Climate Research in Malta
An Overview of Activities
Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici
Department of Physics
Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010
Overview
•
•
•
•
• Recent Work
Timeline
• MedCLIVAR
Workshop
The Models
Capacity Building • Current Projects
st Climate
•
1
Models’
Summer School
Performance
• MCT plans
2
Timeline
MedCLIVAR
Workshop 1
2
0
0
7
PRECIS 1.7.1
installation
& testing
PRECIS
1.8.2
update
RegCM4
Workshop
PRECIS
Sulfate
Research
2
0
0
9
WRF
installation
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
8
MedCLIVAR
Workshop 2
PRECIS
Workshop
PRECIS
license
2 undergraduate;
1 MSc student
PRECIS 1.7.1
operational;
3 undergraduate
students
MCT
PRECIS
1.9.1
update
1st Climate
Summer
School
RegCM4
testing
3
Introduction to the Models
4
PRECIS
Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies
PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the:
o UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA),
o UK Department for International Development (DFID),
o UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)
o United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and
o the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
• PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.
• To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.
• The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.
• These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.
5
PRECIS
6
PRECIS
7
PRECIS
8
RegCM4
RegCM4
PRECIS
•
•
•
License-based
MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs
Different Schemes
o Planetary Boundary Layer
o Radiation
o Precipitation
o Chemistry model (Sulfate)
•
•
•
•
Community-based
BATS & CLM LSMs
Different Schemes
o Planetary Boundary Layer
o Radiation
o Precipitation
o Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate,
Organic Carbon, Black Carbon)
o Clouds
o Ocean Flux
o Pressure Gradient Force
Lake model
9
RegCM4
Malta in Climate Models
10
RegCM4
Malta in Climate Models
11
WRF
Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
• Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both
operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.
• It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data
assimilation system.
• A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and
system extensibility.
• WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales
going down to 1 km.
• Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.
12
WRF
13
WRF
[Source: National Observatory of Athens]
14
WRF
• Collaborative research
o University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon
• BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects
o Examples:
• Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005
• Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean
• Attraction between Cities and Cyclones
15
Capacity Building
Workstations
2 Proc.
4 Proc.
ALBERT
768 Proc.
• PRECIS on 2 nodes
(Limited to 12 Proc. per
simulation)
• RegCM4 (runs on MPI)
• WRF installed & in testing
16
Models’ Performance
Considering a 30 year simulation,
Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells
• PRECIS
o Computer 4 (2P): ~39 days
o Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days
o Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days
• RegCM4
o Computer Cluster: ~8 days
• WRF:
in testing phase
17
Recent Work
PRECIS
• Undergraduate Projects 2009/10
o Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and
surrounding) region from different perspectives.
• Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli)
• Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia)
• Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`)
• Current Research
o Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`)
• Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
o Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri)
o Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)
18
Undergraduate Projects 2009/10
Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean
CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates and
promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate
Why the Mediterranean Basin?
• Enclosed by 3 major continents.
• Surrounded almost entirely by
mountains.
• Very unique and sensitive to
climate changes.
Simulation details
• GCM-HadAM3P
• PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used
• 1960-1990
• Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
• 100 x 100 cells
• 57°N-18°N
• 16°W-46°E
19
PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
ESRL
Solar Radiation at
Surface Level
1960-1990 Average
PRECIS
20
PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
21
PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the
atmosphere against Radiosonde data
22
Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the
atmosphere against Radiosonde data
23
Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the
atmosphere against Radiosonde data
24
Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the
atmosphere against Radiosonde data
25
Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Climate Zones
Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within
different climate zones
Temperature
Total Precipitation Rate
P
R
E
C
I
S
M
O
N
I
T
O
R
I
N
G
1960-1990
Average
S
T
A
T
I
O
N
S
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
26
PRECIS: Climate Zones
Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within
different climate zones
27
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
Future Projections
Temperature IS INCREASING
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
28
Future Projections
Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING
Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH
29
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate
Aerosols in the Atmosphere
1960-1990
Average
30
Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate
Aerosol in the Atmosphere
Parameter
Max Bias Mean Bias Min Bias
Surface Temperature
1.59
0.82
0.05
Solar Radiation
-6.99
-10.45
-15.63
Thermal Radiation
3.77
1.01
-1.37
1960-1990
Daily Temperature RangeAverage
-0.32
-1.98
-3.52
Convective Precipitation
-1.48
-3.08
-5.80
Relative Humidity
-3.01
-5.46
-8.38
31
Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop
23rd-25th September 2010
ICTP, Trieste
Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under
Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.
32
PRECIS: Current Research
Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the
atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.
33
Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO
(Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research
Organization) and comparing results with their model,
CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)
Why Australia?
• Large variety of different climates
• Complex island system in the ITCZ
Simulation details:
• GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5
• PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used
• 1960-1990/ 1990-2020
• Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
• 174 x 150 cells
• 22°N-49°S
• 83°E-166°E
34
LSM Project
PRECIS 1.7.1
MOSES I
1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken mode
PRECIS 1.9.1
MOSES 2.2
35
ENSO Project
36
MSc using RegCM4
Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around
Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.
Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
NAO-
NAO+
37
Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
38
Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
39
st
1
•
Climate Summer School
8 Students attended
• Day 1: Introduction to
Meteorology I
• Day 2: Introduction to
Meteorology II
• Day 3: Data Mining; Post
Processing Software installation
• Day 4: Using Panoply data
viewer; Introduction to PRECIS
• Day 5: The PRECIS outputs
• Day 6: Introduction to NCL
•
2nd Climate Summer School
o New Models (RegCM4, WRF)
o Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV)
o Mini-Project
40
Immediate Plans
• Gain more experience
o Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics
• Encourage more people to work in the MCT
o Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and
Statisticians.
o There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer
research experiences are available
• Prepare interested students through new studyunits.
41
New Study-Units
Fundamentals of
Meteorology
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of meteorology
• Physics of weather
systems
• Distinguishing and
identifying weather
systems from climate
data
• Applying meteorology to
climate research
A Multidisciplinary
approach to Climate
Research
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of climate
• Operating climate
models
• Post-processing
• Using appropriate
Statistical methods
• Hands-on experience to
climate research
Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12
42
New Study-Units
Fundamentals of
Meteorology
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of meteorology
• Physics of weather
systems
• Distinguishing and
identifying weather
systems from climate
data
• Applying meteorology to
climate research
A Multidisciplinary
approach to Climate
Research
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of climate
• Operating climate
models
• Post-processing
• Using appropriate
Statistical methods
• Hands-on experience to
climate research
Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12
43
Long-Term Plans
• Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research
o Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP
o Needed:
• Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers
• Associated projects
o Studying long range transport of pollutants
o Evaluate different schemes
o Apply different statistical treatments to climate data
o Testing out new code
44
International Collaborations
Sponsored by:
• International Council for Science (ICSU)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO
The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine:
• the predictability of climate
• the effect of human activities on climate
These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC.
A multi-disciplinary approach:
• Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects
• Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by
any one nation or single scientific discipline
The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable
global climate observations and models
45
CORDEX
COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment
CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework.
• To produce an improved generation of regional climate change
projections world-wide
• To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5
timeline and beyond
MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and
regional coupled systems.
• Developing new experiments to test new components and improved
schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean
Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations)
CORDEX WRF-Community:
This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as
opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.
46
CORDEX
47
The MCT on the Web
UoM-Physics Webpage:
http://www.um.edu.mt/science/
physics/climate_studies
48
The MCT on the Web
UoM-Physics Webpage:
http://www.um.edu.mt/science/
physics/climate_studies
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/grou
p.php?gid=155998907759229
49
Acknowledgements
Nick Archer
Charles V Sammut
Louis Zammit Mangion
Pierre-Sandre Farrugia
Denis Cutajar
Adam Gauci
Alessio Magro
Shawn Cassar
http://um.edu.mt/science/physics
Simon Tucker
Chloe Morrell
David Hein
David Hassell
http://precis.metoffice.com/
Marcus Thatcher
Jack Katzfey
John McGregor
http://cmar.csiro.au
Graziano Giuliani
Stefano Cozzini
http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/espmodels/regcm3
Mary Hailey
Dennis Shea
http://ncar.ucar.edu/
50
Thank You
MALTA CLIMATE TEAM
W: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies
E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mt
T: +356 2340 3036
51