Analysis of Annual Inventory Data
in Maine
Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician
Maine Forest Service (MFS)
NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA
April 13, 2004
3 Analysis Categories
Pass-Through to Northeastern Research
Station (NERS) usually a spatial estimate of a
specific polygonal area or a owner’s landbase
In-house (requests by the Maine Forest Service,
Department of Conservation, Governor’s Office,
or Maine Users)
Enhanced Collaboration (combinations of P2,
P3, auxiliary MFS data, and models)
Pass-Through
I serve as the facilitator
and a conduit to help
users frame their request
to NERS in regard to:
Area of interest
Species
Products
Table outputs
5 –6 requests per year
Examples include:
Due diligence for a
prospective timberland
acquisition
A large NIPF (1 Million acres)
comparing their in-house
inventory to exact FIA data
Shrub/Seedling/Sapling
composition in IF&W Habitat
Management Zones
Descriptive analysis of a
watershed (Salmon Habitat)
Pass-Through cont.
For this category, I do not see the analysis
results!
In-House
This is the most frequent category for analysis requests
(Average of 1 per month)
As a full-fledged cooperator, I have to be sensitive,
respectful, and law-abiding in regards to the
confidentiality issues surrounding some of the data
These analysis requests are more broad scale, I.e.
simple working circles, entire counties, or statewide
estimates
In-House, examples
Northern White Cedar
Inventory for Aroostook
County (Sawmill)
Merchantable inventory
within a 100 mile radius of
Fort Kent, ME (E D Director)
White Birch inventory and
quality in the Western Maine
FIA unit (E D Director)
Available Spruce-Fir
inventory that is 5.0” to
8.9” DBH, log quality,
and within 100 miles of
Greenville, ME (sawmill
expansion)
Available Spruce-Fir
inventory within 50 miles
of Dover-Foxcroft, ME
(sawmill expansion)
In-House, examples cont.
100 mile wood basket
of White Pine pulpwood
(pulp mill looking for a
cheaper fiber source)
of hemlock pulp (pulp mill
looking for a cheaper
fiber source)
of white pine (potential
new supply source for
OSB plant)
Bio-diversity indices –
distance of P2 plot to
nearest road, 15”+ dbh
TPA live, dead, snag
Volume distribution
between sawlog and
topwood
Projected annual
Spruce-Fir ingrowth over
next 10 years
Enhanced Collaboration
This category uses the synergy from
combining multiple data sources and
predictive models to produce estimates and
analysis that are either uncommon or
unique, but always interesting
Infrequent (3 – 4 per year), but much more
time-consuming
White Pine Management in the Core
Area (1959 – 2001)
Focused analysis on inventory, trends, and change in
the southern 1/3 of Maine that contains 2/3’s of the
White Pine Inventory (FIA data and MFS Data)
Land Use Changes
Forestland Conversion (P2 vs. MFS Reports)
Trends in Forest types and stand size
Product volume and log grades
Growth vs. Removals (P2 vs. MFS Processor Reports)
Figure 7A. Stand Size Class Representation (% - Left Y-Axis) and the Combined Change
in the White Pine, Oak, and Oak-Pine Forest Type Groups Acreage (Right Y-Axis)
within the Core Area
70%
2.00
66%
1.78
1.80
60%
60%
1.54
56%
1.46
50%
1.32
1.28
1.60
The Stand Size and Forest
Typing algorithms used to
categorize FIA plots have
differed for each of the
Inventory Years, preventing a
direct interpretation of any
definitive trends over the
40-year period.
1.40
44%
1.20
40%
38%
35%
1.00
30%
28%
28%
27%
Forest Type Acreage
(Million Acres)
0.80
0.60
20%
0.40
10%
7%
6%
0.20
4%
0%
1959
1971
1982
Inventory Year
1995
2000
Seedling/Sapling
Poletimber
Sawtimber
Forest Group Acreage
Soil Erosion Prediction
Combining data from P2 and P3 plots for input
into the the Disturbed WEPP model, resulting in
a probability prediction of an annual runoff,
erosion, and sediment estimate for three types of
plot areas:
Undisturbed
Harvested
1998 Ice Storm
Ice Storm Damage vs. Tree
Condition
Current poster session presents an analysis of
the correlation between changes in Tree
Condition between 1995 and a subsequent
annual P2 remeasurement (2001 – 2003) to 4
preliminary damage assessment groups aerially
conducted by the MFS immediately following the
1998 Ice Storm.
White Birch Availability - Regional
Pride Manufacturing, located in Maine and
Wisconsin, is the world’s largest producer of golf
tees (standard, oversized, and customized).
The wood drain area for the Burnham, ME mill
encompasses over 200 air miles.
With NERS help, an analysis of the availability of
suitable White Birch Inventory within a 4-state
region (MA, ME, NH, VT) was provided.
Trees to Oil – Pyrolysis
Received a request in January 2003, for an estimate of
available fiber sources (residue or biomass) that were
not committed to existing processing and deliverable to
an existing pulp/paper mill complex.
Utilized P2 estimates of separate biomass components
(bolewood, limbs and tops, foliage, stumps and roots,
cull trees, salvable dead trees, saplings, and shrubs for
selected 60 mile drain areas around 3 multiple mill
groups.
Pyrolysis Process
Department of Conservation
Maine Forest Service
January 2004
5
Pyrolysis, cont.
Utilized MFS annual county-level harvest estimates of
various products (sawlogs, sawmill residue, pulpwood,
biomass chips, and hog fuel) for determination of an
existing annual removal volume (dry tons) as a
percentage of standing inventory, ~ 2%.
Assumed that the same 2% volume basis of other unutilized biomass components (branches, cull trees,
salvable dead trees, and saplings) were available,
removable, and deliverable with existing infrastructure.
-5 mills in the
Southwest (blue
polygon) have
access to 7,000
dry tons per day
- 5 mills in the
Downeast Region
(red polygon)
have access to
8,500 dry tons
per day
-1 mill in the
North has access
to 2,500 dry tons
per day
Trends in Hardwood Sawtimber
In October 2001, based on the completion of 2
annual panels, I analyzed hardwood sawtimber
trends from 1959 – 2000 focusing on 5 species
(Red Maple, Sugar Maple, Yellow Birch, White
Birch, and Red Oak) and their :
Average sawtimber tree size (QMD)
Volume per acre of sawtimber
Proportion of sawtimber by various grades
S awtimber (Board Feet/Acre) of 5 Major Hardwood S pecies,
by Tree G rade and by Inventory Y ear
834
B F/ A c r e
900
734
B F/ A c r e
750
591
600
492
B F/ A c r
478
B F/ A c r e
B oa r d Fe e t
pe r
B F/ A c r e
450
Acr e
300
150
1959
1971
1982
1995
2000
Gr ade 1
94.4
64.9
61.2
69.9
120.2
Gr ade 2
141.2
116.8
142.1
168.7
224.8
Gr ade 3
178.1
254.5
289.1
359.2
361.8
Pallet Log
64.5
55.5
98.6
135.8
127.6
I nv e nt or y Y e a r
Trends, cont.
On Thursday, I will revisit the exact same topic
with the exact same association, refreshing the
analysis to represent the current 4 annual
panels.
Has the forecast changed?
NO
Is the forecast more accurate?
YES
Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Credits
Maine has a legislative mandate to reverse its level of
greenhouse gas emissions by 2010.
Achieving this goal requires understanding trends and
current estimates of the various contributors to
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
As the following graph shows, these early estimates
placed the LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry)
category as being the #2 problem area, and responsible
for emitting 19% of the 2000 GHG mix.
Agriculture
1%
2000 GHG Mix
Electric Utilities
Industrial Process
2%
5%
Agriculture
Commercial
6%
Transportation
34%
Electric Utilities
Waste
6%
Industrial
Process
Commercial
Waste
Industrial
11%
Industrial
Residential
LUCF
Transportation
LUCF
19%
Residential
16%
GHG, cont.
MFS with the help of the NERS, an Ag-Forestry
Working Group, and other consultants has been actively
rebutting those estimates and trends, while offering
better data and methods for accounting for Carbon
within Maine’s forest resources.
GHG is not just a Maine problem, but has far-reaching
implications throughout the NE and Canada.
How much cash are you willing to accept today, to store
carbon on the stump for the next 25 years, in lieu of a
future harvest?
Questions