CDM reforestation activities under Kyoto Protocol,
implemented on coca cultivation degraded lands of
Peruvian Amazon:
risk or opportunity ?
MALTA 21/10/2011
Chiara A.R. Corradi
ccorradi@unitus.it
MALTA 21/10/2011
It is provided an assessment of the feasibility and the convenience of
land use change from degraded coca cultivation fields (Erythroxylum
coca) and subsistence crops into sustainable agroforestry and forestry
systems eligible under AR CDM, for the generation of carbon credits.
It is quantified the carbon sink gained by reforestation activities in the
Peruvian Amazon, considering a 20-year time horizon and the
production of temporary carbon credits
An examination of the socio-economic profitability of CDM agroforestry
systems as new sustainable business related to the production of
woody, non-woody products and the sharing of carbon credits on areas
where coca cultivation is common (although not exclusive) is done.
The questions : could AR CDM play a role in the efforts of illicit crop
eradication? If so, which solution are more suitable among the
proposed one?
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Activities in situ
1-Participative approach of local farmers
Voluntary participation and reserach of land suitable to the project
according to the national definition of forest
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2- Local institutions
Cooperativa produttori di caffè
“la Divisoria”
Local nurserie ECOselva
Università del la Selva:
University
and cooperatives
Supporto tecnico
per campionamenti: laboratori, supporto studenti etc..
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3- Site selection
1. General description (location, coordinates, surveyors)
2. Land tenure status (public, private, owner’s name, ecc)
3. Present Land Use (crops, grazing land, forest, unproductive,…)
4. Additionality (information on other funded projects)
5. Present natural vegetation cover (high, pecent of cover)
6. Soil description
7. Landform description
8. Current human pressure
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Potential sites
Land cover samplings
PURMA
SHAPUMBA
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PASTO DEGRADADO
RABO DE ZORRO : Graminoids
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PASTIZAL ALTO
LEGAL /ILLEGAL CROPLANDS
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Demonstration of Land elegibility: historical and current data
NOM_owner
location
H
A
USO_1
986
USO_1989
USO_1999
USO_2004
USO_2007
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Bravo Condezo
Ignacio
Daniel Alomias Robles
6
Cafe
Café
Abandonad
o
Carrillo Sanchez
Gamaniel
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Pasto
Pasto
Coca
Coca
Coca
Carlos Duran Victor
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Purma
Coca
Coca
Coca
Coca
Murga Espinoza
Guilde
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Coca
Coca
Coca
Coca
Coca
Rivera Severo Limo
Hermilio Valdizan
1
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Polo de Villena Niere
Felipa
Hermilio Valdizan
1
Purma
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Polo de Villena Niere
Felipa
Hermilio Valdizan
1
Purma
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Pasto
Purma
Shapumba
shapumba
Juanante Sabino Jose
AntonIO
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Cafe
Cafe
abandonad
o
Tolentino Simon
Aquilino
Hermilio Valdizan
3
Purma
Purma
Maiz
Maiz
Maiz
Cjumo Vargas
Rosalio
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Purma
Shapumba
Shapumba
Coca
Coca
Cjumo Vargas
Rosalio
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Coca
Shapumba
Shapumba
Shapumba
Shapumba
Nazario Geronimo
Santiago
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Purma
Platano
Purma/Intervenido,Purma
joven muy poco
Papaya
Pasto
Nazario Geronimo
Santiago
Daniel Alomias Robles
1
Purma
Platano
Purma/Intervenido, Purma
muy poco
Papaya
Pasto
Piñan Vargas Elias
Daniel Alomias Robles
2
Platano
Papaya
Papaya
Platano
Platano
Methodology AR-AMS0001: evolution
MALTA 21/10/2011
Title Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale A/R CDM project activities implemented on
grasslands or croplands with limited displacement of pre-project activities
Version number 6
Scale Small scale
Status Active
Valid from 17 Sep 10 onwards
Sectoral scope(s) 14
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Previous Versions
• Title: Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale afforestation and reforestation project
activities under the clean development mechanism implemented on grasslands or croplands
Version number 5
Validity Valid from 17 Oct 08 to 16 Sep 10
Requests for registration can be submitted until 17 Mar 2012 23:59:59 GMT
•Title: Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale afforestation and reforestation project
activities under the clean development mechanism implemented on grasslands or croplands
Version number 4
Validity Valid from 10 Aug 07 to 16 Oct 08
Baseline scenario
Stratification according to land use/ land cover:
- grazing lands,
- coca fields and croplands,
-degraded lands(shapumba and rabo de zorro)
• Satellite Images 1990-2000-2006
• Direct Intervews (about 200 families to get 300 ha
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Project scenario
agroforestry with cacao for flat areas
ESPECIE
Bolaina
SÍMBOLO
Nº
100
Capirona
100
Linderos
Caoba
31
Sombra
Permanent
e
Agricola
Guaba
93
Shihuahu
co
31
Moena
Alcanfor
31
Cacao
1111
TOTAL
1504
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Project Scenario:
agroforestry with coffea, on slopes
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Project Scenario:
tree plantation for wood production
Carbon Flux calculation ASSUMPTIONS
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The application of this methodology is based on two assumptions:
-the baseline net GHG removals by sinks is assumed to be zero because in the long term it is
expected a progressive degradation of the soil due to the overexploitation of lands with a
decrease of the C stock in the soil and in the living biomass. The baseline carbon stocks in the
carbons pools is constant at the level of the existing carbon stock measured at the start of the
project activity, by using a conservative approach;
- the leakage is also assumed to be zero, because it is expected that A/R CDM agroforestry
system will provide at least the same good and services of the pre-project conditions, by an
increase of the productivity of highly valuable products (coffea, cacao and wood).
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- C sinks from 5 pools, but SSC meth allows to calculate only LIVING BIOMASS
- Emissions generated by the project (CO2 e non-CO2)
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EX-ANTE calculation
tree density
Mean growth
rate
t
dm/tree/year
P/ha
Guazuma crinita
100
0,0429
0,41
0,026
Calycophylum spruceanum
100
0,0053
0,76
0,006
Inga edulis
93
0,0160
0,51
Cedrela odorata
31
0,0347
0,42
Ocotea costulata
31
0,0620
Clarisia racemosa
31
0,0347
3333
TOTAL
3719
(t/m3)
tree above
ground
biomass
increment
Scientific name
Coffea arabica
m3/tree/year
wood
density
total
biomass
increment
Total CO2
increment
C/ha/year
CO2/ha/year
3,744
1,872
6,86
0,858
0,429
1,57
2,173
1,086
3,98
0,022
0,961
0,481
1,76
0,46
0,043
1,883
0,942
3,45
0,59
0,031
1,351
0,675
2,48
0,004
0,002
0,01
5,49
20,12
The agroforestry and forestry systems
adopted have a carbon sequestration
capacity between 18,1 and 66,9 tCO2/ha/y,
according to the growth rate of the species
and the differentiated age of harvesting.
t dm/ha/year
total carbon
increment
10,97
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GROSS GHG SEQUETRATION – BASELINE - LEAKAGE =
NET ATHROP. CO2 SINK OF THE PROJECT
110000
95000
80000
65000
50000
35000
20000
5000
-10000
1
3
5
7
9
CO2 storage in the pre-project scenario
NET ANTHROPOGENIC REMOVALS BY SINKS
11
13
15
17
19
ACTUAL NET GHG REMOVALS BY SINKS
21
RESULTS
MALTA 21/10/2011
Wood biomass for domestic usei (pruning and programmed cuts)
Valuable wood at the end of rotation cycle
Coffea/cacao production
Annual crops (not acconuted in to KP estimetes)
Carbon Credit generation
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Socio-economic analysis
A socio-economical evaluation is based on the analysis of alternatives.
CDM agroforestry vs COCA crops
Other subsistence crops similarly cultivated do not provide real profit to the families, but only a
regime of low quality food, therefore are not considered for this analysis.
The cost-benefit analysis concerns 3 parallel assessments, each one evaluating a specific area of
the sustainable development.
•The economic sphere: comparison of costs and benefits of the components excluding
environmental externalities and induced effects on the general economic system.
Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit/Cost ratio (CB ratio) and internal rate of return (IRR) are
calculated for each land use scheme
•A social dimension is evaluated by comparing the different levels of employment produced by
single alternatives;
•A simple environmental analysis based on the evaluation of biodiversity and carbon stock, and
a more qualitative examination of linked factors.
MALTA 21/10/2011
The monetary value of alternatives
To corroborate in objective manner the comparison between pre-project coca cultivation
practice (H0) with the project scenario alternatives under CDM activities, are here reported the
results of the monetary approach
discount rate 10%
H0
Present
value
Agroforestry
COCA
of expenditures and
revenues
Cacao
Coffea
Wood plantation
Forestry low terrace
Wood and
non wood products
$17.909,98
$24.493,98
$25.263,81
$47.696,70
Carbon
sequestration
0
$425,98
$330,32
$444,93
Production
costs
$8.971,99
$4.306,96
$4.725,01
$2.267,66
Public funds
0
$635,44
$727,65
$501,96
If we analyze the revenues, the alternatives proposed by CDM project are more convenient that the coca
cultivation since this crop is very much demanding of soil inputs to maintain an acceptable productivities of
leaves. Coca cultivation is also penalized by the fact that the carbon credits generated by the growth of
plants (even thought they are limited) cannot be accounted
MALTA 21/10/2011
.
Investments analysis (discount rate 10%)
H0
Indicator
Coca
H1
Agroforestry
Cacao
Wood plantation
Coffea
Forestry low terrace
NPV
$8.937,99
$19.352,5
$20.538,8
$45.429,0
CB ratio
1,99
4,49
4,34
21,03
IRR
270,9
64,64%
165,47%
not calc.
The investment analysis shows that all the considered CDM alternatives are
acceptable at financial level (NPV>0).
Each one would have a very different capacity to generate profits, as shown by the
indicator Cost/Benefit ratio, being the forestry system the more profitable one.
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Social evaluation
The assessment of social development in the project area before CDM implementation (H0) and
after CDM implementation (H1).
Days of work of generated by pre-project activities (H0) and by CDM alternatives (H1)
Total
Alternatives
H0
H1
Absolute
value
Yearly average
Yearly
average
H1-H0
H1-H0
Coca cultivation
1.383
0
69
0
Agrof. Cacao
1.455
72
73
4
Agrof Coffea
1.871
488
94
24
746
-638
37
-32
Forestry low terrace
Dynamic flux of work (in absolute value) related to each alternative to coca cultivation. The
more convenient solution in term of quantity of work deliverable is the coffea plantations (94
days of work per year), whilst the system which provides minor work employment is the forestry
system (only 37 days of work). The other alternatives are comparable.
Environmental evaluation
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All the CDM models implemented contribute to higher biodiversity: six indigenous
species each model against monoculture of coca.
The implementation of the A/R CDM project activities is able to interrupt the
persistent overexploitation of the deforested lands, rather than coca field which
are monospecific cultivation and causes soil desertification.
All the CDM alternative proposed are sustainable in the long term, and all three
proposed systems are being re-establishing the tree cover and the vertical
structure of the vegetation, as well as the potential growth for epiphytes and
lianas plants which will arise the local biodiversity, in a new ecosystem
equilibrium.
Forest canopies filter the solar radiation, the rainfall, the wind speed , and
facilitate the return of local flora and fauna able to live in the several niches of
the forest layers (return of birds, insects, micro and macro mammals). The
landscape will be slowly restored and risk of soil erosion minimized, too .
Additionality of CDM project
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Despite this socio economic analysis indicate that profits achievable by
carbon credits are limited in comparison to other profits from fruit and
wood,
nevertheless the implemented CDM and the generation of tradable carbon
credits provide the additionality required by Kyoto Protocol rules for a
number of other non-financial aspects.
Analysis of Environmental and Social barriers (LULUCF guidelines).
1 -Technological barriers:
The AR CDM project fund provide planting materials that otherwise would
not be available in the project area due to the absence of local nurseries.
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2 - Barriers due to local ecological conditions
(a)The overexploitation of soil due to migratory agriculture and coca cultivations
generate the irreversible degradation of lands and impoverishment of the natural
ecosystem.
(b) The practice of slash-and-burning of existing vegetation which is cyclically
repeated by the landowners (on average every 4 years) causes the irreversible loss of
the tree cover and the substitution of forest ecosystems into impoverished and
unproductive grasslands and croplands.
3- Barriers due to social conditions: lack of skilled and/or properly
trained labour force
AR CDM project ensure long term benefits by the introduction of productive and
sustainable agroforestry, under the assistance of United Nation support (UNODC
expertise).
Local communities would never be able to convert their (illegal) activities
spontaneously because of fear of threats and lack of technical knowledge on models
of alternative development. Farmers are trained directly in their fields by UNODC
personnel.
MALTA 21/10/2011
Paper
WEAKNESS of economic/CDM analysi
Transaction costs not considered
STRENGHTS of economic/CDM analysis
Thanks!!!
Chiara A.R. Corradi
ccorradi@unitus.it