Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 Market Structure and Political Differentiation of Newspapers in the Framework of Two-sided Markets Hend Ghazzai* We consider two editors competing in both the newspapers' market and the advertising market. We assume that readers may be positively or negatively affected by advertising and advertisers are positively affected by the audience of the newspaper. We characterize the equilibria of a game where editors must choose their political content, their prices and their advertising rates. We show how two-sided interactions affect both the market structure and the political content of newspapers. Keywords: Two-Sided Markets, Advertising, Newspapers' Competition, Political Differentiation JEL Code: L11 I. Introduction and Literature Review Commercial media such as newspapers, magazines, TV channels operate in two markets. They sell their product to readers or viewers and they sell advertising space to advertisers. Readers are affected by the amount of advertising in such media and advertisers take into consideration the audience of the media when making advertising decisions. These demand linkages are referred to in the literature as twosided network effects1. In this paper, we study the press industry. Taking into consideration the dependence of editors on advertisers and their need to satisfy politically differentiated readers, the objective is to examine the consequences of such effects on the market structure and on the political content of newspapers. Will a competitive market structure prevail at equilibrium or will two-sided network externalities confirm the tendency of concentration observed in media markets? The nature of content delivered by the newspapers is also a crucial issue. Will editors offer a differentiated content tailored to different types of readers or a standardized and moderated content corresponding to a neutral reader? While the first question about market structure has been well studied in previous works either in the media industry framework or in the general framework of two-sided markets, the second question received little attention. To our knowledge, the political content of newspapers was not studied in the framework of a two-sided market2. While advertisers are clearly positively affected by the audience of the media, the attitudes of readers or viewers toward advertising is not obvious. This attitude is mainly affected by the type of media and is also country specific. It is generally * Dr.Hend Ghazzai, Department of Finance and economics, College of Business and Economics, Qatar University. P.O. Box 2713 Doha, Qatar. E-mail: hend.ghazzai@qu.edu.qa. Tel: +974 44 03 50 86. Fax: +974 44 03 5081 1 See (Rochet and Tirole , 2003) and (Armstrong, 2006) for the literature review about two-sided markets. 2 (Gabszewicz et al, 2002) study the political differentiation of newspapers when readers are not affected by advertising. Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 accepted that TV viewers are negatively affected by advertising3. However, readers of newspapers may be positively or negatively affected by advertising. In the US, many papers either theoretical or empirical support the positive effect of advertising on readers ((Blair and Romano, 1993), (Rosse, 1980), (Bogart, 1989), (Ferguson, 1983)...). In Europe, consumers' reactions to advertising are more mitigated and readers can be either positively or negatively affected by advertising. Advertising may be considered in the latter case as polluting the main objective of a newspaper which is to deliver valuable information (See (Musnick,1999) and (Sonnac, 2000). In this paper, like in (Ferrando et al, 2008), we consider the general case of a continuum of readers where a proportion are ad-avoiders and the rest are ad-lovers. In the literature on two-sided markets applied to the media industry, authors assume the existence of either positive or negative network externalities for the audience. The negative externalities where mainly studied in the broadcasting market where the good into consideration is a public good4. When consumers value advertising positively, the main result is that there is a tendency to market concentration in the media industry5. To our knowledge only (Ferrando et al, 2008) consider two types of readers ad-avoiders and ad-lovers. Unlike (Ferrando et al, 2008), we do not impose exogenously fixed locations for the newspapers. In addition to the determination of the market structure that prevails at equilibrium, we also determine the type of political content that will be offered by editors. In fact, we analyze the decisions in terms of newspaper prices, advertising rates and political locations of two competing editors in both the newspapers and advertising markets. We assume that readers and advertisers first form expectations about the advertising space in each newspaper and about the readerships respectively. Editors then decide where to locate on the political spectrum and set newspaper prices and advertising rates simultaneously. Finally, advertisers and readers make their purchase decisions. We characterize the fulfilled expectations equilibria of this game and show how the equilibria are affected by the intensity of the audience feelings about advertising and by the type of the audience i.e. whether the audience is constituted of a majority of ad-lovers or a majority of ad-avoiders. We prove that different market structures may prevail at equilibrium: a symmetric duopoly, an asymmetric duopoly or a monopoly. When the market structure is a duopoly, newspapers choose maximum differentiation and locate at the extremities of the political spectrum. Therefore, competition leads to divergent ideologies of the newspapers. Editors cater to consumers' beliefs and deliver an extremist content targeting extremist readers. When a monopoly emerges at equilibrium, the newspaper offers a neutral content and locates at the middle of the political spectrum delivering an unbiased content. It seems that the lack of competition resulting from strong feelings toward advertising is compensated by the type of political content offered by the surviving editor. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2, introduces the model. We present the results in Section 3 . We conclude in section 5. 3 See (Gal-Or, 2003), (Anderson and Coate, 2005), (Gabszewicz et al, 2004) for theoretical model and (Brown and Rotchild, 1993), (Danaher, 1995) and (Dukes, 2004) for empirical models. 4 See (Choi, 2006), (Cunningham and Alexander, 2004), (Masson et al, 1990) and (Anderson and Coate, 2005). 5 See (Armstrong, 2005), (Rochet and Tirole, 2003), (Hackner and Nyberg, 2008)). Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 II. The Model We consider two editors selling one newspaper each to a population of readers and selling advertising space in their newspaper to a population of firms. Thus, each editor has two revenue sources: an editorial revenue generated by the sales of the newspaper itself and an advertising revenue generated by the sales of the advertising space. Consumers in each market will make their consumption decisions based on the expected demands in the other market. In fact, advertisers' demands depend on their expectations about newspapers' sales and readers' purchase decisions are affected by the amount of advertising they expect to find in the newspaper. We denote by and the amount of advertising in each newspaper expected by readers and we denote by and the readership of each newspaper expected by advertisers. The Newspaper Market We consider a population of readers characterized by their political opinion t and distributed on the political spectrum [0, 1], Editor 1 is located at distance from point 0 and Editor 2 is located at distance from the point 1. At each point t of the political spectrum [0,1], there corresponds a continuum of readers [0,1] divided in two sub-groups: a proportion of readers are ad-avoiders and a proportion 1- are ad-lovers. Ad-avoiders lose utility when the advertising space in the newspaper increases. Adlovers gain utility when the advertising space in the newspaper increases. The parameter β measures the intensity of ad-aversion or ad-attraction of readers and is assumed to be positive. The utility loss of an ad-avoider reader located at distance t on the political spectrum and buying newspaper 1 is given by: The utility loss of an ad-avoider reader located at distance t on the political spectrum and buying newspaper 2 is given by: The utility loss of an ad-lover reader located at distance t on the political spectrum and buying newspaper 1 is given by: The utility loss of an ad-lover reader located at distance t on the political spectrum and buying newspaper 2 is given by: An ad-avoider who is indifferent between buying newspaper 1 or newspaper 2 is characterized by for which the equality 6 holds, i.e. 6 It is assumed here that examined later. or Thus, The case where will be Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 An ad-lover who is indifferent between buying newspaper 1 or newspaper 2 is characterized by for which the equality ( ) holds, i.e. We notice that and thus Figure 1 illustrates newspaper’s demands in both cases assuming that each editor has a positive market share. and Figure 1: Newspapers’ Demands 𝑥𝑒 𝑥𝑒 𝑥𝑒 1 𝑥𝑒 1 𝛾 𝛾 0 𝑡𝛼 𝑡𝜆 1 0 𝑡𝜆 𝑡𝛼 1 Buy Newspaper 1 Buy Newspaper 2 We denote by . The demand for newspapers are as follows: The demand function of newspaper 1 is if if if The demand function of newspaper 2 is if if if The difference ( ) and the proportion of ad-avoiders play an important role in determining the demand of each newspaper. At equal prices and for symmetric locations, if readers expect newspaper i to attract more advertisers than newspaper j ( ) and if there is a majority of ad-lovers the readership of newspaper i will be more important than the readership of newspaper j. On the contrary, if there is a majority of ad-avoiders, newspaper j will have more readers than newspaper i. Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 We now study the case follows: If and , the demand functions are given as if and ( if and ) if In case both editors choose to locate at the center and at equal prices, the newspaper which is expected to offer more advertising attracts the ad-lovers and the newspaper which is expected to offer less advertising attracts the ad-avoiders. Finally, when both newspapers choose to locate at the center of the political spectrum and if then the newspaper with the lowest price attracts all the demand and if prices are equal then . The Advertising Market The advertisers are characterized by their willingness to advertise in a newspaper. They are uniformly distributed on the unit interval [0, 1]. Each advertiser buys exactly one ad in only one of the two newspapers. The utility of an advertiser depends on the expected readership of each newspaper .The utility of buying an ad from newspaper i increases proportionately to the expected readership. More precisely, the utility of buying an ad in newspaper i at the unit rate is given by This is a vertical differentiation model a la Mussa and Rosen for the advertisers. The advertiser who is indifferent between advertising in newspaper 1 or 2 is given by: ̂ ̂ ̂ In the previous equality, it is assumed that . The case where advertisers expect the same readership for both newspapers is examined below: If then and . If then and . If If and then o If o If then and . and The Fulfilled Expectations Equilibrium Editors will choose their locations (political orientation), prices and advertising rates according to the following sequencing: Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 1. Readers form expectations about the advertising volumes in the newspapers and advertisers form expectations about the readership of each newspaper. 2. Editors choose their location on the political spectrum. 3. Editors choose the price of their newspapers and the advertising rates simultaneously. 4. Readers and advertisers make their purchase decisions. We consider a fulfilled expectations equilibrium represented by a couple of strategies ( ) and a vector of expected demands such that I. II. Each editor chooses its location, newspaper price and advertising rate as a best reply to the location and prices of the competitor, given readers' and advertisers' expectations. Expectations are fulfilled, i.e if then and if then . If then and if then . If an equilibrium exists, it is a Bertrand equilibrium given the expectations of readers and advertisers. As at the Bertrand equilibrium, the expectations may not be fulfilled, by condition 2, we restrict the equilibria to those where expectations are fulfilled. III. Results We now determine the equilibria of the game presented in Section II by backward induction. We characterize the price equilibrium, the location choice of the editors and we examine fulfilled expectations equilibria. 1. The Price Equilibrium Given the readership expectations and , the advertising expectations and and the newspapers locations and , we determine the newspapers' prices and the advertising rates of each editor. Editors have two sources of revenue: an editorial revenue and an advertising revenue. Editor i’ s profit is given by: Lemma 1 characterizes the prices and demands in the newspaper market and Lemma 2 characterizes the prices and demands in the advertising market. All prices satisfy condition 1 of our equilibrium.7 Lemma 1 The pair of prices satisfying condition (1) of the Bertrand equilibrium and the corresponding newspapers demands are as follows: If ) ) ) ) ) 7 If ) All proofs are provided in the Appendix. then then Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 ) If ) then ) For symmetric locations and if there is a majority of ad-lovers, the newspaper which is expected to attract the more advertisers sets a higher price for its newspaper and attracts more readers. The opposite occurs when there is a majority of ad-avoiders. If readers expect one editor to attract much more advertisers than the other only one editor survives at equilibrium. The price equilibrium given by Lemma 1 implicitly supposes that or . When and , we easily prove from newspapers' demands that a price equilibrium does not exist as best response functions do not exist for both editors. When and the price equilibrium is when both newspapers set prices equal to 0. Lemma 2 The pair of prices satisfying condition (1) of our equilibrium and the corresponding advertising demands are as follows: if then ( ) and if then ̅ ̅ and if then and 2. Location Choice In this section, we determine editors' locations i.e. the political image of the newspaper. We focus on two cases that depend on the advertising expectations and on the intensity of ad-aversion or ad-attraction . Readers may expect one editor to attract much more advertisers than the other. This situation happens when ( ) . In this case should be sufficiently high so that the previous inequality is satisfied. Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 Readers may expect editors to offer similar advertising spaces. This situation happens when ( ) . In this case should not be very high8. We have the following results: Lemma 3 The best location choices for firms are: if if if then * and then * and then + Only newspaper 1 is active. and + Only newspaper 2 is active. Both newspapers are active. The concentration of the market depends on advertising expectations. If advertising expectations favor one newspaper then only one newspaper is active. Depending on the sign of i.e. depending on whether there is a majority of ad-lovers or a majority of ad-avoiders, the active editor is the editor that attracts the more advertisers if there is a majority of ad-lovers and the editor that attracts the less advertisers if there is a majority of ad-avoiders. As ( ) is greater than 1, there is market concentration only when readers are very sensitive to advertising. More interestingly, the active editor locates at the middle of the political spectrum. The editor's ideology is then at the center offering an unbiased content to a neutral reader. The loss in terms of competition is thus compensated by the unbiased content offered by the editor. If readers expect editors to offer similar advertising spaces and if they are not very affected by advertising, both firms are active at the location stage of the game and editors will offer a completely differentiated content as they will locate at the extremities of the political spectrum. However, the equilibrium will not be symmetric in terms of prices and demands if readers do not expect exactly the same advertising space in each newspaper. The market is thus competitive and editors target extremist readers. When we have proved in the previous section that the only possible price equilibrium is when In this case, the editors set a null price for their newspapers and do not generate any profit from the readers. The locations' choice ( ) is then dominated by the choice ( ). 3. The Fulfilled Expectations Equilibria We now characterize the fulfilled expectations equilibria. Proposition For any value of there exists a fulfilled expectations symmetric equilibrium where newspapers offer a completely differentiated content, with equal prices and markets shares. This equilibrium is unique when When 8 , there also exists two other types of equilibria: We only have partial results for the case are not easy to fully characterize. ( ) as the optimal newspapers' locations Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 If ( ) only newspaper i is active. The active newspaper is located at the middle of the political spectrum. If ( ) , both newspapers are active and are located at the extremities of the political spectrum. Newspaper i has a higher demand and attracts more advertisers. When there is majority of ad-avoiders ( ) only a unique equilibrium exists and this equilibrium is symmetric. This equilibrium is such that . At equilibrium, newspapers demands are equal to . Newspapers prices are equal to 1. Advertising demands are equal to and advertising rates are equal to 0. Newspapers offer a completely differentiated content ( ). This equilibrium also exists when . When the expectations are symmetric then the equilibrium is symmetric. The editors do not generate any profit from the advertising market and their only revenue source is from the newspaper market. In case of significant ad-attraction, the editor which is expected to offer more advertising is more attractive to readers. The more readers the editor attracts, the more advertisers will wish to advertise in its newspaper and so on until the competitor exits the market. A sort of "circulation spiral" occurs. The concentration in the newspaper industry seems to be generated by a high ad-attraction and the dependence of editors on advertising. If ad-attraction is not very significant, the newspaper which is expected to offer more advertising is the leader in both the advertising and the newspaper markets. The leading editor sets higher prices in both markets. IV. Conclusion We have studied in this paper, the strategies of two editors competing in both the newspapers market and the advertising market and we have shown how two sided interactions affect the market structure and the type of political content offered by editors. The paper can be extended in many ways. We can examine the case were advertisers in addition to the audience also care about the political opinion delivered by newspapers and prefer not to publish in very extremist ones. This may eliminate some of the equilibria where editors locate at the extremities of the political spectrum. We may also consider the case of targeted advertising and how it affects the equilibria. Finally, we can distinguish between two types of content delivered by newspapers: the political content and the non-political one and examine how advertising affects the spaces allocated to each type of content in the newspaper. References Anderson, S.P. and Coate, S. 2005, Market Provision of Broadcasting: A Welfare Analysis, The Review of Economic Studies, 72(4), p.947-972. Armstrong, M. 2006, Competition in Two-Sided Markets, The Rand Journal of Economics, Vol.37, No.3, pp.668-691. Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 Blair, R.D. and Romano, R.E. 1993, Pricing Decisions of the Newspaper Monopolist, Southern Economic Journal, 59, p.721-732. Bogart, L. 1989, Press and Public: Who Reads What, Where and Why in American Newspapers, 2nd ed, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. 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Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 Appendix Proof of Lemma 1. When both newspapers have positive demands. The derivatives of the editors' profits with respect to prices are given by: Setting both derivatives equal to 0 leads to the following first order conditions: The solution to the first order conditions are given by: with corresponding demands given by As both demand must be positive the condition ) must hold. To completely characterize the price equilibrium, we need to determine the reaction functions of both firms and then to examine their intersections. The reply functions of Newspapers 1 and 2 are given by: { { By distinguishing 3 cases: ) ) and ) , we determine the intersection points of the reply functions as given in Lemma 1. ■ Proof of Lemma 2. Obvious. It is the price equilibrium of a vertically differentiated market when the market is covered. ■ Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 Proof of Lemma 3. Let us first examine the case check that the inequality is never satisfied whatever are and )>1. We can easily ) . Thus, only Editor 1 can be active at equilibrium and the best location for Editor 1 is choose any location while Editor 2 will . The optimal locations when the previous case. )<-1are found using the same argument as in Let us now examine the case ) We will determine the best location choice of Editor 1 as a function of the location choice of Editor 2 and the best location choice of Editor 2 as a function of the location choice of Editor 1. The profit of newspaper 1 is given by: The derivative of with respect to is if and only if As then has two roots √ √ The variation table of is then given by + As - + , to find the location that maximizes editor 1’s profit, we need to discuss the position of and with respect to 0 and . Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 We easily check that as ) . Now let us compare We have that then and if and only if . Let us study the sign of . The quadratic expression has √ two roots √ and We easily check that Thus: We also easily check that and If The root then for every . 9 if and only if . , and thus If then if , and if , . The optimal strategies of Editor 1 are then: If If ) then ) then √ o if then o if √ then Now we compare and ( or . )when ) and √ ( First, ) ( ) is negative and therefore ( is decreasing with respect to ) . Then, is negative then positive and therefore decreases and then increases with respect to . By 9 √ ( ) because ) and )< . ( √ ( ) first ). Proceedings of 4th European Business Research Conference 9 - 10 April 2015, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-922069-72-6 We find that √ ( ( ) ) approaches when approaches and , there is only one o if o if √ ( ). As ( ) √ such that then then Similarly, the best strategy of Editor 2 is the following: If If - ) such that o if o if then ) √ then there exists only one then then The equilibrium at the location stage of the game is given by reply functions intersect at this point for ).■ as the best Proof of Proposition 1. We first examine the symmetric expectations case where and . Then, we have that ) and thus , , , and Using the fulfilled expectations equilibria condition, we have that . Next, we prove that only this symmetric equilibrium exists when Without loss of generality let us assume that there exist an asymmetric equilibrium such that . We examine the two cases ) < -1 or . If ) < -1, editor 2 is active. Thus and , a contradiction with the fulfilled expectations equilibria. The same reasoning holds when demands but , which means that and thus , both editors have positive Hence, a contradiction. Two other equilibria may exist when i.e. when there is a majority of ad-lovers. The fulfilled expectations condition is satisfied in both cases: ) >1 and )< .■