IPTV market trends Noel Matthews – TANDBERGTV ITU-T International Telecommunication Union

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ITU-T

International Telecommunication Union

International Multimedia Telecommunications Consortium

Noel Matthews – TANDBERGTV

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

TV over last 10 years

ITU-T o o o

Increase in digital TV platforms

• 1995 = 5

• 2000 = 100

• 2005 = 230

160

140

120

100

STB prices decreased

• 1995 = $300+

• 2005 = $50-

Worldwide adoption of digital standards

• DVB and ATSC

80

60

40

20

0

1995 2004

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

Subs

2

ITU-T

Continuous changes

Consumed

ƒ Digital TV growing and replacing analog

ƒ Time shifted viewing goes mainstream

(VOD & PVR)

ƒ Interactivity spreading based on a proven business model

Acquired and delivered

ƒ Produce once, deliver many

ƒ IP everywhere!

ƒ Driving new delivery models for contribution and DTH delivery

ƒ HDTV spreading worldwide

Monetized

ƒ New revenue models exploit new technology & changing viewer habits

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

3

High Definition TV

ITU-T o HD is already a mass market in the USA

• 15M HDTV Broadcast Viewers by the end of 2005 – MPEG2

• HD cable boxes up 170% in 2005

• Direct TV = 1,650 channels by

2007 – H.264

o APAC is already there

• Australia and Japan

• PCCW launching HD over DSL

60

50

40

Millions

Viewers

30

20

10

0 o

Global HDTV Viewers

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

H.264 HD services happening in

Europe

• 14m HD homes receiving HDTV by 2009

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

Source: In-Stat Mar 05

4

On demand content

ITU-T o o

Digital VoD Growth

10% of today’s television is time shifted

• 2010 – 50% of television will be viewed on the PVR

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

47

43

7

39

4

36

4

33

3

30

2

35

27

3

38

24

2

42

21

2

45

20

0

49

-

17

52

12 27

31

10

23

17

7

-

Video on demand will drive cable and IPTV growth

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

• Comcast on

Demand:

— 2003: 1,400 titles with

21M views/month

— 2005: 3,400 titles with

107M views/month

— 2007: 50,000+ titles!

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

Digital: VoD Digital: non-VoD Non-digital

5

Interactive Television o o

Service providers need to differentiate

US Operator Revenues from Interactive Services

Interactive allows delivery of specific content FOR the consumer

• No longer just the push model of broadcast TV

• Logical extension of on demand content

Interactive is the future of

Television

• Red button applications in

UK

• Over 20,000 hours of iTV in

USA last year

$m

$1,000m

$800m

$600m

$400m

$200m

$0m

Year

2005

$34m

2006

$102m

2007

$233m

2008

$452m

2009

$780m

Source : Kagan 2005

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

6

Broadband TV

ITU-T o o

Broadband networks allow delivery of TV directly to the home

• Direct connection between the content owner and the consumer

• No platform operator!

• Forrester estimating 2006 broadband TV advertising revenues of $200 M o Already there

• SKY movies

• MTV Overdrive

• VH1 VSpot,

• Nickelodeon,

• CNN Pipeline

• Comedy Central,

• Country Music

Television),

• ESPN,

MTV Overdrive broadband site delivered 13 million video streams from the Video Music

Awards, during or after the show ran on cable networks.

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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Mobile video

ITU-T o o o o

Mobile will have a significant impact on the TV industry

• For both the creation and delivery of content

2005 market for mobile content was £600m

By 2008 there will be 10.8 million mobile video users

• 2004 revenue $29M

• 2008 revenue $1.4B

O2 UK trial

• 3 hours per week average and 23 minutes per viewing session

• 36% used it at home!

Mobile Video Users

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

2004 2006 2008

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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IPTV

ITU-T o o

Telcos, ISPs and utility companies are engaging in IPTV

• Defensive strategies

2005 - Real success stories

• Imaginio (Telefonica Spain)

• Jazztelia TV (Jazztel)

• Belgacom (Belgacom)

• Fastweb TV (Fastweb)

• MaLigneTV (France Telecom)

• Lyse Bredbånd TV (Lyse)

• NOW Broadband TV (PCCW)

• Dubai Internet City (Dubai)

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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European IPTV market

ITU-T o o

700k subscribers by end of 2005

• France = 281,000

(Free + Maligne)

• Italy = 190,000

(Fastweb)

• Spain = 58,000

IPTV penetration

• Norway = 1.5%

• France = 1.1%

• Italy = 0.86% o Forecast = 9m by end of 2009

• France = 2.4m

• Italy = 1.5m

• UK = 1m

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

10

ITU-T

European IPTV launches

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

11

European IPTV Subscriber Growth

ITU-T

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: External research Nov’05

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12

Market Trends by Region

ITU-T

Total IPTV Households

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Europe

US

Asia

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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ITU-T

IPTV reality - 2005

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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IPTV market offerings

ITU-T o o o o

H.264 is the key enabling technology for DSL

• SD = 1.5 Mbit/s

• HD = 6 – 8 Mbit/s

• Hybrid TV services

But “me2TV” is not enough

• Very competitive market

• Telcos need to capitalise on inherent 2-way

IP network

Content on demand – including video

• Everything is an asset

• On demand and push models

Enhanced TV experience

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

15

ITU-T

IPTV service offering

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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Challenges for IPTV

ITU-T o Network

• Improved access technologies for higher rate

DSL

• True end to end QoS – in to the home network

• Intelligent network resource allocation

(BRAS) o IPTV Service provision

• Picture quality on DSL (Advanced video coding)

• Advanced “Content on demand” services

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

(Network PVR) 17

AVC – bit rates for HD and SD

ITU-T

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

SD

HD for Europe?

720p50

High end HD broadcast

1080i30 (1920 pixels)

8.0

2,000+ channels

AVC delivered!

2.0

4.0

Resolution

6.0

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

MPEG-2

Media™ 9

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Challenges - VoD and advertising

ITU-T o o o o o

IPTV operators must run Ondemand services

On demand changes the revenue model

• Linear advertising no longer works

Dynamic on demand ad insertion enables revenue generation

• For free and premium content.

As VoD volumes build so does the attractiveness to the advertising world

Targeting on demographic/geographic basis now possible

• Particularly in an IP network

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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Intelligent Ad Placement Decisions

ITU-T

Media Types

• iTV

• DVR

• RFI

Tech

Info

Long Form Ads

Neighborhood

Tagging

Targeting Engines

• Geographic

• Demographic

• Psychographic

Tag Information

• Local Dealers

• Proximity Mapping

Site

Info Placement

Decisions

Dynamic

Streams

Placement Rules

• Genre/Type

• Avail Rules

• Brand Associations

Title

Info

DVR Ad placement

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 iTV

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ITU-T

VOD/DVR Ad Placement architecture

Program

Asset

Delivery

Avail-Enabled

Program

Assets

Internet Push

Delivery

Satellite

Push

Delivery

Ad Assets

Avail-Enabled

Program

Assets

Inventory

& Delivery

Schedule

Internet

Pull

Ad Assets

Ad

Assets

Campaign Delivery

Asset Avail

List

Placement

Rules

Reporting

As Run Log

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

Real-Time

Placement

Messages

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ITU-T

On demand content in the network o o o o o o

Open architecture for greater flexibility

Distributed architecture across the network

Content encrypted throughout the entire network

Content ingest process must be streamlined

Produce once, know where it is and deliver many time!

Timeshift TV brings technical and legal challenges!

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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Multi platform delivery

ITU-T o o o o o o

Consumers will expect content delivery to a range of devices

Platform operators want common infrastructure

Many challenges

Technical:

• Format for many devices

• Content work flow and storage for multiple formats

Production:

• Content does not look the same on different devices

• Wide screen shots

• Contrast ratios

Role of standards?

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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Open standards

ITU-T o Digital TV’s success is directly related to open standards o Core to the success of IPTV is non-proprietary, standard based delivery architecture

• Published, open APIs

• no vendor lock-in o In particular:

• Open interfaces/API for content management

• International Metadata standards for IPTV and cable

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“

San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

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ITU-T

Summary o The future is not just delivery of content to the viewer but for the consumer

• When, what and where the consumer wants it o Revenue models will change

• VoD vs linear

• There will be winners and losers o IPTV is happening and will become an important player in the content delivery market

• But not just “me2tv”

• Build flexible networks and

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“ play to their strengths

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