Market potential of electric
vehicles: ready for takeoff?
Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis
MOBI
MOSI
en Logistiek
MOSI– Transport
– Transport
& Logistics
http://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T
EU car fleet by Fuel type
Other
3%
Diesel
35%
Gasoline
62%
Source: ACEA, 2012
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.2
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.3
MOBI: themes and tools
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.4
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Environmentally friendly vehicles research @
MOBI
Policy
evaluation
Purchase behaviour
assessment
Tax reform
analyses
Travel
behaviour
assessment
Life cycle
cost
calculations
Batteries
Vehicle choice
modelling
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Technology
Pag.5
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
The diffusion of innovations curve
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.6
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Structure
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.7
Part I: Why does this
matter?
MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.9
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.10
Historic GHG emissions from transport
and targets for 2050 (EU27)
CO2 emissions from transport in
the EU27 (Mtonnes)
1,200
1,000
-70%
800
-60%
600
400
emissions 1990-2009
200
White Paper objectives
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
-20%
Pag.11
Based on White Paper – Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area
Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system
Life Cycle Assessment
Raw
materials
Refining and
transport
Distribution
Usage
Raw
materials
Assembly and
distribiution
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Production of
components
Waste
Pag.12
See CLEVER project
@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm
Climate change
(Life Cycle Assessment in g CO2 eq)
See CLEVER project
@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.13
Ref: Van Mierlo J., Macharis C., Boureima F., Messagie M., Turcksin L.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.14
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
1-12-2012
Pag.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
1-12-2012
Pag.
Evolution of crude oil price
West Texas Intermediate
160
140
USD per barrel
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
97
98
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
99
Pag.17
Ref: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx
October 2012
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.18
Structure
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.19
History
1899
70ties
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.20
Today Tesla Model S
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
0 – 96 km/h in 4.4s
209 km/h
260-370-480 km range
Starts from €43.000
Pag.21
Before 2011…
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.22
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
BEVs and PHEVs in 2012
Battery electric vehicles
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles
Pag.23
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Tomorrow’s electric vehicles
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.24
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
EVs in different car segments
Small car
Citroën C-zero
Renault Twizzy
Mitsubishi iMiEV
Renault Fluence
Ford Focus BEV
Nissan Leaf
Medium
sized car
Sports car
Audi E-tron
Mercedes SLS AMG
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Fisker Karma
Pag.25
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.26
Survey setting
Target group
Flanders, 18+ year
Pilot survey
BMS January 2011
Data collection
11 days (2-13 May 2011)
Quantitative
survey
2.037 sent
1.196 received
Average length
survey
26 min and 20 sec
Environment
Online
Flanders
Wallonia
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Europe
Pag.27
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Opportunities for EVs
Low cost per km
Environmentally friendly
Charge @ home
Governmental subsidy
Charge @ work
Free parking
Limited noise - comfort
Reserved parking space
Reserved driving lane
Entrance to low emission zones
No gearbox
Pionier new technology
Acceleration
Smart phone applications
Styling - looks
0%
Crucial advantage
20%
Very important advantage
30%
40%
50%
Important advantage
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Not important advantage
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
10%
Pag.28
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Top 3
Low
cost per km
Environmental friendly
Charge at home
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.29
Barriers for EVs
High purchase price
Limited driving range
Limited public charging infrastructure
Long charging time
No charge @ home when no garage
Uncertainty residual value
Limited vehicle supply
Uncertainty new technology
Not much information available
Limited top speed
No noise (dangerous for pedestrians)
No noise (engine)
No manual gearbox
Styling - looks
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Crucial disadvantage
Very important disadvantage
Important disadvantage
Not important disadvantage
80%
90%
100%
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
10%
Pag.30
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Top 3 : Barriers for EVs
Expensive initial purchase cost
Limited driving range
Limited charging
infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.31
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.32
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
TCO methodology
TCO Methodology
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.33
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Total cost of ownership
10000,00
City cars
Medium cars
8000,00
6000,00
4000,00
2000,00
0,00
-2000,00
Support
Taxation
Fuel
Maintenance
Insurance
Battery
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Depreciation
Pag.34
Calculation April 2012
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Total cost of ownership: City cars
7000,00
6000,00
5000,00
4000,00
Battery
Insurance
3000,00
Maintenance
2000,00
Fuel
Taxation
1000,00
Depreciation
Support
0,00
-1000,00
-2000,00
BEVs
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.35
Calculation April 2012
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Total cost of ownership: Medium cars
8000,00
7000,00
6000,00
5000,00
Battery
4000,00
Insurance
Maintenance
3000,00
Fuel
2000,00
Taxation
Depreciation
1000,00
Support
0,00
-1000,00
-2000,00
HEVs
PHEVs
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
BEVs
Pag.36
Calculation April 2012
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Battery electric vehicles on the market
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
37
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.37
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
The well known OEM’s are coming…
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.38
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Quadricycles
TCO (€urocents
urocents per km)
Car inspection
35,0
Road Tax
30,0
Insurance
25,0
20,0
Savings/costs
from taxable
profits
Subsidies
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
Battery Costs
-5,0
Maintenance
-10,0
Alke
Alke
Alke
Goupil G5 Goupil G3
ATX200 P ATX200 D ATX200 E EV (680kg) EV (700kg)
(500kg) (500kg) (500kg)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Fuel/electricity
costs
Pag.39
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Vehicles below 1 ton
TCO (€urocents
urocents per km)
Car
inspection
40,0
Road Tax
35,0
30,0
Insurance
25,0
20,0
Savings/costs
from taxable
profits
Subsidies
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
-5,0
Battery Costs
-10,0
Renault
Kangoo
Express
P
(650kg)
Renault Renault Mooville Mooville
Kangoo Kangoo 2m³ EV 4m³ EV
Express
ZE
(450kg) (700kg)
D
(650kg)
(650kg)
Maintenance
Fuel/electricit
y costs
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Renault
Kangoo
Compact
Diesel
(500kg)
Pag.40
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Vehicles above 1 ton
TCO (€urocents
urocents per km)
Car inspection
100,0
Road Tax
80,0
Insurance
60,0
Savings/costs
from taxable
profits
Subsidies
40,0
20,0
Battery Costs
0,0
Maintenance
-20,0
Mercedes IVECO Daily IVECO
Smith
Sprinter D (1500kg) Ecodaily EV Edison EV
(1500kg)
(1000kg) (1255kg)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Fuel/electricity
costs
Pag.41
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Battery cost forecast
-60%
2010
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
42
Pag.
2020
Ref: The China New Energy Vehicles Program challengesVrije
and Opportunities,
april 2011
Universiteit Brussel
MOSI – T
Barriers for EVs
Expensive initial purchase cost
Limited driving range
Limited charging
infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.43
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Average daily travelled distance
7%
93%
Ref:
BELDAM,
2012
Vrije Universiteit
Brussel
MOSI
–T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Less than
40km
More than
40km
Pag.44
Cornelis, E., Hubert, M., Huynen, P., Lebrun, K., Patriarche, G., De Witte, A., Creemers, L.,
Declercq, K., janssens, D., Castaigne, M., Hollaert, L. & F. Walle (2012) “La mobilité en Belgique
en 2010: résultats de l’enquête BELDAM » Rapport final, Septembre 2012.
Energy (Wh/kg)
x2
x2
x2
x2
Lead
Nickel
Lithium
2020
2030
30 – 35
50 – 80
80 – 200
400 - 600
800- 1200?
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.45
Barriers for EVs
Expensive initial purchase cost
Limited driving range
Limited charging
infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.46
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Charging infrastructure
Normal charging
95%
(overnight, cheap,
available everywhere,
efficient)
Wireless inductive charging
Battery swap
Fast charging (5%)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.47
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Infrastructure
Work
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Home
Pag.48
Impact of charging infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.49
Characteristics of CHAdeMO Quick Charging System
Takafumi Anegawa, EVS25; 2010
Impact of charging infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.50
Characteristics of CHAdeMO Quick Charging System
Takafumi Anegawa, EVS25; 2010
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.51
Market potential of BEVs and PHEVs
Large scale survey
Choice based conjoint analysis
• Horizon
• 2012 (ST)
• 2020 (MLT)
• 2030 (LT)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.52
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Choice-based conjoint (CBC)
Range
Price
Max
speed
Car B
Car C
300 km
500 km
400 km
€15.000 €17.500 €12.500
100
km/h
140
km/h
120
km/h
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Car A
Pag.53
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Screenshot of CBC
o
o
o
o
o
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.54
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
CBC results: weight of attributes
20%
19%
16%
14%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
8%
8%
7%
7%
4%
0%
N = 1196
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.55
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Forecasts
1%
100%
4%
90%
18%
BEV
5%
7%
15%
PHEV
16%
80%
29%
70%
60%
50%
40%
77%
72%
30%
56%
Diesel
+Petrol
Petrol
20%
10%
Diesel
0%
2012
2030
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
2020
Pag.56
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
EV fleet in Belgium
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
2007
Pag.57
Source: MOBI – VUB – 2012
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.58
EV financial incentives in Europe
Austria
Ireland
No fuel consumption tax & no monthly vehicle tax
Max € 5,000 benefit on registration tax
Belgium
Italy
30 % tax reduction on purchase price of EV (max € 9,190)
No registration tax in Flanders and lowest circulation tax
No circulation tax (first 5 years)
Czech Republic
€ 5,000 for EV (ends in 2013)
No road tax for EV
The Netherlands
Denmark
No registration and circulation tax
No registration tax for EVs
(normally between 105% and 180%)
Norway
Luxemburg
No VAT, free parking,
exemption from certain tolls
Germany
Portugal
No annual circulation tax (first 5 years)
No registration and circulation tax
Spain
Romania
€ 2,000 to € 7,000 for EV
No registration tax
Finland
Sweden
Minimum rate of registration tax (5%)
Max € 1,600 for EV
no circulation tax (first 5 years)
France
Max € 5,000 for EV
No company car tax
United Kingdom
Max £ 5,000 for EV, no annual
circulation and company car tax
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Source: MOBI
Vrije Universiteit Brussel 2012
Pag.59
Data is not exhaustive!
Ref: MOBI; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2012, based on data from AVERE
Public incentives and support for
infrastructure
Ireland
2.000 home chargers, 1.500 public slow
chargers, 30 public fast chargers
United Kingdom
9,3 mio GBP for charging infrastructure
Target: 1.300 public charging stations in
2013 in London
Norway
6 mio euro in 2009-2010 for 1.830 normal charging points
1,25 mio euro in 2011-2012 for 48 fast charging stations
19 regions: 1 mio euro yearly for slow/fast chargers
France
Belgium
50 mio euro (2011-2015)
for 20 cities (slow/fast)
40%, (max 250 euro) (ends 2012)
13,5% tax cut of investment for companies
installing fast chargers
Spain
Austria
40% in MOVELE plan
(Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla),
around 500 charging stations
Regional supports: 25%
€1.000 for charging station (2010-2011)
Regional support: 30%
Italy
Portugal
MOBI.E netwerk: 1.300 slow chargers
and 50 fast chargers
5 pilot projects, up to 2015,
>1.000 charging stations
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Source: MOBI
Vrije Universiteit Brussel 2012
Pag.60
Data is not exhaustive!
Ref: MOBI; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2012, based on data from AVERE
Government support
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.61
Types of support
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.62
Living Labs for EVs in Flanders
• 2011-2014
• 5 platforms
• 600+ EVs
• 600+ charging points
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.63
Market
potential
Policy
measures
Ready
for takeoff?
Demand
Supply
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.64
Conclusions
Market
potential
Demand
Supply
Yes!
Necessary!
Yes!
Yes,
but not
huge
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Barriers
will
become
lower!
Policy
measures
Ready
for take
off?
Pag.65
More info?
Prof. Cathy Macharis
Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Prof. Peter Van den Bossche
Kenneth Lebeau
Philippe Lebeau
1979 - Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Contact
Cathy.Macharis@vub.ac.be
http://mobi.vub.ac.be
www.asbe.be
Vrije Universiteit Brussel MOSI – T
VUB-MOBI
1-12-2012
Pag.66