UKERC Energy 2050:
The impact of lifestyle and
social change on the UK
energy system
Dr Jillian Anable
The Centre for Transport Research
University of Aberdeen
j.anable@abdn.ac.uk
Costing the Climate Change Bill:
From system models and cost curves to the real world
Edinburgh, 23rd June 2009
The Energy Lifestyles Scenario
The project:
ƒ One scenario in the UK Energy Research Centre project
“Energy 2050”
The aim:
ƒ To understand the potential impact of ‘lifestyle change’
on the UK energy system on 2050, in particular carbon
emissions and system resilience
The team:
ƒ Nick Eyre, Christian Brand, Russell Layberry (Oxford),
Jillian Anable (Aberdeen), Neil Strachan (King’s, London)
What are lifestyles?
Various definitions
ƒ Consumption patterns
ƒ Preferences
ƒ Use of time and space
ƒ Social values and norms
ƒ Public acceptance of
technology and policy
change
Our focus
ƒ Decisions that affect energy
demand
The lifestyle scenario
Storyline:
ƒ Socially led change in energy use
ƒ Re-evaluation of ‘consumption’
ƒ ‘Green housing’; ‘community living’; ‘accessibility’, not
‘mobility’
ƒ Policy consistent with social norms
Which behaviours:
ƒ Household energy & personal transport
ƒ Technology choice & use
Scale of change:
ƒ End points consistent with observed behaviour somewhere in
OECD today
ƒ Rates of change based on historically observed rates
Lifestyle scenario methodology
Income and
population
growth;
International
context
Social norms,
attitudes
preferences,
acceptance,
consumption
Modelling
Output 1
Variants
Story line
Modelling
Reference case
UK Domestic
Carbon
Model
UK Transport
Carbon
Model
Energy
Service
Demands &
Technology
Choices
MARKAL
UK Energy
System
Model
LS REF
LS LC
Low carbon case
The Scenarios
ENERGY SYSTEM ATTRIBUTES
Lifestyle
Low Carbon
constraint
REF
Reference
(“firm and funded”
policies as of EWP
2007)
LC
“Low carbon”
LS
“Lifestyle”
LS LC
“Lifestyle low carbon”
Household sector – lifestyle
changes
Internal
temperature
Hot water use
Space
heating
Useful energy down 50%
Light/applian
ce ownership
& use
Water
heating
Useful energy down 40%
Retrofit
insulation
Light/
appliance
Useful energy down 37%
Microgen
20 TWh in 2050 (30% of
household electricity)
Replacement
heating
systems
Light/applian
ce efficiency
Microgeneration
Household sector –
impacts on energy demand
Household useful energy demand - LS REF scenario
500
450
400
350
space_heat
water_heat
dla
gas_appliances
total
TW
h
300
250
200
150
100
50
20
49
20
46
20
43
20
34
20
37
20
40
20
31
20
28
20
25
20
22
20
19
20
13
20
16
20
10
20
07
20
04
20
01
ye
ar
19
98
0
A combination of energy service demand reduction and
efficiency improvement reduces energy demand by more
than 50% from baseline levels by 2050.
Household sector –
impacts on heating systems
Residential heating by fuel type in different scenarios (2000 and 2050)
1,800
1,600
Solar
District heating / micro-CHP
1,400
Solid/wood fuel
1,200
Oil
1,000
PJ
Coal
Heat pumps
800
Electricity
600
Gas (instant)
400
Gas (condensing)
Gas
200
2000
REF
LS REF
LC
LS LC
Up to 2025, the major change is market
penetration of condensing boilers. By 2050 the
sector is transformed in different ways
Transport sector – lifestyle
and mobility changes
Accessibility
Localism
Slower speeds
Compact cities
Car-free zones
Car clubs
Total
distance
Down 21%
Mode
choice
Car from 81 - 36% distance
Cycle from 1 - 13% distance
Vehicle
choice
Electric and hydrogen
vehicles 77% vkms in 2050
Driving
Style
Ecodriving = 5% reduction in
CO2 per km by 2025
Car
Car occupancy up 23% by
2050
ICT
Tele-working
Tele-shopping
Less air travel
Policy acceptance
Occupan
cy
Transport sector – impact on
fuel demand
Transport Fuel Demand in different scenarios (2000 and 2050)
2,500
Ethanol/methanol
2,000
Bio-diesel/kerosene
Jet fuel
PJ
1,500
Hydrogen
1,000
Electricity
Diesel
500
Petrol
-
2000
REF
LS REF
LC
LS LC
Impacts of lifestyle on the
wider energy system
Final Energy Demand by Fuel in different scenarios (2000 and 2050)
7,000
Others
Heat
Biomass
Manufactured fuel
Bio diesels
Ethanol/Methanol
Hydrogen
Jet fuel
6,000
5,000
PJ
4,000
Diesel
Petrol
Coal
Gas
LPG
Fuel oil
Electricity
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2000
REF
LS REF
LC
LS LC
Lifestyle reduces energy demand by ~30% by 2050
Implications for electricity
supply
Electricity generation mix in 2050
2,500
Storage
Solar PV
Marine
2,000
Imports
Biowaste &
others
Wind
1,500
PJ
Hydro
Oil
Nuclear
1,000
Gas CCS
Gas
Coal CCS
500
Coal
-
2000
REF
LS REF
LC
LS LC
Lifestyle change increases the share of electricity in final demand,
but it limits the scale of electrification to meet tough carbon
targets.
Cost implications
ƒ Cost benefit comparison between scenarios
with different lifestyle is not appropriate as
preferences differ
ƒ Increased investment in insulation ~£2bn per
year
ƒ Reduced energy supply system costs of £90bn
per year in 2050
ƒ A low carbon energy system with lifestyle
change is ~£90bn per year cheaper – 2.5% of
projected GDP - in 2050
Conclusions
Lifestyle change can produce a combination of energy
service demand and technology change that:
ƒ reduce energy demand in homes and transport by more
than 50% below baseline levels by 2050
ƒ reduce national energy use and carbon emissions by
~30% below baseline
ƒ change end use technologies to increase the share of
electricity, but reduce the absolute increase in electricity
demand
ƒ reduce the cost of delivering a low carbon energy
system by ~ £90 billion