The UCL &
Leverhulme
Trust Population
Footprints
Symposium
Report
London, 25th & 26th May 2011
w w w. p o p u l a t i o n f o o t p r i n t s . o r g
University College London
Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7679 2000
www.ucl.ac.uk
UCL Institute for Global Health
30 Guilford Street
London WC1N 1EH
Tel +44 (0) 20 7905 2889
Email: r.osterlund@ucl.ac.uk
www.ucl.ac.uk/global-health/
This report was published October 2011
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
The UCL-Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium
London, 25-26 May, 2011
CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
2. BACKGROUND AND AIMS
7
3. EMERGING MESSAGES
9
4. DAY 1 PROCEEDINGS: MORE THAN JUST NUMBERS
11
i.
Welcome Address 11
ii.
Keynote Presentations
11
iii. Footprints: Environment, Population and Consumption
15
iv. Population Impact: Regional Perspectives
17
v. Population growth – Problem or Hype? 20
5. DAY 2 PROCEEDINGS: FROM NUMBERS TO ACTION
23
i.
Moving Further, Living Longer
23
ii.
Public Health Impacts and Interventions
25
iii. Economic Planning Challenges: Beyond 2015
27
iv. Keynote address: Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin
30
v. Policy and Research Directions
31
6. POSTER PRESENTATIONS
35
7. FOLLOW-UP STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT 39
8. USE OF LIVE SOCIAL MEDIA
41
9. PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT EVENTS
43
10. APPENDICES47
I.
Conference Programme
47
II. Speaker profiles and presentation abstracts
49
III. HE First Lady of Rwanda Plenary presentation
57
IV. UNFPA Executive Director Plenary presentation
60
V. Nairobi Satellite conference report 64
VI. Social media highlights
70
VII. Organising and Advisory committee member
73
VIII.Exhibitor stand information
74
Report Author: Sarah Fisher, Population & Sustainability Network
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
1. Executive Summary
A global event
Population Footprints, the
2011 UCL-Leverhulme
Trust symposium on human
population growth and global
carrying capacity, took place
in London on 25-26 May
with a satellite meeting in
Kenya. This high profile global
event deemed to be ‘the
population event of the year’
brought together cross-sector
academics, NGOs and activists
from the global South and North
to debate and address practical
policy concerns on a range of
inter-related issues of critical
importance for the 21st century.
© Rajee Sukumaran
Almost 300 delegates and 35
speakers and chairs took part
in the symposium, representing
a total of 33 countries. The
many world-renowned
speakers, including academics
and representatives of multilateral and non-governmental
organisations were extremely
well received by an equally
diverse and multi-disciplinary
audience. The opening sessions
in London were linked to
the satellite meeting of 100
delegates in Nairobi, Kenya, hosted by the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), in
partnership with the Government of Kenya and various local agencies.
Furthering the debate
The symposium succeeded in fostering debate and bringing different perspectives and policy
approaches to a range of complex and often contentious issues related to the main themes:
consumption, reproductive health and rights, climate change, ‘sustainable’ growth, ageing,
migration and other population dynamics.
The symposium opened with a key note address delivered on behalf of Her Excellency the
First Lady of Rwanda, Jeanette Kagame. The address outlined the considerable investments
and achievements being made in Rwanda, a densely populated country facing considerable
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
The second day of the conference ‘From numbers to action’
proved to be just as dynamic, provoking discussion on
connections at both national and regional levels between wealth
inequalities and issues relating to ageing and migration, as
well as consideration of effective public health interventions,
economic planning challenges beyond 2015, and policy and
research directions. A highlight was provided by keynote speaker
Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of UNFPA, who resolutely made the case that
empowering the world’s 2 billion young people is critical. On 27 May a smaller follow-up meeting
was attended by 64 experts who were speakers and delegates of the symposium, to explore
ongoing opportunities for advocacy, public policy engagement and collaboration.
Key ‘take home’ messages that emerged from the symposium are summarised in Section 3 of the
report.
A truly participatory symposium
The conference was ‘streamed’ live so that a wider range of participants around the world could
view the presentations in real time, and actively participate by commenting, submitting questions
and sharing information with their own networks using Twitter and Facebook. The conference
included a display of 25 posters by students, young academics and NGOs working in population
and related disciplines from around the world. Fully funded scholarships were awarded to 37
delegates from a wide range of developing countries, many of whom exhibited posters. Two
parallel public events, a lunch-hour lecture and an evening debate, were held in London during
the same week. These events, attended by 200 participants, succeeded in engaging with nonacademic audiences on the key symposium themes. Two further public events attended by a
further 200 participants took place in July. The extended time
allowed for questions and discussion after each symposium
session contributed further to the interactive, participatory, and
indeed lively nature of the week’s event.
Delegate and speaker feedback about the conference was
extremely positive, noting in particular the informative and
stimulating nature of the event and the excellent diversity and
quality of the speakers and discussions. In the words of Dr Karen
Hardee;
“Population Footprints gave experts and participants from around
the world space to examine and discuss often contentious issues
in a respectful environment. Leverhulme Trust and UCL have
provided an important legacy on this topic – to keep talking and
to act.”
4
© Teddy Hla
© Teddy Hla
natural resource constraints, to drive development, with a focus
on education, gender equality and reproductive health. The
presentation provided an excellent introductory illustration and
practical policy approaches to the synergistic challenges at the
centre of the key symposium themes. Additional speakers brought
diverse insights and regional perspectives to issues relating to
population, environment and consumption footprints, contributing
to the first day’s theme of ‘More than numbers.’ A lively and
popular panel discussion ‘Population growth: problem or hype?’
provided an energetic and – at times – heated end to the first day.
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Sustaining the dialogue
Testimony to the outstanding success of the symposium, Population Footprints attracted a
high volume of media coverage and journalists were well represented amongst the symposium
delegates. Media attention to the symposium and speakers included coverage by The Lancet, The
Guardian, various additional web-based forums and publications and a BBC World Service ‘One
Planet’ radio programme, recorded at the symposium, interviewing speakers and delegates which
aired on 27/5. Subsequent academic publications are planned.
The symposium is anticipated to have far-reaching impacts, with the lively multidisciplinary
exchanges which took place expected to continue into the future, furthering cross-discipline
dialogue, and potentially collaboration, on a diverse range of inter-connected issues addressed by
the symposium.
© Teddy Hla
UCL is very grateful to the Leverhulme Trust for their foresight, generous support and belief in this
event.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
2. Background & Aims
The symposium aimed to draw attention to a number of critical questions, and discussion took
place on the following issues, and many more:
„„ The likely causes and effects of both northern and southern population migration in the 21st
century
„„ The most appropriate public policy responses to projected changes in population dynamics,
and common ground for meaningful dialogue
„„ How paradigms of gender and sexual rights should be developed to meet the challenges
„„ The medium term implications of different global patterns in ageing
„„ The relationship of wealth inequalities to population dynamics and environmental pressures
„„ The relative importance of women’s education and infant survival rates for demographic
transition
„„ Whether it is useful to talk about numbers in relation to both population size and carrying
capacity
„„ The significance of economic growth for health and wellbeing
„„ How to ensure that equity and right issues are mainstreamed into practical approaches
„„ Appropriate strategies for increasing funding for international family planning
„„ Ethical and moral issues raised by linking population and climate change
„„ How to move the debate further and promote more integrated and multidisciplinary
collaboration
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
3. Emerging Messages
With such a wealth of perspectives and approaches represented at Population Footprints,
the symposium highlighted the complexity of the issues at the interplay of the population,
consumption and carrying capacity debate. It aimed to explore these often contentious issues
and promote cross-sector dialogue rather than to achieve consensus and put forward specific
policy recommendations. Yet at the same time, the following themes and issues emerged as key
messages from the conference:1
„„ Increasing consumption and human population growth is exceeding the earth’s limits,
with the potential to severely impact health and well-being. While links between population,
consumption and sustainability issues are highly complex, both population dynamics and
consumption issues are significant, meaning that addressing growth in population and
consumption will be more effective than focus on either ‘population’ or ‘consumption’ alone.
Consumption levels and population size, density, growth and other dynamics are inequitably
distributed globally, regionally and nationally, and for this reason simplistic assertions and
strategies can be unproductive. The enormity and complexity of the challenge faced requires a
vast range of multidisciplinary and integrated approaches addressing both consumption- and
population-related drivers of environmental degradation.
„„ Unsustainable and inequitable patterns of consumption are the most significant
driver of the world’s environmental problems which must be addressed as a matter
of social justice. Over-consumption by the global North and the rich minority is having the
greatest impact upon the world’s poorest communities and presents a considerable threat to
humanity. For example, current USA carbon emissions per person are 20 times higher than
in India. While both human consumption and population are significant for sustainability,
growth in consumption exceeds population growth rates as a percentage increase in carbon
emissions per 1 per cent increase in population.2 This threat and its unethical nature is all the
more apparent with the onset of climate change, driven largely by the inequitable rates of
consumption of countries of the global North, but with the countries and citizens of the global
South most vulnerable to climate change.
„„ Social inequalities, including wealth, consumption, gender and health inequities, are
significant as both drivers and consequences of unsustainable consumption and
population growth and present a major moral issue. Vast and highly unjust levels of wealth
by a small minority correlate with high rates of consumption and contribute to environmental
degradation and poverty. For example, UNU-WIDER report from 2005 is often quoted, which
found that the richest 10 percent of adults in the world own 85 percent of global household
wealth. In addition, health and gender inequalities and poverty are key drivers of high fertility
and unsustainable population growth. Addressing these social inequalities that exist at the
local, national and global levels must be prioritised for ethical and moral reasons. Without
a considerable reversal of the trend of increasing wealth inequalities, significant progress in
addressing problems related to human consumption and population growth is unlikely to be
achieved.
„„ Family planning is valid in its own right, yet there is insufficient funding to ensure universal
access to sexual and reproductive health services. A resounding message of the symposium
1 Some of these emerging themes were identified by Prof. Mark Maslin of UCL in a recap session at the start of day 2 of the conference, in addition
to emerging further from discussions that took place at a follow-up session attended by various speakers and NGOs session on 27 May (see
Section 7).
2 Presentation by Prof. Georgina Mace, Imperial College London, at UCL and Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium, 25 May 2011,
London
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
was that increased investment is urgently required to address the unmet need for family planning
and other sexual and reproductive health services, as a matter of women and children’s health
and women’s rights. An estimated 215 million women in developing countries have an unmet
need for contraception3 and many countries of the world where women have a high-unmet need
for contraception have experienced per capita declines in assistance for family planning by more
than 50% between 1996 and 2006, at a time when demand is increasing.4 These issues alone
warrant the necessary funding increases, aside from potential wider benefits for sustainability.
Additionally, the following could be considered as Population Footprints ‘take home messages’:
„„ The concept of an exact ‘carrying capacity’ of the earth or
a nation is difficult and contentious, involving values and
judgements about how societies choose to use and allocate
resources.
„„ Development which is solely based on economic growth is
unsustainable and does not value wider, social and cultural
dimensions of well-being.
„„ Population dynamics, wealth inequalities and globalisation are
key drivers of migration, which has clear class, gender and other social dimensions.
© Teddy Hla
„„ Population dynamics, including urbanisation, migration, age
structures, density and growth are significant because they
influence resource use and consumption rates, are linked to,
health, the environment and the economy, and can affect a
country’s capacity to adapt to climate change.
„„ Use of technology and innovation is critical for achieving progress towards sustainable use of
the earth’s resources and has great potential to contribute to a green economy, sustainable
agriculture and an overall sustainable development path.
„„ Countries of the developing South are increasingly identifying the need to address
unsustainable rates of population growth and the associated pressure on resources as a key
development priority and as a strategy for increasing their capacity to adapt to climate change.
„„ Family planning must be voluntary, free from coercion, and should be delivered as part of
comprehensive, rights-based sexual and reproductive health programmes.
„„ Engaging with young people in the global South and ensuring
that their needs for health and education are met is necessary
to seize opportunities which will realise the demographic
dividend and promote a more sustainable and equitable
future.
„„ Women and their needs must be at the centre of all
population-related debates and interventions, and both family
planning and empowerment of women are critical priorities in
their own right.
3 Singh. S., Darroch, J. E., Ashford, L. S. & Vlassoff, M. (2009). Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Family Planning and Maternal and
Newborn Health. New York: Guttmacher Institute and United Nations Population Fund.
4 Presentation by Ms Hania Zlotnik, UN Population Division Director, at UCL and Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium, 25 May
2011, London
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© Teddy Hla
„„ Consumption, rather than population, should be the primary
concern for climate change mitigation, though population
dynamics are relevant and heighten the challenges of
adaptation.
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
4. Day 1 Proceedings:
More Than Just
Numbers
Welcome Address
© Rajee Sukumaran
The symposium opened with a welcome address by UCL
President and Provost Prof. Malcolm Grant CBE. Prof. Grant
welcomed the delegates to what he described as such an
“imaginative and exciting” conference. Calling for a bold and
sustained approach to the issues of human population growth
and global carrying capacity, he highlighted the need to open up
new avenues and reduce ideological barriers in order to address
“one of the most challenging issues that confronts the population
on this earth”.
Keynote Presentations
The opening keynote presentation was delivered on behalf of Her
Excellency the First Lady of Rwanda, Jeanette Kagame, by HE
Ernest Rwamucyo, High Commissioner of Rwanda. The address
outlined the considerable investments being made in Rwanda to
achieve the aim of becoming a middle-income economy by 2020,
with the strategy of promoting a productive, skilled and healthy
population. Rwanda is a small and densely populated country,
where population growth is placing increasing pressure on the
nation’s limited natural resources. Considering the individual,
family and the nation, Rwanda is taking a structured and bold
approach to development, including a focus on education,
gender equality and reproductive health, in order to ensure that
the country’s population is “an asset, not a burden”. The presentation provided an excellent
introductory illustration and practical policy approaches, to the synergistic challenges at the centre
of the key symposium themes. HE Rwamucyo listed considerable development achievements
by Rwanda to date, including a doubling of GDP per capita since 2000, reductions in population
growth rates, guaranteed universal access to education and health care, and a parliament in which
56% of seats are held by women.
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© Rajee Sukumaran
HE Ernest Rwamucyo
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Discussion
Prof. Anthony Costello, Chair for the Keynote session, opened the discussion by congratulating the
achievements of Rwanda, highlighting that it is the only country in the world with a majority female
parliament. Given that the UK has lower representation of women in parliament than Afghanistan,
HE Rwamucyo was asked to share some insights to help address this situation. HE Rwamucyo
explained that the quota stating that a minimum of 30% of political positions must be held by
women, arose from re-drafting the constitution following the conflict in Rwanda, at which time it
was recognised that every Rwandan should contribute to building the new Rwanda. Referring to
a reference in the presentation made to not only the rights of individuals to freely choose to have
children, but also their associated responsibilities, Dr. Karen Hardee of Population Reference Bureau
congratulated HE Rwamucyo on the reframing of this debate, and asked how this balance between
rights and responsibilities had been received in Rwanda. HE Rwamucyo responded that several
options had been discussed initially, but taking a combination of rights and responsibilities was
deemed to be the most appropriate, putting these messages into the hands of the community, as
part of awareness-raising and means to increase access to family planning services.
Further discussion relating to the presentation from Rwanda focused on the extent to which
education in schools and at the community level must play in overcoming sensitivities and
resistance relating to sexual and reproductive health and rights. HE Rwamucyo explained that
family planning is a delicate issue in Rwanda, and while the role of the church in health services
provision presents particular problems for increasing access to family planning options, in recent
years there has been greater openness to discussion. The need to increase awareness of HIV/AIDs
has paved the way for a broader approach to sexual and reproductive health in Rwandan schools
and the media, and with the community engagement providing a key platform for discussion,
access to information is slowly increasing.
Ms. Sara Parkin OBE
Ms. Sara Parkin OBE and Founder Director of Forum for the Future provided
“To consume or to
a second, lively keynote address, sharing ‘A tale of sex and money’, arguing
flourish, that is the
that the UK will only be able to take population issues seriously if we are able
to talk openly about sex and money. Ms. Parkin’s tale explained why the issue
question”
of ‘population’ is both hated and avoided by environmentalists and political
Ms. Sara Parkin,
leaders. She argued that ‘squeamishness’ about sex and money lies behind
Forum for the Future.
the answer, for ‘sex’ stirs up so many prejudices and complexities, and no one
likes to talk about ‘money’. Yet at the same time, she pointed out, our economic
model relies on consumption, with the inherent environmental costs that are not factored into our
economy. Framing the presentation around the question “Is an ‘ecological demographic transition’
possible?”, Ms. Parkin argued that this will only take place when people act locally and think
globally, applying to both individual choices made about the environment and having children.
However, she noted that currently many women are not able to control their fertility, never mind
consider the global impact of childbearing. Turning to consider the role that countries such as
the UK should play, Ms. Parkin presented a ‘leadership to do list’, consisting of: investment in
people, a rethink of economic growth, ‘moving from profligacy to thrift’ and planning for what is
coming – including the need to talk and think about migration with compassion. Having argued
that “the interconnectedness of our multiple grand challenges demands similarly inter-connected
responses”, Ms Parkin concluded her presentation stating that “there is no silver bullet – just
millions of right actions”.
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Discussion
© Teddy Hla
Responding to the question “What about men?” posed by the
satellite conference in Nairobi, Ms. Parkin agreed that men have
a key role to play, and argued that if women are to be granted
more power, there’s a need for a new way of doing things,
acknowledging that women do not want to gain and hold power
in the same way that men have for the past centuries. Referring
back to the example provided by Rwanda, she suggested that a
gender quota for parliament was needed “to force the hand so
we get there”. Another question raised the challenges posed by
ageing in Europe. Emphasising the need to challenge so called
‘truths’, Ms. Parkin turned the question around, asking “Why is
ageing a problem?” Surely people living longer should in fact be
a point for celebration? Challenging dominant discourse on the
issue of ageing, Ms. Parkin referred to the ‘ludicrous’ argument
for increasing population growth in the UK and Western Europe,
simply to maintain current proportions of the working age
population, pointing to the fact that it is actually more expensive
for the state to support children than the elderly.
Further discussion was sparked by a question from John Worley of IPPF about the influence of
religious groups, including those promoting abstinence-only, anti-choice (referring to abortion)
agendas in opposing comprehensive sex and reproductive health education. Ms. Parkin added
that the lack of people available to work with young people in an unbiased and responsible way, to
counter these views, exacerbates these problems. She concluded the discussion section highlighting
what she described as a key challenge we face that; as a society “We tolerate vast volumes of sex in
advertising, soaps and on television... but we will not tolerate sex in policy debate”.
Prof. Maria Lee
A third keynote presentation was made by Prof. Maria Lee, Professor of Law at UCL and former
member of the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, sharing the findings of the
commission’s report Demographic Change and the Environment, published in February 2011. Prof.
Lee explained that the report was commissioned against the backdrop of high levels of migration
from the EU to the UK, contributing to much political and popular debate based around perceptions
that the UK is ‘full’, and that environmental quality is dependent on reducing the size of the UK
population. Convinced that this was a simplistic response, the commission set out to explore
these issues in depth, and found that how we live and consume resources as a society has a far
greater impact on the environment than overall numbers of people. Lee explained that additional
demographics trends, other than population size, were of interest to the commission, with changing
age structure, increasing numbers of households due to decreasing average household size,
and uneven population distribution being of particular relevance to environmental issues. Yet the
environmental impacts of these trends are fairly poorly understood, meaning that while demography
is important to environmental policy, greater understanding of the exact environmental impacts
of demographic change is needed. Pointing to how changing the size of the UK population is not
amenable to policy intervention for a number of reasons, Prof. Lee explained that for explorative
purposes, assuming that society were prepared to take action to reduce the birth rate, achieve zero
net migration and put a halt to further increases to life expectancy, the commission found that it
would still take around 50 years to get back to just 2008 population levels. The commission therefore
concluded that “the enormous social, political and economic interventions of any intervention
to affect population levels would be in return for small and extremely uncertain environmental
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
gains”. Rather than to address population directly, it was found to be more important to address
environmental impacts, especially those mediated by uneven consumption patterns.
© Rajee Sukumaran
Discussion
Prof. Danny Dorling from the University of Sheffield began questions to Prof. Lee by expressing
concern that a report in the 1970s sharing similar important findings had not generated sufficient
attention or understanding from environmentalists, and asked how to ensure this did not happen
once again. Prof. Lee responded that the report is perhaps a ‘slow burner’, asserting that it is likely
to receive increasing attention over the years as the issues move up the political agenda.
Several members of the campaign group Population Matters expressed concern over the
findings of the Royal Commission’s report about the limited impact of population growth upon
the environment, and subsequent implications for population policy. Simon Ross for example,
suggested that the Royal Commission needs to be challenged, asserting that it is arguments about
the very slow effect of family planning programmes, or the roles of other demographic factors, that
are responsible for slowing progress. Prof. Lee responded with a strong warning that “acting on
population is not cost free”. Pointing to the political and social implications of the various actions
that she referred to in her presentation that would be necessary to reduce the UK population
size, she stated that whilst there may be a debate to be had about whether those implications
are worthwhile for other reasons, “the environment is not a trump card in this debate”. For as the
Royal Commission concluded, in the UK the environmental gains do not justify those actions even
if there are good reasons for talking about population for other reasons. A comment by Prof. Chris
Rapley of UCL also shared concerns about Prof. Lee’s account of the report, with regard to the
impact of population growth upon the environment. Pointing to climate change as an example of
the ways that humans can impact on the environment, he expressed a view that the true extent
of the impacts of these environmental problems are not fully taken into account, because of the
difficulty of modelling the full economic costs of these threats. Responding to this comment Prof.
Lee reiterated that the Royal Commission did not say that population was unimportant. Rather, the
conclusion was that population in the UK has a lesser impact than consumption, and therefore the
focus should be on reducing consumption by those living in the UK.
A comment from Dr. Eliya Zulu of the African Institute for Development Policy, Nairobi, highlighted
the importance of acknowledging the differing situations with respect to demographic change
between the UK and the least developed countries. Referring to how environmentalists sometimes
perceive that talking about population in the global South is an attempt to minimise action that the
North must take to reduce consumption rates, he praised Rwanda for providing a clear example
that developing countries themselves are in fact taking on the issue. It is this kind of leadership, he
added, that needs to take place by African countries, at both the national and community levels, to
address unsustainable rates of population growth.
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© Rajee Sukumaran
Footprints: Environment, Population and Consumption
In this session three dynamic speakers presented their own broad and diverse views on the
issue of global ‘footprints’. Setting the scene for the conference they provided highly informative
introductions to three of the main global issues affecting carrying capacity: Environment,
Population and Consumption.
Prof. Georgina Mace of Imperial College London made the first presentation of the session,
providing an overview of global trends and inequalities relating to human population and the
environment. She began by setting out two reasons why population is a concern: firstly because
we are reaching our environmental limits, and secondly, because people are increasingly living
in dense, overcrowded conditions, with severe implications for quality of life. Drawing a strong
distinction between population size and density, and the health well-being of the population, Prof.
Mace demonstrated that both of these issues impact on and are impacted by the environment,
consumption and the intensity of natural resource use. Posing the question of how to address
growing population, consumption and inequalities, Prof. Mace set out three ways. Firstly, reducing
population size and density by reducing fertility, and secondly, reducing environmental deterioration
by reducing consumption pressures. Lastly, she pointed to the great potential for innovation and
technology to enhance quality of life, enable reproductive choice, and reduce environmental impacts
of consumption. Simple changes to farming practices for example could deliver many environmental
benefits, providing an example of the types of innovations and practices which she argued must
underpin progress to achieve equitable and sustainable growth and development. Acknowledging
that different patterns of change are taking place in the developed and developing world with respect
to both consumption and population, Prof. Mace concluded that particularly in the short term when
consumption has the biggest impact; ”addressing growth in consumption and population will be
more effective than population on its own.”
Ms. Hania Zlotnic of the UN Population Division provided an overview of the recent UN population
projections, released in May 2011. Ms. Zlotinic explained that if both fertility and mortality were to
remain constant in each country at the level they will today, the world population would increase to
18 billion in 2100, from almost 7 billion today. Therefore: “what will happen in the next two decades
is essential”. Ms. Zlotnic highlighted the situation whereby it is the least developed countries which
have the highest potential for rapid population growth and which also have the highest unmet need
for contraception. In the group of high fertility countries, contraceptive prevalence is increasing by less
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© Rajee Sukumaran
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
than 1% a year, a rate at which
it would take 30-40 years to just
address the current unmet need
for contraception. Despite this,
since 1996 the amount of donor
funding for family planning has
been decreasing, with some
countries with a high unmet
need experiencing over 50%
reductions in family planning
assistance. Ms. Zlotnic concluded
with a strong reminder that “every
country has a choice: projections
are not predictions”. She added
that she hopes that the world will
achieve population growth rates
that are lower than the medium
projection, because that “would
make things a lot easier for all of the problems the world has, in terms of making sure people’s standard
of living keeps increasing, as it has in the last 50 years”.
Ms. Susan George of the Transnational Institute began by proving a damning criticism of Malthusian,
and other theories relating to population and environmental issues, that ignore global forces of
wealth, power and control. Offering a case in point, Ms. George challenged the ‘simplistic’ assertion
that hunger is caused by over population, explaining that hunger is caused by the fact that people
have no land to grow food, or no money to buy it. Rather than looking at the poor, Ms. George
argued that we need to be looking at the rich, given that “one per cent of the wealth of the top 10
million people in the world would be quite enough to deal with all of the problems [in question]”.
Ms. George finished by presenting a list of ‘remedies’ that could be looked to if the world’s leaders
genuinely wished to address population issues and give the world’s poorest citizens better and more
dignified lives. This list included cancelling developing countries’ debt, granting land rights to the
landless, taxing financial transactions and switching to green technology. She concluded by stating
“if we could possibly unite to allow all of these things to happen then UCL and the Leverhulme Trust
would not need to have another population conference in another 10 years”.
Discussion
Prof. Judith Stephenson from UCL who chaired the session began the discussion by asking
whether we should in fact be worried for the low fertility countries where ageing populations are
‘shrinking and wrinkling’? Ms. Zlotnik responded to this question, pointing to Japan to illustrate
how the countries that this situation applies to are well off and therefore have many means to
adapt, even though they do have political decisions to make. On the other hand added Ms. Zlotnik,
the issue may be more serious for countries such as India and China which have less time to adapt
to population ageing, although at the same time they have fewer obligations to elderly citizens
in terms of pensions and health care provision, placing more responsibility upon families for
provision.
Ed Barry of the Sustainable World Initiative raised the issue that humanity is already consuming the
planet’s resources at an unsustainable rate, which he explained is likely to have mortality implications
in the future. Yet because this likelihood is not factored into the UN Population Division’s projections,
he asked where we can look to in the UN System “to put some realism into population projections”,
in the context of natural resource constraints. Ms. Zlotnik accepted this limitation, for while it has
16
been possible to model the impact of HIV/AIDS upon mortality,
albeit with great difficulty, currently the UN does not have a basis
for predicting the future impact of disasters, which to date have not
had a significant overall impact on mortality. Given that previous
warnings about the earth not being able to feed 6 billion (with the
population now approaching 7 billion) have not come to pass, Ms.
Zlotnik responded that we do have to be optimistic, and hope that
many changes will be made to adapt to a future population that
hopefully won’t, but could possibly, reach nearly 16 billion.
Tim Colbourn of UCL raised the issue that in a finite world, the
term ‘sustainable growth’ appears to be an oxymoron. In response Prof. Mace suggested that the
issue may be less to do with economic growth itself, but more the financial measures by which
we measure growth, which do not link to well-being or other measures relating to quality of life. In
contrast to concerns expressed in prior discussion about exceeding the world’s carrying capacity,
Dr. Dermot Grenham of LSE exclaimed that the earth is a big place so there must still be room for
more growth. Ms. Karen Newman of Population and Sustainability Network then posed the question
of how to reduce consumption in the developed world. Ms. George responded to both of these
questions, asserting that “we cannot continue with a 19th century model, we need a green, new
deal”, including greater use of renewables and recycling, seizing on known ways of reducing inputs
at the same time as increasing outputs. Ms. George also highlighted that consumption would be
decreased by reversing the trend that has been seen in the US and Britain over the last 30 years
of increasing social inequality, of which unsustainable consumption rates is just one of the many
harmful impacts.
Population Impact: Regional Perspectives
© Teddy Hla
With the global nature of the conference themes clearly set out, this session brought regional
perspectives to the discussion, looking at key population dynamics and challenges, and
particularly for the two most populous countries in the world: China and India, the global
implications of these.
Dr. Shireen Jejeebhoy of the Population Council, India, gave the
first session of the afternoon, addressing the question of whether
India is ready to take advantage of the window of opportunity
for accelerating economic growth offered by its changing age
structure and favourable dependency structure. Arguing that “there
is nothing automatic about the links between demographic change
and economic growth”, rather that much depends on the course
of the transition to adulthood taken by India’s youth, she set out
multiple educational and health challenges facing young people
in India, as well as the gender inequities faced by young women.
Some indicators of these challenges were provided; just 42% of
boys and 32% of girls have 10 or more years of schooling; almost
half of young women get married as children (below the age of
18), and contraception is used to delay pregnancy by just 10% of
women following marriage. Dr. Jejeebhoy concluded that Indian
youth face major limitations in successfully making the transition
to adulthood, which can adversely affect the country’s ability to
convert its growing labour force into a skilled, healthy and effective
one, and therefore India’s overall ability to reap demographic
dividend opportunities.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
© Teddy Hla
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Dr. Vik Mohan of the marine conservation organisation Blue
Ventures gave an inspiring presentation sharing his experiences
of managing a highly innovative integrated population, health and
environment project in Madagascar. In a country with one of the
fastest growing populations in the world, the project works with
coastal fishing communities to directly address the interconnections
between humans, their health and their environment. Population
growth in the area is leading to unsustainable resource use and
overfishing, in turn deepening poverty, yet there is a large unmet
need for reproductive health care. Responding to this need
the project began in 2003 with a single family planning clinic
in one village, and it now delivers a comprehensive sexual and
reproductive health and education programme for 25 villages
in a coastal area covering 500 km2. In just the last four years
the contraceptive prevalence rate has increased from eight to 35 per cent. These successes
serve as testimony to the synergies created by taking an integrated approach to population and
environmental issues, and demonstrate the clear scope that exists for replication of this model
elsewhere. Because the project is responding to an unmet need, there is a strong relationship with
the local community who have a strong understanding of the links between their health and the
environment very clearly. When invited to design a slogan for the project, the community explained
clearly: “If we have too many children there won’t be enough fish”.
Prof. Li Shuzhou, Professor of Population Studies at Xi’an Jiaotong University, gave a fascinating
overview of the population dynamics resulting from China’s rapid demographic transition since the
1970s and the subsequent challenges. Coinciding with the country’s early and dramatic fertility
decline, economic reform in China and globalisation have stimulated large scale rural-urban and
international migration. While much attention has focused on the nation’s unparalleled fertility
transition and state intervention in birth control with the one child policy, the often problematic
consequences of demographic transition are emerging at a faster pace in China, alongside
additional ones. These challenges include: low fertility and relaxation of the one child policy,
gender imbalance and other social consequences of the fertility policy, long-term shrinking
workforce and ageing population, and environmental degradation and resource
“Taking an integrated
consumption. Prof. Li explained that these problems not only pose challenges to
China’s continued development, but also have far-reaching global implications.
approach to
Taking the global economy, these population dynamics are resulting in declining
population, health
labour and increasing costs, at the same time as resources are reallocated
and environmental
towards the ageing society and shifts from an export-orientated economy.
challenges is the way
There are also implications for global environmental change, with China’s
forward”
shifting population structure resulting in changes to life styles and consumption
Dr. Vik Mohan,
patterns. Prof. Li’s final message was that international migration is likely
Blue Ventures.
to increase, with immigration to China for work and labour coinciding with
emigration for labour and investment purposes.
Discussion
Dr. Karen Hardee of Population Reference Bureau who chaired the session asked Prof. Li
whether, in the areas of China where there are some opportunities for couples to have a
second child, they are doing so. This was the start of many questions focusing on the possible
relaxation, as well as the ethics, of China’s one child policy. Prof. Li explained that there is no
single one child policy, the policy varies according to province and personal circumstances.
Taking the example of Jiangsu province, Prof. Li explained that while couples living there
are eligible to have a second child if they are themselves both only children, a survey has
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
indicated that only around 50% of women in this situation would choose to. This indicates
that a preference for fewer children is coinciding with rising living standards in China. While
the one child policy does have supporters, Prof. Li highlighted that even in China there is
resistance to the policy, including from academics, the general public and some government
officials. This means that even if other countries did wish to instigate a similar policy, it would
be difficult. Responding to a question about the impact of the policy on China’s sex ratio, Prof.
Li acknowledged that the sex ratio is skewed in China. But even in provinces where a one child
policy is not in place the sex ratio is skewed, due to strong cultural preference for sons. This
situation is paralleled in India, where there is no one child policy but the sex ratio is also highly
unequal. Dr. Jejeebhoy explained that contrary to all expectations, the recent Indian census
showed that the proportion of females is continuing to decline. In 2001, in the age group 0-6
years there were 927 girls to every 1000 boys, yet in 2011 only 914 girls, which she attributed
largely to the use of sex-selective abortion by wealthier families.
© Teddy Hla
Furthering discussion of the impacts of cultural influences on fertility, concern was expressed
about the lack of individual choice Indian adolescents have over when and who they marry. Dr.
Jejeebhoy confirmed that around 95% of marriages in India are arranged, and that few people
meet their marriage partner before the ceremony. Despite the law prohibiting marriage below
the age of 18 for women and below the age of 21 for men, and recent introductions of severe
penalties, there are many young marriages, with around 50% of women’s families breaking
the law. Additionally, Dr. Jejeebhoy was asked about the use of female sterilisation in India for
contraceptive purposes, and about efforts to prolong fertility. She explained that more recently the
government has increasingly sought to promote non-terminal contraceptive methods, particularly
among the young, yet both cultural and systemic factors have resulted in little postponement of
child bearing following marriage. It is common for service providers to assume that young couples
don’t want to delay births, and that later on when they do wish to control their fertility after having
children, that they will use female sterilisation. An additional barrier to the uptake of a range of
contraceptive options for postponement of births is the huge social pressure placed on women
to prove their fertility after marriage. Following discussion earlier in the day about the role that
reductions in child mortality can play in facilitating fertility reductions, Prof. John Guillebaud asked
Dr. Mohan whether improved child survival may have played a role in increasing acceptance of
and demand for family planning in Madagascar. Dr. Mohan responded that this didn’t appear to
be the case, because in the region of Madagascar where Blue Ventures is working, child mortality
remains high with one in nine children dying before the age of five. Despite this, there has still
been rapid uptake of the family planning services offered by the integrated population, health and
environment project.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
© Teddy Hla
Population growth – Problem or Hype?
A lively panel discussion provided an energetic and at times heated end to the first day. This session
focused on a highly contentious question which is central to the issue of global carrying capacity and
the conference theme; whether the issue of population growth presents a serious issue for global
sustainability. This question in itself of course raises many more. Have Malthusian concerns about
the planet’s capacity to provide for increasing populations been long proven wrong by technological
advancement? Or perhaps global population growth is the wrong focus entirely diverting much
needed attention away from the ‘real’ issues, such as unsustainable rates of consumption and
wealth and power inequities between the global North and South.
Opening up the dialogue, this session captured a broad range of perspectives
on population and carrying capacity issues, with three short yet dynamic
introductions by speakers presenting their main thoughts on the ‘problem or hype’
conundrum before the debate was widened to the floor. Ms. Karen Newman of
Population and Sustainability Network began by welcoming the panel with words
of encouragement, exclaiming “we mustn’t be afraid of complexity – complexity is
not chaos!”
“The idea that we would
choose between
either population or
consumption as being
‘the’ real problem is
foolish”
Mr. Robert Engelman,
World Watch Institute.
Mr. Robert Engelman of World Watch Institute took to the floor first. While
strongly opposing the notion of choosing between population or consumption,
he made the case that population is clearly part of the mix and a strong
component of sustainability. The fact that developing countries themselves are
identifying population growth as an issue affecting their resilience to climate change, is just one
reason why we need to talk about these issues, he argued. Another is that 54% of all greenhouse
gas emissions now come from developing countries – a reason not to view it as a North/South
issue he warned. Perhaps of most interest, Mr. Engelman offered the following declaration and call
to action; population growth could decline after peaking at the end of the century, if the necessary
urgent investment in family planning be made to ensure that all women are able to decide the
number and timing of their pregnancies.
Dr. Betsy Hartmann, of Hampshire College Population and Development Program, began by
explaining that she is greatly committed to sexual and reproductive health and rights and is an
environmentalist. It is for these very reasons that she is concerned with the current resurgence
of ‘population alarmism’. Population interests primarily in the UK and US, she argued are
responsible for spreading the message that population growth in the global South is key to
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
“Family planning is
worthwhile in its own
right to meet men and
women’s needs to
plan their families”
Dr. Betsy Hartmann,
Hampshire College.
addressing climate change, poverty and political instability. Playing on fear
in this way will mean a step backward she said, warning: “Make no mistake,
population control is back in vogue”. Offering women as a ‘scapegoat’ and a
distraction from the real, deeper causes of inequitable and harmful systems
of resource production, consumption and distribution, this strategy also
plays into the hands of climate change deniers and anti-abortion groups, she
claimed. In conclusion, Dr. Hartmann reiterated that “advancing reproductive
rights and health should be the ends, and means of international family
planning programs”.
Mr. Fred Pearce, author and journalist, came from an entirely different angle
and a rather more optimistic one concerning population trends, beginning with
the announcement “the good news is we are defusing the population bomb”.
The basis for this he claimed, is that today’s women have just half as many
children as their mothers. This ‘reproductive revolution’ is taking place even in
the developing world, where the same women who are often portrayed as the
‘villains’ in the population story are having less children “because they can”.
With the ‘population bomb’ in hand Mr Pearce argued, the world still has big
problems, with rising consumption and the threat of climate change “we haven’t
even begun to diffuse the consumption bomb”.
“African women are
saying for themselves
that they want to have
fewer children”
Dr. Eliya Zulu,
African Institute for
Development Policy.
© Teddy Hla
Dr. Eliya Zulu of the African Institute for Development Policy
provided a final perspective, and one from the global South which
challenged several key arguments made by his fellow panellists.
He began with a call for people to examine the evidence about
the impact of population growth in developing countries,
arguing that the primary concern for slowing population growth
in Africa and the least developed countries is for development
reasons, and because it is critical for climate change mitigation
and adaptation in those countries. For these reasons, Dr. Zulu
explained, there is now increasing support from family planning
by political leadership in the South, and because “African
women are saying for themselves that they want to have fewer
children”. We must therefore challenge the notion that family
planning programmes are ‘top down’ and imposed on developing
countries by the global North. National and international support
for family planning is important he warned; “the problem won’t
take care of itself... there is no country where birth rates have
gone down without an organised family planning programme”.
Discussion
Chairing the session, Ms. Newman began the discussion by taking Dr. Zulu’s argument that
family planning doesn’t happen by itself and invited Mr. Pearce to respond to that, given
evidence that investment in family planning is crumbling. Mr. Pearce responded that he
wasn’t suggesting that investment wasn’t needed, but rather that if women do not want to be
pregnant they will find ways of not having children, be it through unsafe abortion, or perhaps
by sterilisation if the contraception options they would like are not available. On this issue Mr.
Engelman disagreed that women always find a way, which received a round of applause from the
audience. He added that he has spoken with many women around the world who have clearly
stated “I never intended to be the mother of this many children”.
Discussion also focused on the ethical issues raised by Dr. Hartmann about linking population
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
issues to climate change. Acknowledging the need to prevent it being seen
as a ‘blame’ issue, Ms. Newman asked whether it is legitimate to discuss
population dynamics in relation to climate change, when developing countries
themselves are identifying population growth as confounding climate change
adaptation efforts. Responding to this point, Dr. Hartmann agreed that
population dynamics are relevant, but expressed concern about population
issues becoming too central to climate change adaptation and diverting
attention away from issues of social inequalities which undermine adaptation.
Based on previous experiences, she argued there’s also a risk that family
planning programmes are not monitored effectively by donors and may be
coercive. On this point, Dr. Zulu commented that issues of women’s rights are
becoming more and more entrenched in family planning programmes in Africa,
which he believes are genuinely seeking to meet the needs of women.
“There has to be a way
of rehabilitating the
word ‘population’ so
that people don’t hear
the word ‘control’
after it”
Karen Newman,
Population and
Sustainability Network.
Turning to comments from the audience, one which was particularly well received was made by
Mr. Leo Bryant of Marie Stopes International. He stated that if the UK’s population was set to
double or triple in the next 40 years and it emerged that this population growth was because only
20% of British women could access quality information and sexual health services (as is the case
for some developing countries) we would certainly be discussing the issue of reproductive health
and increasing access to family planning. In making this point he asked the question whether it
was in fact patronising developing countries to say that we shouldn’t talk about population issues.
Ms. Merge Berer of Reproductive Health Matters suggested that while a great number of reasons
for a focus on family planning had been discussed through the first day, family planning must be
recognised and promoted as valid in its own right, as a matter of women’s needs. Dr. Hartmann
agreed wholeheartedly with this point, reiterating “we need to revisit and rebuild a human rights
and health motivation for family planning”.
© Teddy Hla
Mr. Mike Williams of the BBC asked the panel to revisit and respond to the original panel question
of “Population growth – Problem or Hype”, to which Mr. Engelman responded by suggesting
that the media, as well as people’s own natural tendencies, drive issues in this oversimplified
manner; for example that the problem must be either ‘population’ or ‘consumption’. Concluding
an extremely rich discussion with a rare point of agreement with which to move the population
agenda further, Ms. Newman stated the importance of making sure that the women who currently
don’t have access to the contraception aren’t made to wait until all of the other complex and
pressing issues raised by the debate have been addressed.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
5. Day 2 Proceedings:
From Numbers to
Action
Moving Further, Living Longer
© Teddy Hla
This session provided insight into the relevance of social inequalities, migration and ageing to
global carrying capacity, with a global perspective informed by a particular focus on how the
interaction of these dynamics globally impact on the UK and in Asia.
Prof. Danny Dorling of the University of Sheffield began his
presentation by exclaiming “we live in an incredible state of fear” –
fear that others want to come in and take what we have. He then
went on to argue that despite the saliency of the issue of migration
in the UK, migration should not be feared. Rather, it is the issue of
below replacement fertility, combined with population ageing, that
presents a problem, but one that is actually solved by migration –
because global lifetime cohort migration irons out declines and rises
in fertility. He stated that it is wealth and wealth inequalities that
present a real problem, as the drivers of unsustainable consumption.
In more unequal affluent countries both rich and poor consume
more, because people strive to keep up with those with more than
themselves. For this reason he argued, it is tackling vast wealth
inequalities which holds the key. Arising as a result of these inequalities, Prof. Dorling referred to the
system of “global apartheid” that is enforced through passports and immigrations controls, which has
been instigated in order to protect the wealth of rich nations, that we fear losing to
“If you are worried
others. Yet this is no long term solution he argued, and encouraged the audience to
about resource
share his vision of an alternative, future world: “a world in which we people didn’t
constraints you need
have to have passports... in which we didn’t have to put gates around ourselves to
protect ourselves; we could move freely between countries”. He then concluded
to worry about the US
with a refreshingly optimistic outlook, explaining that from the 1920s through to the
and the UK – we are
early 1970s the UK achieved dramatic reductions in inequality – so if we’ve done it
the problem”
before we can do it again. But firstly, to achieve these reductions in inequality and
Prof. Danny Dorling,
to turn the vision of a world without passports into a reality, society must see the
University
of Sheffield.
outcome of increasing inequality as desirable, and learn to live with less fear.
Prof. Brenda Yeoh gave a fascinating presentation on changing demography, the crisis of care and
feminized transational migration in Asia. This presentation focused on how changes to the organisation
of productive and reproductive labour within the family have occurred due to globalisation, rapid
and uneven economic development and increased migration in Asia, and the resulting changes
to the region’s demography. Prof. Yeoh introduced three concepts showing the ways that families
and households are adapting in the face of these challenges. Firstly, there is a growing incidence of
‘transnational families’, with families becoming increasingly mobile or with transnational separations
between core members. Secondly, to create and sustain households internationally, practices of ‘global
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Prof. Sarah Harper, Director of the Oxford Institute of Population
Ageing, gave the final presentation of the day, addressing the
global trend of population ageing. She began with an observation
about the way that the two big challenges of climate change
and population ageing are working against each other; with
environmentalists stressing the need for reduced consumption,
but economists concerned that productivity must be increased
to support ageing populations. Providing an illustration of global
ageing trends Prof. Harper spoke of an additional two ‘parallel
worlds’ – the developing world where fertility is still high, and
elsewhere where fertility is declining at the same time as dramatic
increases in longevity taking are taking place. She provided some
startling statistics on these trends; within 15 years half of Western
Europe will be aged over 50, and in the UK life expectancy is
increasing by 8 hours for every day. With life expectancy currently
highest for women in Japan and France at 88
“People have woken
years, and lowest for women in Sierra Leone at
up to the fact that
just 35 years, she explained that demographers
population is a very
are beginning to ask “is the new longevity going to be the new inequality?”. After
outlining a range of significant impacts for both the societies and economies
important issue for the
of ageing countries, Ms. Harper turned to some possible strategies for an
21st century”
ageing world. These included adaptations to financial systems to longevity and
Prof. Sarah Harper,
dependency shifts, providing life-long learning, evolving acute medicine to public
Oxford Institute of
health and long-term care, and lastly but by no means insignificantly, addressing
Population Ageing. the interactions between ageing populations and the environment.
Discussion
Prof. Ronald Skeldon of the University of Sussex began the discussion session by thanking the
speakers for such diverse insights. Stemming from Prof. Harper’s presentation the panel were
invited to give their views on the retirement age. Prof. Dorling began by stating that he would
be in favour of keeping it at 65 in the UK (referring to the state pension age) and expressed
disagreement with the view that people working for longer is necessary for the economy. Instead
he suggested that there could be less employment in jobs that he deemed to be unnecessary, but
24
© Teddy Hla
© Teddy Hla
householding’ are being utilised across borders, including foreign
domestic workers or marriages to a foreign spouse. Resulting from
these other two concepts, a ‘global care chain’ is emerging, with
‘outsourcing’ of domestic labour to maids, nannies and care workers.
This recruitment from abroad sets off another round of care transfers
and dilutes the value of care work, with caring repeatedly ‘offloaded’
to other women who are unpaid. An example of this is the mother of
a domestic maid taking on care responsibilities for their grandchild.
As well as being genderised strategies, Prof. Yeoh explained that
there are clear class dimensions involved, with the middle and
working classes in both sending and receiving countries entering
into the feminized transnational migration chain in different ways.
Turning lastly to policy implications with respect to citizenship, Prof.
Yeoh emphasised the need to work towards emancipatory notions
of citizenship and residency pathways for migrants and members of
transnational families and households, while seeking to address the
gender inequalities underlying these strategies.
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
with people paid better overall for their work, which is the case in many more equal societies he
explained. Setting this more radical vision of an alternative economic system aside, Prof. Harper
stated that with many people in the UK expected to live up to the age of one hundred it is highly
likely that the UK state retirement age will reach 70 by 2030 and possibly 75 by the middle of
the century. Yet she also raised the need to consider the difference between life expectancy and
healthy life expectancy, with disability having cost implications and increasing the need for carers.
“Our life courses are going to have to change... we will probably be active and productive for
much longer” she explained, and added that working longer is not only about money, but is also
important for people’s status and as a way of staying active and contributing to society.
On the topic of the global implications of international migration there was discussion of the
implications for local culture and possible loss of local identity. Both Prof. Harper and Prof. Yeoh
expressed positive views about the way that customs and culture are evolving, resulting partly
from globalisation and transnationalism, while noting that identities are always somewhat fluid.
Referring to the many transnational marriages and partnership that take place in Singapore, Prof.
Yeoh suggested that these relationships make people more accepting of difference. Additionally,
communication technologies, including social networking, were identified as contributing to a
world where people think more globally, and as transforming and facilitating social relations in
such a transnational world. Prof. Yeoh gave the example of how these technologies allow Filipino
women working as domestic workers overseas to ‘mother from a distance’, for example by texting
wake up calls to their children.
Public Health Impacts and Interventions
© Teddy Hla
Turning to the significance of public health impacts and interventions, presenters in this session
shared reflections on the population footprints theme from their own human health, environment
or global endurance perspective, while contributing to more overarching conclusions about
population footprints impacts and implications.
Prof. Sir John Beddington, Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK
Government, gave the first presentation, focusing on the ‘perfect
storm’ of challenges facing the world. The inter-connected
drivers of this storm, he explained, are increasing population,
increasing urbanisation, the rightful goal to alleviate poverty and
climate change. Between now and 2030 demand for food is set
to increase by 40%, and demand for both energy and water by
30%; at the same time climate change increases the difficulties
of meeting these demands and necessitates transition to greener
energy and agricultural production. With water shortages
already affecting both developed and developing countries, and
the availability of agricultural land declining, Prof. Beddington
highlighted the major contribution that science and technology
must play. He argued that ‘sustainable intensification’ is needed,
referring to transition to an agriculture which is high production,
intensified and resilient, but also sustainable and low in
emissions. At the same time as presenting major challenges, climate change he noted, presents
“enormous opportunities” in the way of ‘climate smart agriculture’. This refers to agricultural
practices which support climate change mitigation by offsetting carbon. An example of this is
the adoption of agroforesty practices which also offer additional benefits to farming communities
in developing countries, including increased income, reduced vulnerability to climate change
and conservation of biodiversity. Lastly, providing an example of the type of new technological
solutions required, the audience was encouraged by an image of ‘fog harvesting’ in South Africa,
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
demonstrating the use of nets to capture water.
© Teddy Hla
Dr. Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, from WHO, added a further dimension to the session by
examining the links between population, environmental degradation and health, and in doing
so emphasised the benefits that would be brought to both maternal and child health and the
environment by addressing unmet need for family planning. After highlighting the significant need
to address the child mortality rates that coincide with high fertility, he explained that increasing
wealth and healthier, longer lives bring their own problems. Namely, they correlate directly with
increasing environmental impact, and are degrading the ecosystems that are central to public
health. Dr. Campbell-Lendrum warned that climate change, without effective responses will
compromise water quality and quantity, food security, control of infectious disease and protection
from disasters. Demonstrating the extent to which many of the largest disease burdens are linked
to climate and the environment, every year poor water and sanitation kills over 3 million people,
and undernutrition another 3.5 million. Turning to the implications of these findings for public
health interventions, Dr. Campbell-Lendrum argued that we must aim for long, healthy lives at
low ecological cost. This he urged is possible, and could be achieved in part by emphasising
positive health, environment and development benefits. For example, improved cooking stoves
could save 2 million lives over 10 years in India alone, and reduce warming from black carbon, and
sustainable urban transport could cut heart disease and stroke by up to 20%. In conclusion, Dr.
Campbell-Lendrum argued: “we should not aim for dramatically fewer people, but lower impact /
higher productivity per person”.
Dr. Ndola Prata’s presentation gave a highly informative and
inspiring overview of the importance of family planning as a
key public health intervention. She began by sharing some
alarming facts; each year there are 75 million unintended
pregnancies, 300,000 maternal deaths, and 21.6 million unsafe
abortions. All of these issues she added, could be reduced
with family planning provision; yet 215 million women have an
unmet need for contraception. Arguing that family planning is
therefore a cost effective public health intervention that must
be prioritised, she set out important components of delivery
programmes in order to facilitate easy access to family planning
services. These include correct information
“We cannot continue
about contraceptive options, comprehensive
sexual and reproductive health education for
to let mothers
youth, affordable prices, choice of methods
and children die
and access to safe abortion. Sharing some
because of unwanted
recommendations for innovative delivery
pregnancy”
systems, she highlighted the role that social marketing and franchising, publicDr. Ndola Prata,
private partnerships, and task shifting among health workers can play in
Bixby Centre for
ensuring that commodities and services are available at the community level.
Population Health,
Dr. Prata concluded with a moving anecdote that demonstrates the empowering
nature of family planning, and just how highly it is valued by women. Working
University of California
in a village in Ethiopia, she asked a woman who had access to a local family
at Berkeley.
planning programme what her greatest success of that year had been, to which
the woman responded: “I did not get pregnant”.
Discussion
Dr. Sarah Hawkes of UCL opened the panel for discussion. Prof. Stephen Bown of UCL asked
Prof. Sir Beddington to what extent he felt food and water availability could be addressed by
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tackling demand in terms of population numbers or demand per
se. In response Prof. Beddington highlighted some clear winwins for reducing demand, not only those associated with health
benefits, for example by reducing over-consumption in countries
of the global North, but also by tackling waste. Illustrating this
point he explained that in developed countries 50 per cent of all
food is discarded after purchase, and in developing countries
50 per cent is wasted prior to purchase, due to pest infestations
and poor storage etc. In his presentation Prof. Beddington had
explained that demand was set to increase from consumers in
developing countries rising out of poverty, leading in particular to
increased demand for resource-intensive foods such as meat and dairy products. He highlighted
therefore that any attempt to address these issues necessitates tackling demand and overconsumption in developed countries.
Following a question from Prof. Anthony Costello of UCL, discussion took place on the role of
financial systems, and particularly speculation in food derivatives, in contributing to volatility of
food prices. This question referred to explanations in Prof. Beddington’s presentation that in 2008,
then followed again in 2010/2011, international food prices increased for the first time in 20 or 30
years, reversing what had been a trend towards a moderate improvement in food poverty. Looking
at the recent situation of this year and last, Prof. Beddington demonstrated that it is common for a
number of factors to combine to increase food prices, including financial factors. Both last year in
Pakistan, and this year in China, excess rainfall has reduced harvest at the same time as exports
have been banned, and this effect has been amplified by commodity markets leading to price
increases. He added that with respect to the rice market however, due to financial agreements
particularly in South East Asia, exporting countries haven’t banned exports but have created
reserves which have meant that prices have increased less than other commodities recently.
Stemming from Dr. Campbell-Lendrum’s presentation, a question was put to him about the
possible links between population pressures and risk of conflict. He responded that while the
complex nature of conflict means that there is a lack of strong evidence on this issue, there is
evidence from Sudan for example, where population growth is very high, that competition over
resources compounded by climate change has contributed to conflict. Historically, large cohorts
of young unemployed men have also been associated with risk of conflict. For these reasons
he concluded that it does seem highly plausible that better resource management combined
with transition to population stabilisation would decrease the risk of conflict. Further discussion
took place about the need to encourage men to take responsibility for their fertility and the role
that male contraceptives could play in that. On this issue Dr. Prata explained that currently male
sterilisation is really the only contraceptive available to men, yet as a surgical procedure it isn’t
widely available or ideal for many men. She added that the importance of male involvement in
fertility management is being recognised increasingly, and overcoming the lack of information
available to men, to increase their understanding of contraceptives, would help reduce male
opposition to contraceptives. At the same time however, as a matter of human rights women must
be able to access contraceptives that they can use without their partners’ knowledge if necessary,
and service providers have to respect this need for confidentiality.
Economic Planning Challenges: Beyond 2015
Bringing an economic perspective to the symposium themes, this session examined potential
solutions to the economic challenges posed by the Population Footprints conundrum, sharing
regional solutions at the same time as reflecting on the challenges and future planning issues
global leaders face in relation to the footprints agenda.
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Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu, Minister for Planning, Uganda, gave the
first presentation of the session, offering insight based on the
experience of Uganda: a country where the population is growing
by 3.2% a year and 50% of the population is under the age of 15.
These population dynamics present many challenges for economic
development and make structural transformation of the economy
urgent. With 0.5 million Ugandans entering the labour market every
year, job creation is a major priority for the Ugandan Government.
In a predominantly rural country, Prof. Kamuntu explained that
radical changes are needed over the coming decades to drive
industrialisation, including urbanisation and a focus on transport
and energy infrastructure. Recognising that investments in family
planning now result in cost savings in the future, Uganda’s national
vision and development plan which seeks to drive and sustain
economic growth calls for a holistic approach to population
planning. Prof. Kamuntu concluded by stating that Uganda has an
opportunity to capitalise on demographic dividend offered by the
young generation entering the workforce, yet this requires critical
policy measures in family planning, public health, education and the
economy.
Dr. Mairo Mandara, Senior Advisor to the Senior Special Assistant
to the President of Nigeria on the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs), provided an informative synopsis of the challenges faced
by Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, in achieving the
MDGs. While Nigeria has achieved significant economic growth
in recent years, its population is growing fast at more than three
per cent a year, presenting a significant obstacle to achieving
the MDGs. According to Dr. Mandara, this means that Nigeria
is unlikely to reach the MDGs, without measures to ensure
sustainable economic planning and significant investments in
social infrastructure, particularly health and education. With debt
relief funds secured in 2005 to help Nigeria achieve the MDGs,
they are closely integrated with Nigeria’s national development
agenda and there is governmental support and funding for
key areas that directly impact the MDGs, including health and
education. This offers clear opportunities for Nigeria to drive
progress, and Nigeria has recently begun to roll out free family
planning and has allocated money for free maternal health commodities. Dr. Mandara concluded
that looking to 2015 and beyond, the key to addressing Nigeria’s development challenges “lies not
only in managing our population but importantly in ensuring transparency and good governance
that supports translation of our economic growth into improvements in the lives of people
particularly women and children”.
Dr. Monica Das Gupta, Senior Demographer at the World Bank, provided a informative overview of
a literature review on the economic implications of high fertility, presenting a rationale for reducing
high fertility in low-income countries. She started by explaining that there is broad consensus
in the literature that while policy and institutional settings are key in shaping the prospects
of economic growth, the rate of population growth also matters. Recent studies find that low
dependency ratios resulting from fertility declines create opportunities for economic growth, and
that lower fertility is associated with a range of benefits, including better health, schooling and
greater labourforce participation of women. There is also evidence that rapid population growth
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can constrain economic growth, especially in low-income countries with poor policy environments.
Furthermore, reductions in population growth can mitigate pressures on common property
resources. Dr. Das Gupta then turned to a question with clear public policy implications; and family
planning programmes are effective. The evidence does show that family planning programmes are
effective in reducing fertility and Dr. Das Gupta stressed that female education and reducing child
mortality are additional policy levers to help reduce fertility. Based on this evidence Dr. Das Gupta
concluded that the rationale for public funding of family planning programmes is clear. Lastly she
added that Sub-Saharan Africa in particular could gain from greater investment in family planning,
given that high fertility and institutional constraints to economic growth in this region combine to
slow rise in living standards.
Discussion
Prof. Costas Meghir of UCL who chaired the session thanked the panel for their insightful
presentations and invited questions from the audience. Reflecting some of the same issues raised
in the panel debate the previous day, a question was asked about whether advocates of family
planning may have failed to generate sufficient investment in family planning because family
planning has been portrayed as simply a health issue. Instead, it was suggested that the case
should be made that it provides significant returns on investment outside of health, and therefore
population should be of concern to many additional government ministries, including finance,
planning, agriculture and even security. Dr. Mandara revealed that it was precisely this strategy that
had secured funding for increased midwifery and nursing staff in Kano State in Nigeria and led to
the issue now being championed by the Ministry of Women’s Affairs. Recognising that the Ministry
of Health had not made the progress required, she explained that a meeting was instead held with
other government departments, during which they were sensitised to the human impacts of a lack
of reproductive health services, by focusing on the links with maternal mortality.
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A question about the relative carrying capacity of Uganda prompted discussion about the extent to
which there is a recognition in Africa that while there is a need for increased agricultural production,
ultimately the number of people that a resource base can support is limited. Reflecting on this issue
Prof. Kamuntu stated that Uganda faces the challenge of ensuring that the country is able to make
sufficient use of its natural resources, including fertile land and oil, in order to spur development,
at the same time as making sure that its population doesn’t present a barrier to this. On this topic
Dr. Das Gupta highlighted that in many African countries poor soil quality is being exacerbated
by population growth, and that soil quality is a highly significant variable for carrying capacity. An
interesting discussion also took place on strategies for overcoming barriers to reproductive health
presented by religion. Reflecting on her experiences in Nigeria, Dr. Mandara stated that “fighting
religion is a failed war”. Instead she explained, it is necessary to find ways of working and navigating
religious and cultural ideologies. For example, they have had some success in working with Muslim
communities in Nigeria by emphasising that the Koran promotes child spacing.
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A final keynote address by Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin, UNFPA
Executive Director, provided an exciting start to the concluding
session. Prof. Osotimehin began with the reminder that according
to UN population projections, as of 31 October this year we will be
a world of 7 billion people – 2 billion of which will be made up of
young people, mostly living in the global South. Highlighting that
the decisions these young people will make have the potential to
make the world a better place, Prof. Osotimehin
made the case that empowering and engaging
“The two billion
with the world’s young people, and ensuring
young people today
that they have access to education, information
will determine the
and services, is key to addressing the challenges of a 7 billion world. Arguing
momentum of
that with the 20 year anniversary of the 1994 International Conference on
population growth –
Population and Development approaching there is a need to review and
so let’s talk to them”
reposition the ways we advance sexual and reproductive health and rights,
Prof. Babatunde Prof. Osotimehin provided a stark warning that “there are many forces that are
Osotimehin, Executive working against the progressive ideas we enunciated in Cairo”. He therefore
Director, UNFPA. appealed to delegates to think about how we can define the new language and
space necessary to respond to these challenges.
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Keynote address: Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin
Discussion
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Mr. Richard Ottaway MP began by thanking Prof. Babatunde for his address. Responding to
remarks he made about the potential for the recent instability in Northern Africa to spread to
other countries if we do not successfully engage and empower young people, Mr. Ottaway
encouraged Prof. Osotimehin to pay continued consideration to issues such as conflict, migration
and resource scarcity. He stated that these are common concerns people have when thinking
about population. A second question was put to Prof. Osotimehin by Mr. Bjorn Andersson of the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden. In a political environment where increasing focus is being
placed on demonstrating results from overseas development aid, Mr. Andersson asked Prof.
Osotimehin “how do we select the priorities and make the linkages we do, in such a way that we
can communicate with policy makers all over the world?”. On a similar theme, Ms. Karen Newman
of Population and Sustainability Network asked how we can ensure that we engage with a range
of complex and sensitive issues relating to population dynamics in a way that secures increased
investment for programmes that respect and protect rights.
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Responding to Mr. Richard Ottaway MP, Prof. Osotimehin urged caution against viewing
complicated concerns relating to population dynamics, such as migration, poverty and conflict,
as static rather than dynamic issues necessitating a multi-pronged approach. Investing in the
population through the provision of education and promoting rights is the way to avert these crises,
he added. Turning then to the questions relating to influencing policy makers and generating funding
for rights-based sexual and reproductive health services, Prof. Osotimehin pointed to the need for
advocacy and engagement with parliamentarians, given that they hold the power to allocate and put
the necessary funding, resources, and policies in place. He concluded by re-iterating that “family
planning is integral to the Cairo agenda... we must provide it on a basis of rights”.
Policy and Research Directions
Looking to the future, speakers in this session sought to both summarise and draw conclusions
from their own environment, population or climate change perspective, at the same time as
proposing future policy and research directions and questions. Dr. Richard Horton, Editor of the
Lancet, introduced the session. He stated that he believed the symposium had provided direction,
ambition, and lastly hope, by bringing opportunities for shared interests to come together to
discuss what can be done, for which the final session provides direction.
Dr. Cecilia Tacoli of the International Institute for Environment and Development gave a
presentation, looking beyond the issue of population size to ask whether population distribution,
and particularly urbanisation, is a problem or in fact part of the solution. She began by challenging
some common perceptions of urbanisation, highlighting for example that urban centres do not
all contribute disproportionately to climate change, but instead can offer economies of scale and
other energy saving opportunities. An additional benefit that urbanisation can bring is lower fertility
rates, although Dr. Tacoli added that this is not always the case amongst the poorest communities
if service provision does not directly benefit the poorest groups. Turning to look at the ways in
which urbanisation could contribute to a green economy, she argued that however that is defined,
it can only be truly green if it addresses inequalities in the division of labour, including those
relating to migration and gender. She highlighted that a large number of activities that contribute
to a green economy are undertaken by the poor in urban areas, giving the examples of recycling
by waste pickers and systems of local food production which reduce transport-related emissions.
These activities however, often include health risks and deserve more recognition. In conclusion,
Dr. Tacoli argued that rather than attempting to slow urbanisation, which she added often achieves
little more than worsening the living conditions of migrants to urban areas, there needs to be a shift
in perceptions. This would mean policies that recognise ‘the urban potential’ and invest in making
cities and towns part of the solution.
Ms. Siri Tellier began her presentation by highlighting that there appears to be consensus that the
world population will continue to grow, probably until at least 2070, and the biggest determinant of
the size of this population growth will be family planning. With research and data on this issue readily
available, she stated that the focus must be on getting the messages right and ensuring sufficient
understanding of these issues. With respect to the key human rights issue of the 215 million women
who have an unmet need for family planning, Ms. Tellier stressed the necessity of understanding the
reasons for this. While access issues are better understood, the real concern that many women have
about the side effects of contraception must be acknowledged. To address this she suggested more
work to develop and offer better contraceptive options, including those for males and additionally,
acknowledgment of the reasons for the opposition to family planning, which present a barrier to
advancing long agreed approaches to population and reproductive health issues. Further policy
and research suggestions posed included work to advance valuable community-based integrated
population, health and environment approaches, such as research determining whether they are
effective, sustainable and replicable. Ms. Tellier concluded with a recommendation that with women,
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communities and nations expressing their desire for family planning, we must not be shy about
linking reproductive health and rights to climate change adaptation, while taking the advancement of
choice and human rights as a common point of departure.
Prof. Chris Rapley CBE, Professor of Climate Science of UCL, commenced by congratulating
the symposium on promoting the important inter-disciplinary working that is necessary for
overcoming so many of the barriers we face in addressing such complex problems. As the basis
for his presentation, he outlined the UNFCCC goal of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. This is the agreed level of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent (450
ppm CO2e), roughly equated with a 2 oC rise in temperature. He warned however, that humanity
may now exceed this, with the process by which nations seek to work together to achieve this
stabilisation having collapsed at the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. Explaining the
Kaya Identity equation which identifies the four different variables which determine CO2 emissions,
Prof. Rapley outlined that these are: global population, global per-capita gross domestic product
(GDP), energy intensity of world GDP and carbon intensity of energy. With both population and GDP
set to rise without question, and with them carbon emissions, the significant role that technology,
including renewable energy, must play in reducing emissions was emphasised. Additionally, given
the sheer scale of the problem we face, Prof. Rapley clearly challenged what he referred to as “the
false dichotomy” that we need to focus on either population or consumption more than the other.
Rather, he emphasised that “a million different actions” will determine the level of greenhouse gas
concentrations that we reach in the future. With a final warning that some models take us up to 1000
ppm CO2e by the end of this century, he concluded that only through us all working on individual
policies and making them work on the ground will we prevent this.
Discussion
Following on from Dr. Cecilia Tacoli’s presentation and reference to ways, such as waste
recycling, that the poor are contributing to the green economy, a question was asked about
whether it is right to promote such activities which have inherent health risks. In response Dr.
Tacoli suggested that if perceptions about issues relating to urban poverty can be changed
this could result in policies that are not only benefit to the urban poor, but also recognise
their contribution to the urban and green economy. Taking the issue of waste pickers, she
suggested that if policies recognised this task it could facilitate better organisation of these
activities, leading to financial benefits for those involved as well as regulations addressing safety
issues. Like waste picking, she also highlighted that the growth of slums is merely seen as an
annoyance, meaning that the prevailing policy is for eviction and destruction, which doesn’t
address the underlying problems and exacerbates urban poverty.
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A question from Mr. Roger Harrabin of the BBC promoted further
discussion on climate change policy, after he invited Prof.
Rapley to clarify his position on the UNFCCC stabilisation target
level of 450 ppm CO2e in response to a previous misquote in the
press. Prof. Rapley confirmed that he is “very uncomfortable”
about the possibility that humanity may exceed the 450 ppm
CO2e stabilisation target. With this the case, and now that
there is only a voluntary set of agreements by nations to curb
emissions, he highlighted the importance of acknowledging that
it is now unclear at what level emissions will peak, and that they
could be significantly more than 450 ppm CO2e. While there is
a necessary focus on adaptation as well as mitigation, “there
are certain things you can’t adapt to” he warned, providing
the example of simultaneous drought in all of the agriculturally
productive areas of the planet. He concluded by noting that at
the same time, frightening people doesn’t help, so instead we
must engage them with this dialogue. Adding to this discussion
Ms. Tellier made a remark that appeared to echo common sentiments at the symposium,
expressing her hope that we find the political will to do something about climate change, not just
because of the links with family planning, but for the sake of the young people of the future.
Prof. Anthony Costello, Director of UCL Institute for Global Health, concluded the conference with
the message that while there had been many different technical points of disagreement, what is
much greater than what divides us is agreement on the desperate need for greater investment
in women’s health, maternal and child health, family planning and all of the other drivers that will
move us towards population stabilisation. He extended his thanks to the Leverhulme Trust as such
a great and actively involved sponsor of the event, as well as to all of the other organisations and
individuals who played a role in shaping what had been such an outstanding symposium.
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6. Poster
Presentations
A poster display featured at the symposium, sharing 25 poster presentations submitted by
students and academics from over 15 different countries working in population and related
disciplines around the world. Showcasing new or recent work from the global South and
North, the poster addressed practical policy concerns and stimulated new thinking about the
pressing conference themes. Full scholarships (travel, accommodation and conference fee)
were awarded to what were judged to be the best three submissions from the global South,
and three from Europe.
The poster winners were:
Global South:
„„ Protap Mukherjee – Population Dynamics, Environmental Sustainability and Governance: A
Framework for Population Footprints
„„ Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues and Antônio Carlos Coelho Campino – The effect of survivorship
status on public inpatient expenditures in Brazil: a temporal perspective
„„ Lopamudra Saraswati – Environmental Degradation: A State-level Analysis of India
Europe:
„„ Myriam Hemsteede; I Vanwesenbeeck and I Hutter – Sex and population, it takes two to tango
„„ Marzia Lazzarimi – The burden of rapid growth: the case of Angola
„„ Emma Terama and V Skirbekk – Long-term population development and urban quality of life
The posters covered a broad range of topics, from the uptake of family planning among married
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women in Mumbai’s slum communities, to the impact of population ageing upon health care
spending in Brazil. The poster presentations can be viewed via the UCL website: http://www.ucl.
ac.uk/popfootprints/poster_presentations
Select insights from Poster Presentations
„„ “Based on the experience of Papua New Guinea, religion can both help and hinder population
initiatives. Wider discussion of the interplay between religion and health is often overlooked in
the secular health paradigm; yet some aspects of religion can be leveraged to promote better
health outcomes.” From Poster 1 ‘Religion as a determinant of population health: the case of
Sumkar, Papua New Guinea’ Dr. Sima Barmania, University of Glasgow, UK.
„„ “Youth are part of the challenge and the solution to high population momentum in the
Philippines. Innovative programs that encourage youth to become stewards of the environment
and their sexuality can help to reduce population momentum and its consequent impacts on
natural resources by delaying childbearing, increasing birth spacing and reducing unwanted
pregnancy.” From Poster 4 ‘Preparing for “youth bulge” challenges by engaging young Filipinos
in integrated population-environment programs and leadership development’ by Dr. Joan
Regina Castro and Leona D’Agnes, PATH Foundation, Philippines.
„„ “Promoting the right to sexual and reproductive health is a very practical question. It means
refraining from quick or cheap wins- because change doesn’t happen overnight, and it’s not
our place to direct it. But evidence shows that if you give adolescents a platform to consider
and articulate their needs, as well as genuine support to realize their rights, then they will
make the reproductive choices that work for them.” From Poster 5 ‘Providing a replicable,
low-cost model of youth-friendly information and services to improve adolescent sexual and
reproductive health and rights outcomes in India’ by Aoife Charthaigh; Rutti Goldberger and
Rowan Harvey, Interact Worldwide and Plan UK, UK.
„„ “Conventional efforts towards controlling population explosion fail at the grassroots level
in Nigeria because of enduring gender and large household preferences. Critical work
is recommended at the grassroots, through community dialogue and multi-stakeholder
engagement to positively transform traditional societal values.” From Poster 7 ‘Unchanging
values in a changing world: overpopulating the ‘unexpandable’ global place’ by Ndubuisi Chidi
Ezegwu, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
„„ “Conventional efforts towards controlling population explosion fail at the grassroots level
in Nigeria because of enduring gender and large household preferences. Critical work
is recommended at the grassroots, through community dialogue and multi-stakeholder
engagement to positively transform traditional societal values.” From Poster 7 ‘Unchanging
values in a changing world: overpopulating the ‘unexpandable’ global place’ by Ndubuisi Chidi
Ezegwu, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
„„ “Relatively few recent demographic publications consider both ‘Sex’ (Sexual and
Reproductive Rights and Health) and Population. The international population field would
benefit from a greater focus on research combining these issues. Both research and
interventions could adopt a more inclusive and contextualized approach. For instance by
involving men and couples and by paying more attention to the specific contexts operated
in.” From Poster 11 ‘Sex and population, it takes two to tango’ by Myriam Hemsteede
(University of Groningen), I. Vanwesenbeeck (University of Groningen) & I Hutter (Rutgers WPF),
The Netherlands.
„„ “The study defines duties and capability of global organisations involved in the global climate
governance to be responsive to their stakeholders and equitable in their decision making, as
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
a function of their institutional accountability. This includes in particular duties of openness to
diverse sources of, and transparency about the use of, evidence when defining climate change
adaptation strategies, including regarding the role of population dynamics.” From Poster 15
‘Population and Climate Change: the importance of accountability’ by Dr. Susannah Mayhew
and Michael Hammer and the ClimGov Research Team, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, UK.
„„ “Levels of rural-urban migration, urban poverty and the growth of slums have an impact on
urban environmental change and environmental degradation. Urban migration is not going to
stop so good urban governance and planning is needed to plan for and address these interrelated issues.” From Poster 19 ‘Impact of Population, Urbanisation and Consumption Pattern
on Environmental Degradation: A State-level Analysis of India’ by Lopamudra Saraswati,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, India.
„„ “The consequences of long-term demographic change on city development have a measurable
effect on the experienced quality of living, and therefore quality of life and eventually happiness.
It can be said that the low demographic transition multiplier has essentially enabled the success
of the European city.” From Poster 23: ‘Long-term population development and urban quality
of life’ by Emma Terama (UCL) with Dagmar Haase (UFZ & HU) and Vegard Skirbekk (IIASA);
UCL Environment Institute & Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helmholz Centre for
Environmental Research (UFZ), Humboldt University (HU) and International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Statistics Norway.
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„„ “A concerted effort to increase enrolment in primary and secondary education appears to
be the most promising route for Pakistan to move out of poverty and towards sustainable
development. The Millennium Development Goals cannot be achieved in Pakistan without
significantly more investment in education than that of the last two decades.” From Poster 24
‘Defusing the population bomb: Human Capital Population Projection of Pakistan at regional
levels regional levels’ Muhammad Asif Wazir, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
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7. Follow-Up
Stakeholder
Engagement
As a follow-up to the main symposium, on 27 May a smaller meeting took place. This half
day event brought together NGOs, academics, and other stakeholders to explore ongoing
opportunities for advocacy, public policy engagement and collaboration. Ms. Karen Newman of
Population and Sustainability Network facilitated the discussion.
Dr. Richard Horton of The Lancet began the session by providing an overview of key issues raised
by the symposium, focused around four critical questions:
1. Has the planet has reached its environmental limit?
2. What is the future of health and well-being, with respect to environmental issues?
3. What can be done about the issues?
4. What political environment is needed to affect change?
Individual participants then briefly contributed issues which they viewed to be critical in light of the
symposium. Some reoccurring themes from this discussion are reflected in Section 3.
Ongoing engagement opportunities
The remainder of the session focused on possible opportunities for furthering the debate and
collaborative working. A range of ideas were raised; some of these possibilities are set out below.
Advocacy
„„ Work with the health and environmental communities, addressing the common fears and
misconceptions associated with talking about ‘population’
„„ Key forthcoming meetings, including the UN Sustainable Development Conference in 2012, the
International Climate Change Conferences, and international sexual and reproductive health
and rights conferences and forum
„„ Dialogue relating to the follow-up to the Millennium Development Goals – to ensure more
holistic focus on sexual and reproductive health and rights
„„ Sharing resources and advocacy tools
„„ Targeting parliamentarians at national and regional levels, including finance and planning
ministries and other relevant budget holders
Public policy engagement
„„ Focusing on reframing discussions to interest key decision makers with relevant budgets and
help overcome hostility to family planning by US Republicans and other conservative forces
„„ Emphasising the cost-effective nature of family planning
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„„ Using ‘success-stories’ such as voluntary family planning case studies as a means of
communicating the virtues of investments in family planning
Research
„„ Greater collaboration between campaigners, researchers and policy makers to identify
advocacy and policy needs
„„ Improved communication of research findings, learning from PR and market-research fields
„„ Collaboration with policy makers to promote evidence-based policy
„„ Greater advocacy orientated research, including cost-effectiveness on wider topics, including
environmental protection
„„ Link research institutions in the North and South and greater use of research findings from the
South
„„ Individual research funding opportunities were identified.
Fundraising
„„ Greater collaboration between fundraisers and researchers to generate research funding
„„ Encouraging leading funders to ‘champion’ population related issues, to generate greater
interest from additional funders
„„ Linking funders, fundraisers and developing countries seeking funding
Participants volunteered to serve on working groups on these focus areas to carry discussion and
action on these issues forward. Building on the energy captured by the symposium, these are just
some of the opportunities that exist for participants to explore and collaborate on in the coming
months and years, with the potential to further the debate and drive progress on what are already
such critical issues which will only become more pertinent with time.
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8. Use of
Live Social Media
The Population Footprints social media presence consisted of a Twitter account (@UCLPopFoot),
which had 20 followers 2.5 weeks before the conference, and a Facebook page, which had
40 followers. For approximately 2 weeks prior to the Population Footprints conference, the @
UCLPopFoot Twitter account and Facebook page were used to promote the conference, and
publicise useful and relevant news articles, with the aim of raising awareness of the issues, the
conference itself and encouraging engagement with new followers.
Twitter was updated every day, at least twice daily, with a public reminder of activities and events
associated with the conference, and any relevant news items. Links to the Population Footprints
booking page were tweeted twice daily and added to the Facebook page alongside news items.
The Twitter account was expanded by following other relevant Twitter accounts, found by using
the search terms “population”, “climate” and “global health” and by searching lists and accounts
for users who provided biographical information suggesting they might be interested in attending
the conference or following it online.
Requests for retweets (forwarding tweets) were also made, and a number of other accounts
forwarded the Population Footprints information. For example, one retweet regarding the
conference ticket had an audience of 164 new users, who were following the other person’s
account, beyond those following the @UCLPopFoot account.
During the conference itself, the Twitter account was updated with a precis of each speaker, and
questions were taken via Twitter to be presented to the speakers at the end of each session.
During the 2 day conference, @UCL PopFoot followers increased to 164. The Facebook page grew
to 84 followers. Followers were asked to use the hashtags #popfoot to mention the conference, or
to send their questions directly to the @UCLPopFoot account.
On the first day of the conference, 25th May, 51 questions and comments were made regarding
the conference through the @UCLPopFoot Twitter account from 21 people, many of whom
were following the conference from Kenya. On the second day of the conference, 26th May, 15
comments were made directly, and 12 people commented or asked questions via the Twitter
account. The hashtag was used widely during the event, and overall, 546 Tweets were sent by the
@UCLPopFoot Twitter account.
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9. Public Events
A range of parallel public engagement events were held across London as part of Population
Footprints, widening the reach of the symposium to non-academic audiences. These events
were held during the same week as the symposium and in the following two months, providing
opportunities for the public to engage with and debate the symposium’s key themes.
© Rajee Sukumaran
My Vision of the World
This popular evening debate attended by around 150 people was held on the eve of the
symposium, in London’s Bloomsbury Theatre on the UCL campus. Four exciting speakers
debated their ‘vision of the word’ by raising important questions for the symposium theme: is
overconsumption the biggest problem for climate change, or is it population? Should we improve
health inequalities, reduce forced migration, tackle the human rights deficit or improve access to
family planning?
Sarah Boseley, Health Editor of the Guardian, chaired the debate with presentations by the
following speakers providing an introduction to some of the key symposium themes:
„„ Fred Pearce, ‘Peoplequake’ author and presenter at the main symposium, argued that the
‘population bomb’ is being defused and western over consumption is the real threat of the 21st
century.
„„ Dr. Gill Greer, Director-General of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, set out a
vision of a world in which girls are valued as equal to boys and the rights of all women to freely
plan and space their pregnancies are realised.
„„ Prof. Sir Michael Marmot, leading UCL academic, expressed his concern over growing health
inequalities, as both a matter of social justice and a driver of population growth.
„„ Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, journalist and author, spoke about the politics of migration and
reproduction, and the injustice of it all given underlying power and wealth inequalities.
The presentations spurred lively discussion on topics including: public perceptions of government
overseas aid spending, whether campaigning for smaller families is a valid environmental strategy
and practical responses to the challenges posed by population ageing in the UK.
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21st Century challenges:
Addressing population, development and climate change
From a historical perspective, the ‘crisis responses’ to worst case
scenarios about population growth exacerbating climate change
seem familiar, repeating earlier debates about population growth
damaging economic growth. Rather than repeat history, Prof. Maslin suggested that a more inclusive
South-North engagement may enable the current debates to be reframed around common themes
including sustainable cities and intercultural interaction, which naturally bring together a wide range
of academic disciplines to find joint solutions for human wellbeing and global health.
Bright Club: Population
Monday 4th July
Bright Club is the thinking person’s variety night, blending comedy, music, art, new writing,
science, performance, and anything else that can happen on a stage. This Bright Club covered
topics loosely related to population and its effects on the world.
Starring:
„„ Michael Legge (MC) – who seemingly can’t stand any people, anywhere
„„ James Sherwood – playing the music that makes the world go round
„„ Seth Graham (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) – an American who knows
everything about Russia
„„ Jane Holder (UCL Laws) – the lawyer who knows where carbon conscious people keep their
secrets
„„ Anne Johnson (UCL Population Health) – who takes sexual behaviour very seriously indeed
„„ Dave McCoy (UCL IGH) – the doctor with a worldwide view
„„ Essi Viitanen (UCL Finnish Studies) – The Finn who can laugh at her own country
This event was held at The Wilmington Arms and attended by 75 people.
The Next Chapter in Development – Goals for 2016 and Beyond
Thursday 21st July
After ‘health for all’ and the MDGs, what’s the next global rallying call? Are “human rights”,
“sustainability”, “universal access” and “security” the new slogans for health and development
activists? Whose human rights? Sustainability of whose resources? Universal access to what
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© Teddy Hla
This public lunchtime lecture was held at UCL during the second
day of the symposium. UCL’s Prof. Mark Maslin addressed two
major interlinked challenges for the 21st century: climate change
and poverty alleviation. Taking the perspective that to address
these challenges we need to understand the interaction between
the ‘Population’, ‘Development’ and ‘Climate Change’ debates,
Prof. Maslin examined key issues and events from these three
separate perspectives and recent cross-cutting debates. These
current debates range from catastrophic visions of conflict and
scarcity to optimistic views of a technological solution.
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
types of health services? What kind of security – food, water, natural resources? How can we
influence policy and advocacy to make sure grassroots voices are heard and plans are developed
at a country level to respond to national and regional needs? And where does population policy fit
into these priorities?
This free debate attended by around 70 people was held at the Free Word Centre in London
EC1 and featured experts in different areas of public health policy and global development.
Speakers were Dr. Meera Tiwari from the University of East London and co-author of After 2015:
International Development at a Crossroads, Karen Newman from the Population and Sustainability
Network, Mr. Patrick Watt, Development Policy Director at Save the Children and Dr. Lucy Scott
from the Chronic Poverty Research Centre and ODI. The debate was chaired by Mr. Mike Rowson
from the UCL Institute for Global Health.
Panellists and participants debated a range of options for the post-2015 agenda. These included:
a more equity and rights-based approach, a move away from the universal model to locally
identified goals and strategies, and a two-pronged approach with developing country goals
focused on wider social aspects of well-being alongside consumption-related goals for developed
countries. The extension of the current MDG framework with strengthened accountability
mechanisms was also identified as a possibility, as well as an integrated approach with the global
climate change governance and finance process. A point of common agreement appeared to be
that the multidimensional human development framework is a key strength of the MDG framework
which should not be lost, alongside their mobilising power for the international development
agenda. The question of whether the specific targets and measures set for the MDGs are
beneficial was more contentious. It was suggested they have distorted and narrowed the focus
and had a divisive effect on the global health community.
© UCL
On the Population Footprints theme, Ms. Karen Newman argued that “population is the common
denominator” for the many pressing development challenges the world faces, and therefore
addressing the reluctance to discuss population must be one of the ways that the international
community responds to the shortfalls of the MDG Framework. With four years remaining for the
MDGs, this event raised more questions than it answered, but there appeared to be a degree of
consensus that whatever ‘The Next Chapter in Development’ may be, it must avoid simplistic
strategies and top down approaches imposed on the global South, and effectively place
inequalities and rights at the heart of the approach.
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10.Appendix
I. Conference Programme
Wednesday 25th May: More than Numbers
08.00
Registration and tea/coffee
09.00
Welcome Address: UCL President and Provost Prof. Malcolm Grant
09.10
Keynote Presentations
HE the First Lady of Rwanda, Mrs. Jeannette Kagame
Ms. Sara Parkin OBE (Founder Director, Forum for the Future)
Prof. Maria Lee (UCL Laws, Former member of Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Prof. Anthony Costello (UCL)
11.00Tea/coffee
11.30
Footprints: Environment, Population and Consumption
Prof. Georgina Mace (Imperial College London)
Ms. Hania Zlotnik (Population Division, UN)
Ms. Susan George (Transnational Institute)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Prof. Judith Stephenson (UCL)
13.00Lunch
14.00
Population Impact: Regional Perspectives
Dr. Shireen Jejeebhoy (Population Council)
Dr. Vik Mohan (Blue Ventures)
Prof. Li Shuzhuo (Xi’an Jiaotong University)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Dr. Karen Hardee (Population Reference Bureau)
15.15Tea/coffee
15.45
Population growth – Problem or Hype?
Panel discussion
Mr. Robert Engelman (World Watch Institute)
Dr. Betsy Hartmann (Hampshire College)
Mr. Fred Pearce (Author)
Dr. Eliya Zulu (African Institute for Development Policy)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Ms. Karen Newman (Population & Sustainability
Network)
17.15Close
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Thursday 26th May: From Numbers to Action
09.00
Recap from Day 1 – Prof. Mark Maslin (UCL)
09.15
Moving Further, Living Longer
Prof. Danny Dorling (University of Sheffield)
Prof. Brenda Yeoh (University of Singapore)
Prof. Sarah Harper (Oxford Institute of Population Ageing)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Prof. Ronald Skeldon (University of Sussex)
11.00Tea/coffee
11.30
Public Health Impacts and Interventions
Dr. Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum (Public Health and Environment, WHO)
Dr. Ndola Prata (Bixby Centre for Population Health & Sustainability, UC Berkeley)
Prof. Sir John Beddington (Chief Scientific Advisor, UK)
Question & Discussion – Chair, Prof. Anne Johnson (UCL)
13.00Lunch
14.00
Economic Planning Challenges: Beyond 2015
Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu (Ministry for Planning, Uganda)
Dr. Mairo Mandara (Advisor to the SSA to President of Nigeria on MDGs)
Dr. Monica Das Gupta (The World Bank)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Dr. Alison Evans (Overseas Development Institute)
15.15Tea/coffee
15.45
Keynote Speaker: Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin (Executive Director, UNFPA)
16.05
Policy and Research Directions
Ms. Cecilia Tacoli (International Institute for Environment and Development)
Ms. Siri Tellier (University of Copenhagen)
Prof. Chris Rapley (UCL)
Questions & Discussion – Chair, Dr. Richard Horton (The Lancet)
17.30
Conference reception at the Mermaid Conference Centre
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II. Speaker profiles and presentation abstracts
Prof. Sir John Beddington
Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Government
Throughout 2008 and 2009 Sir John raised the concept of the “Perfect
Storm” of food, energy and water security in the context of climate change,
gaining considerable media attention and raising this as a priority in the UK
and internationally.
Dr. Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
Department of Public Health and Environment, World Health Organistion
Dr. Campbell-Lendrum leads the climate change and health team within the
Public Health and Environment department at WHO, including responsibility
for assessing the health implications of other aspects of global environmental
change.
Prof. Anthony Costello
Co-Director, UCL Institute for Global Health
Anthony Costello is Professor of International Child Health, Head of the
Centre for International Health and Development at the UCL Institute of Child
Health, and Co-Director of the UCL Institute for Global Health.
Prof. Danny Dorling
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield
Prof. Dorling’s research interests include trying to understand and map the
changing social, political and medical geographies of Britain and further
afield, concentrating on social and spatial inequalities to life chances and
how these may be narrowed.
Mr. Robert Engelman
Vice President, Worldwatch Institute
Mr. Engelman is Vice President for Programs at the Worldwatch Institute,
and directs the Institute’s research. In his own work he specialises is in
population, reproductive health, climate change, food security and public
health.
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Ms. Susan George
President of the Board, Transnational Institute
Ms. George is one of TNI’s most renowned fellows for her long-term and
ground breaking analysis of global issues.
Prof. Malcolm Grant CBE
President and Provost, UCL
Prof. Grant has been President and Provost of UCL since 2003, and was
previously Pro-Vice Chancellor of Cambridge.
Dr. Monica Das Gupta
Senior Demographer, Development Research Group, The World Bank
Dr. Das Gupta has worked extensively on issues of population, public health
and gender. Before joining the World Bank, she worked at the National
Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, and at the Harvard
University Center for Population and Development Studies.
Dr. Karen Hardee
Visiting Senior Fellow, Population Reference Bureau
A social demographer for over 25 years, Dr. Hardee is working on global
demographic and health issues and on the links among population,
reproductive health and climate change.
Dr. Betsy Hartmann
Director, Population and Development Program, Hampshire College, USA
Dr. Hartmann’s current research focuses on the problematic consequences
of neo-Malthusian framings of climate change for environment, security and
reproductive health policies.
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Prof. Sarah Harper
Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
Prof. Harper’s research concerns globalisation and global ageing, and the
impact of population change. She is particularly interested in the implications
at the global, societal and individual level of the age-structural shift from
predominantly young to predominantly older societies.
Dr. Sarah Hawkes
Reader in Global Health, Institute for Global Health, UCL
Dr. Hawkes has lived and worked for most of the past 15 years in south
Asia (Bangladesh, India and Pakistan), where she has focused on gathering
evidence and building capacity for sexual health programmes.
Dr. Richard Horton
Editor, The Lancet
Dr. Horton is a Council member of the UK’s Academy of Medical Sciences
and the University of Birmingham. He chairs the Board of the Health Metrics
Network. He has a strong interest in issues of global health and medicine’s
contribution to wider culture.
Dr. Shireen Jejeebhoy
Senior Associate, Population Council, India
Dr. Jejeebhoy is a demographer, whose work over the last 30 years has
focused on sexual and reproductive health and rights, particularly for young
people, gender issues and women’s agency.
HE the First Lady of the Republic of Rwanda
Mrs. Jeannette Kagame
Over the last ten years, through the Imbuto Foundation, Mrs. Kagame has
spearheaded the implementation of several initiatives on health, education
and economic empowerment throughout Rwanda.
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Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu
Minister for Planning, Uganda
Prof. Kamuntu is a Ugandan economist and politician. He is the State
Minister for Planning in Uganda. He also serves as the Member of Parliament
representing Sheema County South, Bushenyi District, in the Ugandan
Parliament.
Prof. Maria Lee
UCL and former member of the Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution
Maria Lee is professor of Law at UCL, where her research and teaching
focuses on environmental governance. She was a member of the Lancet/UCL
Commission on climate change and health, which reported in 2009.
Prof. Georgina Mace
Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London
Georgina Mace is Professor of Conservation Science at Imperial
College London. Her research interests are in measuring the trends and
consequences of biodiversity loss and the assessment of species extinctions.
Dr. Mairo Mandara
Advisor to Senior Special Assistant to President of Nigeria on MDGs
Dr. Mandara is an obstetrician/gynaecologist with extensive knowledge and
experience in managing maternal and child health programmes with a focus
on managing at the national, state and health facility level.
Prof. Mark Maslin
Head of Department, UCL Geography and Co-Director, UCL Environment
Institute
Prof. Maslin is a leading scientist with particular expertise in past global and
regional climatic change and has publish over 110 papers in journals such as
Science, Nature, and Geology.
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Prof. Costas Meghir
Deputy Research Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Professor of Economics at UCL and Yale, an elected Fellow of the British
Academy, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society.
Dr. Vik Mohan
Project Director for Blue Ventures’ Integrated Population, Health and
Environment (PHE) project and practicing GP
Dr. Vik Mohan is a practicing general practitioner with a passion for marine
conservation.
Ms. Karen Newman
Co-ordinator, Population and Sustainability Network
Ms. Newman is an international advocacy, policy and development
professional with more than 25 years experience managing sexual and
reproductive health and human rights projects and programmes across the
globe.
Prof. Babatunde Osotimehin
Executive Director, UNFPA
Prof. Osotimehin is the fourth Executive Director of the United Nations
Population Fund and holds the rank of Under-Secretary-General of the
United Nations. Before this appointment, Prof. Osotimehin had served as the
Minister of Health of Nigeria.
Ms. Sara Parkin OBE
Founder Director, Forum for the Future
Ms. Parkin is an honorary companion of the Institution of Civil Engineers and
of the Institute of Energy, and became a Founding Fellow of the Engineering
Council in 2009. In 2001 she was awarded an OBE for services to education
and sustainability.
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Mr. Fred Pearce
Author
Mr. Pearce is a freelance author and journalist based in London. He has
reported on environment, science and development issues from 64 countries
over the past 20 years.
Dr. Ndola Prata
Scientific Director, Bixby Centre for Population Health, University of California
at Berkeley
Dr. Prata is a physician and medical demographer from Angola. She has
published extensively in areas of family planning, financing reproductive
health programs, adolescent sexual behavior in developing countries, setting
priorities for maternal health, and maternal mortality.
Prof. Chris Rapley CBE
UCL Chair of Climate Science
Prof. Rapley is Professor of Climate Science at UCL. He has been Executive
Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP),
Director of the British Antarctic Survey, and Director of the Science Museum,
London.
HE Ernest Rwamucyo
High Commissioner, Rwanda High Commission
Mr. Rwamucyo has extensive experience working on development and
poverty reduction policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. He worked with the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in New York as Policy Advisor on
the Millennium Development Goals.
Prof. Ronald Skeldon
School of Global Studies, University of Sussex
Prof. Skeldon specialises in the study of migration and development. His
work focuses particularly on the impact of migration on developing countries
of origin and has published widely on the topic.
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Prof. Li Shuzhuo
Professor, Population Studies, Director of the Institute for Population and
Development Studies, Institute for Population and Development Studies,
Xi’an Jiaotong University, China
Prof. Li is a member of the Social Sciences Committee of the Ministry of
Education of China and a consultant to Shaanxi Provincial Government,
China. He has published many papers and books both in English and
Chinese.
Prof. Judith Stephenson
Margaret Pyke Professor of Sexual & Reproductive Health, Institute for
Women’s Health, UCL and Director of Women’s Health, UCL Partners
Prof. Stephenson has over 15 years experience in the epidemiology and
rigorous evaluation of sexual & reproductive health (SRH) interventions. She
has been principal investigator for landmark trials of peer-led interventions in the
UK and co-investigator for SRH research in Zimbabwe and India.
Dr. Cecilia Tacoli
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
Dr. Cecilia Tacoli is joint Group Head of the Human Settlements Group at the
IIED. Her work focuses on urbanisation processes in Africa, Asia and Latin
America, the links between rural and urban areas and the impacts of climate
change on migration.
Ms. Siri Tellier
External Lecturer, Copenhagen School of Global Health, Visiting Professor,
Renmin University, Beijing
Throughout her career, Ms. Tellier has worked in the field of international
public health. She has worked with the private sector, with civil society (Red
Cross) as well as with the United Nations.
Prof. Brenda Yeoh
Professor, Department of Geography and Dean of the Faculty of Arts and
Social Sciences, National University of Singapore
Prof. Yeoh’s research interests include the politics of space in colonial and
post-colonial cities, gender, migration and transnational communities.
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Ms. Hania Zlotnik
Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
United Nations
Ms. Zlotnik was appointed Director of the Population Division, Department
of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, in February 2005
after working in the Population Division for 23 years.
Dr. Eliya Zulu
Executive Director, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Before co-founding AFIDEP, Dr. Zulu was the Deputy Director and Director
of Research at the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
where he headed the Policy Engagement and Communications Unit and the
Urbanization and Wellbeing Research Program.
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III. HE First Lady of Rwanda Plenary presentation
Speech by HE Jeanette Kagame, First Lady
of the Republic of Rwanda at the UCLLeverhulme Trust Population Footprints
Symposium, London, 25 – 26 May 2011
Stopes to voice the unspeakable, to challenge
religious institutions and most importantly open
up the debate on birth control with women at
the heart of the discussion.
Delivered on her behalf by Ernest
Rwamucyo, High Commissioner of Rwanda
to the United Kingdom
Since Marie Stopes’ pioneering time, the
world has changed quite drastically. This
symposium, dubbed “population footprints”
takes place at a time when there is more
advancement in knowledge, research and
science on population issues. This has brought
tremendous opportunities as well as major
challenges.
Professor Malcom Grant, President and
Provost of University College London
The Leverhulme Trust,
Distinguished Panellists,
Organizers of the Conference and particularly
Susan Crane and her team who I know have
worked hard to make this conference happen,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I bring you warm greetings from the First Lady
of Rwanda, Her Excellency Jeanette Kagame.
She had planned to be here this morning to
deliver this symposium’s key note address
and also participate in the conference. Due to
uncertainty of air travel and disruptions caused
by the volcanic ash from the volcano in Iceland
that I will not attempt to pronounce, she was
not able to travel to London.
The First Lady sends her greetings and best
wishes for this conference.
She has sent her key note speech which I am
privileged to deliver on her behalf
Distinguished participants, allow me now to
read the statement by Her Excellency Janet
Kagame:
Your Excellencies, it is a great honour for
me and for Rwanda to contribute to the
University College London and Leverhulme
Trust International Conference on “Human
Population Growth and Global Carrying
Capacity”.
I find it very fitting that the Leverhulme Trust
selected this exceptional University to host
its 3rd Conference; and chose the subject of
Population at the very institution that over 100
years ago nurtured the talents, character and
pioneering spirit of Marie Carmichael Stopes.
Women all over the world and indeed nations
have benefitted from the courage of Marie
Some parts of the world are experiencing very
high population growth rates due to higher
birth rates coupled with reduction in mortality
and higher child survival rates, thanks to
expansion in access to basic health services
and advancement in technology and medicine.
At the same time, other parts of the world are
experiencing ageing populations.
The beauty of the era that we live in today
is that, even in countries that might be
experiencing an aging population, globalization
and an increasingly integrated global
architecture characterized by movement of
services, people and immigration bridges some
of the gaps for instance in labor and productive
human capacity needs. I know this may be a
controversial issue in a number of cases, but
here is the point:
Facing today’s population challenges requires
a multidisciplinary approach. When addressing
population issues, we need to take into
consideration a number of issues including:
women rights and empowerment including
issues of choice, maternal health and access
to contraceptives, economic growth, wealth
creation and employment, migration and
impact of climate change.
Climate change alone poses a huge challenge
given an exploding global population, growing
consumption and pressure on the dwindling
global resources.
Your Excellencies, my country Rwanda faces
even more imminent population challenges.
The country was shattered by the 1994
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genocide against the Tutsi 17 years ago. It is a
country of only 26,000 Sq Km with a population
of about 11 million. Rwanda is also a country
not so endowed with substantive natural
resources.
In our Vision for the transformation of the
country into middle income by 2020, we
decided to view the 365 people per square
kilometer in our country as an opportunity for
development and not a reason to despair. We
have to turn our population into an asset and
not a burden.
Distinguished participants, Rwanda has opted
for an integrated and multidisciplinary approach
focusing on managing its population rather
than just limiting its growth. Our strategy is to
turn our population into a productive, skilled,
health and engaged population.
We do this by investing in our people. We have
empowered our women by bringing them in the
mainstream of politics and decision-making.
Today, Rwanda’s parliament is dominated by
women holding 56% of parliamentary seats,
the highest in the world. Their representation
in other positions of power and responsibility
like in cabinet, Judiciary and local government
averages from 35% to 45%. They have equal
access with men to assets like land and both
girls and boys have equal opportunities to
access education services. This has been
transformatory for the country.
We have invested heavily in education and
health. Education alone consumes about 25%
of our national budget and health expenditure
is about 20%. This is aimed at turning our
population into a healthy and productive
asset. We have guaranteed universal access
to education and health care. Over 90% of our
population has access to medical insurance,
which costs the equivalent of $2 per year.
This has ensured tremendous improvement in
key health outcomes. Within the last 10 years
alone: Child mortality has fallen from 196 to
103 per 1000 live births. This is expected to
fall to 65 by 2020. Infant mortality dropped
from 107 to 62 Per 1000 live births and this
will fall to 35 by 2020. Maternal mortality has
fallen drastically. The overall impact is that life
expectancy has increased from 48 to 52 years.
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Instead of the traditional approach of restricting
the number of children per family, we have
involved families in this decision making.
Programs are in place to encourage families
to only have as many children as they can
afford to provide for. This implies educating
women about contraceptives, spacing births
and consequences of unwanted pregnancies.
This approach has proven successful as we
have had a steady decline in our fertility rate
from 8.5 in 1985 to 5.5 today. Our target is to
reach 4.5 by 2012. Steady decline has been
registered just in the 5 years as a result of the
new population policy.
Your Excellencies, the largest investment of all
is and shall remain education. With the majority
of our population being between the ages of
15 years and 45 years, skills development has
been identified as critical to the transformation
of our country into a self sustaining modern
economy.
The introduction of 9 year free basic
education has increased enrollment rates and
guaranteed gender parity in basic education.
At the same time promotion of technical and
vocational training is breaking grounds in
terms of exposing our young population to
skills much needed by our economy. This is
aimed at transforming them from job seekers
to job creators. Increased access to tertiary
education, with special emphasis on science
and technology, is also in line with our vision to
turn Rwanda into a high value ICT hub.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me emphasize
that we are conscious that population growth
has to be managed carefully to ensure that
government can afford provision of basic
services. This is why women have been
educated and empowered to only have as
many children as their household can afford to
raise within the means and resources available
to their households.
In this regard, our national efforts are turned
towards growing the economy at a pace that
outpaces the population growth rate, creating
wealth at the household level and empowering
women to make the right decision at the right
time. With this vision in mind, we have managed
to double our GDP per capita from $220 in 2000
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to $541 today. While our population growth rate
has fallen from 3.2% in 1985 to 2.6% today, the
economy has been growing at an average 7%
over the last decade.
To stimulate economic growth, Rwanda has
invested heavily in agriculture to ensure food
security and increase exports. Infrastructure
development and growth of the service sector
in tourism, the financial sector and information
and communication technology are also a
huge priority. Rwanda is positioning herself
to be a service and ICT hub for the East and
Central African region. Coupled with a strong
focus on regional integration underpinned by
Rwanda’s recent accession to the East African
Community creating a regional market of 130
million people, we believe that the outlook for
our country, our people and for the region is
very promising.
Distinguished participants, by highlighting what
Rwanda is doing across different sectors of
the economy, I am in no way underplaying the
role of traditional approaches to addressing
population issues. I am also not underplaying
the role of other sectors not mentioned. I
simply want to illustrate how our approach has
not been limited to provision of family planning
but rather a holistic approach which takes
into account, the individual, the family and the
Nation as a whole.
The transformation that has happened and
is going on in Rwanda is a structured and
bold ambition of changing the mindset of
the people, harnessing the potential of every
citizen, and unravelling the enterprising spirit
of the youth. It is a transformation dependent
on the commitment of our government to stay
the course, but it is also a transformation that is
dependent on the global village we live in.
Managing the growth of our population and
effectively sharing the space is reliant on our
leadership’s courage to rethink and reconsider
everything we do. We are challenged on a
daily basis to design innovative, homegrown
programs and policies which address the
dynamic needs of our population.
It is my belief that this symposium will come
up with suggestions on innovative, cutting
edge thinking on multidisciplinary approaches
to addressing today’s population challenges,
and to help build sustainable partnerships
for sustainable solutions to the population
questions of today.
I take this opportunity to wish you fruitful
deliberations.
Thank you for your attention
HE Mrs. Jeannette Kagame, First Lady of the
Republic of Rwanda
Success has not come without challenges both
internal and external. Internally:
„„ 30% of health facilities do not provide
modern family planning services and only
6.3% of private sector owned facilities avail
family planning services. This is because
the majority of private health facilities are
owned by faith based organizations and
predominantly owned by the Catholic
Church.
„„ 21.8% of women (15-29 years old) do not
use modern contraceptives because of
misconception or fear of side effects.
„„ Whilst efforts are ongoing, a large share of
the population still has low productivity level
and this puts a burden on the government
to provide basic public goods (education,
health, social protection).
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IV. UNFPA Executive Director, Plenary Presentation
7 Billion People Counting
on Each Other
Remarks by Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin,
UNFPA Executive Director
I thank you for the kind introduction and for
inviting me here to Population Footprints.
A world of seven billion:
Some numbers
At the beginning of this year, on the 20th of
January, my new baby granddaughter was
born. She joins each one of us in what will soon
be a world of 7 billion people.
On the 31st of October, according to UN
projections, we will reach a world population of
7 billion, marking a major milestone in human
history.
This milestone is both a challenge and an
opportunity.
Whether we can live together on a healthy
planet will depend on the decisions we
make now. In a world of 7 billion people and
counting, we need to count on each other.
If we look back, we see that during the last two
centuries, the world’s population has grown
very quickly.
A little more than 200 years ago, in the year
1804, the world reached a population of 1
billion.
It took 123 years for world population to
double to 2 billion.
Then it took 32 years to reach 3 billion people
in 1959.
Just fifteen years later, we reached 4 billion
people.
It took only 13 years to reach 5 billion people
in 1987.
Then just 11 years later we reached 6 billion
people in 1998.
And here we are, 13 years later, approaching a
world population of 7 billion.
My friends, we’ve come a long way.
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If you were born before 1967, you’ve seen
world population double.
Globally, people are living longer and healthier
lives and couples are choosing to have fewer
children.
Average life expectancy worldwide has
increased by 20 years since 1950, from 48 to
69 years today. Meanwhile, the death rate has
steadily declined, as medical breakthroughs
and access to sanitation and healthcare have
saved millions of lives.
Today women on average are having half as
many children as they did 50 years ago. The
world total fertility rate has declined from 5
children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 today, with
wide country variations.
Today 78 million people are added to our planet
each year compared to 89 million annually
two decades ago. The 78 million people
added each year amounts to the population
of Canada, Australia, Greece and Portugal
combined.
And even though the rate of population growth
is slowing, the large number of people now
in their reproductive years, 3.7 billion, means
world population will keep growing for several
more decades.
The date we reach the next billion – and the
one after that – depends on policy and funding
decisions made now about maternal and child
healthcare, access to family planning, girls’
education, and expanded opportunities for
women.
Demographic diversity
If we look closer, we see that today’s
demographic trends very dramatically and
there are large differences between regions and
within countries.
Most high income, and some middle income
countries, are experiencing low fertility and
population ageing.
Population ageing is particularly pronounced
in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. In the more
developed regions, about 1 in 4 people is now
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
over age 60. By 2050, more than 1 in 3 will be.
This stands in stark contrast to many low
income countries that grapple with poverty,
high rates of fertility and large youth
populations. In the least-developed countries,
one in 20 people is now over age 60. These
countries are hard pressed to provide
education, employment and healthcare to
current and future generations.
While Japan, most European nations,
Singapore and Russia have fertility rates of 1.5
children per woman or lower, fertility rates are
5 or higher in Afghanistan and many African
countries.
This demographic diversity is highlighted by
comparing Germany and Ethiopia. Today
their populations are roughly the same size: 82
million in Germany and 85 million in Ethiopia.
But if current trends continue, their paths will
diverge dramatically.
By mid-century, the population of Germany
will decline to 75 million while Ethiopia’s
population will rise to 145 million people.
According to the median projection of the UN
Population Division, the world’s population will
continue to increase to 8 billion in 2025, then
onto 9 billion in 2043, climbing to 10 billion in
the year 2083.
But I would like to stress that these projections
are just that—projections. And they are based
on some very important assumptions.
This median projection assumes that women
in high fertility countries will have only 3
children in mid-century—that’s two less than
the 5 children they are having today. It further
assumes that they will have only 2 children by
the turn of the next century.
So this is a very important assumption that
depends not only on changes in attitudes and
behaviours, but also on increased access to
family planning.
Links between population and
environmental sustainability
If we look at the situation today, we see that for
every 100 people added to our planet, 97 are in
less developed countries, and the vast majority
are in cities.
And while it is true that recent history has
accommodated a world population that’s been
growing by a billion people every 12 to 14
years without witnessing major collapses, there
is no doubt that planet Earth is beginning to
show signs of stress—signs that demand
our urgent attention.
This stress is witnessed in water shortages,
depletion of forests and fishstocks, and food
and fuel crises.
We are also witnessing rapid urbanization. In
1960, one in three people lived in a city, today
more than half of all people do. By 2045, it is
predicted that two in three people will live in
urban areas.
The cities of the developing world will double
in size in the next generation, and the
number of slum dwellers is growing.
So countries need to plan now for this
unprecedented urban growth to make cities
liveable and sustainable.
Although there is no consensus on the carrying
capacity of our planet, it is clear that human
activity has affected every part of the planet,
every eco-system and is changing the world’s
climate.
In response, I believe that two investments
should be a priority:
1. We need to invest in major changes in
technology and global governance to reduce
carbon emissions and move towards a
green and inclusive economy, and
2. We need to invest more in young people,
women and reproductive health, including
family planning.
These investments will allow us to continue
improving living standards without severely
straining the planet’s resources.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Reproductive health and
other key ICPD goals
As the Executive Director of the United Nations
Population Fund, my main message is that
population is not just about numbers, it is
first and foremost about people.
In a world of 7 billion, every person should
enjoy human rights and human dignity. And we
need to create greater balance between people
and our planet.
Back in 1994, I traveled to Cairo for the historic
International Conference on Population and
Development, known as ICPD.
I remember the contentious debates and the
hard-won historic consensus.
The Cairo consensus remains a visionary
roadmap that points us in the right direction.
Addressing population does not require any
form of control or coercion. It requires the
promotion of human rights and the ability of
women and young people to make their own
choices.
Leaders from 179 governments agreed
on these guiding principles at the Cairo
Conference. And they agreed on the goals to
achieve universal education and reproductive
health by 2015, to reduce child and maternal
mortality, and to promote gender equality and
the empowerment of women.
The ICPD Programme of Action points to four
factors to stabilize population growth.
First, we must educate girls.
Second, we must eliminate gender-based
discrimination and violence, and empower
women to participate in decisions of their
families, communities and nations.
Third, we must reduce child mortality so
parents have confidence their children will
survive to adulthood.
And fourth, we must ensure every woman’s
ability to plan her family and enjoy reproductive
health.
In 1994 in Cairo, for the first time, Governments
acknowledged that every person has the right
to sexual and reproductive health.
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But while the right to sexual and reproductive
health has been proclaimed, it is far from
being universally respected.
There are still an estimated 215 million women
in less developed countries, who want to
want to avoid or delay pregnancy, who lack
access to modern contraception.
Every day 1,000 women die from
complications of pregnancy and childbirth.
Deaths that can be prevented.
And there are too many young women and girls
forced into early marriage and childbearing.
These are all urgent issues that need to be
addressed. And these issues are a priority for
me and my colleagues at UNFPA, the United
Nations Population Fund.
And they should be a priority for all of us.
However, today we are $24 billion short of the
$65 billion (US dollars) needed to fund the
international programme for population and
development. This includes services for family
planning, maternal health and HIV and AIDS,
and for population data collection and analysis.
Climate change
The paramount challenge of this century is to
ensure the wellbeing of human beings while
protecting the intricate balance of nature on
which all life depends.
And here let me make an important point. While
the number of people is important, the largest
contributing factor to climate change is not
population growth per se, but growth in carbon
emissions. And here it is important to look at
population footprints, which reflect levels of
consumption.
And there is another important point to stress.
Today the poorest countries with the fastest
growing populations have contributed the
least to climate change, and are most likely to
suffer its most devastating consequences.
At UNFPA, we are moving forward guided
by the vision that investing in young
people, reproductive health and women’s
empowerment can put countries on a
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
path to economic growth and sustainable
development.
As 1 in 7 billion, I look forward to working with
you.
And here I ask you to envision the new world
that we need to work together to create.
I thank you for giving me the opportunity
to address you and look forward to our
discussions.
Invest in women and young people
I believe that if every woman and girl had
opportunities and choices and could make her
own decisions, the world would be a better
place for all of us.
Today there are 600 million adolescent girls—
girls whose decisions can change our world.
If every girl today could stay in school and
marry when and whom she wanted and
have the number of children she desired,
and live free of gender-based violence and
discrimination, we would see a whole new
world.
We would see an end to child marriage,
improved health for children and families, and
women taking their rightful place as equals in
society.
With health, education and opportunities,
girls and women can contribute fully to their
families, communities and nations. This has
a positive multiplier effect that contributes
to peace, prosperity and protection of our
environment.
The choices available to girls and women will
determine when the world will add the next
billion people and the billion after that.
And here I am talking not only about choices
and opportunities for education and health,
including family planning. I am also talking
about choices to balance work and family
life so that there is balance within the wider
society, between a woman’s productive and
reproductive roles, and between men and
women.
Together we can avert the worst impacts of
the climate crisis and create a more just and
sustainable world.
Today we are 7 billion people counting on
each other. I thank each and every one of
you for your positive spirit, commitment and
determination.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
V. Summary Report of the Nairobi Satellite Population Footprints
Symposium
May 25-26, 2011; Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel; Nairobi, Kenya
Theme: Kenya’s Population, Health, and Environment
within the Context of Global Climatic Change
1. Key Issues Discussed
The main objective of the Nairobi satellite
meeting was to promote public awareness and
debate on population footprints and linkages
between population growth, climate change
and the environment in Kenya. The meeting
allowed for deliberations on public policy
and program responses and the synergistic
challenges associated with these issues. As a
satellite meeting, it also enabled participants to
follow and engage in the global deliberations
on these issues at the Population Footprints
Symposium. The National Coordinating Agency
for Population and Development (NCAPD) and
the African Institute for Development Policy
(AFIDEP) hosted the event, which was funded
by UCL Institute for Global Health, Venture
Strategies for Health and Development,
AFIDEP, and Kenya Young Greens.
Approximately 100 delegates from universities,
Government, NGOs, youth movements, Civil
Society Organizations, private sector, the UN
and the media attended the 2-day event. The
event was opened by the Dr. Fidelis Zama
Chi, UNFPA Country Director for Kenya, while
Dr. Paul Kizito, NCAPD’s Deputy Director for
Technical Services, closed the conference.
Dr. Eliya Zulu, Executive Director of AFIDEP,
participated in the first day deliberations of
the London Conference and the second day
deliberations of the Nairobi meeting.
Delegates had an opportunity to learn and
share with experts on the impact of climate
change and its linkages with population, the
environment and health in Kenya and beyond;
the existing global, regional and local policy
and program responses to population, the
environment and climate change; the youth
perspectives and responses on climate
change; areas of opportunity for Kenya; and
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expert recommendations on how to move the
agenda forward.
The main issues arising from presentations and
deliberations included:
„„ Africa and other developing countries
contribute the least to climate change and
yet they bear the disproportionate share of
the adverse effects of climate change.
„„ Population growth is a key driver of climate
change globally since it leads to increased
consumption and greenhouse gas
emissions. Consumption levels in the West
are, however, the primary cause of global
warming.
„„ Rapid population growth in Africa translates
to more people being exposed to impacts
of climate change and increased costs
of adaptation both at the household and
national levels. By exacerbating poverty
and environmental degradation, population
growth also undermines the capacity of
African countries to effectively adapt to the
effects of climate change.
„„ African governments are becoming
increasingly aware of the need to slow
population growth and that meeting the
high unmet need for family planning will
go a long way in improving the health and
wellbeing of women, children, and overall
sustainable development. Climate change
adaptation initiatives should integrate
population issues, including promotion of
voluntary family planning.
„„ While Africa lacks the resource and human
capacity for sustainable development,
it has the opportunity to capitalize on
carbon markets. As a lower contributor of
greenhouse gas emissions, Africa is at an
advantage and can accumulate carbon
The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
credits that can be traded in the global
carbon markets for cash. This money can
be channeled towards adaptation and
poverty alleviation strategies.
Delegates highlighted the need to address the
following challenges in order to move forward
the population and climate change agenda:
„„ Climate change discourses and policies
have been slow to integrate health and
population issues including empowerment
of women. Population and health experts
were called upon to play a more proactive
role in local and global climate change
discourses and negotiations.
„„ Low investment in family planning
programs by African governments and the
international community is a major obstacle
to addressing the high unmet need for
family planning in Kenya and other African
countries and to slowing the prevailing
rapid population growth.
„„ Research on the African continent is
limited in scope, scale and area of focus.
There is limited research measuring the
actual impact of climate change on the
environment, health, and sustainable
development, and how these issues relate
to population growth. Climate change
adaptation measures are also not evidence
driven both in terms of design and impact
assessment. Most of the research is not
useful in guiding policies and programs
because it is speculative and shows very
broad associations.
2. Moving Forward
Delegates agreed that there is a need to
critically assess the status of Kenya on
population and climate change at policy and
program level, chart a way forward for local
initiatives that take into account integration
of population issues and identify how Kenya
can best benefit from and contribute to global
initiatives. Delegates agreed to galvanize
research, interest and program action around
Population and climate change issues in Kenya
through the existing Population, Health and
Environment network. Delegates also called for
a more in-depth conference in order to have a
more comprehensive assessment of the state
of evidence on linkages between population,
climate change, environment, and health in
Kenya and explore ways of strengthening
policy and program. An evaluation conducted
at the end of the conference showed that
nearly all of the delegates who responded to
the evaluation felt that the conference met its
objectives. Most felt that the conference was
well executed and educative and many felt that
linking all the thematic areas to population and
climate change was an innovative approach.
„„ Governments and other key stakeholders
including the private sector have been slow
to embrace participation in the carbon
markets. Governments lack local policies
and guidelines that facilitate participation in
these markets.
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
3. Symposium Agenda and Speakers
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Wednesday, May 25th, 2011
TIME
SESSION/PRESENTATION TITLE
08:00 –
08:30
Registration of Participants
08:30 –
09:00
Session 1: Opening Remarks
Dr. Fidelis Zama Chi - UNFPA Country Representative
Dr. Boniface K’Oyugi- CEO, National Coordinating
Agency for Population and Development
Dr. Eliya Zulu- Executive Director, African Institute for
Development Policy
Vote of Thanks
Ms. Rose Oronje- African Institute for Development
Policy
9:00 –
10:00
SPEAKERS
Session 2: Setting the Stage, Defining the Issues
Population, Climate Change , and
Sustainable Development in Africa
Mr. Clive Mutunga – Population Action International
Population, Environment and Health
in Kenya – Overview of Issues
Dr. Paul Kizito – National Coordinating Agency for
Population and Development,
Environment, Development and
Carrying Capacity: the Critical
Linkages
Dr. Samson Wasao – Advisor: Ministry of Planning/UNDP
10:00 –
10:40
Discussion
10:40 –
11:00
Tea Break
11:00 –
13:00
Session 3: London Population Footprints Symposium Video Conference
Participants will get to watch and have an interactive chat with London Conference.
13:00 –
14:00
Lunch
14:00 –
17:00
Session 4: Land Use, Water and Food Security
Ms. Elizabeth Gitari – Kenya Land Conservation Trust (Chair)
14:00 –
17:00
Emerging Trends around BioEnergy Production and its
implications around Food
Production
Samora Momanyi- AGES Group
Land Use, Water and Food
Security in the context of Climate
Change
Dr. Christopher Oludhe -Department of Meteorology,
University of Nairobi
Food and water security issues:
Why Population Matters
Clive Mutunga – Population Action International
Session 5: Human Settlements, Climate Change and Health
Dr Robert Ayisi- City Council of Nairobi (Chair)
Urbanization and Climate Change Implication for health among urban
poor
Dr. Catherine Kyobutungi- African Population and Health
Research Center
The impact of Climate Change on
environment and Health
Dr. Gertrude Ngenda- UNEP
Climate Change , a threat to
Human Health?
Stephen Otieno – Eco Futures Kenya
17:00 –
18:00
Session 6: Key Issues from Breakout Sessions
Mr. Chirag Shah- AFIDEP
Mr. Robin Achoki - AFIDEP
18:0019:00
Cocktail Reception
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Thursday, May 26th, 2011
8:30 –
9:00
Recap of Day 1
9:00 –
11:00
Session 7: Opportunities in the
Carbon Markets
Ms. Halima Murunga- AGES Group (Chair)
Large Scale CDM projects &
the Carbon Market
Mr. Adriaan Tas – Carbon Africa
Programmes of Activities and the
CDM at the Household
Level
Mr. Lucas Belenky- Low Carbon Development
Increasing Africa’s Share of
the Global Carbon Trade &
Mitigating Population Pressures
Mr. Tsuma Charo- Carbon Asset
Mr. David Githaiga- UNDP (Discussant)
11.00 –
11:10
Tea Break
11:10 –
13:10
Session 8: Public Policy and
Program Responses
Mr. Philip Otieno – Kenya Young Greens (Chair)
Global responses to climate
Change
Ms. Emily Massawa – UNEP
Government responses on
Climate Change , environment
and poverty matters
Dr. Samson Wasao – UNDP
Government responses on
population and Climate Change
challenges
Mr. Karugu Ngatia- NCAPD
Youth responses to climate
Change
Mr. Kevin Odhiambo –Tunza Africa
Dr. Eliya Zulu- AFIDEP (Discussant)
13:10 –
13:40
13:40 –
15:00
Session 9: Key meeting Outcomes
and Plans for the Future
Rose Oronje – AFIDEP
Closing Remarks
Dr. Eliya Zulu- AFIDEP
Dr. Paul Kizito, NCAPD
Lunch
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
VI. Social Media Highlights
missmumbi Mumbi
by UCLpopfoot
RT @thef1croc: The poorest 1 billion people of the world are responsible for only 3% of the globes
GHG emissions #popfoot #nbo #crazystats
NewSecurityBeat New Security Beat
by UCLpopfoot
Eliya Zulu: #population growth compromising #Uganda ability to provide food, water, resources.
#popfoot
gillgreer Gill Greer
by UCLpopfoot
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
Policies should address realities of peoples lives + evidence, not ideology or an idealised vision of
the past
HalimaMurunga Halima Murunga
by UCLpopfoot
for every person born in the USA produce 20tns of carbon, India 1ton of carbon #popfoot
Scotlene Steve Scot Otieno
by UCLpopfoot
@
@UCLpopfoot Why are developed countries not reducing their CGH emmissions, but paying for
their cleanup in poor countries.Is ths sustainable
AFIDEPPopFootpr AFIDEP PopFootprints
by UCLpopfoot
A Mutunga FCIKENYA Question specifically for Sara - In Africa, do you think we are lacking
policies or political will to make it happen?
HalimaMurunga Halima Murunga
by UCLpopfoot
the pursuit of materialism has lead to gross consumption of resources... We need an attitude
adjustment of how we define wealth #popfoot
HalimaMurunga Halima Murunga
by UCLpopfoot
skewed development. gender biased towards woman focused, what about men? #popfoot
AbagiButterfly Nya Abagi
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
by UCLpopfoot
Why isn’t there a noble peace prize for stopping births? What can the world learn from the Rwanda
example? #popfoot #nbo
11 hours ago
AGESGroup AGES Group
by UCLpopfoot
We need to seriously reduce our impact on nature if we plan to not expire prematurely as a species
#popfoot #nbo @swalz @GreenLivingz
AGESGroup AGES Group
by UCLpopfoot
Rwanda’s parliament has 56% women, the largest in the #WORLD! #popfoot #nbo
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The UCL & Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints Symposium: Report
VII. Organising and Advisory Committee members
The UCL-Leverhulme Trust Population Footprints symposium was coordinated by the UCL
Institute for Global Health working towards the UCL Grand Challenge of Global Health. We would
like to extend our deepest thanks to the Organising and Advisory Committee for giving us their
time, energy and insights for the benefit of this event.
UCL Organising Committee
„„ Sarah Ball, Research & Programme Development Manager, UCL Institute for Global Health
„„ Dr. Sarah Bell, Lecturer, Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering. Co-Director of the
UCL Environment Institute
„„ Prof. Anthony Costello, Director, Co-Director UCL Institute for Global Health
„„ Susan Crane, International Health Research Programme Director, UCL Institute for Global Health
„„ Dr. Steve Cross, Public Engagement Co-ordinator, UCL Public Engagement Unit
„„ Prof. Nora Groce, Director, Leonard Cheshire Disability and Inclusive Development Centre
„„ Dr. Sarah Hawkes, Reader in Global Health, UCL Centre for International Health &
Development
„„ Prof. Anne Johnson, Co-Director UCL Institute for Global Health
„„ Ash Kotecha, Events Manager, UCL Institute of Child Health
„„ Prof. Maria Lee, UCL Centre for Ethics and Law, Former member Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution
„„ Caren Levy, Director, UCL Development Planning Unit
„„ Rikke Osterlund, Administrator, UCL Institute for Global Health
„„ Prof. Mark Maslin, Head of UCL Geography Department
„„ Dr. Pablo Mateos, Lecturer in Human Geography, UCL Geography
„„ Dr. Sara Randall, Lecturer, Biological Anthropology and Deputy Head of UCL Department of
Anthropology
„„ Prof. Judith Stephenson, Margaret Pyke Chair of Sexual & Reproductive Health, UCL Centre
for Sexual Health & HIV Research
„„ Nicholas Tyndale, Communications Director, UCL Grand Challenges
„„ Prof. Ann Varley, Reader, UCL Geography
Advisory Committee
„„ Mustafa Abbas, Healthy Planet, National Director, MedSIN
„„ Jerry Ash, Deputy Team Leader, AIDS and Reproductive Health, Department for International
Development, UK AID
„„ Aoife Nic Carthaigh, Policy and Advocacy Manager, Universal Access Interact Worldwide
„„ Prof. John Guillebaud, Patron, Population Matters
„„ Dr. Karen Hardee, Senior Visiting Fellow, Population Reference Bureau
„„ Sandra Kabir, Executive Director, Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee, UK
„„ Dr. Susannah Mayhew, Senior Lecturer in Reproductive Health and Policy, Centre for
Population Studies, London School Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
„„ Karen Newman, Network Co-ordinator, Population & Sustainability Network
„„ Dr. Cecilia Tacoli, Senior Researcher, International Institute for Environment and Development
„„ Dr. Iqbal Shah, Department of Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization
„„ Prof. Ronald Skeldon, Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex
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VIII. Exhibitor stand information
IPPF
A global service provider and a leading advocate of sexual and reproductive health and rights
for all. We are a global network of Member Associations, and we work in over 170 countries providing and campaigning for sexual and reproductive health care and rights
The Lancet
The world’s leading independent general medical journal. The journal’s coverage is international
in focus and extends to all aspects of human health. The Lancet is stringently edited and peerreviewed to ensure the scientific merit and clinical relevance of its diverse content.
Nature
A weekly international journal publishing the finest peer-reviewed research in all fields of science
and technology on the basis of its originality, importance, interdisciplinary interest, timeliness,
accessibility, elegance and surprising conclusions. Nature also provides rapid, authoritative,
insightful and arresting news and interpretation of topical and coming trends affecting science,
scientists and the wider public.
Population Matters
Campaigns for the stabilisation and gradual decrease of the population to sustainable levels by
voluntary means, globally and within the UK. We research matters of population in relation to the
environment, sustainability and other issues.
Reproductive Health Matters
An independent charity, producing in-depth publications on reproductive and sexual health and
rights for an international, multi-disciplinary audience. Its publications are available in print and on
the web by subscription in all developed countries and are distributed free to developing country
institutions and organisations.
UCL
London’s leading multidisciplinary university with 8,500 staff and 24,000 students from more than
140 countries. UCL is one of the world’s leading universities, is the best UK university for health
research (according to the Department of Health) and is one of the top 20 universities in the world
for medicine.
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