Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
Strategic Shift - A Model for Rare Earth Self-Sufficiency for
Japanese Industries
S.N. Jehan
Japanese automobile as well a large number of high tech industries use rare earth
(REs) elements are feeling the crunch lately as China, a traditional as well largest
supplier of REs for Japanese industry occasionally threatens to restrict RE supply to
Japan, that in the backdrop of lingering historical and political disputes that two
countries still harbor. For Japan strategic dependencies of such nature, however,
pose a serious threat. Lately, it has become obvious that Japan cannot remain
dependent for its RE supplies onsuch conventional but shaky sources. However
China, producing more than 90% of the world REs, is a source Japan can neither
totally divorce nor completely embrace unless more reliable and sustainable
alternatives are developed. Present state of affairs is unsustainable in the long run,
as it compromises the country’s strategic and commercial independence. A large
number of Japanese industries, like automobiles, computers, electronics, energy etc.
use REs for manufacturing of high-tech products. Japan imports close to 2/3rd of its
REs from China. On the other hand, some 40% of China’s RE exports go to Japan.
Tactically, it seems important to engage in the development and acquisition of REs
from both conventional as well as new resources around the world. However, on a
strategic level, Japan will need to have a greater investment in RE R&D and supply
chain development. Investment in RE R&D will promote development of novel
supply chains and technologies to address three important areas i.e. greater
efficiencies in RE use, alternatives for REs, and recycling of REs. Last but not least,
the tactical and strategic policies thus required would not be possible without being
integrated into a proper policy framework that brings together private-public
partnership. The paper addresses all these issues in an ex-ante and ex-post
perspective to delineate and demarcate the strategic and policy alternatives suitable
to Japanese businesses.
Key words: Rare Earth Strategy, R&D Investment, Neural Networks, Dream Value
Introduction
The paper is about rare earth elements (REs) policies,alternative strategies, and a
workable RE investmentmodel for Japan. It is an important and challenging paper
that investigates tactical, strategic, and policy alternatives available to Japan in the
acquisition and usage of REs. In this paper we also attempt to lay down a design
and theoretical framework for investment into R&D of REs to allow a viable privatepublic partnership. An attempt has been made to lay out a workable model leading to
achieve short-term and long-term self-sufficiency. Furthermore, we point out
potential business model and policy changes necessary to ensure long-term survival
of the Japanese high-tech industry in the face of the challenges that it faces today.
The paper proposes that Japan can withstand these challenges making the best of
possible choices ahead.
A Historical Perspective:
In September 2010, a Chinese boat collides with Japanese patrol ships in South
China Sea near Senkaku Islands. Apparently a benign event, the outcome
_______________
Dr. S.N. Jehan, Associate Professor, Graduate School, Tohoku Koeki University, Japan
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
reverberates through a wide range of Japanese industries. Japanese automobile as
well a large number of high-tech and green technology industries that use rare earth
elements (RE) felt the chill as China immediately threatened to restrict RE supply to
Japan. China wanted that the detained captain of the Chinese boat not is indicted in
Japan. Japan faced a dilemma about choosing between political pragmatism and
upholding its claim on the Senkaku islands. Eventually, Japan let the diplomatic
racket to calm down by releasing the Chinese captain; nonetheless, this served as
an eye opener for Japan. An ostensiblytrifling political rumpusmade apparent that
Japan cannot remain reliant for its RE supplies on China, then producing almost
97% of the world REs. This is situation untenable in the long run, as it compromises
the country’s strategic independence.
Japan, on the other hand, is one of the largerRE consumers in the world. A vast
majority of Japanese industries, like automobiles, computers, electronics, energy etc.
use REs for their basic manufacturing of high-tech products. Since the maritime
incident with China, there is a sense of urgency in Japan to diversify and strengthen
its RE supply chain. Then, Japan imported more than 80% of its REs from China.
Japan’s prime end-use applications of REs include polishing (20%), metal alloys
(18%), magnets (14%), and catalysts (12%).See Table I for RE applications. On the
other hand, 40% of China’s RE exports go to Japan.Tactically, it seems important to
engage in the development and acquisition of REs from both conventional as well as
new resources around the world. However, on a strategic level, Japan will need to
have a greater investment in RE R&D.Investment in RE R&D will promote
development of novel technologies to address three important areas i.e. greater
efficiencies in RE use, alternatives for REs, and recycling of REs.Last but not least,
the tactical and strategic policies thus required would not be possible without being
integrated into a proper policy framework that brings together private-public
partnership.
Table 1
REE
Cerium
Dysprosium
Erbium
Europium
Gadolinium
Holmium
Lanthanum
Lutetium
Neodymium
Praseodymium
Promethium
Samarium
Scandium
Terbium
Thulium
Ytterbium
Yttrium
Major Applications
Chemical oxidizing agent, polishing powder, glass and ceramics, catalyst for ovens, fluid catalytic crackers,ferrocerium flints
Rare-earth magnets, lasers, magnetostrictive alloys such as Terfenol-D
Infrared lasers, vanadium steel, fiber-optic technology
Red and blue phosphors, lasers, mercury-vapor lamps, fluorescent lamps, NMR relaxation agent
Computer memories, X-ray tubes, MRI contrast agent, magnets, high refractive index glass, lasers, neutron capture, NMR relaxation
agent, magnetostrictive alloys such as Galfenol, steel additive
Lasers, wavelength calibration standards for optical spectrophotometers, magnets
High refractive index and alkali-resistant glass, flint, hydrogen storage, battery-electrodes, camera lenses, fluid catalytic cracking catalyst
Positron emission tomography – PET scan detectors, high refractive index glass,lutetium tantalate hosts for phosphors
Rare-earth magnets, lasers, violet colors in glass and ceramics, didymium glass,ceramic capacitors
Rare-earth magnets, lasers, core material for carbon arc lighting, colorant inglasses and enamels, additive in didymium glass used in welding
goggles, ferrocerium firesteel (flint) products.
Nuclear batteries
Rare-earth magnets, lasers, neutron capture, masers
Alloys for aerospace components, metal-halide and mercury-vapor lamps, radioactive tracing agent
Green phosphors, lasers, fluorescent lamps, magnetostrictive alloys such as Terfenol-D
Portable X-ray machines, metal-halide lamps, lasers
Infrared lasers, chemical reducing agent, decoy flares, stainless steel, stress gauges, nuclear medicine
TV red phosphor, high-temperature superconductors, microwave filters, energy-efficient light bulbs, spark plugs, gas mantles, additive to steel
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
Literature
There are 17 rare earth elements (REs), 15 within the chemical group called
lanthanides, plus yttrium and scandium (Figure 1). The lanthanides consist of the
following: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium,
europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium,
and lutetium. Principal end uses for REs are for automobile catalysts and petroleum
refining catalysts, color television and flat panel displays (cell phones, portable DVDs,
and laptops), permanent magnets, and rechargeable batteries for hybrid and electric
vehicles, and many medical devices. REs are also needed for defense applications
such as jet fighter engines, missile guidance systems, antimissile defense systems,
and satellite and communication systems. Permanent magnets containing
neodymium, gadolinium, dysprosium, and terbium are used in numerous electrical
and electronic components, and in new-generation generators for wind turbines. In
this sense, for Japan, REs are crucial not only commercially, but also for its national
security. Under these circumstances, certainly Japan would find a dream value
attached to investing into REs. Otherwise its long-term commercial and national
security interests are at stake. REs’ uses for lasers, fiber optics, and medical
applications which include MRI contrast agents, PET scintillation detectors, medical
isotopes, and dental and surgical lasers is certainly going to rise in the coming days.
These are the industries where Japan has highly competitive technical advantage,
and secure RE supplies would be needed to ensure a smooth economic growth.
Mountain Pass, California, was the earliest place where REs were explored seriously
in 1953 by Molybdenum Corporation of America, producing the first mineral
concentrate, bastnaesite (Honan 2007). In China, in March 1986, Deng Xiaoping
approved the National High Technology Research and Development Program,
Program 863, meant to narrow the gap in technology especially in new materials
and is regarded as the most important step towards RE development (Wang Minggin
and Dou Xuehong 1996). RE mineral concentrates and intermediate compounds had
relatively steady price and production increases from the 1960s through the 1980s
(Castor 1994).
Despite a total annual production increase by as much as 300% since the early
1980s, the overall dollar value of the RE market has probably remained static or
even decreased (Hedrick 1999). Prices for REs were generally lower in the late
1990s and early 2000s than in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. The most expensive
RE being the heaviest—lutetium (Hedrick 1997) declined to a low of $2,400/kg in
2003.However, despite all these recent trends in prices and occasional oversupply of
REs, the future use of REs is to rise especially for Japan in automotive pollution
catalysts, FCCs, and permanent magnets (Hurst 2010).
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069
922069-86-3
Conventional mining and refining of REs
s is not very environmentally friendly, hence
recycling REs
s will certainly help keep environment a bit more cleanly,, if not entirely
clean (Mariano 1989a and Kingsnorth 2002). Professor Hiroshi Kitagawa of Kyoto
University and his team of researchers have artificially produced a metal similar to
palladium, a material commonly used in catalytic converters. Prof. Kitagawa used a
heating method to produce ultramicroscopic metal particles, ultimately mixing the
usually resistant rhodium and silver to create the palladium-like
palladium like metal (Finley 2011).
Similarly the work of Prof. Atsushi Muramatsu of Tohoku University and of Prof.
Yasushi Watanabe of National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and
Technology (AIST) is also something to be seen with interest. According to Akihiro
Ohata of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), “government
intends to develop
evelop within a year an alternative to the use of cerium as an abrasive for
polishing glass hard disks (2010).
Rare Earth Strategy
Investment in REs
s has long been left out by most developed countries including
Japan just because of economic non-viability.
non viability. Drilling, mining, and refining of REs
have never been very lucrative investment at the outset; the output of REs is too
small and refining effort too tedious. Consequently, countries like US and Japan did
not invest much in R&D of REs.
RE On the other hand, China was able to produce and
supply needed REs
s at much cheaper prices due to a deliberate policy adopted at the
highest national level. China seems to have realized early-on
on the importance and
dream value of REs.. Hence, we are in a predicament that
that seems threatening the
commercial and national security of Japan whose
who industries use a lot of REs and
produces almost none.
However, if we can consider the dream value involved i.e. commercial and national
self-sufficiency
sufficiency attached to the R&D into REs,, we can easily make a case for
investing into it. The finamatics approach
h to capture dream value that was introduced
by the author (Jehan 2008) would go a long way in helping to lay down a private
privatepublic RE related R&D investment policy framework needed at
at the moment in Japan.
The RE investment model that is presented later in this paper makes use of
finamatics approach to capture all RE value components including dream value
thereof.
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
In the light of above-stated, it is imperative bringing together all-important tactical,
strategic, and policy initiatives required to ensure a sustainable supply of REs for
Japanese industries that are vital to its economic growth. The possible course of
action seems to carry out a detailed analysis of the current RE situation in Japan, the
present REs acquisition models in Japanese industry, the state of public policies,
and the possibility of a public-private partnership in RE R&D. Further, we needto
analyze usage efficiency, alternatives and recycling possibilities in a private-public
partnership framework. An investment model that will allow capturing dream value
attached to the concept of self-sufficiency in REs, leading to commercial and national
security of the nation will beneeded to encourage greater investment in REs, both
tactically and strategically.
The minimum policy and strategic components required to work out a working model
for RE supplies for Japan can be described as:






A complete shift and description of RE policies in Japan
Revision and statement of RE usage efficiency standards; as with rising RE
prices, question of improving usage efficiency becomes important
Development of alternatives to REswill have to be intensified
The economics of recyclingand policy arrangements needed for efficient and
environmental friendly recycling
Public private partnership in all RE development, usage and recycling
A model to combine policy and strategic action
The revision and restatement of above-stated measures will ensure that Japan and
her industries can reach a sustainable and self-sufficient RE supply chain.
REs Strategic Shift
A detailed assessment and redesigning of the present RE acquisition and usage
practices in Japan will have a positive impact on both the demand and supply side of
the RE realm. As it appears that Japanuntil recently had no official RE related
policies and legislation that would ensure a stable and sustainable supply of RE for
its industry. The field was largely left in large measure to the businesses that were
RE users. More recently, however, Japanese government seems to have realized
the importance of laying out medium and long term policy measures to address the
issue. These policy measures largely hinge on
(1) Alternative supply sources and
(2) Decreasing dependency on REs by developing alternative materials.
Still this is a major breakthrough in a strategic sense, as it can have long term effect
upon both on the demand as well as supply side of REs for Japan. It is important that
REs demand and supply sideshave been given an official policy review and long
term policy alternatives have been laid out. Further, itwill be important to carefully
designa business model integrated with policy framework that can allow for a privatepublic partnership in R&D of the REs.The integrated business model should allow
incorporatingindustrial usage efficiency, global and local alternative development
scenarios and finally an investment model, allowing for capturing the dream-value
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069
922069-86-3
associated with achieving REself-sufficiency
RE
for Japan. This policy initiative has
already shown a shift in the demand for REs
s in Japan as we look at the projected
demand for REs in 2016. (Table
able 2)
Now as we understandpolicies
policies (or lack thereof) and practices to understand the
process of growth, demise, and then a concentrated growth process of REs from
early on to this time,, we can move on towards pointing out a way forward. Empirical
review of the relevant data helps us to ascertain the desirability and impact of
policies upon the industry’s practices and business models. We have also now
understood thecauses
causes of atrophy or disconcert in and policy directed effort in Japan
to promote the
e exploration of such a key industrial
industri resource. What could have been
amiss in this regard, not only in Japan but also worldwide?Policy
Policy framework should
accommodate tactical as well as strategic necessities, in order to incubate and
nurture a self-sustaining rare--earths supply industry in Japan.
On a practical side, a geo-spatial
spatial assessment of research and development activities
needs to be carried out in various research laboratories in universities and at
businesses around the nation. In addition to developing alternative materials, efforts
are required to diversifyREsupply sources. Presently, companies like Toshiba,
Toshiba Sojitz
and Sumitomo have propelled rare-earth joint projects in Kazakhstan. Japan shall
attempt to register as many alternative materials as well as source development
attempts as are out there by this stage of the paper. REs
s recycling regime has been
added as one important element of the Japanese
Japanese public policy on this issue
issue. The
paper proposes to incorporate recycling as an integral component of investment
model, in addition to being a part of the overall RE policy initiatives.
After having explained the tactical
tactic and strategic and policy alternatives that will
ensure sustainable and smooth supply of REs for Japanese industries,next
welaydown RE R&D investment model capable of incorporating all value
components. The model will be using the finamatics approach laid out in my earlier
work on capturing the dream value for R&D investment. This approach, though
reliable in capturing innovative potential of R&D investment, will be applied for the
first time into capturing the dream value of a policy related outcome. Assigning
dream weight and capturing
uring all the dream value components will be an important
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
part of the model. Using neural network-based finamatics investment evaluation
model (Jehan 2011), we shall be able to further eliminate the uncertainty inherent in
such an investment. We should, however, not underestimate the importance of right
type and amount of data required to apply the proposed investment model.
The model is capable of taking into consideration three key areas of RE strategy that
will be important to allow a sustainable self-sufficient state of RE supply for Japan.
Those three key areas are;



RE usage efficiency,
RE alternatives development, and
Recycling of REs
Finally, we move to lay down the proposed model in the next section with all its nuts
and bolts attached.
New RE Development Model
It should by now be abundantly clear that we propose in this paper is to stress the
need of continued investment into the R&D of REand renewed development,
alternative supply sources, alternative material development and usage efficiency
and recycling of REs. The RE development model laid down here (Figure 2)
integrates RE R&D with alternate material and alternative supply source. The model
makes use of Neural Network approachto understand impact of alternative policy
scenarios upon the RE growth and development paths. With this approach, we
suggest that continued investment into RE R&D will move the production possibility
vector (PPV) from PPVo to PPV1. This initial shifting of PPV from PPVo to PPV1 will
open up two possibilities i.e.
(a) decrease in RE development uncertainties (UcSp ) from H to L
i.e.
Reduction in UcSp= UcSp (H) -UcSp (L)
(b) open up the possibility of harvesting Dream Value associated with ensuing
self-sufficiency that will arise from the increased RE development and
sustainable alternatives come into industrial use.
i.e.
Dream Value = (αβ x αT2) x ½
& New RE production level will be
RE Production (PPV1) = (P1P2 x α P2) – (P1T1 x βT1) x 1/2
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069
922069-86-3
Adding Dream Value
Total Benefits of New Strategy = RE Production (PPV1) + Dream Value
OR
= (P1P2 x α P2) – (P1T1 x βT1) x ½ + (αβ x αT2) x ½
Also, as
(αβ x αT2) x ½ > (P1T1 x βT1) x ½
Hence, we can conclude that both PPV1 production quantum gain and net gain from
strategic shift is positive, so it will be gainful to move ahead with the strategic change
in the RE policy for Japan.
Technological rate of change throughout the product development proce
process is akin to
the situation in which various bodies move around and change their position with or
without some external force being applied through time and space. The Model here
seeks to predict the R&D progression as Japan is striving for a certain REproduction
RE
locale or production possibility tangent namely the dream point where it can develop
and create a RE dream value (PD). We call it RE dream value because, if Japan is
able to reach that RE development and production level, it carries a dream value.
The dream value is the commercial value or the commercial value differential that
Japan is willing to forego in terms of present production and supply possibilities in
favor of future production and supply levels. PPV1 places Japan significantly ahead
in strategic terms and its RE self-sufficiency
sufficiency is established for a fairly long period of
time.
In order to reach the P2 locale, the rare earth R&D process would require a certain
magnitude ofenergy – we call it finatic energy (policies, strategies and actions)
actions), total
1
of which should always be positive . At this point, Neural networks will be handy in
1Finatic
Energy is the financial equivalent of human or physical kinetic energy used in acquiring a desired displacement across time
and space. In this paper we use the term Finatic to represent the financial, policy and strategic efforts put together; and
andfinatic energy
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069
922069-86-3
order to understand the complexity of the R&D process and various outcomes that it
may bring to fore.. For Japan, th
the requiredfinatic energy is analogous to the sum total
of funds and efforts laid out for the development of P2 instead of P1 (Figure 2) and
the consequent payoff from the development process. P1 embodies a redundant
production locale which does not lead to a significant improvement over the existing
products. Only a break from current policies (or no policy situation) can lead to allow
enough finatic energy to break from current inertia and gain sufficient momentum to
move from PPV0 to PPV1. Initially PPV takes a downwards shift to allow a greater
push towards future development by a surge in fanatic energy in order to tap
production possibilities scenarios. Without a downwards shift, the PPV0 will move
into no production possibilities arena, though there will be less uncertainty. But at the
same time there will be no dream product to be had. For our purpose we are going to
call all the force spent and non-cash
non cash payoffs (dream position, uncertainty residual
and adaptive learning) collectively as Finatic Energy (Fin En). Once desired
production locale is materialized, payoffs can be evaluated at an appropriated
discount rate. The holistic and innovative approach that is based upon financial
kinematics will be called Finamatics in this paper.2 For an ongoing R&D Process, it is
not easy to calculate all relevant cash flows with certainty; hence we resort to Neural
Finamatics approach that allows precise estimation and consideration of cash as
well as non-cash
cash payoffs like technical learning (TL),
( ), the magnitude of uncertainty
spread (UcSp)3 and dream value (DV)4.
is the total R&D efforts and spending at all used over a period of time to move production possibilities from P0 to P1 by allowing PPV
(Production Possibilities Vector) to shift from PPV0 to PPV1.
2 Application of Finamatics to product development scenarios
scenarios (PDS) can be of great help. Finamatics is the kinematics replicated for
financials involved in PDS. PDS involves moving from a current situation (P0) to a desirable situation i.e. being able to dev
develop dream
product (PD). This requires displacement (d)
( of PDS through time (t)) and space. The finatic energy involved would allow
displacement from P0 to PD. Basic kinematics can be applied to ascertain d, the directional speed i.e. velocity (v)) and time required
to achieve that desired displacement. Displacement
Displacem
(d) can be calculated as:
The directional speed i.e. velocity or the rate of R&D (accompanied by decreasing uncertainty and increasing technical learni
learning) can
be ascertained as:
The time needed to achieve that level of ∆ PDS can be ascertained as follows:
However if the initial velocity is zero, i.e. the firm is originally at PPVD, instead of PPV0, then time required to achieve that level of ∆
PDS will be simplified as follows:
Here, acceleration (a) is:
3UcSp can be measured in different ways for different business e.g. software and system developers assign a certain value to each
code/codec in system development process. Successful development of successive codes/codec is measured in terms of reduced
uncertainty magnitude towards end product
duct development stage,
stage in this case REs.. Each product development process will have to
define its own product development milestones and will have to assign them an appropriate process value.
4 Dream Value is present value of a future expected (or sometimes
sometimes unexpected) value that needs to be captured to allow RE policy
refinement and R&D investment.. Sometimes DV can be cashed at present by abandoning in favor of a rival business working on
similar product or product line. In that case as the negotiated value would be captured at present not in future, so it is important to
deal DV as a separate value in the PVRD model. If DV is to be cashed in future, then obviously it can easily be discounted at an
appropriate required rate of return. In that case the model
model would be easily adjustable to allow time value discounting of the DV.
Same is the case for AL and uncertain outcomes represented by α.
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
Conclusion
In this paper we carried out a quick round up of the RE demand and supply situation
for Japan. It is stressed that while REs are important resource for Japanese high
tech and green technology based companies, the country as a whole has shown lack
of earnest efforts in a coordinated fashion to promote sustainable and self-sufficient
path to the supply thereof. This has resulted in putting the RE user industry of Japan
in a tight spot and endangered economic and strategic interests of the industry and
those of the country in general. The path to the self-sufficiency and sustainability
resides on immediate and concrete steps in the policy and strategy areas. The
recipe would include alternate sourcing, alternate material development, usage
efficiency and recycling of REs. While some policy measures have been adopted
recently by Japanese government, after a row with China over the Senkaku Island
issue, there is still a wide chasm that needs to be bridged between the policy and
strategic action. We propose that a serious effort would be needed to coordinate and
align them in a PPP arrangement. In a PPP arrangement government can work as
catalyst to highlight the demand-supply scenarios and provide policy support to the
businesses who would be ultimate users of the crucial resource. However, the
businesses wouldn’t engage whole heartedly without active R&D into the area with
an acceptable and viable investment model that can bring out the true value of the
investment in REs. We proposed an RE Investment model in this paper that is
capable of bringing the policy and strategic outcomes together in one place. The
model spells out the financial as well as nonfinancial value of the investment into
REs and hence should appeal to the suspecting minds as to underline the
significance of investment into this area of industrial material supply without which
the dream of a sustainable and self-sufficient supply chain of REs cannot be ensured
for the country. The model spells that using a finatic energy that is sum total of policy
and strategic measures will allow the country to take a RE production possibility
vector that takes an initial hit, but it allows a lateral higher RE production and
procurement locale to be attained. The dream value inherent in the model allows the
country to acquire a sustainable and self-sufficient supply chain of REs.
References
1. Anthony N. Mariano, “Economic geology of rare earth elements”, Reviews in
Mineralogy and Geochemistry , January 1989, v. 21, p. 309-337
2. C. Hurst, “China‫׳‬s Rare Earth Elements Industry: What Can the West
Learn?”Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, Washington DC (2010)
3. Clarence, N.W. Tan, (2004), “An Artificial Neural Networks Primer with Financial
Application Examples in Financial Distress Predictions and Foreign Exchange
Hybrid Trading System”, Published on Internet、URL:http://w3.to/ctan
4. Dixit, A and Pindyck, R., "Investment under Uncertainty", Princeton University
Press, 1994.
5. D.J. Kingsnorth, An Overview of the Rare Earths Market, IMCOA, Kingaroy Qld
(2010)
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
6. Eymen E., Sadowsky J., 2005, “Valuing Pilot Project Investments in Incomplete
Markets: A Compound Option Approach”, Computing in Economics and Finance
No 73,Society for Computational Economics
7. Finley, Bruce. “Colorado Part of ‘New Gold Rush’ for Rare-Earth Metals.” Denver
Post,
January 16, 2011. www.denverpost.com/search/ci_17109238.
8. Grossman G. and Shapiro C., 1986 "Optimal Dynamic R&D Programs", Rand
Journal of Economics, Vol. 17: 581-593.
9. James B. Hedrick, “Rare-earth Metal Prices in the USA ca. 1960 to 1994,”
Journal of Alloys and Compounds, 250, (1997): 471
10. James B. Hedrick, “Rare Earths in Selected U.S. Defence Applications,” Paper
presented at the 40th Forum on the Geology of Industrial Minerals, Bloomington,
Indiana, May 2-7, 2004.
11. Jehan, S.N., Khan, M.T.A., Jehan, S.Q., (2008)"Finamatics & Innovation in
Product Development Designs Of Technology Companies”, RCAPS Journal
12. Jehan, S.N., Jehan,S. Q., 2008, “Accounting for Uncertainty and Dream Value
of Technological R & D” , AAA Northeast Region Meeting
13. Lucas R. E. Jr., "Optimal Management of a Research and Development Project",
Management Science, Vol 17 No 11 679-697, 1971.
14. Messica A. and David I., "Optimal expenditure patterns for risky R&D projects
with time dependent returns", R&D Management, vol. 30 No. 3 247-253, 2000.
15. Pindyck R. S., "Investments of Uncertain Cost", Journal of Financial Economics
34, 53-76, 1993.
16. S.B. Castor, J.B. Hedrick, “Rare Earth Elements. Industrial Minerals Volume”,(7th
ed.)Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration, Littleton, CO (2006), pp.
769–792
17. Scott Honan, Mountain Pass Mine presentation,” Mountain Pass, Ca, 8 July
2008; and Harold Hough, “Domestic Mining – Mountain Pass Mine Reopens,”
Miners News, 2007
18. Wang Minnin and Dou Xuehong, The History of China’s Rare Earth Industry. ed.
C.H.Evans, “Episodes from the History of the Rare Earth Elements,”
(Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996), 131-147.
19. Zahedi, F., Intelligent Systems for Business: Expert Systems with Neural
Networks, Wadsworth Publishing Company, Belmont, USA, pp. 10-11, 1993
Additional Readings
1. Almeida, (2002) Predictive non-linear modeling of complex data by artificial
neural networks. Current Opinion in Biotechnology, Volume 13, Issue 1, 1
February 2002, Pages 72-76
2. Clarence, N.W. Tan, (2004), “An Artificial Neural Networks Primer with Financial
Application Examples in Financial Distress Predictions and Foreign Exchange
Hybrid Trading System”, Published on Internet、URL:http://w3.to/ctan
3. Colin, A. M., “Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms for Exchange Rate
Forecasting”, Proceedings of International Joint Conference on Neural Networks,
Beijing, China, November 1-5, 1992, 1992
4. Eymen E., Sadowsky J., 2005, “Valuing Pilot Project Investments in Incomplete
Markets: A Compound Option Approach”, Computing in Economics and Finance
No 73,Society for Computational Economics
Proceedings of Annual Switzerland Business Research Conference
12 - 13 October 2015, Novotel Geneva Centre, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN:
978-1-922069-86-3
5. Faltings, B., "Qualitative kinematics in mechanisms", Artificial Intelligence 44
(1990) 89–120
6. Fama, Eugene F. and Kenneth R. French, 1998. Value versus growth: The
international evidence, Journal of Finance.
7. Goldman, RM. (1996) Mathematical Methods for Neural Network Analysis and
Design. MIT Press. ISBN: 0262071746
8. Hsieh, C., “Some Potential Applications of Artificial Neural Systems in Financial
Management”, Journal of Systems Management, v.44 n4, p12(4), April 1993
9. Kaslow, T.W. and Pindyck, R.S. (1994) "Valuing Flexibility in Utility Planning,"
The Electricity Journal, March, 60-65.
10. Medsker, L., Turban, E. and R. Trippi, “Neural Network Fundamentals for
Financial Analysts”, Neural Networks in Finance and Investing edited by Trippi
and Turban, Irwin, USA, Chapter 1, pp. 329-365, ISBN 1-55738-919-6, 1996.
11. Sacks, E. and Joskowicz, L., "Model-based kinematics simulation", Proceedings
of the ASME, 1992.