ICES Journal of Marine Science ICES Journal of Marine Science (2016), 73(3), 582– 595. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsu231 Contribution to Special Issue: ‘Towards a Broader Perspective on Ocean Acidification Research’ Original Article Jonathan C. P. Reum 1*‡, Simone R. Alin 2, Chris J. Harvey1, Nina Bednaršek2, Wiley Evans 2,3, Richard A. Feely 2, Burke Hales 4, Noelle Lucey5, Jeremy T. Mathis 2,3, Paul McElhany 1, Jan Newton6, and Christopher L. Sabine 2 1 Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E, Seattle, WA 98112, USA 2 Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA 3 Ocean Acidification Research Center, School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 245 O’Neill Bldg, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA 4 College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA 5 Marine Environment and Sustainable Development Unit ENEA, PO Box 224, La Spezia, Italy 6 Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98105, USA *Corresponding author: tel: +1 206 860 3204; fax: +1 206 860 3217; e-mail: jonathan.reum@noaa.gov Present address: Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, Box 355640, Seattle, WA, USA ‡ Reum, J. C. P., Alin, S. R., Harvey, C. J., Bednaršek, N., Evans, W., Feely, R. A., Hales, B., Lucey, N., Mathis, J. T., McElhany, P., Newton, J., and Sabine, C. L. Interpretation and design of ocean acidification experiments in upwelling systems in the context of carbonate chemistry co-variation with temperature and oxygen. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 582 –595. Received 22 July 2014; revised 24 November 2014; accepted 26 November 2014; advance access publication 7 January 2015. Coastal upwelling regimes are some of the most productive ecosystems in the ocean but are also among the most vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to naturally high background concentrations of CO2. Yet our ability to predict how these ecosystems will respond to additional CO2 resulting from anthropogenic emissions is poor. To help address this uncertainty, researchers perform manipulative experiments where biological responses are evaluated across different CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) levels. In upwelling systems, however, contemporary carbonate chemistry variability remains only partly characterized and patterns of co-variation with other biologically important variables such as temperature and oxygen are just beginning to be explored in the context of OA experimental design. If co-variation among variables is prevalent, researchers risk performing OA experiments with control conditions that are not experienced by the focal species, potentially diminishing the ecological relevance of the experiment. Here, we synthesized a large carbonate chemistry dataset that consists of carbonate chemistry, temperature, and oxygen measurements from multiple moorings and ship-based sampling campaigns from the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), and includes fjord and tidal estuaries and open coastal waters. We evaluated patterns of pCO2 variability and highlight important co-variation between pCO2, temperature, and oxygen. We subsequently compared environmental pCO2 – temperature measurements with conditions maintained in OA experiments that used organisms from the CCE. By drawing such comparisons, researchers can gain insight into the ecological relevance of previously published OA experiments, but also identify species or life history stages that may already be influenced by contemporary carbonate chemistry conditions. We illustrate the implications co-variation among environmental variables can have for the interpretation of OA experimental results and suggest an approach for designing experiments with pCO2 levels that better reflect OA hypotheses while simultaneously recognizing natural co-variation with other biologically relevant variables. Keywords: California Current, climate change, hypoxia, multistressor experiment, pH. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US. Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Interpretation and design of ocean acidification experiments in upwelling systems in the context of carbonate chemistry co-variation with temperature and oxygen Ocean acidification and experimental design Introduction conditions may also naturally co-vary with other biologically relevant variables including temperature and O2 over multiple spatial and temporal scales (Reum et al., 2014). This may have important implications for the design and interpretation of ocean acidification (OA) experiments because of the potential for non-additive interactions between carbonate chemistry, temperature, and O2 on organismal performance and ecological interactions (Wernberg et al., 2012, Harvey et al., 2013; Koch et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013). For many organisms, aerobic capacity and metabolic scope (the amount of energy that can be allocated to activities beyond those required for basic existence) may be influenced strongly by temperature, and adversely impacted by reductions in ambient oxygen availability or increases in CO2 concentrations (Pörtner, 2010, 2012). Given the combined effects that temperature and environmental O2 and pCO2 have on organismal physiology and experimental evidence indicating non-additive interactions on response variables related to fitness and ecosystem function (Pörtner and Farrell, 2008; Pörtner, 2010; Harvey et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013), knowledge of their co-variability is essential for designing OA experiments that adequately characterize biological performance under contemporary relative to future acidified conditions. Yet for workers focused on laboratory OA experiments, these relationships are rarely incorporated into experimental designs. This poses important potential drawbacks. Foremost, if carbonate chemistry strongly covaries with temperature or O2, researchers risk running experiments with control-water characteristics that are atypical of the habitat to which a focal organism/life stage may have acclimated or adapted to. Recently, pCO2 was shown to range widely (200– 2500 matm) and co-vary with temperature and O2 in a fjord located in the northeast Pacific (Reum et al., 2014). In that system, the strength and direction of the relationships changed with season, but also between subregions that differed in terms of vertical mixing. Consequently, within a given season and region, organisms occurring in low pCO2 waters experience temperatures and O2 levels that differed from those experienced by organisms that occupy high pCO2 waters, and this has direct implications for how ecologically relevant OA experiments should be designed (Reum et al., 2014). Here, we expand on the topic and evaluate the potential importance of this issue for upwelling systems. To do so, we have assembled a large dataset of carbonate chemistry measurements from a variety of habitats throughout the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), a major eastern boundary upwelling system that supports highly productive foodwebs. Along the coast, equatorward winds during spring and summer drive surface flow offshore in an Ekman layer, leading to the upwelling of cold, salty, O2-poor, and nutrient- and CO2-rich subsurface water. In fall and winter, the wind direction reverses resulting in downwelling and shoreward advection of oceanic waters which are relatively warm, fresh, O2-saturated, nutrient-deplete, and near air–sea CO2 equilibrium (Evans et al., 2011; Harris et al., 2013). The dataset presented here consists of pCO2 measurements from multiple moorings and ship-based sampling campaigns that collectively span 148 of latitude, and includes data from estuary and open coastal water habitats. Although the extent of data is constrained in either time or space for any single sampling campaign, the synthesis of many datasets offers an overview of the potential range of pCO2, temperature, and O2 conditions experienced by organisms from this region. Subsequently, we compared environmental pCO2 and temperature measurements to conditions in OA experiments performed on organisms obtained from populations that reside within the CCE. In doing so, we place these Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Coastal upwelling systems located along the eastern boundary of ocean basins are some of the most productive ecosystems in the ocean but are also among the most vulnerable to OA (Feely et al., 2008; Gruber et al., 2012). The net transport of deep, nutrient-rich waters to the sunlit surface by upwelling-favourable winds promotes high rates of primary production which in turn supports productive foodwebs and major fisheries (Fréon et al., 2009). However, subsurface and newly upwelled waters naturally exhibit low O2 and high CO2 concentrations due to the remineralization of organic material exported from surface layers. Consequently, they have a reduced capacity to buffer against changes in carbonate chemistry resulting from ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 relative to open-ocean surface waters (Feely et al., 2008; Fassbender et al., 2011; Harris et al., 2013). In eastern Pacific systems such as the California Current, the CO2 burden and O2 drawdown due to respiration are high because the source waters transported to upwelling centres along the coast have been isolated from the surface for a few decades (Feely et al., 2008; Hauri et al., 2009). In the California Current, anthropogenic CO2 has already lowered pH by 0.1, causing the depth of undersaturation with respect to aragonite to shoal and expanding the spatial extent of undersaturated surface waters (Feely et al., 2008; Gruber et al., 2012; Harris et al., 2013). In only a few more decades, models suggest that the depth of undersaturation may shoal into the upper 75 m of the water column in some regions year-round (Gruber et al., 2012; Hauri et al., 2013). Given the economic, ecological, and biogeochemical importance of eastern boundary upwelling regions, understanding how species that compose these ecosystems will respond to OA has emerged as a high research priority (Fabry et al., 2008; Gruber, 2011; Doney et al., 2012). To evaluate the sensitivity of species to OA, researchers commonly rely on manipulative experiments where organisms are exposed to different carbonate chemistry conditions. Typically, experiments include “control” conditions that attempt to simulate contemporary or preindustrial CO2 concentrations and “acidified” treatments that correspond to potential future CO2 uptake by the oceans. For studies focused on organisms from low productivity, open-ocean surface waters researchers can rely on IPCC scenarios of atmospheric pCO2 concentrations to identify potential carbonate chemistry treatments because assumptions of air–sea pCO2 equilibrium are often nearly met (Barry et al., 2010; Orr, 2011). However, in upwelling systems, CO2 levels are more variable relative to open ocean waters due to the outcropping of high-CO2 subsurface waters and high rates of primary production and respiration that strongly modulate seawater carbonate chemistry (Hales et al., 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Borges and Abril, 2011; Fassbender et al., 2011). Consequently, OA experiments that use organisms from these habitats and that rely on IPCC future atmospheric CO2 scenarios to devise control and acidified seawater treatments may inadequately replicate contemporary carbonate chemistry or include treatments that fail to reflect realistic future OA hypotheses (Barry et al., 2010; Andersson and Mackenzie, 2012; McElhany and Busch, 2012). Recognition of the importance of including environmentally relevant pCO2 levels in OA experiments has grown considerably, and has led to the use of seawater chemistry monitoring programmes to inform treatment design in several recent OA studies (Hofmann et al., 2014). Less appreciated from an experimental perspective, however, is the possibility that carbonate chemistry 583 584 experiments in a larger environmental context and draw on observations that may help guide OA researchers in considering experimental designs that are more appropriate for organisms that occur in the CCE and similar coastal systems. Material and methods Carbonate chemistry data Figure 1. Map of coordinates where (a) environmental carbonate chemistry data were obtained from the northern and central CCE from moorings and ship-based underway and discrete samples, (b) the locations where organisms (or their broodstock) included in published OA experiments were collected. In (a), samples coded as Puget Sound also include measurements from the adjoining Strait of Juan de Fuca. For additional details on environmental carbonate chemistry datasets, see Supplementary Table S1. survey, which sampled waters along the continental shelf of western North America; mooring pCO2 time-series of surface waters from an open coast location (Newport, Oregon), and a shallow tidal estuary (Netarts Bay, Oregon); and published carbonate chemistry data from late summer and fall surveys in a large fjord estuary complex (Strait of Juan de Fuca and Puget Sound, Washington; Supplementary Table S1). Further details of the survey, sampling dates, sampling method, and habitats from which data were obtained are provided in Supplementary Table S1. Although the dataset does not include all habitat types that occur within the CCE, we believe these data are sufficiently representative enough to offer an overview of key patterns of carbonate chemistry, temperature, and O2 covariation. For the purposes of the present study, we included all measurements extending up to 200 km from the coast. For our analysis, we focused on pCO2 rather than other parameters of the carbonate system because pCO2 is directly changed by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and is the most commonly used treatment variable in species-exposure OA experiments. Further, direct measurements of pCO2 were more widely available than other parameters in the CDIAC and SOCAT databases, and when not available were readily estimated from other measured parameters of the carbonate system (see Supplementary Table S1 for details on estimation methods). We recognize that organisms may potentially be more sensitive to other variables of the carbonate system such as pH or to changes in the calcium carbonate saturation state of seawater (Barton et al., 2012; Waldbusser and Salisbury, 2013) and that waters with similar pCO2 values may differ with respect to aragonite or calcite saturation states if total alkalinities differ. However, pCO2 is routinely reported in OA studies and is the parameter that allowed us to best standardize comparisons among experiments and between experiments and environmental carbonate chemistry measurements. Further, the focus on pCO2 prevented the use of some carbonate chemistry datasets such as those including information only on pH (e.g. Hofmann et al., 2011). We limited our analysis to pCO2 measurements taken from the top 50 m of the water column because the species and life history stages for which OA experiments have been performed from the northern and central CCE typically occur in waters within this depth range, although individuals of some populations may occur for periods below this depth. We evaluated separate relationships between pCO2 and temperature and pCO2 and O2 within summer upwelling and winter downwelling periods. Co-variation patterns for pCO2 and temperature were examined for data pooled from shipboard underway and discrete sample measurements collected along the West Coast continental shelf. In addition, we also examined co-variation patterns for Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca discrete sample measurements (hereafter referred to as “Puget Sound”). A subset of these data were examined in an earlier study (Reum et al., 2014), but we include them here for completeness and to facilitate comparisons among habitats represented within the CCE. We chose to present co-variation patterns for Puget Sound separately from the West Coast because Puget Sound exhibits slow exchange with open coastal waters and high rates of primary productivity and respiration (Feely et al., 2010). The resulting pCO2 –temperature relationships therefore likely differ considerably from patterns observed in shelf waters. For the time-series data, we estimated pCO2 –temperature relationships for upwelling and downwelling seasons, but examined co-variation patterns separately for each mooring to evaluate site-level differences. To evaluate pCO2 and O2 relationships and facilitate comparisons across survey types and seasons, we converted all O2 concentration Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Our analysis focused on coastal waters within the domain of the northern and central CCE (Figure 1). The region extends from northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia (508N) to Point Conception, California (348N), and is typified by distinct wind-driven upwelling (May –October) and downwelling (November– April) oceanographic seasons (Checkley and Barth, 2009). The region includes large expanses of open coastal habitat and many inlets and estuaries that range considerably in terms of surface area, depth, substrate, and connectivity with the open ocean (Hickey and Banas, 2003). To obtain an overview of the potential range of temperatures and carbonate chemistry conditions, we retrieved all publicly available records of measurements sampled within our region of interest from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT, Bakker et al., 2013). The dataset includes carbonate chemistry measurements from discrete water samples collected at depth, shipboard measurements of surface water pCO2, and mooring pCO2 time-series of surface waters off the coast of California and Washington (Supplementary Table S1). In addition to CDIAC and SOCAT data, we also included unpublished carbonate chemistry data obtained from the 2011 and 2012 NOAA Ocean Acidification Programme West Coast Cruise J. C. P. Reum et al. 585 Ocean acidification and experimental design measurements to micromole per kilogramme. As with the pCO2 and temperature data, we examined co-variation within data pooled from shipboard West Coast measurements, Puget Sound, and each mooring and by season. To improve assumptions of normality in the residual error structure for the pCO2 –temperature and pCO2 – O2 relationships, we log10-transformed pCO2 values before estimating linear relationships using least-squares regression. For presentation purposes, the liner relationships were back-transformed to the original pCO2 scale. Our goal was to estimate overall mean relationships within seasons and survey types to facilitate visual inspection and to evaluate co-variation patterns in an exploratory manner. We therefore did not test for significant differences between seasons or survey types. All linear relationships were fitted using the R version 2.11 statistical software package (R Development Core Team, 2011). We searched the published literature for OA experiments that included organisms obtained directly from habitats within the northern and central CCE or that originated from broodstock collected from the region. To do so, we searched Google Scholar, ISI databases (Web of Science, Current Contents), and references included in recently published reviews and meta-analyses that address OA (Dupont et al., 2010; Wernberg et al., 2012; Harvey et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013; Wittmann and Pörtner, 2013). We used the search terms “ocean acidification”, “carbon dioxide”, “experiment”, and “manipulation”. We included all studies published through 15 October 2013 that were found under these search criteria. From each study, we retrieved information on the collection site of the organism (or their broodstock) and the temperatures and pCO2 levels at which the experiment was performed. For nearly all studies, experimental O2 concentrations were not reported nor could saturation conditions be safely assumed. We therefore focused our comparison of environmental and experimental conditions to pCO2 and temperature. Following the authors’ interpretation of the results, we recorded whether the dependent biological variables differed significantly in a positive or negative direction or showed no significant difference relative to the control pCO2 level specified by the author. If authors did not explicitly designate a control pCO2 level in their study, we considered treatments with pCO2 levels closest to present-day air pCO2 levels (400 matm) as the control to facilitate comparisons across studies. When more than one response variable was tested in an experiment, we coded the net outcome of the experiment at a given treatment level based on the result of the variable most sensitive to pCO2. From the outset, we recognized that the species and life history stages for which published OA experimental data were available held distributions that spanned large sections of the northern and central CCE or were planktonic with high dispersal potential. Further, the exact dispersal patterns of many of these species are not well understood. Although larvae of some species may be functionally limited to a subset of the CCE system (e.g. some species may occur primarily in bays or estuaries), “spillage” into adjoining habitats and waters through advective processes is also probable. We therefore used the full dataset of field pCO2 and temperature measurements to demarcate the potential pCO2 – temperature space organisms may encounter. We acknowledge that the actual pCO2 levels and temperatures experienced by organisms will differ for populations across locations, seasons, and due to possible interannual variation in upwelling and climate forcing. Our main intention, however, was to draw comparisons between the conditions maintained in OA experiments and the full range of environmental Results pCO2 , temperature, and O2 co-variation Temperature and pCO2 values in the upper 50 m of the CCE spanned 6–198C and 100–1500 matm, respectively, based on the pooled shipboard underway and discrete water sample measurements along the open coast. pCO2 values tended to increase with decreasing water temperature during summer upwelling months (Figure 2a). In Puget Sound, a similar but steeper relationship was apparent relative to the open coastal waters, reflecting CO2-enriched waters (Figure 2a). Along the open coast, the range of pCO2 values was also wider at cool relative to warm temperatures. For instance, pCO2 values at 98C ranged from 320 to 1400 matm, while at 168C, the range extended from 130 to 420 matm. In Puget Sound, the pCO2 range was also wider at cooler temperatures (Figure 2a). Although fewer measurements were available during winter in general (Supplementary Table S1), the data showed weak co-variation between pCO2 and temperature in open coastal waters and the overall range of pCO2 values and temperatures narrowed relative to summer (Figure 2b). This is due to the relative absence of the cold, high- pCO2 upwelled source waters. In contrast, winter pCO2 and temperature values in Puget Sound positively covaried, and the range of pCO2 values and temperatures also narrowed relative to summer (Figure 2b). Time-series data collected from moored platforms in open coastal waters from four locations also indicated co-variation between pCO2 and temperature (Figure 3a –c). During summer upwelling months, pCO2 again generally declined with increasing temperature (Figure 3a –c). The range of pCO2 levels among stations, however, differed substantially. Time-series data collected at moorings in shelf waters off Washington and near Point Conception, CA. (Figure 3a and b) ranged in pCO2 from 200 to 600 and 300 to 600 matm, respectively, while off the coast of Oregon the range spanned 200–1100 matm (Figure 3c). The differences among stations reflect considerable spatial variation in the supply of newly upwelled waters. Time-series data collected from Netarts Bay, a shallow tidal estuary in northern Oregon, indicated summer range in pCO2 values was also considerable, spanning 300–800 matm and reflected high rates of primary production and respiration (Figure 3d). The overall relationship between pCO2 and temperature, however, was also negative. In winter, co-variation between pCO2 and temperature at all mooring stations was weaker relative to summer but variable across stations (Figure 3d). In addition, the range of temperatures and pCO2 values were generally lower in winter relative to summer in two of the five stations (Figure 3c and d). Measurements of O2 were available for a subset of pCO2 records included in the complete environmental pCO2 and temperature dataset (Supplementary Table S1). Forall survey types, mooring timeseries, and seasons, pCO2 levels decreased with increasing O2 concentration (Figure 4). For most moorings on the shelf, O2 ranged from 230 to 350 mmol kg21 (both seasons combined). Summer O2 levels at Newport Oregon, however, ranged from 120 to 350 mmol kg21 (Figure 4). Summer O2 measurements from discrete samples from Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 OA experimental studies pCO2 and temperature values based on empirical observations. In the absence of detailed information on the fine-scale distribution and movement patterns of most species and life history stages, and environmental pCO2 –temperature measurements of matching resolution, comparisons at finer spatio-temporal scales were not possible. 586 J. C. P. Reum et al. Puget Sound and the West Coast ranged more widely, from 40 to 400 mmol kg21, where concentrations below 60 mmol kg21 reflect hypoxic conditions (Figure 4). The general negative relationship between pCO2 and O2 corresponds to the well-understood effects of aerobic respiration and photosynthesis in marine ecosystems. When aerobic respiration dominates, CO2 is remineralized and O2 levels are drawn down, while the reverse occurs when photosynthesis dominates. OA studies In total, 26 experiments from 22 published OA studies included organisms (or broodstock) from the northern and central CCE (Figure 1b) and provided sufficient information on treatment water conditions to compare with the CCE pCO2 – temperature space defined by combining all environmental datasets (Table 1). In terms of taxonomic diversity, 50, 35, and 15% of experiments evaluated responses in echinoderms, molluscs, and teleosts, respectively. However, 35% of all experiments focused on responses in a single species, the echinoderm Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (Table 1). Of the experiments, 81% examined gamete, egg, or larval performance (survival, growth, calcification rates), while the remaining studies evaluated performance metrics (growth, development, or calcification rates) in juvenile or adult life history stages (Table 1). One study measured genetic diversity in echinoderm larvae after exposure to different pCO2 treatments to evaluate evolutionary potential. To facilitate visual inspection and comparison of experimental pCO2 and temperature treatments with the pCO2 –temperature space defined by the complete set of environmental measurements in our dataset, we examined echinoderm and non-echinoderm studies separately (Figure 5). Overall, OA experiments included pCO2 treatment levels that extended from 200 to 4000 matm; 42% of experiments included a single elevated pCO2 treatment in addition to a control at a given temperature, 38% considered two different elevated pCO2 treatments, and 19% included three or more elevated treatments (Figure 5). In total, 72% of experiments included at least one control and one elevated pCO2 treatment that occurred within the observed range of pCO2 and temperature values in the CCE. Of those, 63% (10 out of 16) observed negative biological effects, 18% observed positive effects, and 18% observed no effect relative to control pCO2 levels. Only two studies included pCO2 treatments below approximate present-day atmospheric levels (400 matm; Figure 5). Compared with the pCO2 – temperature space defined by the complete set of environmental measurements in our dataset, five experiments were performed at temperatures that matched or exceeded the warmest observed values (198C; Figure 5). These included three experiments on the early life history stages of the native Olympia oyster, an experiment on sand dollar larvae, and an experiment on the non-native Pacific oyster which is routinely reared at 208C to optimize survival under commercial hatchery conditions. One experiment included a 2.18C treatment; though this temperature was meant to simulate cool conditions in Alaskan waters, the source stock was collected near Puget Sound (Table 1). A review of each study indicated that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of future global surface ocean mean pCO2 levels were used as the sole rationale for selecting OA treatments in 45% of studies, while 31% cited a combination of regional modelling studies, local field measurements, and IPCC estimates to support their choice of experimental pCO2 treatment levels. Of the remaining studies, 13% provided no rationale for their choice of pCO2 treatment levels, one based the high pCO2 treatment level on observations of contemporary upwelling conditions, and one noted natural high carbonate chemistry variability in coastal upwelling systems which necessitated the need to test biological responses to a wide range of pCO2 levels. In terms of temperature, 80% of studies did not provide a rationale for their choice of Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Figure 2. (a) Relationship between pCO2 and temperature in the top 50 m of the water column in the northern and central CCE during summer upwelling season which approximately spans May through October and (b) winter (November through April) when downwelling-favourable winds predominate. All non-time-series data are displayed. Measurements of pCO2 from cool waters in Puget Sound are elevated relative to other regions sampled in the CCE. Regression lines are overlaid to aid evaluation of patterns. Lines labelled P and C denote relationships for Puget Sound and open coastal locations, respectively. For reference, approximate present-day pCO2 levels (390 matm) are indicated by the dashed horizontal line. Ocean acidification and experimental design 587 experimental levels. The remaining studies cited similarity to local field conditions as a rationale for selecting temperatures. Of the two studies that performed experiments that included crossed temperature and pCO2 treatments meant to correspond to conditions in the CCE, the warmer treatments were chosen in reference to IPCC global average temperature increase projections. Discussion Single-species response experiments have offered important initial evidence that some species and life history stages may be adversely impacted by OA (Kroeker et al., 2013; Wittmann and Pörtner, 2013), but there is a pressing need for the development of experiments that include more appropriate reference treatments that reflect pCO2 levels species have acclimated or adapted to and acidified treatments that more closely reflect natural heterogeneity in carbonate chemistry (Barry et al., 2010; Andersson and Mackenzie, 2012; McElhany and Busch, 2012; Waldbusser and Salisbury, 2013). Our analysis shows that an additional source of concern is natural co-variation between carbonate chemistry and other biologically relevant variables including temperature and O2. These findings have direct consequences for designing experiments that aim to include control treatments that are similar to natural water conditions and for selecting elevated pCO2 treatment levels that more closely correspond to OA hypotheses. Further, by placing the findings of published OA experiments into a larger environmental context, we gain information on the ecological relevance of experimental water conditions and insight into the potential sensitivity of some species and life stages to carbonate chemistry conditions that already occur in the CCE. Although researchers increasingly recognize the importance of basing experimental pCO2 levels on in situ carbonate chemistry observations (Yu et al., 2011; Evans et al., 2013; Hofmann et al., 2014), the implications of natural co-variationwith temperature or O2 to experimental design and inference are only beginning to be explored. Given experimental evidence and theoretical expectations of interactive or synergistic effects between pCO2, temperature, and O2 on organisms Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Figure 3. Relationship between pCO2 and temperature of surface waters measured during summer (light grey open circle symbols) and winter (dark grey) at open coastal moorings in (a) Washington, (b) California, and (c) Oregon, and (d) a tidal estuary in Oregon. Regression lines are overlaid and labelled S and W to indicate summer or winter, respectively. Dashed line convex hulls demarcate data ranges where seasons overlap. For reference, approximate present-day pCO2 levels (390 matm) are indicated by the dashed horizontal line. 588 (Pörtner, 2010, 2012; Harvey et al., 2013), we suggest that failure to account for natural co-variation among these variables in habitats from the CCE may lead to results with diminished relevance for making predictions. To illustrate this point, we present an example multistressor experimental scheme typical of published OA experiments in which temperature (three levels at 8, 12, and 168C) is crossed with two pCO2 levels that correspond to approximate global surface ocean present-day (400 matm) and future (800 matm) conditions (Figure 6a). Under the conventional method, treatments are fully orthogonal which permits estimates of the effect sizes of the individual predictor variables and of their interaction on the response variable. The method holds merit as a tool for comparing the relative influence that each predictor has on the response variable, is widely applied in multistressor experiments, and facilitates the development of mechanistic models. However, if a goal of a study is to evaluate the potential sensitivity of organisms to future OA as is often the case, the design may be inadequate, given natural pCO2 –temperature co-variation within different habitats and water masses. For example, assuming an organism of interest occurs in shelf waters off Oregon during summer upwelling months (e.g. a pelagic larval invertebrate), the assumption that 800 matm corresponds to a future OA prediction across all temperatures is not accurate. At the Newport, Oregon, mooring pCO2 levels of 800 matm already occur at 88C under presentday conditions and “control” 400 matm waters do not (Figure 6a). At temperatures above 138C, the mean pCO2 values approach air–sea equilibrium conditions. We do not doubt that simple crossed experimental designs will provide information on the interactive effects of pCO2 and temperature, but we do question the efficacy of the design for testing OA hypotheses on future ecological response to OA, given naturally occurring pCO2 –temperature relationships and the wide range of both variables in the CCE. In light of potential co-variation between carbonate chemistry and other important environmental variables, how should researchers select pCO2 treatments that correspond to OA hypotheses? As a starting point, we recommend that OA experimental designs include multiple controls that reflect the span of pCO2 levels and temperatures likely to be experienced by the organism under study (Figure 5b). To design pCO2 treatments that represent future OA scenarios in productive coastal systems, we suggest that researchers focus on changes in the anthropogenic contribution to in situ dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC (e.g. Feely et al., 2008, 2010; Barry et al., 2010; Melzner et al., 2012; Shaw et al., 2013). At the Newport, Oregon, mooring, newly upwelled waters exhibit pCO2 values that are elevated relative to air–sea equilibrium conditions due to the remineralization of organic material before surfacing (Evans et al., 2011). However, after surfacing CO2 concentrations can be drawn down rapidly by photosynthesis (Hales et al., 2005; Hales et al., 2006; Evans et al., 2011), often at rates that typically far exceed CO2 equilibration times across the air–sea interface (e.g. van Geen et al., 2000; Fassbender et al., 2011). Consequently, the anthropogenic CO2 burden of upwelled waters is primarily acquired when they were last in contact with the atmosphere and before DIC changes due to biological processes post-surfacing. In our example, pCO2 treatments reflecting future OA hypotheses could be obtained by increasing in situ DIC concentrations by an increment (DDIC) expected under a given CO2 emissions scenario. The future DIC estimate (DDIC + in situ DIC), along with a second parameter from the carbonate system, could then be used to recalculate the carbonate system to estimate treatment pCO2 levels. Because the Newport, Oregon, time-series consists only of pCO2, we first needed to estimate in situ DIC. To do so, we estimated total alkalinity (TA) from salinity measurements using a linear model parameterized with data from the CCE (Gray et al., 2011). The relationship has relatively low residual error (approximately +20 mmol kg21) and was shown previously to adequately predict TA for the purposes of estimating the carbonate system when using pCO2 as the second parameter (Harris et al., 2013). We used the estimated TA and in situ pCO2, salinity, and temperature measurements to solve the carbonate system and calculate in situ DIC. To estimate DDIC, we solved the carbonate system based on estimates of TA, and in situ temperature, and salinity, but assuming seawater equilibrium with average atmospheric pCO2 levels during the period of the moored observations (390 matm; Harris et al., 2013) and those predicted under an emissions scenario for the year 2100 (788 matm; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92a “continually increasing” emissions scenario). The present-day air– sea equilibrium DIC estimate was subtracted from the future equilibrium estimate to obtain DDIC. Although the same present day and future pCO2 levels were used to calculate DDIC for all samples, DDIC values differ among samples because estimates of DIC at air–sea pCO2 equilibrium vary based on the TA, temperature, and salinity of the sample. Across all water samples, DDIC spanned 75 –105 mmol kg21 depending on the TA and temperature of samples. We then obtained future pCO2 estimates by solving the carbonate system using the estimated TA and in situ DIC + DDIC values (Figure 6b). Versions of the method have been described previously (e.g. Barry et al., 2010) and can be used to estimate preindustrial carbonate chemistry conditions (e.g. Feely et al., 2008; Harris et al., 2013). Under this approach, and assuming the same number of treatments is used as depicted in Figure 6a, the effects of temperature and pCO2 can no longer be separated because orthogonality in the design is lost (Figure 6b). However, a more realistic set of control treatments are included that offer a firmer basis for drawing Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Figure 4. Relationships between pCO2 and O2 in the top 50 m of the water column during summer upwelling (May through October) and winter downwelling seasons (November through April). Regression lines are overlaid for summer and winter; lines labelled M, P, and C correspond to mooring, Puget Sound, and open coast datasets, respectively. For reference, approximate present-day pCO2 levels (390 matm) are indicated by the dashed horizontal line, and the hypoxia threshold (60 mmol kg21) is indicated with a dashed vertical line. J. C. P. Reum et al. Study number 1 Reference Gooding et al. (2009) Collection site Jaricho Beach, BC 2 Reuter et al. (2011) Barkley Sound, BC 3 Nienhuis et al. (2010) Barkley Sound, BC 4 Sunday et al. (2011) Barkley Sound, BC 4 Sunday et al. (2011) Barkley Sound, BC 5 Crim et al. (2011) Barkley Sound, BC 6 Chan et al. (2011) Orcas Island, WA 7 Timmins-Schiffman San Juan Island, et al. (2012) WA O’Donnell et al. (2013) San Juan Island, WA 8 Species (common name) Pisaster ochraceus (purple sea star) Strongylocentrotus franciscanus (red sea urchin) Nucella lamellose (Frilled dogwinkle) Strongylocentrotus franciscanus (red sea urchin) Mytilus trossulus (bay mussel) Haliotis kamtschatkana (northern abalone) Dendraster excentricus (Pacific sand dollar) Crassostrea gigas (Pacific oyster) Mytilus trossulus (bay mussel) Life stage Juvenile Duration (days, hours) 70 d Control pCO2 T (88 C) (matm) 12, 15 380 Treatment pCO2 (matm) 780 Outcome relative to control Increased growth rate, reduced calcified mass; feeding and growth increased with temperature Decreased range of sperm concentrations over which high fertilization success was likely Enhanced shell dissolution Sperm/eggs 1h 10.2 400 800, 1800 Adults 6d 9.0 380 780, 1585 Larvae 1d 12.0 400 1000 Reduced larval size, large variation among families Larvae 1d 12.0 400 1000 Larvae 8d 12.0 400 800, 1800 Larvae 10 d 20.0 380 1000 Larvae 3d 20.0 468 847, 1065 Adults 20 d 10.4 432 42 d 8.8 414 299, 575, 736, 980, 1057, 1180, 1322, 1498 478, 815, 1805 Reduced larval size, small variation among families Reduced survival, increased abnormalities in shell structure, reduced size in normal-shelled larvae Reduced body size and stomachs; no effect on swimming speed Increased calcification at day 1, but smaller average size on day 3 Weaker, less flexible byssal threads at treatments above 1200 matm 196 d 8.3 596 828, 1285, 2894 196 d 2.4 386 225, 643, 1543 35 d 8.1 442 296, 871, 1844 Larvae 96 h 12.8 435 813, 1255 Larvae 17 d 14.1 428 897 9 Hurst et al. (2012) Port Townsend, WA Theragra chalcogramma Yearlings (walleye pollock) 9 Hurst et al. (2012) 9 Hurst et al. (2012) 10 Hurst et al. (2013) Port Townsend, WA Port Townsend, WA Port Townsend, WA Theragra chalcogramma Sub-yearlings (walleye pollock) warm Theragra chalcogramma Sub-yearlings (walleye pollock) cool Theragra chalcogramma Eggs/larvae (walleye pollock) 11 Evans et al. (2013) Fogarty Creek, OR 12 Pespeni et al. (2013) OR to CA., various locations Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Ocean acidification and experimental design Table 1. Brief summary of experimental outcomes of reviewed OA studies that focus on organisms (or their broodstock) collected from the CCE. No effect on growth but increase in otolith deposition rate, biological implication is unclear Increase growth at pCO2 higher than 900 matm; no change in condition factor No difference in growth or condition factor across treatments No difference in egg hatch rate, size, or survival, but longer time till hatching; authors think elevated pCO2 treatments have minor effect Transcriptome up-regulation of genes related to calcification at intermediate pCO2, no change at high level Reduction in larval body length, change in allele frequency, no change in timing of settlement or competence to metamorphose 589 Continued Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 590 Table 1. Continued 14 15 16 17 18 Species Reference Collection site (common name) LaVigne et al. (2012) OR to CA, various Strongylocentrotus locations purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Kelly et al. (2013) Northern and Strongylocentrotus southern CA, purpuratus various locations (purple sea urchin) Place and Smith Bodega Bay, CA Strongylocentrotus (2012) purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Hettinger et al. (2012) Tomales Bay, CA Ostreola lurida (Olympia oyster) Hettinger et al. (2013a) Tomales Bay, CA Ostreola lurida (Olympia oyster) Hettinger et al. Tomales Bay, CA Ostreola lurida (2013b) (Olympia oyster) 19 Gaylord et al. (2011) Tomales Bay, CA 20 Padilla-Gamiño et al. (2013) Santa Barbara, CA 21 Matson et al. (2012) Santa Barbara, CA 22 Yu et al. (2011) Santa Barbara, CA 22 Yu et al. (2011) Santa Barbara, CA Mytilus californianus (California mussel) Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (purple sea urchin) Life stage Larvae Duration (days, hours) 50 d Control pCO2 T (88 C) (matm) 14.1 490 Treatment pCO2 (matm) 1001 Larvae 5d 13.0 424 1210 Embryos 7d 15.1 378 1486, 4110 Outcome relative to control No change Sr/Mg composition in spines; though a difference was observed for a Santa Barbara population of urchins Reduced size in larvae from dams and sires taken from northern and southern locations; no difference in metabolism No disruption to cell cycle in fertilized eggs Larvae/ juveniles Larvae 45 d 20.0 739 933, 1355 Reduced larval and juvenile growth 22 d 19.4 520 1075 Larvae/ juveniles 127 d 20.0 485 1060 Larvae 8d 15.4 380 540, 970 Reduced number of settlers; no difference in shell size or larval dry weight Reduced larval survival and growth; reduced growth in juveniles outplanted to an estuary Thinner, weaker shells Larvae 75 h Larvae 13, 18 400 1100 Reduced body size and respiration rate; difference in transcriptome observed 6d 15.6 365 1038, 1444 Larvae 6d 15.6 372 1057, 1469 Reduced arm length; no difference in utilization of energy lipid reserves and protein content remained unchanged Slight reduction in size Larvae 6d 15.6 432 1441 Slight reduction in size J. C. P. Reum et al. Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Study number 13 Ocean acidification and experimental design 591 Figure 6. Schematic of potential experimental approaches to evaluate OA effects, given co-variation between pCO2 and temperature. To illustrate the benefits and drawback of each approach, in situ pCO2 and temperature measurements from the N10 mooring near Newport, Oregon, during summer upwelling season (2008) are depicted (grey, filled squares; bars indicate standard deviation). (a) A conventional temperature (three levels: 8, 12, and 168C) by pCO2 experimental design in which control pCO2 values are based on approximate present-day global average surface ocean pCO2 levels and the acidified treatments corresponding to IPCC emissions scenario IS92a projections for year 2100 (390 and 788 matm; open square and circle symbols, respectively). Arrows indicate statistical comparisons permitted by the design. (b) Experimental design informed by in situ pCO2 and temperature measurements. Under this design, three controls are included to account for natural co-variation in temperature and pCO2. Treatment levels that more closely correspond to an OA hypothesis were obtained by specifying an increase in DIC attributed to anthropogenic CO2 emissions (see Discussion for details). The future DIC estimate and estimates of TA were used to recalculate the carbonate system to obtain target pCO2 treatment levels. We calculated pCO2 using the R library “seacarb” (Lavigne and Gattuso, 2010) with dissociation constants from Lueker et al. (2000). inferences about future OA impacts at a given temperature. The experimental design could be improved further by using O2 concentrations that currently occur at the three different pCO2 – temperature controls. The method we use to estimate future pCO2 requires several important assumptions. First, the approach implicitly assumes that TA, salinity, and temperature will remain unchanged and that future difference in DIC between the observed in situ values and Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Figure 5. Environmental pCO2 and temperature measurements (top 50 m) from the northern and central CCE and conditions maintained in OA experiments performed on organisms from the region. Dark grey circles correspond to environmental measurements from Puget Sound, Washington; light grey circles correspond to environmental measurements from all other regions. pCO2 treatment levels included in an individual experiment at a given temperature are connected by solid black lines. Numbers denote study code (see Table 1). A convex hull (solid grey line) demarcating the extent of all environmental pCO2 and temperature measurements is depicted to aid visual comparisons. For reference, approximate present-day atmospheric pCO2 levels (390 matm) are indicated by the dashed horizontal line. 592 storms or the advection of a different water mass into a region can result in rapid change in water characteristics that may persist for several days (Frieder et al., 2012). Over interannual time-scales, large-scale climate phenomena like El Niño/Southern Oscillation can influence upwelling patterns, coastal productivity, carbonate chemistry (Chavez et al., 1999; Friederich et al., 2002), and thus potentially relationships among pCO2 and temperature and O2. To date, studies evaluating patterns of co-variation between pCO2 and other biologically relevant variables over a range of temporal scales are sparse, but the topic is an area of research we are currently exploring. Incorporating both temporal dynamics and multiple stressors in experimental systems is technically challenging, but may be necessary for ecologically relevant predictions. Conclusions OA is expected to have far-reaching impacts on the structure and function of marine ecosystems by altering biogeochemical processes and the productivity and distribution of species (Fabry et al., 2008; Doney et al., 2009, 2012; Mora et al., 2013; Waldbusser and Salisbury, 2013). Our ability to predict the response of complex ecological systems to OA, however, remains limited and is highly constrained by major uncertainties in the response of species to both direct (e.g. physiology, neurological impairment) and indirect (e.g. trophic interactions) processes that may be vulnerable to OA (Fabry et al., 2008; Hofmann et al., 2010). While authors have noted the need for OA researchers to use pCO2 levels that correspond to ambient conditions a study species or life history stage is likely to experience (Andersson and Mackenzie, 2012; McElhany and Busch, 2012), patterns of co-variation with temperature and O2 have yet to be incorporated into OA experimental designs (Reum et al., 2014). As demonstrated here, this issue should be of concern to researchers in upwelling systems and other coastal environments where water conditions are highly dynamic over a range of spatial and temporal scales and where co-variation between pCO2, temperature, and O2 are generally expected. Because inferences on the potential response of organisms to future conditions are necessarily premised on the notion that experimental controls reflect present-day conditions, we strongly recommend researchers consider how pCO2 naturally varies with other biologically important variables in their experimental designs. Importantly, the studies we reviewed for the CCE indicate that several species may be sensitive to carbonate chemistry conditions that already occur, and suggest that present-day variability in carbonate chemistry may be more important to contemporary ecological patterns than previously thought. With the continued collection of high-quality carbonate chemistry measurements and their archival on freely accessible databases, analyses like the one we present here for the CCE may yield further insight into the relevance of carbonate chemistry variability to contemporary ecological processes as well as guide OA experimental design in other marine systems. Supplementary data Supplementary material is available at the ICESJMS online version of the manuscript. Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank many research technical staff in the laboratories that contributed data used in this manuscript, particularly the scientific and engineering staff in NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) carbon, CTD-O2, and engineering groups; UW’s Applied Physics Laboratory (UW/APL) and Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 those calculated assuming present-day air–sea equilibrium will remain the same. Further, to estimate DDIC, we assumed that all water properties measured at the time of sampling are the same as when the water mass last approached air– sea equilibrium. If waters were cooler at that time, this would result in a slight overestimate of DDIC of 1.6 mmol kg21 for each degree Celsius. Following earlier studies, we also assumed that waters upwelled at the mooring location possessed an anthropogenic CO2 burden that approximated present-day atmospheric pCO2 conditions (Harris et al., 2013). In other locations within the CCE, such assumptions may not be justified because subsurface waters upwelled on to the shelf may last have had contact with the surface decades prior and therefore would contain less anthropogenic CO2 (Feely et al., 2008; Harris et al., 2013). The OA pCO2 –temperature relationship depicted in Figure 6b corresponds to one simple hypothesis for how present-day carbonate chemistry conditions might change with a simple augmentation of CO2. However, marine organisms will be subjected to multiple stressors in the future, including warmer temperatures, lower ambient O2 concentrations, cultural eutrophication, and pollution (Boyd, 2011; Gruber, 2011; Doney et al., 2012). Treatments corresponding to an OA + warming hypothesis could be created by adding to in situ measurements of both temperature and DIC and recalculating the carbonate system to obtain appropriate estimates of pCO2 (Melzner et al., 2012). If a hypoxia + OA treatment is sought, any assumed reduction in O2 owing to aerobic respiration necessarily corresponds to an increase in CO2 (Melzner et al., 2012; Sunda and Cai, 2012). The corresponding increase in DIC beyond that attributed to OA could be estimated based on the molar ratio of O2 consumed to CO2 released in the respiratory consumption of organic matter (Sunda and Cai, 2012). We caution, however, that the appropriateness of these simple methods for estimating treatment levels should be thoughtfully considered in the light of the physical and biological attributes of the system under study. Such simplifications do not take into account the indirect and cascading impacts that changes in individual properties such as temperature will have on ecosystem metabolism and thus the distribution and concentration of O2 and CO2 (e.g. Keeling et al., 2010; Gruber, 2011; Doney et al., 2012), nor would they reflect potential changes in large-scale circulation patterns or productivity regimes which might fundamentally alter relationships between pCO2 and other variables (e.g. Rykaczewski and Dunne, 2010). Despite these uncertainties, developing experimental designs that include controls that reflect present-day pCO2 –temperature–O2 relationships in upwelling systems should become the cornerstone of experiments that aim to quantify the potential response of organism to future predicted changes in their environment. The development of experimental systems that permit simultaneous control over pCO2, temperature, and O2 conditions remains a technical challenge, but a growing number of OA research facilities are acquiring the capacity to do so (Bockmon et al., 2013). Our compilation of environmental carbonate chemistry data is meant to offer an initial overview of the ranges of pCO2, temperature, and O2 in the CCE and the extent to which their relationships vary between seasons and regions. We examined patterns of covariation between pCO2 and temperature at coarse seasonal timescales, but note that co-variation patterns may differ depending on temporal scale. On diel time-scales, solar heating and photosynthesis and respiration may drive strong cyclical patterns in temperature, pCO2, and O2 (Barton et al., 2012; Frieder et al., 2012; Waldbusser and Salisbury, 2013), while abrupt events such as J. C. P. Reum et al. Ocean acidification and experimental design References Andersson, A. J., and Mackenzie, F. T. 2012. Revisiting four scientific debates in ocean acidification research. Biogeosciences, 9: 893 – 905. Barry, J. P., Tyrrell, T., Hansson, L., Plattner, G., and Gattuso, J. 2010. Atmospheric CO2 targets for ocean acidification perturbation experiments. In Guide to Best Practices for Ocean Acidification Research and Data Reporting, pp. 53 –66. Ed. by U. Riebesell, V. J. Fabry, L. Hansson, and J-P. Gattuso. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Bakker, D. C. E., Pfeil, B., Smith, K., Hankin, S., Olsen, A, Alin, S. R., Cosca, C., et al. 2013. An update to the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT version 2). Earth System Science Data, 6: 1 – 22, 6, doi:10.5194/essd-6-69-2014, 2014 Barton, A., Hales, B., Waldbusser, G. G., Langdon, C., and Feely, R. A. 2012. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated carbon dioxide levels: implications for nearterm ocean acidification effects. Limnology and Oceanography, 57: 698– 710. Bockmon, E., Frieder, C., Navarro, M., White-Kershek, L., and Dickson, A. 2013. Controlled experimental aquarium system for multistressor investigation: carbonate chemistry, oxygen saturation, and temperature. Biogeosciences, 10: 5967 –5975. Borges, A. V., and Abril, G. 2011. Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries. In Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, 5, pp. 119– 161. Ed. by D. McClusky, and E. Wolanski. Academic Press, Waltham. Boyd, P. W. 2011. Beyond ocean acidification. Nature Geoscience, 4: 273– 274. Chan, K. Y. K., Grünbaum, D., and O’Donnell, M. J. 2011. Effects of ocean-acidification-induced morphological changes on larval swimming and feeding. The Journal of Experimental Biology, 214: 3857– 3867. Chavez, F. P., Strutton, P. G., Friederich, C. E., Feely, R. A., Feldman, G. C., Foley, D. C., and McPhaden, M. J. 1999. Biological and chemical response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997– 98 El Niño. Science, 286: 2126– 2131. Checkley, D. M., and Barth, J. A. 2009. Patterns and processes in the California Current System. Progress in Oceanography, 83: 49– 64. Crim, R. N., Sunday, J. M., and Harley, C. D. 2011. Elevated seawater CO2 concentrations impair larval development and reduce larval survival in endangered northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana). Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400: 272 – 277. Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A. 2009. Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. Annual Review of Marine Science, 1: 169 – 192. Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett Duffy, J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., et al. 2012. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, 4: 11– 37. Dupont, S., Ortega-Martı́nez, O., and Thorndyke, M. 2010. Impact of near-future ocean acidification on echinoderms. Ecotoxicology, 19: 449– 462. Evans, T. G., Chan, F., Menge, B. A., and Hofmann, G. E. 2013. Transcriptomic responses to ocean acidification in larval sea urchins from a naturally variable pH environment. Molecular Ecology, 22: 1609 – 1625. Evans, W., Hales, B., and Strutton, P. G. 2011. Seasonal cycle of surface ocean pCO2 on the Oregon shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116: C05012. Fabry, V. J., Seibel, B. A., Feely, R. A., and Orr, J. C. 2008. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 414 – 432. Fassbender, A. J., Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Langdon, C., and Mordy, C. W. 2011. Inorganic carbon dynamics during northern California coastal upwelling. Continental Shelf Research, 31: 1180– 1192. Feely, R. A., Alin, S. R., Newton, J., Sabine, C. L., Warner, M., Devol, A., Krembs, C., et al. 2010. The combined effects of ocean acidification, mixing, and respiration on pH and carbonate saturation in an urbanized estuary. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, 88: 442– 449. Feely, R. A., Sabine, C. L., Hernandez-Ayon, J. M., Ianson, D., and Hales, B. 2008. Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf. Science, 320: 1490– 1492. Fréon, P., Barange, M., and Arı́stegui, J. 2009. Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems: integrative and comparative approaches. Progress in Oceanography, 83: 1 – 14. Frieder, C. A., Nam, S. H., Martz, T. R., and Levin, L. A. 2012. High temporal and spatial variability of dissolved oxygen and pH in a nearshore California kelp forest. Biogeosciences, 9: 3917– 3930. Friederich, G., Walz, P., Burczynski, M., and Chavez, F. 2002. Inorganic carbon in the central California upwelling system during the 1997– 1999 El Niño – La Niña event. Progress in Oceanography, 54: 185– 203. Gaylord, B., Hill, T. M., Sanford, E., Lenz, E. A., Jacobs, L. A., Sato, K. N., Russell, A. D., et al. 2011. Functional impacts of ocean acidification in an ecologically critical foundation species. The Journal of Experimental Biology, 214: 2586– 2594. Gooding, R. A., Harley, C. D., and Tang, E. 2009. Elevated water temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase the growth of a keystone echinoderm. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106: 9316 – 9321. Gray, S. E., DeGrandpre, M. D., Moore, T. S., Martz, T. R., Friederich, G. E., and Johnson, K. S. 2011. Applications of in situ pH measurements for inorganic carbon calculations. Marine Chemistry, 125: 82 – 90. Gruber, N. 2011. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369: 1980– 1996. Gruber, N., Hauri, C., Lachkar, Z., Loher, D., Frölicher, T. L., and Plattner, G-K. 2012. Rapid progression of ocean acidification in the California Current System. Science, 337: 220– 223. Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 School of Oceanography; OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry division; and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Ocean Time Series Group for the tremendous effort involved in making these datasets available. In addition, we thank the officers and crew on all spatial surveys, underway observing ships, and mooring deployments for their able assistance during field operations. Funding for JCPR was provided through a National Research Council Fellowship. Funding for NOAA/PMEL contributions to the mooring time-series, underway pCO2, and spatial survey data used in these analyses were provided by NOAA’s Climate Programme Office’s Global Carbon Cycle Programme (grants GC05-288 and GC10-102), NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Programme, and NOAA/PMEL. The Chá bă mooring off La Push, Washington, was also supported by the Murdock Charitable Trust, NANOOS (Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems, a Regional Association of NOAA’s US Integrated Ocean Observing System Programme), UW/APL, UW College of the Environment, and UW Provost’s Office. The PRISM cruises were supported by the State of Washington through UW Oceanography and APL. The NH10 mooring is funded by NOAA through NANOOS, and by NSF through CMOP (Science and Technology Center for Coastal Margin Observation and Prediction OCE-0424602). Surface ocean pCO2 data collected on the NH10 mooring were supported by NSF Chemical Oceanography OCE-0752576 awarded to BH and P.G. Strutton. I. Kaplan, T. Klinger, and three anonymous reviewers provided valuable comments on early versions of the manuscript. This is PMEL contribution number 4100. 593 594 marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Global Change Biology, 19: 1884– 1896. LaVigne, M., Hill, T. M., Sanford, E., Gaylord, B., Russell, A. D., Lenz, E. A., and Hosfelt, J. D. 2012. The elemental composition of purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) calcite and potential effects of pCO2 during early life stages. Biogeosciences, 10: 3465 –3477. Lavigne, H., and Gattuso, J. 2010. Seacarb: seawater carbonate chemistry with R. R package version 2.4.3. Lueker, T. J., Dickson, A. G., and Keeling, C. D. 2000. Ocean pCO2 calculated from dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and equations for K1 and K2: validation based on laboratory measurements of CO2 in gas and seawater at equilibrium. Marine Chemistry, 70: 105– 119. Matson, P. G., Pauline, C. Y., Sewell, M. A., and Hofmann, G. E. 2012. Development under elevated pCO2 conditions does not affect lipid utilization and protein content in early life-history stages of the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. The Biological Bulletin, 223: 312– 327. McElhany, P., and Busch, D. S. 2012. Appropriate pCO2 treatments in ocean acidification experiments. Marine Biology, 160: 1807– 1812. Melzner, F., Thomsen, J., Koeve, W., Oschlies, A., Gutowska, M. A., Bange, H. W., Hansen, H. P., et al. 2012. Future ocean acidification will be amplified by hypoxia in coastal habitats. Marine Biology, 160: 1875– 1888. Mora, C., Wei, C-L., Rollo, A., Amaro, T., Baco, A. R., Billett, D., Bopp, L., et al. 2013. Biotic and Human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century. PLoS Biology, 11: e1001682. Nienhuis, S., Palmer, A. R., and Harley, C. D. G. 2010. Elevated CO2 affects shell dissolution rate but not calcification rate in a marine snail. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 277: 2553– 2558. Orr, J. 2011. Recent and future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry. In Ocean Acidification. Ed. by J. Gattuso, and L. Hansson. Oxford University Press, New York, NY. O’Donnell, M. J., George, M. N., and Carrington, E. 2013. Mussel byssus attachment weakened by ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 3: 587 – 590. Padilla-Gamiño, J. L., Kelly, M. W., Evans, T. G., and Hofmann, G. E. 2013. Temperature and CO2 additively regulate physiology, morphology and genomic responses of larval sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 280: 20130155. Pespeni, M. H., Sanford, E., Gaylord, B., Tessa, M. H., Hosfelt, J. D., Jaris, H. K., LaVigne, M., et al. 2013. Evolutionary change during experimental ocean acidification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110: 6937 – 6942. Place, S. P., and Smith, B. W. 2012. Effects of seawater acidification on cell cycle control mechanisms in Strongylocentrotus purpuratus embryos. PLoS ONE, 7: e34068. Pörtner, H. O. 2010. Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: a matrix for integrating climate-related stressor effects in marine ecosystems. The Journal of Experimental Biology, 213: 881– 893. Pörtner, H. O. 2012. Integrating climate-related stressor effects on marine organisms: unifying principles linking molecule to ecosystem-level changes. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 470: 273– 290. Pörtner, H. O., and Farrell, A. P. 2008. Physiology and climate change. Science, 322: 690– 692. R Development Core Team. 2011. R: a Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Reum, J. C., Alin, S. R., Feely, R. A., Newton, J., Warner, M., and McElhany, P. 2014. Seasonal carbonate chemistry covariation with temperature, oxygen, and salinity in a fjord estuary: implications Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 Hales, B., Karp-Boss, L., Perlin, A., and Wheeler, P. A. 2006. Oxygen production and carbon sequestration in an upwelling coastal margin. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20: GB002517. Hales, B., Takahashi, T., and Bandstra, L. 2005. Atmospheric CO2 uptake by a coastal upwelling system. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19: GB1009. Harris, K. E., DeGrandpre, M. D., and Hales, B. 2013. Aragonite saturation state dynamics in a coastal upwelling zone. Geophysical Research Letters, 40: 2720– 2725. Harvey, B. P., Gwynn-Jones, D., and Moore, P. J. 2013. Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming. Ecology and Evolution, 3: 1016 –1030. Hauri, C., Gruber, N., Plattner, G.-K., Alin, S., Feely, R. A., Hales, B., and Wheeler, P. A. 2009. Ocean acidification in the California current system. Oceanography, 22: 60– 77. Hauri, C., Gruber, N., Vogt, M., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Lachkar, Z., Leinweber, A., et al. 2013. Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System. Biogeosciences, 10: 193 – 216. Hettinger, A., Sanford, E., Hill, T. M., Hosfelt, J. D., Russell, A. D., and Gaylord, B. 2013a. The influence of food supply on the response of Olympia oyster larvae to ocean acidification. Biogeosciences, 10: 6629– 6638. Hettinger, A., Sanford, E., Hill, T. M., Lenz, E. A., Russell, A. D., and Gaylord, B. 2013b. Larval carry-over effects from ocean acidification persist in the natural environment. Global Change Biology, 19: 3317– 3326. Hettinger, A., Sanford, E., Hill, T. M., Russell, A. D., Sato, K. N., Hoey, J., Forsch, M., et al. 2012. Persistent carry-over effects of planktonic exposure to ocean acidification in the Olympia oyster. Ecology, 93: 2758– 2768. Hickey, B. M., and Banas, N. S. 2003. Oceanography of the US Pacific Northwest Coastal Ocean and estuaries with application to coastal ecology. Estuaries, 26: 1010– 1031. Hofmann, G. E., Barry, J. P., Edmunds, P. J., Gates, R. D., Hutchins, D. A., Klinger, T., and Sewell, M. A. 2010. The effect of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms in marine ecosystems: an organism-to-ecosystem perspective. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 41: 127– 147. Hofmann, G. E., Evans, T. G., Kelly, M. W., Padilla-Gamiño, J. L., Blanchette, C. A., Washburn, L., Chan, F., et al. 2014. Exploring local adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape—studies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Biogeosciences, 11: 1053– 1064. Hofmann, G. E., Smith, J. E., Johnson, K. S., Send, U., Levin, L. A., Micheli, F., Paytan, A., et al. 2011. High-frequency dynamics of ocean pH: a multi-ecosystem comparison. PLoS ONE, 6: e28983. Hurst, T. P., Fernandez, E. R., and Mathis, J. T. 2013. Effects of ocean acidification on hatch size and larval growth of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 812– 822. Hurst, T. P., Fernandez, E. R., Mathis, J. T., Miller, J. A., Stinson, C. M., and Ahgeak, E. F. 2012. Resiliency of juvenile walleye pollock to projected levels of ocean acidification. Aquatic Biology, 17: 247– 259. Keeling, R. F., Körtzinger, A., and Gruber, N. 2010. Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2: 199– 229. Kelly, M. W., Padilla-Gamiño, J. L., and Hofmann, G. E. 2013. Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Global Change Biology, 19: 2536– 2546. Koch, M., Bowes, G., Ross, C., and Zhang, X. H. 2013. Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae. Global Change Biology, 19: 103– 132. Kroeker, K. J., Kordas, R. L., Crim, R., Hendriks, I. E., Ramajo, L., Singh, G. S., Duarte, C. M., et al. 2013. Impacts of ocean acidification on J. C. P. Reum et al. Ocean acidification and experimental design Timmins-Schiffman, E., O’donnell, M. J., Friedman, C. S., and Roberts, S. B. 2012. Elevated pCO2 causes developmental delay in early larval Pacific oysters, Crassostrea gigas. Marine Biology, 160: 1973– 1982. van Geen, A., Takesue, R. K., Goddard, J., Takahashi, T., Barth, J. A., and Smith, R. L. 2000. Carbon and nutrient dynamics during coastal upwelling off Cape Blanco, Oregon. Deep Sea Research, 47: 975 – 1002. Waldbusser, G. G., and Salisbury, J. E. 2013. Ocean acidification in the coastal zone from an organism’s perspective: multiple system parameters, frequency domains, and habitats. Annual Review of Marine Science, 6: 221 – 247. Wernberg, T., Smale, D. A., and Thomsen, M. S. 2012. A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures, patterns and problems. Global Change Biology, 18: 1491 –1498. Wittmann, A. C., and Pörtner, H-O. 2013. Sensitivities of extant animal taxa to ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 3: 995– 1001. Yu, P. C., Matson, P. G., Martz, T. R., and Hofmann, G. E. 2011. The ocean acidification seascape and its relationship to the performance of calcifying marine invertebrates: Laboratory experiments on the development of urchin larvae framed by environmentally-relevant pCO2/pH. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400: 288– 295. Handling editor: Howard Browman Downloaded from http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ at Oregon State University on April 11, 2016 for the design of ocean acidification experiments. PLoS ONE, 9: e89619. Reuter, K. E., Lotterhos, K. E., Crim, R. N., Thompson, C. A., and Harley, C. D. 2011. Elevated pCO2 increases sperm limitation and risk of polyspermy in the red sea urchin Strongylocentrotus franciscanus. Global Change Biology, 17: 163– 171. Rykaczewski, R. R., and Dunne, J. P. 2010. Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 37: GL045019. Shaw, E. C., McNeil, B. I., Tilbrook, B., Matear, R., and Bates, M. L. 2013. Anthropogenic changes to seawater buffer capacity combined with natural reef metabolism induce extreme future coral reef CO2 conditions. Global Change Biology, 19: 1632– 1641. Sunda, W. G., and Cai, W. J. 2012. Eutrophication induced CO2-acidification of subsurface coastal waters: interactive effects of temperature, salinity, and atmospheric pCO2. Environmental Science and Technology, 46: 10651– 10659. Sunday, J. M., Crim, R. N., Harley, C. D. G., and Hart, M. W. 2011. Quantifying rates of evolutionary adaptation in response to ocean acidification. PLoS ONE, 6: e22881. doi:10.1371/journal.pone. 0022881. 595