www.ucl.ac.uk/behaviour-change
@UCLBehaveChange
behaviourchange@ucl.ac.uk
Theories and Models of Behaviour Change:
How useful are they?
2 June 2014
Supported by
UCL Grand Challenge of Human Wellbeing
Questions to be addressed..
• What is the purpose of using a theory or model?
• What is a good theory or model?
• Which theories or models do you use?
Speakers
Prof Anthony Finkelstein
 Dean of the Faculty of Engineering Science
 Professor of Software Systems Engineering
Professor Kate Jeffery
 Director and Founder of the Institute of Behavioural Neuroscience
 Professor of Behavioural Neuroscience
Professor Robert West
 Professor of Health Psychology, Faculty of Population Sciences
 Director of Tobacco Studies, UCL
What makes for a good model/theory?
Prof. Kate Jeffery
Division of Psychology & Language Sciences
I use models to study models
How does the brain make an
internal model of the world?
To address this question, we make many models
Models can be
quite simple
Or they can be
quite complex
A (very simple) model of navigation
Start
Figure out
what you
want
Perceive
stimuli
associated
with
reward
Follow
stimulus
chain
Decide on
your goal
Work out
where
you are
Reach
goal
Compute
direction
to goal
This dual-system model of navigation explains many
aspects of spatial (and other) behaviour
In reality, any one of those little boxes looks like this
Or like this...
Can this model of navigation help understand
behaviour change more generally?
Knowledge-based
behaviour system
Initial state
End state
Stimulus-based
behaviour system
Behavioural models can get quite complex…
What is a model?
A model is a simplified simulation of reality
A model has some kind of isomorphism with
the real world
What is a model for?
A model enables the modeler to engage with reality
more adaptively
e.g. To make predictions and shape behaviour around
these predictions
Or to change reality itself to make it more beneficial
Key features of a model
Elements
Processes
Relationships
A model should be simpler than the thing it is modelling...
How do we know if a model is a good one?
When it makes, and continues to make,
testable, accurate predictions
Models and Theories of Behaviour
Change
Robert West
University College London
June 2014
Definitions
• A scientific model is a representation of a system
consisting of constructs and relationships between these
– Used to
• describe relevant characteristics of the system
• make predictions
• develop interventions
• A theory is a model that purports to explain a set of
phenomena
– Used to
• understand the phenomena
• guide observation
• develop interventions
Theory Quality Criteria
• Scope
– How far does the theory explain what it sets out to?
• Parsimony
– Does the theory have the minimum required number of
elements?
• Accuracy
– How well does the theory fit observable data?
• Clarity
– How easy is the theory to understand and apply?
• Evaluability
– To what extent can the propositions within the theory be
assessed for accuracy?
Examples of models of behaviour change
• Cigarette consumption price elasticity1
Δconsumption = 0.4 x Δprice
• First law of smoking cessation2
cessation rate = proportion trying to stop x success rate
1Chaloupka
2West
et al Tob Control 2002;11:i62-i72
et al Addiction (In press)
PRIME Theory (text)
www.primetheory.com
For a given level of opportunity and capability, changing responses (behaviour)
requires changing the balance between competing momentary impulses and
inhibitions
•
Impulses and inhibitions are influenced
–
–
•
–
–
•
Directly
• By stimuli operating on learned and
unlearned associations with
positive and negative emotions and
drives
Indirectly
• By evaluations
Evaluations are influenced
–
Directly
• by stimuli operating on learned
(habit) and unlearned (instinct)
associations
Indirectly
• by motives (wants and needs)
Motives are influenced
–
•
Directly
• By stimuli operating on perceptual,
memory and inference processes
• By wants and needs
Indirectly
• By plans
Plans are influenced
–
Directly
• By stimuli operating on perceptual,
memory and inference processes
• By evaluations
West & Brown (2013) Theory of Addiction. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell
PRIME Theory (graphic)
External and internal stimuli
Plans
Evaluations
Motives
Impulses/
Inhibitions
Responses
PRIME Theory (hypotheses)
www.primetheory.com
At every moment we act in pursuit of what we most want or need at that moment
Prior intentions and evaluations can only influence behaviour if they are
remembered and generate sufficiently strong motives (and thus impulses/inhibitions)
to overcome others operating at the time
Improving self-control requires improving the strength of plans and efficiency of
connections with lower level sub-systems and/or weakening other influences
PRIME Theory (application)
www.primetheory.com
• Predicting relapse during an attempt to stop smoking
• Relapse occurs when urge (impulse) exceeds resolve
(desire for restraint and efficiency of inhibition)
15
Arbitrary units
13
11
9
7
Urge
5
Resolve
3
1
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
Days
7
8
9
10
PRIME Theory (application)
www.primetheory.com
• Urge to smoke is proportional to
– Hypo-activity in the mesolimbic dopamine pathway
– Strength of association between smoking triggers and
impulse and motive to smoke
– Degree of exposure to smoking triggers
• Resolve is proportional to
– Negative feelings about smoking
– Positive feelings about not smoking
– Capacity to inhibit responding
PRIME Theory (application)
www.primetheory.com
• Translation to dynamic systems model with time varying
parameters and feedback loops
Timms, Rivera, West (In preparation)
Some key messages
• Models and theories can be useful at very different levels
of specificity
• Choosing an appropriate behaviour change model for
intervention design depends on the levers of change one
is able to pull and therefore the relevant constructs
• Models and theories can be useful even when they are
imprecise as long as they are evaluable
• It is worth searching for precision
www.ucl.ac.uk/behaviour-change
@UCLBehaveChange
behaviourchange@ucl.ac.uk
Upcoming events:
20 June - 3 July 2014
Workshops and events as part of UCL’s
Festival for Digital Health
www.fdh.ucl.ac.uk
4 - 8 August 2014
One week Summer School:
Behaviour Change – Principles and Practice
www.ucl.ac.uk/behaviour-change
www.ucl.ac.uk/behaviour-change
@UCLBehaveChange
behaviourchange@ucl.ac.uk
Book launch:
‘ABC of Behaviour Change Theories’
By Susan Michie, Robert West, Rona
Campbell, Jamie Brown, Heather Gainforth
Available at: www.behaviourchangetheories.com