EAD Portfolio Analysis:
Dependency and Diversification in
the NGATS Portfolio
Dan Goldner (Ventana Systems, Inc.)
Jack Fearnsides (MJF Strategies)
18 July 2006
Attributes of an OI
1.
What constraint(s) does the OI address?
2.
What R&D activities are required for the OI to be implemented?
3.
Which of the other OIs are prerequisites to the OI?
4.
What enabling systems or infrastructure are required?
We labeled OIs as having an effect on one or more of the following considerations:
noise, emissions, runway capacity, terminal airspace capacity, enroute capacity,
oceanic capacity, bad-weather capacity, landside capacity, airport surface
capacity, certification capacity, security, safety, cost
PMD provided us with a list from Ed Koenke et al. of 97 R&D topics distilled out of
the Agency Budget Guidance and associated with OIs from an old roadmap.
Starting from Koenke’s mapping, JF labeled each OI with one or more of the 97
R&D activities required to produce the OI.
Based on the descriptions of each OI from the Roadmap, JF labeled each OI with
any other OIs that seemed to be prerequisites.
These were provided for many OIs in the Roadmap. For the remaining OIs, we
assumed “none”.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Our choices for each OI of constraints
addressed, R&D tasks required, prerequisite OIs, and enabling
infrastructure are our best estimate from the information
provided, but we consider them to be PLACEHOLDERS
pending a thorough review by the IPTs via PMD.
Noise OIs, R&D
No ise
seg 0
seg2
seg 1
seg 3
seg 5
seg 6
seg 7
oi090
oi091
oi085
oi077
oi084
rd068
oi083
oi078
oi075
seg 4
oi076
rd056
rd055
rd060
oi081
oi082
oi088
oi086
oi089
Runway OIs, Platforms, and R&D
Runway
seg 1
seg 3
seg2
rd091
rd073
rd078
rd020
rd008
rd022
oi152
oi147
oi168
rd080
rd021
oi163
rd055
rd069
oi179
oi103
oi109
rd068
oi107
oi106
<oi135>
<oi155>
CDTI/MMD
ADS -B
seg 5
oi118
rd070
oi161
oi182
seg 4
oi149
<oi134> rd074 rd071
rd081
seg 6
oi119
Enroute OIs, Platforms and R&D
Enroute
seg 0
seg 1
CDTI/MMD
oi187
seg2
seg 3
ADS -B
seg 4
oi160
oi188
oi123
oi125
oi124
oi126
o i137
o i138
<oi142>
o i143
ERAM
<oi107>
rd079
oi179
<oi139>
o i120
o i121
oi180
oi181
rd075 S WIM
S DN
S DP
<oi109>
rd068
rd055
oi197
oi200
oi141
oi140
o i145
<oi106>
seg 6
Data link
oi192
o i144
seg 5
oi142
oi164
oi110
oi117
oi169
oi193
oi194
oi170
oi127
oi129
oi128
oi130
oi198
oi199
Weather OIs
seg 0
seg 1
Weather
seg2
oi006
oi023
seg 4
oi027
oi009
oi008
oi012
oi030
oi001
oi022
oi029
oi003
oi024
oi028
oi026
oi002
oi004
oi014
seg 3
oi015
oi005
oi016
seg 5
seg 6
seg 7
oi013
oi010
oi031
oi120
oi011
oi025
oi017
oi007
oi018
oi019
oi032
oi020
oi021
seg 0
Weather OI’s and Platforms
seg 1
Weather
seg2
Ground vortex sensors
oi006
Ground
wx
senso rs
A/C wx senso rs
oi023
UAT F IS -B
seg 4
oi027
oi009
oi008
oi012
oi030
oi001
oi022
oi029
oi003
oi024
oi028
oi002
S pace Wx S ensors
oi004
oi014
seg 3
oi015
oi026
oi005
oi016
oi120
oi017
NE XRAD
seg 6
A/G datalink
seg 7
oi013
oi010
NE O
oi031
Data link
Wx NE O Dissemination S ystem
oi011
oi025
oi007
S WIM
F IS -B
seg 5
oi018
oi019
oi032
oi020
oi021
Weather OIs, platforms, and R&D
Gro und vo rtex sensors
rd059
rd002
seg 0
UAT F IS -B
rd078
rd027
seg2
oi006
A/C wx sensors
oi023
rd028
oi009
oi008
oi012
oi030
oi003
oi024
oi028
oi026
oi015
oi005
oi016
S WIM
rd026
seg 5
seg 6
oi013
oi010
NE O
oi031
oi120
oi025
oi017
NEXRAD
seg 7
F IS -B
Wx NE O Disseminatio n S ystem
oi018
oi007
rd030
rd001
oi027
oi029
oi004
oi014
seg 4
oi022
oi002
rd056
seg 3
oi001
rd029
S pace Wx S enso rs
A/G datalink
Weather
seg 1
rd008
Ground wx sensors
rd006
oi011
Data link
oi019
oi020
oi032
rd004
rd017
oi021
Similar structures (not shown)
exist for:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Terminal
Landside (people, baggage, cargo)
Surface Movement of Aircraft (taxiing etc)
Oceanic
Certification
Security
Safety
oi131
oi147
oi148
ADS
oi185
CDTI
oi185
oi001
oi149
oi002
oi152
oi153
ADS-B
oi131
A/G datalink
oi147
oi030
oi148
oi032
oi149
oi126
oi151
oi010
oi152
Data link
oi132
oi133
oi011
oi153
oi154
oi012
oi154
oi134
oi155
oi013
oi155
oi135
oi156
oi001 CDTI/MMD
oi157
oi002
oi158
A/C wx sensors
oi156
oi157
oi158
oi003
oi159
oi160
oi010
oi160
oi161
oi012
oi161
oi013
oi162
oi162
oi163
oi163
oi164
Ground wx sensors
oi165
oi201
oi224
Ground vortex sensors
ERAM
oi004
oi009
oi164
oi165
oi186
oi006
oi144
oi145
ERAM/URET
oi223
ETMS/ASD
oi223
FIS-B
oi030
oi030
NEO
oi069
NEXRAD
oi007
oi005
oi005
oi007
oi015
oi008
oi016
oi015
oi017
oi016
oi018
oi017
oi018
SWIM
NNEW
oi019
oi021
oi020
oi025
oi021
oi026
oi023
oi027
oi024
oi028
SDP
oi026 SDN
oi027
oi028
oi200
Satcom
UAT FIS-B
oi167
WVAS
oi200
oi200
oi165
oi186
oi066
oi067
oi068
Policy
oi003
oi022
oi020
oi019
oi025
Space Wx Sensors
oi069
oi071
oi072
oi073
This model estimates capacity as a function of the %
complete and the success of R&D, platform, and OI
tasks and the % of the fleet equipped for each platform
equipage start
equipage rate
benefit vs equipage Pareto
fraction
fleet
equipped
task success
fraction constraint change realized
planned endstate constraint
equipage effect
constraint change
constraint level
scheduled start
task is active
spending
baseline constraint
fraction planned benefit realized
fraction planned benefit expected
fraction
task
complete
binding constraint
shadow strength
constraint distance
benefit vs completion Pareto
burn rate planned duration
total cost
capacity
cumulative
cost
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
Task Completion
scheduled start
fraction planned benefit expected
2016
task is active
spending
burn rate
10
fraction task
complete
fraction planned benefit expected
5
1
8
planned duration benefit vs completion Pareto
4
0.6
5
7
8
5
6
8
2
1
5
6
4
2
7
8
1
5
4
3
2
3
0.75
Current
7
6
4
task is active[task]
1
0.5
oi103
oi118
0.25
oi119
oi149
0
3
2
1
2006
oi152
5
4
8
7
6
2009
2
1
4
3
7
6
2012
1
2
3
oi161
oi163
oi168
2006
2011
2016
Time (fy)
2020
2025
fraction planned benefit expected[oi103]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi118]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi119]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi149]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi152]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi161]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi163]
fraction planned benefit expected[oi168]
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
4
3
2015
2018
Time (fy)
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
2021
1
1
2
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
dmnl
2 dmnl
3
4
8
1
2
3
7
2024
8
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
Equipage
3
1
3
3
3
1
3
1
2
1
3
3
1
2
1
2
1
3
2
1
4
2
0.75
4
3
4
1
equipage start
2009
equipage rate
4
benefit vs equipage Pareto
fraction
fleet
equipped
2
3
1
0.9
equipage effect
4
4
2
3
0.5
4
0.21
fraction planned benefit realized
1
2
3
<fraction planned benefit expected>
4
0.25
2
1
4
<scheduled start>
2006
<planned duration>
12
4
2
0
2
1
2
1
4
4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
fraction fleet equipped[Data link] : Current
1
1
1
1
1
1 dmnl
Equipage Effect
dmnl
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Platform Implementaion 3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
dmnl
Realized Benefit
dmnl
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
OI Effectiveness
OI162 realized benefit (with prereqs)
1
2
1
0.75
1
2
1
3
2
3
5
3
4
5
2
4
1
7
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
7
6
0.5
5
1
4
3
5
4
0
7
6
7
6
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
1
1
1
rd072 realized benefit 1
dmnl
2
2
2
2
rd078 realized benefit
dmnl
3
3
3
rd079 realized benefit
dmnl
4
4
4
ADS-B realized benefit
dmnl
5
5
CDTI/MMD realized benefit 5
dmnl
6
6
6
oi167 realized benefit
dmnl
7
7
7
oi162 realized benefit
dmnl
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
0.25
Realized Fraction of Potential Constraint Change
Improvement in Runway Capacity
8
1
7
6
5
1
8
9
8
5
0.75
6
1
2
9
3
4
5
4
1
9
8
7
9
1
2
2010
4
3
7
6
2012
2
1
3
2014
4
2016
3
2018 2020
2022
2024
1
1
1
1
oi103 Realized
2
2
2
2
oi118 Realized
3
3
3
3
oi119 Realized
4
4
4
4
oi149 Realized
5
5
5
5
5
oi152 Realized
6
6
6
6
6
oi161 Realized
7
7
7
7
7
oi163 Realized
8
8
8
8
8
oi168 Realized
9
9
9
Overall Realized Improvement
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
dmnl
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
0
3
2
1
6
5
4
2006 2008
8
7
2
9
5
0.25
4
6
5
3
7
0.5
2
Magnitude of Potential Constraint Change
2,000
starting value for
noise, emissions,
runway and enroute
from Constraints
Analysis 3/06
1,700
?
1,400
?
starting value for other
constraints unknown,
TBD (constraints
analysis)
1,100
?
800
2006
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
2009
2012
level[emissions] : Current
level[enroute] : Current
level[landside] : Current
level[noise] : Current
level[runway] : Current
level[surface] : Current
level[terminal] : Current
level[weather] : Current
2015
2018
2021
ending values
unknown, TBD
(portfolio analysis)
2024
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
Overall Capacity
2,000
1,500
2
3
2
8
3
1,000
6
5
7
1
4
4
5
5
6
3
4
7
8
1
3
2
9
9
1
7
6
5
4
7
6
3
2
8
2
1
8
9
1
9
0
2006
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
Capacity
2009
2012
2015
level[emissions] : Current
level[enroute] : Current
level[landside] : Current
level[noise] : Current
level[runway] : Current
level[surface] : Current
level[terminal] : Current
level[weather] : Current 8
9
2018
1
2021
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
2024
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
500
Model also calculates consumer
surplus and NPV
equipage start
equipage rate
benefit vs equipage Pareto
fraction
fleet
equipped
task success
fraction constraint change realized
planned endstate constraint
equipage effect
constraint change
constraint level
scheduled start
task is active
spending
baseline constraint
fraction planned benefit realized
fraction planned benefit expected
fraction
task
complete
shadow strength
benefit vs completion Pareto
burn rate planned duration
discount
discount rate
factor
cumulative
cost
total cost
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
binding constraint
discounted net benefit
constraint distance
capacity
price
price elasticity
APO RPMs
consumer surplus gain <yield forecast>
NGATS NPV
“… gang aft agley”
0.5
0.5
0.25
0.25
0
0-0.2
0.2-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8
0.8-1
0
1. Assumed PDF of Intrinsic Task Success
75%
90%
95%
0.2-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8
0.8-1
2. Resulting Fractions Benefits Realized
60,000
45,000
1,100
30,000
15,000
800
2006
2011
2016
2020
3. Resulting Capacity PDF (rpm/yr)
2025
02022
2023
2024
2024
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
1,400
67%
0-0.2
2025
3. NPV through 2025 (M$)
Success in one constraint does not
make up for failure in another
2,000
8
7
2
3
1,500
2
8
3
1,000
5
7
6
5
4
7
6
1
1
4
3
4
6
5
8
7
6
4
5
8
2
3
2
7
8
5
6
2
3
4
1
9
1
9
9
1
9
9
0
2006
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
constraint
Capacity
2009
2012
level[emissions] : Current
level[enroute] : Current
level[landside] : Current
level[noise] : Current
level[runway] : Current
level[surface] : Current
level[terminal] : Current
level[weather] : Current 8
9
2015
2018
1
2
1
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
2024
b*rpm/fy
2 b*rpm/fy
2
3
9
2021
1
9
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
b*rpm/fy
Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.
500