Market/Economic Analysis
Of the
North Tryon/Sugar Creek
Area
January 2003
Prepared for:
Neighborhood Development Department
Employment and Business Services Division-Business District Revitalization Team
City of Charlotte
Prepared by:
ANITA KRAMER & ASSOCIATES
2800 Woodley Road, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20008
(202) 667-2931
In association with:
Land Matters
Charlotte, North Carolina
Neighboring Concepts
Charlotte, North Carolina
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
XI.
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………..……………..1
EXECTUIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES..……………….4
PROFILE OF HOUSING MARKET………………………………….….……………19
A.
Definition of Comparable Housing Market
B.
Housing Activity Since 1992
1.
Overview
2.
Currently/recently active single-family home developments
3.
Currently/recently active condominium and townhome developments
4.
Apartments
5.
Proposed Residential Projects
C.
Projections
D.
Recommendations
DEFINITIONS FOR RETAIL ANALYSIS………………………….………………..27
PROFILE OF BUSINESS INVENTORY …………………………………………….32
A.
Types and Locations of Businesses
B.
Old Tryon Mall Site
C.
Types of Retail and Service Businesses
D.
Level of Retail Service
INTERVIEWS WITH RETAIL BUSINESSES………………………………………39
A.
Profile of Businesses Interviewed
B.
Geographic Source of Customers
C.
Businesses Changes Over the Last Three Years
D.
Positive Points of Current Business Location
E.
Negative Points of Current Business Location
F.
Recommendations for Change
VISUAL AND PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT………………………………………40
ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORTATION/ACCESS………………………………..47
INTERVIEWS WITH SHOPPERS…………………………………………………..49
B.
Profile of Persons Interviewed
C.
Shopping Patterns of Persons Interviewed
D.
Positive Points of Shopping in Study Area
E.
Negative Points of Shopping in Study Area
F.
Recommendations for Change
RETAIL MARKET AREA DELINEATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS……………55
A.
Delineation of Geographic Area of Analysis
B.
Demographics
ANALYSIS OF MARKET AREA DEMAND FOR
RETAIL GOODS AND SERVICES………………………………………………...59
A.
Total Market Area Retail Sales Demand;
B.
Demand by Retail Category;
C.
Capture Rate of Market Area Retail Demand by Study Area Establishments
(including North Park Plaza and North Pointe Mall);
D.
E.
XII.
Distribution of Demand to Various Types of Retail Centers;
Sales per Square Foot to Convert Potential Retail Sales Volumes into Net
Supportable Retail Space;
F.
Supportable Services Space;
G.
Supportable Retail Space by Type of Retail Center;
H.
Compare to Existing Space
I.
Recommendations.
ANALYSIS OF ASIAN MARKET DEMAND FOR
RETAIL GOODS AND SERVICES………………………………………………65
A.
Demographics of Asian Market
B.
Location, Amount, and Type of Asian-Oriented Businesses
C.
Demand Generated by the Asian Market
D.
Comparison to Existing Space and Recommendations
Appendix
I.
INTRODUCTION
The North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area extends along North Tryon from Craighead to Eastway
and along Sugar Creek from the frontage parcels on the north side of North Tryon south to the
railroad tracks (see the following map). It is well known for the regional shopping center that
once thrived at the intersection of the two major streets. Most of the structures of the former
regional shopping center appear dated and, along with the parking lots, are poorly maintained
and under multiple ownership. Combined with a high vacancy rate and industrial, as well as,
commercial uses, this central site is underutilized, inconsistent and visually unattractive. Within
this site, the façade of one portion of the main building has been updated and the building’s
tenants are oriented to the Asian market. Still, there is a high vacancy rate in this portion, as well
as a large amount of poorly performing interior space
Demographic changes in the larger region over the last two decades contributed to this decline.
The impact of the lack of population growth in the nearby areas for the past two decades has
been exacerbated by the exceptionally strong growth elsewhere east of I-77.
The study area is also known for the industrial activity on the west side of Sugar Creek,
particularly two large cement companies that generate truck traffic and a strong image of heavy
industry. The cement company directly across from the old regional shopping center began
operation in 1997, moving the area even further from a recognized commercial node.
Areas outside these two main areas are a mix of older and newer, but all mostly small,
commercial and industrial buildings. The exceptions are larger, older industrial buildings located
between Raleigh Street and the railroad, and larger, newer buildings located along Dorton Street.
The City’s primary goal for this area is a strategy for promoting public and private investment in
specifically identified revitalization opportunities. To this end, the City contracted with Anita
Kramer & Associates to undertake a market analysis to serve as the base of understanding from
which a plan of action can be developed.
The specific tasks completed by the consultants during the course of the market analysis are as
follows:
o
o
o
o
o
o
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o
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inventory and profile of recent residential development
analysis of market demand for housing by type of product
inventory and profile of existing businesses
analysis of interviews with retail and service businesses
assessment of the visual and physical environment
assessment of transportation/access
analysis of interviews with shoppers
delineation of retail market area and demographics
analysis of market area demand for retail goods and services
analysis of Asian market demand for retail goods and services
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The Executive Summary/Recommended Strategies (Section II) provides an overview of the
findings and presents the recommendations for public and private strategies. Details of the
supporting findings are found in subsequent sections (Sections III through XII).
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Lanbeth
Burroughs
Wellingrford
Sugar Creek
Craighead
North Tryon
Dorton
Eastway
Greensboro
Raleigh
Raleigh
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II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
Analysis of the housing market determined that the study area and nearby areas are most
effectively energized through increasing the supply of for-sale housing and that there is currently
sufficient demand to support such new housing units:
•
Demand for for-sale housing in and near the study area is currently strongest for singlefamily detached homes, rather than for townhomes and condominiums.
•
Total absorption in the market area is projected at 30 to 40 a quarter, or 120 to 160 a year.
Absorption at one project is projected at 10 to 20 a quarter, or 40 to 80 a year, if
appropriately priced. Target prices in and near the study area range from in the $70’s per
square foot to lower $80’s per square foot providing, for example, a 1,300 square foot
home at $101,400.
•
The highest density currently marketable would be a lot width of just under 40 feet.
About 6 units per acre could be accommodated on a large site with sufficient land
remaining for open space and an amenity.
•
Once the single-family market is strengthened, higher density residential development
would become more attractive. From today’s perspective, townhomes are the next step
after the detached market is established. Since the rule of thumb outside of the center
city is that townhomes are appropriately priced at 70% to 80% of for-sale homes, a
townhome that is attractive to today’s market would be priced at $70,000 to $80,000.
Such a product would be difficult to build and we recommend that townhome
development occur when the market can support a $100,000 townhome.
Analysis of the Asian-oriented commercial market determined that, within 10 years, there will be
sufficient demand to support additional Asian-oriented business activity in the study area but
insufficient demand to fill all existing space in Asian Corners:
•
The Asian market supports certain types of Asian-oriented stores. Most common are
food-related—grocery and fish stores, and restaurants. To a lesser extent, some specialty,
services and recreation businesses are also supported. Purchases made in non-ethnic
stores include home furnishings, hardware, clothes, general merchandise, and drug stores.
•
Total supportable Asian-oriented space is projected to be 66,000 square feet within 10
years. Three-quarters of this is expected to be restaurants and food stores.
•
The building that Asian Corners now occupies is 121,393 square feet, of which 75,988
are leasable and 45,405 square feet are interior common space.
•
The interior leasable space performs poorly, while the outside space appears to do
consistently better. This, plus the fact that even in ten years only 66,000 square feet are
required for an “Asian Corners”, indicates that Asian-oriented businesses could benefit
from a newly configured space in the study area.
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Analysis of the non-Asian retail market determined that there is sufficient demand to support
certain additional retail commercial activity but insufficient demand to fill all existing non-Asian
oriented retail space, currently or in ten years:
•
A total of 394,000 square feet of retail and service space is currently supportable in the
North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area.
•
There are an estimated 387,000 square feet of fully utilized space. (Measurement of fully
utilized space excludes vacant space, poorly performing space, pawn shops, liquor stores,
service stations, check cashing and day care services). For the purpose of this analysis,
North Park Mall and North Pointe Plaza are considered part of the study area.
•
Although currently utilized space approximates the total supportable square footage, a
closer look at the make-up of supportable and occupied space by type shows an uneven
pattern in types of available stores.
•
Auto-related businesses are unusually concentrated in the study area—automotive
services, automotive parts and used car dealers.
•
At the same time, there are three categories of retail activity that are currently underrepresented in the study area—restaurants, food stores, and hardware/home improvement
stores. For these uses, there is additional square footage that could be supported in the
study area.
•
Further there is a total of 296,000 square feet of space either vacant or not currently in
full use in the study area.
•
By 2012, a total of 511,000 square feet is projected to be supported in the study area.
Even with this increase in supportable space, all existing space would not be needed and
172,000 square feet would remain vacant.
The reasons that existing space is not utilized for additional restaurants, food stores and
hardware/home improvements stores are varied:
•
From the retailers’ perspective: the lack of residential growth in the surrounding area and
growth of competitive areas.
Despite the overall population growth in Charlotte east of Interstate I-77, growth has not
taken place uniformly throughout the area. The population within a two-mile radius of
the intersection of North Tryon and Sugar Creek has increased by only 8.7% since 1990
while the overall population east of I-77 grew by 41%. Some places, such as the twomile radius from the intersection of WT Harris Boulevard and University City Boulevard,
grew by 65% during the same time.
Population growth has, in turn, influenced the location of new commercial facilities.
Stores are attracted not only by absolute numbers, but given the choice, by current growth
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activity, available land, and proximity to future potential growth.
•
From the retailers’ and potential shoppers’ perspective: the negative visual image of
many potential commercial locations accentuates the impact of the minimal market
growth.
While there are some buildings, both commercial and non-commercial, that stand out
from the rest of the structures, the impact of the dated and poorly-maintained structures
and lack of uniformity in uses and/or facades is strong enough to dominate the study area.
The interior commercial space at both Asian Corners and North Park Mall is also at a
distinct disadvantage, given the unattractive setting of the more visible locations. While
interior commercial space is not the norm currently, there are places where it can work.
These are typically strong markets and large facilities such as regional or super regional
malls.
•
From the retailers’ and potential shoppers’ perspective: the perception of the area as less
safe than other available shopping areas.
The appearance of the area contributes to the negative perception of the area and provides
the context in which potential retailers and shoppers assume any crime reported is the
norm.
Still, there are currently a range of activities and conditions that point to strengths of the corridor:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sufficient potential market demand to support a strong community shopping area;
Sufficient potential market demand to support new for-sale housing;
High traffic counts on North Tryon and Sugar Creek;
Several parcels or groups of parcels large enough to accommodate new residential
activity, each under single ownership;
Existing concentration of Asian-oriented restaurants and food stores;
Certain non-Asian establishments that are well-used by the community—Eckerds, two
Family Dollars (one next to Asian Corners and one in North Pointe Plaza), Kimbrells,
Simply Fashion, Hathaways, Radio Shack, Blockbuster, Tryon House, Big Lots, Tisun
Beauty Supply (which initially occupied 1,400 square feet at North Pointe Plaza and now
occupies 13,500 square feet at that location).
Footlocker will soon open at North Pointe Plaza.
Planned light rail transit, connecting the study area with Center City and University area;
Location of the ABC Board headquarter building in close proximity to the study area;
Construction of a new library and police station;
An historic and visually unique landmark—Sugaw Creek Presbyterian Church.
In order to develop a focused strategy to revitalize the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area, we
delineate seven distinct geographic segments in the area from a use and visual perspective.
Delineation of these segments provides the context for specific recommendations derived from
the residential and retail market analysis.
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Lanbeth
Burroughs
Wellingrford
Sugar Creek
Craighead
North Tryon
Dorton
Eastway
Greensboro
Raleigh
Raleigh
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•
Segment 1—The north side of North Tryon, from Craighead to Sugar Creek, is one of the
most unified segments due to the large number of institutional uses, both existing and
those under construction. Only 5.4 acres are not in institutional uses, of which 4.8
contiguous acres between Hope Haven and the library site are vacant or are occupied by
used car lots.
•
Segment 2—The north side of North Tryon, from Sugar Creek to Eastway, comprises the
frontage parcels that abut residential development to the north. Structures are
predominantly commercial but conditions vary widely and contribute to an inconsistent
image. A trailer truck repair business has a particularly jarring impact due to the trucks
parked directly on the property line along the sidewalk, exacerbated by the fact that the
parcel has the longest frontage of all parcels in this segment and is dominantly located at
a curve in North Tryon.
The 55 acres of this segment of the study area are owned by 28 different owners. The
largest parcel is 9.7 acres and is also the only vacant parcel. Located at the east end of
this segment at Eastway, is wraps around two parcels—one with a house, one with an
older car wash. Together, these parcels provide 14 contiguous acres.
•
Segment 3—The south side of North Tryon, from Craighead to Sugar Creek extending
south to the railroad tracks, has two components.
The frontage parcels along North Tryon are dominated by small, visually-unappealing
used car lots, each under separate ownership. These frontage parcels comprise 16 acres.
(It should be noted that one parcel of .96 acres is a cemetery which belongs to Sugaw
Creek Presbyterian Church).
The area extending south from the used car lots to the railroad tracks is industrial.
Immediately abutting the used car lots is one cement company generating traffic on
Craighead and another cement company visually dominating the view line along Sugar
Creek directly across from the old Tryon Mall. Together, these two companies occupy
almost 35 acres.
The industrial parcels south of Raleigh are occupied by older structures and outdoor
storage areas. The parcels along Craighead are the most deteriorated but do not currently
dominate the study area as they are visible only from Craighead, however; as
development interest in NoDa extends eastward, these parcels will exert a stronger
influence. All together, there are 17 acres under four owners south of Raleigh.
The remaining industrial land is ringed by Greensboro, Raleigh and Sugar Creek is
occupied primarily by substantial industrial structures in good condition and a medical
building in excellent condition.
•
Segment 4—The south side of North Tryon, at the old Tryon Mall site, is old,
underutilized and with various unrelated uses. At best, the site provides a visually
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unattractive environment, at worst, there is an appearance of abandonment of some
structures and areas. There are a total of 37 acres under seven different owners.
•
Segment 5—The south side of North Tryon, east of the old Tryon Mall to Burrough
Street and extending south to the railroad tracks, is almost entirely industrial and includes
parcels accessed via Raleigh Street off of Sugar Creek and via Dorton Street off of North
Tryon. Almost 32 of the 47 acres off of Raleigh Street are unimproved parcels or have
little improvements relative to their land area. The most visible building from Sugar
Creek is an 88,000 square foot, 50-year old building directly fronting Sugar Creek which
is currently vacant.
The parcels off of Dorton Street are occupied by somewhat newer, pre-fab warehouse
structures in good condition. The parcels fronting on North Tryon are occupied by auto
service, some retail and a self-storage business, all with an overall good appearance. The
one exception is an industrial parcel that fronts on North Tryon—it is the oldest structure
in this area, vacant, and in poor condition.
•
Segment 6—The south side of North Tryon, from Burrough Street to Eastway, comprises
the frontage parcels along North Tryon, parcels accessed by Bingham Drive between
North Tryon and Curtiswood Drive, and frontage parcels along Eastway between North
Tryon and Curtiswood Drive.
Almost one-half of the auto service businesses in the study area are located in this
segment, primarily along North Tryon along with a range of various types of commercial
uses . A number of these buildings are well maintained and are visually attractive.
However, due to the generally small size of the buildings and the poorer appearance of
some older structures, the North Tryon frontage does not present a coherent image.
The parcels that front on Bingham Drive are vacant, providing about 5.6 acres of
unimproved land.
The parcels along Eastway are a mix of two restaurants, a church, a vacant parcel that
was formerly occupied by a gas station, and two old residential structures. These latter
three parcels comprise about 2.6 acres and abut residential neighborhoods in the back of
the parcels.
•
Segment 7—The south side of North Tryon, just east of Eastway, is visually unified by
North Park Mall, North Pointe Plaza, and related outparcels—the only structures in the
sub-area. The structures are well maintained and easily accessed by the high traffic
volumes along the abutting thoroughfares.
Recommended strategies address dual paramount needs—for residential development and
for improvement of commercial sites. For-sale residential development is a means to
strengthen the commercial market and the perception of the area. Improved commercial
sites contribute to the physical revitalization of the community as well as provide sites more
able to maximize shopper and retailer support.
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Residential strategies focus on three catalyst sites that are sufficiently large to provide
opportunities for major new residential development in, and close to, the study area. Other
residential strategies focus on smaller parcels and the longer-term impact of the catalyst
developments on adjacent parcels.
Commercial strategies focus on catalyst projects that provide for two commercial nodes in
the study area, each in the vicinity of a proposed transit station. The intent is to maintain
and strengthen an existing node through rehabilitation and rejuvenate a weaker node
through mixed-use redevelopment.
County-owned property
The first strategy addresses a catalyst site that is outside the study area but sufficiently
close and large enough to accommodate major new residential development.
•
Strategy 1: Solicit developer interest in market-rate housing on County-owned open
space just south of North Park Mall. Full use of this 89.2-acre site would allow for 535
homes at 6 units per acre.
Goal: Develop the most immediately available site as a precedent for subsequent
actions. As this is an essentially vacant parcel, improvements would not require
costs typically associated with redevelopment (demolition, clearance and
environmental clean-up).
Goal: Develop single-family housing at a density that allows for the provision of
amenities.
Time Frame: Sale of land within the next two years; full absorption of homes
over a ten-year period.
South side of North Tryon, from Craighead to Sugar Creek, extending south to the railroad
tracks (Segment 3).
•
Strategy 2: Pursue the relocation of the two cement companies on the south side of
North Tryon, between Craighead and Sugar Creek, and make the contiguous acres
available for market-rate residential development. Full use of this 33-acre site would
allow for just under 200 homes at 6 units per acre.
Goal: Remove visually negative, noisy, and dusty uses and dramatically change
the image of the industrial area.
Goal: Develop single-family housing at a number and density that allows for the
provision of recreational amenities.
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Time Frame: First units on the market in about ten years (as the 89.2-acre site in
Strategy 1 approaches full absorption), assuming five years for removal process
and initial development phase of about two years. Full absorption of homes over a
five-year period.
•
Strategy 3: Support market-rate residential development on industrial land along Raleigh
Street, west of Sugar Creek (17 acres south of Raleigh and 18 acres between Greensboro
and Raleigh). These parcels will most likely come under development pressure
subsequent to the redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall and cement sites and the
implementation of the transit system. The density would be based on the strengths of the
market at the time.
Goal: Promote large-scale residential development opportunities in the study area
to strengthen the commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Development to begin in ten years.
•
Strategy 4: Support higher-density, market-rate residential development along the
frontage parcels on the south side of North Tryon between Craighead and Sugar Creek.
These parcels will most likely come under development pressure subsequent to the
redevelopment of the cement sites, old Tryon Mall, the industrial parcels to the south and
the implementation of the transit system. High density is suitable given the frontage on
North Tryon and relatively shallow lot depths.
Goal: Promote higher-density residential development opportunities in the study
area to strengthen the commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Development to begin in 15 years.
South side of North Tryon at the old Tryon Mall site (Segment 4)
•
Strategy 5: Pursue the development of a transit stop at Sugar Creek, to insure such a
station is one of two in the study area.
Goal: Create an additional positive support factor for each of the commercial
nodes through transit access.
Goal: Concentrate initial infrastructure improvements in the study area at these
commercial nodes.
Time Frame: Begin advocacy now.
•
Strategy 6: Pursue the redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site—with participation by
current landowners, if feasible—and make 20 contiguous acres available for commercial
development. The optimal location of the commercial site is in the northern segment of
the site and the optimal gross leasable area is 200,000 square feet. The 200,000 square
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feet is sufficient size to serve the general population, as well as include Asian-oriented
businesses.
Goal: Remove multiple-ownership obstacle to complete redevelopment of site.
Goal: Remove dated, underutilized, and inconsistent uses from site.
Goal: Revitalize the commercial node at North Tryon and Sugar Creek by
developing commercial space that is appropriately sized and configured for the
market, visible from both main thoroughfares, accessible by vehicular traffic and
transit, and accessible by pedestrians from new residential development on the
balance of the site and the cement site across Sugar Creek.
Goal: Establish the old Tryon Mall site as one of two primary commercial nodes
in the study area.
Time Frame: Development to begin within three years.
•
Strategy 7: Pursue the redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site—with participation by
current landowners, if feasible—and make 17 of the 37 contiguous acres available for
market-rate residential development. The optimal location of the residential portion is
the southern portion of the site.
Given the current plans for a transit station in the vicinity, allow for the most southern 10
or 11 acres to be single-family, providing for at least 60 homes at 6 units per acre. Set
aside the remaining 6 or 7 acres (between the commercial development in the northern
segment, discussed in Strategy 6, and the single family homes) for higher density
residential development as the market strengthens.
Goal: Remove multiple-ownership obstacle to complete redevelopment of site.
Goal: Remove dated, underutilized, and inconsistent uses from site.
Goal: Continue single-family housing development in the study area while
providing land to accommodate future higher density, transit-oriented
development.
Time Frame: Development to begin in about ten years (as the units on the cement
site come on the market). Absorption of single family homes over a two-year
period.
South side of North Tryon, east of the old Tryon Mall to Burrough Street and extending
south to the railroad tracks (Segment 5)
•
Strategy 8: Support market-rate residential development on industrial land along Raleigh
Street, east of Sugar Creek (47 acres). These parcels will most likely come under
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development pressure subsequent to the redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall and cement
sites and the implementation of the transit system. The density would be based on the
strengths of the market at the time.
Goal: Promote large-scale residential development opportunities in the study area
to strengthen the commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Development to begin in ten years.
South side of North Tryon, just east of Eastway (Segment 7)
•
Strategy 9: Pursue the development of a transit stop at Eastway, to make such a station
one of two in the study area.
Goal: Create an additional positive support factor for each of the commercial
nodes through transit access.
Goal: Concentrate initial infrastructure improvements in the study area at these
commercial nodes.
Time Frame: Begin advocacy now.
•
Strategy 10: Strengthen North Park Mall through reconfiguration.
Goal: Provide an up-to-date retail environment, conducive to strengthening
existing stores and attracting more variety.
Goal: Establish this site, along with North Pointe Plaza and the outparcels, as one
of two primary commercial nodes in the study area.
Time Frame: Development to begin within two years.
North side of North Tryon, from Sugar Creek to Eastway (Segment 2)
•
Strategy 11: Encourage market-rate single-family development on the 9.7-acre vacant
parcel at the northwest corner of North Tryon and West Eastway Drive. This parcel
primarily fronts on the side street with relatively little frontage on North Tryon. Full use
of this site would allow for 54 single-family homes.
Goal: Promote in-fill residential development in the study area to strengthen the
commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Development to begin in two years.
•
Strategy 12: Encourage redevelopment of the 7.9-acre parcel at the northwest corner of
North Tryon and Wellingford for market-rate housing. This parcel primarily fronts on
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two side streets with relatively little frontage on North Tryon and would most likely come
under development pressure subsequent to the redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall and
cement sites and the implementation of the transit system. The density would be based
on the strengths of the market at the time.
Goal: Promote in-fill residential development in the study area to strengthen the
commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Redevelopment to begin in 15 years.
•
Strategy 13: Encourage redevelopment of the 3.9-acre parcel at the northwest corner of
North Tryon and Lanbeth Drive for market-rate housing. This parcel backs onto a
residential street and has side-street access as well. It would most likely come under
development pressure subsequent to the implementation of the transit system. The
density would be based on the strengths of the market at the time.
Goal: Promote in-fill residential development in the study area to strengthen the
commercial market and the perception of the area.
Time Frame: Redevelopment to begin in 15 years.
North side of North Tryon, from Craighead to Sugar Creek (Segment 1)
•
Strategy 14: Encourage institutional uses on the 5.4 acres now vacant or occupied by
used car lots.
Goal: Solidify the image of this segment as an institutional center.
Time Frame: Development to begin in two years.
Current Actions (Years 1 and 2)
At the present time, the primary focus is energizing the study area through residential
developments that do not involve public funds or redevelopment expenses, although in one case
public allocation of land is required. Another focus is the creation of the framework for future
actions—the designation of an entity to carry out intermediate and long-term actions requiring
public involvement and adoption of a Master Plan. These initial actions signal to the private
sector the City’s commitment to the area and provide incentives for commercial development
and further residential development.
Action 1: City works with County to allocate all or part of the County-owned 89.2 acres
of open space just south of North Park Mall for residential development and to solicit
developer interest in market-rate housing. Public Costs: Minimal
Public Revenue: $2.7-$3.6 million at
$30,000 to $40,000 per acre.
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Action 2: Local business associations, citizen groups and the City work with CATS to
facilitate incorporation of two transit stations into CATS system design—at Sugar Creek
and Eastway.
Public Costs: Minimal
Action 3: City makes findings of residential market analysis available to encourage
market-rate single-family development on the 9.7-acre vacant parcel at the northwest
corner of North Tryon and West Eastway Drive. Work with long-time owner to place
parcel on market for this use.
Public Costs: Minimal
Action 4: City develops and adopts a Master Plan for the study area to provide all
interested landowners, developers, and retailers guidance and assurance regarding the
future of the study area.
Public Costs: Minimal
Action 5: City and business groups begin process of identifying appropriate organization,
city agency, or partnership of such organizations and agencies to spearhead land
assembly process at the old Tryon Mall site. Such an entity must have expertise in land
assembly with multiple owners, structuring owner participation if feasible, and developer
solicitations. The redevelopment of the old Mall site is complex and may require initial
lead time for organizational development. Public Costs: Minimal
Action 6: City, through all actions described above, encourages owner of North
Park Mall and Kimbrells to reconfigure and update structure. A well-designed place will
produce a “design dividend”—an asset to the community and maximization of sales.
Public Costs: Minimal
Action 7: City begins process of identifying public buildings already planned for and
seeking a site in the larger area, which could be located between Craighead and Sugar
Creek on the north side of North Tryon.
Additional Public Costs: Minimal
Near-Term Actions (Years 3 through 5)
In the near-term years, the focus is on major projects that are made possible due to actions taken
during Years 1 and 2, and new actions that lay groundwork for additional projects. All costs and
revenue estimates are in current dollars.
It should be noted that a portion of each initial public expense could be recouped upon sale of
assembled and cleared land. It should also be noted that estimates presented here are generalized
and preliminary and, although they are based on comparable sales, assessments, discussions with
real estate brokers, and discussions with demolition contractors, the ultimate cost and revenues
may be higher or lower than these preliminary estimates. The next step involves full appraisals,
negotiations and structuring of development participation.
Action 8: Developer begins construction of residential units on the 89.2-acre site.
Public Costs: None
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Action 9: City works with the cement companies to find suitable new sites.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Costs:
Land: $0 to $2.3 million-$2.6 million (for 35 acres at
$65,000 to $75,000), ranging from a trade of
suitable City-owned property to the purchase of the
current cement sites.
Moving Expenses: Includes moving equipment and
providing replacement structures. Cost is highly
dependent on whether existing plants are shut down
and existing equipment and parts are moved or
whether existing plants are kept running while new
plants are rebuilt.
Clearance Costs: Final cost is highly dependent, in part, on
the extent to which the companies transfer current
equipment, supplies and structures to the new sites
Preliminary Estimates of Public Revenue if land is purchased by
public entity, cleared and then sold: $1.05 million-$1.4 million
upon sale of 35 acres to developer at $30,000 to $40,000 per acre.
Action 10: Entity designated to spearhead redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site
negotiates a redevelopment structure with the current owners.
Public Costs: Minimal
Action 11: Entity designated to spearhead redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site
makes 20 acres available for commercial development as the initial step in
redevelopment.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Costs:
Land and buildings: $0 to $2 million-$4 million, ranging
from participation in the redevelopment program by all
property owners of the northern 20 acres to the purchase of
the entire 20 acres by a development entity.
Demolition costs: $400,000, not including any potential
asbestos-related tasks.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Revenue if land is purchased by
development entity, cleared and then sold: Approximately $4
million at $195,000 per acre at sale of vacant, cleared commercial
land.
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Action 12: Developer begins construction of a 200,000 square foot shopping center in the
northern 20 acres of the old Tryon Mall site.
Public Costs: None
Intermediate-Term Actions (Years 6 through 10)
The intermediate years continue the focus on major projects made possible by previous actions.
Action 13: Cement companies relocate to new sites, site clearance proceeds, residential
units come on the market towards the end of this period.
Public Costs: None (beyond those
those listed in Action 9)
Action 14: Entity designated to spearhead redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site
makes 10 or 11 acres available for single-family for-sale housing.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Costs:
Land and buildings: $0 to $1.0 million-$3 million, ranging
from participation in the redevelopment program by all
property owners of the southern 10 or 11 acres to the
purchase of the entire 10 to 11 acres by a development
entity.
Demolition Costs: $300,000, not including any potential
asbestos-related tasks.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Revenue if land is purchased by
development entity, cleared and then sold: $300,000-$440,000 at
$30,000 to $40,000 per acre at sale of vacant, cleared residential
land.
Action 15: Developer begins construction of a community with at least 60 houses on 10
or 11 southern acres of the old Tryon Mall site towards the end of this period.
Public Costs: None
Long-Term Actions (Years 11-15)
The focus in the long-term is on additional projects that may not be feasible until other changes
have come about, providing market-driven incentives for higher density housing on the balance
of the old Tryon Mall, and housing on other underutilized commercial and industrial sites. Due
to the large number of property owners, the entity that undertook land assembly at the old Tryon
Mall may be involved in some of these actions.
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Action 16: Developer/builder begins construction of higher density housing on the
remaining 6 or 7 acres at the old Tryon Mall site.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Costs:
Land and buildings: $0 to $1.5 million-$2.5 million,
ranging from participation in the redevelopment program
by all property owners of the remaining 6 or 7 acres to the
purchase of the entire 6 or 7 acres by a development entity.
Demolition Costs: $350,000, not including any potential
asbestos-related tasks.
Preliminary Estimates of Public Revenue if land is purchased by
development entity, cleared and then sold: $240,000-$350,000 at
$40,000 to $50,000 per acre at sale of vacant land.
Action 17: Entity designated to spearhead redevelopment of the old Tryon Mall site
investigates the need for involvement in the properties on the south side of North Tryon
between Craighead and Sugar Creek.
Action 18: Developer/builder begins construction of higher density housing on the south
side of North Tryon between Craighead and Sugar Creek.
Action 19: Developer/builder begins construction of housing along Raleigh Street, both
east and west of Sugar Creek. The density would be based on the strengths of the market
at the time.
Action 20: Developer/builder begins construction of housing at the northwest corner of
North Tryon and Wellingford. The density would be based on the strengths of the market
at the time.
Action 21: Developer/builder begins construction of housing at the northwest corner of
North Tryon and Lanbeth Drive. The density would be based on the strengths of the
market at the time.
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III. PROFILE OF HOUSING MARKET
A.
Definition of Comparable Market Area
For the purpose of identifying the potential for housing within the North Tryon/Sugar Creek
Study Area and nearby, we first defined a geographic market area that is reasonably close to the
Study Area. After surveying neighborhoods within a five-mile radius of the Study Area, it
appears that the appropriate geographic area extends northwest to Graham Street, 1.5 miles
southwest and south to Matheson and Shamrock Drive, 2.5 miles north to I-85, and 4 miles east
to WT Harris Boulevard.
The defined North Tryon/Sugar Creek market area specifically excludes downtown (to the west)
as it is distinctly urban in character, a unique trait in the Charlotte area. The area north of I-85 is
specifically excluded due to the barrier created by the freeway and the area east of WT Harris
Boulevard is strongly influenced by its close proximity to the University and major shopping
opportunities. The area south of Matheson and Shamrock Drive is in the Central/Albermarle
market area.
B.
Housing Activity in the Market Area Since 1992
1.
Overview
Table III-1 presents an overview of residential development in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek
market area since 1992. Most notable is the complete absence of development activity before
1998. Earlier waves of growth passed over this area to develop where large parcels of vacant
land were available, providing what is now mid- to high-priced housing in the University area
and low-to mid-priced housing beyond. The extent of activity in the market area in the last four
years indicates that demand for low- to mid-priced housing has outstripped supply in the
University area and buyers’ preference for closer-in, rather than further out, locations.
The following are comparisons of the market area to the larger Charlotte market:
•
New home size in the market area is smaller than in the larger Charlotte market—
the average size of a new home in Charlotte is 2,200 square feet according to
National Home Builders. Average mid-point of all housing types (condominium,
townhouse, and detached housing) in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek market area is
1,310 square feet, ranging from an average smallest size of 1,084 square feet to
the average largest size of 1,536 square feet. Even when including only singlefamily homes, the average home size of 1,409 square feet—ranging from an
average smallest size of 1,291 square feet to the average largest size of 1,691
feet—is smaller than in the larger Charlotte market.
•
New home prices are lower than in the larger Charlotte market and surrounding
areas—the average price of all new homes in all of Charlotte, for the twelve
months ending June 2002, was $185,104; $196,796 in the Central sub-market,
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Table III-1: North Tryon Trade Area Comparable Communities Active or Closed-Out, 1992-2002
Builder
Project
Product
Type
Average
House
Price
Closed
Bob Hopkins
Artisan Place
Condo
n.a.
n.a.
140
n.a.
Mulvaney
Citiside citihomes
Condo
$101,072
79-92
79-95
n.a.
Mar-00
JDH Development
Noda Lofts
Condo
n.a.
n.a.
73-150
n.a.
Apr-00
Condo
n.a.
n.a.
144-150
n.a.
Mar-02
92-105
n.a.
Mar-00
n.a.
Dec-01
102-120
n.a.
Mar-00
Crosland Commercial The Nevitt Building
village
condo
Th &
condo
Closed
House
Range (k)
Price Sheet
Range(k)
Lot
width
Opened or
Project
Approval
Date
Mulvaney
Citiside VillageHomes
(quads)
Gateway Homes
The Colony
Mulvaney
Citiside TownHomes
TH
$111,000
Ryan
Newell Crossing
TH
$115,460
110-114
102-105
n.a.
2000
Mulvaney
Citiside (Courtyard)
(innov)
SF
$122,000
117-126
115-128
40
Mar-00
Mulvaney
Citiside (Plaza) 40x100
SF
$126,429
118-141
113-130
40
Mar-00
Saussy-Burbank
Citiside (Preserve)
SF
None yet
n.a.
110-130
40
Aug-02
Galloway
Hunter Brook
SF
$114,170
94-120
94-126
40
Urbana
JasperK& Frank R Park
SF
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
2000
zoning
approved
Moser
King Acres (ph 2)
SF
$110,880
95-129
-
60
1999
Pulte
Newell Station/Crossing
SF
$144,450
131-146
133-149
60
2000
Crossmann
NorthRidge Village
SF
$102,500
89-139
-
55
1998
Galloway/Eastwood
Rocky River Village
SF
$146,090
121-176
116-162
60
1999
Shore
The Hamptons
SF
$91,000
80-100
-
50
1998
Liberty
The Hamptons
SF
$ 95,545
88-107
50
2000
$ 99,000
n.a.
Average, all product types
Average, SF
n.a.
$113,815
$117,423
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Table III-1: North Tryon Trade Area Comparable Communities Active or Closed-Out, 1992-2002
(continued)
Project
Product
Type
Q'trly
Total Sold but
RemainClosHouse size lots or
Closed ing to
Closing ing
not
range-sq ft units closed to date
close Density 1Q 2002 Pace
Artisan Place
condo
1,224
8
Citiside citihomes
condo
861-1278
138
Noda Lofts
condo
447-963
11
The Nevitt Building
condo
886-1156
10
Citiside VillageHomes
(quads)
village
condo
1102-1337
180
The Colony
Th & condo
34
8
0
8
31
107
9
0
11
-
6
0
10
-
29
151
6.95 all
6
0
34
12.10
-
19
104
6.95 all
5
2.4
31
40
2
6.2
34
6.95 all
6
3.9
3.6
Citiside TownHomes
TH
1156-1486
123
Newell Crossing
TH
1,380
71
Citiside (Courtyard)
(innov)
SF
1301-1513
52
6
46
6.95 all
3
1.5
Citiside (Plaza) 40x100
SF
1198-1633
6
6
0
6.95 all
0
1.5
Citiside (Preserve)
SF
1240-1642
93
0
93
6.95 all
-
Hunter Brook
SF
1100-1700
69
33
36
6.99
2
7.5
JasperK& Frank R Park
SF
800-2500
12
0
12
8.79
-
-
King Acres (ph 2)
SF
960-1650
32
32
0
3.30
-
10.7
Newell Station/Crossing
SF
1550-2010
221
113
108
2.98
19
18.8
NorthRidge Village
SF
960-1871
173
159
14
5.97
-
22.7
Rocky River Village
SF
1200-2060
166
76
90
4.00
6
10.0
The Hamptons (Shore)
SF
66
66
0
3.94
-
5.8
The Hamptons (Liberty)
SF
92
39
53
4.30
12
12.7
Average, all product types
Average, SF
1007-1194
58
0
0
1,310
1,409
Sources: Builders, Land Matters, The Littlejohn Group, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Planning Commission.
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and; $150,646 in the Northeast sub-market. The average single-family home in
the North Tryon/Sugar Creek market area was $117,423.
•
The closing pace in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek market area is healthy
relative to the larger Charlotte market. The average closing pace in Charlotte is
24 units per year or 6 a quarter. In the North Tryon trade area, almost all singlefamily projects were closing at a faster rate than this. This faster rate is directly
attributable to the price of the homes.
2.
Currently/recently active single-family home developments
Of the identified comparables, three particular developments provide optimal insight into the
nature of successful housing products in the market area. All three developments are between I85 and North Tryon, east of Sugar Creek, and offer single-family detached homes:
NorthRidge: Homes range from 960 square feet to 1,871 square feet, with a lot
width of 50 feet and an overall density of 5.97 units per acres. The average
closing price has been $102,500. This development has experienced the highest
absorption rate—22.7 units per quarter—in the market area, due to price and
being one of the first new developments in the area in years. At the time, there
was little competition.
The Hamptons by Liberty: Homes range from 1,007 square feet to 1,194 square
feet, with a lot width of 50 feet and an overall density of 4.3 units per acre. The
average closing price has been $95,545 with an absorption rate of 12.7 units per
quarter. (The portion of The Hamptons constructed by Shore had a much lower
absorption rate due to internal corporate factors).
Hunter Brook: Homes range from 1,100 square feet to 1,700 square feet, with a
lot width of 40 feet and an overall density of 6.99 units per acre. The average
closing price has been $114,170. This development has experienced an
absorption rate of 7.5 units per quarter, somewhat lower than expected due to
internal corporate changes at the time.
The residential development off of WT Harris Boulevard between The Plaza and Milton Road
offers housing that is sized and priced similarly to the above three:
King Acres (Phase 2): Homes range from 960 square feet to 1,650 square feet
with a lot width of 60 feet and an overall density of 3.3 units per acre. The
average closing price was $110,880. Absorption was at a rate of 10.7 units per
quarter.
The residential development closest to the study area—Citiside—offers homes that are sized
similarly to the above developments but are priced slightly higher.
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Citiside Courtyard: Homes range from 1,301 square feet to 1,513 square feet, with
a lot width of 40 feet and an overall density of 6.95 units per acre. The average
closing price has been $122,000
Citiside Plaza: Homes range from 1,198 square feet to 1,633 square feet, with a
lot width of 40 feet and an overall density of 6.95 units per acre. The average
closing price has been $126,429.
Absorption at Citiside has been extremely slow—1.5 units per quarter per product line—relative
to other developments in the market area. This may be attributable to its location away from
other new home communities, resulting in less attention by realtors and less response by the
market.
The residential developments in the market area that are closer to the University, offer larger and
higher-priced homes:
Newell Station/Crossing: Homes range from 1,550 square feet to 2,010 square
feet, with a lot width of 60 feet and an overall density of 2.98. The average
closing price has been $144,450 with an absorption rate of 18.8 units per acre.
The absorption rate reflects the low home price of $109,000 when the project
first opened and the broad product offering.
Rocky River Village: Homes range from 1,200 square feet to 2,060 square feet
with a lot width of 60 feet and an overall density of 4 units per acre. The average
closing price has been $146,090 with an absorption rate of 10 units per quarter.
3.
Currently/recently active condominium and townhome developments
There have been fewer condominium and townhome projects than single-family detached
developments in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek market area since 1992.
Of the six condominium projects, four are in the North Davidson (NoDa) neighborhood and two
are at Citiside. Due to the early stages of the NoDa projects, comparisons among the group are
difficult. Still, it can be noted that although the size of the units in the two areas are similar—
with most units between 800 square feet and 1,300 square feet—prices are higher in NoDa. The
listed prices (as opposed to the closing prices discussed for single-family detached homes) are
between $140,000 and $150,000 in NoDa (although an exceptionally small unit of 447 square
feet is priced at $73,000). Condominiums at Citiside are listed at $79,000 to $105,000.
The absorption rate for condominiums at Citiside, the only project where units have closed, has
been 3.6 to 3.9 units per quarter per product type. This is higher than the absorption rate of
single-family detached homes per product type at Citiside and can be attributed to price.
Of the three townhome projects, one is at Citiside, one is in NoDa (The Colony), and one is
closer to the University area (Newell Crossing). The size of the units are similar, ranging from
1,100 to about 1,400, while the average closing prices have been slightly lower at Citiside: The
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closing prices at Citiside has been $111,000, while the average closing price at Newell Crossing
has been $115,460. (Similar data for The Colony is not yet available).
4.
Apartments
Three apartment complexes have been developed in the market area since 1992 and all three
opened within the last three years. Two are market rate: Harris Glen, located off of WT Harris
Boulevard just south of The Plaza, opened in 1999 and has a vacancy rate of about 16%, just
slightly higher than the overall apartment vacancy rate in Charlotte of 12.6%. The Links at
Citiside just opened this year (2002) so that the vacancy rate of 55% reflects the lease-up period
of a new property.
5.
Proposed Residential Projects
Over 800 for-sale units are in various planning and proposal stages for construction in the market
area. These include almost 400 single-family homes, over 400 townhomes, and 10
condominiums. The single-family projects are off of WT Harris Boulevard near The Plaza and a
location closer to the University area at Old Concord and Rocky River Road; the townhome
projects are in NoDa and the location at Old Concord and Rocky River Road; the condominium
projects are in NoDa. In addition, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Housing Partnership owns land for
25 townhomes adjacent to the CMHP’s apartments.
Over 100 market rate apartments are under construction on the I-85 Service Road, east of Sugar
Creek and 90 apartments are proposed in NoDa. In addition, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg
Housing Partnership is constructing 32 units next to the existing 42-unit building.
C.
Projections
Based on the above comparables, it appears that the most instructive sub-market for housing in
and near the Study Area is defined by its location outside of NoDa and not directly proximate to
the University area. The historic ambiance of NoDa and the proximity to major shopping areas
in the University area, as well as to the University itself, has resulted in distinct sub-markets not
immediately applicable to the Study Area.
Demand for housing in and near the Study Area is currently strongest for single-family detached
homes, rather than for townhomes and condominiums. Most importantly, the Study Area and
nearby areas are most effectively energized through increasing the supply of for-sale housing.
Once the single-family market is strengthened, higher density residential development would
become more attractive. For example, the townhomes and condos along Mallard Creek have
value and image because of the established single-family market in the University and adjacent
areas.
Total absorption in the market area is projected at 30 to 40 a quarter, or 120 to 160 a year.
Absorption at one project is projected at 10 to 20 a quarter, or 40 to 80 a year, if appropriately
priced. Target prices in and near the Study Area range from in the $70’s per square foot to lower
$80’s per square foot providing, for example, a 1,300 square foot home at $101,400.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
The highest density currently marketable would be a lot width of just under 40 feet. About 6
units per acre could be accommodated on a large site with sufficient land remaining for open
space and an amenity.
From today’s perspective, townhomes are the next step after the detached market is established.
Since the rule of thumb outside of the center city is that townhomes are appropriately priced at
70% to 80% of for-sale homes, a townhome that is attractive to today’s market would be priced
at $70,000 to $80,000. Such a product would be difficult to build and we recommend that
townhome development occur when the market can support a $100,000 townhome.
D.
Recommendations
As stated above, the Study Area and surrounding areas are most effectively energized through
increasing the supply of for-sale single-family housing. Three potential catalyst sites have been
identified as sufficiently large to provide the opportunity for major new development in, and
close to, the study area. Large-scale development optimizes the impact on perception of the area,
maximizes the impact on commercial opportunities by noticeably increasing the number of local
consumers, and allows for the physical space to provide amenities as part of an attractive
residential site.
The most immediately available site, in terms of existing use, is owned by Mecklenburg County
and is off of Eastway, just south of North Park Mall. Full use of this 89.2-acre site, would allow
for 535 homes at 6 units per acre. Assuming the mid-point of the absorption rates identified
above, full absorption of this project would take place over a 10-year period. Partial
development of this site is also viewed as beneficial to the study area, although at a reduced level
of impact. If the balance of the site remains open space as a park, any residential development
that does take place is able to take full advantage of the park as an amenity.
The second identified site is now occupied by two cement companies between Craighead and
Sugarcreek, on the south side of North Tryon. Together these sites provide 33 acres.
Development for residential purposes allows for removal of visually negative, noisy, and dusty
uses and dramatically changing the image of an industrial area that has seen little change for
decades. The 33 acres would allow for just under 200 homes, with an estimated absorption over
a four-year period. Assuming that the removal process takes about five years, and that
development of a first phase is completed within the subsequent two years, this site would begin
to offer units towards the final phases of the 89.2-acre site, discussed above.
Removal of the cement companies also impacts the potential of the old Tryon Mall site, creating
an environment conducive to residential development. With the likely use of about 20 acres of
the 37 acres for commercial use at the intersection of North Tryon and Sugar Creek, 17 acres are
available for residential development. Full development of the 17 acres at 6 units per acres
would allow for 100 homes; however, if a transit station is placed in the vicinity, we recommend
that initially 10 or 11 acres be single-family development and the balance be set aside. As the
single-family developments on both sides of Sugar Creek are fully absorbed, the ability of the
market to support higher density housing on the remaining land can be re-assessed.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Development of the initial 10 or 11 acres is projected to begin as residential development on the
cement sites comes on the market.
It should be noted that the success of the latter two catalyst projects is expected to impact the
abutting industrial land to the south, bringing development pressure on parcels that are currently
underutilized or occupied by older structures for which there is a weakening demand.
Opportunities for higher density housing also exists on the lots fronting North Tryon on the south
side, particularly if a transit station is located at the intersection of North Tryon and Sugar Creek.
It should be further noted that once the location of the transit alignment and transit station is
final, these recommendations may be somewhat adjusted.
Finally, in addition to the three catalyst projects, smaller in-fill development of single-family
homes is recommended within existing residential communities to continue improving the value
of he housing market and strengthening support for commercial activity.
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IV. DEFINITIONS FOR RETAIL ANALYSIS
This section identifies and discusses the major assumptions and terminology that are utilized in
this study.
A. DEFINITION OF SHOPPING CENTER TERMS
The following discussion introduces and defines some of the major terms, which are utilized
within the shopping center industry that have application in this study. The major source for the
definitions presented here is the Urban Land Institute, Shopping Center Development Handbook,
(Third Edition, 1999) and Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers: 2002.
1. Commercial
The term Acommercial@ has many different definitions which can encompass a variety of
activities. For the purposes of this study, the term has been defined to include those
establishments providing for: 1) the sale of consumer retail goods generally classified under the
categories of apparel, general merchandise, furniture/furnishings/appliances, specialty, eating
and drinking, automotive, building materials/hardware, food, and liquor stores, and; 2) the
provision of selected services which are normally provided in shopping centers and retail
districts, including personal (hair, cleaners, etc.), medical, legal, financial, insurance, real estate,
and recreational (movie theaters, video games, etc.) services.
2. Shopping Center
A shopping center is a group of architecturally unified commercial establishments built on a site
which is planned, developed, owned, and managed as an operating unit and related in its
location, size, and type of shops to the trade area that the unit services. Typically, the unit
provides on-site parking in definite relationship to the types and total size of the stores.
3. Freestanding Locations
A freestanding location refers to a commercial site, which is independently planned and
developed for use by a single, or very small number of, retail tenant(s) without necessary
architectural or functional relationship to surrounding parcels. Characteristically, freestanding
locations are found along major highways or other points of relatively high accessibility.
4. Shopping Area or District
Shopping areas or districts are collections of individual freestanding stores which stand on
separate but proximate lot parcels along streets and highways or clustered in downtown business
districts, with or without incidental parking.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
5. Market or Trade Area
The market or trade area refers to that geographic area which contains people who are likely to
purchase a given class of goods or services from a particular firm or groups of firms such as a
collection of stores within a shopping center.
6. GLA or Gross Leasable Area
GLA or gross leasable area is that unit of measure utilized by the shopping center industry to
express size of shopping centers and individual tenant spaces. It is a measure, in square feet, of
the total floor area designed for tenants= occupancy and exclusive use.
7. Types of Retail Goods and Services
Retail goods and services are commonly classified by the characteristics of the consumer
behavior involved in their purchase and use. For purposes of this analysis four types of goods
and services have been identified:
Convenience Goods
Those goods which are needed immediately and which are often purchased where it is
most convenient for the shopper. Examples include food, liquor, drugs, sundries, lowpriced restaurants, limited apparel, and limited furnishings.
Shopper Goods
Those goods for which a customer will take considerable time and effort to find the most
suitable choice. Examples include major apparel, general merchandise, furniture and
specialty (camera, jewelry, etc.) purchases.
Heavy Commercial Goods
These goods are often similar to shopper goods, however the manner in which they are
sold requires that the selling establishments have a special location. Examples of heavy
commercial uses include: automobiles and parts, building materials/nursery goods, and
service stations.
Commercial Services
Commercial services include those activities desired by local residents, and include
personal, financial, real estate and medical/dental services activities. Commercial
recreation uses, following the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system, are
considered as a subset of the services sector and are therefore included within this
category.
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8. Anchor Tenant
An anchor tenant is the prime attraction of a shopping center or district in terms of drawing
patronage to that retail location. In this regard the anchor tenant best defines the market Areach@
of a shopping center, i.e., the furthest distance or maximum amount of time that a consumer will
expend to satisfy his shopping requirements. Typically, anchor tenants occupy the largest
amount of space and generate the greatest volume of sales of the tenancies within a center or
district.
B. TYPES OF RETAIL LOCATIONS
The analysis of retail demand presented in this report disaggregates demand for goods and
services into basic types of retail locations. These locations reflect current development practice
and retail location theory that places most retail development in one of the following
classifications: convenience, neighborhood, community centers, regional or super regional
centers and freestanding locations. Freestanding locations have been defined and discussed
above. With regard to the four types of shopping centers, each can be distinguished according to
its physical characteristics and major purposes as summarized below. As it is pointed out in the
following discussion, there is overlap in terms of physical size and purpose amongst the three
center types so that in all cases, Athe major tenant (anchor tenant) classification determines the
type of shopping center.@ (Urban Land Institute, Shopping Center Development Handbook, p.4)
1. Convenience Center
The convenience center is similar to the neighborhood center in the provision of convenience
goods and personal services but it differs in that it is typically not anchored by a supermarket.
The anchor is usually some other type of convenience store or service such as a minimart.
Convenience centers contain a minimum of 30,000 square feet of gross leasable area.
2. Neighborhood Center
The neighborhood center provides for the sale of convenience goods (food, drugs, and sundries)
and personal services, which satisfy the daily requirements of the local trade area population.
The primary or anchor tenant for a neighborhood center is typically, but not always, a
supermarket. Geographic convenience is the determining factor in consumer selections--a
resident typically selects such stores from among alternative choices conveniently located near
his/her home. Wide selection of merchandise or service is a secondary consideration. In
today=s market the neighborhood center has a typical GLA of 60,000 square feet, but in practice
may range from 30,000 to 100,000 square feet on sites of three to fifteen acres. It normally
services a trade area residing within a 1-1.5 mile radius, equivalent to a maximum six-minute
driving time.
The neighborhood center, often called a convenience center, is the smallest of the designated
shopping centers.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
3. Community Center
The community center occupies the third level of the shopping center hierarchy. The anchor
tenant is a junior department store, limited price variety stores, discount department store, or
super drug store in addition to the supermarket. Others are built around multiple anchors in
what are commonly referred to as power centers or super community centers. The community
center does not have a full line department store as a tenant, though it may have a discount
department store as an anchor.
The community center has a typical GLA of 150,000 square feet, though the actual size may vary
from 100,000 to 500,000 square feet. Again the anchor tenant is the determinant of the market
area or drawing power of the center, which can be characterized as providing greater depth and
variety of merchandise than does the neighborhood center.
The community center draws the major share of its patronage from within a three- to five-mile
radius, or within a 10- to 15-minute driving time. It is also somewhat vulnerable to competition
within a suburban context, as it is often too big to thrive on just an immediate trade area, yet not
strong enough in terms of customer attraction to compete effectively with large regional malls
discussed below.
4. Regional/Super Regional Center
The largest of the center classifications, the regional center provides a full range of shopping
goods--general merchandise, apparel, furniture, specialty--built around one or two full-line
department stores. For purposes of classification, ULI uses a standard size range of 300,000 to
900,000 feet to describe regional centers, with 500,000 square feet as typical.
A super regional center is one with three or more department stores, with at least 500,000 square
feet and often ranging up to 1.5 million square feet.
5. Caveats with Respect to Classification
The definitions of the basic center types and their characteristics as presented above must be
regarded as indicators for defining and understanding shopping centers (Urban Land Institute,
Shopping Center Development Handbook, p.4). They are not absolute standards, and the ULI
warns the basic elements of any center may change because of the need to adapt to the
characteristics of the trade area, including the nature of the competition, population density, and
income levels.
In further recognition of the need for flexibility in shopping center definition, it is necessary to
identify a hybrid, which has emerged over the last decade:
“Power Center”
The “power center” represents the latest retail development and combines the elements of
the drawing strength of a regional mall with the convenience of a neighborhood shopping
31
Anita Kramer & Associates
center. Proposed by the ambitious expansion activities of high advertising specialty
retailers, power centers offer a quick in-and-out shopping opportunity. In terms of size
and major tenants, power centers tend to be somewhat comparable to a larger community
shopping center, and in many respects may represent the re-emergence of that type of
facility to a new position of importance in the retail landscape. Anchor tenants include
major discount clothing stores such as Marshall’s, Ross, and Nordstrom Rack and other
well-known retailers such as Pier 1, Circuit City, Toys R Us and Home Depot. Anchor
tenants may constitute as much as eighty percent of the total space in a power center, a
proportion of which is considerably higher than the typical community shopping center.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
V.
PROFILE OF BUSINESS INVENTORY
The detailed business inventory indicates that there are six distinct sub-areas in the North
Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area. In addition, a seventh area is included in the profile—the
shopping centers just east of Eastway—since the centers will impact, and be impacted by,
activity in the study area. The seven sub-areas are as follows:
Two on the north side of North Tryon:
Craighead to Sugar Creek;
Sugar Creek to Eastway;
One on the south side of North Tryon, west of Sugar Creek:
Craighead to Sugar Creek, extending south to the railroad tracks
Four on the south side of North Tryon, east of Sugar Creek:
Old Tryon Mall site, extending south to Raleigh Street;
East of the old Tryon Mall to Burrough Street, extending south to the railroad tracks
Burrough Street to Eastway.
East of Eastway—North Park Mall, North Pointe Plaza and associated outparcels
A.
Types and Locations of Businesses
As shown in Tables V-1 through V-3, there are a total of 2.06 million square feet of nonresidential building space in the study area, of which almost 51% is industrial space and 39% is
commercial space.
The industrial space is primarily concentrated in two locations, both on the south side of North
Tryon: between Craighead and Sugar Creek, where 56% of the occupied space is located; east of
the old Tryon Mall site to Burrough Street, where 37% of the occupied space is located. Both
concentrations extend south to the railroad tracks. In fact, both these areas are almost entirely
industrial, with 90% or more of the building space occupied by industrial activity. Overall,
industrial space is in the study area is moderately active with total vacancy rate of 20%.
The commercial space is somewhat more dispersed with 30% at the old Tryon Mall site and 35%
in the shopping centers just east of Eastway. Another 18% is on the north side of North Tryon
between Sugar Creek and Eastway. Commercial space is the predominant use in all three areas,
although the old Tryon Mall site also has the largest amount of industrial activity outside the two
main industrial sub-areas and 54% of all vacant commercial space in the Study Area. Overall,
26% of the commercial space is in the study area is vacant, or about 226,000 square feet.
Approximately 8% of the non-residential space is used for activity other than business, such as
storefront churches, childcare, private transportation services, social services and governmental
activity. Three-quarters of this type of activity are located west of Sugar Creek on the north side
of North Tryon. This includes Hope Heaven, as well as the library, police station and job link
now under construction. It should be noted that the Sugaw Creek Presbyterian Church and
Solena Charter School are also predominant uses in this sub-area
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Table V-1A
Inventory of Physical Space in North Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area
(Square Feet)
Commercial Space
Auto Service
Ind/Whsl/Dist
Other Uses
TOTAL
Commercial Space Details
Occupied
Retail
Service (non-auto)
Pawn
Office
Other
Vacant
Total Commercial
Industrial Space Details
Occupied
Vacant
Total Industrial
North side of North Tryon
South side of North Tryon
Craighead Sugar Creek
Craighead
Old E. of Old Burroughs
N Park
to
to
to
Tryon Mall site to
to N Pointe
Sugar Creek
Eastway Sugar Creek Mall site Burroughs Eastway outparcels
Total
7,532
143,389
20,691 245,388
40,020
67,702 280,206 804,928
0
15,138
7,162
1,288
4,085
24,492
0
52,165
0
12,000
592,007 62,646
389,285
0
0 1,055,938
118,090
11,667
8,164 17,670
0
0
0 155,591
125,622
182,194
628,024 326,992
433,390
92,194 280,206 2,068,622
1,800
5,732
0
0
0
0
7,532
71,746
20,965
4,500
0
0
46,178
143,389
0
0
0
12,000
0
12,000
16,282 81,199
4,409 10,089
0
0
0
0
0 31,698
0 122,402
20,691 245,388
526,997
65,010
592,007
62,646
0
62,646
34,395
0
4,500
0
1,125
0
40,020
36,598
13,068
2,934
13,014
0
2,088
67,702
244,680
144,605
389,285
0
0
0
198,497
17,818
0
0
8600
55291
280,206
440,517
72,081
11,934
13,014
41,423
225,959
804,928
0 846,323
0 209,615
0 1,055,938
Table V-1B
Inventory of Physical Space in North Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area
(Acres)
Total Acres
North side of North Tryon
South side of North Tryon
Craighead Sugar Creek
Craighead
Old E. of Old Burroughs
N Park
to
to
to
Tryon Mall site to
to N Pointe
Sugar Creek
Eastway Sugar Creek Mall site Burroughs Eastway outparcels
47
55
83
47
79
39
32
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Total
382
Table V-2
Inventory of Physical Space in North Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area
Distribution by Type Within Each Sub-Area
Commercial Space
Auto Service
Ind/Whsl/Dist
Other Uses
TOTAL
Commercial Space Details
Occupied
Retail
Service(non-auto)
Pawn
Office
Other
Vacant
Total Commercial
Industrial Space Details
Occupied
Vacant
Total Industrial
North side of North Tryon
South side of North Tryon
Craighead Sugar Creek Craighead
Old E. of Old Burroughs N Park
to
to
to Tryon Mall site to
to N Pointe
Sugar Creek
Eastway Sugar Creek Mall site Burroughs Eastway outparcels Total
6%
79%
3%
75%
9%
73%
100% 39%
0%
8%
1%
0%
1%
27%
0% 3%
0%
7%
94%
19%
90%
0%
0% 51%
94%
6%
1%
5%
0%
0%
0% 8%
100%
100%
100% 100%
100%
100%
100%100%
24%
76%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
50%
15%
3%
0%
0%
32%
100%
79%
21%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
33%
4%
0%
0%
13%
50%
100%
86%
0%
11%
0%
3%
0%
100%
54%
19%
4%
19%
0%
3%
100%
71% 55%
6% 9%
0% 1%
0% 2%
3% 5%
20% 28%
100%100%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
100%
89%
11%
100%
100%
0%
100%
63%
37%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0% 80%
0% 20%
0%100%
Table V-3
Inventory of Physical Space in North Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area
Distribution by Type Across Sub-Areas
Commercial Space
Auto Service
Ind/Whsl/Dist
Other Uses
TOTAL
Commercial Space Details
Occupied
Retail
Service(non-auto)
Pawn
Office
Other
Vacant
Total Commercial
Industrial Space Details
Occupied
Vacant
Total Industrial
North side of North Tryon
South side of North Tryon
Craighead Sugar Creek Craighead
Old E. of Old Burroughs N Park
to
to
to Tryon Mall site to
to N Pointe
Sugar Creek
Eastway Sugar Creek Mall site Burroughs Eastway outparcels Total
1%
18%
3%
30%
5%
8%
35%100%
0%
29%
14%
2%
8%
47%
0%100%
0%
1%
56%
6%
37%
0%
0%100%
76%
7%
5%
11%
0%
0%
0%100%
6%
9%
30%
16%
21%
4%
14%100%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
16%
29%
38%
0%
0%
20%
18%
4%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
18%
14%
0%
0%
77%
54%
30%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
35 1%
62%
31%
56%
7%
0%
6%
8%
0%
38%
0%
3%
0%
5%
8%
18%
25%
100%
0%
1%
8%
45%100%
25%100%
0%100%
0%100%
21%100%
24%100%
35%100%
29%
0%
0%100%
69%
0%
0%100%
Anit37%
a Kramer &0%
Associates0%100%
although freestanding churches on property owned by the churches, schools and cemeteries are
not included in the analysis of space.
Only 3% of the non-residential space is used for automobile repair services.
Used car lots are a visually dominant use in two sub-areas but are best measured in acreage, due
to their intensive use of land rather than of building space. In total, 19 acres in the study area
are occupied by used car lots. Of this, 6 acres are on the south side of Tryon, west of Sugar
Creek. While this is only a small share of the total acreage in this sub-area, it is just under 40%
of the acreage fronting North Tryon in this sub-area. Another 8 acres of used car lots are on the
south side of North Tryon, between Burrough Road and Eastway, about 21% of the acreage in
that sub-area. The balance of used car lots are in scattered locations, primarily along North
Tryon.
B.
Old Tryon Mall Site
Due to the wide array of activity and building use on the old Tryon Mall site, a separate profile is
provided. In general, the site can be characterized as old, underutilized, and internally
inconsistent.
A total of 372,400 square feet of building space are now on the site, including 327,000 square
feet of gross leasable commercial space and 45,400 of interior common area (in Asian Corners).
The site covers 37 acres.
The oldest structure is the 25,900 square foot Park N Shop, constructed in 1960.
The largest structure, the old mall itself, was constructed in 1968 and includes a total of 307,400
square feet. Of this, only 54,000 square feet or 18% of the total structure are in active retail use.
Of the balance of the space, 31% is vacant or marginally-used leaseable area, 20% is in light
industrial use, 15% is interior common area, 10% is occupied by a gym, 6% by a storefront
church.
The newest structures are on the south end of the site and include an abandoned theater of 20,200
square feet and an active cleaners of 4,000 square feet, both of which were constructed in 1972.
The other small, scattered buildings along Sugar Creek and North Tryon were constructed
between 1968 and 1971.
C.
Types of Retail and Service Businesses
Table V-4 shows the distribution of retail businesses in the Study Area by total square footage.
The largest category of retail stores, in terms of total space occupied, is food which occupies
25% of all active retail space. Eighty-eight percent of the food store space is attributable to three
grocery stores: Park N Shop, International Market, and Bi-Lo. The balance is attributable to
convenience stores.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
All other categories are small—auto parts occupy 16% of active retail space, furniture and
appliances occupy 15% (of which about 66% is attributable to Kimbrell’s Furniture), eating and
drinking establishments occupy 13% of the active retail space (of which 84% is sit-down
restaurants), general merchandise occupies 12%, and specialty occupy 11%.
Services, on the other hand, fall into two large categories: Personal, financial, business and
medical services account for 58% (of which 52% is personal services such as hair, nail and
cleaners) of active service space; auto repair accounts for 42% of active service space.
While there are no set standards as to the makeup of retail shopping areas, it appears that the
study area taken as a whole, has an unusually large amount of auto parts stores. With the auto
repair services and the used car lots, as well, the study area now conveys a strong image of
automobile-oriented businesses.
D.
Level of Retail Services
Examination of the size and type of outlets and the grouping of stores in shopping centers
suggests that the retail activity in the study area serves local neighborhoods. About 60% of all
occupied retail and service space is in the nine shopping centers in Table V-5 that are currently
in commercial use. Existing anchors in eight of the centers are typical of neighborhood,
convenience and small strip centers and include a grocery store, convenience store, discount
general merchandise stores, services such as medical and realty offices, a small electronics store
and a center without an anchor.
The sizes of the shopping centers are also typical of neighborhood, convenience and small strip
centers, ranging from a strip center of about 5,000 square feet at Wellingford to Asian Corners
and North Pointe Plaza, which are both just under 80,000 square feet of gross leasable area.
The ninth center—North Park Mall—is the only shopping center in the study area that serves as a
community shopping center due to both its size (181,000 square feet of gross leasable area) and
current anchor (Bi-Lo). When Bi-Lo vacates its space, assuming that the space is occupied by
other tenants, North Park Mall would remain a community center with Kimbrell’s as the anchor.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Table V-4
Active Retail and Services Inventory in North Tryon/Sugar Creek Study Area By Type*
(Square Feet)
North side of North Tryon
South side of North Tryon
Craighead Sugar Creek Craighead
Old E. of Old Burroughs N Park
to
to
to
Tryon Mall site to
to N Pointe
Sugar Creek
Eastway Sugar Creek Mall site Burroughs Eastway outparcels
Retail
Shopper Goods
Apparel
General Merchandise
Furniture/Appliances
Specialty
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food
Grocery
Convenience
Packaged Liquor
Eating and Drinking
Fast Food
Sit-down
Bar
Heavy Commercial Goods
Building Materials, Hardware
Automotive
Parts
Used Car Sales (acres)
Gas Stations (acres)
TOTAL RETAIL, SQ FT
Services**
Auto Repair
Personal, Fin, Bus, Medical
TOTAL SERVICES, SF FT
TOTAL RETAIL, SERVICES
* Does not include vacant space
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
Total
0
0
0
0
1,147
0
8,691
1,696
0
0
0
0
877
12,009
0
9,830
0
0
5,250
1,125
1,045
0
5,868
7,494
17,200
39,265
47,647
28,681
20,269
51,274
67,456
48,826
5%
12%
15%
11%
0
0
11,340
0
0
0
0
11,340
3%
0
0
0
0
10,577
0
0
0
0
40,883
533
0
0
0
2,352
0
0
0
56160
0
0
97,043
11,110
2,352
22%
3%
1%
0
1,800
0
2,981
7,677
2,018
0
4,942
0
0
17,067
0
0
0
0
0
12,450
0
4,230
5,314
0
7,211
49,250
2,018
2%
11%
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0
4
0
1,800
36,959
1
0
71,746
0
6
0
16,282
0
0
0
81,199
25,668
0
0
34,395
9,741
8
1
36,598
0 72,368
0
19
0
1
198,497 440,517
16%
100%
0
5,732
5,732
15,138
20,965
36,103
7,162
4,409
11,571
1,288
10,089
11,377
4,085
0
4,085
24,492
13,068
37,560
0 52,165
17818 72,081
17,818 124,246
42%
58%
100%
7,532
107,849
27,853
92,576
38,480
74,158 216,315 564,763
**Does not include pawn shops, gym, bingo, library or beauty school
38
Anita Kramer & Associates
Table V-5
Functioning North Tryon Shopping Centers (Sugar Creek and Eastway)
Shopping Center/
Location/ Owner
Type of
Year
Gross Leasable Area Occupancy
Shopping Opened/Rehabed
(SF)
Rate
Center
Total
Asian Corners*
neighborhood
1968/ 1998
75,988
Number of
Stores
Anchor
Tenants
Occu
pied Vacant
Vacant
32,881
Strip (old Target)
1968
80,316
Strip (old Wynn- Dixie)
1968
105,660
63,386
57%
27
9 International
Market
currently not used as retail
40%
2
2 Family Dollar
Tryon Shoppes
Strip
1988
17,200
0
100% 15
0
none
5212 N. Tryon
Strip
2001
10,560
0
100%
3
0
Metrolina
Kidney Center
5210 N. Tryon
Strip
1994
14,670
0
100%
5
0 Radio Shack
Strip at Beachway
Strip
1971
10,176
0
100%
6
0 Pettis Realty
Strip at Wellingford
Convenience
1970
4,928
0
100%
4
0
Thru Food
Store
North Pointe Plaza
neighborhood
1980
79,400
1,400
98% 14
1
Big Lots
Family Dollar
(as of 11/02)
North Park**
Community
1977
181,083
53,891
70% 17
2
Bi-Lo
Kimbrells
TOTAL
Source: Field work by Anita Kramer & Associates
499,665
151,558
70%
* Vacant space includes space an estimate of businesses that are rarely open, space that is not used by the
lessor (1/2 of Dragon Rest) or are marginal users of retail space (billards, community center)
**Vacant space includes the portion of building that is owned by Kimbrell's and is not currently being used.
39
Anita Kramer & Associates
VI.
INTERVIEWS WITH RETAIL BUSINESSES
The owners and managers of 44 retail and service businesses in the Study Area were interviewed
to gain an understanding of their market, their plans and their perceptions about businesses in
this area.
A. Profile of Businesses Interviewed
Type of Business. The relative distribution by type of business interviewed is as follows:
Asian Corners:
Restaurants-9%
Specialty- 9%
General Merchandise-2%
Supermarket-2%
Personal Service-2%
Outside Asian Corners:
Commercial
Restaurants 16%
Apparel 11%
Specialty-9%
General Merchandise-5%
Personal services 5%
Furniture-5%
Groceries 2%
Auto-5%
Gym-2%
Medical –2%
Business printing-2%
Insurance-2%
Industrial-9%
Age. About 81% of the businesses in Asian Corners started at Asian Corners, so that these
businesses are no more than four or five years old. One business in Asian Corners started 13
years ago on Central Avenue, the location of another group of Asian businesses, and one
business started on Beatties Ford Road.
Of the non-industrial businesses interviewed outside of Asian Corners, 37% have been in
business for five years or less, 26% have been in business for between 6 and 10 years, 26% have
been in business for between 11 and 20 years and 11% have been in business for more than 20
years.
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Anita Kramer & Associates
Almost 80% of the non-industrial businesses outside of Asian Corners started at their current
locations. Of the 20% that started elsewhere and then moved to their current location, one-half
moved from elsewhere in the study area.
The industrial companies are all over 35 years old and started in the study area or nearby.
Future Plans. All but one of the businesses interviewed at Asian Corners plans on remaining at
their current location in the next three years. About 27% are planning or considering some
change in their current space—one would like to open a second location, one would like to
expand their space and one would like to reduce their space.
Of the non-industrial businesses interviewed outside of Asian Corners, all but one business plans
on remaining at their current location in the next three years. However, just under 30% of the
businesses are considering or planning to expand at their current location within the next three
years.
Of the industrial businesses interviewed, all plan on remaining at their current location and have
no plans to expand their space. However, it should be noted that two of the companies, both in
the cement industry, indicated a willingness to consider moving.
Employees. The number of employees in the Asian Corners businesses ranges from none, where
the owner and perhaps their spouse runs the store, to six full time employees and one or two part
time employees at the grocery store and a restaurant, each.
The number of employees in the non-industrial business outside Asian Corners ranges from one
to 12 full-time employees and eight part-time employees. The interviewed business with the
largest number of employees is a restaurant, while a furniture store has the same number of fulltime employees.
The number of employees in the industrial companies interviewed range from three to 110.
B. Geographic Source of Customers
The stores in Asian Corners almost unanimously indicated their customers come from “all over”,
including South Carolina. Further investigation indicates that, while customers may indeed
travel from South Carolina at times, it is the Asian community in Mecklenburg County that is the
core customer base. Given that there are currently two other concentrations of Asian stores
(discussed in Section XII), it is most likely that Asian Corners captures at most roughly one-third
of the Asian market. The one business that specifically mentioned the nearby neighborhoods is a
discount general merchandise store.
Of the retail stores outside Asian Corners, about three-quarters draw their entire customer base
from within about 2 miles of the study area. This includes chain stores with locations
elsewhere, thereby providing a self-limiting geographic draw, and independent stores. The stores
that draw from further away are furniture stores and a clothing store, due to their long history and
41
Anita Kramer & Associates
reputations, a religious specialty store and an ethnic restaurant that targets a very small nonAsian immigrant group.
Automobile sales and repair and a printing business draw from various places around the City,
and industrial companies draw from other companies in the area and the city, as well as
nationally and internationally.
Of the personal services, one-half draw all their customers from within two miles. Hair salons
tend to pull from a greater distance.
C.
Business Changes Over the Last Three Years
Direction of Change. Of the small group of stores in Asian Corners that have been in business
for more than three years, one-half said business has increased, one-quarter said business has
decreased, and one-quarter said business has stayed the same. (Businesses less than three years
old are excluded from this question).
Of the non-industrial businesses outside of Asian Corners, 43% said that business has decreased
over the last three years, 30% said it has stayed the same, 22% said it has increased, and 4% said
business has been up and down.
Reasons for Change. The stores that have experienced growth over the last three years in Asian
Corners attribute the growth to improvements in the area—general growth and better control of
crime. The store that has experienced a decline in business attributes it to the move from its
former location with the unexpected loss of its former customer base.
Of the reasons cited for a decrease in business over the last three years, one-half of the responses
outside of Asian Corners noted the economy, while 20% indicated the area was not attractive to
customers. Other reasons involved technological changes specific to the store’s product and the
loss of a nearby major anchor.
Of the reasons cited for an increase in business over the last three years outside of Asian Corners,
50% concerned how they do businesses, such as better advertising and merchandising. Other
answers involved the relative newness of the store and overall growth in the area.
D. Positive Points of Current Business Location
The responses regarding what factors the businesses in Asian Corners like best about their
location were fairly uniform: 67% of the responses mentioned the proximity to the highway,
high traffic volumes, visibility and/or a generally central location that is easy to access and 25%
mentioned good parking facilities. The other 8% mentioned the Asian orientation.
The responses of the non-Asian Corners businesses were more varied: 47% mentioned high
traffic volumes, visibility, the central location, and proximity to downtown; 23% mentioned easy
entrance/exit to their particular site and/or sufficient parking; 20% mentioned something specific
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to their business such as the nearby Hispanic population or the space the business occupies. The
other 10% mentioned a range of other factors..
E. Negative Points of Current Location
The responses regarding what factors the businesses in Asian Corners like least about their
location were fairly uniform: 38% mentioned the lack of enough open stores and/or customers
and 31% mentioned physical problems with the building (leaks), parking lot (pot holes), and
general unattractiveness of the mall. Other answers concerned the dust from the cement
companies across Sugar Creek on windy days, poor visibility, and the fact that there was nothing
that was negative.
The responses of the non-Asian businesses were more varied. Interestingly, 32% indicated that
there was nothing negative about their current location. Another 26% of the responses
concerned the homeless, crime and the negative image of the area; 13% of the responses
concerned low visibility of their particular location; 10% concerned lack of enough businesses.
F.
Recommendations for Change
All of the responses by Asian Corners businesses about the changes they would like to see in the
North Tryon/Sugar Creek area focus on Asian Corners, itself: 44% mentioned the need for
physical improvements such as fixing and cleaning the parking lot, as well the need for a large
sign naming the stores. About 38% mentioned the need for more businesses in order to attract
more customers and more customers, in general, while 13% mention the need for better security.
Businesses outside Asian Corners have similar recommendations: 42% of the responses concern
the need for physical improvements to clean up and beautify the area and 42% of the responses
concern the need for more businesses. The balance of the responses concern a wide range of
issues
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VII. VISUAL AND PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
Overall, the study area presents a visually chaotic image due to several factors: a mix of unused
large structures, small older structures, and deteriorated parking lots on the old Tryon Mall site; a
mix of small, dated structures amid some small newer structures outside the old Tryon Mall site;
a cement company on Sugar Creek, and; industrial areas that include a number of older buildings
and parcels used for outdoor storage space.
Still, there are currently two relatively uniform segments, both on North Tryon but on either end
of the study area. The north side of North Tryon, between Craighead and Sugar Creek (Segment
1 on the map in the Executive Summary), is unified by the large institutional uses—in fact 90%
of the land is occupied by institutional uses including a church, residential facility, schools,
library (under construction), and police station (under construction). All existing institutional
uses are well maintained and the 100-year old Sugaw Creek Presbyterian Church is particularly
unique and attractive. Based on discussions with the existing institutional uses and the current
construction activity, this area is expected to retain its image as an institutional node. Of the 5.4
acres not in institutional use, 4.8 acres are vacant or are occupied by used car lots. These are
contiguous parcels in between Hope Haven and the library site.
The south side of North Tryon, just east of Eastway (Segment 7), is visually unified by North
Park Mall, North Pointe Plaza, and related outparcels—the only uses in the sub-area. The
structures are well maintained and easily accessed by the high traffic volumes in the area. The
area is expected to continue as a retail node.
The rest of the discussion addresses the remaining five areas of the study area.
On the north side of North Tryon, between Sugar Creek and Eastway (Segment 2)
This segment of the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area comprises the frontage parcels along
North Tryon, with residential development abutting these parcels to the north. Although the total
square footage of the structures is predominantly commercial structures, conditions vary widely
and contribute to an inconsistent image. The numerous small commercial structures range from
well maintained to older and dated and are interspersed along the segment. In addition, there is a
trailer truck repair business with a large number of trailer trucks parked on the lot, two
deteriorated single-family houses, and three auto-related businesses with numerous cars parked
on their lots.
The trailer truck repair business has a particularly jarring impact due to large size of the trucks
parked side- by-side perpendicular to, and directly on, the property line along the sidewalk. This
is exacerbated by the fact that the parcel has the longest frontage of all parcels in this segment
and it is dominantly located at a curve in North Tryon.
Contributing to the negative visual image that these various uses convey is the fact that the 55
acres in this segment of the study area are owned by 28 different owners. The largest parcel is
9.7 acres and is also the only vacant parcel. Located at the east end of this segment at Eastway,
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it wraps around two parcels—one with a house, one with an older car wash. Together, these
parcels provide 14 contiguous acres.
On the south side of North Tryon, between Craighead and Sugar Creek (Segment 3)
The parcels fronting the south side of North Tryon, between Craighead and Sugar Creek, are
dominated by used car lots: Almost 40% of the 16 frontage acres are occupied by used car
businesses. Contributing to the negative visual image is the small size of the parcels—the 16
acres are under 15 different ownerships. (It should be noted that one parcel of .96 acres is a
cemetery that belongs to the Sugaw Creek Presbyterian Church).
Abutting the backside of these frontage parcels are two cement companies, whose properties
extend from Craighead at Raleigh Street to Sugar Creek at Greensboro Street. The concrete
company off of Craighead—Concrete Supply Company—generates fairly constant truck traffic
as poured concrete is transported from the site in cement mixers to construction sites. The
concrete company off of Sugar Creek—Metromont Pre-stress—has a large number of industrial
structures that dominates the viewline along Sugar Creek in that vicinity.
The two concrete companies occupy a total of 29 contiguous acres. Including a small parcel
occupied by an older restaurant adjacent to these parcels, there are a total of almost 30
contiguous parcels. Concrete Supply Company also owns 4.9 acres across Raleigh Street
resulting in almost 35 acres under essentially two owners.
The parcels that extend from Craighead to Sugar Creek between Raleigh Street and the railroad
tracks provide 17 acres under four owners. One parcel of 3.2 acres is used primarily for open-air
storage of various industrial parts and materials, with the resulting appearance of a junkyard,
while another parcel of 4.8 acres has old, rusting metal structures. These two parcels are visible
only from Craighead and therefore do not currently dominate the image of the study area,
however; as development interest in NoDa extends eastward, these parcels will exert a stronger
influence. The other two parcels, comprising a total of 9.1 acres, are occupied by 50-year old
structures, the larger of which does not appear to be well maintained.
The remaining land is ringed by Greensboro, Raleigh and Sugar Creek and is occupied primarily
by substantial industrial structures in good condition and a medical building in excellent
condition.
On the south side of North Tryon, the old Tryon Mall site (Segment 4)
This following factors result in a visually unattractive environment, at best, and an appearance of
abandonment of some structures and areas, at worst: A main building that includes a large
amount of industrial and vacant space with poorly maintained facades; a parking lot that appears
disproportionately large relative to its use and with large sections in total disrepair; small,
freestanding structures with poorly maintained or dated facades; a burned-out theater, and; a
dated (forty-year old) freestanding supermarket.
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Contributing to the negative image is the fact that the 37 acres is split between seven different
owners, three of whom control different portion of the main building.
The façade of the mid-section of the main building—Asian Corners—and the good condition of
its immediate parking area provide a positive contrast to the rest of the site. However, its impact
on the whole site is mitigated by the extent of the unattractive surrounding conditions, its
location far from the street, and the lack of a street-side sign that provides information about the
businesses in Asian Corners. Such a sign is expected by shoppers and signifies that this is, in
fact, a viable shopping center.
(See Section V-B for details on this site).
On the south side of North Tryon, East of the old Tryon Mall to Burrough Street and extending
south to the railroad tracks (Segment 5)
This area is almost entirely industrial and includes parcels accessed via Raleigh Street off of
Sugar Creek and via Dorton Street off of North Tryon.
The parcels off of Raleigh Street are occupied by older, dated structures but appear in relatively
good condition. There is some outside storage and some unimproved or minimally improved
parcels that are used for truck storage. In fact, almost 32 of the 47 acres off of Raleigh Street are
unimproved parcels or have little improvements relative to their land area. The most visible
building from Sugar Creek is an 88,000 square foot, 50-year old building directly fronting Sugar
Creek which is currently vacant.
The parcels off of Dorton Street are occupied by somewhat newer, pre-fab warehouse structures
in good condition. The parcels fronting on North Tryon are occupied by auto service, some retail
and a self-storage business, all with an overall good appearance. The one exception is an
industrial parcel that fronts on North Tryon—it is the oldest structure in this area, vacant, and in
poor condition.
On the south side of North Tryon, from Burrough Street to Eastway (Segment 6)
This segment of the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area comprises the frontage parcels along
North Tryon, parcels accessed by Bingham Drive between North Tryon and Curtiswood Drive,
and frontage parcels along Eastway between North Tryon and Curtiswood Drive.
Almost one-half of the auto service businesses in the study area are located in this segment,
primarily along North Tryon. A range of various types of commercial uses are also located
along North Tryon, including a union office, a medical facility, a go-cart track and a strip
shopping center. A number of these buildings are well maintained and are visually attractive.
However, due to the generally small size of the buildings and the poorer appearance of some
older structures, the North Tryon frontage does not present a coherent image.
The parcels that front on Bingham Drive are vacant, providing about 5.6 acres of unimproved
land.
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The parcels along Eastway are a mix of two restaurants, a church, a vacant parcel that was
formerly occupied by a gas station, and two old residential structures. These latter three parcels
comprise about 2.6 acres and abut residential neighborhoods in the back of the parcels.
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VIII. ASSESMENT OF TRANSPORTATION /ACCESS
North Tryon is a direct route into/from downtown Charlotte and Sugar Creek is a north/south
route, merging with Eastway and Wendover Road, south of the Study Area.
Traffic counts in the area vary considerably. Average daily traffic (ADT) counts recorded by the
City of Charlotte Transportation Department between January 2001 and February 2002 show that
traffic volume is highest north of North Tryon on Sugar Creek and east of Sugar Creek on North
Tryon:
North Tryon…
between Craighead and Sugar Creek—29,300 ADT
between Sugar Creek and Eastway—37,000 ADT
just east of Eastway—50,400 ADT
Sugar Creek…
just north of The Plaza—27,800 ADT
just north of Cinderella—35,900 ADT
These traffic counts compare favorably to those in other commercial areas:
Central Avenue, near Eastland Mall—27,300 ADT
North Tryon, north and south of Harris Boulevard—34,200 and 31,400 ADT
University City Boulevard, north and south of Harris Boulevard—48,600 and
40,600 ADT
Access to a major highway is almost 1.5 miles to the north and was mentioned by several Asian
retail businesses and most industrial businesses as beneficial to their businesses.
The study area is currently served by two bus routes: Route 11 travels along North Tryon,
between Uptown and Arrowhead Drive, as well as providing service to Hidden Valley and other
neighborhoods between Sugar Creek, I-85 and North Tryon; Route 39 travels along Eastway to
North Tryon, connecting UNCC with Uptown via Trade and Central.
On September 18, 2002, the Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS) recommended that the
northeast corridor include light rail transit from downtown to past the University. As the
recommendation now stands, a light rail line would begin in Center City along the North
Carolina Railroad alignment, adjacent to the Norfolk-Southern Railroad “mainline”. The light
rail line would cross over the Norfolk-Southern line near Sugar Creek and proceed north on
North Tryon to the University area. As of this writing, major system-wide strategic and funding
issues are under review. Further clarification of the alignment will most likely take place during
the environmental impact and design phases.
Potential transit stops are at Sugar Creek and/or Eastway. Given the need of the light rail to
cross over the Norfolk-Southern Railroad “main line” in order to access North Tryon, it appears
that the Sugar Creek stop could be at the intersection of North Tryon or somewhere between that
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intersection and the railroad tracks. Related issues that will impact the study area concern: the
width of the rail right-of-way; the extent to which the street will be narrowed or property will be
taken along the route; the extent to which vehicular turns into properties on North Tryon will be
limited due to the rail line.
The time frame, as it is now projected by CATS, is for the completion of the light rail system
from Center City to 36th Street by 2012 and from 36th Street to the end, within the subsequent
five years.
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IX.
INTERVIEWS WITH SHOPPERS IN THE NORTH TRYON/SUGAR CREEK
STUDY AREA
Intercept surveys were conducted along North Tryon in June and July 2002. The purpose of the
intercept survey is to learn more about shoppers in the area, such as where they live and what
their shopping habits are.
The surveys were conducted at various locations long North Tryon in order to obtain a cross
section of shoppers: Asian Corners, Park N Shop, Radio Shack, Tryon Shoppes, North Park
Mall, North Pointe Mall, and Chicken Box. The latter three locations were included because of
their close proximity to the study area. In addition, interviews were conducted with residents of
Hidden Valley.
A.
Profile of Persons Interviewed
The persons interviewed while shopping fall into three categories:
Those who live fairly close-in to the study area in an area approximately bounded by I-85
to the north, 25th Street to the west, The Plaza to the south and Newell Hickory Grove
Road to the intersection of North Tryon and University City Road to the east. These
account for 49% of those interviewed while shopping.
Those who live somewhat further out from the Study Area, an area north of I-85,
extending between the Sugar Creek corridor and W.T. Harris and the University area,
north to the Mallard Creek area. These account for 18% of those interviewed while
shopping.
Those who live in various other locations throughout the metropolitan area. These
account for 33% of those interviewed while shopping.
In addition to those interviewed while shopping, a fourth group of residents of Hidden Valley
also responded to the survey.
B.
Shopping Patterns of Persons Interviewed
Shoppers were asked where they most frequently shopped for the range of items specified below.
Results are reported in terms of total locations mentioned as some people shop regularly in more
than one location, while others do not shop for a particular items at all (such as videos).
Of the close-in group, 11% do not shop at all in the study area or immediately adjacent to it.
These 11% patronize grocery stores and drug stores in their immediate neighborhoods, in the
University area or on Sugar Creek, north of I-85.
Of the group that lives north of I-85, only a relatively small number (about 20%) patronize stores
in the study area, with Blockbuster and restaurants (non-Asian) mentioned most often. Other
stores mentioned less often are beauty supply, Family Dollar, Payless Electronics and a pool hall.
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This group does most of their grocery shopping and drug store purchases and video rentals
closest to where they live and their bigger purchases in the University area and Concord Mills,
including hardware, clothing, and electronic goods. Eastland Mall was mentioned most often for
specialty items although it was occasionally mentioned for clothing
Of the group that lives in various other locations throughout the metropolitan area, the stores
they primarily patronize in, or near, the study area are Chicken Box, Simply Fashions and the
International Market. Other stores mentioned less often include Radio Shack, Asian Restaurants
(both in Asian Corners and in other locations), a gym. and a barbershop. Still, as many
respondents indicated they do not shop regularly in the Study Area or nearby as indicated they
do. This group appeared to do most of their regular shopping in areas closest to where they live
and their bigger purchases primarily in the University area and Eastland Mall. Concord Mills
and South Park Mall were also mentioned.
Convenience goods
•
Drug stores
Hidden Valley residents: 50% shop at Eckerd in the study area
29% shop at CVS in Derita
14% shop at Wal-Mart near the University
•
Close-in residents:
54% shop in the study area, primarily at Eckerd
in the study area but also at Bi-Lo on Eastway
21% shop at the CVS on The Plaza
11% shop at K-Mart or Eckerd near the University
North of I-85:
50% shop at Eckerd or CVS on Sugar Creek north
of I-85
30% shop at various places near the University
Grocery Stores
Hidden Valley residents:
Close in:
North of I-85:
33% shop at Food Lion in Derita
27% shop at Bi-Lo on Eastway
20% shop in the University area
20% shop at the Harris Teeter at Harris
Boulevard and Mallard Creek.
30% shop at Bi Lo on Eastway
19% shop at Park N Shop in the study area
15% shop at Food Lion on The Plaza
11% shop in the University area
7% shop at the International Market.
40% shop at Food Lion in Derita
45% shop at various stores on WT Harris
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and the University area
.
•
•
Videos
Hidden Valley residents:
91% rent at Blockbusters on N Tryon/Eastway.
Close in:
53% rent at Blockbusters on N Tryon/Eastway
21% rent at Blockbusters on Sharon Amity
21% rent at Blockbusters in the University area.
North of I-85:
78% rent at Blockbusters in the University area
22% rent at Blockbusters on N Tryon/Eastway
Sit-down restaurants:
Hidden Valley residents:
40% mentioned restaurants in the University area
20% mentioned restaurants in the study
area (mostly outside of Asian Corners)
7% mentioned a restaurant at North Park Plaza
the balance mentioned various other locations
Close in:
56% mentioned restaurants in various places
outside the study area and university area
24% mentioned Chinese restaurants in the study
area but outside of Asian Corners
12% mentioned the University area
6% mentioned non-Chinese restaurants along
Eastway
North of I-85:
78% mentioned restaurants in the University area
22% mentioned restaurants in the Study area
(non-Asian restaurants)
Shopper Goods
•
Women’s clothing:
Hidden Valley residents:
Close in:
46% mentioned Eastland Mall
The balance mentioned various other locations
outside the study area
59% mentioned Eastland Mall
14% mentioned Concord Mills
14% mentioned the University area
4% mentioned North Pointe Plaza
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North of I-85:
•
•
•
50% mentioned Concord Mills
38% mentioned Eastland Mall
Men’s clothing:
Hidden Valley residents:
33% mentioned North Park Mall
25% mentioned the University area
25% mentioned Eastland Mall
13% mentioned South Park Mall
Close in:
52% mentioned Eastland Mall
15% mentioned the University area
7% mentioned Concord Mills
7% mentioned North Park Mall
North of I-85:
40% mentioned Eastland Mall
30% mentioned Concord Mills
30% mentioned various other locations
Electronic goods/appliances
Hidden Valley residents:
92% mentioned the University area (primarily
Circuit City and Best Buy, but also
Wal-Mart, K Mart)
Close in:
41% mentioned the University area
14% mentioned Radio Shack in the study area
14% mentioned Independence Boulevard
the balance mentioned locations around the city
North of I-85:
80% mentioned the University area
20% mentioned Concord Mills
Specialty items:
Hidden Valley residents:
54% mentioned the University area
31% mentioned Eastland Mall
the balance mentioned various locations outside
the study area
Close in:
39% mentioned Eastland Mall
13% mentioned North Park Mall
13% mentioned Concord Mills
13% mentioned the University area
North of I-85:
40% mentioned Eastland Mall
20% mentioned Concord Mall
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the balance mentioned various locations outside
the study area
Heavy Commercial Goods
•
Hardware
Hidden Valley residents:
Close in:
North of I-85:
C.
69% mentioned stores in the University area
primarily Home Depot
31% mentioned Faulk Brothers on North Tryon,
east of the study area
70% mentioned stores in the University
25% mentioned Faulk Brothers
100% mentioned store sin the University area
Positive Points About Shopping in the Study Area
Of the group that lives in Hidden Valley, 69% mentioned convenience when asked what they
liked best about shopping in the study area. About 15% said they liked nothing about the area.
Of the balance, one person mentioned fresh seafood at Asian Corners and one person does not
shop there at all.
Of the group that lives close in, 47% of the answers were ‘convenience’, 28% mentioned a
particular store or shopping center: Family Dollar, clothing stores at North Point, Big Lots at
North Point, 2-Face Gym, North Park. 13% mentioned they like nothing about the area.
Of the group that lives north of I-85, 60% mentioned they only shop at a specific store when
asked what they liked best about shopping in the study area: Tisun Beauty Supply, Family
Dollar, pool hall, Payless electronics, Heavenly Barber Shop, The Square. About 20%
mentioned ethnicity (this was not only at Asian Corners). Only 20% mentioned convenience and
variety.
Of the group that lives in various places around the City, answers were more varied: 31%
mentioned a specific store—barber shop, Chicken Box, Asian Market, Two-Face Gym; 26%
mentioned the good prices, 21% the easy access or convenience; 11% said they do not shop
there.
D.
Negative Points About Shopping in the Study Area
Of the group that lives in Hidden Valley, 53% mentioned that there is not enough variety and
29% mentioned the poor condition of stores and the general area.
Of the group that lives close-in, 31% mentioned that there is not enough variety and 27%
mentioned the poor condition of the general area. An additional 19% mentioned crime and lack
of safety.
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Of the group that lives north of I-85, 50% mentioned that there is not enough variety and 40%
mentioned the poor condition of the area.
Of the group that lives in various places around the City, 39% mentioned the poor condition of
the general area and 22% mentioned the lack of variety. An additional 17% mentioned crime
and lack of safety.
E.
Changes That Would Influence the Respondent to Do More Shopping in the Study
Area.
About 43% of all responses (including all groups), indicated that more stores, more variety,
and/or better quality stores would influence them to shop more frequently in the Study Area.
The most frequently mentioned stores they would like to see included a major grocery store, a
larger Family Dollar, more restaurants, and a store like Target or Wal-Mart.
Approximately 35% indicated a wish for a an improved physical environment, mentioning
parking lots in need of repair, rehab of buildings, and a clean-up of the area in general.
Almost 13% cited a wish for increased safety.
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X.
RETAIL MARKET DELINIATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
A. Delineation of Geographic Area of Analysis
The geographic area from which retail facilities obtain the majority of their support may be
governed by a number of interacting factors, including accessibility, limitations of driving time
and distance, the extent of physical barriers, and the presence and location(s) of competitive
facilities. In the case of the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area it is the location of competitive
facilities, and the number and size of competitive facilities in each location, which defines the
geographic area from which retail facilities draw support. The location of competitive facilities
has, in turn, been influenced by the population growth in areas other than those surrounding the
study area. Despite the overall population growth east of Interstate I-77 (to the south, east and
north), growth has not taken place uniformly throughout the area: Population east of I-77 in
Mecklenburg County has increased by 94% (almost 251,000 people) since 1980, while the
population west of I-77 has increased by 28% (almost 39,000) people. The rate of growth east of
I-77 has been steady over the last two decades, with a population increase of 38% during the
1980’s and 41% during the 1990’s. However, the population within a two-mile radius of the
intersection of North Tryon and Sugar Creek has increased by only 8.7% since 1990. This is in
sharp contrast to the two-mile radius from the intersection of WT Harris Boulevard and
University City Boulevard, in which population grew by 65% during the same time.
Interestingly, although the rate of growth is strikingly divergent, the total numbers of residents
within two-miles of the study area exceeds that within two miles of WT Harris and University
City Boulevards by 14,000 people. This additional number of people provides about
$100,000,000 more in buying power, even with a significantly lower per capita income. This
underscores several issues that are typical in this situation: stores are attracted not only by
absolute numbers, but given the choice, by growth activity, available land, and proximity to
future potential growth.
There are three strong competitive concentrations: to the northeast in the University area and in
Concord: to the south along Central Avenue, Albemarle Road, and Independence Boulevard; to
the southwest along Sharon Road and in the Pineville area. Each of these areas has a super
regional mall with at least three department stores and/or a super community mall and power
center. The following describes the size, type and distance from the study area of the major
competitive facilities:
Northeast major facilities:
4 miles—The Commons@ Chancellor Place, 341,860 square feet on 80 acres,
power center.
4 miles--Target Shopping Center, about 250,000 square feet, power center.
Plus other centers with big boxes.
5 miles—Shoppes at University Place, 748,000 square feet on 77 acres, super
community.
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9.2 miles—Concord Mills, 1.4 million square feet, super community center.
South major facilities:
3.8 miles—Eastway Crossing, 254,608 square feet on 35 acres, with Winn
Dixie and Wal-Mart, super community shopping center.
5. 3 miles—Eastland Mall, 1.06 million square feet on 72 acres, super regional
shopping Center.
Southwest major facilities:
9.8 miles—South Park Mall, 1.24 million square feet on 100 acres, super
regional shopping Center.
North planned major facility:
9 miles—Planned at I-77 and Reames Road, super regional center.
In addition to the major competitive areas in the larger area, there are numerous neighborhood
and community shopping centers and free-standing stores serving areas closer to the study area:
East local-serving facilities:
4.0 miles—Town Center Business Center, 160,954 square feet, with Harris Teeter
and Eckerd , community shopping center.
5.4 miles—Mallard Point Shopping Center, 160,000 square feet on 17 acres, with
Food Lion, Kerr Drug and Kohl’s, community shopping center.
North local-serving facilities:
2.3 miles—Eckerd (free-standing) at Sugar Creek and Graham.
3.0 miles—Crossroads Shopping Center, 147,000 square feet with Food Lion and
CVS, community shopping center.
4.2 miles—Eckerd at WT Harris and Mallard Creek (freestanding).
4.9 miles—Harris Teeter at WT Harris and Mallard Creek (freestanding).
South local-serving facilities:
1.5 miles—Shoppes at Citiside, 75,500 square feet, with Bi-Lo, neighborhood
shopping center.
1.5 miles—Food Lion (free-standing) on the Plaza at Matheson.
2.0 miles—CVS (free-standing) on the Plaza east of Matheson.
3.8 miles—Eastway Square, 135,762 square feet on 14 acres, with Food Lion,
community shopping center.
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Based on the competitive shopping areas, it appears that the Primary Market Area (PMA), or the
strongest source of demand for retail goods and services in the study area, including North Park
and North Pointe, is as follows: north to I-85; west to 25th Street; south to Shamrock on the west
side of Eastway and continuing east from the Eastway/Shamrock intersection to connect with
The Plaza where it makes a right angle turn, and; east to Newell Hickory Grove Road and to the
intersection of North Tryon and University City Road. This would include support for drug
store, grocery store, men’s and women’s clothing, specialty, and restaurants. Although this area
is the source of core support for the study area, stores in the study area most likely would not
capture all of the buying power of the PMA’s residents as it is impacted by the proximity of the
local-serving facilities noted above.
Based on the results of the merchant surveys regarding their geographic source of customers, it
appears that the Secondary Market Area (SMA) for retail goods and services varies widely
depending on the particular store. For this reason, we estimate support from a SMA by assuming
a percentage increment above the demand from the PMA. The SMA serves as an additional
source of demand for restaurants, specialty, and clothing but serves as a much less substantial
source of demand for other types of goods and services, such as supermarkets and drugstores.
A separate secondary market also exists for Asian-oriented grocery stores, restaurants, and
specialty stores. This market is not directly geographically-based and will be assessed separately
based on the Asian population in the metropolitan area.
B.
Demographics
The strength of the market ultimately depends on the total purchasing power, which is derived
from population size and income, discussed below.
1.Population
The 2000 household population in the PMA was 37,122. The population in 2002 is estimated to
be 38,288 persons based on residential units that opened and were occupied since the 2000
Census. Assuming that vacant units recently built are absorbed and that the remaining units of
currently active developments are built and occupied, the population in 2007 is projected to be
40,756. Further, assuming that residential development occurs on the 89.2-acre parcel
recommended in Section IV, and that a portion of residential projects now under discussion
actually are built, the population in 2010 is projected to reach 42,733.
2. Income
Income data was derived from several sources. One source is the Census, which measures
money income. Money income includes: 1) money, wages, or salary; 2) net income from nonfarm self –employment; 3) net income from farm self-employment; 4) social security or railroad
retirement; 5) supplemental security insurance; 6) public assistance or welfare payments; 7)
interest; 8) dividends, income from estates or trusts, or net rental income; 9) veterans’ payments
or unemployment and worker’s compensation; 10) private pensions or government employee
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pensions, and; 11) alimony or child support, regular contributions from persons not living in the
household, and other periodic income.
Another measure of per capita income is total personal income which is more broadly defined
and includes fringe benefits such as health and retirement funding, imputed income from interest
and rent, and direct payment to medical providers by government. The rationale for including
these items is that they represent real increases in the economic status of recipients. The Bureau
of Economic Analysis provides data on personal income.
Neither money income nor personal income is a perfect measure of the potential level of
spending. Money income most likely understates buying power due to exclusion of certain
sources of income. Personal income most likely overstates buying power because some of the
imputed income sources do not impact spending decisions. Consequently, for the purpose of
retail analysis, an average of money and personal income is used. The outcome of this approach
is an estimated 1999 per capita income of $17,703 in the Primary Market Area. Adjusting for
annual real increases, we arrive at an estimated 2002 per capita income of $18,511.
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XI. ANALYSIS OF MARKET AREA DEMAND FOR RETAIL GOODS AND
SERVICES
Future demand for retail space in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area, generated by the
Primary and Secondary markets, is projected using a forecasting model that takes into account
existing retail activity in the area, the area’s present and projected population and income levels,
and shopping patterns. The model follows these steps:
A.
Project total market area retail sales demand;
B.
Disaggregate demand by retail category;
C.
Project the capture rate of market area retail demand by study area establishments
(including North Park Plaza and North Pointe Mall);
D.
Distribute demand to various types of retail centers;
E.
Project sales per square foot to convert potential retail sales volumes into net supportable
retail space;
F.
Compute supportable services space;
G.
Compute supportable retail space by type of retail center;
C.
I.
Compare to existing space;
Recommendations.
The calculations are shown in Appendix A, Tables A1-A16. A more detailed discussion of this
model, explaining input assumptions and calculated outputs, follows.
A. PROJECT TOTAL MARKET AREA RETAIL SALES DEMAND (Table A1-A3)
Total retail sales demand is based on market area population and total income (discussed in
Section X) as well as the proportion of total income spent on retail goods.
Historical time series data for total personal income and total retail sales in North Carolina and in
other states throughout the country show that the equivalent of 37% to 39% of total personal
income is spent on retail goods. While resident households are the primary sources for retail
sales, businesses, institutions, government and tourists also make retail purchases. After these
influences are accounted for, the actual proportion of resident income allocated for retail
purchases falls within the range of 30% to 34% depending on income level. In this analysis a
34% factor is applied to resident income, with additional business expenditures increasing the
effective retail demand to 38%.
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B. DISAGGREGATE DEMAND BY RETAIL CATEGORY (Tabled A4 and A5)
Based upon North Carolina retail sales distribution in 1997 as reported in the U.S. Census of
Retail Trade, the income available for purchase of retail goods can be allocated among three
general classes of retail activities, with 11 specific expenditure categories. The major areas of
retail expenditures are: shopper goods--32% (includes apparel, general merchandise, home
furnishings/appliances, and miscellaneous specialty goods; convenience goods--33% (includes
drugs, food, liquor and eating and drinking away from home); and heavy commercial goods-35% (includes building materials/farm implements, autos and auto parts, and service station
purchases).
C. PROJECT THE CAPTURE OF MARKET AREA RETAIL DEMAND (Tables A6 and A7)
Determining the appropriate capture rate for retail facilities in the study area (including North
Pointe and North Park) requires analysis of existing capture rates and an understanding of
purchasing patterns by retail category:
Shopper goods such as apparel, general merchandise and specialty items are most frequently
purchased in regional (or super regional) malls. On average, an estimated 70% to 85% of the
purchases of these goods take place in regional malls. The results of the intercept surveys reflect
this pattern but, in addition to Eastland Mall, major destinations also include super community
shopping centers such as Concord Mills and centers in the University area. This reflects the
strong competition created by the concentration of super community centers to the northeast,
drawing similar market support as regional and super regional malls.
The balance of purchases (15%-30%) for shopper goods takes place in various settings outside
the malls and super community centers. The response from the intercept surveys, along with the
inventory of existing businesses, points to a slightly higher than average ability of the study area
to capture purchases for furniture and appliance, and apparel. Assuming that this current
strength can be maintained and expanded, a slightly higher than average capture rate of 35% is
used for furniture and appliances and 30% is used for apparel. A 20% capture rate for general
merchandise and specialty stores are more typical for purchases outside of regional malls and
major retail concentrations.
Convenience goods are usually purchased very close to home in neighborhood and community
centers. It is expected that close to 100% of the purchase of these goods by residents of the
Primarily Market Area could take place within the PMA. However, supermarkets and
drugstores are already located in areas of the PMA that are outside the study area or in areas
relatively close to the PMA. For these reasons, the capture rate for food stores and drugstores in
the study area is estimated at 30%.
The exception to the initial assumption that 100% of convenience goods are typically purchases
close to home is the demand for eating and drinking establishments. Although there is a certain
portion of the demand that takes place close to home, a capture rate must always take into
account “destination” facilities and the need for variety. For this reason, the capture rate for
eating and drinking facilities is estimated at 60%.
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Heavy Commercial goods. The intercept survey indicates there is a segment of shoppers that
prefer an existing hardware store on North Tryon in the PMA, just east of the study area, over the
“big box” facilities such as Lowe’s and Home Depot. Still, there is a much larger segment of
shoppers who prefer the big box stores. Given the variety offered by the larger stores, it is likely
that the majority of hardware and building materials from the PMA will be made at these
locations. For these reasons, a potential capture rate of 10% is used for hardware and building
material purchases. (It should be noted that this capture rate results in total supportable hardware
and building material space within ten years that is more than double that of the existing
hardware stores in the PMA).
Capture of automotive purchases, which include auto parts, as well as dealer sales is estimated at
a higher rate of 25% due to the existing concentration of automotive parts stores and used-car
dealers.
D. DISTRIBUTE DEMAND TO VARIOUS TYPES OF RETAIL CENTERS (Table A8)
A percentage distribution of retail expenditures by type of retail center follows the existing
pattern of distribution in suburbanized areas. Shopper goods are concentrated for the most part
in regional centers, whereas convenience goods are found primarily in neighborhood and
community centers. Heavy commercial uses are primarily in freestanding locations and special
clusters such as auto malls. However, there is considerable locational crossover among various
retail sub-categories. For example, a portion of shopper goods are found in community,
neighborhood and freestanding centers rather than regional malls (especially home furnishings
and appliances); likewise, some convenience goods are found in freestanding and regional
facilities rather than community or neighborhood centers (especially eating and drinking
establishments).
Table A8 shows the distribution of retail expenditures outside of regional (and super regional)
malls.
E. PROJECT SALES PER SQUARE FOOT STANDARDS, WHICH TRANSLATE
POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES INTO SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE (Tables A9-A12)
Projected sales volume requirements per square foot of retail space for each retail category and
by retail location are derived from ULI-produced median sales standards for various center types.
These standards are then applied to total demand for retail sales for each retail category in order
to convert sales to total supportable square feet of retail space.
There is considerable variation between sales requirements for various retail establishments.
Supermarkets require the greatest sales volume, targeted here at $450 per square foot. In
contrast, general merchandise stores will achieve projected volumes of $200 to $225 per square
foot.
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F. COMPUTE SUPPORTABLE SERVICES SPACE (Tables A13 and A14)
Commercial service characteristically found in shopping center locations are considered here as
they are not included in the retail square footage projections above. Commercial services
typically located in shopping centers include personal services, business services and
entertainment outlets. For the purpose of this study, services space demand is projected as a
percent of retail space demand. It varies by type of retail facility:
Additional Space
Retail Location
Allocated to Services
Community/Neighborhood
Freestanding
20%
15%
G. ADJUST FOR A SECONDARY MARKET AREA (Table A15)
It is likely that the PMA will capture at least some purchasing power from residents of areas
outside of the PMA. The high level of traffic in particular on North Tryon and Sugar Creek
suggests that a SMA exists for the study area.
The capture of purchasing power from the SMA is represented as a percentage share of total
square footage. In this case, a share of 20% is applied to the square footage.
H. COMPARE TO EXISTING SPACE
Table A-16 re-groups the supportable space into the eleven categories of goods and the services
in order to compare supportable activity to existing activity. Several observations can be made:
The above analysis incorporates standard buying patterns and does not include
specialized buying patterns within the Asian community. (This will be addressed
in the next section).
A total of 394,000 square feet of retail and service space is currently supportable
in the North Tryon/Sugar Creek study area. There are now 430,000 square feet of
occupied commercial space, not including Asian-oriented businesses at Asian
Corners. (Also, excluded are pawn shops, liquor stores, service stations, check
cashing and day care services).
The 430,000 square feet of occupied square footage includes adjustments for
poorly performing stores identified through discussions with the owners and
others familiar with certain businesses—that is, the full square footage is not used.
Despite these individual adjustments, it is likely that the total square footage of
fully utilized space in the study area is even less than 430,000 square feet. In fact,
assuming that a minimum of 10% of the space is underutilized, we arrive at
387,000 square feet of fully-utilized occupied space.
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The utilized, occupied space of 387,000 square feet then approximates the total
supportable square footage of 393,000 square feet.
Despite this apparent close match between market demand and active commercial
space, a closer look at the make-up of supportable and occupied space by type
shows an uneven pattern in types of available stores.
Auto-related businesses are unusually concentrated in the study area—automotive
services, automotive parts and used car dealers.
At the same time, there are three categories of retail activity that are currently
under-represented in the study area—restaurants, food stores, and hardware/home
improvement stores. That is, there is additional square footage that could be
supported in the study area.
The reasons that existing space is not utilized for supportable additional retail
space are varied and include many issues discussed in previous sections. Most
important is the small amount of residential growth in the Primary Market Area,
at the time that there has been significant growth on east of I-77 overall.
Commercial growth has occurred closer to areas where residential growth has
occurred—further out where large amounts of vacant parcels are available for
both residential and commercial development and, at the same time, commercial
activity can depend on future residential growth.
Other factors further accentuate the impact of little market growth, mostly the
negative visual image of many potential commercial locations:
at the old Tryon Mall (other than Asian Corners) due to a mix of vacant space,
industrial space, poorly maintained facades and parking lots, some small
structures and dated structures; on the north side of North Tryon between Sugar
Creek and Eastway due to a long strip of old and some very small structures with
newer structures, as well as a prominent industrial use; on the south side of North
Tryon between Burroughs and Eastway a strip with some small buildings and
poorly maintained buildings.
Further, the interior commercial space at both Asian Corners and North Park Mall
is at a distinct disadvantage, given unattractive setting of the more visible
locations. While interior commercial space is not the norm currently, there are
places where it can work. These are typically strong markets and large facilities
such as regional or super regional malls.
There are 226,000 square feet of vacant commercial space and approximately
70,000 square feet of underutilized space—a total of 296,000 square feet of space
not currently in full use.
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By 2012, a total of 511,000 square feet of supportable square feet is projected, an
additional 117,000 square feet over the current supportable square footage of
394,000.
Even with the projected increase in demand, all existing space would not be
needed and 172,000 square feet would remain vacant.
I. RECOMMENDATIONS
There are two viable potential commercial nodes within the Study Area—the existing node
formed by North Park Mall and North Pointe Plaza, and the intersection of North Tryon and
Sugar Creek. Well-defined, up-to-date commercial nodes are conducive to strengthening
existing stores and attracting more variety.
The North Park Mall/North Pointe Plaza location benefits from the highest traffic volume in the
study area due to traffic on Eastway as well as North Tryon. The parcels are already an
appropriate size for the market and are in close proximity to new development at Citiside, the
redevelopment of the old Zayre’s site, and a potential new residential development on the 89.2
acre site discussed in Section III. A transit station is projected to be located at the intersection of
North Tryon and Eastway. Further, the existing buildings on these parcels are conducive to
updating through renovation, as opposed to complete redevelopment. We recommend that total
revitalized commercial space remain at the current level of 280,000 square feet.
The intersection of North Tryon and Sugar Creek provides a second strong location in the study
area due to the high traffic volumes on, and accessibility from, both streets, as well as sufficient
land potentially available for new commercial structures (to replace the existing buildings with
the possibility of incorporating some of the old buildings). In addition, there is sufficient land to
support new residential development, as discussed in Section III, and a projected transit station
nearby. We recommend that total commercial space at this location be about 200,000 square feet
and that this space include the 66,000 square feet of Asian-oriented commercial activity
identified in Section XII. This represents a reduction of commercial and industrial space at this
location—currently there is a total of 372,400 square feet of building space.
The two nodes would accommodate almost 80% of the identified supportable space. The
balance of the supportable space would be accommodated by the existing commercial space
located in convenience centers and free-standing structures between the two nodes.
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XII. ANALYSIS OF ASIAN MARKET DEMAND FOR RETAIL GOODS AND
SERVICES
Due to the presence of stores at Asian Corners that are clearly oriented towards the Asian
market, we evaluated the strength of the Asian market to determine the potential for maintaining
and/or increasing the number of Asian-oriented businesses in the study area. Our approach
involved an analysis of: total size and location of the Asian market, buying power, current
competitive areas, and purchasing patterns.
A.
Demographics of the Asian market
The total number of Mecklenburg County residents who identified themselves as Asian in 2000
was 21,889. This was a 160% increase over the 1990 Asian population of 8,372. Growth is
expected to continue given immigration trends, in general, and the fact that there is now an
established Asian community in the Charlotte metropolitan area—new immigrants are attracted
to areas where they already have family and friends. Assuming that the Asian population has
grown at least at the same rate as the general County population, we estimate that the 2002 Asian
population is about 23,222.
Although County residents who identify themselves as Asian live throughout the County, there
are currently three areas where the Asian population is most concentrated—the University area,
along Central in the Eastway and Eastland Mall area, in the vicinity of Arrowood from South
Boulevard to Steele Creek Road.
The 2002 per capita income of the Asian population is estimated at $31,213. This is based on
first deriving a weighted per capita Census figure based on the per capita income of each Census
Tract and the number of persons in each Census tract who identified themselves as Asian. We
then apply the approach described in Section XI.
D.
Location, Amount and Type of Asian-oriented businesses
There are currently three concentrations of identifiable Asian-oriented businesses in
Mecklenburg County—along South Boulevard between Ideal Way and Tyvola; along Central
Avenue, in the vicinity of Arnold Drive, and; at Asian Corners. Asian Corners is well-situated to
serve the Asian population in the University area due to its accessibility by I-85. While
merchants at Asian Corners did not mention any one area as their source of business, they
frequently mentioned I-85 as an advantage to their location.
Together, there are a total of almost 113,000 square feet of identifiable Asian-oriented
businesses—almost 37,000 square feet along South Boulevard, about 34,000 square feet along
Central Avenue, and about 42,000 square feet at Asian Corners. These figures include only
businesses that appear to be in operation and include only square footage that is fully utilized.
The two most common types of businesses in all three areas are food markets and restaurants.
About 75%, 84%, and 65% of the Asian-oriented square footage along South Boulevard, Central
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Avenue and in Asian Corners, respectively, are occupied by these two types of businesses. Other
smaller categories include specialty, personal services, business services and billiard halls.
The actual square footage of food and restaurant space in the three areas is within several
thousand feet of each other. However, the International Market at Asian Corners, at 15,000
square feet, is the single largest food store. Each of the other two areas has a similar, but
smaller, Asian-oriented grocery store (each about 6,000 square feet) and other food stores that
specialize in seafood.
E.
Demand Generated by the Asian market
Based on the above profile of existing Asian-oriented businesses, it appears that the Asian
market supports only certain types of Asian-oriented stores. Most common are food-related—
grocery and fish stores, and restaurants. To a lesser extent, some specialty, services and
recreation businesses are also supported. Purchases made in non-ethnic stores include home
furnishings, hardware, clothes, general merchandise, and drug stores.
In order to determine square footage supported by the Asian market, we first focus on food and
restaurants. Assuming that the portion of income spent on retail goods, in general, and various
goods and services, in particular, is the same as the general population, we arrive at the total
amount that the Asian market spends on food and restaurants.
It is likely that within the Asian community, a range of preferences exists in terms of patronizing
Asian-oriented food and restaurants. Further, it is likely that this preference changes over time
and is influenced by the length of time in this country. To accommodate all those whose food
and restaurant purchases are always made at Asian-oriented establishments and those who do not
patronize these establishments at all or very little, we assume the mid-point, i.e., that 50% of the
Asian market’s food and restaurant purchases are made in Asian-oriented establishments.
Translating the amount spent into supportable square footage, we arrive at about 52,000 square
feet of food stores, and about 48,000 square feet of restaurants.
Projecting the same growth in the number of people who identify themselves as Asian within the
next 10 years as between 1990 and 2002, we find the supportable square footage of food stores
and restaurants is almost 87,000 square feet and 80,000 square feet, respectively. [It should be
noted that we do not use the same rate of increase as the apparent high rate of increase is often
due to the low initial base].
F.
Comparison to Existing Space and Recommendations
Currently, total supportable square footage of food stores and restaurants is slightly higher than
the existing square footage. Due to scattered restaurants outside the three concentrations
mentioned above, we do not conclude that there is additional support for restaurants at this time.
The documented food stores, however, appear to include all the existing Asian-oriented stores at
this time and therefore there appears to be the opportunity for expansion of existing food stores
or a new store.
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Within ten years, total supportable square footage of food stores and restaurants will be about
double the existing square footage. Each of the existing areas may capture a share of the future
growth or a new, fourth area may emerge as the Asian population moves to different parts of the
County. For these reasons, we view the future growth in demand as a means to strengthen the
existing active food and restaurant space in the study area with the potential for some expansion.
The existing concentration of Asian-oriented businesses in the study area now has 27,000 square
feet of food and restaurant space with the potential to add an additional 20,000 to 28,000 square
feet of similar businesses. Allowing for efficient use of space, we project a total of about 50,000
square feet of Asian-oriented food and restaurants. Further, given that, on average, food and
restaurants make up 75% of all Asian-oriented businesses, we project that an additional 16,000
square feet of other types of Asian-oriented businesses can be supported (specialty, personal and
business services). This provides a total of about 66,000 square feet of Asian-oriented
businesses that may be supported in the study area.
The building that Asian Corners now occupies is 121,393 square feet, of which 75,988 are
leasable and 45,405 square feet are interior common space. The interior leasable space performs
poorly, while the outside space appears to do consistently better. This, plus the fact that even in
ten years only 66,000 square feet are required for an “Asian Corners”, indicates that Asianoriented businesses could benefit from a newly configured space in the study area.
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A P P E N D I X
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Table A-1
Projections of Population in Households for the Primary Trade Area
Primary Trade Area
2002
2007
2012
38,228
40,756
42,733
2002
2007
2012
$18,511
$19,942
$21,483
Source: U.S. Census.; Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-2
Per Capita Income Projections for the Primary Trade Area (2002 $'s)
1999 Primary Trade Area
Annual Real Increase Factor:
$17,703
1.50%
Primary Trade Area
Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Anita Kramer & Associates.
Table A-3
Total Income and Total Potential Retail Sales Projections for the Primary Trade Area
Percent of Personal Income Spent for Retail Goods
Allowance for Business, Institutional,Tourist Spending
Area
34.00%
4.00%
38.00%
2002
Total Income
Primary Trade Area
Total Potential Retail Sales
Primary Trade Area
2007
2012
$707,647,305
$812,762,630 $918,051,825
$268,905,976
$308,849,799 $348,859,693
Source: 1997 Economic Census: Retail Trade North Carolina; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Accounts Data. State Annual Personal Income; Anita Kramer & Associates.
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Table A-4
Distribution of Retail Sales by Retail Category
Retail Category
Shopper Goods
Apparel Stores
Gen. Merchandise Stores
Furn., Appliance Stores
Specialty/Misc. Stores
Subtotal
3.78%
12.63%
6.13%
9.41%
31.94%
Convenience Goods
Drugstores
Food (Supermarkets,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking Establish.
Subtotal
4.43%
17.88%
0.57%
10.52%
33.40%
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe Stores
Automotive Dealers, Parts
Service Stations
Subtotal
9.94%
15.31%
9.41%
34.66%
Total
100.00%
Source: North Carolina Department of Revenue; 1997 Economic
Census: Retail Trade North Carolina; Anita Kramer & Assoc.
Table A-5
Projected Demand for Retail Sales from Primary Trade Area
2002
2007
2012
$10,159,456
$33,957,351
$16,481,605
$25,292,917
85,891,329
$11,668,561
$39,001,443
$18,929,815
$29,049,977
98,649,796
$13,180,163
$44,053,878
$21,382,074
$32,813,251
111,429,367
Shopper Goods
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking Establish.
Subtotal
$11,902,509
$48,080,388
---$28,297,548
88,280,445
$13,670,531
$55,222,344
---$32,500,922
101,393,797
$15,441,477
$62,376,113
---$36,711,248
114,528,838
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Subtotal
$26,729,254
$41,157,115
---67,886,369
$30,699,670
$47,270,674
---77,970,344
$34,676,654
$53,394,346
---88,070,999
Retail Category
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen. Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
Subtotal
Grand Total*
$242,058,143
$278,013,937 $314,029,204
Source: Anita Kramer
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*For the purpose of identifying retail potential on Freedom Drive, liquor stores and service stations are excluded from this analysis.
Table A-6
Potential Capture of Trade Area Demand by Market Area Establishments
Expressed in Percentages
2002
2007
2012
30%
20%
35%
20%
30%
20%
35%
20%
30%
20%
35%
20%
30%
30%
---60%
30%
30%
---60%
30%
30%
---60%
10%
25%
----
10%
25%
----
10%
25%
----
2002
2007
$3,954,049Apparel
$8,810,776Gen. Merchandise
$7,483,726Furn., Appliances
$6,562,650Specialty
26,811,201
Subtotal
$3,047,837
$6,791,470
$5,768,562
$5,058,583
20,666,452
$3,500,568
$7,800,289
$6,625,435
$5,809,995
23,736,288
$4,632,443Drug
$18,712,834Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
----Packaged Liquor
$22,026,749Eating, Drinking
45,372,026
Subtotal
$3,570,753
$14,424,117
---$16,978,529
34,973,398
$4,101,159
$16,566,703
---$19,500,553
40,168,416
2,672,925
10,289,279
---12,962,204
3,069,967
11,817,669
---14,887,636
$68,602,054
$78,792,339
Retail Category
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
done
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food (Sprmrkts,etc)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
done
done
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-7
2012
3,467,665Bldg Mat, Hdwe
13,348,586Automotive
----Service Stations
16,816,252
Subtotal
$88,999,479
Grand Total
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
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Table A-7
Potential Capture of All Market Area Demand for Retail Sales
Retail Category
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen. Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
Subtotal
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
Subtotal
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Subtotal
Grand Total
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
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2002
2007
2012
$3,047,837
$6,791,470
$5,768,562
$5,058,583
20,666,452
$3,500,568
$7,800,289
$6,625,435
$5,809,995
23,736,288
$3,954,049
$8,810,776
$7,483,726
$6,562,650
26,811,201
$3,570,753
$14,424,117
---$16,978,529
34,973,398
$4,101,159
$16,566,703
---$19,500,553
40,168,416
$4,632,443
$18,712,834
---$22,026,749
45,372,026
2,672,925
10,289,279
---12,962,204
3,069,967
11,817,669
---14,887,636
3,467,665
13,348,586
---16,816,252
$68,602,054
$78,792,339
$88,999,479
Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-8
Potential Distribution of Retail Sales by Type of Retail Location
Retail Category
Community/
Neighborhood
Freestanding
Other
Shopper Goods
Apparel
67%
33%
Gen. Merchandise
67%
33%
Furniture, Appliances
29%
71%
Specialty
50%
50%
Convenience Goods
Drug
84%
16%
Food
84%
16%
Pac Liquor
84%
16%
Eat, Drink
32%
68%
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
31%
26%
44%
Automotive
2%
2%
96%
Service Stations
0%
0%
100%
Community
$225
150
195
200
Freestanding
$225
150
195
220
Other
339
450
249
285
339
450
249
285
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-9
Sales Per Square Foot Standards for Retail Space by Type of Location
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food (Sprmrkts,etc)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
140
175
175
Automotive
150
150
150
Service Stations
Acres
Acres
Acres
Source: Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, Urban Land Institute; Anita Kramer & Assoc.
74
Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-10
Supportable Neighborhood and Community Center Retail Space (SF)
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen. Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
Subtotal
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
Subtotal
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Subtotal
Grand Total
2002
2007
2012
9,076
30,335
8,579
12,646
60,636
10,424
34,841
9,853
14,525
69,643
11,774
39,355
11,130
16,407
78,665
8,848
26,925
---19,064
54,837
10,162
30,925
---21,895
62,982
11,479
34,931
---24,732
71,141
5,919
1,372
---7,291
6,798
1,576
---8,373
7,678
1,780
---9,458
122,763
140,999
159,265
2002
2007
2012
4,470
14,941
21,003
11,497
51,912
5,134
17,161
24,123
13,205
59,623
5,799
19,384
27,248
14,915
67,347
1,685
5,129
---40,510
47,324
1,936
5,890
---46,528
54,354
2,186
6,653
---52,555
61,395
3,971
1,372
---5,343
4,561
1,576
---6,137
5,152
1,780
---6,932
104,579
120,113
135,673
Table A-11
Supportable Freestanding Retail Space (SF)
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen. Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty
Subtotal
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
Subtotal
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Subtotal
Grand Total
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
75
Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-12
Summary of Supportable Space (SF)
Community/Neighborhood
Freestanding
Other (Auto.,Bldg Mat, Hardware)
Grand Total
2002
2007
2012
122,763
104,579
72,572
299,914
140,999
120,113
83,352
344,464
159,265
135,673
94,150
389,087
Table A-13
Supportable Service Space (SF)
Community/Neighborhood
Freestanding
20.00%
15.00%
2002
2007
2012
24,553
15,687
28,200
18,017
31,853
20,351
2002
2007
2012
147,316
120,266
72,572
340,154
169,199
138,130
83,352
390,681
191,118
156,024
94,150
441,291
Table A-15
Summary of Supportable Space, With Adustments for Secondary Market Area
2002
2007
2012
1.2
1.2
1.2
176,779
144,319
72,572
393,670
203,038
165,756
83,352
452,146
229,341
187,229
94,150
510,720
Community/Neigborhood
Freestanding
Table A-14
Summary of Supportable Space, Including Services (SF)
Community/Neigborhood
Freestanding
Other (Auto.,Bldg Mat, Hardware)
Grand Total
Adjustments to Supportable Retail Space for SMA
Community/Neigborhood
Freestanding
Other (Auto.,Bldg Mat, Hardware)
Grand Total
Source: Anita Kramer & Associates
76
Anita Kramer & Associates
Table A-16
Comparison of Supportable Space to Existing Occupied Retail Space
Supportable Square Footage
Existing Sq Ft
2002
2007
2012
2002
Shopper Goods
Apparel
Gen. Merchandise
Furn., Appliances
Specialty*
Subtotal
Convenience Goods
Drug
Food(Sprmrkts,etc.)
Packaged Liquor
Eating, Drinking
Subtotal
16,255
54,332
35,499
28,972
135,058
18,670
62,402
40,772
33,275
155,119
21,088
70,486
46,054
37,586
175,214
19,392
51,274
67,456
34,937
173,059
12,640
38,464
---71,489
122,593
14,517
44,178
---82,108
140,803
16,398
49,901
---92,744
159,043
11,340
12,941
----46,464
70,745
18,588
69,144
---87,732
21,349
79,415
---100,764
24,115
89,703
---113,818
0
72,368
----72,368
345,383
396,686
448,075
316,172*
48,287
55,460
62,645
393,670
452,146
510,720
Heavy Commercial Goods
Bldg Mat, Hdwe
Automotive
Service Stations
Subtotal
Total, Retail
Services
Total, Retail and Services
Services:
34,329Personal
16,131Medical
11,138Other**
52,165Auto
429,935*, **
* Excludes pawn shops, liquor stores, and service stations.
** Excludes check cashing, day care.
77
Anita Kramer & Associates