Election 2014: Its Impact on
Federal Policy-Making in 2015
Slade Gorton, Bart Gordon, Jim Walsh,
Manny Rouvelas and Rick Valentine
© Copyright 2014 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.
Former Senator
Slade Gorton (R-WA)
Former Rep.
Bart Gordon (D-TN)
Former Rep.
Jim Walsh (R-NY)
Manny Rouvelas
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BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
Map from Real Clear Politics – as of November 3, 2014
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The 16 Most Competitive Senate Races
Montana
West Virginia
South Dakota
Arkansas
Louisiana
Colorado
Curtis (D)
Tennant (D)
Weiland (D)
Pryor (D)
Landrieu (D)
Udall (D)
Daines (R)
Capito (R)
Rounds (R)
Cotton (R)
Cassidy (R)
Gardner (R)
Daines +18.0%*
Capito +16.6%*
Rounds +12.2%*
Cotton +7.1%*
Cassidy +4.6%*
Gardner +3.9%*
Romney 55.3%
Romney 62.3%
Romney 57.9%
Romney 60.5%
Romney 57.8%
Obama 51.2%
Alaska
Begich (D)
Sullivan (R)
Sullivan +2.4%*
Romney 55.3%
Iowa
Kansas
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Georgia
Kentucky
Minnesota
Virginia
Michigan
Braley (D)
Orman (I)
Shaheen (D)
Hagan (D)
Nunn (D)
Grimes (D)
Franken (D)
Warner (D)
Peters (D)
Ernst (R)
Roberts (R)
Brown (R)
Tillis (R)
Perdue (R)
McConnell (R)
McFadden (R)
Gillespie (R)
Land (R)
Ernst +1.8%*
Orman +0.7%**
Shaheen +.9%
Hagan +1.1%
Perdue +2.2%
McConnell +6.5%
Franken +9.5%
Warner +9.7%
Peters +12.4%
Obama 52.1%
Romney 60.0%
Obama 52.2%
Romney 50.6%
Romney 53.4%
Romney 60.5%
Obama 52.8%
Obama 50.8%
Obama 54.3%
*Republican gain of a seat now held by a Democrat (8)
**Orman has said that he will join the conference of the majority party
Polling numbers are based on the Real Clear Politics averages – as of November 3, 2014
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Lame Duck Session:
Projected Agenda if Republicans Win the
Senate
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Continuing Resolution for Appropriations until Spring
Extension of Expired/Expiring Tax Provisions
National Defense Authorization Act
ISIS Use of Force
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) Reauthorization
Confirmation of New Attorney General
Confirmation of other Nominees to Executive Branch
Positions
 Confirmation of Judicial Nominees
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Projected Agenda for the 114th Congress
(Under Republican Control of Senate)
1. Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) Amendments
2. Tax Reform
3. Budget Resolution
4. Patent Reform
5. Entitlement (Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security) Reform
6. Trade Promotion Authority
7. Keystone XL Pipeline
8. Dodd-Frank Amendments
9. Greenhouse Gases Regulation Reform
10. Oversight of Obama Administration
11. Highway Bill
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Projected Senate Committee Chairmen for 114th Congress
Committee
Agriculture, Nutrition, and
Forestry
Appropriations
Armed Services
Banking
Budget
Commerce
Energy
Environment and Public
Works
Finance
Foreign Relations
Health, Education, Labor
and Pensions
Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs
Judiciary
Rules and Administration
Small Business and
Entrepreneurship
Veterans’ Affairs
Indian Affairs
Intelligence
Aging
Ethics
Republican Chair/
Ranking Member
Democratic Chair/
Ranking Member
Senator Pat Roberts
Senator Debbie Stabenow
Senator Thad Cochran
Senator John McCain
Senator Richard Shelby
Senator Mike Enzi
Senator John Thune
Senator Lisa Murkowski
Senator Barbara Mikulski
Senator Jack Reed
Senator Chuck Schumer
Senator Bernie Sanders
Senator Bill Nelson
Senator Mary Landrieu
Senator Jim Inhofe
Senator Barbara Boxer
Senator Orrin Hatch
Senator Bob Corker
Senator Ron Wyden
Senator Bob Menendez
Senator Lamar Alexander
Senator Patty Murray
Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Tom Carper
Senator Charles Grassley
Senator Roy Blunt
Senator Pat Leahy
Senator Mark Pryor
Senator Jim Risch
Senator Maria Cantwell
Senator Johnny Isakson
Senator John Barrasso
Senator Richard Burr
Senator Susan Collins
NOTE: All Current GOP
Members Ineligible; to be
appointed by Leader
Senator Sherrod Brown
Senator Jon Tester
Senator Diane Feinstein
Senator Bob Casey
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Senator Barbara Boxer
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Democratic Congressional Leadership
Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)
Majority Whip
Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Democratic Policy Committee
Chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Leader
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip
Steny Hoyer (D-MD)
Assistant Democratic Leader
Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
Democratic Caucus Chair
Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
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Projected House Committee Ranking Member
Changes in the 114th Congress
 Education and the Workforce
 Bobby Scott
 Energy & Commerce
 Anna Eshoo/Frank Pallone
 Veterans’ Affairs
 Corrine Brown
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Potential Republican Pick Ups
Member/District
Rating
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ-1)
Leans Republican
Ami Bera (D-CA-7)
Leans Republican
Joe Garcia (D-FL-26)
Leans Republican
Bill Enyart (D-IL-12)
Leans Republican
Brad Schneider (D-IL-10)
Leans Republican
Rick Nolan (D-MN-8)
Leans Republican
Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1)
Leans Republican
John F. Tierney (D-MA-6) open
Leans Democrat
Tim Bishop (D-NY-1)
Leans Republican
Bill Owens (D-NY-21) retiring
Likely Republican
Dan Maffei (D-NY-24)
Leans Democrat
Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) retiring
Likely Republican
Jim Matheson (D-UT-4) retiring
Likely Republican
Based on Sabato's Crystal Ball as of October 30, 2014
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Projected House Committee Chairmanship
Changes in the 114th Congress
Committee
Projected Chairman
Agriculture
Michael Conaway
Armed Services
Budget
Education
Natural Resources
Mac Thornberry
Tom Price
Virginia Foxx
Rob Bishop
John Mica/Jim Jordan/
Oversight
Michael Turner/Jason Chaffetz
Ways and Means
Paul Ryan
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Electoral Volatility
2000
Change – White House
2006
Change – House & Senate
2008
Change – White House
2010
Change – House
2014
???
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FEAR
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The K&L Gates Approach
 Prompt adjustments based on election results
 Bipartisan, multi-branch, full policy lifecycle
 Substantive expertise and sophisticated advocacy
skills
 Quality communications
 Direct and indirect outreach
 Continuous engagement
“If you’re not at the table,
you’re on the menu.”
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Questions?
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