4/13/2012
Demographics and what it means for you
Population dynamics in rural Kansas
On today’s menu
Basic demography and long term
population trends in KS
 Aging in place
 Immigration issues
 A few words on what to do

László J. Kulcsár
Kansas State University
K-State Research and Extension Spring Action Conference
April 10, 2012, Salina, KS
Demography basics

Three ways how populations can change
◦ Fertility
◦ Mortality
◦ Migration

Three formal research areas
◦ Population size (growth, decline)
◦ Population composition (race, age, sex etc.)
◦ Population distribution (migration, urbanization)
The demographic landscape

“Demography is destiny”
◦ Demographic trends are complex and seldom change
overnight
◦ Sorry, no easy fixes!

Kansas trends
◦
◦
◦
◦
Slow population growth
Urban expansion
Some population diversity
Spatially uneven immigration
 High in certain locations, nonexistent in others
◦ Aging
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The demographic landscape

These trends fit to the general changes
occurring in the US (and even globally)
◦ There is really not much special about Kansas

Most of these trends are not new and could
have been predicted decades ago
◦ The exception is immigration, which is policy-driven
at the federal level and business-driven at the local
level
 States also meddle into immigration, usually making things
much worse
Population of Kansas, 1900-2010
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population growth (since last census, %)
25
20
Population distribution in Kansas
(2003 definitions)
3,000,000
KS
US
2,500,000
15
2,000,000
10
1,500,000
5
1,000,000
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5
rural
micro
metro
500,000
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
-10
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Population distribution in Kansas
(2003 definitions)
80%
Metro
350
Rural
Rural
60%
250
Micro
50%
200
40%
30%
150
Metro
20%
100
10%
1900
Micro
300
70%
0%
(1900=100%)
400
100%
90%
Percent population change
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Long term population decline



Two-thirds of KS counties had their population peak in
1930 or before
One-third of KS counties had negative net migration in
every decade since 1950
Only nine counties had population growth above the
national average between 2000 and 2010
◦ 19 others grew some, the rest declined

Only three rural counties grew more than 1% since
2000 (Stevens, Dickinson, Gray)
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Projected % population change until
2030
30
The links to aging

25
20

15
◦ Primary ages are 20-35 (and subsequently 0-5)
◦ Migration alone can cause aging in place
10
5
0
-5
Population decline occurs mostly because of
negative migration trends
Migration is age-selective
metro
micro
rural

-10
This is exacerbated by the effect of the national
age transition (the Baby Boom retirement)
-15
18 counties will see more
than 40% decline, two
(Jewel, Ness) will see more
than 50%.
-20
-25
-30
Distribution of the Elderly: 2000
Median age
Percentage of Persons 85 Years and Older
45
43
41
Metro
Micro
Rural
39
37
35
33
31
29
0 %- 1.14%
1.15% - 1.81%
1.82% - 2.52%
2.53% - 3.52%
3.53% - 6.64%
27
25
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
North Dakota State Data Center
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Kansas
Seward
Population of Smith County
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Rice
Rawlins
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kansas County Historical Dataset
Source: CensusScope
Projecting aging [2000]

Age structure, Smith County, 2000
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64

55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44

35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
Projecting aging [2030]
Disclaimer: county-level
projections are risky and
inaccurate, so see this only as
a trend indication or a
theoretical exercise
Age structure, Smith County, 2030
-100
-50
Disclaimer: county-level
projections are risky and
inaccurate, so see this only as
a trend indication or a
theoretical exercise

Conservative assumptions on
fertility and mortality (keep
the 2000 level)

Migration assumption: the
1990-2000 trend will
continue, no “shock event”
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Conservative assumptions on
fertility and mortality (keep
the 2000 level)
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
Migration assumption: the
1990-2000 trend will
continue, no “shock event”
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
-150

85+
15-19
-200
2030
10-14
5-9
female
0-4
male
0
50
100
150
5-9
female
male
0-4
200
-200
Kansas Population Center
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Kansas Population Center
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International migration
The vicious cycle

Population
loss

Loss of
services
◦ A response to push and pull factors
◦ Facilitated by social networks
◦ Influenced by policies and institutions
Loss of
consumers

Loss of
revenues
International migration is connected to
globalization and uneven development patterns
It has three major dynamics:
About 13% of the US population is foreign born
◦ This is ~40 million people (of which 17.5 million is
naturalized)
Loss of
businesses
Number of immigrants, 1850-2010
(LPRs, thousands)
12000
10299
10000
9095
8795
8000
7338
6000
5736
5247
2598
2315
4493
4107
3688
4000
3322
2812
2515
2000
528
1035
s
s
00
20
s
s
80
s
70
s
60
s
50
s
40
s
30
90
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
s
s
10
20
19
19
s
s
90
00
19
18
s
s
70
60
80
18
18
18
18
50
s
0
Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2010
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Foreign born in Kansas



Foreign born population grew from 63,000 in
1990 to 165,000 by the late 2000s (2005-09
ACS)
56% of the KS foreign born are from Latin
America, 28% from Asia, 9% from Europe
33% of the KS foreign born are citizens (43% at
the national level)
◦ Recent Hispanic immigrants are less likely to be
citizens


4 to 5 thousand green cards are given to KS
residents each year
FB population in KS is spatially concentrated
Immigrant integration

We cannot expect immigration (or
immigrants) to go away
◦ Emphasis should be on integration using policies,
incentives and common sense

Immigrant integration depends on both the
national and local contexts
◦ The national context provides the grand
discourse that shapes opinions and perspectives
◦ The local context provides the conditions that
determine the success of integration
Percent foreign-born
35.0
32.6
30.0
28.4
1990
2000
2010
25.2
25.0
22.5
20.7
20.0
15.0
9.8
10.0
5.0
1980
28.0
10.8
3.8
12.9
11.1
12.2
3.6
1.4
5.0
6.5
6.2
7.9
2.02.5
0.0
Garden
City
Dodge City
Liberal
KS
US
Policy considerations


Immigration is driven by broad social and
economic currents that are mostly outside of
governmental control
Policy mistakes
◦ If the discourse on immigration is contaminated by
partisan political agendas then failure is guaranteed
◦ A policy largely based on law enforcement (border or
workplace) will never be successful because it misses
the underlying reasons why people move
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Illegal immigration

Illegal immigration is driven by the same forces
as legal immigration

What makes it illegal is the flawed policy regime
◦ The invisible hand of supply and demand
◦ Broken guest worker program
◦ Self-perpetuating border enforcement interests
◦ A public discourse contaminated by fear-mongering
which mixes up immigration with terrorism and
national security
So what does this mean for you?
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
What can be done?

These are just
demographic
trends…

◦ Communities are different and even if the challenges
are similar, the solutions may not be so

What makes them a
problem is insufficient
community capacity!
Understand how demography works and what
is its impact on human resources
One size never fits all
Only one silver bullet
◦ Build local capacity so that localities could come up
with solutions by themselves
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
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What can be done?

Pay attention to all factors
influencing population
trends, first of all
migration
Conclusions
?

The demographic trends of Kansas are clear and we
should not act surprised in 2020

Local demographic trends (including aging) are
increasingly determined by migration patterns
Rational planning should address
◦ Remember: nothing changes overnight


◦ How the Baby Boom moves through the lifecourse
Be realistic: time
cannot be turned
back
◦ The state and local health service needs of old Kansans
◦ The spatially selective growth of foreign born population
◦ How to provide opportunities for people to keep them from
moving away

Local capacity is the key for most challenges
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