REGIONAL CLIMATE & WEATHER PREDICTION MODELLING in the Department of Physics

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REGIONAL CLIMATE &

WEATHER PREDICTION

MODELLING

in the Department of Physics

Noel Aquilina, MALTA CLIMATE TEAM

Discover University, Science Lecture Theatre, 14 th March 2011

CONTENTS

 History

 Models Installed & Performance

 Past & Current Research

 Upcoming Plans

HISTORY

The Department of Physics (DoP) has been active on Climate issues since 2001.

 National Communications

 MEPA entrusted the DoP with the coordination and preparation of the First

(2001-2004) and Second National Communications (2004-2010) to the

UNFCCC through the Project Manager and a National Expert.

 PRECIS

 Professor C. V. Sammut obtained the license through funding from the British

High Commission. Dr N. Aquilina installed the first version on a PC in 2008.

MODELS’ PERFORMANCE

Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe: 100x100 grid cells @ 50 km

 PRECIS

 12 Processors: ~ 11 days

 RegCM4

 120 Processors: ~ 8 days

 WRF

 2 day simulation at 10’ (~19 km) resolution (no nesting): ~ 30 minutes

PAST & CURRENT RESEARCH

Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Med iterranean CLI mate

VAR iability project) that coordinates and promotes the study of the

Mediterranean climate

Why the Mediterranean Basin?

 Enclosed by 3 major continents.

 Surrounded almost entirely by mountains.

 Very unique and sensitive to climate changes.

5

PAST & CURRENT RESEARCH

Previous Studies:

 Validation of PRECIS in the Mediterranean

 Impacts by Sulfate Aerosols

Temperature & Precipitation in different Zones

Vertical Atmospheric Analysis

PAST & CURRENT RESEARCH

Current:

 Validation of PRECIS over the Australian

Region

Effects of MOSES 2.2

ENSO effects in PRECIS

WRF

Current:

 WRF: Aerosol effect on relative humidity (RH) in Europe-CORDEX

Domain

Airborne particulates act as condensation points for humidity

Theory: Positive relationship between the two

RegCM4

NAO

NCP Teleconnections:

NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation

MO – Mediterranean Oscillation

NCP – North Sea-Caspian Pattern

CACO – Central African Caspian Oscillation MO

CACO

 Teleconnections effecting aerosol transport

 Variation in atmospheric pressure controls air motion

UPCOMING PLANS

COST Action ES1004 (Started 2011 – Ending 2015)

A European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling

This COST Action will focus on a new generation of online integrated

Atmospheric Chemical Transport (ACT) and Meteorology (Numerical Weather

Prediction and Climate) modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate.

UPCOMING PLANS

Assuming the MCT grows and we get more storage space:

 PRECIS

 Apply model for climate impact assessments

 RegCM4

 Short-term plan: Validate a newer version of RegCM4 using ECHAM5

 Long-term plan: Contribute to development of Chemistry module

 WRF

 Gain experience in setting up WRF-LES, WRF-CHEM

 Adapt LBCs from WRF to Local Scale Air Quality model for Malta

UPCOMING PLANS

25 km

UPCOMING PLANS

UPCOMING PLANS

25 km

UPCOMING PLANS

25 km

Source: MEPA Map Server, map based on CORINAIR 2006 data

3 km

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The MCT is grateful to the following:

PRECIS

 Met Office UK, C. Morrell, S. Tucker, D. Hein, D. Hassell

RegCM4

 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, X. Bi

WRF

 The WRF community

University of Malta

Department of Physics: C.V. Sammut, L. Zammit Mangion, A. Magro, D. Cutajar

IT Services: A. Zammit, S. Portelli, S. Ancilleri

MALTA CLIMATE TEAM

W: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies

W: on Facebook – Academic Group – Malta Climate Team

E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mt

T: +356 2340 3036

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