impossible to obtain market data that is an accurate measurement of the values of allotments and marketing quotas. "No two farms are exactly alike; and the wide" differences between farms actually sold, even in .a given area over a relatively short rent period, would require rather arbitrary adjustments of actual price to achieve comparability. This is ' the reason why no attempt is made to employ mass statistical methods to isolate the effect of acreage allotments on land prices."2/ Also, in the collection of sales prices it is hard to determine what the acreage allotment was on a piece of land in 1950 when we are collecting this sale in 1960. Due to a limitation of time and money, no effort has been made to check allotments on these sales. In essence, then, it will be assumed that the allotment affects the sale price equally in all cases. In one" instance, the allotment base might be high but low in another sale. If enough sales are used in the analysis an average figure should be arrived at which will take account of the variations in sale price due to the allotment base. l/ John E. Mason, "Acreage Allotments and Land Prices,” The Journal of Land and Public Utility Economics. Volume XXII, Number 2, May, 1946, p. 177. 2/ Ibid. - 19 One definite obstacle in the us,e of sale prices for setting a basic schedule- of values is the scarcity of bona fide sales.— / Even'where numerous sales prices are available, further investigations will have to be made because of various intangible considerations that may have caused the property to be sold at more or less than its productive value.— / Intangibles that may-influence sale prices include such- items as ‘ sentimental attachments, geographic location of farmstead in regard to scenery, markets and recreation, and attitudes that prevail within the community. Two other problems are in evidence in the collection of land sale prices. Are the sales bona fide and has any time elapsed betwe’ en the sale date and the • recording date■of a contract for deed?— / The above obstacles were overcome as nearly as possible by asking •-several people who were acquainted with real estate operations in the area if the- sales were bona fide and if the data collected on the sale were correct. ’ If the validity of a sale was questioned by these people it was not used in this study. It was found by Dr. Layton Thompson in an earlier study on farm real estate that 85 per cent of the tracts which changed ownership were _l/ A bona fide sale refers to the exchange of land between willing informed buyers and sellers that excludes love and affection sales or emergency sales, and other transactions that were not thought to be actual market sales as determined by informed people in the respective counties. 2/ Ackerman, op. cit., p. 10. 3/ A contract for deed is an agreement between a buyer and seller of real estate stipulating the installments to be paid over a definrhe .period 6f years. The deed goes to the buyer when some agreed percentage of the purchase price is paid. This often times results in a number of ' years difference between the date of sale and the recording of the deed. 20 purchased by farmers who intended to use the land. Eighty-one per cent of the land was purchased by farmers who were owner-operators previously.l/ John Lawrence, in a study on the effect of increasing farm size on land values, states that 32 per cent of land transfers nationwide in 1954 were for, farm enlargement. This still suggests that a significant number of land transfers are for the purpose of farm enlargement.S/ Lawrence points out in his thesis that "land values increase as additional units of land are added to an existing farm unit.” Economies of scale was named as one of the reasons for the increase in land value." Lawrence found in his study that as more land is added to the existing unit, average production costs per acre decline. The net income per acre is then increased and when this new net income figure is capitalized, a higher value per acre is realized on the land .-2/ Although current appraisal methods do not take into account the increased value of land when it is added to an existing unit, the land buyers are faced with this factor Here again, the time element and expense involved do not allow an actual appraisal of each added tract. It is hoped that with the collection of enough sales that an average figure will be obtained that will reflecta balance between higher and lower prices paid for different tracts of land under this marginal demand theory. l/ Layton Thompson, Changing Aspects of the Farm Real Estate Situation in Montana, 1940 to 1946. Montana State College Agricultural Experi­ ment Station Bulletin No. 440, January, 1947, p. 19. 2;/ John D. Lawrence, The .Effect, of Increasing Farm Size on Land Values. Master's Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Montana State College, Bozeman, Montana, May, 1958, p. 2. 3/ Ibid., p. 63. 4/ Ibid., p. 64. CHAPTER III METHODS USED IN TYING LAND SALES PRICES TO A SPECIFIC GRADE One important aspect of the land reclassification program is the setting of values on the grades of land within the different use classifi­ cations. This will be done five years after the inauguration of the reclassification law. . The point has now been reached where the methodo­ logy in tying land values to a particular grade of land should be explained. As previously mentioned, sales of non-irrigated farm land were acquired from three sources. The first source was from lending ,agencies. In order that the process may be followed closely an actual sale using this source o.f information will be used as an example. from Fergus County. This sale is Also make note that all sale's from this source were processed in the same manner. The information used included a complete description of the land, total acres involved in the sale, cultivated acres, value of the sod, value of buildings at the time of sale, the total purchase price, and the year of sale. The sale to be used here is a 320 acre tract with 269 cultivated acres. A total price of $20,000 was paid for this land in 1954. were no buildings inlcuded with this sale. There In checking the legal descrip­ tion with the land classification office it was found that the sale acreage contained 208 acres of grade 2 C, 61 acres of grade 3 A, and 51 acres of gracing,land, for a total of 320 acres. It is necessary then to deduct the value of the grazing land from the purchase price. The grazing land in' this instance was appraised at $20.00 per acre which means that $1,020 must be deducted from the total purchase price leaving a 22 balance of $18,980 as the amount paid for the farm land. The value given to the grazing land was set by a lending agency appraiser who was familiar with the sale. The grade of farm land must now be weighted in order to find an average grade for the tract sold. In using the mid-point of- bushels per acre listed in Table II as the production for that grade, the land is assigned to its proper weighted average. the 2 C grade is 16.5 bushels per acre. The mid-point for This figure is multiplied by the number of acres in this grade which comes to 3,'432 = (16.5 x 208). The process is repeated for the 3 A grade taking 61 acres times the grade mid-point which is 14.5. x 61). The figure derived here is 884.5 = (14.5 The sum of these two products divided by the number of acres involved gives a weighted average, which will fit into the schedule in Table II. The sum of 3,432 + 885.5 divided by 269 = 16:05 = (4.,317.5)> 269 This estimate then falls into the 2 C grade of l a n d T h e price paid for the farm land ($18,980) divided by the number of acres of farm land (269) will give a per acre price paid for the land of $70.56. In order to get an adequate sample of sale prices on farm land it was necessary to use sales from more than one year. Since the overall land values and the price level change from year to. year it was also necessary to convert the sale prices of farm land to a base year. The sale prices were converted to the year 1959 through the use of an index of farm land values for Montana published by the United States Bepartment l/ See Appendix B Table I for the production limits used in assigning farm land to a specific grade. - of Agriculture j J 23 - The -method of converting prices paid for farm land to a 1959 base is explained in the following example. The net price paid ($18,980) for the land taken times the conversion factor for land in 1954 which is 1.3 gives a 1959 value of $24,557 for the land.2/ A price per acre in 1959 dollar's may be obtained by dividing $24,557 by 269. price paid per acre in 1959 dollars is $91.28. The If buildings had been included in this sale, their value"would have been subtracted from the sale price which would have reduced the net price paid for the farm land. All other sales acquired from lending agencies' were processed In this manner. In a cooperative effort to find a basic schedule of values for farm land, sales data on farm land were sent in by county assessors and other interested people. The information included (of use in this study) was the total number of acres involved in the sale, the appraised value of buildings, the year of sale, the number of acres in each class and grade ' and the sale price or the amount of revenue stamps involved in the purchase. The valuation that should be put on the buildings posed a problem. In approximately 95 per cent of the sales the building value had been set by a lending agency appraiser. price paid for the farm. This value was then subtracted from the In approximately 5 per cent of the sales the buildings included in the transaction did not have an appraised value at the time of sale. Another method had to be developed in order to put a l/ See Appendix C Table I. 2/ See Appendix C. Table I for index and conversion factors used in assigning 1959 values to prices paid for farm land. - .24 value on these buildings. It was felt that the full value of the house should not be subtracted from the price paid for the farm land because only a portion of the house value contributes to farm earnings and there are less potential buyers for a farm house than for a house in town. This should make the value of a farm house less than the value of a comparable house in town. Chouteau County reclassifiers valued farm houses at 65 per cent of the value of a house in Fort Benton. In this study, the 65 per cent value of farm houses compared to Fort Benton values was used. Added to the value of the house was the appraised value of other farm, buildings. This is the figure that was subtracted from the total sale price in this study. Since the buildings were all appraised by county classifiers at.the 1959 value level, the buildings included with a transaction in .years other than 1959 had to have the appraised values converted back to the year of sale. This was done because of the changes in the. level of building material costs and the changes in the price level that take place over a period of years. A cost of building materials and fencing index was used to revalue these b u i l d i n g s . A conversion factor was applied to the appraised value of the buildings in order to convert the 1959 appraised value back to the year of sale. The adjusted value of the buildings was then subtracted from the total price paid for the tract, value level. the net price paid for farm land was then converted to a 1959 The process of finding a specific sale price for a specific grade of farm land was then completed in the same manner described for the sales data obtained from lending agencies. 'l/ See Appendix C 5 Table II for index of building materials used in assigning values for buildings to the year of sale. - 25 - . County records of deed registrations were used as- a third source of sale information. two methods. Again, the same information was required as in the other Most sales taken from deed recordings had to have a purchase price applied through interpretation of the revenue stamps bought when' the deed was recorded. Fifty-five cents of revenue stamps signifies up to $500.00 as the price paid on the deed. One dollar and ten cents means that between $500.00 and $1,000.00 was the price paid for the land. In order that the sale price would not be missed by a full $500.00, the mid-point between the extremes was used so that the assigned sale price at the most would only deviate from the actual price by $250.00. the sale price of a tract was $999.00. The buyer would, have to buy.$1.10 worth of revenue stamps when the deed was recorded. to this tract would then be $750.00. For instance, assume The price assigned The actual price paid was missed by $249.00 but someone else might pay only $501.00 for the next tract of land? then the average price paid for both tracts would be $750.00. If sales of land had more than 10 per cent grazing land and did not have a value put on it by an appraiser it was not used in this study. The assumption here is if land bought does not include more than 10 per cent grazing land the price paid for the land is not influenced greatly by the small amount of grazing land. land. In other words, the tract is bought as farm Also, the sales were checked with people acquainted in the respective counties in.order to eliminate sales that were not bona fide. Upon the assignment of a grade of land, to a specific price, the data were then included with the sales information from the other two sources. CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS OF USING MARKET PRICES BASED ON PRODUCTIVITY AS THE CRITERIA OF ARRIVING AT A BASIC SCHEDULE OF LAND VALUES BY GRADE FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION Up to this point the concern has been mainly the presentation of the inequality that exists in the levying of property■taxes, the methodology used in processing the data, discussions of problems, and the assumptions made in carrying out this study. The next step in the process of analyzing the data is to separate the sales of farm land by grades and counties. This process allows an analysis to be made of the values obtained for each grade. Two averages will be obtained by grade for Chouteau, Sergus, and S Teton counties. The same will be done on a" summary analysis of all counties involved which include a scattering of sales from Daniels and Teton counties. The first average found is weighted by acreage and is calculated by dividing the.amount of money involved by the number of acres. The use of an average weighted by acres means that sale prices of large acreages have a greater influence in affecting the average sale price than the sale-prices of small acreages. The other average is found on a per sale basis. This allows the sale of small acreages to have as much weight as the sale of large acreages. The average price paid for farm land on a per sale basis is calculated in the following manner. First, an average price per acre must be calculated for all transactions. The average figures obtained are then added together. The resulting sum is then divided by the number of sales, thus putting the quotient on a per sale basis. 27 In the statistical analysis the average per sale figure was used to fit a straight line to a group of data by a linear regression equation.l/ An analysis of the sales data by county is presented here with a summary analysis involving sales from five counties. Chouteau County If the average prices paid for farm land by grade on a per sale basis were the only factor considered in this analysis it would indicate that on the average, people are paying more for the higher grades of farm land than the lower grades. The average price paid per sale using 1959 as the base year, ranges from $69.14 in grade 3 A to $117.17 in grade I A. price per sale for all sales is $86.61. See Table III. The average The fitting of a straight line to this data is demonstrated in Figure 2. The arithmetic mean, weighted by acres found for each grade, also seems to indicate that people are paying more for the higher grades of farm land. The average price paid per acre ranges from $72.75 in grade 3 A to $122.18 in grade I A. for the county is $94.73. taken just as averages. The average weighted on a per acre basis See Table IV. However, the averages must be They do not show the .extreme piice variations paid for farm land within each grade. The discrepancy observed in figuring the average per sale and the average per acre seems to indicate that higher prices are paid for large acreages than small acreages. This will be explained further in the analysis for Fergus and Judith'Basin counties. l/ Statistical formulas used in this analysis may be found in Appendix D , Table I. 28 Price Per Acre Adjusted to 1959 Value Level 25 3 Bushels of Wheat Per Acre Figure 2. a/ Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices from Chouteau County on a Productivity Basis by the Equation Y = -24 + 5.7817X. _a/ The dotted lines show the extreme ranges for finding the true slope of the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level. - 29 It is not feasible to accept an average figure unless further stati­ stical analysis is made in order to determine the reliability of this average. One such test of reliability is the standard error of estimate which is $34^82 for Chouteau County.-/ are subject to sampling error. These are sample figures and they If it is assumed the sample is randomly drawn and the sampling errors are normally distributed the probable error around the line of regression can be estimated. The line of regression is a single straight line that best describes the average relationship between sale price and productivity. In other words, it defines the ten­ dency for sale prices and productivity to vary together.-^=/ In order to derive a 95 per cent confidence limit for estimating the average relationship about the regression line, 1.96 is multiplied times $34.82. resulting product is $68.25. 3/ The This means that with 95 per cent confidence the sale prices of farm land, based on productivity, can be found within a range of plus or minus $68.25 from the regression line. The above figures seem to indicate that factors other than productivity have influenced the purchase price of farm land in Chouteau County, A hypothesis in explanation of the poor results obtained in the above l/ Formula for figuring the standard error of estimate is; Sy • X " byxy N - -2 2/ Fredrich C. Mills, Statistical Methods. Henry Holt and Company, New York, New York, 1955, p. 259. 3/ The figure 1.96 is a constant value used in finding the 95 per cent level of confidence. — 30 — statistical test would be that variables such as acreage allotments, distance to town, distances of the acquired land from the farmstead, hobby farmers, buying of land for tax purposes and speculation in the land market are playing a part in the price paid for farm land. Another factor that might influence the statistical results obtained here is the classification process itself. Because this amounts to a "mass appraisal?' program, it seems likely that there will be errors in grading individual tracts. ■The wide variations in the sale prices paid for farm, land may be -further explained by the following quote from Barlowe on the nature of the real estate market. "In their use of the market-comparison approach, appraisers ordinarily encounter wide variations^in market prices. They find that most buyers and sellers operate with incomplete knowledge • of their market opportunities, that their properties have a wide variety of characteristics, and that pome properties sell. , for more than they probably should while others sell for.less."-/ In order to establish a 95 per cent confidence band for the true line, 1.96 is multiplied by the estimate of the standard error of the coefficient of regression for the line plus or minus the b value (1.96 x .9182 = 1.7997).^ / A confidence band for Chouteau County may be found within.the limits of 5.781 plus or minus 1.7997. This is demonstrated l/ Barlowe, op. cit.« p. 195. 2/ yFormula for finding the standard error of the coefficient of regression ■is: “ 31 — TABLE III. SCHEDULE OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES. ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR CHOU­ TEAU COUNTY. > Grade of Farm Land (I) I A 3 I A 2 IAl I A I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B 5 TOTAL Bushels of Wheat Per Acre (.2) over 30 28 - 29 26 - 27 24 - 25 22 ' 23 20 - 21 18 - 19 16 - 17 14 - 15 12-13 10-11 8 - 9 under 8 Average Sale Hypothetical Prices by Grade a/ Sales Prices by Adjusted to a Grade Adjusted 1959 Value ' to a 1959 Level , b/ Value Level (3) (4) $ - Size of Sample (5) $159.92 140.36 — 117.17 ~~ 107.72 80.53 64.27 69.14 - — —— 128.80 117.23 • 105.67 94.11 82.54 70.98 59.42 47.85 32 12 ' 86 20 15 36.29 24.72 — —— 13.16' $86.61 $86.61 .165 s/ This is the average price paid per sale. b/ Hypothetical sale prices are calculated from the linear-regression equations Y = -24.42 + 5.7817 X. in Figure 2„ It can be stated 95 per cent of the time that the slope of •' ■ the line will fall within this interval.-/ The use i of a coefficient of determination is another method used to find the relationship between v a r i a b l e s / l/ This measurement assumes that Formula for finding the slope of the line is: b = Zx2 2/ Formula used in finding the coefficient of determination, is: d = JL^Y. SY 2 32 - TABLE IV. TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID, AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Total Amount of Money Average Sale Under Consideration Prices by Grade Grade of Adjusted to a 1959 Total Acres Under Adjusted to a Size of Farm Land Value Level Consideration 1959 Value Level Sample (I)____________ (2)____________________ (3)____________ (4) a/ (5) I A '2 A 2 B '2 C 3 A TOTAL a/ $1,313,304.01 10,749 5,050 33,873 557,465.45 3,078,082.78 559,741.62 317,565.00 $5,826,158.86 4,365 110.39 90.87 75.00 72.75 61,500 $94.73 7,463 32 12 $122.18 This is the average sale price weighted by acres. dividing column (2) by column (3). 86 ■ 20 15 165 It is obtained by causality flows from the productivity of farm land to the sale prices for each grade. .195654. The coefficient of determination for Chouteau County is This seems to indicate that only 19.5654 per cent of the variability of sale prices on farm land is associated with the producti­ vity ratings of the farm land.—/ , Fergus Codnty The average price paid per sale ranges from $41.37 in the 4 B grade to $170.71 in the I A grade of farm land. See Table V. With the exceptions of grades 4 B and 2 C, the trend, inferred from the averages, ■ indicates that higher prices ,are paid for the higher,producing grades of Jl/ Statistical formulas and the values obtained may be seen in Appendix D, Tables I and II. 33 farm land. However, it must be remembered that the average tells nothing about the variability in the sale prices of farm land. After the linear regression equation was applied to the data the average price paid on a per sale basis was smoothed to fit a line ranging from $2.86 in grade 5 to $227.15 in grade I A 3. Grade numbers 5, I A I, I A 2, and I A 3 were not represented by sales but the use of the linear regression equation permits a projection of the possible sale prices for these grades. The sale prices obtained by this process are essentially hypothetical for they assume the regression line continues as a linear line. The scatter diagram in Figure 3 indicates that the trend is definitely toward the payment of higher prices for the higher producing farm lands. It may be observed from the scatter of sale prices that much variation exists about the regression line. The average prices paid, on a per acre basis in Table VI range from $40.46 in grade 4 B to $170.71 in grade I A. This compared favorably with the average price per sale before the regression equation was used to smooth out the averages. However, a discrepancy in the mean value on a per sale basis and on a per acre basis is observed. In Chouteau County the difference was also observed but no explanation was offered. The $109.07 average per acre in Table VI is weighted by acreage thus allowing the sale prices of the larger tracts to have more weight in arriving at an average figure. per sale basis. The $102.81 average calculated in Table V is on a This method allows the sale price of a small tract to have as much weight as the sale price of large acreages. The differences 34 - Price Per Acre Adjusted to 1959 Value Level Bushels of Wheat Per Acre Figure 3. a/ Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Fergus County on a Productivity Basis by the Equation Y = -54.0695 + 9.2204X. a/ The dotted lines show the extreme ranges for finding the true slope of the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level. - .35 - TABLE V. Grade of Farm Land (I) I A 3' I A 2 I. A I I A I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B 5 TOTAL a/ SCHEDULE OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR FERGUS COUNTY. Bushels of Wheat Per Acre (2) over 30 28 - 29 26 - 27 24 - 25 22-23 20 - 21 18 - 19 16 - 17 14 - 15 12 - 13 10 - 11 8 - 9 under 8 Average Sale Prices Hypothetical Sale by Grade Prices by Grade •Adjusted to Adjusted to a 1959 Size of a 1959 Value Level a/ Value Level b/ Sample (3) (4) <4 $ $227.15 208.71 190.27 171.83 153.39 134.95 116.51 98.07 79.63 ■61.19 ■42.74 24.30 2.86 $102.81 — — —— 170.71 150.45 144.12 101.30 108.49 82.40 48.79 37.13 41.37 — $102.81 ^■ -iI 7 12 14 15 8 4 7 2 70 This is the average price paid per sale, b/ 1Hypothetical averages calculated from the linear- regression equation Y = - 54.0695 + 9.2204X. in these two average's indicates that the prices paid for large acreages is greater than the prices paid for small acreages. Some proof of- this is offered in Table VII. divided into two acreage groups. The sale of land was One group included all sales up to 500 acres and the other group included all sales over 500 acres. was obtained by grade on a per acre basis. An average The average price paid per acre for all grades in the over 500 acre group is $112.02 as compared with $105.09 per acre paid for tracts under 500 acres. 36 - TABLE VI. Grade of Farm.Land (l) IA I B 2 A ' 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B TOTAL a/ • Total Amount of Money Under- Consideration Total Acres Adjusted to a 1959 ■ ■ Under Value Level Consideration (2) (3) $101,575.00- 521,605.50 579,751.50 499,427.40 ■ 452,166.15 203,163.00 37,100.00 43,541.70 7,890.00 $2,446,220.25 Average Sale Prices By Grade Adjusted Size of to a 1959 Value Level a/ Sample (4)(5) 595 3,6,36 4,075 4,759 4,274 3,044 760 1,090 195 22,428 $170.71 143.46142.27 104.94 105.79 66.74 48.82 39.95 40.46 $109.07 I 7 12 14 15 8 4 7 2 70 This is> an average sale price weighted by ;acres. It is calculated by dividing values in column (2) by the values in column (3). TABLE VII. Grade of Farm Land (I) . I A . I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B TOTAL a/ TOTAL ItUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES BY GRADE.WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION' FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE'LEVEL. COMPARISON OF AVERAGE PRICES PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE OF SALES UNDER 500 ACRES- AND FOR SALES OVER 500 ACRES FOR THE NONIRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN. FERGUS i COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Average Prices Paid for Sales Under 500 Acres Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level• a/ (2) Average Prices Paid for Sales Over 500 Acres Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level '(3) a/ S 148.36 146.32 102.73 96.36 • 109.13 48.82 35.78 40.46 $105.09 Averages are calculated on a per acre basis. $170.71 141.55 138.14 107.08 112.27 55.46 M mm. ■ 51.44 ,*• •— $112.02 - 37 One hypothesis offered as to why the large acreages command higher prices is that the large acreages may include more buildings with the sale than the small tracts. This also was checked -by again dividing the sales of farm land into two groups, land bought with buildings and land bought ■ without buildings. See Table VIII. The average for both groups expresses little difference as to whether land has buildings included with the sale. Land without buildings commanded an average of $109.41 per acre while land with buildings brought an average price of $108.95 per acre. The significance of these two averages seems to indicate the building's value ■has little to do with the high prices paid for the large acreages. Another suggestion offered as to the difference in prices paid for large and small acreages is that the large acreages may command more bidders than the small acreages. The reasoning offered here is the small tracts' may only be bid on by a neighbor because of the distance factor while large tracts would eliminate much of .the consideration for distance. In other words., buyers of land might figure they can pay more for large tracts because it is cheaper to farm land in close proximity than land that is scattered in small tracts. Statistical tests made on the sales data for Fergus County indicates a closer relationship between sale prices and productivity than was in evidence in the other' counties. $31.43. The standard error of estimate (Sy .x) is When this is put on a 95 per cent confidence level it may be stated that'with 95 per cent confidence the sale prices of farm land, based on productivity, can be found within a range of plus' or minus $61.60 '38 - TABLE VIII. AVERAGE PRICE PER ACRE PAID BY GRADE FOR FARM LAND BOUGHT •WITH AND WITHOUT BUILDINGS'FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED'TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN FERGUS COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Grade of 1Farm Land (I) Average Sale Prices 'by Grade for Farm Land Bought With Buildings (1959 Value Levels) a/ (2) I A I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B ■ TOTAL a/ $170.71 142.27 141.88 100.33 90.38 58.66 57.39 33.59 Average Sale Prices by Grade for Farm Land Bought Without Buildings (1959 Value Levels) a/ (S) . _ _ ■ $152.09 144.72 113.04 133.70 117.18 31.84 42.59 ' 40.46 — -T ■$108.95 $109.41 Averages are calculated oh a per acre basis. from the regression line,— / regression (S^) is .9833. The standard error of the coefficient of When put on a 9E> per' cent confidence level it' may be stated that a band for the slope of the line may be found within the limits 9.2204 plus or minus 1.9273. for Fergus County is .56388. The coefficient of determination This indicates that 56.388 per cent of the variability in sale prices of land is associated with productivity.— / l/ A more detailed explanation of the inferences for the statistical values may be obtained from the section on Chouteau County. 2/ The statistical formulas' used and the values obtained may be seen in Appendix D 9 Tables I and II. - '39 TABLE IX. Grade of Farm Land (I) I A 3 I A 2 I A I I A I B 2 A .2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B 5 TOTAL SCHEDULE.OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND.CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. Bushels of Wheat Per Acre (2) over 30 28 - 29 26 - 27 24 - 25 22 - 23 20 - .21 18 - 19 16 - 17 14 - 15 12 - 13 10 - 11 8 - 9 under 8 Average Sale I Prices by Grade Adj ust.ed 'to a 1959 Value Level (3) Hypothetical Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level b/ ■ ... (4) $ — — 121.52 112.39 107.19 90.44 67.00 — — — — — — $105.63 $165.33 156.62 146.12 135.62 125.12 Size of Sample (5) — — — — — 6 11 33 12 I 114.63 ■ 104.13 93.63 83.13 72.64 62.14 51.64 41.63 $105.63 — ' — — — Ml — 63 a/ This is the average price paid per sale. b/ Hypothetical averages calculated From the linear regression equation Y = + 7.0304 +. 5.2486X. Judith Basin County The average price paid per sale in Judith Basin County indicates that higher prices are paid for the higher producing farm lands. The sale prices range from $67.00 in the 3 A grade to $121.52 in grade I B. Through "the use of a linear regression equation, a line was fitted to the scatter diagram in Figure 4. The range of prices after the line was fitted'is $41.63 in grade 5 to $165.33 in grade I A 3. The average pricq per sale of $105.63 in Table IX in comparison with;$106.30 average per 40 - Price Per Acre Adjusted to 1959 Value Level 5 Figure 4. a/ 10 15 20 25 30 Bushels of Wheat Per Acre Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Judith Basin County on a Productivity Basis by the Equation Y = +7.0304 +5.2486X. a/ The dotted lines show the extreme ranges for finding the true slope of the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level. 41 acre in Table X indicates that higher prices are being paid for the larger acreagesi Some proof of this is found in Table XI where sales of land were divided into two groups9 those under 500 acres and those over 500 acres. The $99.52 per acre average paid for farm land.under 500 acres compares with the $10^.11 average per acre paid for farm land when it was. included in a sale of more than 500 acres. The hypothesis advanced in the analysis of Fergus County that the higher prices paid for large acreages might be due to there being more buildings on the larger tracts of land might have some merit for Judith Basin County. In Table XII it ■ may be seen that $113.15 per acre was paid for farm land bought "with.buildings^While $84.47 was paid per acre for farm land without buildings. The standard error of estimate (Sy.x) for Judith Basin County is $34.23. At the 95 per cent level of confidence for the standard error of estimatei the sale price's of farm Iand5 based on productivity^ can be found within a range of plus or minus $67.09 (34.23 x 1.96) from the regression line. A confidence interval for the b value may be found with' 95 ,per cent confidence within the limits 5.2486 plus or minus 4.7459. The coefficient of determination.(d) indicates that 7.151 per cent of the variation in sale prices is associated with productivity.■-/ The above analysis seems to indicate very little relationship between productivity ratings and sale prices for Judith Basin County.^ l/ A more detailed description of the meanings of the statistical values may be seen in the section on Chouteau County. 2/ The statistical formulas used and the values obtained may be seen in Appendix D 9 Tables I and II. - 42 - TABLE X. .TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM-LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Total Amount of Money Total Acres Under Consideration Grade of Adjusted to a 1959. Under Farm Land Value Level Consideration (2) (3) Cl) I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A TOTAL a/ 221,001.00 603,9.86.90 1,436,751.98 419,992.45 8,712.00 $2,690,444.33 1,720 5,484 12,932 5,043 130 , 25 j309 $128.49 110.14 111.10 ■83.28 67.00 $106.30 ■ 6 11 33 12 I 63 This is an average sale price weighted by acresi It is calculated by dividing the values in column (2) by the values in column (3). TABLE XI. Grade (I) I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A TOTAL a/ $ Average Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted Size of to a 1959 Sample Value Level V f4). __(5,)_ . COMPARISON OF AVERAGE PRICES PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE OF SALES UNDER 500 ACRES'WITH SALES OVER 500 ACRES FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY ' ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Average Price Paid For Sales Under 500 Acres Adjusted' to a 1959 Value-Level a/ 12) ” Average Price Paid For Sales Over 500 Acres' Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level a/ (3) $112.21 121.18 $ 86.29 109.-79 67.00 ' $ 99.52 10.6,62 121.20 86.97 —$109.11 Averages are calculated on a per acre basis - 43 - TABLE XII. AVERAGE PRICE PAID PER ACRE BY GRADE FOR FARM LAND WITH AND WITHOUT BUILDINGS FOR THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Grade of Farm Land (I) Land Bought With Buildings (2) . I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A TOTALS a/ a/ $146.76 107.19 119.67 88.67 -$113.15 Land Bought Without Buildings (3) $107.48 124.00 66,35 76.13 67.00 $ 84.47 Averages are calculated on a per acre basis. Summary Analysis of Sale Prices Combining Sales From Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin, Daniels, and Teton .Counties Included in a summary analysis for all counties are four sales from Teton County as shown in Table XIII and ten sales from Daniels County shown in Table XIV. The summary average sales value for all counties included in this study by grade on a per sale basis range'from $41.37 in grade 4 B to $118.79 in grade I A. See Table XV. In two cases, the average sale price for a grade is higher than the average sale price- for the prec­ eding grade. This occurs In grades I B and 4 B. In the case of the average for the 4 B grade, little weight can be put on this average alone due to the smallness of the sample. The average sales value for the I B grade is high and this may be due to two factors. There were no sale values entered in the I B grade from Chouteau County and the other factor may be that the’ sample is relatively small for this grade. A comparison of the average 44 price paid per acre of $100.03 with the $92.96 average per sale again indicates that higher prices are associated with the larger acreages. The range of values on a per acre basis are from $40.46 in the 4 B grade to $124.72 in grade I A. .The I B grade average sale price is again higher than the average sale price for the preceding grade. Table XVI. The scatter diagram in Figure 5 shows a large amount of variation around the line of regression. is $36.12. This may. be seen in The standard error of estimation In converting this figure to a 95 per cent confidence level it is found that the rangfe of variability around the regression line for finding sale prices with 95 per cent confidence may be found within the limits of plus or'minus $70.80. A confidence interval for the b values may be found with 95 per cent confidence between the limits of 6.1213 plus or minus 1.2336. is ,6294. The standard error of the coefficient of regression (Sj3) The coefficient of determination for all counties is .23389. This indicates that 23.389 per cent of the variation in sales prices is associated with the productivity ratings. A Basic Schedule of Values It has been proposed in this research project that a basic schedule of values may be obtained by using sales prices paid for land3 based on its productivity rating as an indication of the relative value of the grades of land. It seems rational to assume the level of the sale prices paid for land is too high. In 1959, the rate of return, nationwide, on market values' of land after the deduction of all costs was estimated at 45 Price Per Acre Adjusted to 1959 Value Level Bushels of Wheat Per Acre Figure 5. a/ Fitting a Straight Line to Sale Prices From Chouteau, Daniels, Fergus, Judith Basin and Teton counties on a Productivity Basis by the Formula Y = - 19.74 + 6.1213X. a/ The dotted lines show the extreme ranges for finding the true slope of the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level. 46 - TABLE XIII. Grade of Farm Land (I) TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR TETON COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Total Amount of Money Under Consideration Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level (2) 2 A 2 B TOTAL a/ $24,750 74,720 $99,470 Total Acres Under Consideration (3) 240 801 1,041 Average Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level a/ (4) $103.13 93.28 $ 95.55 Size of Sample (5) I 3 4 The average price weighted by acres paid I,s derived by dividing the figure entered in column (2) by the corresponding figure in column (3) TABLE XIV. Grade of Farm Land (I) 3 A 3 B 4 A TOTAL TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND .THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON -IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR DANIELS COUNTY ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Total Amount of Money Under Consideration Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level (2) $ 46,617, 15,302 48,435 $110,354 Total Acres Under Consideration (3) $ 855 474 1,090 $2,419 Average Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level a/ (4) $54.52 32.28 44.44 $45.62 Size o: Sample (5) 4 2 . 4 10 Ji/ The average price weighted by acres paid Is derived by dividing the figure entered in column (2) by the corresponding figure in column (3), three per cent.-Z If it may be! assumed that 6 per cent is a fair rate of return for owners of farm land based on earnings, the sale price of farm Jl/ United'States Department of Agriculture^' Otrrent 'JDeveItpments' in the Farm ReaT'Estate Market. Washington...D.' Agricultural: Research Service,-MayyvI960j pp. 6-8. 47 - TABLE XV. SUMMARY OF 1959 SALE PRICES AND HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION BY GRADE FOR CHOUTEAU, DANIELS, FERGUS, JUDITH BASIN AND TETON COUNTIES. Bushels of Wheat (2) Grade of Farm Land (I) I I I I I •2 2 A 3 A 2 Al A B A B Average Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level a/ (3) over 30 28 - 29 26 - 27 24-25 22 - 23 20 - 21 18 - 19 16 - 17 14 - 15 12 - 13 10 - 11 8 — 9 under 8 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B 5 TOTALS . $ Hypothetical Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level b/ (4) Size of Sample (5) $166.96 154.71 142.47 — — - - 118.79 ' 137.10 121.15 89.55 85.07 70.78 M a* OU — 130.23 33 117.98 '13 105.74 93.50 81.26 136 47 36 69.01 28 41.37 56.77 44.53 32.29 6 11 2 $392.96 20.04 $.92.96 312 44.65 39.22 a/ This is the average price paid per sale. b/ Hypothetical averages calculated from the linear, regression equation Y = - 19.74 + 6.I213X. land obtained In Table XVI can be divided by one-half in order to allow a 6 per cent return on investment. Table XVII. This calculation is demonstrated in Column (4) is the "basic value" obtained, in this analysis. Column (5) is the taxable valuation obtained by taking 30 per cent of the "basic value." It must be emphasized that the valuations obtained here are basic and the county 'assessors still must do a job. If It is deemed necessary for the county assessors to deviate from this basic schedule of values In - 48 order to find taxable valuations due to such differences in farms as distance from town, difference- in distance to school, quality-of roads, etc., some uniform method of deviating from the basic schedule of values should be adopted in order that the tax valuation process will remain orderly on a statewide basis. TABLE XVI. Grade of Farm Land (I) I A I B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B ' TOTALS a/ SUMMARY QF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ACRES BOUGHT, TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY PAID AND THE AVERAGE SALE PRICES PAID BY GRADE WITHIN THE NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION FOR CHOUTEAU, DANIELS, FERGUS, JUDITH-BASIN, AND TETON COUNTIES ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Total Amount of Money Under Consideration Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level (2) $1,414,879.01 742,606.50 . 1,765,953.85 5,088,982.16 ' 1,431,900.22 576,057.00 52,402.00 •91,976.70 7,890.00 $11,172,647.44 Total Acres Under Consideration (3) 11,344 5,356 14,849 52,365 16,780 ■ 8,394 1,234 1 2,180 195 ■ 112,697 Average Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a Size oJ 1959 Value Level Sample . (4) a/ (5) $124.72 138.-65 - 118.93 97.18 85.33 68.63 42.47 42.19 40.46 $100.03 ' 33 13 36 136 47 28 6 11 2 312 This is the average sale price weighted by acres. ; It is derived by dividing column (2) by column (3). - 149 - TABLE XVII. Grade of Farm Land . Cl) I I I I I 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 A 3 A 2 A I A B A B C A B A B SCHEDULE OF HYPOTHETICAL SALE PRICES ON THE NON-IRRIGATED FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION AND THE RESULTING TAXABLE VALUATION ADJUSTED TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL. Bushels of Wheat Per Acre (2) over 30 28 - 29 26 - 27 24-25 22 - 23 20 18 16 14 12 10 - 21 19 17 15 13 11 Hypothetical Sale Prices by Grade Adjusted to a 1959 Value Level a/ (3) $166.96 154.71 142.47 130.23 117.98 105.74 93.50 81.26 69.01 56.77 44.53 8 - 9 32.29 under 8 20.04 One-Half of Hypothetical Sale Value b/ . (4) ~ Taxable Valuation c/ (5) $83.48 77.36 71.24 $25.04 23.21 21.37 65.12 58.99 19.54 52.87 46.75 40.63 34.51 15.86 14.03 17.70 12.19 28.39 22.27 10.35 8.52 6.68 16.15 10.02 4.85 3.01 a/ Hypothetical average sales value by grade taken from Table XVI. b/ Dividing the values in column (3) by one-half allows 6 per cent earnings on farm land. This calculation was made in order that the basic schedule of values will reflect 6 per cent earnings on farm land instead of the 3 per cent earnings that were made nationwide in 1959. c/ Derived by taking 30 per cent of column (4). CHAPTER V •SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Summary In this study, the rising level of property taxes on a nationwide basis and in Montana was discussed. It was also pointed out that inequa­ lities in levying property taxes exists within counties in Montana as well, as between counties. Examples of the inequalities in assessment and classification of land was presented as proof of the need for reclassi­ fication and revaluation of property for taxation purposes. A discussion of the methods that may be used in finding a basic schedule of values was -presented, pointing out the strong and weak points of each method. A more detailed discussion of problems met in using sale prices of land in arriving at a basic schedule of values was offered because attention was focused on the method in this study. The methodology used to arrive at a basic schedule of values by grade for the non-irrigated tillable farm land classification was presented in detail. Ldnding agencies, county assessors and other interested people, and county deed recording books were listed as the sources of sales data for this study. , The information needed on a transaction in order to arrive at a specific sale price for a specific grade of farm land was a complete legal description of the land sold, total acres involved in the sale, the number of acres under cultivation, an appraisal value on the sod, value of the buildings at the time of sale, the total purchase price, and the year of sale. - 51 In order to trace the method used in arriving at the specific sale price for a specific grade of farm land, an actual sale of farm land was used as an example. The legal description of the land involved In the sale was used to find the use classification and grade put on the land by .. the 'county classifiers. Through a process of weighting an average grade was found for the farm land involved in the sale. Building and sod values were subtracted from the total purchase price of the tract to arrive at the price paid for the farm land. In order to get an adequate sample, the sales from more than one year were used in this study. The sales that ' I ' were used covered the II-year period from 1950 through 1960. Because the overall level of land values were changing and corrections for price level changes had to be made, an Index of farm land values for, Montana was used to correct sale prices to the 1959 level of values. The next step was to divide the number of acres of farm landby the amount’of money paid. The resulting answer was,an average price paid per acre, at the 1959 value level, for a specific grade of farto land. In cases where buildings were included in a sale but did not have a value put on them by an appraiser, a method was developed through the use of a buildings and fencing materials index to value the buildings as of the year of sale.' This was accomplished by applying a conversion factor to the 1959 level of appraised values put on the buildings by the county classifiers. The building’s value as of the year of sale was then subtra­ cted from the total price paid for the tract. It was brought out in this study that sale prices of land taken from county deed recording books could be established within a narrow range - 5.2 through the interpretation of the revenue stamps bought when the deed was recorded. It was also brought out in this study if sales' of land had more than 10 per cent sod and the sod did not have a value put on it by an appraiser, the sale was not used. If less than 10 per cent of the transaction was made up of sod it was assumed the tract was bought as farm land. Statistical analysis was performed individualIy on Chouteau, Fergus, and Judith Basin counties. The summary analysis also included a scattering of sales from Daniels and Teton counties. A schedule of hypothetical.land values was derived through the use of a linear regression equation. A basic schedule of land Szfalues was obtained through a division of the hypothetical land values by one-half. The idea was to allow a 6 per cent earnings as the rate of return for market values of farm land instead of the estimated 3 per cent return that was made in 1959. The taxable valuation was found by taking 30 per cent of the basic value. Inferences made from the sales data used in this study and the statistical analysis performed on this data seems to'indicate that only a small portion of the variability in sale prices of farm land Is associ­ ated with productivity. It was found in Chouteau County that sale prices based on productivity can be found from the regression line within a range of plus or minus $68.25 with 95.per cent confidence. In Fergus County the sale prices could be found within plus or minus $102.81 from the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level. Judith Basin County . also had a large margin for error-in finding the sale price of farm land 53 based on productivity. .With 95 per cent confidence the sale price could be found within plus or minus $105.63 from the regression line. The margin needed to find the sale price based on productivity for all counties from the regression line at the 95 per cent confidence level was plus or minus $70.80. The large margins around the regression lines needed to find the sale prices indicates that sale prices of farm land cannot be predicted accurately from productivity ratings. The derivation of a coefficient of determination gave some indication of the percentage of variability of sale prices on farm land that was associated with the productivity ratings on the farm land. The coefficient of determination by county was Chouteau County .195654, Fergus County .563878, Judith Basin County .071508, and for all counties is .23389. The coefficient of determination for Fergus County suggests that a 56.38 per cent association exists between sale prices and productivity ratings. The coefficient of determination for Chouteau and Judith Basin counties did not even approach . this figure. ■Even in Fergus County the association is only apparent approximately one-half of the time. The ranges in which the true slope of the 'regression lines could fall were calculated. It was•found that the range for finding the true slope of the regression line was relatively small in all counties except■Judith Basin. Several suggestions were offered in explanation for the poor statisti­ cal results obtained in this study. Those offered were that variables such as acreage allotments, distances from markets, distance of. the acquired — 54 — land from the farmstead, hobby farming, buying of land for tax offset purposes, size of existing farms and land speculation are playing a role in the prices paid for farm land. It was also brought out that intangible values such as sentimental values, location with respect to scenery and recreation, and community attitudes may also be affecting farm land sale prices. Another possibility is that errors exist in the grading of farm land within a county as well as between the counties. This could be one reason for the differences in the slope of the regression line between the counties. One reason advanced for any differences in grading that may exist is that all counties may not be using the same period of years in figuring their productivity averages. It was also suggested that ■incomplete knowledge of market opportunities, lack of judgment on farm land values and the lack of homogeneous characteristics in farm land are factors ' contributing to the wide variations in the sale prices. It was observed in this study that higher prices were being paid for the larger acreages. This was checked by dividing sales of land into tracts under 500 acres and tracts over 500 acres. It was found in Judith Basin and Fergus counties that higher prices were paid for the larger acreages. A suggestion that larger acreages include more buildings was checked and the results were inconclusive. Another suggestion offered was .that higher prices are paid for large acreages because of a larger number of bidders while 'small tracts only receive bids from people in the immediate area. - 55 Conclusions The hypothesis advanced in this study must be rejected because the evidence presented indicates that' other variables are very important in determining sale prices paid for farm land besides the productivity ratings. This may be true particularly for the period of years used in this study, for Dr. Layton Thompson and Dr. ML M. Kelso did a similar study using sales data from the early 1930's through 1951 and obtained significant correlation between sale prices and productivity ratings. This suggests the possibility that the association between sale price and productivity ratings may be more significant in some other period of time.. However, one difference does exist in the studies. The productivity ratings used in the Thompson-Kelso study were taken from the records of­ fending agency appraisers while the productivity ratings used in this study were supplied by county classifiers. Another suggestion is to use the landlord share method described earlier in this study to arrive at a basic schedule of farm land values. The values obtained in this study oh sale prices may then be used as a comparison with the values obtained in the landlord share method. Some adjustment may be made between the two values in order to arrive at a basic schedule of values. \f Layton S. Thompson, and M. M. Kelso, Valuation of Montana Agricultural Land for Tax Purposes. Unpublished Bulletin, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Montana State College, Bozeman, Montana May, 1959, p. 27. - 56 - Need For Further Research It is 'obvious from the analysis conducted in this study that other variables besides productivity are affecting the sale prices paid for farm land. The poor statistical results in this study may be explained by both tangible and intangible factors. Some items affecting sale prices of farm land are acreage allotments, distances from markets, distance of the acquired land from the farmstead, hobby farmers,size of existing farm unit, buying of land for tax offset purposes, speculators In the land market, sentimental values, location with,respect to scenery and recreation, and community attitudes. If further research is done in this area it is suggested the sales data on farm land be analyzed by a multiple regression equation. A recommended multiple regression equation model might contain the following variables; acreage allotments, distances from markets, distance of the purchased tract from the farmstead of the buyer, produc­ tivity values and size of the existing unit. It is recognized by the author that other variables are affecting farm land values but the natureof these variables are such that it is hard to quantify them and thus, it would be extremely difficult to fit them in a multiple regression equation. The rejection of the hypothesis does not mean that the basic schedule of values developed in this study cannot be useful for tax assessment purposes. Some degree of relationship of the tax paying ability between the grades is expressed in these values. The statistical results do not show a close association between sale prices of farm land and productivity ratings but the basic schedule of values presented should help to bring order to the tax assessment process. The author feels this is- true because a fairly large number of farm land sales are used in the analysis. This should allow for an averaging out of the effects that acreage allotments, size of the existing farm unit, distance from markets, etc., have on the basic schedule of values. - 58 - APPENDICES ,59 - APPENDIX-A CHAPTER 198 SESSION LAWS OE 1955 "AN ACT PROVIDING FOR THE CLASSIFICATION OF LANDS, AND THE APPRAISAL OF CITY AND ,TOWN LOTS AND RURAL AND URBAN IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STATE OF MONTANA FOR ASSESSMENT AND TAXATION PURPOSES; DEFINING THE DUTIES' OF THE BOARDS OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS, COUNTY ASSESSORS, AND THE STATE BOARD OF EQUALIZATION IN CONNECTION THEREWITH, PROVIDING FOR A TAX LEVY; AND REPEAL­ ING SECTIONS 84-430:T0 84-437 INCLUSIVE, REVISED CODES OF MONTANA. OF 1947, AND ALL ACTS AND PARTS OF ACTS IN CONFLICT HEREWITH." Be It Enacted By the Legislative Assembly of the State of Montana; Section I. It is hereby made the duty of the board of countycommissioners of the several counties of the state of Montana to accomplish, in such manner as the state board of equalization may direct, the following; a. The classification of all taxable lands. b. The appraisal of all taxable city and town lots. c. The appraisal of all taxable rural and urban improvements. A record thereof must be kept upon such maps,- plats and forms, and entered in such books of record as may be prescribed by the State Board of Equalization. Such maps, plats, forms and books of record shall be official records of the county. A certified copy of all such records as may be desired- shall be furnished to the State Board of Equalization, and the State Board of Equalization shall provide for the payment to the several counties of "the cost!of preparing such copy of the records so provided for, as they may require. After compliance with the other provisions of this Act, it shall be the duty of the board of county commissioners to maintain current, the classification of all taxable lands, and appraisal of city and town lots, and rural and urban improvements, as provided for herein. Section '2. The board of-county commissioners shall create and estab­ lish a fund to be known as the "Classification and Appraisal Fund" and may levy annually a tax not to exceed two (2) mills upon all property in the county subject to taxation, the proceeds of which shall be deposited by the county treasurer to the credit of such fund, and any balance unexpended at the end of any fiscal year shall remain in such.fund and be available to carry out the provisions of this Act. All costs and expenses 60 incurred by the board of county commissioners for such work, labor, services and supplies required by this act, shall be paid by warrants drawn on said fund on claims approved by said board; and the board of county commissioners is hereby authorized to declare an emergency and issue such warrants in the manner provided by Section 16-1907 of the Revised Codes of Montana of 1947. Section 3. The county assessor must base the assessments of all lands, city and town lots, and all improvements on the classification and appraisal as made by the board of county commissioners. Section 4. It is the intent of this Act that classification and appraisal be initiated expeditiously, but in no event later than July I, 1957 and shall be completed not later than five years from the effective date of this act. Section 5, It shall be the duty of the board of county commissioners to cause to be mailed to each owner a notice of the classification of the land owned by him and the appraisal of the improvements thereon. If the owner' of any land and improvements be dissatisfied with the classification of his land or the appraisal of the improvements, the board'.of county commissioners shall give reasonable notice to such taxpayer of the time and place of hearing and hear any testimony or other evidence which the taxpayer may desire to produce at such time and afford the opportunity to other interested persons to produce evidence at such hearings and thereafter the board of county commissioners shall determine the true and correct classification of such land or appraisal of such improvements and forthwith notify the taxpayer of their determination and when so determined the land shall be classified and improvements appraised in the manner ordered by the board of county commissioners. If any property owner shall feel aggrieved at the classification and/or the appraisal so made by the Board of County Commissioners he shall have the right to appeal to the State Board of Equalization whose findings, shall be final subject to the right of review in the proper courts. Section 6. It is hereby made the duty of the State Board of Equali­ zation to implement the provisions of this act by providing; 1, For a general and uniform method of classifying lands in the state of Montana for the purpose of securing an equitable and uniform basis of assessment of said land for taxation purposes. All lands shall be classified according to their use or uses and graded within each class according to soil and productivetcapac&ty. In such classification work, use shall be made of soil surveys and maps and all other pertinent available information. All lands must be classified by forty (40) acre tracts or fractional lots. 2, For a general and uniform method of appraising city and town lots. - 61 3. For a general and uniform method of appraising rural and urban improvements. 4. For a general and uniform method o f appraising timber lands. Section 7. Any and all work performed or caused to be performed by the boards of county commissioners of the various counties for the classification of lands and appraisal of city and town lots and rural and urban-improvements, under the provisions of Chapter 198, Laws of 1955, is hereby declared to be valid and of the same effect as if performed under the provisions of this Act. Section 8. Sections 84-430 to 84-437, inclusive, of the Revised Codes of Montana, 1947, and Chapter 198 of the Session Laws of 1955 and all acts and parts of acts in conflict herewith and hereby repealed. Section 9. This act shall be in full force and effect from and after its passage and approval. ■Approved March 9, 1957 62 - APPENDIX B TABLE I. PRODUCTION LIMITS USED IN ASSIGNING LAND TO A GRADE FOR THE ,NON-IRRIGATED TILLABLE FARM LAND CLASSIFICATION. Grade I.A 3 I A 2 IAl I A 1 B 2 A 2 B 2 C 3 A 3 B 4 A 4 B 5 Bushels of Wheat Per Acre 29.5 27.5 25.5 23.5 21.5 19.5 17.5 15.5 13.5 11.5 9.5 7.5 7.49 and over to 29.49 to 27.49 to 25.49 to 23.49 to 21.49 to 19.49 to 17.49 to 15.49 to 13.49 to 11.49 to 9.49 and under 63 - APPENDIX C TABLE I. Index Farm Real Estate Prices 1947-4.9 = 100 (l) Year 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 * INDEX OF CHANGES IN FARM REAL ESTATE PRICES 1947 - 1949 = 100 AND THE CONVERSION FACTORS NECESSARY TO ADJUST SALE PRICES TO A 1959 VALUE LEVEL.* ' 105 126 139 145 147 153 159. 164 174 192 201 Index Farm Real Estate Conversion Factors Prices 1959 = 100 a/ to Adjust Prices t< . (2) '59 Levels b/ (3) 55 66 72 76 77 80 83 85 91 100 105. 1.82 1.52 1.39 1.32 1.30 1.25 I -.20 1.18 1.10 1.00 .95 ' Index taken from the Current Developments in the Farm Real Estate. Market9 Agricultural Research Service, U.S.D.A., May5 1957, 1955, and 1960. a/ The 1959 = 100 index is derived by dividing the index number for each year by the desired base year. b/ The conversion factor is found by dividing index for current data by ' index .for earlier data. Examples the 1959 index of 100 is divided by • the index for 1958 of 91 with a resulting conversion factor of 1.10. Any price on farm real estate sold in 1958 is then multiplied b y '1.10 in order to bring the 1958 price up to the 1959 level. - 64 TABLE II. Year (I) INDEX OF PRICES PAID BY MONTANA FARMERS AND RANCHERS FOR BUILDINGS AND FENCING MATERIALS USING. 1947 - 1949 = IOO AND CONVERSION FACTORS NECESSARY TO ADJUST BUILDING VALUES TO YEAR OF SALE.* Index for Building and Fencing Materials Prices 1947-1949 = 100 a/ (2) HO 120 124 125 125 128 132 140 138 138 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 • ' * Source: Conversion Factors to Adjust Building Values to Year of Sale b/ (3) 1.25 1.15 1.11 I. IO 1.10 1.08 1.05 .99 1.00 1.00 ' " •% Maurice C. Taylor, P. J. Creer and R. D. Rawson, Prices Received and Prices Paid by Montana Farmers, and Ranchers. 1949-1959. Montana Agricultural Experiment Station in cooperation with the Agricultural Marketing Service,. United States Department of Agriculture, Montana State College Agricultural Experiment Station, Bozeman, Montana, 1959, p. 32. a/ The conversion factor is found by dividing the index for current value by the index for earlier date. Examples the 1958 index of 138 divided by 140 = .99. b/ The 1959 building material costs may be converted back to any of the listed years by dividing the sound value of the buildings by the conversion factor in column '-(3). 65 - APPENDIX D. TABLE I. FORMULAS USED IN THIS ANALYSIS.* Average Sale Price = Y Average Production = X 2 Xy1=SXY - (SSBtZl). N .2 2x2 = 2 X 2- I z I l ' 2Y2=2Y2-iYP Value of b = ZyS Value o f .a = Y - b X Standard error of estimate of sales prices (Y) as estimated from production QE'). s .x = \ y<y ~ b ^ ^Y- y N - 2 An estimate of the standard error of the coefficient of regression is: Sy^ . X Sb = Coefficient of determination: ~2 d - b2 2 J2S Zy2 * Method suggested by Dr. Edward H. Ward. 66 “ TABLE II.. Statistical Notations Z xy Z x2 z STATISTICAL VALUES OBTAINED FOR CHOUTEAU, FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES AND TOTALS FOR ALL COUNTIES.* Chouteau County 8,316.7445 1,438.4485 245,766.544 Fergus County 9,418.5360 • 1,0 2 1 .4 8 5 8 154,099.0919 Judith Basin County 1,048.98 199.8572 76,994.5358 $34.82 5.7817 .9182 $ 3 1 .4 3 - 24.42 .195654 - 54.0695 .563878 + 7.0304 .071508 I 19.203 17.0143 18.7857 I $86.61 $102.81 $105.63 Sy.X b Sb a d * 9.2204 .9833 $34.23 5.2486 2.4214 Totals 20,166.642 3,294.4872 528,102.299 $36.12 6.1213 .6294 - 1 9.74 .23389 18.4103 $92.96 See Appendix D 9 Table I for the formulas used to arrive at these values. - -67 - APPENDIX E TABLE I. Year 1950 ■ 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 SUMMARY OF TOTAL ACRES SOLD, TOTAL PRICE PAID AND tOTAL NUMBER OF SALES FOR THE YEARS 1950 - .I960 USED IN DERIVING THE BASIC SCHEDULE OF VALUES. Total Acres Sold 11,749 8,611 5,492 12,285 12,687 12,408 9,780 8,306 10,386 17,866 3,127 Total Price Paid Total Number of Sales $535,950.00 37 455,740.00 423,450.00 866,792.00 907,168.00 1,246,537.00 . 763,702.00 667,715.00 983,081.00 1,953,542.00 270,741.00 22 17 42 34 34 31 25 . 33 32 5 68 - BIBLIOGRAPHY Ackerman,■Joseph, "Need For a Uniform Tax Valuation System", Proceedings— Land Valuation Conference. Fort Collins, Colorado, June 17-19,1952. American Federation of Labor and Congress,of Industrial Organization, ■ State and Local Taxes. December, 1958. Barlowe, Raleigh, Land Resource Economics; Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1958. Bonright., James C., Valuation of Property, McGrawrHill Book Co., New York, New York, 1937. Bower, J ohn C ., The History. Need For, and Present Land Reclassification Law. Mimeographed Report, Montana State College Experiment ,Station, Bozeman, Montana, February, 1959. Bradford, Lawrence A. and Glenn L. Johnson, Farm Management Analysis. John.Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, New York, 1953. Crouse, Earl F., and Charles H. Everett, Rural Appraisals. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1957. Halcrow, Harold G., and H. R. Stucky, Procedure for Land Reclassification in Montana. Montana State College Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 459, February, 1949. Lawrence, John D., The Effect of Increasing Farm Size on Land Values. Master's Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Montana State College, Bozeman, Montana, May, 1958. Lord, H. H., S. W. Voelker and L. F. Gieseker, Standards and Procedures for Classification and Valuation of Land For Assessment Purposes. Montana State College Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 404, Bozeman, Montana, June, 1942. Mason, John E., "Acreage Allotments and Land Prices," The Journal of Land and Public Utility Economics. Volume XXII, No. 2, May, 1946. ■McDonald, Rita, Montana Land Classification Technique— Its Application and Evaluation. Term Paper, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Montana State College, Bozeman, Montana, 1959. Mills, Fredrick C., Statistical- Methods. Henry'Holt and.'/Co., New York, New York, 1955. - '69 Montana State Board of Equalization, Eighteenth Biennial Report. Helena, Montana, 1958. Murray, William G., Farm Appraisal. Iowa State College Press, Arne's, Iowa, 1950. Renne, R..R. and 0. H. Brownlee, Uncollected Property Taxes in MontanaMontana State College Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 382, Bozeman, Montana, August, 1940. Samuelson, Paul A,, Economics. McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York, New York, 1958» Thompson, Layton S., and M. M. Land Far Tax Purposes. Agricultural Economics Bozeman, Montana, May, Kelso, Valuation of Montana Agricultural Unpublished Bulletin, Department of arid Rural Sociology, Montana State College, 1959. Thompson, Layton S., Changing Aspects of the Farm Real Estate Situation in Montana 1940 to. 1946. Montana State College Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 440, January, 1947. United States Department of/Agriculture, Current Developments in the Farm Real Estate Market. Agricultural Research Service, Washington, D.C., (Way, I960. I '! ' 1762 1«7£63