BOOMING BROADBAND
for a wireless world
Lara Srivastava
ITU New Initiatives Programme
International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
Broadband Asia 2006
Shanghai (China)
21st – 23rd August 2006
Note: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership
Lara Srivastava can be contacted at lara.srivastava@itu.int
2
outline
• Important trends and tendencies
of the digital age
• Global growth of fixed broadband
• 3G: wire-free and on the go
• More of the high life: high mobility
& high speed
• Converging trajectories
• Focus Asia
2: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Policy and regulatory priorities for
wireless broadband
important trends and tendencies
3
• Innovation and transition to digital technologies
• IP (internet protocol) as a critical network enabler
• Growing value of information, especially timely
and on-the-go information: “always on”
• Speed, speed and more speed
• Mobility as an integral element of networks
• Popularity of portable ICT devices
3: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Convergence at multiple levels: technologies,
networks, devices/terminals, but also regulatory
and corporate convergence
global growth of fixed
broadband
number of economies with commercial
fixed broadband* offerings
5
from 2002 to 2006
166
145
133
113
81
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
*where broadband = combined throughput of
256 kbit/s in both directions and above
5: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
Source:
ITU
.
speed for fixed broadband
on the rise
6
number of countries & maximum speed
2003
2005
2006
35
2006
30
25
20
2005
15
10
2003
5
3584
3328
3072
2816
2560
2304
2048
1792
1536
Speed (kbps)
6: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
Source: ITU World Information Society Report
1280
1024
768
512
256
0
Higher
Number of countries
40
the top 15 economies by penetration
of fixed broadband
7
Top 15 Broadband economies, Jan 2006
Total penetration (per 100 capita), by technology
26.7
26.7%
Iceland
Korea (Rep.)
25.
Netherlands
25.
3
25.
0
23.4
Denmark
Hong Kong, China
Switzerland
23.1
22.5
Finland
21.9
Norway
Canada
0
20.
Sweden
Taiwan, China
Belgium
Israel
DSL
17.7
Cable
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
7: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
30
© ITU
Source: ITU
Other
16.
United States
3G: wire-free and on the go
more countries are deploying IMT-2000
9
(i.e. CDMA 2000 1x & W-CDMA)
Number of countries with
commercial IMT-2000 services
78
68
41
18
1
2000
4
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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© ITU
Source: ITU
IMT-2000:
W-CDMA, CDMA 2000 1x, CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO
10
• IMT-2000 Subscribers:
– 324 million “IMT-2000” users in total in March 2006
• A head start for CDMA 2000?
– CDMA2000 1x seems to have a
head start on W-CDMA for now
– CDMA 2000 1x was a more natural shift
from 2G cdmaOne - the jump from GSM to
W-CDMA was a more substantial upgrade
– another reason cited is the high licensing
fees for 3G in Europe (UMTS)
• Classification:
– Although ITU includes CDMA2000 in the IMT-2000 family, it can be
said that it is more appropriate to classify CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO
when talking about mobile broadband
–
–
–
–
W-CDMA: Average 250-300 kbit/s, theoretical 2 Mbit/s
W-CDMA HSDPA: Average 2 Mbit/s, theoretical 14 Mbit/s
CDMA 2000 1x: Average 60-100 kbit/s, theoretical 153 kbit/s
CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO: Average 400-800 kbit/s, theoretical 2.4 Mbit/s
10: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Speeds:
11
Source: NGMN White Paper - T-Mobile, Vodafone, Sprint Nextel, KPN, Orange (March 2006)
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© ITU
next-generation mobile networks (NGMN)
12
growth in EV-DO and W-CDMA
100
Total (March 2006):
86.2 million
90
CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO
80
W-CDMA
30
70
60
24
56
50
18
47
40
16
34
14
30
29
12
20
10
17
8
11
Mar-06
Dec-05
Sep-05
Jun-05
Mar-05
Mar-04
7
Dec-04
4
2
Jun-04
3
Dec-03
1
2
Jun-03
Mar-03
1
Sep-03
6
4
3
Sep-04
10
0
24
12: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
Source: ITU, adapted from 3G today and CDG
as high-speed mobile networks are
deployed, services will diversify
13
e.g. on mobile phones:
• on the go information and web
browsing
• audio/video streaming
(e.g. mobile TV)
• audio/video download
(e.g. mobile TV on demand)
• video telephony
• ticketing and transaction
services
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© ITU
• multiplayer gaming
growth drivers, latency & bandwidth
requirements
14
14: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
Source: WINNER,, Final usage scenarios. 30/06/2005;“Parameters for Tele-traffic Characterization in enhanced UMTS2” and University of Beira,
Portugal, 2003, as cited by Siemens, NGMN Technical White Paper, 2006
15
Source: Nokia, as cited by UMTS Forum
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© ITU
as the cost per MB drops…
16
….who benefits?
price of mobile services hasn’t decreased
at same rate as broadband, internet
70
Average cost of ICT
usage worldwide, in
US$, 2003-2005
broadband
($/100 kbps) 40%
cheap-to-produce services, e.g. SMS,
priced well-above cost in some regions
60
20 hours'
Internet access
25%
40
30
Average price of
an SMS,
in US$, 2005
mobile basket
23%
0.16
0.14
0.10
20
0.07
10
0.06
0
2003 2005
2003 2005
2003 2005
Americas
Asia
Africa
Europe
Source: ITU World Information Society Report
16: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
Oceania
© ITU
Cost (USD)
50
more of the high-life:
high-mobility & high-speed
18
wanting it all…
high-mobility
- 2G, e.g. GSM
- 2.5G
- early 3G
Body/personal
area networks
e.g .
- RFID
- Zigbee
3G +
Mobile-Fi?
WiMax ?
- xDSL
- FTTH
- Wi-Fi
still largely
untapped
markets !
highspeed
low-mobility
18: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
lowspeed
Mobile
Broadband:
higher mobility, lower speed
been there, done that…
19
• Early 2G
– dominated by GSM
– characterized by fragmented market
– some information mobility, but
limited in most markets
– Success story: Japan’s i-mode &
similar services
– Not such a success story: Early WAP in
europe
– messaging goes mobile and multimedia
– increased accessibility, through e.g. services
like Vodafone live!
– still limited in take-up
19: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• 2G -> 2.5G -> early 3G
higher speed, lower mobility
we know all about it…
20
• “classic broadband” offers no mobility but
high speeds
– Fibre technologies - FTTx
– Digital subscriber lines - xDSL
– Cable modem technologies
• IEEE’s Wi-Fi (Wireless Fidelity), 802.11
series, offers limited mobility:
– Range is limited (100m) but speed is high
(up to 11 Mbit/s).
– Mostly for stationary environments
– Advantages:
– Disadvantages: no dedicated bandwidth, security
concerns, high power consumption
– User base (2004): 115 million users worldwide, est.
20: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• unlicensed spectrum
• easy to deploy
higher speed, higher mobility:
21
…underlying the wireless broadband revolution
• enhanced 3G
– HSDPA, 3G LTE,
– CDMA 2000 1x EV-DV, EV-DO
– NGMN…
• 802.16e or WiMax
– (Worldwide Interoperability for
Microwave access)
– higher capacity: max 70
Mbit/s over 50 km
– Type of WMAN
• 802.20 also known as “Mobile-Fi”
21: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
– Optimized for high-mobility
environments
end-user devices: the mobile still
dominates – why?
22
• Economies of scale
– the relatively lower cost allows
– 2 billion and growing
• Wide Appeal
– young, old, male, female,
rich, poor…
• Size and portability
– Smaller than the laptop
• Emotional Attachment
– many can’t leave home without it
• Fashion and identity
– Accessory, personal diary, status symbol
– At day, at night, standing still, on the move
22: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Physical proximity
converging trajectories…
24
the original vision of IMT-2000…
Services and
Applications
New Radio
Interface
download channel
return channel
e.g. cellular
Digital
Broadcast
Wireline
xDSL
IP based
Core Network
Cellular
2nd gen.
IMT-2000
WLAN
type
other
entities
Source: ITU WP 8F
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© ITU
Short Range
Connectivity
25
Source: MIC
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© ITU
… first demonstrated a “converged” objective
untapped markets,
untapped revenue opportunities
26
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© ITU
but it would seem that no one player can go it alone…
focus Asia
Asia-pacific region leads the pack in
both mobile and broadband
28
Source: ITU
28: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
Source: ITU
4 out of top 10 markets by total fixed
broadband subscribers are in Asia
[Source: In-Stat]
Taiwan, C hina
Italy
C anada
16.5
8.2
T op 10 broadband
m arkets worldwide,
m subscribers, 2004
2005
17.7
U.K.
Total cable
10.5
Other
France
11.2
Germany
8.4
Korea (Rep.)
Total D SL
24.9
14.9
Japan
• in terms of revenues,
2.0
C hina
market leaders are
U.S.
Japan & South Korea,
0
10
20
30
contributing more than
Millions
60% of total revenue in
2005, followed by Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and
Singapore, contributing around 15%
29: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
Per 100
inhabitants
12.8
40
© ITU
• total Asia-Pacific
broadband
access service market
revenue, which was
US $20.7 billion in
2005, will reach US
$55.1 billion by 2011
29
Source: ITU
30: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
30
© ITU
and the region also leads in
(fixed) broadband affordability
the wireless broadband market in asia
31
• the wireless broadband market in Asia is of course relatively
small compared to e.g. the low-speed mobile cellular market
(2G, 2.5G)
• however, both CDMA2000 1x EV-DO and W-CDMA were first
launched in Asia, and as such Asia has a head-start in the
mobile broadband space
• WLAN, like in many regions, is not growing as fast as was
originally expected
–
–
–
–
40,000 public hotspots in Asia/Pacific at year end 2004
Lack of viable business models
Focused on business user and high-data usage
Major driving factors for WLAN is government support, e.g. in the
case of Korea (Seoul) and Taiwan (Taipei)
– But services similar to WiMAX, like WiBro in Korea, have already
made their appearance
31: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Commercial WiMAX services are expected to be deployed
2007
revenue potential and challenges
for WiMAX
32
• Revenue in the WiMAX services market in 12 major
Asia Pacific economies (Soure: Frost & Sullivan), is
forecasted to total USD 165.3 million by end-2006,
and could reach USD 5.4 billion in 2010.
– uncertain regulatory conditions;
– strong commitment to 3G investments;
– the “wait and see” approach adopted by many
incumbent service providers in the region, in order
to avoid duplication of existing broadband access
infrastructure
32: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Like in many other regions, economies in the region
still face challenges in WiMAX deployment, due to,
inter alia:
wait & see…
despite possibly lower roll-out costs
33
• cost for deploying wireless broadband has
been found to be lower in some regions
than fixed broadband
• e.g. a June 2006 report commissioned by
Australian Competition and Consumer
Commission (ACCC)
Cost of infrastructure pe r subscribe r, in AUD, 2006
concludes
that both 3G HSDPA
& WiMAX
are cheaper options
than copper
for broadband,
even in rural areas,
based on Telstra’s
ULL prices
which are
Wimax
HSPDA
Coppe r unbundle d
local loop
Source: ACCC
claimed to reflect
underlying costs
100
Rural Areas (band 3)
Rem ote Areas (band 4)
53
52
40
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27
© ITU
25
policy and regulatory priorities
for wireless broadband
a favourable and
enabling environment is required
35
• Market liberalisation
– Reducing barriers to entry, through market liberalization
– competition from new entrants to spur investment and
innovation
• Competition
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© ITU
– A level-playing field should be ensured in
which market forces can operate effectively
– no players should be driven out by
anti-competitive conduct
– no class of operators should be unduly
favoured or penalized
– In many economies, sector-specific regulation is
giving way to greater reliance on gen. competition policy
– Access on fair terms and prices to all locations
a favourable & enabling environment
is required (cont’d)
36
• Predictable, transparent, consistent regulatory
framework
– regulators and policy-makers should outline as clearly as possible
their regulatory priorities and regime
– An approach based on technological neutrality should be fostered
– An assessment of availability based on market forces, in order to
determine then need of government initiatives
– provision of complementary government initiatives, e.g. wireless
cities
• Adequate investment in infrastructure, services
and applications
• Targeted research & development programmes
36: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• Public-private partnerships
… but some specific challenges for wireless
broadband must also be addressed
37
• spectrum allocation
– e.g. 3.5GHz band is the most widely available band allocated
for broadband wireless access worldwide, except for US - but
3.5 GHz is mainly allocated to fixed services
• so regulators are starting to revise their positions to allow
portable services in a first step towards allowing full mobility at
3.5GHz
– line between 3G/4G environments and broadband wireless
access is blurring and is set to converge
– availability of new bands?
• licensing regimes
– how to license future services? Who will provide services like
WiMax:
mobile operators or fixed line providers? And why?
• media convergence
37: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
– how to regulate same services, different platforms (e.g. IPTV)
38
moreover, catering for a changing user…
As such, today’s user is evolving from:
• from user to developer
• from observer to creator
• from follower to leader
• from consumer to
producer
• from audience to player
• from reader to storyteller
• from a passive listener to
active speaker
• from subject to participant
38: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
The World Summit on the Information Society talked
about a society in which everyone anywhere can
“create, share, access and distribute information”
…may mean a re-visiting of content
and identity management
39
• affordability and availability
• content issues
– intellectual property rights and DRM
– avoidance of Illegal/harmful content
• data protection
– security and trust
– privacy concerns (including freedom from interference)
– Who am I? Who are you? How can I be sure?
– Rules for minimizing disclosure and allowing for anonymity
and pseudonymity
– thwarting fraud and cybercrimes like identity theft
39: Lara Srivastava - Broadband Asia 06
© ITU
• digital identity management
a wireless world:
concluding remarks
ITU Internet Reports 2005
THE INTERNET OF THINGS
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