Feedback Models of System Transition MIT ICAT
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MIT ICAT Feedback Models of System Transition Prof. R. John Hansman (in collaboration with, Aleksandra Mozdzanowska, Prof Annalisa Weigel, and Dr. Karen Marais) MIT International Center for Air Transportation rjhans@mit.edu MIT ICAT • National Air Transportation System (NAS) Example of a complex adaptive system evolved over 70 years MIT ICAT Global Air Transportation System (GAS) Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz MIT ICAT Global Air Transportation System (GAS) •Multiple Interacting Subsystems •Regional and Global Evolution Dynamics, Phasing, Harmonization Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz MIT ICAT Simple Feedback Model of System Adaptation Disturbances Performance # Operations Throughput RPM, RTM Flight Hours # Airports Demand Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Safety & Capacity Drivers System Capability Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions • Elements Technologies Procedures Policies Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop • Time Constants (long) Awareness Change Process Implementation MIT ICAT • • Transition Barriers 24/7 Operating System Competing Stakeholder Objectives Reversion to the “Status Quo” Labor Concerns • Safety Considerations • • Off Nominal Conditions Drive System Acceptability Certification Human-Automation Trades Safety Veto Technical Maturity (TRL X) Equipage Critical Mass • Resource Limitations Operating vs Modernization Investments Competing National Objectives MIT ICAT Predictive, Reactive, Catalytic Transitions Safety vs Capacity Drivers Disturbances Demand Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Precipitating Change Event or Condition Transformative Actions Media Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness MIT ICAT • Event Driven Transitions Safety Transition Examples Grand Canyon (1955) > Positive Radar Control Los Cerritos (1986) > TCAS Source: Boeing Statistical Abstract MIT ICAT Capacity Driven Transitions eg LGA 2000 Increasing System Capacity vs Demand Management MIT ICAT • Demand Management Demand Management Fast Implementation • 2001 Delays > LGA Demand Management • 2004 Delays > ORD Demand Management Demand Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Precipitating Event or Condition Transformative Actions Media Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness Role of Research and Development to Provide Capability Options MIT ICAT Demand Management Demand Performance Precipitating Event or Condition Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Capability Options Technologies Infrastructure Procedures Roles & Respons. Policies Transformative Actions Research and Development Media Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness MIT ICAT Role of Transformative System Concepts Demand Demand Management Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Transformative Actions Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Road Map Research and Development Media Stakeholder Awarness Capabilities Innovation Precipitating Event or Condition System Concepts Research Needs Public Awareness Role of Transformative System Concepts MIT ICAT Stepwise Transitions and Configuration Control Demand Demand Management Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Transformative Actions Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Road Map Research and Development Media Stakeholder Awarness Capabilities Innovation Precipitating Event or Condition System Concepts Research Needs Public Awareness MIT ICAT • • Transition Barriers 24/7 Operating System Competing Stakeholder Objectives Reversion to the “Status Quo” Labor Concerns • Safety Considerations • • Off Nominal Conditions Drive System Acceptability Certification Human-Automation Trades Safety Veto Technical Maturity (TRL X) Equipage Critical Mass • Resource Limitations Operating vs Modernization Investments Competing National Objectives MIT ICAT Multi-Stakeholder Considerations Demand Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Stakeholder Values Vi Stakeholder Objectives Oi Stakeholder Stakeholder Stakeholder Decisions Stakeholder i Decisions Decisions Optimization Transformative Actions Road Map Capabilities Research and Development System Concepts Research Needs Monitoring & Forecasting Stakeholder Awareness or Perception Ai MIT ICAT • Value Distribution How are costs and benefits distributed between stakeholders? stk1 stk2 stkn stk1 b1(t) c1(t) b2(t) c2(t) bm(t) cm(t) Benefits stk2 stkn Costs Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) “ Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation” MIT ICAT Time-phased Value Distribution Costs and Benefits Reduce the gap Σci(t) Σbi(t) time Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) “ Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation” MIT ICAT Critical Mass for User Equipage Benefits Service Provider User Equipped A/C (%) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) “ Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation” Punitive Measures Mandates Positive Incentives Incentivization or Leveraging Approaches Technology Value MIT ICAT Infrastructure and Technology Development Support Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) “ Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation” Early Benefit Incentivization MIT ICAT User Benefits eg Airspace Access, RVSM Equipped A/C (%) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) “ Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation” MIT ICAT Resource Issues System Maintenance and Operation Demand Performance System Capability Available Resources Monitoring & Prediction Implementation System Improvement Competing National Concerns Selected Actions Capability Development Awareness Change Process Capabilities Research and Development Aviation community responsible for adaptive change. We must also anticipate catalytic events and be prepared when the public awareness force transformative change. MIT ICAT Demand Demand Management Performance Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Implementation Change Process Corrective Actions Selected Actions Transformative Actions Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Road Map Research and Development Media Stakeholder Awarness Capabilities Innovation Precipitating Event or Condition System Concepts Research Needs Public Awareness MIT ICAT Must collaborate and consider the Global Air Transportation System in System Transitions Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz