Recent Delay Trends
Ken Wright
September 6, 2007
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Hour-long Schedule Delays Up in
Summer 2007
Percent of Flights Arriving More than 1 Hour Late (ASPM)
7%
6%
6.4%
5.7%
5.3%
5.2%
4.9%
5%
4.0%
3.7%
4%
2.9%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: ASPM, June-August
2005
2006
2007
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Airport Ops
% change
from 2000
0%
Average daily operations (thousands)
-10%
-20%
56
2000
54
52
50
48
2006
46
2007
44
42
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Weekly average, OPSNET (45 airports)
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Change in Operations by Major Airport
Summer 2007 vs. Summer 2000
SEA
-22%
PDX
-17%
DTW
-19%
MSP
-17%
ORD
+2%
SLC
+16%
LAS
+29%
SFO
-11%
LAX
-12%
SAN
+18%
CLE
-27%
STL
-47%
Source: OPSNET, Weekdays
EWR
-4%
JFK
+25%
LGA
+6%
PHL
+3%
ATL
+14
DFW
-22%
IAH
+21%
DCA
-20%
CVG
-30%
MEM
-9%
PHX
-18%
BWI
-7%
IAD
-16%
MDW
-3%
DEN
+17%
BOS
-21%
TPA
-10%
MCO
+3%
FLL
+4%
MIA
-25%
Overall Change = -8%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Change in Operations by Major Airport
Summer 2007 vs. Summer 2006
SEA
0%
PDX
+2%
DTW
-4%
MSP
-5%
SLC
+1%
LAS
-1%
SFO
+5%
LAX
+4%
SAN
+5%
IAD
-2%
MDW
0%
DEN
-4%
STL
-10%
Source: OPSNET, Weekdays
JFK
+15%
LGA
-3%
PHL
-4%
ATL
+3%
DFW
-3%
IAH
-3%
EWR
-4%
DCA
0%
CVG
-5%
MEM
-3%
PHX
-3%
BWI
-4%
CLE
-2%
ORD
-5%
BOS
-4%
TPA
+2%
MCO
+6%
FLL
+7%
MIA
+1%
Overall Change = -1%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Schedule Growth Shifts Delays to Busy Hubs
Seven airports accounted for 55% of delays in 2000.
These 7 account for 72% of delays in 2007.
38 apts
ATL, ORD, EWR, LGA, JFK, PHL, IAH
Delays (OPSNET)
Operations
120
4.5
4.0
100
3.5
80
Thousands
Millions
3.0
2.5
2.0
60
40
1.5
1.0
20
0.5
0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Down 14% Compared to 2000
June-August
2007
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Up 10% Compared to 2000
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
OPSNET, June-August
Operations (Millions)
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Change 2000 to 2007
38 apts
3.87
3.80
3.51
3.39
3.52
3.54
3.35
3.33
-13.9%
ATL, ORD, EWR, LGA,
JFK, PHL, IAH
1.02
1.05
0.99
0.99
1.06
1.11
1.12
1.12
9.7%
45 Airports
4.89
4.85
4.50
4.38
4.58
4.65
4.47
4.45
-8%
Delays (Thousands)
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Change 2000 to 2006
38 apts
57
55
40
32
43
38
35
42
-27%
ATL, ORD, EWR, LGA,
JFK, PHL, IAH
78
70
51
60
94
106
99
108
39%
45 Airports
137
127
93
94
138
147
137
152
11%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Increased Use of Regional Jets
Scheduled Departures by Equipment Type (285 Airports)
Average Daily Departures (thousands)
25
20
Large Jet
15
Jun '05 vs Jun '00
Regional Jet
10
Turboprop
Large jet
RJ
17%
178%
Turboprop
54%
5
Source: OAG
Jan-07
Jul-06
Oct-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Jan-04
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
0
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Average Number of Seats per Departure
has Decreased
Average number of seats per scheduled departure
down in July 2005 compared to July 2000
160
Average Seats per Departure
140
-10%
-17%
-19%
120
-16%
-15%
-8%
100
Jul-00
-1%
Jul-05
80
60
40
20
0
ATL
Source: OAG
EWR
IAD
IAH
LGA
ORD
PHL
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Average Daily OPSNET Delays
Average Daily OPSNET Delays
2,500
2,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,500
1,000
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
All Facilities
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
OPSNET Delays (thousands), January - June
New York
Chicago
Texas
Atlanta
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York OPSNET Delays
New York OPSNET Delays, January - June
120
OPSNET Delays (Thousands)
100
20
80
12
60
15
21
1
40
20
0
11
4
9
1
17
12
7
ZNY
N90
LGA
JFK
EWR
17
4
14
16
2004
2005
24
28
2006
2007
0
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York Arrival Delays
Percent of Flights Arriving More than One Hour Late
18%
16%
14%
12%
EWR
JFK
LGA
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
0%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York Departure Delays
Percent of Flights Departing More than One Hour Late
30%
25%
20%
EWR
JFK
LGA
15%
10%
5%
Source: ASPM
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
0%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Daily Minutes of Airborne Holding
Daily Holding Minutes
2000
1800
1400
1200
EWR
JFK
LGA
1000
800
600
400
200
Source: CAASD ETMS
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
0
Jan-03
Holding Minutes per Day
1600
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York: Change in Operations from 2004
(January-June)
JFK
EWR
LGA
TEB
HPN
Total
2005
14%
0%
1%
-2%
-1%
3%
2006
16%
2%
1%
-11%
-2%
2%
2007
44%
1%
-1%
-9%
4%
8%
Source: OPSNET
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Capacity has Fallen at EWR
EWR: Average Hourly Operations, 8 AM - 8 PM, Weekdays (ASPM)
80
Scheduled
78
74
72
70
68
66
Actual
64
62
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
60
Jan-04
Operations per Hour
76
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
EWR Now Rarely Delivers More Than 85
Flights Per Hour
EWR Actual Throughput, 8 AM - 8 PM, Weekdays
25%
Hourly
Throughput
20%
105+
100-104
95-99
90-94
85-89
15%
10%
5%
Source: ASPM
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
0%
Jan-04
Percent of Hours at Throughput Level
30%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Capacity has Fallen at LGA
LGA: Average Hourly Operations, 8 AM - 8 PM (ASPM)
78
Scheduled
76
72
70
68
66
Actual
64
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
62
Jan-04
Operations per Hour
74
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Decrease in LGA Peak Throughput
LGA Actual Throughput, 8 AM - 8 PM, Weekdays
50%
40%
Hourly
Throughput
35%
90+
87-89
84-86
81-83
78-80
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Source: ASPM
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
0%
Jan-04
Percent of Hours at Throughput Level
45%
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Delays Grow Rapidly as Capacity
Decreases
Simulated Minutes of Delay Using Feb 15, 2007 Schedule
Minutes of Arrival Delay (Simulated)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
EWR
LGA
6,000
4,000
2,000
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Arrival Capacity (AAR)
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Simulation Results for JFK
Ken Wright
20 July 2007
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Delays Departure
JFK: Thursday, Jul 19, 2007
240
389
% Ops delayed = 33%
Arrival
TMS
28
119
Average delay = 71 minutes
CW
GS
GDP
Fog/ Low Ceilings
30
Actual
Arr_Ct
ActualAAR
AARon
onJuly
July19
19
was
32/hour
was 32/hour
OAG_Arr
Arr_Rate
20
10
0
10
20
OAG_Dep
Dep_Ct
Diversions (12)
3 AM
2 AM
1 AM
12 AM
11 PM
10 PM
9 PM
8 PM
7 PM
6 PM
5 PM
4 PM
3 PM
2 PM
1 PM
12 PM
11 AM
10 AM
9 AM
8 AM
7 AM
6 AM
5 AM
4 AM
3 AM
30
10
0
40
Airborne_Holding
20
0
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation
JFK Hourly Scheduled Arrivals
JFK Scheduled Arrivals (OAG)
70
60
635 Arrivals
554 Arrivals
50
6/20/2007
11/15/2006
6/14/2006
40
30
20
10
492 Arrivals
11:00 PM
10:00 PM
9:00 PM
8:00 PM
7:00 PM
6:00 PM
5:00 PM
4:00 PM
3:00 PM
2:00 PM
1:00 PM
12:00 PM
11:00 AM
10:00 AM
9:00 AM
8:00 AM
7:00 AM
0
6:00 AM
7/19/07
AAR = 32
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
JFK Simulated Minutes of Arrival Delay
on a Bad-Weather Day
Minutes of Arrival Delay (Simulated)
Schedule Date
JFK: Simulated Minutes of Arrival Delay with AAR = 32
16,000
6/20/2007
14,000
12,000
4/18/2007
10,000
8,000
6,000
11/15/2006
4,000
2,000
6/14/2006
450
500
550
600
650
Number of Scheduled Arrivals
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Optional: Convective Weather
June-August 2007
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
New York Weather Thunderstorms
Hours Having Level 3+ Thunderstorms at EWR, LGA or JFK
80
70
Number of Hours
60
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
50
40
30
20
10
0
June
Source: MITRE NCWD
July
August
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Convective Weather Comparison
June 2006 & 2007
Brown areas had more storms in 2007; Blue areas had fewer
Source: MITRE NCWD
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Convective Weather Comparison
July 2006 & 2007
Brown areas had more storms in 2007; Blue areas had fewer
Source: MITRE NCWD
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Brown areas had more storms in 2007; Blue areas had fewer
Source: MITRE NCWD
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
Brown areas had more storms in 2007; Blue areas had fewer
Source: MITRE NCWD
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012
August
August1-28,
1-28,2006
2006&&2007
2007Only
Only
© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
F065-B07-012