V.The ACTION Cycle
Purpose
Process
When completing the ACTION Cycle, keep the following goals in mind:
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Choose a course of action from the alternatives
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Describe the deciding officer’s rationale for choosing the alternative
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Develop an action plan for making the alternative work.
You should perform the following tasks:
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Compare how the alternatives perform on the objectives, consequence predictions, public issues, and other decision criteria
Describe the information and assumptions that are critical in making a choice
/
0
. Refined Alternatives
(Design Cycle)
f’
Alternatives
Comparison
0
Assumptions
0
Stakeholder Appraisal
Composite
0
Action
Design
0
Choice Rationale
Feedback to
Process Cycle
Implementation
c\
\
0
and Monitoring
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Planning
I
\
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\
I
\
. .
i
+Z - - Outcome
Figure 7. The ACTION Cycle of the Decision Protocol, Version 2.0.
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Products
Describe the rationale for choosing the alternative, including what is
gamed and what is foregone
f-2
Choose an alternative or construct a new action from the features of
the alternative set.
You should prepare the following products:
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A description of the selected alternative
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A narrative description of selection rationale
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A display of trade-offs among important measures and criteria.
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Initial Assessment
Questions
Evaluate the alternatives under varying assumptions about critical
information
A written plan to ensure that the action is implemented and monitored and that contingencies are provided for.
Put a check beside each statement below that is true about any choice of
action you may have already taken on the problem. For each statement
unchecked, work through the Core Question suggested or describe what
should be done to bring the action analysis “up to grade.” If you check
fewer than half of the assessment questions, work completely through the
ACTION Cycle Core Questions.
- The display of expected consequences of all alternatives is
understandable. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core
Question 3.
‘_ .:
- The benefits, costs, risks, and trade-offs that would occur with different alternatives are understandable. If this statement is not true, go
to ACTION Core Questions 3 and 9.
- The criteria for the choice of alternatives are clearly stated. If this
statement is not true, go to ACTION Core Questions 3, 4 and 7.
- The relative importance of different objectives, consequences, and
other criteria are clearly presented. If this statement is not true, go to
ACTION Core Questions 3 and 7-9.
- The rationale is candid about biases that could have influenced
the choice. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core
Questions 4-5.
- The strengths and limitations of critical assumptions and information sources are clearly described. If this statement is not true, go to
ACTION Core Questions 4-5.
- Stakeholder concerns have been addressed in the choice rationale. If
this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core Questions 2 and 7-9.
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- The rationale for choosing the alternative is understandable and
well-presented. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core
Questions 7-9.
- The alternative chosen fully addresses the objectives set out by the
team and stakeholders. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION
Core Questions 3 and 7.
- The alternative chosen is consistent with organizational policies and
plans at higher scales of authority. If this statement is not true, go to
ACTION Core Questions 7-9.
- The organization’s legal and other authorities to implement the activities chosen are clear. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core
Questions 7-9.
- The choice process relies strongly on the results of the CONSEQUENCES Cycle analysis. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION
Core Question 3.
- The choice rationale results from the process design developed by the
team and stakeholders. If this statement is not true, check PROCESS
Core Question 8 and ACTION Core Question 7.
- The choice rationale is logically defensible. If this statement is not
true, go to ACTION Core Questions 7-9.
- The choice rationale is legally defensible. If this statement is not true,
go to ACTION Core Questions 7-9.
- The selected alternative is technically, f%nancially, and logistically feasible. If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core Questions 10
and 13.
- The plans for control and accountability are clear and comprehensive.
If this statement is not true, go to ACTION Core Questions 10-16.
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ACTION
Core Questions
Alternatives ”
Comparison
(Note: Record results of ACTION Core Qistion 1 in AClYON Summary
ACTION
Core Question 1
How do the alternatives compare in meeting the objectives and
minimizing negative consequences?
Table 1.)
Summarize the consequence predictions from the CONSEQUENCES Cycle.
Review the results of CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 4 for each of the
alternatives and the overall comparison in DESIGN Summary Table 6. It is
important to include the no-action and the current or status quo
alternatives.
Compaie the performance of the alteinatives, giving each a relative rating
or ranking for each measure. Use an intuitive approach or a structured
analysis, discussion technique, weighted rating or ranking process, or
multiattribute utility analysis such as those explained in Appendix A,
Team Leader Tips and Tools, and Appendix C, For Further Reading. Identify the technique you are using.
Summarize your comparisons by providing an overall ranking and describing the pluses and minuses for each alternative relative to the others.
ACTION S ummary Table 1. Alternative Ratings (ACTION Core Question 1)
Consequence Rating or Ranking
Measure
Current
Action
Vo Action
Alternative A
Objectives
Measure 1
Objectives
Measure 2
Side Effects
Measure 1
Side Effects
Measure 2
Overall ranking
for the
alternative
Relative
advantages
(pluses)
Relative
disadvantages
(minuses)
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Wernative B
Combined or
Hybrid
Alternative
Highest
RatedRanked
Alternative for
Measure
Assumptions
ACTION
Core Question 2
(Note: Record results of your discussions on ACTION Core Questions 24 in
ACTION Summary Table 2.)
What are the most critical assumptions in your comparison?
Describe the most critical factors or information in the comparison above.
These can be assumptions about measures, alternatives, stakeholder perceptions, or other elements of the analysis. Cycle back to the DESIGN and
CONSEQUENCES summary table results, if necessary.
What did you assume about each of these factors?
ACTION
Core Question 3
How would your ranking of the alternatives change if the assumptions
were different?
Indicate which of the assumptions above are the most uncertain. For
each assumption, describe your confidence (certainty) level (0 = no confidence to 10 = highest confidence).
For the most uncertain and critical assumptions above, assume that the
opposite or drastically different conditions will materialize. Describe how
your ranking of the alternatives would differ under these different
conditions. This is called sensitivity analysis.
ACTION
Core Question 4
What additional information will you (or the deciding officer) need to
more fully compare the alternatives and choose one?
ACTION Summary Table 2. Assumptions for Choice (ACTION Core Questions 24)
Assumption
(A-2)
Confidence Level
(0 to 70) (A-3)
Opposing
Assumption
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(A-3)
Alternative Ranking
Under Opposing
Assumption (A-3)
Information
(A-4)
Needs
-:
Stakeholder
Appraisal
(Note: Record results of ACYlYON Core Question 5 in AC77ON Summarg
Table 3.)
ACTION
Core Question 5
How will stakeholders respond to the alternatives?
.
For each alternative. describe stakeholders and whether, in your opinion,
they would support it, oppose it. or be neutral. Describe what you think
are the reasons for their views.
ACTION Summary Table 3. Stakeholder Responses (ACTION Core Question 5)
Stakeholder
Stakeholder
Stakeholder 1
Stakeholder 2
Overall “net”
view of the
alternative
Current
Action
Responses
No Action
Expected (Support/Neutral/Oppose)
and Reasons
Alternative A
A/t erna tive B
-I
Combined or
Highest
Hybrid
Rated/Ranked
Alternative (A-6) Alternative for
Stakeholder
Composite Action
Design
(Note: Record results of AC7YON Core Question 6 in ACTION Summary
Table 4 below.)
ACTION
How might you combine features of the alternatives into an action
that would outperform the existing alternatives?
Core Question 6
This same question was asked of the analysis team in the DESIGN Cycle.
The version here gives the deciding officer and the team a second opportunity to refashion a more robust alternative after a closer look at all the
objectives, consequence predictions, expected stakeholder responses, and
other feedback.
.
ACTION Summary Table 4. Composite Alternative (ACTION Core Question 6)
I.
Alternative
Activity
Description
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.
.
,,_.
Choice Rationale
(Note: Record results of ACTION Core Questions 7-10 in ACTION Summary
Table 5. following ACTION Core Question 10.)
ACTION
Core Question 7
What alternative action do you prefer? Why?
Describe the alternative action that creates the most desirable and feasible
combination of changes in the situation.
Describe what makes your selected alternative better than the others. List
the factors, measures, or features that drive your preference.
ACTION
Core Question 8
What keeps you from selecting each of the other alternatives?
Explain how each alternative not selected may not perform as well as your
selected alternative on objectives, side-effects, costs, or other criteria.
For each alternative not selected, display the rationale for the nonselection
in ACTION Summary Table 5, after ACTION Core Question 10.
ACTION
Core Question 9
What do you give up (trade off) by selecting the alternative you did?
Describe the benefits or opportunities that will not be realized (trade-offs)
if you implement the preferred alternative. In other words, what do the
other alternatives offer that you will forgo in your choice of actions?
List the stakeholders who will be most affected or will respond most
strongly to these trade-offs.
ACTION
Core Question 10
What aspects of the selected action are negotiable?
List those activities, refinements, or other features of the selected altemative that you may be able to forgo or modify in negotiations with powerful
stakeholder groups or internal interests.
Describe the levels or types of activity that must be retained for the alternative to meet objectives and keep unwanted consequences to acceptable
levels.
Describe the negotiable and nonnegotiable features in ACTION Summary
Table 5.
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ACTION Summary Table 5. Rationale for Choice [ACTION
Current Action
No Action
Core Questions 7-10)
Combined or Hybrid
Alternative A
Alternative 8
(after refinement) (after refinement) Alternative
:
-
Preference (select
one or rank) (A-7)
Factors for selection
(A-7)
Nonselection
factors (A-8)
Trade-offs
selection
preferred
(foregone
with
of
(A-9)
features)
Stakeholders
affected (A-9)
Negotiable features
(for selected
alternative) (A-10)
Nonnegotiable
features (for
selected alternative
and others) (A-10)
-‘.
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lmplemen ta tion
(Note: Record results of ACTION Core Questions 1 l-l 3 in ACTION Summary
Table 6, following ACTION Core Question 13.)
ACTION
Core Question 11
What must be done to ensure that the action will be implemented?
Develop an action/implementation plan for your selected alternative. Describe the specific activity, who is responsible, deadlines, and other particulars.
ACTION
Core Question 12
What stipulations or conditions will be necessary for partners, users,
and others?
Describe the contents of any contracts, covenants, agreements, or supervision necessary to implement each of the activities.
ACTION
Core Question 13
Who are the key players in making this action accomplish its
objectives and be successful?
List the people, groups, or coalitions inside the agency who must be convinced that this action is worthwhile.
Describe how the preferred action does or does not meet their particular
needs and goals.
Describe what you can do to gain or maintain their support.
,
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ACMON Summary Table 6. Implementation Plan (ACTION Core Questions 11-13)
Activity (A- 11)
Who (A-l 1)
When (A- 11)
Stipulations
(A- 12)
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Key P/ayes
(A-13)
Support Basis
(A-13)
(Note: Record results of ACTION Core Question 14 in ACTION Summary Table
7, below.)
ACTION
Core Question 14
What could go wrong during the implementation of this action?
Develop several “worst-case” accident, mistake, or natural disaster scenarios.
Describe how you or future decision teams could respond to each of these
scenarios to achieve the original objectives or minimize negative consequences.
ACTION Summary Table 7. Worst-Case Scenarios (ACTION Core Question 14)
fey
Uncertainties
Scenario
Responses
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(Note: Record results of ACTION Core Questions 15-l 7 in ACTION Summary
Table 8, following ACTION Core Question 17.)
ACTION
Core Question 15
How will you monitor the action to see that its activities are
implemented? (implementation monitoring)
Describe the responsible parties, information to be collected, documentation requirements (including reporting milestones and timelines), and corrective actions.
ACTION
Core Question 16
How will you monitor the action to determine whether the activities
will have the consequences you predicted? (consequence monitoring)
Describe the responsible parties, information to be collected, documentation requirements (including reporting milestones and timelines), and corrective actions.
ACTION
Core Question 17
How will you document and record this action so that future teams
can learn from its successes and failures?
Imagine yourself 10 years in the future as a part of a decision team facing
a similar or related decision about this area or situation. What information
would you like to have in the administrative record and project files to help
you?
Describe how you will incorporate these needs into the action plan and into
the administrative record for this action.
ACTION Summary Table 8. Monitoring and Learning Plan (ACTION Core Questions 15-17’)
Implementation Monitoring Consequence Monitoring
(A- 15)
(A-16)
Who
Information to be collected
When
Corrective responses and
actions
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Learning Design (A- 17)
Audit Questions
Reanswer the Initial Assessment Questions in this cycle. If you are unsatisfied with any of the answers, return to the appropriate Core Questions.
See Appendix A for process suggestions.
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