The Medium Run 14.02 Notes March 17, 2014

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The Medium Run
14.02 Notes
1
March 17, 2014
1 These
slides are NOT a substitute for chapters 6 to 9 of the book. They are meant
to give you a more coincise and analytical presentation of the the Medium Run Model
but many aspects of the model that are discussed in the book are not in these slides,
and we shall assume you have read the book.
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The Short Run
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How bad is the assumption that prices don’t move? Not
too bad in the short run: 4 to 6 quarters.
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The Medium Run
Think about what happens when …rms respond to an increase in
demand by increasing production
Higher production will lead to higher employment
Higher employment will lead to lower unemployment
Lower unemployment will lead to higher wages
Higher wages will increase production costs, leading …rms to raise
prices
Higher prices will lead workers to ask for higher wages
Higher wages will lead to further increases in prices
and so on ...
So far we assumed P = 1
We now move away from this assumption
To understand how the sequqnce of events described above happens
we need to undertsand
I how the labor market works: employm
! unempl ! wages
I
how …rms set prices given production costs
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Population, Labor force, Employment and Unemployment
in the US (2010)
Population: 308.7 million
Non institutionalized civilian population: 237.8 million
I
Out of the labor force: 84.0 million
I
Civilian labor force: 153.8 million
F
F
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Employment: 139 million
Unemployed: 14.8 million
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Labor market ‡ows: measurement
The Current Population Survey (CPS), is a monthly sample survey of
approximately 60,000 households.
Each month, the CPS is administered to about 40.000 households that were
also in the survey during the previous month.
The other 20.000 consists of new households
The month-to-month overlap allows the Bureau of Labor Statistics to track
individuals who change labor force status from one month to the next
Figure is in the public domain courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Labor market ‡ows
Figure is in the public domain courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Labor market ‡ows
Figure is in the public domain courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Average monthly worker ‡ows, 1996-2003
Courtesy of Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, John Haltiwanger,
and the American Economic Association. Used with permission.
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Job creation and job destruction over the cycle
Courtesy of Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, John Haltiwanger,
and the American Economic Association. Used with permission.
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Hires, separations, quits and layo¤s over the cycle
Figure is in the public domain courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Labor force participation in a boom and in a recession
"Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Labor Force
Participation Rate; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis;
accessed September 9, 2014."
"Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate;
U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; http://research.stlouisfed.org; accessed September 9, 2014."
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How are wages and prices set
wage setting
W = P e F (u, z )
Let’s assume for the time being P e = P , so that dividing by P we get the real
wage W /P
W
= F (u, z ),
P
Fu  0, Fz  0
price setting: start from the production fct assuming only one factor, N and
constant returns to scale, so that marginal cost is W
Y =N
P = (1 + m )W
W
1
=
P
1+m
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Wages, prices and the "natural" rate of unemployment
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An increase in the generosity of unemployment bene…ts
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Higher competition (lower mark-ups) reduce the natural
rate of u
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Model 3: a macroeconomic model of the Medium Run
Aggregate supply (for given P e )
I
I
wage determination
W = P e F (u, z )
price determination
P = (1 + m )W
P = P e (1 + m )F (u, z )
Going from u to Y
u=
U
L N
=
=1
L
L
N
=1
L
Y
L
Price setting (for given P e )
P = P e (1 + m )F (1
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Y
, z)
L
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Model 3: a macroeconomic model of the Medium Run
Aggregate demand
M
= YL(i )
P
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14.02 Principles of Macroeconomics
Spring 2014
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