The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2005-06
in Perspective*
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
Timberline Lodge, Sept 19-22, 2006
Photos: Larry Geddis, Erskine Wood
Water Year
Precipitation
Full Year
2004-2005
2004 Sep 16
2005 Apr 13
2005 Apr 10
2005 Apr 13
February 25, 2006 2100 GMT Visible Image
Water Year
Precipitation
Through
March 24
2006
Winter 2006
March 2006
Texas 20060312
Texas 20060312
March 2006
March 2006
Statewide Arizona Winter Precipitation. October thru April. 1895-2006.
Mt Waialeale
April 2006
May 2006
Spring 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
Monsoon train to lower Great Lakes. 2006 August 19 0415 GMT
90 days ending 2006 September 16
McKnight Cabin Snotel Site Southwest New Mexico 9240 ft
Number of Wildland Fires
Source: NIFC. 2006 thru Sep 17.
No of Fires
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/stats/wildlandfirestats.html
Wildland Fires. Acres Burned.
Source: NIFC. 2006 thru Sep 17.
Acres Burned
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/stats/wildlandfirestats.html
Oct 2005
Jan 2006
Nov 2005
Feb 2006
700 mb Temperature Departures
Dec 2005
Mar 2006
Water Year
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
1 Oct 2005
Through
31 Mar 2006
Apr 2006
Jul 2006
May 2006
Aug 2006
700 mb Temperature Departures
Jun 2006
Sep 2006
Warm Season
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
1 Apr 2006
Through
31 Aug 2006
Water Year
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
1 Oct 2005
Through
31 Aug 2006
Greenland is regaining its original name
1996-2000: Widespread glacier acceleration below latitude 66 N
2000-2005: Glacier acceleration extended to latitude 70 N
Ice mass loss from glacial flow:
1966: 63 cubic kilometers
2005: 162 cubic kilometers
… plus increased ice melting plus snow accumulation
Waleed Abdalati, GSFC
1996: 96 cubic kilometers total loss of mass
2005: 220 cubic kilometers total loss of mass
Where?
1996-2000: southeast Greenland
2000-2005: plus central east and west Greenland
Eric Eignot (JPL) and Pannir Kanagaratnam (U Kansas), Science, in press Feb 2006
Water Year
Temperature
Departure
Surface
Reanalysis
1 Oct 2005
through
31 March 2006
Warm Season
Temperature
Departure
Surface
Reanalysis
1 Apr 2006
through
31 Aug 2006
Water Year
Temperature
Departure
Surface
Reanalysis
1 Oct 2005
through
31 August 2006
Oct 2005
Nov 2005
Dec 2005
Jan 2006
Feb 2006
Mar 2006
Apr 2006
May 2006
Jul 2006
Aug 2006
Jun 2006
Sep 28, 1999
Sep 24, 2002
Sep 26, 2000
Sep 30, 2003
Sep 25, 2001
Sep 21, 2004
Sep 27, 2005
Sep 12, 2006
Upper Colorado River Water Year Precipitation.
October through September. Units: Inches.
Data from PRISM. Blue: annual. Red: 11-yr mean.
Water Year Precipitation ( inches )
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Water Year ( End Year )
WRCC CEFA
NOAA Westmap
Lake Powell Storage Through September 14, 2006
As of Feb 1 : Snowpack 105 pct, Precip 110 pct, fcst inflow Apr-Jul 105 %
As of Sep 1: inflow Apr-Jul 67 %
49 % full
Min: 33 %
20050408
Lake Powell Elevation Through September 14, 2006
Inflows since 2000: 62 59 25 52 51 109 est 72 %
Peak July 14, 2005: 3608.4’, -92’,
Peak June 22, 2006: 3610.9’, -89’, Sep 26: 3602.07’
www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html
Now –0.75 inches per day
Min 20050408
3555.1’ -144.9’
Upper Colorado Basin Mean Annual Temperature.
Units: Degrees F. Annual: red. 11-year running mean: blue
Data from PRISM: 1895-2005.
48
Annual Temperature ( F )
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Calendar Year
WRCC / CEFA
NOAA Westmap
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
55
Colorado River Basin Mean Annual Temperature.
Units: Degrees F. Annual: red. 11-year running mean: blue
Data from PRISM: 1895-2005.
54
53
52
51
50
49
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
WRCC / CEFA
NOAA Westmap
Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean.
Units: Deg F. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Jan 2006.
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Annual Mean Temperatures, 2000-2005.
Departures from 1895-2000 Mean.
Non-standardized. Units: Degrees F.
Normalized (standard deviations).
The West dominates recent U.S. warming.
History of
Atmospheric
Forcings
Simulated and
Observed
Temperatures
(Global Mean)
Hansen et al, 2005. Earth's
energy imbalance:
Confirmation and implications.
Science, 308, 1431.
Summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) Mean Temperatures, 2000-2006.
Departures from 1895-2000 Mean.
Non-standardized. Units: Degrees F.
Normalized (standard deviations).
The West dominates recent U.S. warming.
Autumn (Sep-Oct-Nov) Mean Temperatures, 2000-2005.
Departures from 1895-2000 Mean.
Non-standardized. Units: Degrees F.
Normalized (standard deviations).
The West dominates recent U.S. warming.
Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) Mean Temperatures, 1999/2000-2005/2006.
Departures from 1895-2000 Mean.
Non-standardized. Units: Degrees F.
Normalized (standard deviations).
The West dominates recent U.S. warming.
Spring (Mar-Apr-May) Mean Temperatures, 2000-2006.
Departures from 1895-2000 Mean.
Non-standardized. Units: Degrees F.
Normalized (standard deviations).
The West dominates recent U.S. warming.
October-March Precipitation (inches)
Western United States (11 states) October-March Precipitation.
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. 112 Winters, 1895-2006.
Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Apr 2006.
16
14
12
10
8
6
individual winters
11-year running mean
4
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
End Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Water Year Precipitation ( inches )
Western United States (11 states) Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation.
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean.
Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Apr 2006.
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
End Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Annual Temperature. Western U.S. 1948-2005.
700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Oct-Mar Temperature. Western U.S.
1948/9-2005/6. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Mar-Apr-May Temperature. Western U.S.
1948-2006. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Jun-Jul-Aug Temperature. Western U.S.
1948-2006. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Jun - Jul Temperature. Western U.S.
1948-2006. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Grids.
Reanalysis
Resolution:
Global
Regional
(slightly smaller;
pixel resolution)
Desired
Resolution
About 1 km
Sierra Jun - Jul 700 mb Temp (10,000 ft)
1C
Crater Lake Park HQ and Rim Visitor Center.
Rim Station
Climate Station
Crater Lake Park HQ and Visitor Center and Climate Station.
Crater Lake, Oregon. Total Winter Snowfall ( July thru June ).
Blue: Individual winters. Red: 5-year running mean.
900
Snowfall ( inches )
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
End Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional
Climate Center
Crater Lake Park Headquarters. Oct-Sep Water Year Precipitation.
Data thru Sept 16, 2006.
Precipitation ( inches )
100
90
80
70
66.85"
60
50
40
30
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Ending Year
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional
Climate Center
(cm above 6175')
Surface Water Elevation
100
Crater Lake Water Elevation (Adjusted to Sept 30)
Referenced to Nominal Elevation of 6175 feet MSL
(2006 is thru Sep 15 plus estimated drop of 7.3 cm.)
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
100
Crater Lake Annual Water Level Change, Cleetwood Cove.
Park Headquarters Oct-Sept Precipitation, 1961 - 2003.
80
Lake Level Change ( cm )
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
LLC = 1.399 * PHQ - 235.82
N = 42
-60
r = 0.960
2
r = 0.921
-80
-100
-120
Mean =
168.6
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Park Headquarters Precipitation ( cm )
240
Monthly Evaporation Ranges, 1950-1996.
Monthly Evaporation (cm)
16.0
Maximum
14.0
Ave Plus One Std Dev
12.0
10.0
Monthly Average
8.0
Ave Minus One Std Dev
6.0
4.0
Minimum
2.0
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Crater Lake Park Headquarters Annual Precipitation (cm)
Annual Evaporation, Adams formulation (cm)
250
Evaporation and Precipitation (cm)
Precip
200
150
100
Evap
50
1950
1960
Precip std dev is 4.6 x
Evap std dev
1970
1980
Water Year (Ending Year)
1990
2000
Ave Annual Temperature ( F )
43
Crater Lake, Oregon. Park HQ. Mean Annual Temperature.
Red: Annual. Blue: 11-year running mean.
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Ending Year
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional
Climate Center
Crater Lake, Oregon. Park HQ. Mean Winter Temperature (DJF).
Red: Individual winters. Blue: 11-Year running mean.
32
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
1930
1940
1950
Average Summer Temperature ( F )
Crater Lake Temp
1960
1970
1980
1990
Ending Year
2000
2010
Ending Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Summer
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
1930
Western Regional
Climate Center
Crater Lake, Oregon. Park HQ. Mean Autumn Temperature (SON).
Red: Individual autumns. Blue: 11-year running mean.
47
Crater Lake, Oregon. Park HQ. Mean Summer Temperature (JJA).
Red: Individual summers. Blue: 11-year running mean.
58
Mean Autumn Temperature ( F )
Winter Temperature ( F )
Average Spring Temperature ( F )
Winter
31
Crater Lake, Oregon. Park HQ. Mean Spring Temperature (MAM).
Red: Individual springs. Blue: 11-year running mean.
43
42
Spring
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990 2000
2010
Autumn
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Ending Year
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional
Climate Center
34
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Ending Year
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional
Climate Center
Crater Lake 850 mb Temp Winter
Crater Lake 850 mb Temp Summer
Crater Lake 850 mb Temp Spring
Crater Lake 850 mb Temp Autumn
Crater Lake 850 mb Temp Annual
Crater Lake 700 mb Temp Winter
Crater Lake 700 mb Temp Summer
Crater Lake 700 mb Temp Spring
Crater Lake 700 mb Temp Autumn
Crater Lake 700 mb Temp Annual
Mt Hood 700 mb Temp Winter
Mt Hood 700 mb Temp Summer
Mt Hood 700 mb Temp Spring
Mt Hood 700 mb Temp Autumn
Mt Hood 700 mb Temp Annual
Mt Hood 850 mb Temp Winter
Mt Hood 850 mb Temp Summer
Mt Hood 850 mb Temp spring
Mt Hood 850 mb Temp Autumn
Mt Hood 850 mb Temp Annual
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C ) 2006 Mar 12-18
Updated thru 2006 Sept 6
Courtesy Klaus Wolter & Mike Timlin,
Climate Diagnostics Center
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through Sept 3-9, 2006
Climate Forecast System (CFS) ensembles starting Sun Sep 17, 2006
3-Month
Temperature Outlooks
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006
Thru
Sep-Oct-Nov 2007
3-Month
Precipitation Outlooks
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006
Thru
Sep-Oct-Nov 2007
2005 August 13 1900 GMT
2005 August 11 1700 GMT
Whale Point (600 ft) and Highlands Peak (2500 ft), Big Sur. 2 miles apart.
Whale Point
600 ft
Highlands Peak
2500 ft
2006 July 12 MODIS
Whale Point, Big Sur, 600 ft, 10-min Temperature, 12 days ending 2006 Sept 16.
Highlands Pk, Big Sur, 2470 ft, 10-min Temperature, 12 days ending 2006 Sept 16.
Whale Point, Big Sur, 600 ft, 10-min Temperature, 2 days ending 2006 Sep 12.
Highlands Pk, Big Sur, 2470 ft, 10-min Temperature, 2 days ending 2006 Sep 12.
Whale Point, Big Sur, 600 ft, 10-min Temperature, 150 days ending 2006 Sept 16.
Highlands Pk, Big Sur, 2470 ft, 10-min Temperature, 150 days ending 2006 Sept 16.
Whale Point, Big Sur, 600 ft, 10-min Temperature, July 2006 Heat Wave.
Highlands Pk, Big Sur, 2470 ft, 10-min Temperature, July 2006 Heat Wave.
Mt Warren
Mt Warren
Mt Warren (12327 ft) Toward South. July 2000.
Warren Bench Rd ends here
Our highest pine sites here
Deer Creek Canyon
To Mono Lake
Lundy Canyon
View looking south up Deer Cr (NB: beautiful Pleistocene Rock Glacial cyn), a tributary
of Lundy Cyn (note also limber pines at left foreslope (one of our sites). 7/00
Photo: Connie Millar
Mt Warren Toward NE
Mt Warren Anemometer
Mt Warren Summit Station 12,327 ft
Mt Warren Toward North
Mt Warren Toward West
Mt Warren Toward South
Mt Warren Toward East
Mt Warren Mean 10-minute Wind Speed (mph), 40 days ending 2006 Sept 17.
Mt Warren Mean 10-minute Max Wind Gust (mph), 40 days ending 2006 Sept 17.
Mt Warren Mean 10-minute Temperature (F), 40 days ending 2006 Sept 17.
P.S.
If you need room service,
be careful who you let in.
Thank You.