A Preliminary Design Process
for Airspace Systems
Initial Assessment - Chicago Case Study
(VNTSC-DTS20-PDP-001)
NEXTOR
November 14, 2000
Bob Schwab, Technical Fellow
Boeing Air Traffic Management Services
ATM_Overview 1
NAS Architecture Evolution
Strategic Goals
FAA
ATM 2000+
Options for the NAS
¥ NAS Growth & Constraints
Phase 3
Phase 2
¥ NAS Safety Enhancement
¥ NAS Affordability
Sustaining the NAS
¥ NAS Sustaining
¥ Funding Profiles
¥ Limited User Benefits
¥ Risk Management
ICAO
¥ Far Term (2008-2020)
¥ Concept Architecture
¥ Technology Exploration
¥ Emerging Technologies
¥ Alternative Futures
¥ Globalization
Modernizing the NAS
¥ NAS Performance
NASA
Goals
¥ Mid Term (2003-2007)
¥ Modernization Architecture
¥ New Functionality
Phase 1
¥ Near Term (2000-2002)
¥ Sustaining Architecture
¥ Committed Deployment
Today s Installed
Base
ATM_Overview 2
System Methods and Analysis Tools are Required
INPUTS
Policy Goals
per Specific
Time Horizon
OUTPUTS
Discover Airspace
System Requirements,
Objectives,Constraints
Validated NAS
Requirements
and Objectives
Specification of
Concept of Operation
and Documented
Selection Rationale
Generate
Operational Concept
adjust for infeasible concepts
Recommended
Implementation
Architecture and
Documented Rationale
Evaluate
Implementation
Technologies
adjust for infeasible implementations
Create
Transition Plan
Recommended
Transition Plan
adjust for infeasible transition path
PROPOSED
ARCHITECTURE
Methods
Tools
Methods
Tools
Methods
Methods
Tools
Tools
ATM_Overview 3
An Architecture is Required for an Integrated
Modeling, Simulation and Analysis Capability
Demand Analysis
NAS Operational
Scenarios
NAS
Environment Model
Operations
Concepts
NAS
Service, Mode, Agent
Behavioral Models
Level I
Regional
Environmental
Scenarios
[Policy]
Regional
Service, Mode,Agent
Behavioral Models
Analysis Interfaces
¥ Safety
¥ Reliability
¥ Environmental
Abstract Traffic
Flow Models
Resources
Characteristics Models
Solutions
Static analyses
Dynamic simulation
Costs/Benefits Extraction
Level II
Regional
Operational
Scenarios
Evaluation of Alternatives
¥ Costs/Benefits/Safety
[National]
Static analyses
Dynamic simulation
High-Fidelity
Traffic Flow
Models
Parametric
Performance
Models
Level III
Analysis Interfaces
¥ Safety
¥ Reliability
¥ Environmental
Costs/Benefits
Extraction
[Regional]
Infrastructure Resources Performance Modeling/Analysis
Level IV
Human Agent Performance and Cognitive Modeling/Analysis
Level V
Integration Function
+ Database
+ Configuration Management
ATM_Overview 4
Case Study Approach
¥ A Preliminary Design Process has been drafted
—process needs to be validated
—baselining and solution development must be grounded in
real NAS performance needs
—Case Study approach using several NAS operating regions
to provide operational insight and real-world validation
data
¥ Chicago is the initial Case Study airport/airspace region
—some operational issues are specific, others are common to
high-density complex terminal areas
¥ Additional Case Study regions to address overall NAS
performance
—comprehensive concept and technology exploration
—sufficient scope to develop toolset requirements for NASwide trades
ATM_Overview 5
Preliminary Design Process, Phase 1
Project sponsored by the NASA AATT program, Shahab
Hasan
Project team:
—Boeing Commercial Airplane Group (Aslaug Haraldsdottir,
Bob Schwab)
—Volpe Transportation Center (Dick Wright, Suzanne Chen,
Bob Wisemann)
—Logistics Management Institute (Pete Kostiuk)
—Flight Transportation Associates (Bob Simpson)
—NEXTOR (John Hansman)
—FAA Coordinator Air Traffic Airspace Management
(Bruce Ware)
ATM_Overview 6
Airline Schedule Models under Capacity Constraints
¥ Accommodate growth by increasing fares and rationing demand in the face
of scarce capacity
¥ Establish new hub airports to mitigate congestion at existing hubs
¥ Increase direct service to avoid congested hubs and gateways
¥ Move flights to off-peak times
¥ Increase nighttime operations
¥ Employ larger aircraft equipment, as opposed to growth in frequency
¥ Combination of five active strategies
ATM_Overview 7
Primary Operational Issues Identified
1. Slot control and insufficient gate capacity
—when slot control is lifted, gates will immediately limit growth
2. O Hare airfield complexity and configuration management
—wind changes
—traffic demand
—runway condition and intersecting runways
—noise mitigation
3. Land And Hold Short Operations (LAHSO)
—maximum throughput is reduced 10% by new rules
—further impact of turbojet growth
ATM_Overview 8
Primary Operational Issues, continued
4. Regional flow management
—Historically Validated Restrictions (miles-in-trail)
—Swap Routes
—Ground Stops, by phone TMU to TMU
—coordination with Central Flow
5. En route capacity
—growth in turbojets
—National Routes Program
—MIT restrictions in overhead streams to East coast
6. Congestion at arrival fixes
—unbalanced arrival demand, runway utilization issue
—high-altitude tailwinds, MIT up to 12 nm
ATM_Overview 9
Primary Operational Issues, continued
7. Sever weather impact
—weather forecasting accuracy
—pilot/airline unpredictable reluctance to fly through storm
cells
8. Growth at nearby airports
—Midway, airport construction, rapid growth
—cargo operations during night
9. Final approach spacing
—VFR, runway occupancy
—IFR, wake vortex rules
10. Capacity of surrounding facilities
—Cleveland Center, complexity and controller workload
—MIT restrictions daily to East coast cities
ATM_Overview 10
¥ Departure Insertion
En Route
¥ Ground Stops
¥
¥
¥
¥
MIT Restrictions
Convective Weather
Regional Jets
NRP Complexity
TMA Arrival/
Departure
¥
¥
¥
¥
¥ SWAP routes
¥ HVR s
¥ Forecasting Accuracy
Chicago Airside
Capacity
Factors
Planning
¥
¥
¥
¥
¥
¥
¥ Number of Gates
¥ Configuration Changes
¥ Low Visibility Taxi
Airport
Surface
Taxiway
Gate
Apron
Convective Weather
Airport/SUA Interactions
High Altitude Wind Shear
Regional Jets
Approach
Transition
¥ LAHSO issues
¥ Taxi Ops with Late Bank
¥ Corner Post Traffic Imbalance
¥ Configuration Changes
Wet Runways
¥
Wake Vortex Spacing
¥
Runway Occupancy
¥
Final Approach Speed Variability ¥
Final Approach Length
Convective Weather
Final Approach/
Initial Departure
Final
Approach
Missed Approaches
Midway Interaction
Final Approach Length
Radar Outages
Initial
Departure
Complex, Inter-Acting Constraints Dynamically Change Airport and Airspace Capacities
Source: NASA Sponsored Airspace Preliminary Design Case Study
Runway Capacity Coverage Curve - Chicago O’Hare ( based on LMI Report - NASA CR-19928-207
Landing
Capacity
(a/c per hour)
Non-visual Wx.
Conditions
(>700ft. > 2nm)
Visual Weather Conditions VMC-1 (ceiling>4500 ft., visibility> 7nm), VMC-2 (>1000 ft., >2nm.)
VMC-1
140
VMC-2
Plan
Weird
Triple 27
Plan B -Triple
27
Approaches
from
NW, NE
120
AAR-Triples
(Airport Acceptance Rate declared
for triple approaches)
Plan B
Triple
22
1
AAR-Dual
(Acceptance Rate
Dual Approach)
VMC-1
1
100
VMC-1
VMC-2
Parallel 27s
Triple 32L
Approaches
from E, SE
80
VMC-2
Plan XTriple
Approach
from W, SW
(09L, 09R,
04R)
60
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Coverage - % availability in the average year
70
80
90
100
Sample Statistical Analysis
Total Delay Time as Function of Weather and Volume
300
M
i 200
n
u
t 100
e
s
0
100
80 60
40 20
No. of Depeartures
0
0
100120
80
60
20 40
No. of Arrivals
Perfect weather
Bad weather
Source: Volpe Transportation Research Center
ATM_Overview 13
Initial ETMS Capacity Data Characterizations
⟨ Cloud ceiling is a more important factor for arrival delay than for departure
delay.
⟨ The above set of six independent factors can explain approximately one third
of the variations in total delay time per flight. These selected set of weather
and volume related factors could only explain approximately 17% of gate
delay and 22% of arrival delay.
⟨ The stepwise regression model technique, when informed by a wellconsidered hypothesis, is an efficient way to understand the sensitivity of
delay to other factors such as equipment outage, runway usage, and airspace
congestion. Further analysis could be carried out.
Source: Volpe Transportation Research Center
ATM_Overview 14
Operational Baseline Development Approach
Operational
Assessment
Constraints
Identification
Airspace &
Procedures
Hypothesized
States
Validated
States
Operational
State Models
Validated
Operational B/L
Capacity
Constraining
Resources
Resource Normal,
Rare Normal,
Non-Normal States
Field Data
Collection
Frequency
Capacity Level
Traffic Demand
& Delay Level
Calibration
Annual Demand
& Total Delay
ATM_Overview 15
Case Study Conclusions
¥ A Preliminary Design Process has been drafted
—process needs to be validated
—baselining and solution development must be grounded in
real NAS performance needs
—Case Study approach using several NAS operating regions
to provide operational insight and real-world validation
data
¥ Chicago is the initial Case Study airport/airspace region
—some operational issues are specific, others are common to
high-density complex terminal areas
¥ Additional Case Study regions to address overall NAS
performance
—comprehensive concept and technology exploration
—sufficient scope to develop toolset requirements for NASwide trades
ATM_Overview 16